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NASA NTRS2009

Advances in Land Data Assimilation at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Research in land surface data assimilation has grown rapidly over the last decade. In this presentation we provide a brief overview of key research contributions by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The GSFC contributions to land assimilation primarily include the continued development and application of the Land Information System (US) and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In particular, we have developed a method to generate perturbation fields that are correlated in space, time, and across variables and that permit the flexible modeling of errors in land surface models and observations, along with an adaptive filtering approach that estimates observation and model error input parameters. A percentile-based scaling method that addresses soil moisture biases in model and observational estimates opened the path to the successful application of land data assimilation to satellite retrievals of surface soil moisture. Assimilation of AMSR-E surface soil moisture retrievals into the NASA Catchment model provided superior surface and root zone assimilation products (when validated against in situ measurements and compared to the model estimates or satellite observations alone). The multi-model capabilities of US were used to investigate the role of subsurface physics in the assimilation of surface soil moisture observations. Results indicate that the potential of surface soil moisture assimilation to improve root zone information is higher when the surface to root zone coupling is stronger. Building on this experience, GSFC leads the development of the Level 4 Surface and Root-Zone Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product for the planned NASA Soil-Moisture-Active-Passive (SMAP) mission. A key milestone was the design and execution of an Observing System Simulation Experiment that quantified the contribution of soil moisture retrievals to land data assimilation products as a function of retrieval and land model skill and yielded an estimate of the error budget for the SMAP L4_SM product. Terrestrial water storage observations from GRACE satellite system were also successfully assimilated into the NASA Catchment model and provided improved estimates of groundwater variability when compared to the model estimates alone. Moreover, satellite-based land surface temperature (LST) observations from the ISCCP archive were assimilated using a bias estimation module that was specifically designed for LST assimilation. As with soil moisture, LST assimilation provides modest yet statistically significant improvements when compared to the model or satellite observations alone. To achieve the improvement, however, the LST assimilation algorithm must be adapted to the specific formulation of LST in the land model. An improved method for the assimilation of snow cover observations was also developed. Finally, the coupling of LIS to the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model enabled investigations into how the sensitivity of land-atmosphere interactions to the specific choice of planetary boundary layer scheme and land surface model varies across surface moisture regimes, and how it can be quantified and evaluated against observations. The on-going development and integration of land assimilation modules into the Land Information System will enable the use of GSFC software with a variety of land models and make it accessible to the research community.

Reichle, Rolf↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Polarization Difference - The Scientific Story Behind One Variable and Its Practical Applications

Cloud ice and snow microphysical characteristics play an important role in determining cloud radiative effect. They are also closely connected to the details of surface precipitation characteristics. Ice orientation is one microphysical property that is traditionally believed to have trivial impact on the weather systems/climate, and it is hard to measure from space. In this presentation, I will show how many scientific stories can be told from one variable – the brightness temperature difference between vertically-polarized and horizontally-polarized 166 GHz measurements from the Global Precipitation Measurement Microwave Imager (GPM-GMI). Through scrutinizing collocated CloudSat, GMI and GPM radar observations together with the aid of radiative transfer model simulations, we can not only tell apart the particle size, shape and orientation, but also understand the precipitation regime as well as the life stage of a a precipitation system. In the second half of my talk, I will showcase how this variable can be used for predicting precipitation flags and separating mixed-phase cloud from liquid and ice with the powerful machine learning/artificial intelligence (ML/AI) technique.

cloud ice and snow microphysical characteristics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Correction to: Investigating the rheology of fluidized and non-fluidized gas-particle beds: implications for the dynamics of geophysical flows and substrate entrainment

We report natural geophysical mass flows are among the most complex granular systems and their dynamics are often modified by the presence of an interstitial fluid. Prediction of their runout requires the development of models estimating the solid stresses in these hazardous currents wherein excess pore-fluid pressure can develop. We use discrete element modelling (DEM-CFD) with a Coarse-Graining post-processing technique (CG) to investigate the rheology of unsteady gas-particle fluidized to non-fluidized granular beds placed on horizontal and inclined planes. Similar to fluidized beds immersed in viscous fluids, the effective friction coefficient of air-fluidized beds can be defined as a function of the classic μ(I)-rheology and the non-dimensional fluid or solid pressure to explain the failure and dynamics of granular flows with excess pore pressure on inclines. However, dilation imposed by fluid drag and particle collisions in gas-particle fluidized beds can drastically change its effective frictional properties. In contrast with the common assumption in water-particle flows that granular temperature is negligible, in our gas-particle simulations, the contribution of the velocity fluctuations to the stress tensor is significant. Hence, the shear stress is found to be non-zero even when the flow is fully fluidized in the inertial regime. These results suggest the need to better understand velocity fluctuations to predict the effective viscosity of sheared fluidized mixtures and are relevant for many applications. Notably, a unified approach is useful for many geophysical flows that encompass a range of fluidization conditions in a single flow such as pyroclastic density currents and snow avalanches.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2022

Winter Severity Affects Occupancy of Spring- and Summer-Breeding Anurans Across the Eastern United States

Climate change is an increasingly important driver of biodiversity loss. The ectothermic nature of amphibians may make them particularly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, adding to declines from other threats. While active season environmental conditions can influence growth and survival, effects of variation in winter conditions on population dynamics are less well-studied. Given that extreme winter temperatures can influence amphibian survival and fitness, we expected that increased winter severity—as measured by variability in winter temperatures and snow cover—would be associated with decreased occupancy, and that populations that experience more severe winters would have the largest sensitivities and show the greatest declines.

climate↗

NASA NTRS2021

The GF Convection Parameterization: Recent Developments, Extensions, and Applications

Recent developments and options in the GF (Grell and Freitas, 2014, Freitas et al.,2018) convection parameterization are presented. The parameterization has been expanded to atrimodal spectral size to simulate three convection modes: shallow, congestus and deep. Incontrast to usual entrainment/detrainment assumptions, we assume that Beta Functions (BFs),commonly applied to represent Probability Density Functions (PDF’s), can be used tocharacterize the vertical mass flux profiles for the three modes, and use the BFs to deriveentrainment and detrainment rates. We also added a new closure for non-equilibrium convectionthat improved the simulation of the diurnal cycle of convection, with a better representation ofthe transition from shallow to deep convection regimes over land. The transport of chemicalconstituents (including wet deposition) can be treated inside the GF scheme. The tracer transportis handled in flux form and is mass conserving. Finally, the cloud microphysics has beenextended to include the ice phase to simulate the conversion from liquid water to ice in updraftswith resulting additional heat release and the melting from snow to rain.

Saulo R De Freitas↗

DOE OSTI2021

Permafrost Promotes Shallow Groundwater Flow and Warmer Headwater Streams

Abstract The presence of permafrost influences the flow paths of water through Arctic landscapes and thereby has the potential to impact stream discharge and thermal regimes. Observations from 11 headwater streams in Alaska showed that July water temperatures were higher in catchments with more near‐surface permafrost. We apply a fully coupled cryohydrology model to investigate if the impact of permafrost on flow path depth could cause the same pattern in temperatures of groundwater discharging from hillslopes to streams. The model simulates surface energy and water balances, snow, and subsurface water and energy balances for two‐dimensional hillslope model cases with varying permafrost extent. We find that hillslopes with continuous permafrost have more shallow flow paths and twice as high rates of evapotranspiration, compared to hillslopes with no permafrost. For our simulated cases, 6.7% of the horizontal water flux moves through the top organic soil layers when there is continuous permafrost, while only 0.5% moves through organic layers without permafrost. The deeper flow paths in permafrost‐free simulations buffer seasonal temperature extremes, so that summer groundwater discharge temperatures are highest with continuous permafrost. Our results suggest that permafrost thawing alters groundwater flow paths and can lead to decreases in summer stream temperatures and reductions in evapotranspiration in headwater catchments. These changes are of potential importance for stream biotic components of ecosystems, however, the full impact remains unknown.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1984

Scattering Models in the Microwave Regime

Scattering from an inhomogeneous layer with irregular boundaries was calculated to model natural terrain such as a layer of vegetation or sea ice. The inhomogeneities were modeled by spherical or disc-shaped discrete scatterers which were small compared with the incident wavelength and were in the far field of one another. It was found that the cross-polarized scattering was dominated by multiple scattering effects and was sensitive to the orientations and distributions of the scatterers. This model has been applied to interpret measurements from vegetation, snow and sea ice. The scattering model was extended to handle disc-shaped scatterers which are comparable to the incident wavelength. The model was used to investigate the relative merits between active versus passive sensing of soil moisture over vegetated terrain. Results indicate that scattering mesurements are more sensitive to soil moisture changes than emission measurements. This is because while both types of measurements lose sensitivity to soil moisture because of the vegetation layer, the loss is greater for passive than active measurements.

Fung, A. K.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Restoring Historic Forest Disturbance Frequency Would Partially Mitigate Droughts in the Central Sierra Nevada Mountains

Forest thinning and prescribed fire are expected to improve the climate resilience and water security of forests in the western U.S., but few studies have directly modeled the hydrological effects of multi-decadal landscape-scale forest disturbance. By updating a distributed process-based hydrological model (DHSVM) with vegetation maps from a distributed forest ecosystem model (LANDIS-II), we simulate the water resource impacts of forest management scenarios targeting partial or full restoration of the pre-colonial disturbance return interval in the central Sierra Nevada mountains. In a fully restored disturbance regime that includes fire, thinning, and insect mortality, reservoir inflow increases by 4%–9% total and 8%–14% in dry years. At sub-watershed scales (10–100 km2), thinning dense forests can increase streamflow by >20% in dry years. In a thinner forest, increased understory transpiration compensates for decreased overstory transpiration. Consequentially, 73% of streamflow gains are attributable to decreased overstory rain and snow interception loss. Thinner forests can increase headwater peak flows, but reservoir-scale peak flows are almost exclusively influenced by climate. Uncertainty in future precipitation causes high uncertainty in future water yield, but the additional water yield attributable to forest disturbance is about five times less sensitive to annual precipitation uncertainty. This partial decoupling of the streamflow disturbance response from annual precipitation makes disturbance especially valuable for water supply during dry years. Our study can increase confidence in the water resource benefits of restoring historic forest disturbance frequencies in the central Sierra Nevada mountains, and our modeling framework is widely applicable to other forested mountain landscapes.

Boardman, Eli N. [University of Nevada, Reno, NV (↗

DOE OSTI2020

Projecting spatiotemporally explicit effects of climate change on stream temperature: A model comparison and implications for coldwater fishes

Conservation planners and resource managers seek information about how the availability and locations of cold-water habitats will change in the future and how these predictions vary among models. In this work, we used a physical process-based model to demonstrate the implications of climate change for streamflow and water temperature in two watersheds with distinctive flow regimes: the Snoqualmie watershed (WA) and Siletz watershed (OR), USA. Our model incorporated a downscaled ensemble of global climate model outputs and was calibrated with in situ and remotely sensed water temperatures. Furthermore, we compared predictions from our processed-based model to those from a publicly available and widely used statistical model. The process-based model projected greater changes in summer maximum water temperatures for the mixed-rain-snow Snoqualmie watershed than for the rain-dominated Siletz watershed as a result of the near-complete loss of winter snowpack and significant reduction in summer flow in the Snoqualmie watershed expected by the 2080s. Both models projected generally similar future spatial patterns of maximum water temperature in the two rivers, with cool reaches distributed farther upstream and fewer in number. However, the process-based model projected higher spatial heterogeneity in water temperature due to our spatially explicit simulation of streamflow and because we calibrated the model with spatially continuous remotely sensed water temperature data. We used stream temperature projections to assess the vulnerability of Pacific salmon and trout to changes in the spatial distribution of cold-water habitats during August by the 2080s. Results suggest that salmonids may have fewer summertime cold-water habitats in both watersheds. Projected stream warming may further limit particular species and life stages, especially in the Snoqualmie watershed. Our comparison of models highlights the importance of considering what might be gained by using a process-based model for evaluating and prioritizing management actions that mitigate climate impacts on cold-water habitats for stream fishes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1992

Relationship between sea ice freeboard and draft in the Arctic Basin, and implications for ice thickness monitoring

This study confirms the finding of Comiso et al. (1991) that the probability density function (pdf) of the ice freeboard in the Arctic Ocean can be converted to a pdf of ice draft by applying a simple coordinate factor. The coordinate factor, R, which is the ratio of mean draft to mean freeboard pdf is related to the mean material (ice plus snow) density, rho(m), and the near-surface water density rho(w) by the relationship R = rho(m)/(rho(w) - rho(m)). The measured value of R was applied to each of six 50-km sections north of Greenland of a joint airborne laser and submarine sonar profile obtained along nearly coincident tracks from the Arctic Basin north of Greenland and was found to be consistent over all sections tested, despite differences in the ice regime. This indicates that a single value of R might be used for measurements done in this season of the year. The mean value R from all six sections was found to be 7.89.

Wadhams, P.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Panel Discussion: Life in the Cosmos

Water appears to be essential to all life on Earth. For this reason, "Follow the Water" has been adopted as a mantra for the search for Life in the Cosmos. Expeditions have helped to establish the limits and biodiversity of life in the most extreme environments on Earth. Microbial extremophiles inhabit acidic streams; hypersaline and hyperalkaline lakes and pools; the cold deep sea floor, permafrost, rocks, glaciers, and perennially ice-covered lakes of the polar environments; geysers, volcanic fumaroles, hydrothermal vents and hot rocks deep within the Earth's crust. The ESA Venus Express Spacecraft entered Venusian Orbit in 2006 and continues to produce exciting results. The Visible and Infrared Thermal Imaging Spectrometer (VIRTIS) instrument made the first detection of hydroxyl in the atmosphere of Venus, indicating it is much more similar to Earth and Mars than previously thought. Huge hurricane-like vortices have been found above the poles of the planet and as yet unidentified UV absorbers that form mysterious dark bands in the upper atmosphere. At 70 km and below, water vapor and sulfur dioxide combine to form sulfuric acid droplets that create a haze above the cloud tops. Thermophilic acidophiles, such as have recently been discovered on Earth, could possibly survive in the hot sulfuric acid droplets that exist in the upper atmosphere of Venus. In order to understand how to search for life elsewhere in the Solar System, over 40 VIRTIS images of Earth from Venus have been obtained to search for evidence of life on Earth. The signatures of water and molecular Oxygen were detected in the Earth s atmosphere, but the atmosphere of Venus also exhibits these signatures. The water and water ice are far more abundant on comet, the polar caps and permafrost of Mars and the icy moons of Jupiter and Saturn. These "frozen worlds" of our Solar System, are much more promising regimes where extant or extinct microbial life may exist. The ESA Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionospheric Sounding (MARSIS) probe has found that both the North and South Polar Caps of Mars are approximately 3.5 km thick and are composed almost entirely of water ice. In winter, a thin dry ice layer covers the caps, but it sublimates directly to CO2 in the spring. The ESA Mars Express Orbiter images reveal Rupes Tenuis to be a vast snow-laden region on the southern edge of the Martian North Polar Cap. The Mars Exploration Rover Spirit found alkaline volcanic rocks in the Gusev Crater and the Phoenix Mars Lander has shown that the soil of Mars is much more alkaline than previously expected. The Phoenix Mars Lander has also made direct observations of frozen and liquid water on Mars. It is known that microorganisms from Alaska, Siberia and Antarctica can remain alive frozen in permafrost or ice for long periods of time. These discoveries increase the possibility that the Labeled Release Experiment may have discovered life on Mars during the Viking Mission and provide strong impetus for the return of life detection experiments to Mars. Changes in the spin rate of Saturn's moon Titan indicate that it may also harbor a 300 km thick liquid water ocean beneath its icy crust. The NASA/ESA/Italian Space Agency Cassini Spacecraft has imaged geysers containing water vapor, methane, carbon dioxide and organics erupting from the "tiger stripe" regions near the South Pole of Saturn's moon Enceladus. The high temperatures observed, the water vapor and large number of ice particles expelled suggest that a liquid water lake may exist beneath the "tiger stripe" ice cracks of Enceladus. The NASA Deep Impact probe found the surface temperature of comet 9P/Temple 1 at 1.5 AY was slightly above the ice/water phase change temperature (273 K). This suggests melting of water ice near the comet surface. A spectrometer the spacecraft detected a mixture of clay and carbonate minerals (that form in the presence of liquid water) streaming off the comet after the collision with the pactor. The study of chemical and mineral biomarkers, chiral amino acids and possible indigenous microfossils in SNC and carbonaceous meteorites continues. These results suggest that comets should be considered prime targets in the search for Life in the Cosmos. The ESA Rosetta mission is on track to rendezvous with comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. The recent space observations combined with new information about the ability of microbial extremophiles to thrive in polar environments suggest that life may be far more widely distributed in the Cosmos than previously thought possible. The Panelists will review recent discoveries and provide their own insights about Life in the Cosmos -- followed by a question and answer session with the audience.

Hoover, Richard B.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Exploring Hydrologic Model Process Connectivity at the Continental Scale Through an Information Theory Approach

Exploring water fluxes between hydrological model (HM) components is essential to assess and improve model realism. Many classical metrics for HM diagnosis rely solely on streamflow and hence provide limited insights into model performance across processes. This study applies an information theory measure known as “transfer entropy” (TE) to systematically quantify the transfer of information among major HM components. To test and demonstrate the benefits of TE, we use the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE) model to mimic and compare four commonly used HM structures, VIC, PRMS, SACRAMENTO, and TOPMODEL, across 671 catchments spanning a variety of hydrologic regimes in the conterminous United States. We explore connections between HM components and catchment landscape characteristics (e.g., climate, topography, soil, and vegetation) and characterize their nonlinear associations using distance correlation and Spearman correlation coefficients. Our results indicate that while the information transferred from precipitation to runoff is similar across model structures (likely as a result of calibration), the information transferred among other components can vary significantly from a FUSE structure to another. We find that aridity, precipitation duration and frequency, snow fraction, mean elevation, forest area, and leaf area index are often significantly associated with TE between the main HM components. Here, we propose that the presence of meaningful nonlinear associations can be used to diagnose process representation in HMs. Our results highlight the necessity to enhance the conventional streamflow-only calibration approach for a more realistic representation of water dynamics in the models.

large-sample hydrology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Deep Learning Advances Arctic River Water Temperature Predictions

The accelerated warming in the Arctic poses serious risks to freshwater ecosystems by altering streamflow and river thermal regimes. However, limited research on Arctic River water temperatures exists due to data scarcity and the absence of robust methodologies, which often focus on large, major river basins. To address this, we leveraged the newly released, extensive AKTEMP data set and advanced machine learning techniques to develop a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. By incorporating ERA5-Land reanalysis data and integrating physical understanding into data-driven processes, our model advanced river water temperature predictions in ungauged, snow- and permafrost-affected basins in Alaska. Our model outperformed existing approaches in high-latitude regions, achieving a median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.95 and root mean squared error of 1.0°C. The LSTM model learned air temperature, soil temperature, solar radiation, and thermal radiation—factors associated with energy balance—were the most important drivers of river temperature dynamics. Soil moisture and snow water equivalent were highlighted as critical factors representing key processes such as thawing, melting, and groundwater contributions. Glaciers and permafrost were also identified as important covariates, particularly in seasonal river water temperature predictions. Our LSTM model successfully captured the complex relationships between hydrometeorological factors and river water temperatures across varying timescales and hydrological conditions. This scalable and transferable approach can be potentially applied across the Arctic, offering valuable insights for future conservation and management efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-31979-DND

The rapid, and in many cases, unprecedented changes in the Arctic climate system observed since 1979 are having devastating impacts on both natural and human systems. These changes are marked by warming Arctic temperatures, rapid declines in sea ice and snow cover, permafrost thaw, mountain glacier melt, and Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss. A common thread through each of these changes is the impact on the surface energy budget. However, our understanding of the controls on and variability of the Arctic surface energy budget is incomplete and this contributes to the significant biases in the climate models. To better understand the controls on the variability of the Arctic surface energy budget and CMIP5 model biases, we use an atmospheric regime-based perspective of the Arctic surface energy budget decomposing variability by atmospheric dynamic and thermodynamic properties.

Patrick C. Taylor↗

DOE OSTI2024

Low-Level Liquid-Bearing Clouds Contribute to Seasonal Lower Atmosphere Stability and Surface Energy Forcing over a High-Mountain Watershed Environment

Measurements of atmospheric structure and surface energy budgets distributed along a high-altitude moun tain watershed environment near Crested Butte, Colorado, from two separate, but coordinated, field campaigns, Surface Atmosphere Integrated field Laboratory (SAIL) and Study of Precipitation, the Lower Atmosphere, and Surface for Hydrometeorology (SPLASH), are analyzed. This study identifies similarities and differences in how clouds influence the radiative budget over one snow-free summer season (2022) and two snow-covered seasons (2021/22; 2022/23) for this alpine location. A relationship between lower-tropospheric stability stratification and longwave radiative flux from the presence or absence of clouds is identified. When low clouds persisted, often with signatures of supercooled liquid in win ter, the lower troposphere experienced weaker stability, while radiatively clear skies that are less likely to be influenced by liquid droplets were associated with appreciably stronger lower-tropospheric stratification. Corresponding surface turbu lent heat fluxes partitioned differently based upon the cloud–stability stratification regime derived from early morning radiosounding profiles. Combined with the differences in the radiative budget largely resulting from dramatic seasonal dif ferences in surface albedo, the lower atmosphere stratification, surface energy budget, and near-surface thermodynamics are shown to be modified by the effective longwave radiative forcing of clouds. The diurnal evolution of thermodynamics and surface energy components varied depending on the early morning stratification state. Thus, the importance of quies cent versus synoptically active large-scale meteorology is hypothesized as a critical forcing for cloud properties and associ ated surface energy budget variations. The physical relationships between clouds, radiation, and stratification can provide a useful suite of metrics for process understanding and to evaluate numerical models in such an undersampled, highly com plex terrain environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Greater vulnerability of snowmelt-fed river thermal regimes to a warming climate

While the advective flux from cool melt runoff can be a significant source of thermal energy to mountainous rivers, it has been a much less addressed process in river temperature modeling and thus our understanding is limited with respect to the spatiotemporal effect of melt on river temperatures at the watershed scale. In particular, the extent and magnitude of the melt cooling effect in the context of a warming climate are not yet well understood. To address this knowledge gap, we improved a coupled hydrology and stream temperature modeling system, Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model and River Basin Model (DHSVM-RBM), to account for the thermal effect of cool snowmelt runoff on river temperatures. The model was applied to a snow-fed river basin in the Pacific Northwest to evaluate the responses of snow, hydrology, stream temperatures, and potential fish growth to future climates. Historical simulations suggest that snowmelt can notably reduce the basin-wide peak summer temperatures particularly at high-elevation tributaries, while the thermal impacts of melt water can persist through the summer along the mainstem. Ensemble climate projections suggested that a warming climate will decrease basin mean peak snow and summer streamflow by 92% and 60% by the end of the century. Due to the compounded influences of warmer temperatures, lower flows and diminished cooling from melt, rivers reaches in high elevation snow-dominated areas were projected to be most vulnerable to future climate change, showing the largest increases in summer peak temperatures. As a result, thermal habitat used by anadromous Pacific salmon was projected to exhibit substantially lower growth potential during summer in future. These results have demonstrated the necessity of accounting for snowmelt influence on stream temperature modeling in mountainous watersheds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Progress from ASDEX Upgrade experiments in preparing the physics basis of ITER operation and DEMO scenario development

An overview of recent results obtained at the tokamak ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) is given. A work flow for predictive profile modelling of AUG discharges was established which is able to reproduce experimental H-mode plasma profiles based on engineering parameters only. In the plasma center, theoretical predictions on plasma current redistribution by a dynamo effect were confirmed experimentally. For core transport, the stabilizing effect of fast ion distributions on turbulent transport is shown to be important to explain the core isotope effect and improves the description of hollow low-Z impurity profiles. The L–H power threshold of hydrogen plasmas is not affected by small helium admixtures and it increases continuously from the deuterium to the hydrogen level when the hydrogen concentration is raised from 0 to 100%. One focus of recent campaigns was the search for a fusion relevant integrated plasma scenario without large edge localised modes (ELMs). Results from six different ELM-free confinement regimes are compared with respect to reactor relevance: ELM suppression by magnetic perturbation coils could be attributed to toroidally asymmetric turbulent fluctuations in the vicinity of the separatrix. Stable improved confinement mode plasma phases with a detached inner divertor were obtained using a feedback control of the plasma β. The enhanced D α H-mode regime was extended to higher heating power by feedback controlled radiative cooling with argon. The quasi-coherent exhaust regime was developed into an integrated scenario at high heating power and energy confinement, with a detached divertor and without large ELMs. Small ELMs close to the separatrix lead to peeling-ballooning stability and quasi continuous power exhaust. Helium beam density fluctuation measurements confirm that transport close to the separatrix is important to achieve the different ELM-free regimes. Based on separatrix plasma parameters and interchange-drift-Alfvén turbulence, an analytic model was derived that reproduces the experimentally found important operational boundaries of the density limit and between L- and H-mode confinement. Feedback control for the X-point radiator (XPR) position was established as an important element for divertor detachment control. Stable and detached ELM-free phases with H-mode confinement quality were obtained when the XPR was moved 10 cm above the X-point. Investigations of the plasma in the future flexible snow-flake divertor of AUG by means of first SOLPS-ITER simulations with drifts activated predict beneficial detachment properties and the activation of an additional strike point by the drifts.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Projected changes in extreme streamflow and inland flooding in the mid-21st century over Northeastern United States using ensemble WRF-Hydro simulations

Study region: Northeastern United States (NEUS). Study focus: We investigate the potential impacts of climate change on precipitation, streamflow, and inland flooding in the NEUS during the mid-21st century. Dynamically downscaled climate projections from three global climate models for historical (1995-2004) and future (2045-2054) periods under business-as-usual scenarios were used to force the hydrologic model WRF-Hydro at 200-meter resolution and create ensemble hydrologic simulations. Additionally, an extreme value model was developed to project the risks associated with low-frequency hydrologic events. New hydrological insights for the region: Results from four major watersheds indicate a significantly wetter regime in winter months and potential drier conditions during late spring to early summer. Discharges in fall are projected to decrease in the northern watersheds and increase toward the south. Extreme flow and water depths resulting from extreme inland flooding are projected to increase by 5-20% and > 100%, respectively. The extent of the total flooded area is likely to be 20% greater by the mid-century. These increased risks can be attributed to (i) an approximate 25% increase in decadal mean and > 40% increase in decadal extreme precipitation intensity, (ii) up to 30% lower snow availability and 5-25% higher evapotranspiration throughout the year, and (iii) a projected 5% increase in soil moisture in all seasons except summer. Furthermore, rapid snow melting in winter will likely cause an earlier peak flow in the rivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗