Translating the Physics of Snowfall to Radar-Based Validation of GPM
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Presented are four winter seasons of data from an enhanced precipitation instrument suite based at the National Weather Service (NWS) Office in Marquette (MQT), Michigan (250–500 cm of annual snow accumulation). In 2014 the site was augmented with a Micro Rain Radar (MRR) and a Precipitation Imaging Package (PIP). MRR observations are utilized to partition large-scale synoptically driven (deep)and surface-forced (shallow) snow events. Coincident PIP and NWS MQT meteorological surface observations illustrate different characteristics with respect to snow event category. Shallow snow events are often extremely shallow, with MRR-indicated precipitation heights of less than 1500 m above ground level. Large vertical reflectivity gradients indicate efficient particle growth, and increased boundary layer turbulence inferred from observations of spectral width implies increased aggregation in shallow snow events. Shallow snow events occur 2 times as often as deep events; however, both categories contribute approximately equally to estimated annual accumulation. PIP measurements reveal distinct regime-dependent snow microphysical differences, with shallow snow events having broader particle size distributions and comparatively fewer small particles and deep snow events having narrower particle size distributions and comparatively more small particles. In addition, coincident surface meteorological measurements indicate that most shallow snow events are associated with surface winds originating from the northwest (over Lake Superior), cold temperatures, and relatively high surface pressures, which are characteristics that are consistent with cold-air outbreaks. Deep snow events have meteorologically distinct conditions that are accordant with midlatitude cyclones and frontal structures, with mostly southwest surface winds, warmer temperatures approaching freezing, and lower surface pressures.
Following the 2014 launch of the Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM), an unprecedented combination of coincident active and passive microwave observations are available for state of the art precipitation retrieval. The GPM Combined Algorithm forms the backbone of this effort, optimizing geophysical variables for agreement with the multi-spectral information content. Combined retrievals are then utilized, along with a radiative transfer model, as a database applied for retrievals across a constellation of passive microwave radiometers of varying frequencies and viewing geometries. By keeping such retrievals related through the transfer standard of the combined algorithm, level 3 products such as the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) are able to provide consistent global products for users at the higher temporal resolution required for hydrological applications on the global scale. In the current version of the combined product, precipitation retrievals are carried out only in the presence of a signal from the active radar. As a result, light precipitation and drizzle below the threshold of radar sensitivity are not included in any of the products down the chain from the constellation to IMERG. In this work, the effects of enhancing the retrievals with an optimal estimation-type (OE) water vapor and cloud retrieval using the passive observations are explored over the Southern Ocean on a regional scale. Non-convergence of the OE in areas with no detectable radar signal is used to identify areas with high probability of light precipitation and drizzle. Microphysical scale characterization of the light precipitation will be explored using information derived from the higher sensitivity CloudSat mission along with model information to identify and associate the related atmospheric state and dynamics. This is a physically-based approach requiring radiometric consistency with all available multi-spectral observations. Retrieved drizzle can then be included in the constellation databases continuing across all scales through to the level 3 products. The technique, successfully demonstrated for the Southern Ocean, can be easily adapted for light precipitation retrieval over other areas and surfaces leading to a global climatology of light precipitation.
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Falling snow is a key component of the Earth’s water cycle, and space-based observations provide the best current capability to evaluate it globally. The Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) on board CloudSat is sensitive to snowfall, and other satellite missions and climatological models have used snowfall properties measured by it for evaluating and comparing against their snowfall products. Since a battery anomaly in 2011, the CPR has operated in a Daylight-Only Operations (DO-Op) mode, in which it makes measurements primarily during only the daylit portion of its orbit. This work provides estimates of biases inherent in global snowfall amounts derived from CPR measurements due to this shift to DO-Op mode. We use CloudSat’s snowfall measurements during its Full Operations (Full-Op) period prior to the battery anomaly to evaluate the impact of the DO-Op mode sampling. For multi-year global mean values, the snowfall fraction during DO-Op changes by −10.16% and the mean snowfall rate changes by −8.21% compared with Full-Op. These changes are driven by the changes in sampling in DO-Op and are very little influenced by changes in meteorology between the Full-Op and DO-Op periods. The results highlight the need to sample consistently with the CloudSat observations or to adjust snowfall estimates derived from CloudSat when using DO-Op data to evaluate other precipitation products.
Falling snow is a key component for the global atmospheric, hydrological and energy cycles, and its retrieval from space-based observations represents the best current capability to evaluate it globally. The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission Core Observatory, launched in 2014, together with its constellation sensors, can provide quasi-global precipitation estimates every 30 minutes (for level 3 products). Evaluation and validation efforts for such products are crucial, and for global evaluations, one of the most suitable instruments is the Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) on board CloudSat, which is sensitive to light rain and falling snow. However, due to a battery anomaly in 2011, during its period of overlapping observations with GPM the CPR has operated in a Daylight Only Operations mode (DO-Op) in which it makes measurements primarily during only the daylit portion of its orbit. The goal of this work is to estimate biases inherent in global snowfall amounts derived from CPR measurements due to this shift to DO-Op mode. We use CloudSat's snowfall measurements during its Full Operations (Full-Op) period from 2006 to 2010 to evaluate the impact DO-Op mode would have had during this period. Results indicate that omitting the nocturnal component of the diurnal cycle of snowfall has nonnegligible impact on snowfall amounts in some regions. The lack of nighttime data during DO-Op biases the latitudinally averaged mean snowfall rates as well as some regional values. Hemispheric differences in bias may be due to more pronounced diurnal variability in the northern hemisphere owing to more prevalent land surface versus the southern hemisphere. The results highlight the need to sample consistently with the CloudSat observations or to adjust snowfall estimates derived from CloudSat when using DO-Op data to evaluate other precipitation products.
This study focuses on the ability of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) passive microwave sensors to detect and provide quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) for extreme lake-effect snowfall events over the United States lower Great Lakes region. GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) high frequency channels can clearly detect intense shallow convective snowfall events. However, GMI Goddard PROfiling (GPROF) QPE retrievals produce inconsistent results when compared against the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) ground-based radar reference dataset. While GPROF retrievals adequately capture intense snowfall rates and spatial patterns of one event, GPROF systematically underestimates intense snowfall rates in another event. Furthermore, GPROF produces abundant light snowfall rates that do not conform with MRMS observations. Ad-hoc precipitation rate thresholds are suggested to partially mitigate GPROF’s overproduction of light snowfall rates. The sensitivity and retrieval efficiency of GPROF to key parameters (2-meter temperature, total precipitable water, and background surface type) used to constrain the GPROF a-priori retrieval database are investigated. Results demonstrate that typical lake-effect snow environmental and surface conditions, especially coastal surfaces, are underpopulated in the database and adversely affect GPROF retrievals. For the two presented case studies, using snow cover a-priori database in the locations of originally deemed as coastline improves retrieval. This study suggests that it is particularly important to have more accurate GPROF surface classifications and better representativeness of the a-priori databases to improve intense lake-effect snow detection and retrieval performance.
The CO2 cycle is one of the three controlling climate cycles on Mars. One aspect of the CO2 cycle that is not yet fully understood is the existence of a residual CO2 ice cap that is offset from the south pole. Previous investigations suggest that the atmosphere could control the placement of the south residual cap (e.g., Colaprete et al., 2005). These investigations show that topographically forced stationary eddies in the south during southern hemisphere winter produce colder atmospheric temperatures and increased CO2 snowfall over the hemisphere where the residual cap resides. Since precipitated CO2 ice produces higher surface albedos than directly deposited CO2 ice, it is plausible that CO2 snowfall resulting from the zonally asymmetric atmospheric circulation produces surface ice albedos high enough to maintain a residual cap only in one hemisphere. Our current work builds on these initial investigations with a version of the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model (GCM) that includes a sophisticated CO2 cloud microphysical scheme. Processes of cloud nucleation, growth, sedimentation, and radiative effects are accounted for. Simulated results thus far agree well with the Colaprete et al. study—the zonally asymmetric nature of the atmospheric circulation produces enhanced snowfall over the residual cap hemisphere throughout much of the winter season. However, the predicted snowfall patterns vary significantly with season throughout the cap growth and recession phases. We will present a detailed analysis of the seasonal evolution of the predicted atmospheric circulation and snowfall patterns to more fully evaluate the hypothesis that the atmosphere controls the placement of the south residual cap.
Abstract Lake‐effect snow (LES) storms, characterized by heavy convective precipitation downwind of large lakes, pose significant coastal hazards with severe socioeconomic consequences in vulnerable areas. In this study, we investigate how devastating LES storms could evolve in the future by employing a storyline approach, using the LES storm that occurred over Buffalo, New York, in November 2022 as an example. Using a Pseudo‐Global Warming method with a fully three‐dimensional two‐way coupled lake‐land‐atmosphere modeling system at a cloud‐resolving 4 km resolution, we show a 14% increase in storm precipitation under the end‐century warming. This increase in precipitation is accompanied by a transition in the precipitation form from predominantly snowfall to nearly equal parts snowfall and rainfall. Through additional simulations with isolated atmospheric and lake warming, we discerned that the warmer lake contributes to increased storm precipitation through enhanced evaporation while the warmer atmosphere contributes to the increase in the storm's rainfall, at the expense of snowfall. More importantly, this shift from snowfall to rainfall was found to nearly double the area experiencing another winter hazard, Rain‐on‐Snow. Our study provides a plausible future storyline for the Buffalo LES storm, focusing on understanding the intricate interplay between atmospheric and lake warming in shaping the future dynamics of LES storms. It emphasizes the importance of accurately capturing the changing lake‐atmosphere dynamics during LES storms under future warming.
Precipitation is a major component of the hydrologic cycle and plays a significant role in the sea-ice mass balance in the polar regions. Over the Southern Ocean, precipitation is particularly uncertain due to the lack of direct observations in this remote and harsh environment. Here we demonstrate that precipitation estimates from 8 global reanalyses produce similar spatial patterns between 2000-2010, although their annual means vary by about 250 mm yr -1 (or 26 percent of the median values) and there is little similarity in their representation of interannual variability. ERA-Interim produces the smallest and CFSR produces the largest amount of precipitation overall. Rainfall and snowfall are partitioned in five reanalyses; snowfall suffers from the same issues as the total precipitation comparison, with ERA-Interim producing about 128 mm less snowfall and JRA-55 about 103 mm more rainfall compared to the other reanalyses. When compared to CloudSat-derived snowfall, these five reanalyses indicate similar spatial patterns, but differ in their magnitude. All reanalyses indicate precipitation on nearly every day of the year, with spurious values occurring on an average of about 60 days yr -1 resulting in an accumulation of about 4.5 mm yr -1 . While similarities in spatial patterns among the reanalyses suggest a convergence, the large spread in magnitudes points to issues with the background models in adequately reproducing precipitation rates, and the differences in the model physics employed. Further improvements to model physics are required to achieve confidence in precipitation rate, as well as the phase and frequency of precipitation in these products.