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DOE OSTI2024

A Tale of Two Simulators—A Comparative Human-in-the-Loop Nuclear Power Plant Operations Study on Thermal Power Dispatch for Hydrogen Production

A study was designed for a reconfigurable, full-scale, full-scope nuclear power plant control room simulator to compare two different thermal power dispatch systems, on separate simulator platforms, demonstrating a TPD concept of operation. A TPD system can provide a desirable alternative revenue source for utilities but requires addressing new and unique operational issues. The selection of representative scenarios and the scenario-based experimental design are presented as key elements to capture evidence for validating the developed TPD concept of operations overcome these operational issues.

Ulrich, Thomas A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ground-motions site and event specificity: Insights from assessing a suite of simulated ground motions in the San Francisco Bay Area

This article presents the results of a research that is part of a larger collaborative effort between the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, funded by the US Department of Energy Office of Cybersecurity, Energy Security and Emergency Response. The main objective of this study is to assess a suite of near and far-field simulated ground motions obtained from 20 realizations of an M7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area, California USA, and inform the selection of rupture simulation parameters leading to strong motions. To this aim, comparisons are conducted with NGA-W2 and directivity ground-motion models and a selected population of records. An archetypal steel moment-resisting frame is utilized to assess infrastructure response distributions. The analyses carried out for each simulated event and subdomain with consistent properties in terms of shallow shear-wave velocity proved to be instrumental for better interpreting the differences between simulated motions and empirical models. The main reasons identified for variances between simulations and empirical relationships included (1) directivity effects fully captured by the simulations across the full breadth of rupture models; (2) site vicinity to ruptures that incorporate large-slip patches, particularly if these are in the forward-directivity direction; and (3) presence of geologic structures that can “trap” seismic waves and produce ground motions with large amplitude and long signal duration. The analyses carried out in this work provide a path for interpreting ground-motion site and event specificity obtained from a suite of physics-based simulations, differing only in the rupture model characterization, to inform the selection of simulation scenarios for site-specific engineering analyses under strong excitations. Evidence from this work points to the possibility that current hazard models may underestimate ground-motion intensities in areas where the combined effect of directivity and site conditions results in large ground-motion amplitudes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

How initial conditions-, structural-, and parameter-based model uncertainty interact and influence predictions in permafrost ecosystems: Modeling Archive

This dataset contains model output and input data, as well as source code examples for the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model with the Dynamic Vegetation Model and Dynamic Organic Soil (DVM-DOS-TEM) for the field sites Imnavait creek and the Bonanza creek Long Term Ecological Research Network (LTER). The data covers simulations from the last glacial maximum (LGM) until 2100 for a selection of paleo scenarios, setting the mean temperature of the LGM up to 10°C lower than pre-industrial conditions. The model structure was modulated to represent various model versions, and this dataset contains the relevant changes in the source code. The raw output data, the processed statistical data, the setup and processing scripts as well as parameter value distribution files from a parameter sensitivity analysis are included as well. Model outputs include active layer depth, organic soil carbon, soil layer depths, gross primary productivity (GPP) with and without nitrogen limitation, net primary productivity (NPP), soil liquid water content, heterotrophic, maintenance, and growth respiration, soil temperature, and vegetation carbon (*.nc files). The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hydroelectric Power and Hydrogen Production Integration

Hydropower-based hydrogen production could introduce opportunities for new revenue streams for hydropower plants, including from energy storage and regeneration as well as from sale of the hydrogen product to external markets. Hydrogen-based energy storage and regeneration could also help support Idaho Power’s decarbonization goals by decreasing dependence on fossil-based peaking power plants. Additionally, integration of hydrogen production with hydropower generation could help address the issue of low dissolved oxygen river water conditions that commonly accompany hydropower plant operations by utilizing the oxygen byproduct from an electrolytic hydrogen production process as a resource for mitigation of low dissolved oxygen water conditions. Comprehensive techno-economic analysis of the hybrid hydroelectric and hydrogen energy storage system has revealed critical insights into the pathways and considerations for optimizing the economic value and environmental benefits of such systems. Among the three identified pathways of natural gas blending, regeneration, and direct sale of hydrogen, the direct sale of hydrogen emerges as the most profitable, particularly given the current pricing dynamics of hydrogen and electricity. However, as we anticipate a future grid characterized by higher renewable energy penetration, the landscape may evolve, featuring lower average electricity prices, heightened fluctuations, and more significant seasonal variations. Consequently, the attractiveness of electricity regeneration through hydrogen and the benefits of long-duration hydrogen storage are expected to increase substantially in such a dynamic energy scenario. The careful selection of component sizes within the hybrid system proves to be paramount for ensuring cost-effectiveness. Notably, the size of the hydrogen market has emerged as a critical determinant for the optimal size of the electrolyzer. Hydrogen storage should be sized to meet energy shifting requirements. The appropriate size of the fuel cell/microturbine generator hinges on the shape of electricity prices and the available revenue streams derived from participating in grid services. Striking the right balance among these components is essential for maximizing the overall efficiency and profitability of the hydrogen facility. Furthermore, the by-product of electrolysis, namely oxygen, introduces an additional dimension to the system's functionality. The oxygen generated can be effectively utilized for dissolved oxygen (DO) mitigation, particularly with larger electrolyzer sizes capable of satisfying the complete oxygen demand for this purpose. While the economic benefits derived from saved oxygen purchase costs may be relatively modest compared to other revenue streams, the environmental advantages of repurposing oxygen for DO mitigation could help Idaho Power meet their environmental obligations. In addition to the identified factors shaping the viability of hybrid hydrogen production and hydroelectric generation, it is noteworthy that the integration of hydrogen energy storage offers a unique advantage during unusually wet years. In such periods of increased water inflow, the hydrogen storage capacity serves as a valuable supplement to the reservoir. By utilizing hydrogen energy storage as a complementary reservoir, the system gains flexibility in reservoir management when dealing with fluctuations in water availability.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic Simulation Modeling and Control of a Desiccant Assisted Direct-expansion Air Handling Unit

Desirable built environments demand simultaneous regulation of thermal comfort and indoor air quality (IAQ) with energy-efficient operation of heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HV AC) systems, which involves controls of temperature, humidity and airborne contaminants simultaneously. This paper presents the efforts of dynamic modeling and initial development control strategy for a desiccant-assisted multi-functional air handling unit (AHU) coupled with a direct-expansion rooftop unit (RTU) system, which aims to achieve multiple functions for indoor environment conditioning with energy efficient control. The RTU-AHU system includes a desiccant wheel for dehumidification and a conceptual direct air capture (DAC) filtering device for CO2 regulation. A Modelica-based dynamic model is developed for this conceptual system, and a simple decentralized control strategy is designed, which combines a differential-enthalpy based AHU return-air ratio control, a demand-controlled ventilation, and supply-air temperature humidity control via the RTU and DW controls. The proposed control method is evaluated with the Modelica simulation model for a selected set of scenarios

Pan, Chao↗

DOE OSTI2026

Space Cooling: Recovery, Reuse, Recycling and Supply Chain Impacts

The global cooling sector has undergone tremendous growth in recent years, and cooling demand is projected to double or triple by 2050. Surging air conditioning demand will continue to be driven by increased populations, incomes and occurrences of extreme heat and humidity events. Cooling equipment growth has important pollution and material implications as they are made up of critical metals and precious raw materials - including ferrous metals, copper, aluminum and printed circuit boards composed of copper, silver, gold and palladium - that generate significant electronic waste at end-of-life. Air conditioning equipment also contains fluorinated gas (F-gas) refrigerants, which are potent gases that are thousands of times more heat-trapping than carbon dioxide (CO2). While recovery, reuse, and recycling strategies have been assessed for cold chain and refrigeration, there is currently limited analysis on how these strategies could be adopted for the global space cooling industry and potential supply chain implications. This paper aims to address this research gap by qualitatively evaluating product and material recovery, reuse and recycling frameworks from both demand and supply-side perspectives and with the support of cooling-specific case studies. It also focuses on quantitatively assessing potential energy, emissions and resource benefits of such strategies for space cooling equipment. This paper first analyzes how existing recovery, reuse and recycling frameworks can be applied to space cooling, with emphasis on the demand-side enablers (e.g., innovative business models, supporting policies and regulations) and changes in supply-side production network throughout the supply chain (e.g., design, production and distribution, end-of-life recovery) needed to overcome existing barriers. It will present case studies of innovative business models for space cooling technologies, including reuse and recycling, and how effective refrigerant reclamation and recovery programs have been operationalized. Lastly, the paper will highlight global modeling results of energy, emissions and material recovery from scenario analysis of selected strategies for air conditioners. The findings of this paper are intended to inform the development of product and material recovery, reuse and recycling strategies for a rapidly growing stock of space conditioning equipment by addressing existing organizational, economic and regulatory barriers and potential supply-chain bottlenecks.

Khanna, Nina↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating disease surveillance strategies for early outbreak detection in contact networks with varying community structure

Disease surveillance systems allow public health agencies to respond to emerging diseases before they become widespread. Developing such systems requires identifying optimal ways to monitor in the context of an epidemic outbreak; this problem is known as sensor selection. Contact networks represent the dynamics of interaction in a population and are used to model how a disease spreads in a population and to explore strategies of sensor selection. We evaluated five sensor selection strategies on their ability to provide an early warning of a COVID-like outbreak in synthetic contact networks encapsulated in four network scenarios. Three of these scenarios assessed different aspects of community structure. The fourth scenario employed a contact network representing the population and interactions of 6.8 million people in New York City, constructed from an agent-based simulation using census and transportation data. This scenario exemplifies how sensor selection strategies may perform in a real-world, urban context. Our findings suggest that the choice of the optimal strategy depends heavily on the community structure of the network. Strategies that select highly connected nodes or maximize network coverage are the optimal surveillance strategy for outbreak detection in many network community structures. However, a naive implementation of these strategies may fail to provide an early warning at all—including in the New York City scenario. Moreover, these methods are impractical for real-world use as they require knowledge of the underlying contact network. Instead, a selection strategy that starts with a set of random nodes and then performs a random walk through a chain of neighbors reliably provides early warnings without requiring prior knowledge of the network. We find this method, called “random chain”, to be the most pragmatic for implementation in a real-world disease surveillance context.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

An Empirical Study on the Use of the Rancor Microworld Simulator to Support Full-scope Data Collection

A lack of data has been identified as a major challenge in human reliability analysis (HRA). Accordingly, several institutes and researchers have tried to collect HRA data from different data sources such as actual historical measurements, expert judgements, or simulator studies. While the most recent studies predominantly focus on collecting data using full-scope simulators with actual operators, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has begun to collect HRA data using a simplified simulator, i.e., the Rancor Microworld simulator, with student participants. Full-scope studies have been known to have several intrinsic challenges to securing enough quantity of the data due to many reasons like the high cost for performing experiments or requiring actual operators’ cooperation. The ultimate goal of INL’s effort aims to infer actual operators’ data collected from a full-scope simulator on the basis of microworld data with student subjects as well as collect additional data that could be missed in the full-scope research. As a first step to achieve this goal, this paper projects an experimental plan for investigating the differences in human performance between individuals in two groups: 1) an actual operator and 2) a student when using the Rancor Microworld simulator. A randomized factorial experiment design has been developed with two independent variables, i.e., type of scenario and type of subject. Six human performance measures, i.e., 1) time, 2) error, 3) workload, 4) situation awareness, 5) patterns of attention and 6) the number of manipulations were selected. A couple of scenarios and their procedures available to the Rancor Microworld simulator have been developed.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Indicator-based Approach to Sustainable Management of Natural Resources (Chapter 12)

Assessing the sustainability of natural resource management choices for agricultural and forest lands requires quantification of potential changes to a set of environmental and socioeconomic indicators selected to characterize reference scenarios relative to projected future scenarios. Correctly framing the questions with local stakeholders is a critical first step in the sustainability assessment, and the questions that can be addressed are often limited by data availability. Selecting and prioritizing indicators with stakeholders to address their needs and concerns improves the likelihood of investment in monitoring and evaluation of those indicators over time. Computational techniques for analyzing interactions between the selected indicators are inherently affected by the scales and formats of the assembled indicator datasets. Data analytics have the potential to improve understanding of the potential synergies and tradeoffs involved with meeting multiple environmental and socioeconomic goals simultaneously, but timely and appropriate indicator datasets are not always available—even in this new era of “big data.” Continued improvements in data science and data analytics are needed to broaden understanding and acceptance of problems and to provide valuable information for natural resource management. Advances in these areas will enable society to design future landscapes that meet multiple objectives, including the provisioning of agricultural and forest resources along with a variety of ecosystem services (e.g., clean water and healthy soils).

Parish, Esther↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of thermostat location for multizone commercial building performance

In multi-zone buildings, it is often found that a single shared thermostat controls more than one conditioned zones. Although these shared zones are supposed to have similar thermal needs (e.g., cooling and heating load), in reality, they are not mainly due to different orientations, sizes of windows, occupancy, space types, etc. This can cause unnecessary energy waste or thermal discomfort for the occupants. How to quantify this impact in multizone buildings remains a research gap. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the impact of different sensor (i.e., thermostat) locations for multizone commercial buildings through a comprehensive modeling study. Here, two different scenarios for the sensor locations were selected to evaluate the impact in terms of energy and thermal comfort. The scenario (1) is that one to five sensors distributed among the five zones, but the sensor readings from selected zones will be used for no-sensor zones, which is no-mean sensor scenario. The scenario (2) is that one to five sensors distributed among the five zones, but the average temperature from the shared zones will be used for each of the shared zones, which is a mean sensor scenario. The uncertainty analysis was performed for different sensor location scenarios.(a)The major findings from an energy perspective, for scenario (1), the differences of cooling energy go as high as 17% more or 12% less, compared with the baseline. For heating energy consumption, the discrepancies go as high as 51% more or 52% less, compared with baseline. For site energy consumption, the discrepancies go as high as 3.2% more or 3.2% less, compared with baseline. For fan energy consumption, the discrepancies go as high as 3.2% more or as low as 1.0% less, compared with baseline. For scenario (2), the discrepancies of cooling energy go as high as 3% more, or 0.5% less, compared with the baseline. For heating energy consumption, the discrepancies, are go as high as 10.1% more or as low as 3.0% less, compared with baseline. For site energy consumption, the discrepancies go as high as 1.3% more or 0.3% less, compared with baseline. For fan energy consumption, the discrepancies go as high as 3.1% more or as low as 1.0% less, compared with baseline.(b) In terms of the indoor thermal comfort, for the no-mean-sensor scenarios, the discrepancies of unmet hours for cooling mode can be as high as 1,200 h, compared with the baseline. The discrepancies of unmet hours for heating mode can be as high as 740 h, compared with the baseline. For the mean-sensor scenarios, the discrepancies of unmet hours for cooling mode can be as high as 750 h, compared with the baseline. The discrepancies of unmet hours for heating mode can be as high as 50 h, compared with the baseline.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Transmission-distribution long-term volt-var planning considering reactive power support capability of distributed PV

High penetration of grid-edge, inverter-based photovoltaic (PV) can cause significant voltage fluctuations not only at the distribution but also at the sub-transmission levels due to PV output intermittency. Traditional reactive power planning approaches do not consider intermittency, nor the possibility of coordinating the control of existing and future volt-ampere reactive resources. This paper proposes a reactive power planning tool for sub-transmission systems to mitigate voltage violations and fluctuations caused by high PV penetration and intermittency with a minimum investment cost. The planning tool coordinates with an optimization-based volt-var operational tool for: a) modeling the coordination of all existing var assets in both sub-transmission and distribution systems to reduce the need of new equipment, and b)selecting a set of scenarios with voltage violations, derived from PV intermittency c) testing the final investment decision. The tool obtains an investment need for each intermittency scenario with a proposed optimal power-flow framework with efficient techniques to handle a high number of discrete variables. Two options are provided for final planning decision: i) a conservative direct combination of investment need solutions and ii) a machine learning-based selection of representative investment needs at most time steps. The final investment decision options are verified using a realistic large-scale sub-transmission system and 5-minute PV and load data. The results show a significant voltage performance improvement with a lower investment cost for additional var equipment compared to conventional approaches.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Select Proliferation Studies on TRISO-fueled, Heat-Pipe-cooled Microreactors

Nuclear microreactors carry the potential to open up new markets for the nuclear industry, as their expected cost competitiveness in non-traditional market segments (e.g., mines, military bases, extraterrestrial surfaces, and remote areas), and their inherent safety features make them deployable when other power sources are unavailable or difficult to exploit. For countries that have not traditionally participated in nuclear power, microreactors represent a clean energy solution [1]. However, their use, especially in non-weapons states, may entail challenges in terms of maintaining international nuclear safeguards [2]. Furthermore, the deployment locations where microreactors may prove most cost competitive would be difficult to access by state and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors [3]. In addition to the isolated nature of potential deployment sites, the low-power characteristic of microreactors suggests that numerous microreactors would need to be deployed to meet energy demands. That, coupled with the unique physics of many current microreactor designs, opens up a new area of research with respect to nonproliferation and safeguards concerns [2]. Whereas traditional facilities are inspected as isolated cases when looking for signs of diversion or misuse; microreactors may need to be assessed in the context of the entire fleet to which they belong. International safeguards necessitate timely detection of any significant quantities (SQs) of material that are being diverted (e.g., 1 SQ of special nuclear material diverted over the course of a 1-year period) [4]. For low-enriched uranium, the IAEA defines 1 SQ as corresponding to 75 kg of 235U. The purpose of the present paper is to explore the detectability threshold for material diversion in microreactors by relying on critical control drum angles, excess reactivity, and the reactor lifetime as the selected operational parameters. For this assessment, a heat-pipe-cooled microreactor was regarded as the base design. While the conclusions reached in this paper are not readily extendable to the design of actual microreactors, the analysis herein enables conclusions to be drawn regarding the level of accuracy needed for reference calculations in order to detect diversion scenarios by utilizing the selected operational parameters (i.e., mainly control drum angles, critical insertion angle, and the reactor lifetime).

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Performance analysis and comparison of data-driven models for predicting indoor temperature in multi-zone commercial buildings

Building thermal models, which characterize the properties of a building’s envelope and thermal mass, are essential for accurate indoor temperature and cooling/heating demand prediction. Because of their flexibility and ease of use, data-driven models are increasingly used. Here, this study compared and analyzed the performance of gray-box (resistance-capacitance) and black-box (recurrent neural network) models for predicting indoor air temperature in a real multi-zone commercial building. The developed resistance-capacitance model served as a benchmark model for which full sets of temporal data and building information were used as inputs. The recurrent neural network models were trained and tested assuming various available types and amounts of temporal data and known building physical information to investigate the effects of data and information availability. Feature importance analysis was conducted to select the key variables for different prediction targets under different scenarios. This research provides guidance in selecting an appropriate building thermal response modeling method based on the measured data availability, building physical information, and application.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

A novel physics-based and data-supported microstructure model for part-scale simulation of laser powder bed fusion of Ti-6Al-4V

The elasto-plastic material behavior, material strength and failure modes of metals fabricated by additive manufacturing technologies are significantly determined by the underlying process-specific microstructure evolution. In this work a novel physics-based and data-supported phenomenological microstructure model for Ti-6Al-4V is proposed that is suitable for the part-scale simulation of laser powder bed fusion processes. The model predicts spatially homogenized phase fractions of the most relevant microstructural species, namely the stable β-phase, the stable α s -phase as well as the metastable Martensite α m -phase, in a physically consistent manner. In particular, the modeled microstructure evolution, in form of diffusion-based and non-diffusional transformations, is a pure consequence of energy and mobility competitions among the different species, without the need for heuristic transformation criteria as often applied in existing models. The mathematically consistent formulation of the evolution equations in rate form renders the model suitable for the practically relevant scenario of temperature- or time-dependent diffusion coefficients, arbitrary temperature profiles, and multiple coexisting phases. Due to its physically motivated foundation, the proposed model requires only a minimal number of free parameters, which are determined in an inverse identification process considering a broad experimental data basis in form of time-temperature transformation diagrams. Subsequently, the predictive ability of the model is demonstrated by means of continuous cooling transformation diagrams, showing that experimentally observed characteristics such as critical cooling rates emerge naturally from the proposed microstructure model, instead of being enforced as heuristic transformation criteria. Eventually, the proposed model is exploited to predict the microstructure evolution for a realistic selective laser melting application scenario and for the cooling/quenching process of a Ti-6Al-4V cube of practically relevant size. Numerical results confirm experimental observations that Martensite is the dominating microstructure species in regimes of high cooling rates, e.g., due to highly localized heat sources or in near-surface domains, while a proper manipulation of the temperature field, e.g., by preheating the base-plate in selective laser melting, can suppress the formation of this metastable phase.

Inverse parameter identification↗

DOE OSTI2022

Model Assumptions and Data Characteristics: Impacts on Domain Adaptation in Building Segmentation

Studies on domain adaptation (DA) for remote sensing (RS) imagery analysis lack consistency in selection and description of evaluation scenarios. Without properly characterizing datasets, model assumptions, and evaluation scenarios, it is difficult to objectively compare DA methods and reach conclusions about their suitability across different applications. With this motivation, this work seeks to empirically assess to which extent the interaction between data characteristics and model assumptions influences the effectiveness of DA methods. Using the widely explored task of building footprint segmentation as a case study, we perform a large-scale study across over 200 DA scenarios that include variations across view angles, areas observed, and sensors used for data acquisition. Rather than adopting different model architectures or optimization criteria, we contrast the performances of two DA methods based on adversarial learning that differ only in their assumptions about source and target domains. Informed by metadata and data characteristics unveiled using traditional computer vision (CV) techniques as well as pretrained deep models, we provide a detailed meta-analysis of experiments highlighting the importance of accurately considering data assumptions for DA in RS segmentation tasks. As demonstrated by a “cherry-picking” exercise, different claims regarding which model is best could be made by selecting different subsets of evaluation scenarios. While well-calibrated assumptions can be beneficial, mismatching assumptions can lead to negative biases in DA applications. Furthermore, this study intends to motivate the community toward more consistent evaluation protocols while providing recommendations and insights toward creating novel benchmark datasets, documenting data characteristics, application-specific knowledge, and model assumptions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Clustering-Based Scenario Generation Framework for Power Market Simulation with Wind Integration

A critical step in stochastic optimization models of power system analysis is to select a set of appropriate scenarios and significant numbers of scenario generation methods exist in the literature. This paper develops a clustering based scenario generation method, which aims to improve the performance of existing scenario generation techniques by grouping a set of correlated wind sites into clusters according to their cross-correlations. Copula based models are utilized to model spatiotemporal correlations and the Gibbs sampling is then used to generate scenarios for day-ahead markets. Our results show that the generated scenarios based on clustered wind sites outperform existing approaches in terms of reliability and sharpness and can reduce the total computational time for scenario generation and reduction significantly. The clustering-based framework can therefore provide a better support for real-world market simulations with high wind penetration.

data visualization↗

DOE OSTI2025

Performance evaluation of automated data-driven feature extraction and selection methods for practical and scalable building energy consumption prediction models

Here, this study quantifies the impact of automated feature engineering methods (feature extraction and selection) on the quality and accuracy of machine learning models that predict building energy consumption. The case study compares model performance for three main scenarios: baseline (no feature extraction and selection), feature extraction only, and feature extraction combined with feature selection (filter and/or wrapper methods) for fully trained machine learning models for 200 metered/sub-metered energy measurements across 118 real buildings. For consistency, the same machine learning model architecture (a black box deep learning neural network with probabilistic forecast output) was used for all scenarios. Based on results, all feature engineering methods provided noticeable prediction accuracy improvements (e.g., 29%-68% median prediction improvement) compared to baseline scenarios. However, in this application, feature selection methods provide little practical value due to their limited performance gains and high computational cost. Smarter algorithm development supported by better computational environments will be needed before feature selection methods can reliably and efficiently improve predictive model performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Physics vs structure: A systematic benchmark of learning strategies for multi-zone building thermal dynamics

Recent advances in physics-informed and data-driven machine learning promise improved thermal models for advanced building control, yet there is limited quantitative evidence on when added physics structure and architectural complexity are beneficial. Here, this work presents a systematic benchmark of five representative system identification methods for modeling multi-zone building thermal dynamics: linear state-space models, multi-layer perceptrons, neural state-space models, neural ordinary differential equations, and physically-consistent neural networks. The methods are evaluated across multiple data regimes and zone coupling strategies. Using a high-fidelity multi-zone commercial building emulator, we examine short-term and long-term prediction accuracy, computational efficiency, and ease of development. Our results reveal critical trade-offs between prediction performance, model complexity, and physical consistency. We demonstrate that decoupled, nonlinear black-box models consistently outperform coupled physics-constrained architectures in both predictive accuracy and out-of-distribution robustness in majority of the test cases for the building type considered in the study. Our findings quantify the cost of complexity in building thermal modeling and provide concrete, actionable, scenario-based guidelines for selecting model classes for control-oriented applications.

Building thermal modeling↗