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At least 73 records · Page 4

Investigating the impact of aerosol deposition on snowmelt over the Greenland Ice Sheet using a large-ensemble kernel

Accelerating surface melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has led to a doubling of Greenland's contribution to global sea level rise during recent decades. Black carbon (BC), dust, and other light-absorbing impurities (LAIs) darken the surface and enhance snowmelt by boosting the absorption of solar energy. It is therefore important for coupled aerosol–climate and ice sheet models to include snow darkening effects from LAI, and yet most do not. In this study, we conduct several thousand simulations with the Community Land Model (CLM) component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to characterize changes in melt runoff due to variations in the amount, timing, and nature (wet or dry) of BC deposition on the GrIS. From this large matrix of simulations, we develop a kernel relating runoff to the location, month, year (from 2006 to 2015), and magnitudes of BC concentration within precipitation and dry deposition flux. BC deposition during June–August causes the largest increase in annually integrated runoff, but winter deposition events also exert large (roughly half as great) runoff perturbations due to reexposure of impurities at the snow surface during summer melt. Current BC deposition fluxes simulated with the atmosphere component of CESM induce a climatological-mean increase in GrIS-wide runoff of ∼ 8 Gt yr −1 , or +6.8 % relative to a paired simulation without BC deposition. We also provide linear equations that relate the increase in total runoff to GrIS-wide wet and dry BC deposition fluxes. It is our hope that the runoff kernel and simple equations provided here can be used to extend the utility of state-of-the-art aerosol models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A biorthogonal decomposition for the identification and simulation of non-stationary and non-Gaussian random fields

In this paper, a new method for the identification and simulation of non-Gaussian and non-stationary stochastic fields given a database is proposed. It is based on two successive biorthogonal decompositions aiming at representing spatio–temporal stochastic fields. The proposed double expansion allows to build the model even in the case of large-size problems by separating the time, space and random parts of the field. A Gaussian kernel estimator is used to simulate the high dimensional set of random variables appearing in the decomposition. The capability of the method to reproduce the non-stationary and non-Gaussian features of random phenomena is illustrated by applications to earthquakes (seismic ground motion) and sea states (wave heights).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Uncertainty quantification tools for multiphase gas-solid flow simulations using MFIX

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been widely studied and used in the scientific community and in the industry. Various models were proposed to solve problems in different areas. However, all models deviate from reality. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) process evaluates the overall uncertainties associated with the prediction of quantities of interest. In particular it studies the propagation of input uncertainties to the outputs of the models so that confidence intervals can be provided for the simulation results. In the present work, a non-intrusive quadrature-based uncertainty quantification (QBUQ) approach is proposed. The probability distribution function (PDF) of the system response can be then reconstructed using extended quadrature method of moments (EQMOM) and extended conditional quadrature method of moments (ECQMOM). The report first explains the theory of QBUQ approach, including methods to generate samples for problems with single or multiple uncertain input parameters, low order statistics, and required number of samples. Then methods for univariate PDF reconstruction (EQMOM) and multivariate PDF reconstruction (ECQMOM) are explained. The implementation of QBUQ approach into the open-source CFD code MFIX is discussed next. At last, QBUQ approach is demonstrated in several applications. The method is first applied to two examples: a developing flow in a channel with uncertain viscosity, and an oblique shock problem with uncertain upstream Mach number. The error in the prediction of the moment response is studied as a function of the number of samples, and the accuracy of the moments required to reconstruct the PDF of the system response is discussed. The QBUQ approach is then demonstrated by considering a bubbling fluidized bed as example application. The mean particle size is assumed to be the uncertain input parameter. The system is simulated with a standard two-fluid model with kinetic theory closures for the particulate phase implemented into MFIX. The effect of uncertainty on the disperse-phase volume fraction, on the phase velocities and on the pressure drop inside the fluidized bed are examined, and the reconstructed PDFs are provided for the three quantities studied. Then the approach is applied to a bubbling fluidized bed with two uncertain parameters, particle-particle and particle-wall restitution coefficients. Contour plots of the mean and standard deviation of solid volume fraction, solid phase velocities and gas pressure are provided. The PDFs of the response are reconstructed using EQMOM with appropriate kernel density functions. The simulation results are compared to experimental data provided by the 2013 NETL small-scale challenge problem. Lastly, the proposed procedure is demonstrated by considering a riser of a circulating fluidized bed as an example application. The mean particle size is considered to be the uncertain input parameter. Contour plots of the mean and standard deviation of solid volume fraction, solid phase velocities, and granular temperature are provided. Mean values and confidence intervals of the quantities of interest are compared to the experiment results. The univariate and bivariate PDF reconstructions of the system response are performed using EQMOM and ECQMOM.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Tail Behaviour of Self-Similar Profiles with Infinite Mass for Smoluchowski’s Coagulation Equation

In this article, we consider self-similar profiles to Smoluchowski’s coagulation equation for which we derive the precise asymptotic behaviour at infinity. More precisely, we look at so-called fat-tailed profiles which decay algebraically and as a consequence have infinite total mass. The results only require mild assumptions on the coagulation kernel and thus cover a large class of rate kernels.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Co-optimized machine-learned manifold models for large eddy simulation of turbulent combustion

Many modeling approaches in large eddy simulation (LES) of turbulent combustion employ a projection of the thermochemical state onto a low-dimensional manifold within state space to reduce the number of transported variables and hence computational cost. Flamelet-generated manifolds (FGM) is an example of a well-established, physics-based approach, but increasingly, principal component analysis (PCA) is being used as a data-driven method for generating manifold models. For both approaches, the nonlinear relationship between the location on the predefined manifold and the outputs of interest, such as reaction rates, can be tabulated or encoded in a neural network. This work proposes a new approach for manifold modeling that extends these existing approaches. A modified neural network structure simultaneously encodes the definition of the manifold variables, the nonlinear mapping, and the subfilter closure for LES. This allows all three of these aspects of the model to be co-optimized, generating a model from any source of combustion thermochemical state data. The manifold parameterizing variables are constrained to be linear combinations of species, as in FGM and PCA-based models, to aid in interpretability and implementation. For LES, subfilter variances of the manifold variables are also included as inputs. Two types of a priori analysis are performed to evaluate the new approach. In the first, the model is trained on data from one-dimensional premixed flames. In this case, the approach recovers the behavior of flamelet-based manifold approaches, and in fact slightly improves performance by identifying an optimized progress variable. The approach is also applied to data from direct numerical simulations of spherical ignition kernels in isotropic turbulence. For any specified manifold dimensionality, the new approach provides substantially lower prediction errors than a PCA-based model developed from the same data set. Additionally, the LES formulation of the new approach can provide accurate predictions for filtered reaction rates across a variety of filter widths.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Efficient approach to obtain free energy gradient using QM/MM MD simulation

The efficient computational approach denoted as charge and atom dipole response kernel (CDRK) model to consider polarization effects of the quantum mechanical (QM) region is described using the charge response and the atom dipole response kernels for free energy gradient (FEG) calculations in the quantum mechanical/molecular mechanical (QM/MM) method. CDRK model can reasonably reproduce energies and also energy gradients of QM and MM atoms obtained by expensive QM/MM calculations in a drastically reduced computational time. This model is applied on the acylation reaction in hydrated trypsin-BPTI complex to optimize the reaction path on the free energy surface by means of FEG and the nudged elastic band (NEB) method.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The recent increase of atmospheric methane from 10 years of ground-based NDACC FTIR observations since 2005

Changes of atmospheric methane total columns (CH 4 ) since 2005 have been evaluated using Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) solar observations carried out at 10 ground-based sites, affiliated to the Network for Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). From this, we find an increase of atmospheric methane total columns of 0.31 ± 0.03 % year –1 (2 σ level of uncertainty) for the 2005–2014 period. Comparisons with in situ methane measurements at both local and global scales show good agreement. We used the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model tagged simulation, which accounts for the contribution of each emission source and one sink in the total methane, simulated over 2005–2012. After regridding according to NDACC vertical layering using a conservative regridding scheme and smoothing by convolving with respective FTIR seasonal averaging kernels, the GEOS-Chem simulation shows an increase of atmospheric methane total columns of 0.35 ± 0.03 % year –1 between 2005 and 2012, which is in agreement with NDACC measurements over the same time period (0.30 ± 0.04 % year –1 , averaged over 10 stations). Analysis of the GEOS-Chem-tagged simulation allows us to quantify the contribution of each tracer to the global methane change since 2005. We find that natural sources such as wetlands and biomass burning contribute to the interannual variability of methane. However, anthropogenic emissions, such as coal mining, and gas and oil transport and exploration, which are mainly emitted in the Northern Hemisphere and act as secondary contributors to the global budget of methane, have played a major role in the increase of atmospheric methane observed since 2005. Furthermore based on the GEOS-Chem-tagged simulation, we discuss possible cause(s) for the increase of methane since 2005, which is still unexplained.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Numerical Investigation of Spark Ignition Events in Lean and Dilute Methane/Air Mixtures using a Detailed Energy Deposition Model

It is beneficial but challenging to operate spark-ignition engines under highly lean and dilute conditions. The unstable ignition behavior can result in downgraded combustion performance in engine cylinders. Numerical approach is serving as a promising tool to identify the ignition requirements by providing insight into the complex physical/chemical phenomena. An effort to simulate the early stage of flame kernel initiation in lean and dilute fuel/air mixture has been made and discussed in this paper. The simulations are set to validate against laboratory results of spark ignition behavior in a constant volume combustion vessel. In order to present a practical as well as comprehensive ignition model, the simulations are performed by taking into consideration the discharge circuit analysis, the detailed reaction mechanism, and local heat transfer between the flame kernel and spark plug. The energy profile and the energy source geometry are investigated in detail to represent the physics of electrical discharge. It was observed in the experiments that a sufficiently high ambient pressure is necessary for a successful ignition event in the lean and dilute mixture when the spark plug gap size and primary energy input are held constant. By adopting realistic energy levels, this detailed energy deposition model showed the capability to reasonably present such ignition behavior transition. The unique combination of energy deposition profile and geometry reveals the complexity of electrical discharge during the spark ignition event. The response of the combustible gas to the energy deposition showed dependency on the volumetric energy density, energy source’s surface area, temperature gradient at the energy source boundary, as well as the heat transfer condition local to the flame kernel.

Zhang, Anqi↗

SU-F-T-672: A Novel Kernel-Based Dose Engine for KeV Photon Beams

Purpose: Mimicking state-of-the-art patient radiotherapy with high precision irradiators for small animals allows advanced dose-effect studies and radiobiological investigations. One example is the implementation of pre-clinical IMRT-like irradiations, which requires the development of inverse planning for keV photon beams. As a first step, we present a novel kernel-based dose calculation engine for keV x-rays with explicit consideration of energy and material dependencies. Methods: We follow a superposition-convolution approach adapted to keV x-rays, based on previously published work on micro-beam therapy. In small animal radiotherapy, we assume local energy deposition at the photon interaction point, since the electron ranges in tissue are of the same order of magnitude as the voxel size. This allows us to use photon-only kernel sets generated by MC simulations, which are pre-calculated for six energy windows and ten base materials. We validate our stand-alone dose engine against Geant4 MC simulations for various beam configurations in water, slab phantoms with bone and lung inserts, and on a mouse CT with (0.275mm)3 voxels. Results: We observe good agreement for all cases. For field sizes of 1mm{sup 2} to 1cm{sup 2} in water, the depth dose curves agree within 1% (mean), with the largest deviations in the first voxel (4%) and at depths>5cm (<2.5%). The out-of-field doses at 1cm depth agree within 8% (mean) for all but the smallest field size. In slab geometries, the mean agreement was within 3%, with maximum deviations of 8% at water-bone interfaces. The γ-index (1mm/1%) passing rate for a single-field mouse irradiation is 71%. Conclusion: The presented dose engine yields an accurate representation of keV-photon doses suitable for inverse treatment planning for IMRT. It has the potential to become a significantly faster yet sufficiently accurate alternative to full MC simulations. Further investigations will focus on energy sampling as well as calculation times. Research at ICR is also supported by Cancer Research UK under Programme C33589/A19727 and NHS funding to the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at RMH and ICR. MFF is supported by Cancer Research UK under Programme C33589/A19908.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Theoretical detection threshold of the proton-acoustic range verification technique

Purpose: Range verification in proton therapy using the proton-acoustic signal induced in the Bragg peak was investigated for typical clinical scenarios. The signal generation and detection processes were simulated in order to determine the signal-to-noise limits. Methods: An analytical model was used to calculate the dose distribution and local pressure rise (per proton) for beams of different energy (100 and 160 MeV) and spot widths (1, 5, and 10 mm) in a water phantom. In this method, the acoustic waves propagating from the Bragg peak were generated by the general 3D pressure wave equation implemented using a finite element method. Various beam pulse widths (0.1–10 μs) were simulated by convolving the acoustic waves with Gaussian kernels. A realistic PZT ultrasound transducer (5 cm diameter) was simulated with a Butterworth bandpass filter with consideration of random noise based on a model of thermal noise in the transducer. The signal-to-noise ratio on a per-proton basis was calculated, determining the minimum number of protons required to generate a detectable pulse. The maximum spatial resolution of the proton-acoustic imaging modality was also estimated from the signal spectrum. Results: The calculated noise in the transducer was 12–28 mPa, depending on the transducer central frequency (70–380 kHz). The minimum number of protons detectable by the technique was on the order of 3–30 × 10{sup 6} per pulse, with 30–800 mGy dose per pulse at the Bragg peak. Wider pulses produced signal with lower acoustic frequencies, with 10 μs pulses producing signals with frequency less than 100 kHz. Conclusions: The proton-acoustic process was simulated using a realistic model and the minimal detection limit was established for proton-acoustic range validation. These limits correspond to a best case scenario with a single large detector with no losses and detector thermal noise as the sensitivity limiting factor. Our study indicated practical proton-acoustic range verification may be feasible with approximately 5 × 10{sup 6} protons/pulse and beam current.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

AGR-5/6/7 Fuel Fabrication Report

The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE NE) and the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification program (referred to as AGR Fuel program hereafter) are pursuing qualification of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particle fuel for use in high temperature gas cooled reactors (HTGRs). The AGR Fuel program was established to provide a fuel qualification data set in support of the licensing and operation of an HTGR. BWX Technologies Nuclear Operations Group (BWXT-NOG) was subcontracted to fabricate the fuel for the AGR program. Several investments and innovations were realized in preparation to fabricate fuel for the AGR-5/6/7 irradiation experiments that brought fuel fabrication fully out of the laboratory and into engineering-scale operations. These included: • Increased the kernel fabrication line capacity and uniformity • Upgraded ancillary support equipment and processes for the tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coating furnace • Demonstrated efficient production of the matrix precursor powder by dry jet milling of co mingled components • Demonstrated an engineering-scale method for quick and efficient overcoating TRISO particles with the matrix precursor • Demonstrated an automated, multi cavity compacting system with a volumetric feed system • Demonstrated a combined-cycle thermal treatment furnace These changes increased production rates of some of these processes by an order of magnitude or more while eliminating the use of flammable solvents, multiple grinding and sorting operations, and the weighing out of individual die charges. Three fuel kernel lots were fabricated for production of the fuel for AGR-5/6/7. The initial lot (J52R-16-39316) was certified to fuel specifications but was not used because the kernels had a high fraction of internal fissures that caused an unacceptable fraction of the kernels to fragment when charged to the coating furnace where the TRISO coating would be deposited. Fragmented kernels increased the dispersed uranium in the particles and produced a worrisome fraction of dimpled particles with an elevated probability of in-pile failure. After some efforts to identify the cause of the fissure formation, two additional lots were produced with much lower fissure fractions, J52R-16-69317 and 69318. The latter kernel lot was a backup to the first and was not needed. Multiple kernel batches were composited to form each of the lots so as to simulate a commercial-scale operation where kernel batches would also be composited. Multiple TRISO coating runs were performed and the product characterized so that several could be composited into a TRISO lot. TRISO lot J52R-16-98005 conformed to all fuel specifications except the mean outer pyrocarbon (OPyC) layer thickness was thinner than specified. Furthermore, it was determined that the TRISO lot had a dispersed uranium fraction (DUF) that might result in the compacts not meeting the DUF specification. A review of the role of the OPyC layer and consequences of the DUF by the Technical Coordination Team and INL concluded that the fuel was acceptable for use in the AGR-5/6/7 irradiation experiment. The TRISO particles were overcoated with the matrix precursor that had been produced in a jet-milling operation. The overcoating was performed in equipment originally designed to coat pharmaceuticals. The overcoating process performed well; producing highly spherical and uniform overcoats requiring little upgrading and no recycle or rework. TRISO particles were overcoated with the matrix precursor to achieve nominal volumetric packing fractions (PFs) of TRISO particles of 25% and 40% for the irradiation experiments. The 40% PF compacts occupy the first and fifth test capsule in the test train while the inner three capsules are loaded with 25% PF compacts. The resinated graphite matrix precursor powder was a derivative of the German A3-27 matrix formulation, which differs from previous AGR irradiation campaigns that used an A3-3 formulation. Jet milling of the matrix powder precursor produced a finer mean graphite particle size than the milling operations used for the A3-3 matrix powder precursor. Changes made in the matrix formula and equipment yielded compacts with significantly higher matrix density than was attained in previous AGR irradiation campaigns. The changes in the matrix formulation and the means of milling the powders also complicated resolution of the three fuel compact defect fractions, DUF, exposed kernel fraction (EKF), and the silicon carbide defect fraction (SDF). Characterization data from BWXT-NOG had some anomalous results, so samples of the fuel compacts and overcoated TRISO particles were also analyzed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to ensure that the defect fractions were accurately characterized.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A large-scale study of soft-errors on GPUs in the field

Parallelism provided by the GPU architecture has enabled domain scientists to simulate physical phenomena at a much faster rate and finer granularity than what was previously possible by CPU-based large-scale clusters. Architecture researchers have been investigating reliability characteristics of GPUs and innovating techniques to increase the reliability of these emerging computing devices. Such efforts are often guided by technology projections and simplistic scientific kernels, and performed using architectural simulators and modeling tools. Lack of large-scale field data impedes the effectiveness of such efforts. This study attempts to bridge this gap by presenting a large-scale field data analysis of GPU reliability. We characterize and quantify different kinds of soft-errors on the Titan supercomputer's GPU nodes. Our study uncovers several interesting and previously unknown insights about the characteristics and impact of soft-errors.

Nie, Bin↗

Assessing Global and Local Radiative Feedbacks Based on AGCM Simulations for 1980–2014/2017

In order to avoid contamination of unobservable and uncertain effective radiative forcing (ERF) on the diagnosis of radiative feedbacks based on short-term climate variability, we verify the Kernel-Gregory feedback calculation method using atmospheric model experiments with prescribed ERF. We show that both clear-sky radiative fluxes and all-sky radiative feedbacks have a closure between model simulations and kernel derivations. A near-zero global mean net cloud feedback is found in the simulation with prescribed ERF, which results in a more negative global net climate feedback, -2 W m -2 K -1 . Consistent with AMIP6 ensemble mean results, the lapse rate feedback is the largest contributor among all feedbacks to temperature amplification over the three poles (Arctic, Antarctic and Tibetan Plateau), followed by surface albedo feedback and Planck feedback deviation from its global mean. Except for the higher surface albedo feedback in the Antarctic, other feedbacks are almost same between the Arctic and Antarctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NUMERICAL CONVERGENCE IN SMOOTHED PARTICLE HYDRODYNAMICS

We study the convergence properties of smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) using numerical tests and simple analytic considerations. Our analysis shows that formal numerical convergence is possible in SPH only in the joint limit N → ∞, h → 0, and N{sub nb} → ∞, where N is the total number of particles, h is the smoothing length, and N{sub nb} is the number of neighbor particles within the smoothing volume used to compute smoothed estimates. Previous work has generally assumed that the conditions N → ∞ and h → 0 are sufficient to achieve convergence, while holding N{sub nb} fixed. We demonstrate that if N{sub nb} is held fixed as the resolution is increased, there will be a residual source of error that does not vanish as N → ∞ and h → 0. Formal numerical convergence in SPH is possible only if N{sub nb} is increased systematically as the resolution is improved. Using analytic arguments, we derive an optimal compromise scaling for N{sub nb} by requiring that this source of error balance that present in the smoothing procedure. For typical choices of the smoothing kernel, we find N{sub nb} ∝N {sup 0.5}. This means that if SPH is to be used as a numerically convergent method, the required computational cost does not scale with particle number as O(N), but rather as O(N {sup 1} {sup +} {sup δ}), where δ ≈ 0.5, with a weak dependence on the form of the smoothing kernel.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Filtered lifting line theory and application to the actuator line model

Lifting line theory describes the cumulative effect of shed vorticity from finite span lifting surfaces. In this work, the theory is reformulated to improve the accuracy of the actuator line model (ALM). This model is a computational tool used to represent lifting surfaces, such as wind-turbine blades in computational fluid dynamics. In ALM, blade segments are represented by means of a Gaussian body force distribution with a prescribed kernel size. Prior analysis has shown that a representation of the blade using an optimal kernel width $\unicode[STIX]{x1D716}^{opt}$ of approximately one quarter of the chord size results in accurate predictions of the velocity field and loads along the blades. Also, simulations have shown that use of the optimal kernel size yields accurate representation of the tip-vortex size and the associated downwash resulting in accurate predictions of the tip losses. In this work, we address the issue of how to represent the effects of finite span wings and tip vortices when using Gaussian body forces with a kernel size larger than the optimal value. This question is relevant in the context of coarse-scale large-eddy simulations that cannot afford the fine resolutions required to resolve the optimal kernel size. For this purpose, we present a filtered lifting line theory for a Gaussian force distribution. Based on the streamwise component of the vorticity transport equation, we develop an analytical model for the induced velocity resulting from the spanwise changes in lift force for an arbitrary kernel scale. The results are used to derive a subfilter-scale velocity model that is used to correct the velocity along the blade when using kernel sizes larger than $\unicode[STIX]{x1D716}^{opt}$ . Tests are performed in large-eddy simulation of flow over fixed wings with constant and elliptic chord distributions using various kernel sizes. Results show that by using the proposed subfilter velocity model, kernel-size independent predictions of lift coefficient and total lift forces agree with those obtained with the optimal kernel size.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Detonability of white dwarf plasma: turbulence models at low densities

We investigate the conditions required to produce self-sustained detonations in turbulent, carbon–oxygen degenerate plasma at low densities. We perform a series of three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of turbulence driven with various degrees of compressibility. The average conditions in the simulations are representative of models of merging binary white dwarfs. We find that material with very short ignition times is abundant in case turbulence is driven compressively. This material forms contiguous structures that persist over many ignition times, and that we identify as prospective detonation kernels. Detailed analysis of prospective kernels reveals that these objects are centrally condensed and their shape is characterized by low curvature, supportive of self-sustained detonations. The key characteristic of the newly proposed detonation mechanism is thus high degree of compressibility of turbulent drive. The simulated detonation kernels have sizes notably smaller than the spatial resolution of any white dwarf merger simulation performed to date. The resolution needed to resolve kernels is 0.1 km. Our results indicate a high probability of detonations in such well-resolved simulations of carbon–oxygen white dwarf mergers. These simulations will likely produce detonations in systems of lower total mass, thus broadening the population of white dwarf binaries capable of producing Type Ia supernovae. Consequently, we expect a downward revision of the lower limit of the total merger mass that is capable of producing a prompt detonation. We review application of the new detonation mechanism to various explosion scenarios of single, Chandrasekhar-mass white dwarfs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The role of geographical spreaders in infectious pattern formation and front propagation speeds

The pattern formation and spatial spread of infectious populations are investigated using a kernel-based Susceptible–Infectious–Recovered (SIR) model applicable across a wide range of basic reproduction numbers R O . The goal is to examine the role of geographical spreaders on transient spatial pattern formation of infectious populations and the associated maximum invasive front speeds c max . In the simulations conducted here, geographical spreaders are defined as a portion of the infected population Φ experiencing high mobility between identical communities. The spatial organization of the infected population and c max are determined when the infections are randomly initiated in space within multiple communities. For small but finite , scaling analysis and numerical simulations in 1-dimension suggest that when the spreading kernel is Gaussian-shaped, where is the inverse of the infectious duration. This finding for agrees with a diffusion-based representation of mobility in 1-D. Numerical simulations in 2-D across wide-ranging suggest that , the variance of the spatial kernel describing mobility of long-distance geographical spreaders across communities, determines the spatial organization of infections across communities. When (long-distance mobility, where is the minimum spatial extent defining adjacent communities), the infectious population will experience a transient but spatially coherent pattern with a wavelength that can be derived from the spreading kernel properties. Moreover, the 2-D simulations for the bounded kernel suggest that attainment of is also dictated by but the magnitude is not sensitive to unlike diffusion-based models.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗