SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “scenario development”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 °C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 °C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.d-2090s.

Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMI↗

NASA NTRS1992

Electric propulsion for lunar exploration and lunar base development

Using electric propulsion to deliver materials to lunar orbit for the development and construction of a lunar base was investigated. Because the mass of the base and its life-cycle resupply mass are large, high specific impulse propulsion systems may significantly reduce the transportation system mass and cost. Three electric propulsion technologies (arcjet, ion, and magnetoplasmadynamic (MPD) propulsion) were compared with oxygen/hydrogen propulsion for a lunar base development scenario. Detailed estimates of the orbital transfer vehicles' (OTV's) masses and their propellant masses are presented. The fleet sizes for the chemical and electric propulsion systems are estimated. Ion and MPD propulsion systems enable significant launch mass savings over O2/H2 propulsion. Because of the longer trip time required for the low-thrust OTV's, more of them are required to perform the mission model. By offloading the lunar cargo from the manned O2/H2 OTV missions onto the electric propulsion OTV's, a significant reduction of the low Earth orbit (LEO) launch mass is possible over the 19-year base development period.

Palaszewski, Bryan↗

DOE OSTI2024

Progress in direct recycling of spent lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) cathodes

With the widespread use of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) in portable electronics and electric vehicles (EVs), the end-of-life (EOL) LIBs are projected to reach 1336 GWh by 2040 under the sustainable development scenario. Proper recycling is urgently needed to minimize the release of hazardous waste and reduce mining activities by reintroducing critical minerals into the supply chain. Lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (LiNi x Mn y Co z O 2 , NMCs) cathodes have become dominant in the LIB market, especially with the increasing production of EVs, which are also the most valuable components in EOL LIBs. Unlike pyrometallurgical and/or hydrometallurgical methods, which convert spent NMCs into metals or metal compounds, direct recycling technologies aim to maximize the value of spent cathodes by restoring their degraded structure and composition. Furthermore, this review summarizes direct recycling methods for NMC cathodes published in the last decade and provides insights into the challenges and future development of direct recycling techniques.

Cathode↗

NASA NTRS1987

The evolution of the geostationary platform concept

The paper will review the conceptual development over the last decade of the use of very large spacecraft, i.e., 'platforms', in geostationary orbit. Geostationary platforms were originally conceived as an efficient means of increasing the capacity at a point in the geostationary orbital arc. Also, geostationary platforms have been suggested for mounting very large antennas as will be required for mobile communications, or high power sources as will be required for broadcast services to small terminals. More recently these 'large satellite' platforms were also envisioned as including earth observation and other science payloads. The advent of the Space Station, which can provide a staging base for platform assembly and test in space at low earth orbit prior to launch to geostationary earth orbit, will introduce a new dimension to practical platform design. This paper describes the evolution of concepts for geostationary platforms over the last decade based on both communications and science user scenarios developed worldwide.

Edelson, Burton I.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Aviation 2072: Scenario Planning for Wicked Problems

The world is changing rapidly. And with it, so are the potential futures for humanity. Many of these potential futures pose hidden threats, while others offer new opportunities for aviation and the broader aerospace community. To mitigate these risks and capitalize on opportunities, organizations must work to deeply understand these potential future scenarios and uncover any underlying drivers. Organizations will be more equipped and informed when making strategic investment decisions by better understanding these threats, opportunities, and drivers . The future scenarios and their threats and opportunities described in this paper were identified through a series of extensive brainstorming workshops, collectively titled MADNESS (Mapping for Aviation Driven by Needs Emergence and Satiating Society). These workshops engaged NASA civil servants and contractors with diverse backgrounds through a facilitated process of future scenario development and critique. The participants were led through exercises focused on a time horizon spanning from 2022 to 2072 and on problems that aviation might solve and or create during this period. From the broad results, two patterns of critical uncertainty emerged: “availability” (scarcity versus abundance) and “transparency” (openness versus security and privacy). The successful iteration and ideation across the MADNESS workshops also suggests a repeatable mechanism for strategic risk exploration across a variety of NASA and industry stakeholders.

Mapping↗

NASA NTRS1990

Automation and robotics human performance

The scope of this report is limited to the following: (1) assessing the feasibility of the assumptions for crew productivity during the intra-vehicular activities and extra-vehicular activities; (2) estimating the appropriate level of automation and robotics to accomplish balanced man-machine, cost-effective operations in space; (3) identifying areas where conceptually different approaches to the use of people and machines can leverage the benefits of the scenarios; and (4) recommending modifications to scenarios or developing new scenarios that will improve the expected benefits. The FY89 special assessments are grouped into the five categories shown in the report. The high level system analyses for Automation & Robotics (A&R) and Human Performance (HP) were performed under the Case Studies Technology Assessment category, whereas the detailed analyses for the critical systems and high leverage development areas were performed under the appropriate operations categories (In-Space Vehicle Operations or Planetary Surface Operations). The analysis activities planned for the Science Operations technology areas were deferred to FY90 studies. The remaining activities such as analytic tool development, graphics/video demonstrations and intelligent communicating systems software architecture were performed under the Simulation & Validations category.

Mah, Robert W.↗

DOE OSTI2025

E3SM‐GCAM: A Synchronously Coupled Human Component in the E3SM Earth System Model Enables Novel Human‐Earth Feedback Research

Abstract Modeling human‐environment feedbacks is critical for assessing the effectiveness of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies under a changing climate. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) now includes a human component, with the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) at its core, that is synchronously coupled with the land and atmosphere components through the E3SM coupling software. Terrestrial productivity is passed from E3SM to GCAM to make climate‐responsive land use and CO 2 emission projections for the next 5‐year period, which are interpolated and passed to E3SM annually. Key variables affected by the incorporation of these feedbacks include land use/cover change, crop prices, terrestrial carbon, local surface temperature, and climate extremes. Regional differences are more pronounced than global differences because the effects are driven primarily by differences in land use. This novel system enables a new type of scenario development and provides a powerful modeling framework that facilitates the addition of other feedbacks between these models. This system has the potential to explore how human responses to climate change impacts in a variety of sectors, including heating/cooling energy demand, water management, and energy production, may alter emissions trajectories and Earth system changes. Plain Language Summary Earth system models help us understand how humans are changing the climate. Currently, these models do not include human systems, so predetermined greenhouse gas, aerosol, and land use change data are input to these models. These data do not reflect human responses to changes projected by Earth system models. We have added a human component to an Earth system model to represent human responses to environmental change and calculate corresponding greenhouse gas and land use change data instead of using predetermined data. Including this human component changes projections of land use, land carbon storage, and regional climate. Key Points We have incorporated a novel, advanceable human component in an Earth system model to simulate human‐Earth feedbacks Including terrestrial productivity feedbacks from the Earth to the human systems affects land change, crop prices, carbon, and climate Regional effects of including terrestrial productivity feedbacks are greater than global effects because land change is the main driver

E3SM↗

DOE OSTI2025

Latent space mapping: Revolutionizing predictive models for divertor plasma detachment control

The inherent complexity of boundary plasma, characterized by multi-scale and multi-physics challenges, has historically restricted high-fidelity simulations to scientific research due to their intensive computational demands. Consequently, routine applications such as discharge control and scenario development have relied on faster but less accurate empirical methods. This work introduces DivControlNN, a novel machine-learning-based surrogate model designed to address these limitations by enabling quasi-real-time predictions (i.e., ~ 0.2 ms) of boundary and divertor plasma behavior. Trained on over 70,000 2D UEDGE simulations from KSTAR tokamak equilibria, DivControlNN employs latent space mapping to efficiently represent complex divertor plasma states, achieving a computational speed-up of over 10 8 compared to traditional simulations while maintaining a relative error below 20% for key plasma property predictions. During the 2024 KSTAR experimental campaign, a prototype detachment control system powered by DivControlNN successfully demonstrated detachment control on its first attempt, even for a new tungsten divertor configuration and without any fine-tuning. These results highlight the transformative potential of DivControlNN in overcoming diagnostic challenges in future fusion reactors by providing fast, robust, and reliable predictions for advanced integrated control systems.

Artificial neural networks↗

DOE OSTI2025

A review of collaborative studies between the NSTX/-U and MAST/-U spherical tokamaks

The National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) at the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory in the United States, and the mega ampere spherical tokamak (MAST) at the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority in the United Kingdom, and their respective upgrades (NSTX-U and MAST-U) are two MAST fusion devices that have operated roughly over the past two decades. Both devices have made significant contributions to understanding spherical tokamak (ST) plasma physics, and fusion plasmas in general, and both have contributed data to multi-machine database studies. Several diagnostics have been physically moved from one machine to the other by diagnostic teams working on both devices. Collaboration has benefited both research teams in the areas of operational expertise, scenario development, and equilibrium reconstruction techniques. More focused comparative studies between the two devices have been pursued over the years in many areas as well, including stability calculations, disruption characterization, pedestal and edge localized mode stability, confinement and transport, energetic particles, and heating and current drive modelling. Together NSTX/-U and MAST/-U set the stage for the future of STs, which is entering the phase of design of demonstration power plant devices.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

WEST L-mode record long pulses guided by predictions using Integrated Modeling

A new record was set on the WEST Tokamak, designed to operate long duration plasmas in a tungsten (W) environment, with an injected energy of 1.15 GJ and a plasma duration 364s. Scenario development was supported by integrated modeling using the High Fidelity Plasma Simulator (HFPS), the European IMAS-coupled version of JETTO/JINTRAC, which integrates physics-driven modules into a unified framework. In particular, a reduced model for Lower-Hybrid heating and Current-Drive (LHCD) and the quasi-linear turbulent transport model TGLF are crucial for long pulses predictions up to the Last Closed Flux Surface (LCFS). Using this workflow, a 100 s reference discharge was modeled and plasma kinetic profiles and loop voltage were quantitatively well matched. In preparation for the recent long duration experiments, non-inductive current-drive actuators (I P , n e , P LHCD ) were varied to determine the operational domain going towards fully non-inductive discharges. In particular, decreasing the plasma current is shown to ease the access to such conditions, with a careful monitoring of (n e , P LHCD ) to avoid machine limitations. In addition, post-prediction experiments conducted within the investigated parameter range validated the predicted dependencies and were shown to be in quantitative agreement. Exploratory work on the use of ECCD for MHD stability purpose is also introduced.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sustainable forest management for carbon, wood and biodiversity must consider natural disturbance regimes

Abstract Forests provide multiple benefits that include sequestering carbon, supporting biodiversity, and providing wood products. Managing temperate forests to achieve these benefits sustainably is challenging given the legacy of past human impacts, the complexity of forest development, and increasing but unpredictable disturbances. These intricacies prompted debate about the most effective management of temperate forests to achieve climate mitigation while sustaining forest productivity, regeneration, and diversity. Most research focused on management impacts under relatively stable environmental conditions, whereas forests are facing increasingly frequent and more severe climatic and biotic disturbances. Here, we used a regionally calibrated forest growth model to simulate the effects of forest management on carbon, biodiversity, and wood production under prevalent natural disturbances in the northeastern US. We developed scenarios combining forest management and disturbance regimes based on assumptions of species-specific tree regeneration and mortality rates. We compared passive management with no cutting that prioritizes maintaining existing forest trees with two common regional harvest practices: exploitative timber harvest that prioritizes short-term wood production and regenerative timber harvest that prioritizes regenerating biodiverse native forest tree seedlings. In the absence of natural disturbance, no cutting provides 41% higher forest carbon storage and 50% higher tree structural diversity after 100 years than exploitative or regenerative practices. The presence of drought, windstorm, pest, and disease disturbances altered these outcomes. Regenerative forest management provides 25% higher forest carbon storage and 26% higher tree structural diversity after 100 years than no cutting. Our results demonstrate that wood products and their carbon storage and fossil emission avoidance are important for determining the total climate benefits of forest management under natural disturbances. Our findings highlight that natural disturbance regimes should be considered when selecting management to promote multiple forest benefits, suggesting the need for tailored as opposed to one-size-fits-all policies to sustainably manage temperate forests worldwide.

Liu, Weier (ORCID:0000000265914239)↗

DOE OSTI2025

ReVise: A Human-AI Interface for Incremental Algorithmic Recourse

The recent adoption of artificial intelligence in socio-technical systems raises concerns about the black-box nature of the resulting decisions in fields such as hiring, finance, admissions, etc. If data subjects—such as job applicants, loan applicants, and students—receive an unfavorable outcome, they may be interested in algorithmic recourse, which involves updating certain features to yield a more favorable result when re-evaluated by algorithmic decision-making. Unfortunately, when individuals do not fully understand the incremental steps needed to change their circumstances, they risk following misguided paths that can lead to significant, long-term adverse consequences. Existing recourse approaches focus exclusively on the final recourse goal but neglect the possible incremental steps to reach the goal with real-life constraints, user preferences, and model artifacts. To address this gap, we formulate a visual analytic workflow for incremental recourse planning in collaboration with AI/ML experts and contribute an interactive visualization interface that helps data subjects efficiently navigate the recourse alternatives and make an informed decision. We also present one of the many usage scenarios, developed during exploratory feedback sessions with twelve graduate students using a real-world dataset, which demonstrates that our approach can be instrumental for data subjects in choosing a suitable recourse path.

algorithmic recourse↗

DOE OSTI2026

Williston basin associated co 2 storage field laboratory

The Williston Basin Associated CO 2 Storage Field Laboratory (WBCFL), led by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) in partnership with Denbury (now ExxonMobil), was established to advance understanding of CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and associated geologic CO 2 storage in the Williston Basin. The specific objective of the WBCFL was to conduct field and laboratory activities to inform decisionmakers regarding the 1) efficacy of associated storage in stacked geologic reservoirs during EOR operations; 2) CO 2 injectivity, oil production, and storage in residual oil zones (ROZs); 3) use of a novel CO 2 storage monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA) technology (active seismoelectric [ASE] monitoring), and 4) life cycle and techno-economic factors for EOR development scenarios targeting ROZs. The project location was the Pennel Field in southeast Montana, which is part of the Cedar Creek Anticline (CCA) geologic structure within the Williston Basin.

02 PETROLEUM↗

NASA NTRS1983

Study of a tracking and data acquisition system for the 1990's. Volume 3: TDAS Communication Mission Model

A parametric description of the communication channels required between the user spacecraft to be supported and the user ground data systems is developed. Scenarios of mission models, which reflect a range of free flyers vs space platform usage as well as levels of NASA activity and potential support for military missions, and potential channel requirements which identify: (1) bounds on TDAS forward and return link data communication demand, and (2) the additional demand for providing navigation/tracking support are covered.

Mccreary, T.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Update of Space Station Freedom design

The Space Station system baseline concept and various development scenarios that would meet the Space Station design requirements are examined. Consideration is given to the rephrasing of the Space Station assembly process to provide a permanently-manned station with reduced early year funding, resulting in a completed assembly which includes the expected station capabilities. The contents of the baseline concept and the proposed assembly plan are compared. Configurational, functional, and assembly tradeoffs are discussed. The baseline configuration and rephased configurations are illustrated and the flight sequence and launch dates of the rephased assembly sequence are listed.

Sisson, James M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The pulsating cusp

Recent observations at the magnetopause and of the high-latitude ionosphere suggest that the cusp may be pulzed in nature. Ground-based observations in the dayside auroral oval reveal transient optical features accompanied by bursts of enhanced plasma flow. Also, recent interpretation has shown cusp satellite data to be consistent with a burst of enhanced reconnection. These observations are used to produce a scenario in which both the satellite and ground-based observations can be fitted. The scenario developed is based on the flux transfer event (FTE) models of Southwood et al. (1988) and Scholer (1988) and shows that the signatures, at both low and high altitudes, can be interpreted in terms of FTEs.

Smith, M. F.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Subsurface microbial habitats on Mars

We developed scenarios for shallow and deep subsurface cryptic niches for microbial life on Mars. Such habitats could have considerably prolonged the persistence of life on Mars as surface conditions became increasingly inhospitable. The scenarios rely on geothermal hot spots existing below the near or deep subsurface of Mars. Recent advances in the comparatively new field of deep subsurface microbiology have revealed previously unsuspected rich aerobic and anaerobic microbal communities far below the surface of the Earth. Such habitats, protected from the grim surface conditions on Mars, could receive warmth from below and maintain water in its liquid state. In addition, geothermally or volcanically reduced gases percolating from below through a microbiologically active zone could provide the reducing power needed for a closed or semi-closed microbial ecosystem to thrive.

Boston, P. J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Impacts of sociopolitical conditions

Space development scenarios and the choice of technologies to carry them out depend upon the future social, economic, and political factors. A brief discussion concerning the impact of sociopolitical conditions on space exploration is presented. Some of the topics mentioned include: space weapons/warfare, international cooperation, NASA's Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) Program, and superpower rivelry.

Finney, Ben R.↗