Aero-Propulsive Modeling for eVTOL Aircraft Using Wind Tunnel Testing with Multisine Inputs
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system identification↗
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Results for “response surface methodology”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Efficient Variable-Pitch Propeller Aerodynamic Model Development for Vectored-Thrust eVTOL Aircraft
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aerodynamic modeling↗
Evaluation of Response Surface Experiment Designs for Distributed Propulsion Aircraft Aero-Propulsive Modeling
Modern distributed hybrid and electric propulsion aircraft, including vertical, short, and conventional takeoff and landing configurations, exhibit significant aero-propulsive complexity and a large number of interacting test factors. This paper presents the development and evaluation of experiment designs for aero-propulsive characterization of distributed propulsion aircraft. Five different foundational response surface designs are evaluated to inform the development of two sequential design approaches tailored to complex aircraft aerodynamic characterization experiments. The first approach, which builds on sequential face-centered central composite designs, has been used previously to develop aero-propulsive models for complex aircraft using wind tunnel testing. The second approach is a new design strategy leveraging a regular I-optimal and nested I-optimal design that was developed for this study. The two sequential design strategies are compared for experiments with a large number of test factors using pre-experiment design evaluation metrics, as well as modeling results obtained from simulated wind tunnel data for the NASA LA-8 aircraft. The design evaluation metrics show that the sequential I-optimal base design has higher statistical power, lower correlation among candidate regressors, lower prediction variance, and more precise parameter estimates. The simulated wind tunnel experiments conducted using each design reveal that the sequential I-optimal base design has better predictive capability with fewer test points. The experiment design and evaluation procedures are described in detail to inform future aerodynamic characterization experiments for complex aircraft.
design of experiments↗
Evaluation of Response Surface Experiment Designs for Distributed Propulsion Aircraft Aero-Propulsive Modeling
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response surface methodology↗
Aero-Propulsive Modeling for eVTOL Aircraft Using Experimental Data
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system identification↗
Statistical Wind-Tunnel Experimentation Advancements for eVTOL Aircraft Aero-Propulsive Model Development
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design of experiments↗
Improvements to a Response Surface Thermal Model for Orion Mated to the International Space Station
This study is an extension of previous work to evaluate the applicability of Design of Experiments (DOE)/Response Surface Methodology to on-orbit thermal analysis. The goal was to determine if the methodology could produce a Response Surface Equation (RSE) that predicted the thermal model temperature results within +/-10 F. An RSE is a polynomial expression that can then be used to predict temperatures for a defined range of factor combinations. Based on suggestions received from the previous work, this study used a model with simpler geometry, considered polynomials up to fifth order, and evaluated orbital temperature variations to establish a minimum and maximum temperature for each component. A simplified Outer Mold Line (OML) thermal model of the Orion spacecraft was used in this study. The factors chosen were the vehicle's Yaw, Pitch, and Roll (defining the on-orbit attitude), the Beta angle (restricted to positive beta angles from 0 to 75), and the environmental constants (varying from cold to hot). All factors were normalized from their native ranges to a non-dimensional range from -1.0 to 1.0. Twenty-three components from the OML were chosen and the minimum and maximum orbital temperatures were calculated for each to produce forty-six responses for the DOE model. A customized DOE case matrix of 145 analysis cases was developed which used analysis points at the factor corners, mid-points, and center. From this data set, RSE s were developed which consisted of cubic, quartic, and fifth order polynomials. The results presented are for the fifth order RSE. The RSE results were then evaluated for agreement with the analytical model predictions to produce a +/-3(sigma) error band. Forty of the 46 responses had a +/-3(sigma) value of 10 F or less. Encouraged by this initial success, two additional sets of verification cases were selected. One contained 20 cases, the other 50 cases. These cases were evaluated both with the fifth order RSE and with the analytical model. For the maximum temperature predictions, 12 of the 23 components had all predictions within +/-10 F and 17 were within +/-20 F. For the minimum temperature predictions, only 4 of the 23 components (the four radiator temperatures), were within the 10 F goal. The maximum temperature RSEs were then run through 59,049 screening cases. The RSE predictions were then filtered to find 55 cases that produced the hottest temperatures. These 55 cases were then analyzed using the thermal model and the results compared against the RSE predictions. As noted earlier, 12 of the 23 responses were within +/-10 F at 17 within +/-20 F. These results demonstrate that if properly formulated, an RSE can provide a reliable, fast temperature prediction. Despite this progress, additional work is needed to determine why the minimum temperatures responses and 6 of the hot temperature responses did not produce reliable RSEs. Recommend focus areas are the model itself (arithmetic vs. diffusion nodes) and seeking consultations with statistical application experts.
Miller, StephenW.↗
Response Surface Methods for Spatially-Resolved Optical Measurement Techniques
Response surface methods (or methodology), RSM, have been applied to improve data quality for two vastly different spatial ly-re solved optical measurement techniques. In the first application, modern design of experiments (MDOE) methods, including RSM, are employed to map the temperature field in a direct-connect supersonic combustion test facility at NASA Langley Research Center. The laser-based measurement technique known as coherent anti-Stokes Raman spectroscopy (CARS) is used to measure temperature at various locations in the combustor. RSM is then used to develop temperature maps of the flow. Even though the temperature fluctuations at a single point in the flowfield have a standard deviation on the order of 300 K, RSM provides analytic fits to the data having 95% confidence interval half width uncertainties in the fit as low as +/-30 K. Methods of optimizing future CARS experiments are explored. The second application of RSM is to quantify the shape of a 5-meter diameter, ultra-light, inflatable space antenna at NASA Langley Research Center.
Danehy, P. M.↗
Response Surface Methods For Spatially-Resolved Optical Measurement Techniques
Response surface methods (or methodology), RSM, have been applied to improve data quality for two vastly different spatially-resolved optical measurement techniques. In the first application, modern design of experiments (MDOE) methods, including RSM, are employed to map the temperature field in a direct-connect supersonic combustion test facility at NASA Langley Research Center. The laser-based measurement technique known as coherent anti-Stokes Raman spectroscopy (CARS) is used to measure temperature at various locations in the combustor. RSM is then used to develop temperature maps of the flow. Even though the temperature fluctuations at a single point in the flowfield have a standard deviation on the order of 300 K, RSM provides analytic fits to the data having 95% confidence interval half width uncertainties in the fit as low as +/- 30 K. Methods of optimizing future CARS experiments are explored. The second application of RSM is to quantify the shape of a 5-meter diameter, ultra-lightweight, inflatable space antenna at NASA Langley Research Center. Photogrammetry is used to simultaneously measure the shape of the antenna at approximately 500 discrete spatial locations. RSM allows an analytic model to be developed that describes the shape of the majority of the antenna with an uncertainty of 0.4 mm, with 95% confidence. This model would allow a quantitative comparison between the actual shape of the antenna and the original design shape. Accurately determining this shape also allows confident interpolation between the measured points. Such a model could, for example, be used for ray tracing of radio-frequency waves up to 95 GHz. to predict the performance of the antenna.
Danehy, P. M.↗
Improvements to a Response Surface Thermal Model for Orion
A study was performed to determine if a Design of Experiments (DOE)/Response Surface Methodology could be applied to on-orbit thermal analysis and produce a set of Response Surface Equations (RSE) that predict Orion vehicle temperatures within 10 F. The study used the Orion Outer Mold Line model. Five separate factors were identified for study: yaw, pitch, roll, beta angle, and the environmental parameters. Twenty-three external Orion components were selected and their minimum and maximum temperatures captured over a period of two orbits. Thus, there are 46 responses. A DOE case matrix of 145 runs was developed. The data from these cases were analyzed to produce a fifth order RSE for each of the temperature responses. For the 145 cases in the DOE matrix, the agreement between the engineering data and the RSE predictions was encouraging with 40 of the 46 RSEs predicting temperatures within the goal band. However, the verification cases showed most responses did not meet the 10 F goal. After reframing the focus of the study to better align the RSE development with the purposes of the model, a set of RSEs for both the minimum and maximum radiator temperatures was produced which predicted the engineering model output within +/-4 F. Therefore, with the correct application of the DOE/RSE methodology, RSEs can be developed that provide analysts a fast and easy way to screen large numbers of environments and assess proposed changes to the RSE factors.
Miller, Stephen W.↗
Probabilistic Thermal Analysis During Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter Aerobraking
A method for performing a probabilistic thermal analysis during aerobraking has been developed. The analysis is performed on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter solar array during aerobraking. The methodology makes use of a response surface model derived from a more complex finite element thermal model of the solar array. The response surface is a quadratic equation which calculates the peak temperature for a given orbit drag pass at a specific location on the solar panel. Five different response surface equations are used, one of which predicts the overall maximum solar panel temperature, and the remaining four predict the temperatures of the solar panel thermal sensors. The variables used to define the response surface can be characterized as either environmental, material property, or modeling variables. Response surface variables are statistically varied in a Monte Carlo simulation. The Monte Carlo simulation produces mean temperatures and 3 sigma bounds as well as the probability of exceeding the designated flight allowable temperature for a given orbit. Response surface temperature predictions are compared with the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter flight temperature data.
Dec, John A.↗
Development of a Response Surface Thermal Model for Orion Mated to the International Space Station
A study was performed to determine if a Design of Experiments (DOE)/Response Surface Methodology could be applied to on-orbit thermal analysis and produce a set of Response Surface Equations (RSE) that accurately predict vehicle temperatures. The study used an integrated thermal model of the International Space Station and the Orion Outer mold line model. Five separate factors were identified for study: yaw, pitch, roll, beta angle, and the environmental parameters. Twenty external Orion temperatures were selected as the responses. A DOE case matrix of 110 runs was developed. The data from these cases were analyzed to produce an RSE for each of the temperature responses. The initial agreement between the engineering data and the RSE predictions was encouraging, although many RSEs had large uncertainties on their predictions. Fourteen verification cases were developed to test the predictive powers of the RSEs. The verification showed mixed results with some RSE predicting temperatures matching the engineering data within the uncertainty bands, while others had very large errors. While this study to not irrefutably prove that the DOE/RSM approach can be applied to on-orbit thermal analysis, it does demonstrate that technique has the potential to predict temperatures. Additional work is needed to better identify the cases needed to produce the RSEs
Miller, Stephen W.↗
A Global Optimization Methodology for Rocket Propulsion Applications
While the response surface method is an effective method in engineering optimization, its accuracy is often affected by the use of limited amount of data points for model construction. In this chapter, the issues related to the accuracy of the RS approximations and possible ways of improving the RS model using appropriate treatments, including the iteratively re-weighted least square (IRLS) technique and the radial-basis neural networks, are investigated. A main interest is to identify ways to offer added capabilities for the RS method to be able to at least selectively improve the accuracy in regions of importance. An example is to target the high efficiency region of a fluid machinery design space so that the predictive power of the RS can be maximized when it matters most. Analytical models based on polynomials, with controlled level of noise, are used to assess the performance of these techniques.
Source record↗
Comparison of Prediction Modeling Methodologies for Aeroacoustic Characterization of Hovering sUAS Rotors
This work compared artificial neural network and multivariate orthogonal function modeling methodologies for the prediction and characterization of isolated hovering sUAS rotor aerodynamics and aeroacoustics. Design of Experiments was used to create input feature spaces over 9 input features: the number of rotor blades, rotor size, rotor speed, the amount of blade twist, blade taper ratio, tip chord length, collective pitch, airfoil camber, and airfoil thickness. CAMRAD~II and AARON were executed at the points defined by the input feature space to predict aerodynamic and aeroacoustic quantities. These predicted aerodynamic and aeroacoustic data were then used to generate artificial neural networks and polynomial response surface models. The two prediction model methodologies were evaluated over test data previously unseen by the models, which showed good prediction capabilities for both model types, with slightly lower prediction error for the artificial neural networks. A characterization study was performed, which showed that input features correspondent to the spanwise sectional blade lift and drag were the most significant factors to the aerodynamic thrust and power, respectively. It was also shown that the aeroacoustic quantities were highly dependent on variations in rotor speed and size, which affect the Doppler factor for tonal noise and the spanwise Reynolds number for broadband noise.
Christopher S Thurman↗
Applications of Response Surface-Based Methods to Noise Analysis in the Conceptual Design of Revolutionary Aircraft
Due to the growing problem of noise in today's air transportation system, there have arisen needs to incorporate noise considerations in the conceptual design of revolutionary aircraft. Through the use of response surfaces, complex noise models may be converted into polynomial equations for rapid and simplified evaluation. This conversion allows many of the commonly used response surface-based trade space exploration methods to be applied to noise analysis. This methodology is demonstrated using a noise model of a notional 300 passenger Blended-Wing-Body (BWB) transport. Response surfaces are created relating source noise levels of the BWB vehicle to its corresponding FAR-36 certification noise levels and the resulting trade space is explored. Methods demonstrated include: single point analysis, parametric study, an optimization technique for inverse analysis, sensitivity studies, and probabilistic analysis. Extended applications of response surface-based methods in noise analysis are also discussed.
Hill, Geoffrey A.↗
Reliability of Radioisotope Stirling Convertor Linear Alternator
Onboard radioisotope power systems being developed and planned for NASA s deep-space missions would require reliable design lifetimes of up to 14 years. Critical components and materials of Stirling convertors have been undergoing extensive testing and evaluation in support of a reliable performance for the specified life span. Of significant importance to the successful development of the Stirling convertor is the design of a lightweight and highly efficient linear alternator. Alternator performance could vary due to small deviations in the permanent magnet properties, operating temperature, and component geometries. Durability prediction and reliability of the alternator may be affected by these deviations from nominal design conditions. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the effect of these uncertainties in predicting the reliability of the linear alternator performance. This paper presents a study in which a reliability-based methodology is used to assess alternator performance. The response surface characterizing the induced open-circuit voltage performance is constructed using 3-D finite element magnetic analysis. Fast probability integration method is used to determine the probability of the desired performance and its sensitivity to the alternator design parameters.
Shah, Ashwin↗
Common Cause Failure Modeling
Common Cause Failures (CCFs) are a known and documented phenomenon that defeats system redundancy. CCFS are a set of dependent type of failures that can be caused by: system environments; manufacturing; transportation; storage; maintenance; and assembly, as examples. Since there are many factors that contribute to CCFs, the effects can be reduced, but they are difficult to eliminate entirely. Furthermore, failure databases sometimes fail to differentiate between independent and CCF (dependent) failure and data is limited, especially for launch vehicles. The Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of NASA's Safety and Mission Assurance Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center (MFSC) is using generic data from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's database of common cause failures at nuclear power plants to estimate CCF due to the lack of a more appropriate data source. There remains uncertainty in the actual magnitude of the common cause risk estimates for different systems at this stage of the design. Given the limited data about launch vehicle CCF and that launch vehicles are a highly redundant system by design, it is important to make design decisions to account for a range of values for independent and CCFs. When investigating the design of the one-out-of-two component redundant system for launch vehicles, a response surface was constructed to represent the impact of the independent failure rate versus a common cause beta factor effect on a system's failure probability. This presentation will define a CCF and review estimation calculations. It gives a summary of reduction methodologies and a review of examples of historical CCFs. Finally, it presents the response surface and discusses the results of the different CCFs on the reliability of a one-out-of-two system.
Hark, Frank↗
Common Cause Failure Modeling
Common Cause Failures (CCFs) are a known and documented phenomenon that defeats system redundancy. CCFS are a set of dependent type of failures that can be caused by: system environments; manufacturing; transportation; storage; maintenance; and assembly, as examples. Since there are many factors that contribute to CCFs, the effects can be reduced, but they are difficult to eliminate entirely. Furthermore, failure databases sometimes fail to differentiate between independent and CCF (dependent) failure and data is limited, especially for launch vehicles. The Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of NASA's Safety and Mission Assurance Directorate at Marshal Space Flight Center (MFSC) is using generic data from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's database of common cause failures at nuclear power plants to estimate CCF due to the lack of a more appropriate data source. There remains uncertainty in the actual magnitude of the common cause risk estimates for different systems at this stage of the design. Given the limited data about launch vehicle CCF and that launch vehicles are a highly redundant system by design, it is important to make design decisions to account for a range of values for independent and CCFs. When investigating the design of the one-out-of-two component redundant system for launch vehicles, a response surface was constructed to represent the impact of the independent failure rate versus a common cause beta factor effect on a system's failure probability. This presentation will define a CCF and review estimation calculations. It gives a summary of reduction methodologies and a review of examples of historical CCFs. Finally, it presents the response surface and discusses the results of the different CCFs on the reliability of a one-out-of-two system.
Hark, Frank↗