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NASA NTRS2011

Statistical Issues for Uncontrolled Reentry Hazards Empirical Tests of the Predicted Footprint for Uncontrolled Satellite Reentry Hazards

A number of statistical tools have been developed over the years for assessing the risk of reentering objects to human populations. These tools make use of the characteristics (e.g., mass, material, shape, size) of debris that are predicted by aerothermal models to survive reentry. The statistical tools use this information to compute the probability that one or more of the surviving debris might hit a person on the ground and cause one or more casualties. The statistical portion of the analysis relies on a number of assumptions about how the debris footprint and the human population are distributed in latitude and longitude, and how to use that information to arrive at realistic risk numbers. Because this information is used in making policy and engineering decisions, it is important that these assumptions be tested using empirical data. This study uses the latest database of known uncontrolled reentry locations measured by the United States Department of Defense. The predicted ground footprint distributions of these objects are based on the theory that their orbits behave basically like simple Kepler orbits. However, there are a number of factors in the final stages of reentry - including the effects of gravitational harmonics, the effects of the Earth s equatorial bulge on the atmosphere, and the rotation of the Earth and atmosphere - that could cause them to diverge from simple Kepler orbit behavior and possibly change the probability of reentering over a given location. In this paper, the measured latitude and longitude distributions of these objects are directly compared with the predicted distributions, providing a fundamental empirical test of the model assumptions.

Matney, Mark↗

NASA NTRS1988

Mission design challenges posed by the Voyager 2 Neptune encounter

A major challenge for the Voyager 2 Neptune encounter lies in the detailed design of a trajectory that achieves science objectives at the planet as well as at its large satellite, Triton. This achievement demands a close flyby of the primary, whereas the planet's great distance makes such an undertaking especially challenging. Changing estimates and uncertainties of parameters characterizing the Neptune environment, particularly ring, atmosphere and radiation models, affect the mission design. These effects are investigated and trade-offs among candidate trajectories are examined with respect to spacecraft performance, avoidance of risk and science objective achievement.

Cesarone, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Cost, capability, and risk for planetary operations

The three key factors for flight projects - cost, capability, and risk - are examined with respect to their interplay, the uplink process, cost drivers, and risk factors. Scientific objectives are translated into a computer program during the uplink process, and examples are given relating to the Voyager Interstellar Mission, Galileo, and the Comet Rendezvous Asteroid Flyby. The development of a multimission sequence system based on these uplinks is described with reference to specific subsystems such as the pointer and the sequence generator. Operational cost drivers include mission, flight-system, and ground-system complexity, uplink traffic, and work force. Operational risks are listed in terms of the mission operations, the environment, and the mission facilities. The uplink process can be analyzed in terms of software development, and spacecraft operability is shown to be an important factor from the initial stages of spacecraft development.

Mclaughlin, William I.↗

NASA NTRS2011

How Engineers Really Think About Risk: A Study of JPL Engineers

The objectives of this work are: To improve risk assessment practices as used during the mission design process by JPL's concurrent engineering teams. (1) Developing effective ways to identify and assess mission risks (2) Providing a process for more effective dialog between stakeholders about the existence and severity of mission risks (3) Enabling the analysis of interactions of risks across concurrent engineering roles.

risk identification↗

NASA NTRS2016

Statistical Issues for Calculating Reentry Hazards

A number of statistical tools have been developed over the years for assessing the risk of reentering object to human populations. These tools make use of the characteristics (e.g., mass, shape, size) of debris that are predicted by aerothermal models to survive reentry. This information, combined with information on the expected ground path of the reentry, is used to compute the probability that one or more of the surviving debris might hit a person on the ground and cause one or more casualties. The statistical portion of this analysis relies on a number of assumptions about how the debris footprint and the human population are distributed in latitude and longitude, and how to use that information to arrive at realistic risk numbers. This inevitably involves assumptions that simplify the problem and make it tractable, but it is often difficult to test the accuracy and applicability of these assumptions. This paper builds on previous IAASS work to re-examine many of these theoretical assumptions, including the mathematical basis for the hazard calculations, and outlining the conditions under which the simplifying assumptions hold. This study also employs empirical and theoretical information to test these assumptions, and makes recommendations how to improve the accuracy of these calculations in the future.

Matney, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2016

Statistical Issues for Calculating Reentry Hazards

A number of statistical tools have been developed over the years for assessing the risk of reentering object to human populations. These tools make use of the characteristics (e.g., mass, shape, size) of debris that are predicted by aerothermal models to survive reentry. This information, combined with information on the expected ground path of the reentry, is used to compute the probability that one or more of the surviving debris might hit a person on the ground and cause one or more casualties. The statistical portion of this analysis relies on a number of assumptions about how the debris footprint and the human population are distributed in latitude and longitude, and how to use that information to arrive at realistic risk numbers. This inevitably involves assumptions that simplify the problem and make it tractable, but it is often difficult to test the accuracy and applicability of these assumptions. This paper builds on previous IAASS work to re-examine one of these theoretical assumptions.. This study employs empirical and theoretical information to test the assumption of a fully random decay along the argument of latitude of the final orbit, and makes recommendations how to improve the accuracy of this calculation in the future.

Bacon, John B.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SafeMAP: Safe Multi-Agent Planning Framework Based on Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

This paper proposes a risk-aware framework for Safe Multi-Agent Planning (SafeMAP) that unifies disparate models for multi-agent systems in a Markovian process that allows for simultaneous system health monitoring, decision making under uncertainty, and multi-agent system collaboration. As operations beyond low earth orbit mature, there is an increased need for autonomous cyber-physical systems with onboard decision making capabilities. Multi-agent cyber-physical systems in particular offer the potential of increased efficiency, resiliency, and mission capabilities for future applications such as multi-rover terrain operations, distributed satellite operations, and management of smart lunar habitats. SafeMAP utilizes physics-based models of each agent and the relevant components, probability models of the environment and component operational states, and reward models for mission-specific objectives such as scientific task completion or resource consumption. The output of SafeMAP is a set of mission plans that satisfy the mission objective under specified risk/reward constraints. A readable interpretation of each of these generated mission plans is provided as an additional output. SafeMAP has been demonstrated on a simulated case study involving a four-rover system performing surface mapping operations and science tasks. Results of this paper demonstrate SafeMAP’s ability to generate explainable mission plans that satisfy the mission objective while minimizing risk under nominal and off-nominal conditions.

Mohammad Hejase↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SafeMAP: Safe Multi-Agent Planning framework based on Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Mohammad Hejase↗

NASA NTRS2005

On Space Exploration and Human Error: A Paper on Reliability and Safety

NASA space exploration should largely address a problem class in reliability and risk management stemming primarily from human error, system risk and multi-objective trade-off analysis, by conducting research into system complexity, risk characterization and modeling, and system reasoning. In general, in every mission we can distinguish risk in three possible ways: a) known-known, b) known-unknown, and c) unknown-unknown. It is probably almost certain that space exploration will partially experience similar known or unknown risks embedded in the Apollo missions, Shuttle or Station unless something alters how NASA will perceive and manage safety and reliability

Bell, David G.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Integrated risk/cost planning models for the US Air Traffic system

A prototype network planning model for the U.S. Air Traffic control system is described. The model encompasses the dual objectives of managing collision risks and transportation costs where traffic flows can be related to these objectives. The underlying structure is a network graph with nonseparable convex costs; the model is solved efficiently by capitalizing on its intrinsic characteristics. Two specialized algorithms for solving the resulting problems are described: (1) truncated Newton, and (2) simplicial decomposition. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated using data collected from a control center in the Midwest. Computational results with different computer systems are presented, including a vector supercomputer (CRAY-XMP). The risk/cost model has two primary uses: (1) as a strategic planning tool using aggregate flight information, and (2) as an integrated operational system for forecasting congestion and monitoring (controlling) flow throughout the U.S. In the latter case, access to a supercomputer is required due to the model's enormous size.

Mulvey, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Tank Pressure Control Experiment (TPCE)

The Tank Pressure Control Experiment (TPCE) is a small self-contained STS payload designed to test a jet mixer for cryogenic fluid pressure control. Viewgraphs are presented that describe project organization, experiment objectives and approach, risk management, payload concept and mission plan, and initial test data.

Bentz, Mike↗

NASA NTRS1995

The background and theory of integrated risk management

While all good managers have always considered risk in their decision making, only recently have formal programs to do so been introduced. This report covers the logical structure behind the formulation of an integrated risk management plan (IRM). Included in the report are factors forcing the development of a formal plan to consider risk, the basic objective or purpose of an IRM, and desirable traits of such a plan. The report moves on to a discussion of background issues, seeks to formalize some definitions, and then discusses required information on threats. The report concludes with the steps for an IRM.

Hunsucker, John L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Bayesian Analysis for Risk Assessment of Selected Medical Events in Support of the Integrated Medical Model Effort

The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.

Gilkey, Kelly M.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Determine ISS Soyuz Orbital Module Ballistic Limits for Steel Projectiles Hypervelocity Impact Testing

A new orbital debris environment model (ORDEM 3.0) defines the density distribution of the debris environment in terms of the fraction of debris that are low-density (plastic), medium-density (aluminum) or high-density (steel) particles. This hypervelocity impact (HVI) program focused on assessing ballistic limits (BLs) for steel projectiles impacting the enhanced Soyuz Orbital Module (OM) micrometeoroid and orbital debris (MMOD) shield configuration. The ballistic limit was defined as the projectile size on the threshold of failure of the OM pressure shell as a function of impact speeds and angle. The enhanced OM shield configuration was first introduced with Soyuz 30S (launched in May 2012) to improve the MMOD protection of Soyuz vehicles docked to the International Space Station (ISS). This test program provides HVI data on U.S. materials similar in composition and density to the Russian materials for the enhanced Soyuz OM shield configuration of the vehicle. Data from this test program was used to update ballistic limit equations used in Soyuz OM penetration risk assessments. The objective of this hypervelocity impact test program was to determine the ballistic limit particle size for 440C stainless steel spherical projectiles on the Soyuz OM shielding at several impact conditions (velocity and angle combinations). This test report was prepared by NASA-JSC/ HVIT, upon completion of tests.

Lyons, Frankel↗

NASA NTRS2016

Re-Entry Point Targeting for LEO Spacecraft using Aerodynamic Drag

Most Low Earth Orbit (LEO) spacecraft do not have thrusters and re-enter atmosphere in random locations at uncertain times. Objects pose a risk to persons, property, or other satellites. Has become a larger concern with the recent increase in small satellites. Working on a NASA funded project to design a retractable drag device to expedite de-orbit and target a re-entry location through modulation of the drag area. Will be discussing the re-entry point targeting algorithm here.

algorithm↗

NASA NTRS1993

Mission Operations and Command Assurance: Flight Operations Quality Improvements

Flight mission operations systems place human operators in demanding, high risk environments. The objective of Mission Operations and Command Assurance (MO&CA) is to help improve the operational reliability of flight projects by reducing error -- Pareto Analysis shows that the human is the largest error category. MO&CA is a system level task reporting to project flight management and JPL Systems Assurance Division. MO&CA provides direct transfer of knowledge, continuous process improvement, and communication facilitation.

mission↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis of Spacecraft Materials Discrimination Using Color Indices for Remote Sensing for Space Situational Awareness

The increasing number of space missions have resulted in an augmented density of artificial objects positioned in orbital domains near Earth. Knowing the material composition of the resident space object can be of value in object identification and risk assessment using remote sensing techniques. To perform this task, it is increasingly imperative to optically characterize spacecraft materials to identify unique material-specific spectroscopic markers. In this work, a variety of materials frequently utilized by the aerospace industry in spacecraft design and construction were analyzed using reflectance spectroscopy. The collected data provide a spectral characterization baseline for modern-day and historical spacecraft materials. The color index was computed for standard astronomical and suggested theoretical filter passbands and compared to each other in their capability to discriminate materials belonging to different classes. The color index was calculated from reflectance spectra of common spacecraft materials in their pristine, as-received conditions that fell under different family groupings. Different color-index combinations were studied using color-color diagrams. Visual and quantitative analysis of the color-color diagrams were used to evaluate the possibility of discriminating materials from one another by means of optical measurements. Results of the analysis show that polyimide and photovoltaic materials are most easy to discriminate from all other materials via color indices using different filter passbands evaluated in this study.

spectral reflectance↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Robotic and Crewed Mars Missions Increasing the Demand for Planetary Protection Technology Needs

Planetary protection (PP) policy seeks to avoid harmful contamination by limiting biological and relevant organic contamination from spacecraft as well as preventing adverse changes to Earth’s biosphere when extraterrestrial samples are brought back to Earth. The PP policy at NASA was updated in 2021 (NPR 8715.24) and 2022 (NASA-STD-8719.27) to enable missions by expanding the decades old prescriptive requirements to allow for an option of adopting performance-based requirements that are objectives-driven, risk-informed and case-assured. In parallel, the final PP knowledge gap workshop was completed representing the international consensus on the key areas to be considered in developing crew PP policy. These knowledge gaps focused on key technology development areas in 1) microbial and human health monitoring, 2) technical and operations needed for contamination control and 3) natural transport of contamination on Mars. As robotic missions start to implement performance-based approaches and research and technology efforts commence to inform crew policy the demand for data quality driven verification and validation in relevant space environments. Examples of the types of testing that is envisioned includes test as you fly validation and verification of decontamination systems in a relevant on-orbit and Mars environment, developing lethality curves of terrestrial organisms to further our understanding of the biocidal impacts of Mars and the space environment, and particle transport model validation and verification. Thus, the PP discipline has identified the need for ground-based space environments to perform preliminary testing as validation and verification of flight systems and to advance the technology readiness level prior to further testing on-orbit or lunar environments to prepare for Mars.

J Nick Benardini↗