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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Risk Considerations of Transitioning CO2-EOR Field to CO2 storage Field: Case Study

In the United States (U.S.), carbon dioxide (CO2) injection wells at EOR sites are currently regulated as Class II wells under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Underground Injection Control (UIC) program while dedicated geological CO2 storage (GCS) wells are considered Class VI wells. A CO2-EOR facility considering a transitioning from tertiary oil recovery to injecting CO2 for the primary purpose of long-term storage is required to obtain a Class VI permit where this transition poses an increased risk to underground sources of drinking water. This study considers how transitioning operations from CO2-EOR to storage can impact reservoir plume and pressure transient in the storage envelope, and how these changes could impact area of review and potential unwanted fluid migration. We developed a case study to assess subsurface response and leakage risks associated with a representative, hypothetical operation in a carbonate reservoir. This reservoir transitions from tertiary hydrocarbon recovery to dedicated GCS. Reservoir simulations were run for a set of credible CO2-EOR scenarios to estimate distributions of fluids phases and pressures throughout the model domain after CO2 flooding as well as forecasting the behavior of the reservoir after the transition to a dedicated storage phase. The evolutions from all simulated scenarios were used as the basis for leakage risk quantification using the National Risk Assessment Partnership’s Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) with a novel reduced-order model to estimate time-dependent leakage of CO2, brine, and hydrocarbon fluids through potentially leaky wells. Results include a description of reservoir response, an estimate of the areal extent that could potentially be impacted by leakage to underground sources of drinking water, and estimates of the magnitude of potential leakage. Considerations for dedicated storage injection well selection, injectivity, and injection scheme performance and potential leakage risk are presented, with implications for risk assessment of well transition discussed. This study presents a risk-based workflow for the Class II to Class VI well transition. Integrating credible numerical simulation of viable CO2-EOR to dedicated CO2 storage with quantitative risk assessment tools, such as the NRAP-Open-IAM, will provide a valuable means to devise operational scenarios and inform decision-making related to storage benefit, leakage risk, and liability. Presented at the SPE/AAPG/SEG Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage Conference in Houston, TX, March 11-13, 2024.

Liu, Guoxiang↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving Production in the Emerging Paradox Oil Play (Final Technical Report)

This report documents the results of the DOE-funded project Improving Production in the Emerging Paradox Oil Play, focused on integrating geological characterization, petrophysical analysis, reservoir simulation, and field development planning to improve hydrocarbon recovery from the Paradox Basin. Project activities included core and log analysis, assessment of reservoir heterogeneity and compartmentalization, evaluation of completion and stimulation strategies, and development of an uncertainty-aware field development framework. Findings highlight the importance of selective completions, geology-driven well placement, and targeted stimulation in vertically heterogeneous carbonate reservoirs.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Progress of Gas Injection EOR Surveillance in the Bakken Unconventional Play—Technical Review and Machine Learning Study

Although considerable laboratory and modeling activities were performed to investigate the enhanced oil recovery (EOR) mechanisms and potential in unconventional reservoirs, only limited research has been reported to investigate actual EOR implementations and their surveillance in fields. Eleven EOR pilot tests that used CO2, rich gas, surfactant, water, etc., have been conducted in the Bakken unconventional play since 2008. Gas injection was involved in eight of these pilots with huff ‘n’ puff, flooding, and injectivity operations. Surveillance data, including daily production/injection rates, bottomhole injection pressure, gas composition, well logs, and tracer testing, were collected from these tests to generate time-series plots or analytics that can inform operators of downhole conditions. A technical review showed that pressure buildup, conformance issues, and timely gas breakthrough detection were some of the main challenges because of the interconnected fractures between injection and offset wells. The latest operation of co-injecting gas, water, and surfactant through the same injection well showed that these challenges could be mitigated by careful EOR design and continuous reservoir monitoring. Reservoir simulation and machine learning were then conducted for operators to rapidly predict EOR performance and take control actions to improve EOR outcomes in unconventional reservoirs.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2025

CO2 Plume Imaging with Accelerated Deep Learning-based Data Assimilation Considering Multiple Realizations: Application to the Illinois Basin-Decatur Carbon Sequestration Project

We propose a fast and efficient deep learning workflow for near real-time data assimilation, forecasting and visualization of CO2 plume evolution in saline aquifer and demonstrate its application at a field site. Unlike the previous work, this study incorporates the impact of spatial heterogeneity using multiple realizations. In the proposed workflow, a neural network model utilizes available monitoring data such as downhole pressure measurements as input and predicts the propagating pressure ‘front’ using the diffusive time of flight (DTOF) map which is considered as representative reservoir image of the flow field. The DTOF is the arrival time of pressure front propagation, which can be computed by the Fast Marching Method rapidly without flow simulations. Reservoir model calibration can be implemented by selecting the training data samples that describe the predicted DTOF map based on observed data. The power and efficacy of our workflow is demonstrated by application to the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project.

CO2 plume imaging↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Study of Commercial-Scale CO2 Storage Options in Single and Stacked Saline Formations in Managing Reservoir Pressure Buildup

Presentation at American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) Carbon, Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) held in Houston, Texas, April 25–27, 2023. The presentation emphasizes the importance of coordination among CO2 storage projects as CCUS deployment needs to be scaled up. The presentation focuses on findings from reservoir simulation studies in which different configurations of injection zones (a single saline formation and a stacked sequence of saline formations) are targeted for CO2 storage to accommodate the amplified storage volume needed while managing reservoir pressure buildup and interference induced by multi-well injection operations.

Wijaya, Nur↗
DOE OSTI2020

User’s Manual for StrmtbFlow, the Stream Tube Multiphase Flow Part of the FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model, Version 2

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy (FE) at the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has developed the FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model, which is an updated version of the CO 2 Prophet. This document is a user’s manual for StrmtbFlow, which is one part of the FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model. CO 2 Prophet was originally developed in the 1990s by Texaco Exploration and Production Technology Department for DOE. The FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model is an oil reservoir simulator that is suitable for simulating water floods and supercritical carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) enhanced oil recovery (EOR). The FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model uses a number of assumptions to simplify the equations describing the flow of oil, water (or brine), and CO 2 in the oil reservoir.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

User’s Manual for StrmtbGen, the Stream Tube Generating Part of the FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model, Version 2

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy (FE) at the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has developed the FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model, which is Version 2 of CO 2 Prophet. This document is a User’s Manual for StrmtbGen, which is one part of the FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model. CO 2 Prophet was originally developed in the 1990s by Texaco Exploration and Production Technology Department for DOE. The FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model is an oil reservoir simulator that is suitable for simulating water floods and supercritical carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) enhanced oil recovery (EOR). The FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model uses a number of assumptions to simplify the equations describing the flow of oil, water (or brine), and CO 2 in the oil reservoir.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Conceptual and Mathematical Foundation for the FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model for Simulating CO 2 Enhanced Oil Recovery, Version 2

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy (FE) at the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) has developed the FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model, which is Version 2 of CO 2 Prophet. This document describes the mathematical foundation for the FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model. CO 2 Prophet was originally developed in the 1990s by Texaco Exploration and Production and Technology Department for DOE. The FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model is an oil reservoir simulator that is suitable for simulating water floods and supercritical carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) enhanced oil recovery (EOR). The FE/NETL CO 2 Prophet Model uses a number of assumptions to simplify the equations describing the flow of oil, water (or brine), and CO 2 in the oil reservoir.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A deep learning-accelerated data assimilation and forecasting workflow for commercial-scale geologic carbon storage

Fast assimilation of monitoring data to update forecasts of pressure buildup and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) plume migration under geologic uncertainties is a challenging problem in geologic carbon storage. The high computational cost of data assimilation with a high-dimensional parameter space impedes fast decision-making for commercial-scale reservoir management. We propose to leverage physical understandings of porous medium flow behavior with deep learning techniques to develop a fast data assimilation-reservoir response forecasting workflow. Applying an Ensemble Smoother Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) framework, the workflow updates geologic properties and predicts reservoir performance with quantified uncertainty from pressure history and CO 2 plumes interpreted through seismic inversion. As the most computationally expensive component in such a workflow is reservoir simulation, we developed surrogate models to predict dynamic pressure and CO 2 plume extents under multi-well injection. The surrogate models employ deep convolutional neural networks, specifically, a wide residual network and a residual U-Net. The workflow is validated against a flat threedimensional reservoir model representative of a clastic shelf depositional environment. Intelligent treatments are applied to bridge between quantities in a true-3D reservoir model and those in a single-layer reservoir model. The workflow can complete history matching and reservoir forecasting with uncertainty quantification in less than one hour on a mainstream personal workstation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Injection data analysis using material balance time for CO 2 storage capacity estimation in deep closed saline aquifers

Estimating the ultimate storage capacity of deep saline aquifers is important to address the formation potential to store the envisioned large volumes of CO 2 . Injection data (i.e. injection rate, bottomhole pressure, and cumulative injected volume of CO 2 ) are routinely recorded during storage operations. These data contain valuable information on the subsurface (e.g. the reservoir pore volume and the formation storage capacity) that can be extracted. In this paper, we present a two-step graphical technique to infer the pore volume and the ultimate storage capacity of closed saline aquifers by analyzing the available injection data. First, the pore volume is inferred through adapting the concept of the material balance time. Material balance time is an approximate superposition time function developed to interpret production data from oil and gas wells operating at variable pressure/rate conditions during the boundary-dominated flow period. Using material balance techniques, the ultimate storage capacity is then estimated through linear extrapolation of the average pressure trend to the maximum allowable pressure the formation can withstand. The average pressure is not available in practice, but is can be obtained from the injection data. Two approaches are presented in this study to calculate the average pressure; namely the rigorous and the approximate approaches. Unlike the rigorous approach, the approximate approach does not require a prior knowledge of some reservoir properties (e.g. relative permeability, absolute permeability, formation porosity and thickness) to calculate the average pressure. To investigate its potential and reliability in analyzing CO 2 injection data, the proposed technique is applied to four synthetic cases representing different well operating conditions. Results indicate that the approximate approach consistently overestimates the actual (simulated) storage capacity as compared to the rigorous approach. The agreement - between the inferred and the simulated reservoir pore volume, and between the analytical and numerical estimates of storage capacity - validates the potential application of the technique to CO 2 storage in closed saline aquifers. The technique is further substantiated through application to a field data set utilized from a commercial-scale geological storage (CGS) project. Finally, field data interpretation shows that the proposed technique can be utilized to identify the degree of hydraulic continuity and reservoir compartmentalization within a target formation by interpreting the corresponding pressure and rate responses.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2023

Techno-economic life cycle assessment of CO 2 -EOR operations towards net negative emissions at farnsworth field unit

Optimizations of CO 2 Water Alternating Gas(WAG)- systems with multi-objectives of incremental recovery and maximization of CO 2 storage are challenging. Here, the incorporation of a total Greenhouse gas (GHG) life cycle assessment is mostly ignored leading to inaccurate estimation of overall net carbon emissions of their operations. In this study, the effect of a total GHG life cycle assessment on a multi-objective CO 2 -WAG optimization with integrated techno-economic assessment (TEA) which factors carbon tax credit is conducted. A life cycle assessment (LCA) was conducted utilizing a 20 -year optimized post history matched data from a high fidelity reservoir simulation model. Using data generated from the optimum result, a techno-economic life cycle analysis was further conducted. The first scenario classified as the base model had an estimated 81% of purchased CO 2 sequestered. The results through a comprehensive techno-economic LCA model yielded a net estimate of 73% of purchased CO 2 . The optimized forecasted model which considered key operational and reservoir factors such as WAG ratio, injection rates and periods, and well specification resulted in an improved sequestration of 92% of purchased CO 2 . However, this also dropped to 84% after taking it through LCA. These results clearly indicate a significant amount of net CO 2 is not accounted for when operations are not analyzed through LCA. From the LCA, direct flaring volumes of CO 2 , energy consumption and efficiency of unit equipment were noticed to be the major causes of these reductions. Considering ten main sources of energy as source of energy generation, a comparative techno-eco LCA was conducted. The results confirmed a lower net volume and NPV for energy sources with higher carbon footprints and vice versa. Thus, a total LCA of CO 2 -WAG greatly influences net storage factor of purchased CO 2 and hence project NPV where tax credit/incentives per ton of CO 2 sequestered is considered. Although operational conditions are optimized for best results, there are significant factors that leads to minimization of net storage factor. This study therefore provides an insightful information for optimizing CO 2 -WAG multi-objectives to achieve minimum GHG emission.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2022

NRAP-Open-IAM: NRAP Open Source Integrated Assessment Model

Note: This is the last version (a2.6.1) of NRAP-Open-IAM released during NRAP Phase II in 2022. The latest version of NRAP-Open-IAM is available here: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/phase-iii-nrap-open-iam NRAP-Open-IAM is an open-source software product that enables quantification of containment effectiveness and leakage risk at storage sites in the context of system uncertainties and variability. NRAP-Open-IAM represents the next-generation in a line of systems-based computational models developed for quantitative geological carbon storage (GCS) risk assessment. The model comprises a set of reduced-order and analytical models of various components of the GCS system, potential leakage pathways, receptors of concern including impact to groundwater resources and the atmosphere, a framework to support stochastic simulation, time stepping, uncertainty quantification, other analytical functionality for scenario and risk-performance evaluation, and a basic graphical user interface to support scenario development, data input simulation definition, and basic post-processing and results display. As the NRAP Open-IAM functionality continues to evolve, we continue to add to its capability to develop quantitative, probabilistic, and time-dependent profiles of the evolution of risk at a GCS site and evaluate the influence of uncertain parameters on uncertainty in predicted risk. It can be used to quantify the dynamics of reservoir saturation plume and pressure-affected area, for evaluation of the area of potential groundwater impact (i.e., Area of Review) and monitoring requirements to support cost and regulatory analysis, and for consideration of different post-injection site care and closure scenarios. This submission contains the current version of NRAP-Open-IAM available for evaluation and testing. To use the NRAP-Open-IAM, download the source code (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/4c24a3da-3b40-4ffe-9892-c807ae9f8760) then open the NRAP-Open-IAM user's guide (https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/8b27335a-343c-4836-b8a3-3ad0bdc9e669) to read more about the tool. Installation instructions for Windows, Mac, and Linux can be found in the "installers" folder of the extracted NRAP-Open-IAM folder and describe setup of environment (e.g., Python libraries) needed for proper work of the tool. Test of installation can be done by running "python openiam_setup_tests.py" in the "setup" folder. The installation test also runs a test suite to see if the NRAP-Open-IAM has been installed correctly. To run the test suite separately, run "python iam_test.py" in the "test" folder. User's guide: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/8b27335a-343c-4836-b8a3-3ad0bdc9e669 Developer's guide: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/3bc6ee7d-609d-4eb6-80ba-fa6130ee0313 Reservoir simulation data used in some examples distributed with NRAP-Open-IAM: - Kimberlina: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/eb62cece-61b2-4037-9b6d-32407dde2ab8 - Kimberlina (compartmentalized): https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/08f396c8-bc5f-44ad-a028-6e98a6ea6d70/resource/366f9530-3b32-4b84-affe-ab2df1d9a8b5 - FutureGen 2.0: https://edx.netl.doe.gov/dataset/futuregen-2-0-1008-simulation-reservoir-lookup-table NRAP-Open-IAM GitLab repository: https://gitlab.com/NRAP/OpenIAM Related publications: - Bacon, D., Yonkofski, C., Brown, C., Demirkanli, D. and Whiting, J., 2019. Risk-based post injection site care and monitoring for commercial-scale carbon storage: Reevaluation of the FutureGen 2.0 site using NRAP-Open-IAM and DREAM. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 90: 102784. - Bacon, D. Demirkanli, D., and White, S., 2020. Probabilistic risk-based Area of Review (AoR) determination for a deep-saline carbon storage site. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 102: 103153. - Harp, D., Oldenburg, C., and Pawar, R., 2019. A metric for evaluating conformance robustness during geologic CO2 sequestration operations. International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control 85: 100-108. - Lackey, G., Vasylkivska, V., Huerta, N., King, S., and Dilmore, R., 2019. Managing well leakage risks at a geologic carbon storage site with many wells, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 88 :182-194. - Vasylkivska, V., Dilmore, R., Lackey, G., Zhang, Y., King, S., Bacon, D., Chen, B., Mansoor, K., and Harp, D., 2021. NRAP-Open-IAM: A flexible open-source integrated assessment model for geologic carbon storage risk assessment and management, Environmental Modelling & Software, 143: 105114. Presentations: - Chen, B., Harp, D., and Pawar, R., A data assimilation approach (ES-MDA) coupling with NRAP-Open-IAM for quantifying uncertainty reduction in geological CO2 sequestration. AGUFM 2019: T44A-02. - Chen, B., and Harp, D., Improving risk analysis precision for geologic CO2 sequestration by quantifying the uncertainty reduction before and after acquiring monitoring data. 14th Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies Conference, Melbourne, Australia, 2018, pp. 21-26. - Harp, D., National Risk Assessment Partnership Task 2: Containment Assurance. No. LA-UR-19-28654, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States), 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., King, S., Bacon, D., Harp, D., Chen, B., Mansoor, K., Onishi, T., Yang, Y., Zhang, Y., and Keating, E., NRAP-Open-IAM: An open-source integrated assessment model, poster, Mastering the Subsurface Through Technology Innovation, Partnerships and Collaboration: Carbon Storage and Oil and Natural Gas Technologies Review Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 13-16, 2018. - Vasylkivska, V., Lackey, G., King, S., Wentworth, A., Huerta, N., Creason, C., DiGiulio, J., Yang, Y., and Dilmore, R., Long-term risk analysis of a geologic CO2 storage project during the post-injection period, SIAM Conference on Computational Science and Engineering, Spokane, WA, February 25-March 1, 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., Overview of the NRAP-Open-IAM tool for carbon storage (beta release), 2019 Annual NRAP Tool Users Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, August 27, 2019. - Vasylkivska, V., Bacon, D., Chen, B., Dilmore, R., Harp, D., King, S., Lackey, G., Lindner, E., Liu, G., Mansoor, K. and Zhang, Y., NRAP-Open-IAM: A new, open-source code for integrated assessment of geologic carbon storage containment effectiveness and leakage risk, poster, American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2020 (virtual meeting), December 2020. - Vasylkivska, V., NRAP open-source integrated assessment model and relevant application, oral presentation, NRAP workshop "NRAP Tools for Geologic Carbon Storage Risk-Based Decision Making" held in conjunction with Groundwater Protection Council (GWPC) 2021 Annual Forum (virtual meeting), Salt Lake City, UT, September 2021. - Vasylkivska, V., NRAP-Open-IAM: open-source integrated assessment model, digital poster/demonstration, software demonstration session, 2022 Carbon Management Project Review Meeting, August 16, 2022

AoR↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the potential of composite confining systems for secure and long-term CO 2 retention in geosequestration

A potential geologic target for CO 2 storage should ensure secure containment of injected CO 2 . Traditionally, this objective has been achieved by targeting reservoirs with overlying seals-regionally extensive, low permeability units that have been proven capable of retaining buoyant fluid accumulations over geologic time. However, considering that the amount of CO 2 is limited by a decadal injection period, vertical migration of CO 2 can be effectively halted by a composite system of discontinuous shale/silt/mudstone barriers in bedded sedimentary rocks. Here, we studied the impact of depositional architectures in a composite confining system on CO 2 migration and confinement at reservoir scale. We stochastically generated lithologically heterogeneous reservoir models containing discontinuous barriers consistent with statistical distributions of net-sand-to-gross-shale ratio (NTG) and horizontal correlation lengths derived from well log data and observations of producing hydrocarbon fields in Southern Louisiana. We then performed an extensive suite of reservoir simulations of CO 2 injection and post-injection to evaluate the sensitivity of CO 2 plume migration and pressure response of the composite system to a series of geologic and fluid parameters including the lateral continuity of barriers, NTG, permeability anisotropy within the sand body, and capillary pressure contrast between the sand and shale facies. The results indicate that lateral continuity of barriers and NTG are the dominant controls on CO 2 plume geometry and pressure build-up in the reservoir, while the impact of NTG is particularly pronounced. The significance of intraformational barriers becomes apparent as they facilitate the local capillary trapping of CO 2 . Those barriers improve the pore space occupancy by promoting a more dispersed shape of the plume and ultimately retard the buoyancy-driven upward migration of the plume post injection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A robust deep learning workflow to predict multiphase flow behavior during geological C O 2 sequestration injection and Post-Injection periods

Simulation of multiphase flow in porous media is essential to manage the geologic CO 2 sequestration (GCS) process, and physics-based simulation approaches usually take prohibitively high computational cost due to the nonlinearity of the coupled physics. This paper contributes to the development and evaluation of a deep learning workflow that accurately and efficiently predicts the temporal-spatial evolution of pressure and CO 2 plumes during injection and post-injection periods of GCS operations. Based on a Fourier Neural Operator, the deep learning workflow takes input variables or features including rock properties, well operational controls and time steps, and predicts the state variables of pressure and CO 2 saturation. To further improve the predictive fidelity, separate deep learning models are trained for CO 2 injection and post-injection periods due to the difference in primary driving force of fluid flow and transport during these two phases. We also explore different combinations of features to predict the state variables. We use a realistic example of CO 2 injection and storage in a 3D heterogeneous saline aquifer, and apply the deep learning workflow that is trained from physics-based simulation data and emulate the physics process. Through this numerical experiment, we demonstrate that using two separate deep learning models to distinguish post-injection from injection period generates the most accurate prediction of pressure, and a single deep learning model of the whole GCS process including the cumulative injection volume of CO 2 as a deep learning feature, leads to the most accurate prediction of CO 2 saturation. For the post-injection period, it is key to use cumulative CO 2 injection volume to inform the deep learning models about the total carbon storage when predicting either pressure or saturation. The deep learning workflow not only provides high predictive fidelity across temporal and spatial scales, but also offers a speedup of 250 times compared to full physics reservoir simulation, and thus will be a significant predictive tool for engineers to manage the long-term process of GCS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Identifying Hydrometeorological Factors Influencing Reservoir Releases Using Machine Learning Methods

Simulation of reservoir releases plays a critical role in social-economic functioning and our nation's security. How-ever, it is challenging to predict the reservoir release accurately because of many influential factors from natural environments and engineering controls such as the reservoir inflow and storage. Moreover, climate change and hydrological intensification causing the extreme precipitation and temperature make the accurate prediction of reservoir releases even more challenging. Machine learning (ML) methods have shown some successful applications in simulating reservoir releases. However, previous studies mainly used inflow and storage data as inputs and only considered their short-term influences (e.g, previous one or two days). In this work, we use long short-term memory (LSTM) networks for reservoir release prediction based on four input variables including inflow, storage, precipitation, and temperature and consider their long-term influences. We apply the LSTM model to 30 reservoirs in Upper Colorado River Basin, United States. We analyze the prediction performance using six statistical metrics. More importantly, we investigate the influence of the input hydrometeorological factors, as well as their temporal effects on reservoir release decisions. Results indicate that inflow and storage are the most influential factors but the inclusion of precipitation and temperature can further improve the prediction of release especially in low flows. Additionally, the inflow and storage have a relatively long-term effect on the release. These findings can help optimize the water resources management in the reservoirs.

Fan, Ming↗
DOE OSTI2025

Phase II Field Demonstration at Lansing Smith Generating Plant, Southport, Florida (Final Report)

The Final Technical Report: Field Test Design and Pressure Management Strategies for Phase II Field Demonstration of Optimal Pressure Control, Plume Management, and Produced Water Strategies presents the culmination of multi-year efforts under the U.S. Department of Energy’s Brine Extraction and Storage Test (BEST) program, led by EPRI in partnership with Gulf Power at the Plant Smith site near Panama City, Florida. The project was designed to evaluate and demonstrate the technical feasibility of managing subsurface pressures and fluid movement associated with large-scale CO₂ injection, using low-salinity water as a proxy fluid. Through a combination of field injection testing, reservoir modeling, and optimization studies, the research team developed and refined active and passive brine extraction strategies aimed at controlling injection-induced pressure buildup, mitigating risks of fault activation, and managing plume migration. The field demonstration incorporated a new injection well (TIW-2), a new monitoring/extraction well (TEMW-A), and an existing well (TIW-1) repurposed for passive pressure relief. Complementary geophysical monitoring was designed to track plume development and evaluate the effectiveness of pressure management strategies. The report details the integrated workflow encompassing wellfield development, regulatory permitting, model calibration, and survey design. It includes a comprehensive electromagnetic (EM) modeling and inversion study used to develop a cost-effective, time-lapse geophysical monitoring plan capable of imaging the evolving low-salinity plume within the highly saline Lower Tuscaloosa formation. Reservoir simulation results guided the design of the 17-month injection program and the timing of active extraction to maintain formation pressures below a hypothetical fault reactivation threshold. Supporting analyses evaluated potential injectivity risks related to clay fines migration and geochemical incompatibility, identifying practical mitigation measures such as salinity and pH control. The final design recommends a series of crosswell EM surveys—conducted before, during, and after injection—as the most effective and economical approach for plume imaging, supplemented by continuous downhole pressure and flow monitoring. Collectively, the study provides a field-ready framework for cost-effective pressure management and monitoring in support of future CO₂ storage projects.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2023

Time-lapse VSP integration and calibration of subsurface stress field utilizing machine learning approaches: A case study of the morrow B formation, FWU

This study aims to develop a methodology for calibrating subsurface stress changes through time-lapse vertical seismic profiling (VSP) integration. The selected study site is a region around the injector well located within Farnsworth field unit (FWU), where there is an ongoing CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery (EOR) operation. In our study, a site-specific rock physics model was created from extensive geological, geophysical, and geomechanical characterization through 3D seismic data, well logs, and core assessed as part of the 1D MEM conducted on the characterization well within the study area. Here, the Biot-Gassmann workflow was utilized to combine the rock physics and reservoir simulation outputs to determine the seismic velocity change due to fluid substitution. Modeled seismic velocities attributed to mean effective stress were determined from the geomechanical simulation outputs, and the stress-velocity relationship developed from ultrasonic seismic velocity measurements. A machine learning-assisted workflow comprised of an artificial neural network and a particle swarm optimizer (PSO) was utilized to minimize a penalty function created between the modeled seismic velocities and the observed time-lapse VSP dataset. The successful execution of this workflow has affirmed the suitability of acoustic time-lapse measurements for 4D-VSP geomechanical stress calibration pending measurable stress sensitivities within the anticipated effective stress changes and the availability of suitable and reliable datasets for petroelastic modeling. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

CO 2 zonal injection rate allocation and plume extent evaluation through wellbore temperature analysis

Temperature analysis during a pause in injection operations, known as warmback analysis, has been used in the petroleum industry for evaluating the injection conformance and estimating the location of the flooded front in applications, such as waterflooding oil reservoirs. Here in this work, methods are introduced to extend the application of temperature warmback analysis to estimate the zonal CO 2 injection rate and zonal CO 2 plume extent during geologic CO 2 storage in a saline aquifer. First, novel analytical solutions are developed to model transient temperature in the aquifer during the injection and subsequent shut-in periods considering two-phase flow (gaseous CO 2 and aqueous brine) conditions in the aquifer. The solution involves a discretization of the aquifer into regions; the energy and mass conservation equations for the regions are solved simultaneously considering appropriate boundary conditions at the interfaces. Two solutions techniques are presented: multi-region and three-region solutions. Inverse models are developed accordingly to evaluate the injection profile and estimate the extent of the plume front in the reservoir during the injection period. The multi-region solution results in an inversion approach that requires regression analysis. However, the three-region formulation results in a simple graphical technique for inverse modeling. The analytical solutions are validated against a thermally coupled reservoir simulation tool using different synthetic cases for CO 2 injection in deep saline aquifers. The results of the developed solutions provide a good match with numerical results during forward and inverse modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗