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At least 73 records · Page 4

Data-driven modeling of dynamic occupant thermostat override behavior for demand response applications

Buildings consume nearly 40% of global energy and produce similar emissions. Whiletechnological advances address efficiency, occupant behavior causes energy use variations up to 300% between identical buildings. This gap between predicted and actual building performance impacts building design, operations, and grid demand management programs. Through analyses of smart thermostat data from 1,400 single-occupant homes, the researchdemonstrates that occupants respond to 8°F thermostat setpoint changes within a median of 15 minutes, while 2°F changes trigger responses within a median of 30 minutes. This highlights an understudied temporal relationship between thermostat setbacks and response time of occupant behaviors. Models of such behavior dynamics are required to incorporate occupant impacts into building performance simulation. A key contribution of this dissertation is the Thermal Frustration Theory (TFT), which positsthat thermal discomfort driven behaviors are caused by the time-accumulation of discomfort, not simply a temperature deviation threshold or a delay from an initiating event. Using a dataset of 634 thermostats, each with 25+ manual setpoint changes, a comparative analysis of TFT and comfort zone and a delayed response theories demonstrated that personalized TFT models better predict when manual setpoint change occur. This was measured by the area under the curve statistical measure (AUC); all three models perform similarly by a Matthews Correlation Coefficient measure. Higher AUC performance is especially important for modeling occupant behavior in demand response programs where false negatives of rare occupant interactions could adversely affect grid stability. EnergyPlus based simulations were conducted with TFT-derived occupant models, demonstrating the ability to identify parameters of known TFT models from only data observable with smart thermostats, even under the presence of noise from routine overrides. Overall, the dissertation highlights that thermostat interactions are neither static,instantaneous, nor driven solely by the environment. Instead, temporal accumulation of discomfort and routine-based behavior play important roles. The methodology and results offer a pathway towards more accurate modeling of human-building interactions for policy assessment, building design, and demand response programs.

Sharma, Kunind [Northeastern University] (ORCID:00↗

Effectiveness of Privacy Techniques in Smart Metering Systems

Smart grid technologies enable timely energy billing for residential homes. The ability to react to energy demands during peak hours allows energy providers to conserve power and operate efficiently. However, these data streams are also susceptible to privacy attacks within the energy company and from outside hackers. We implemented four different privacy models: k-anonymous, l-diversity, t-closeness, and ε-differential privacy. We demonstrate the models’ effectiveness using a real-world dataset composed of 15 different residential households with energy consumption data spanning over a year.

Peralta-Peterson, Martin↗

GreenThrift: Optimizing Carbon and Cost for Flexible Residential Loads

Reducing buildings’ carbon emissions is an important sustainability challenge. While scheduling flexible building loads has been previously used for a variety of grid and energy optimizations, carbon footprint reduction using such flexible loads poses new challenges since such methods need to balance both energy and carbon costs while also reducing user inconvenience from delaying such loads. This paper highlights the potential conflict between electricity prices and carbon emissions and the resulting trade-offs in carbon-aware and cost-aware load scheduling. To address this trade-off, we propose GreenThrift, a home automation system that leverages the scheduling capabilities of smart appliances and knowledge of future carbon intensity and cost to reduce both the carbon emissions and costs of flexible energy loads. At the heart of GreenThrift is an optimization technique that automatically computes schedules based on user configurations and preferences. We evaluate the effectiveness of GreenThrift using real-world carbon intensity data, electricity prices, and load traces from multiple locations and across different scenarios and objectives. Our results show that GreenThrift can replicate the offline optimal and retains 97% of the savings when optimizing the carbon emissions. Moreover, we show how GreenThrift can balance the conflict between carbon and cost and retain 95.3% and 85.5% of the potential carbon and cost savings, respectively.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Smart Ventilation Controls for Occupancy and Auxiliary Fan Use Across U.S. Climates

Smart Ventilation has been developed as a way to reduce the energy associated with ventilation by changing when ventilation happens and how much ventilation occurs at any given time. In high performance buildings with low envelope and appliance related loads, ventilation is becoming a bigger part of the total building energy use and needs to be addressed if performance targets are to be met. This work explores the development and performance of smart ventilation controls based on occupancy and auxiliary fan operation that provide annual dwelling unit ventilation equivalence to ASHRAE Standard 62.2-2016. A prototype high performance home compliant with U.S. DOE Building America Zero Energy Ready program requirements was simulated using the REGCAP tool with and without smart controls across 15 U.S. DOE climate zones. Balanced and unbalanced IAQ fans were independently simulated, and all smart controlled fans had airflows double the reference 62.2-2016 airflow. Three idealized occupancy patterns were examined: 1st shift (a typical daily work/school absence), an extended 1st shift with more time spent out of the home evenings and weekends and 3rd shift (night work). The Occupancy controller turns the IAQ fan off during unoccupied periods, and it resumes ventilation upon their return. While unoccupied, contaminants are allowed to accumulate in the space, because occupants are not exposed to these contaminants. When occupants return home, they are exposed to these higher contaminant concentrations, and the controller increases the ventilation rate sufficiently to ensure equivalence with a continuous IAQ fan. Accounting for pollutant emissions that occur during unoccupied periods (as required by ASHRAE 62.2-2016), sharply distinguishes our occupancy controls from past Demand Controlled Ventilation systems. This new accounting method results in equivalent contaminant exposure, as well as lower reductions in average ventilation rates and lower energy savings. Smart controls were demonstrated that saved HVAC energy (i.e., avoided heating/cooling load, as well as fan energy)—averaging between 6 and 46% of ventilation-related energy use depending on the control strategy and occupancy pattern assumptions. The greatest savings were in the combined Auxiliary Fan + Occupancy control. Energy savings increased with climate heating demand and longer unoccupied time periods. The 3rd shift occupancy pattern had better performance, due to the thermal benefit of reducing the ventilation rate during the cold nighttime hours. This same effect provided a cooling energy benefit in hotter locations for the 1st shift. Overall, savings from occupancy-based smart controls were low, because of the recovery period required after occupants return home, during which the airflow is double the 62.2 reference. This recovery is required to maintain equivalence with the ASHRAE standard. Occupancy-based control performance was improved when combined with sensing auxiliary fans and when providing a pre-occupancy flush out of one- or two-hours. Performance was similarly improved if the ASHRAE Standard were to recognize that pollutant emissions are lower during unoccupied periods, iii allowing a lower target ventilation rate during unoccupied periods (not currently in the standard) (see Full vs. Half AEQ in this report). Finally, over-sized unbalanced fans that are cycled on-and-off by a smart controller (or timer) were found to substantially increase annual average air exchange and energy use relative to a continuous unbalanced fan due to the effects of superposition with natural infiltration.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Emerging Threats and Technology Investigation: Industrial Internet of Things - Risk and Mitigation for Nuclear Infrastructure

Industries supporting the global nuclear infrastructure striving for cost savings, expansions in efficiency, and convenience are likely to adopt components (e.g., hardware, software) that comprise the Internet of Things (IoT) and Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT). These devices offer potential improvements along with security challenges. Modern conveniences achieved through application of technology have propagated through society in the form of interconnected devices, from doorbells to microwave ovens, commonly referred to as IoT. IoT devices are often Internet-connected devices that are designed to send data back to a cloud-based server, where a smart phone application then presents device status and control options. Home-based IoT applications carry a different set of risks when compared to a business or security environment, where there is also a history of convenience and interconnection. Industrial settings have long relied on specifically designed Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems for process control where IIoT devices are intended to inform business decisions and augment traditional processes. A recent National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) report provides a distinction between process control and IIoT in that traditional process control is not replaced by IIoT, but rather IIoT devices are intended to enhance industrial processes through additional monitoring of various sensors and application of data analytics models using artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) (Fagan, Marron, et al. 2021) (Ross, et al. 2021).

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Updated Report for the Natural Gas Community of the Future

Nicor Gas is developing the Natural Gas Community of the Future (later renamed the Nicor Gas Smart Neighborhood (TM), a high-performance residential neighborhood consisting of 50 homes connected to electricity and natural gas services in suburban South Chicago , built as low-income affordable housing. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has been assisting Nicor Gas to explore a synergy among energy efficiency, renewable technologies, affordability, and resilience enabled by natural gas in this community. Our goal is to demonstrate how energy efficiency, distributed energy resources (DERs), and advanced controls, in combination with existing natural gas and electricity infrastructure, can help historically underserved communities in a cold climate reduce energy burden and improve resilience to extreme weather conditions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

High-Performance Windows -- More than just a Pretty Hole in the Wall

As more stringent building energy codes and better insulation products combine to yield better performing walls, window efficiency is coming into sharper focus. The U.S. Department of Energy has supported several projects through its national laboratories to improve the thermal performance of windows. At Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) in Richland, Washington, the PNNL Lab Homes, two fully monitored identical side-by-side manufactured homes, have been used to test the performance of several window improvements including triple-pane windows, storm windows with low-emissivity (low-e) coatings, smart automated interior insulated shades, and exterior shading products. Findings will be presented on these studies, along with impacts. For example, PNNL’s Lab Home research on low-e storm windows has helped to support a new ENERGY STAR certification, industry standards, and utility incentives. Preliminary findings will also be presented on current Lab Homes experiments focusing on exterior shades. The session will also present findings from related field studies and a market assessment of emerging high-efficiency windows technologies and discuss some of PNNL’s planned field studies that will focus on validating the benefits and costs of the emerging thin triple-pane high-R window.

windows, high-r windows, insulating windows, windo↗

An Automatic Learning Framework for Smart Residential Communities

Predictability has been foundational to matching supply and demand in the day-to-day operation of the electric power system. Demand predictability is eroding because of the increased use of renewable energy resources and more sophisticated loads, such as electric vehicles and smart appliances. In this paper, an automatic software framework is described which can be used for load forecasting in smart communities. A time-varying clustering-based Markov chain approach is used to predict the energy consumption of residential buildings in a smart community. The training data is based on 1-minute meter data of occupied homes over one month. The data points are first clustered based on the energy consumption and the time of the day. Then, the original data is converted using the Centroids of the clusters. A time-varying Markov chain is subsequently trained to model the energy consumption behavior of residents for each home using the transformed data. The trained model is shown to successfully predict load in 5-minute intervals over a 24 hours period.

Zandi, Helia↗

Development of a Residential Smart Range Hood

This report documents the development testing of a residential smart range hood for automated mitigation of air pollutants generated during cooking events.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Validation of a Co-Optimized, Smart Hybrid Heat Pump Control

This study examines a residential dual fuel (DF) heating system that integrates heat pump and gas furnace technology with a home’s forced-air distribution ducts. Specifically, it explores a retrofit where an “add-on” heat pump replaces the air conditioning (A/C) system and is combined with the home’s existing furnace and air handler. The research team developed and validated an innovative control scheme for this integrated DF system that selected the more economical heating source (furnace or heat pump) while maintaining comfort in the home. The project’s field study and subsequent modeling analysis show that this control scheme can decrease energy use, cost, and emissions compared to a furnace-only system. As homes in mixed and cold climates transition to more electric space heating, furnace-to-dual fuel system retrofits offer a solution that can alleviate the retrofit costs, energy cost concerns, and peak load impacts of full electrification.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

An Empirical Validation of a Constrained Bin Packing Algorithm for a Home Energy Management System

The increasing number of intelligent electrical appliances and home energy management systems provide a big opportunity for demand response services from residential and small commercial buildings to the grid. Simultaneously, direct control of individual devices by utilities can cause communication bottlenecks, as well as coordination and privacy concerns. These challenges can be addressed by combining the constituent devices into a single house battery equivalent for the purposes of demand response, using Minkowski sum and a 2d bin packing problem. However, the well-studied traditional problems have not been tested in a real house, as implementation carries significant challenges of its own. We deploy the packing problem on residential devices in a controllable house. We report the barriers we found, such as charge forecast and scalability of the algorithm, and discuss our solutions. The study serves as an intermediate step between existing theoretical research and possible future steps, such as prototype deployments of systems that provide residential demand response.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Development and Validation of Home Comfort System for Total Performance Deficiency/Fault Detection and Optimal Comfort Control

In this project, we developed and tested a learning-based home thermal model that facilitates the operation of a model predictive control (MPC)-based optimization agent and an automated fault detection and diagnosis (AFDD) agent. The home thermal model was constructed using a two-node resistor-capacitor model. Moreover, two accompanying parameter identification methods were introduced, least-squares and optimization. Based on the home thermal model, the MPC-based optimization agent was developed to optimize residential HVAC operation. Using two FDD methods, the AFDD agent was constructed to detect and diagnose two prevalent residential AC faults, airflow reduction and refrigerant undercharge. The home thermal model, along with the MPC-based optimization agent and AFDD agent, were tested at the Norman Test House, Miami Test House, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) Test House A, and PNNL Test House B. Finally, they were also field tested in nine demonstration homes with real occupants.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Dynamic Inverter Characterization for Modeling

The goal of the project was to develop data to be used for modeling the dynamic characteristics of smart inverters. The inverters were tested in both a lab setting, and a subset was deployed in residential homes for longer term data collection during real-world use.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Smart Ventilation Controls Boost Energy Efficiency and Indoor Air Quality

The average American household spends more than $2,200 a year on energy, and heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) costs comprise nearly half of the bill. This is one reason why home builders focus on tightening building envelopes to save energy. Yet, limiting the potential for air exchange can negatively impact indoor air quality (IAQ). When outdoor conditions are most extreme during occupied periods, there may be comfort implications from continuing high levels of ventilation during associated weather events. This is true even with heat recovery. To mitigate risks, the Florida Solar Energy Center developed and tested approaches for “smart” ventilation system controls that enable more reliable design, installation, and operation to achieve desired IAQ while also minimizing energy and comfort impacts.

Building America↗

Impacts of COVID-19 related stay-at-home restrictions on residential electricity use and implications for future grid stability

“Stay-at-home” orders and other health precautions enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic have led to substantial changes in residential electricity usage. Here, we conduct a case study to analyze data from 390 apartments in New York City (NYC) to examine the impacts of two key drivers of residential electricity usage: COVID-19 case-loads and the outdoor temperature. We develop a series of regression models to predict two characteristics of residential electricity usage on weekdays: The average occupied apartment’s consumption (kWh) over a 9am-5pm window and the hourly peak demand (Watt) over a 12pm-5pm window. Via a Monte Carlo simulation, we forecast the two usage characteristics under a possible scenario in which stay-at-home orders in NYC, or a similar metropolitan region, coincide with warm summer weather. Under the scenario, the 9am-5pm residential electricity usage on weekdays is predicted to be 15% – 24% higher than under prior, pre-pandemic conditions. This could lead to substantially higher utility costs for residents. Additionally, we predict that the residential hourly peak demand between 12pm and 5pm on weekdays could be 35% – 53% higher than that under pre-pandemic conditions. We conclude that the projected increase in peak demand - which might arise if stay-at-home guidelines coincided with hot weather conditions - could pose grid management challenges, especially for residential feeders. We also note that, if there is a longer lasting shift towards work and study-from-home, utilities will have to rethink load profile considerations. The applications of our predictive models to managing future smart-grid technology are also highlighted.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Lockdown impacts on residential electricity demand in India: A data-driven and non-intrusive load monitoring study using Gaussian mixture models

This study evaluates the effect of complete nationwide lockdown in 2020 on residential electricity demand across 13 Indian cities and the role of digitalisation using a public smart meter dataset. We undertake a data-driven approach to explore the energy impacts of work-from-home norms across five dwelling typologies. Our methodology includes climate correction, dimensionality reduction and machine learning-based clustering using Gaussian Mixture Models of daily load curves. Results show that during the lockdown, maximum daily peak demand increased by 150-200% as compared to 2018 and 2019 levels for one room-units (RM1), one bedroom-units (BR1) and two bedroom-units (BR2) which are typical for low- and middle-income families. While the upper-middle- and higher-income dwelling units (i.e., three (3BR) and more-than-three bedroom-units (M3BR)) saw night-time demand rise by almost 44% in 2020, as compared to 2018 and 2019 levels. Our results also showed that new peak demand emerged for the lockdown period for RM1, BR1 and BR2 dwelling typologies. We found that the lack of supporting socioeconomic and climatic data can restrict a comprehensive analysis of demand shocks using similar public datasets, which informed policy implications for India's digitalisation. We further emphasised improving the data quality and reliability for effective data-centric policymaking.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗