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DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Wildfires on Solar Resource Availability in California in a Changing Climate

Wildfires can emit large amounts of atmospheric particulate matters and influence not only air quality but also availability of photovoltaic (PV) generation due to scattering and absorption of solar radiation. Under anthropogenic changing climate, wildfire activity is projected to increase over western North America due to drier and warmer climate, implying increasing impact on solar resource and larger uncertainty in solar generation especially in regions with faster PV penetration. This study focuses on quantifying the impact of wildfires on aerosol optical depth (AOD) and thus solar resource over California using National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This assessment includes historical analysis and estimation of solar resource under wildfire scenarios (2020 wildfire and an enhanced wildfire scenario based on 2020 wildfires). Historical analysis for the period of July-October 2019/2020 (low/high fire activity period) shows that the averaged global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) are reduced by about 30 and 90 W m-2 (5.6 and 15.3%), respectively, during high fire activity period. To create AOD dataset for enhanced fire scenario, 165% increase in burn area (in around 2050) is selected based on comprehensive literature review, which is further applied to the Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN) fire emission. WRF-Chem model with the enhanced FINN emissions is used to simulate and represent a preserving spatial distribution of burned areas and wildfire-emitted aerosols. Our initial analysis suggests that the"enhanced 2020 wildfire" AOD can increase by a factor of 1.3 - 2, which can significantly reduce solar irradiance and increase uncertainty in generation and reliability of power system in extreme wildfire events under a high solar penetration scenario. Overall, this study provides an estimate of the impacts of wildfires on solar resource to make informed decisions on reserve planning, generation scheduling, and reliability investments.

aerosol optical depth↗

DOE OSTI2022

Consensus-Based Approach for Active Power Control and Reserve Estimation in Distributed PV Systems

With the increased adoption of distributed energy resources (DER), they are expected to contribute to power system reliability services and enhance power system stability. This paper presents a distributed consensus control approach for the real-time active power reserve estimation and power management in distributed PV (photovoltaic) systems. The proposed method estimates the cumulative active power reserve from numerous PV generators using only the sparse communication network for a DER aggregator to provide active power regulation services. The real-time active power reserve estimation using the proposed approach can be used by DER aggregators to manage curtailment in distributed PV systems to maintain stipulated reserves and further to provide power system frequency regulation. Using the proposed approach, the DER aggregator only requires measurements at the feeder substation and it does not require information from individual DER units, thereby improving system resiliency. The proposed distributed consensus control method is validated on IEEE 123 testbed using PSCAD simulations.

active power reserve↗

DOE OSTI2024

Solar and Wind Forecast Error Reserve Sharing in a Multi-Utility Region

As electricity systems transition to higher levels of solar and wind generation, electric system operators will likely need to hold additional reserves to manage the forecast error associated with these resources. Because wind and solar forecast errors tend to be poorly correlated across space, system operators can reduce their reserve requirements by sharing reserves. This paper examines the value of forecast error reserve sharing among balancing areas in the Southeast United States. It finds that forecast error reserve requirements increase linearly with growth in solar and wind generation capacity but that reserve sharing can significantly reduce physical (MW) reserve requirements (from 25%-26% to 18%-19% of average load in high solar scenarios). It finds that the value of forecast error reserve sharing declines with higher levels of solar and wind generation, due to lower wholesale energy and reserve prices. Even with declines in wholesale prices, forecast error reserve sharing can still provide substantial value (as much as $\$$400 million per year in a high solar scenario), though with higher levels of solar, wind, and electricity storage, this value is increasingly tied to avoiding scarcity prices. The results suggest the importance of coordinated capacity expansion planning for forecast error reserve sharing.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Consensus-Based Approach for Active Power Control and Reserve Estimation in Distributed PV Systems: Preprint

active power reserve↗

NASA NTRS1973

Timber resources information system

The author has identified the following significant results. The investigators are convinced that high altitude photography when supported with ground measurements and existing surveys, contains all the resource data needed for overall land management planning. This overall planning would include land use classification, environmental impact statements, etc. First inspection of the ERTS-1 RBV imagery on the Quinault Reservation shows that much of the cultural and resource detail can be identified. Of particular note, is the obvious contrast between recently harvested timber cutting blocks as opposed to those cut more than a year ago. The RBV color composite would have been of better definition if band 3 had been excluded. Land managers are disappointed at first viewing ERTS-1 imagery in that it is not stereoscopic and find the scale and resolution at the 9 x 9 format difficult to interpret or translate to their ground truth. Arrangements are being made to have 1:250,000 enlargement prints made for their use.

Woll, A. M.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Timber resource information system

The author has identified the following significant results. The investigators are convinced that high altitude photography when supported with ground measurements and existing surveys, contain all the resource data needed for overall land management planning. This overall planning would include land use classification, environmental impact statements, and similar documentation. First inspection of the RBV ERTS imagery on the Quinault Reservation shows that much of the cultural and resources detail can be identified. Of particular note, is the obvious contrast between recently harvested timber cutting blocks as opposed to those cut more than a year ago. The RBV color composite would have been of better definition if Band 3 had been excluded.

Woll, A. M.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Enhancing Science Teacher Training Using Water Resources and GLOBE

Heritage College, located on the Yakama Indian Reservation in south central Washington state, serves a multicultural, underserved, rural population and trains teachers to staff the disadvantaged school districts on and surrounding the reservation. In-service teachers and pre-service teachers in the area show strength in biology but have weak backgrounds in chemistry and mathematics. We are addressing this problem by providing a 2-year core of courses for 3 groups of 25 students (15 pre-service and 10 in-service teachers) using GLOBE to teach integrated physical science and mathematics. At the conclusion of the program, the students will qualify for science certification by Washington State. Water resources are the focal point of the curriculum because it is central to life in our desert area. The lack or excess of water, its uses, quality and distribution is being studied by using GIS, remote sensing and historical records. Students are learning the methodology to incorporate scientific protocols and data into all aspects of their future teaching curriculum. In addition, in each of the three years of the project, pre-service teachers attended a seminar series during the fall semester with presentations by collaborators from industry, agriculture, education and government agencies. Students used NASA educational materials in the presentations that they gave at the conclusion of the seminar series. All pre- and in-service teachers continue to have support via a local web site for Heritage College GLOBE participants.

Falco, James W.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Overview of the Lunar Water ISRU Measurement Study (LWIMS)

NASA announced plans for the Artemis program, which would send crewed missions to the Moon by 2024 and achieve a sustainable lunar presence by 2028 [1]. To carry out sustained crewed surface operations, In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU), which would use lunar resources to produce mission consumables, will be critical. Water-bearing materials have been identified at both lunar poles and are often associated with Permanently Shadowed Regions (PSRs). These constitute a geological resource that may or may not be convertible to reserves with additional exploration. This water could provide both fuel and oxygen for refueling vehicles as well as life support consumables. However, the nature and extent of this resource is not well understood. Detection of water alone is not adequate for ISRU planning. For this reason, NASA chartered the Lunar Water ISRU Measurement Study (LWIMS). The goal of this study was to assess and define the type, amount, and fidelity of the measurements needed to select mining locations for lunar water ISRU and to define resource-related requirements for ISRU hardware development and architectures (mining operations, hardware emplacement, concept of operations).

Julie Kleinhenz↗

DOE OSTI2024

Improved Decarbonization Planning through Climate Resiliency Modeling

California has set ambitious decarbonization goals concerning both emissions and the portion of energy generated by renewable resources. However, climate change poses considerable uncertainties. Variation in load is driven both by the level of electrification as well as the impact of climate change on weather. Further, climate change stands to make weather more variable, impacting not just load but generation from renewable resources. In this paper, we approach the issue of the impacts of climate change on decarbonization planning from two perspectives. First, we look at the range of decarbonization pathways through 8 pathways that account for differences in socioeconomic development, global emissions, and warming. Second, we develop a more robust way of ensuring the reliability of energy resources planning than the commonly used planning reserve margin. We show that the proposed method can save between 6 and 14 billion dollars in investment and maintenance costs and outline critical policy implications concerning the reliance of power plants for satisfying planning reliability requirements, including the potential retirement of dozens of peaker power plants.

Anderson, Osten P.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Effects of Carbonate Minerals on Shale-Hydraulic Fracturing Fluid Interactions in the Marcellus Shale

Natural gas extracted from tight shale formations, such as the Marcellus Shale, represents a significant and developing front in energy exploration. By fracturing these formations using pressurized fracturing fluid, previously unobtainable hydrocarbon reserves may be tapped. While pursuing this resource, hydraulic fracturing operations leave chemically complex fluids in the shale formation for at least two weeks. This provides a substantial opportunity for the hydraulic fracturing fluid (HFF) to react with the shale formation at reservoir temperature and pressure. In this study, we investigated the effects of the carbonates on shale-HFF reactions with a focus on the Marcellus Shale. We performed autoclave experiments at high temperature and pressure reservoir conditions using a carbonate-rich and a decarbonated or carbonate-free version of the same shale sample. We observed that carbonate minerals buffer the pH of the solution, which in turn prevents clay dissolution. Carbonate and bicarbonate ions also scavenge reactive oxidizing species (ROS), which prevents oxidation of shale organic matter and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Carbonate-free samples also show higher pyrite dissolution compared to the carbonate-rich sample due to chelation reactions. This study demonstrates how carbonate minerals (keeping all other variables constant) affect shale-HFF reactions that can potentially impact porosity, microfracture integrity, and the release of heavy metals and volatile organic contaminants in the produced water.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1974

Resource analysis applications in Michigan

During the past two years, available NASA imagery has been applied to a broad spectrum of problems of concern to Michigan-based agencies. These demonstrations include the testing of remote sensing for the purposes of (1) highway corridor planning and impact assessments, (2) game management-area information bases, (3) multi-agency river basin planning, (4) timber resource management information systems, (5) agricultural land reservation policies, and (6) shoreline flooding damage assessment. In addition, cost accounting procedures have been developed for evaluating the relative costs of utilizing remote sensing in land cover and land use analysis data collection procedures.

Schar, S. W.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Climate Scenarios for the NASA / USAID SERVIR Project: Challenges for Multiple Planning Horizons

SERVIR, an acronym meaning "to serve" in Spanish, is a joint venture between NASA and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) which provides satellite-based Earth observation data, modeling, and science applications to help developing nations in Central America, East Africa and the Himalayas improve environmental decision making. Anticipating climate variability / climate change impacts has now become an important component of the SERVIR efforts to build capacity in these regions. Uncertainty in hydrometeorological components of climate variations and exposure to extreme events across scales from weather to climate are of particular concern. We report here on work to construct scenarios or outlooks that are being developed as input drivers for decision support systems (DSSs) in a variety of settings. These DSSs are being developed jointly by a broad array NASA Applied Science Team (AST) Investigations and user communities in the three SERVIR Hub Regions, Central America, East Africa and the Himalayas. Issues span hydrologic / water resources modeling, agricultural productivity, and forest carbon reserves. The scenarios needed for these efforts encompass seasonal forecasts, interannual outlooks, and likely decadal / multi-decadal trends. Providing these scenarios across the different AST efforts enables some level of integration in considering regional responses to climate events. We will discuss a number of challenges in developing this continuum of scenarios including the identification and "mining" of predictability, addressing multiple continental regions, issues of downscaling global model integrations to regional / local applications (i.e. hydrologic and crop modeling). We compare / contrast the role of the U.S. National Multi- Model Experiment initiative in seasonal forecasts and the CMIP-5 climate model experiments in supporting these efforts. Examples of these scenarios, their use, and an assessment of their utility as well as limitations will be presented.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Solar Curtailment Paradox

This presentation summarizes work recently published in a Joule article, "The Curtailment Paradox in the Transition to High Solar Power Systems." Rising penetrations of variable renewable energy (VRE) in power systems are expected to increase the curtailment of these resources because of oversupply and operational constraints. We evaluate the effect on curtailment from various flexibility approaches, including storage, thermal generator flexibility, operating reserve eligibility rules, transmission constraints, and temporal resolution, by using a highly resolved realistic system. Results reveal two aspects of a curtailment paradox as the system evolves to higher solar penetration levels. First, thermal generator parameters, especially in restricting minimum operating levels and ramp rates, affect VRE curtailment more in mid-PV penetration levels (~25%–40%) but much less at lower (~20%) or higher (~45%) PV penetration levels. Second, although allowing VRE and storage to provide operating reserve results in significant operating costs and curtailment benefits, the price suppression effect from these resources reduces incentives for PV to provide operating reserves with curtailed energy.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Frequency Control and Disturbance Containment Using Grid-Forming Embedded Storage Networks

The paper presents a distributed approach for operating a network of inverter-based energy storage resources embedded in a bulk power system. Departing from their traditional role of steady-state reserves, the storage assets in the network are utilized as frequency-responsive resources shaping system dynamics. The power electronics converter systems interfacing the storage resources are equipped with local controllers designed to respond under transient disturbances. To this end, a safety-constrained distributed control strategy is explored. The paper compares the performance of converter-interfaced grid-forming and grid-following storage networks for fast frequency control and disturbance containment/localization. Sensitivity studies are performed to study the impact of storage size, steady-state dispatch, and controller design on dynamic performance. The findings are presented through case studies with results from the IEEE test systems.

Chatterjee, Kaustav (ORCID:0000000153273860)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Market Implications of Alternative Operating Reserve Modeling in Wholesale Electricity Markets

Pricing and settlement mechanisms are crucial for efficient resource allocation, investment incentives, market competition, and regulatory oversight. In the United States, Regional Transmission Operators (RTOs) adopts a uniform pricing scheme that hinges on the marginal costs of supplying additional electricity. This study investigates the pricing and settlement impacts of alternative reserve constraint modeling, highlighting how even slight variations in the modeling of constraints can drastically alter market clearing prices, reserve quantities, and revenue outcomes. Focusing on the diverse market designs and assumptions in ancillary services by U.S. RTOs, particularly in relation to capacity sharing and reserve substitutions, the research examines four distinct models that combine these elements based on a large-scale synthetic power system test data. Our study provides a critical insight into the economic implications and the underlying factors of these alternative reserve constraints through market simulations and data analysis.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Performance Comparisons for Artificially Propagated and Wild Pacific Lamprey Juveniles and Larvae

ABSTRACT Artificially propagated Pacific lamprey ( Entosphenus tridentatus ) are produced for restoration and for use in dam passage studies to reduce the demand for wild fish. Such uses require that animals are representative of their wild counterparts. Previous work indicated that this is true for Pacific lamprey larvae and juveniles reared in the hatchery with respect to the length of sustained swimming. However, more subtle differences in behaviour and performance that lamprey need to survive have not been assessed. In this study, artificially propagated and wild fish were compared in laboratory tests under no‐flow conditions to examine light avoidance, burrowing speed, burst swim speed, volitional routine swim speed and time to come to rest. Most larvae burrowed in less than a minute, and we found highly significant differences ( p < 0.001) between artificially propagated and wild larvae burrowing times, a critical escape behaviour. This could have implications for studies of larval entrainment at irrigation diversion canals or in turbine boils at dams. Interestingly, all of the wild juveniles tested came to rest quickly after introduction to the chamber (1.5 min), while artificially propagated lamprey swam robotically near the surface and 48% did not come to rest in the first 10 min (median time to rest = 9.5 min). In contrast, wild juveniles quickly (median = 1.47 min) sought areas near the tank bottom and attached strongly with their oral disc. Such behavioural differences could have important survival consequences for artificially propagated lamprey as they approach turbine intakes, bypass screens and irrigation diversion headgates. This study highlights the need to conduct behavioural assays that examine subtleties of fish behaviour that can be missed with traditional swim tunnel comparisons.

Frick, Kinsey [Fish Ecology Division, Northwest Fi↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Charging Rendezvous and Motion Planning for a Multi-AGV Team Including a Mobile Charging Host

Teams of automated battery-powered electric vehicles have the potential to execute complex mission tasks in off-road environments for agriculture, military, and other applications. Limited onboard energy reserves hinder their adoption in large-scale resource-constrained environments, where recharging is a necessity. It may be infeasible to install a network of static charging stations in off-road environments. For this reason, dedicated mobile host vehicles with charging capabilities are proposed as a means to increase range and capabilities of the multivehicle team. Here, in this study, we consider an ad hoc planning framework, where results from a high-confidence trajectory planner are leveraged to plan charging rendezvous between a host and other worker vehicles in a receding horizon fashion to provide high confidence that energy reserves will not be prematurely exhausted. The core problem is posed so as to minimize the impact of recharging on the mission in terms of task delays, overall energy utilization, and costs of fast charging. Through extensive Monte Carlo simulations of an off-road mission, we show a decrease in task delays without substantial increases in energy needs by updating the charging rendezvous plan during the mission. However, if updates are made too often, model mismatch may cause unnecessary cycling and mission failure.

Energy constraints↗

NASA NTRS1981

Forest Resource Information System. Phase 3: System transfer report

Transfer of the forest reserve information system (FRIS) from the Laboratory for Applications of Remote Sensing to St. Regis Paper Company is described. Modifications required for the transfer of the LARYS image processing software are discussed. The reformatting, geometric correction, image registration, and documentation performed for preprocessing transfer are described. Data turnaround was improved and geometrically corrected and ground-registered CCT LANDSAT 3 data provided to the user. The technology transfer activities are summarized. An application test performed in order to assess a Florida land acquisition is described. A benefit/cost analysis of FRIS is presented.

Mroczynski, R. P.↗