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At least 73 records · Page 4

A Theoretical Approach for Reliability Within Information Supply Chains With Cycles and Negations

Complex networks of information processing systems, or information supply chains, present challenges for performance analysis. Here, we establish a mathematical setting, in which a process within an information supply chain can be analyzed in terms of the functionality of the system’s components. Principles of this methodology are rigorously defended and induce a model for determining the reliability for the various products in these networks. Our model does not limit us from having cycles in the network, as long as the cycles do not contain negation. It is shown that our approach to reliability resolves the nonuniqueness caused by cycles in a probabilistic Boolean network. An iterative algorithm is given to find the reliability values of the model, using a process that can be fully automated. This automated method of discerning reliability is beneficial for systems managers. As a systems manager considers systems modification, such as the replacement of owned and maintained hardware systems with cloud computing resources, the need for comparative analysis of system reliability is paramount. The model is extended to handle conditional knowledge about the network, allowing one to make predictions of weaknesses in the system. Finally, to illustrate the model’s flexibility over different forms, it is demonstrated on a system of components and subcomponents.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Integrating Transactive Energy into Reliability Evaluation for a Self-healing Distribution System with Microgrid

Non-utility owned distributed energy resources (DERs) are mostly untapped currently, but they can provide many grid services such as voltage regulation and service restoration, if properly controlled, and can improve the distribution systems reliability when coordinated with utility-owned assets such as self-healing control and microgrids. This paper integrates transactive energy control into the distribution system reliability evaluation to quantitatively assess the impact of non-utility owned DERs on reliability improvement. Here, a transactive reactive power control strategy is designed to incentivize the DERs to provide reactive power support for improving voltage profiles thus enabling additional customer load restoration during an outage. Also, an operational sequence to coordinate the non-utility owned DERs with the utility owned self-healing control and utility owned microgrids is designed and integrated into the service restoration process with the operational constraints guaranteed by checking the three-phase unbalanced power flow for post-fault network reconfiguration. The reliability indices are then calculated through a Monte Carlo simulation. The transactive reactive power control strategy is tested on a four-feeder distribution system operated by Duke Energy in the U.S. Results demonstrate that the non-utility owned DERs with the transactive control improve the reliability of both the system and critical loads by more than 30%.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

2024 Photovoltaic Inverter Reliability Workshop Summary Report & Proceedings

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) organized the 2024 Photovoltaic Inverter Reliability Workshop on April 11-12, 2024, hosted at NREL's South Table Mountain campus in Golden, Colorado. The workshop was organized around seven key topics, including the present state of inverter reliability; solutions for reliability challenges; life cycle cost and ownership issues; testing, standards, performance, and reliability metrics; data reporting, analytics, and sharing; and the future of PV inverter reliability research. Participants included inverter manufacturers, national laboratory researchers, academics, independent testing laboratories, and more. Over the course of the two-day workshop, attendees arrived at several key priorities and conclusions. This report summarizes these conclusions and then collects presentations from the workshop into a record of the workshop's proceedings.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Electric Drive Technologies Consortium (EDTC)/ Cost competitive, high-Performance, highly Reliable (CPR) Power Devices on 4H-SiC (Final Report)

4H-Silicon carbide (4H-SiC) is a wide bandgap semiconductor that offers superior material properties over silicon, including higher critical electric field, thermal conductivity, and electron saturation velocity. These advantages make 4H-SiC highly attractive for high-voltage, high-efficiency power electronics. However, realizing the full potential of SiC requires device technologies that are not only high-performing but also manufacturable and reliable under real-world operating conditions. This report summarizes the outcomes of a five-year R&D effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under the Electric Drive Technologies Consortium (EDTC), focused on developing cost-competitive, high-performance, and highly reliable (CPR) power devices on 4H-SiC substrates. The program targeted scalable and manufacturable 1.2 kV-class SiC MOSFETs optimized for next-generation electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and industrial power conversion. The project delivered transformative advancements in SiC power device performance and ruggedness. Particularly, Specific on-resistance (R on,sp ) was reduced by up to 37%, from ~4.0 m$\Omega \cdot$cm 2 in earlier designs to an industry-leading 2.40 m$\Omega \cdot$cm 2 , driven by optimized doping, refined JFET widths, and layout engineering. Breakdown voltages (BV) exceeded 1600 V, marking improvement over legacy baselines, and demonstrating the robustness of newly implemented junction profiles and edge terminations. Short-circuit withstand time (SCWT) saw a remarkable 4$\times$ increase, from ~2 $\mu$s to over 8 $\mu$s, achieved through the successful deployment of deep P-well structures (~1.8–2.0 $\mu$m) via channeling implantation. This innovative process breakthrough enabled precise junction formation without MeV-class implantation tools, reduced leakage under high field stress, and allowed even the shortest-channel devices (down to 0.3 $\mu$m) to achieve both high BV and excellent ruggedness—breaking the traditional trade-off between conduction efficiency and blocking capability. Several novel architectures pushed the performance envelope further. JBSFETs—featuring embedded Schottky portions—eliminated bipolar degradation and drastically reduced third-quadrant leakage, while Ladder MOSFETs introduced a clever orthogonal conduction path that achieved a 15.4% reduction in R on,sp over standard linear designs. Switching performance reached new benchmarks: short-channel devices showed a 31% reduction in total switching energy compared to 0.5 $\mu$m counterparts, while maintaining manageable gate drive requirements. Layout-optimized structures not only improved transconductance but also accelerated switching transitions, pointing to real-world benefits in converter-level efficiency. The devices also passed rigorous reliability validation. Stress-tested across TDDB, HTGB, HTRB, HVP, and burn-in, the devices screened under 30 V/10 hr and 43 V/1 s protocols consistently exhibited tighter lifetime distributions and long-term oxide robustness. These screening techniques proved effective in identifying latent defects and ensuring deployment-grade reliability. Meanwhile, advanced 3D TCAD simulations revealed and resolved electric field hotspots—particularly in HEXFET corners—where fields exceeding 4.8 MV/cm were mitigated through geometry-aware layout corrections. Overall, the results of this project demonstrate a manufacturable and scalable SiC power device platform that addresses key DOE performance targets for efficient, robust, and reliable 1.2kV 4H-SiC Power Devices. The developed technologies represent a meaningful step forward in the commercial readiness of high-voltage SiC solutions and provide a strong foundation for continued advancement in wide bandgap power electronics.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Explained: Maintaining a Reliable Future Grid with More Wind and Solar

Since the early 2000s, maintaining grid reliability has become more complex due to a variety of factors, including the changing generation mix, the creation of wholesale energy markets, and a growing number of extreme weather events. Parts of the U.S. grid are already operating with significant amounts of wind and solar generation - with 2022 annual wind and solar generation in the range of 25% to 40%. Even without considering the effects of extreme weather, maintaining reliability will require new capacity to address both growth in electric demand and retiring capacity. Based on the 2022 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) Long-Term Reliability Assessment, the combination of both growth in peak demand and retirements suggests a need for more than 100 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity by 2032. In general, there are a five categories of resources that are expected to be deployed and used to meet the challenge of maintaining an adequate source of supply in the coming decades: new wind and solar resources (accounting for their reliability contributions), energy storage, demand response resources, expanded transmission, and continued use of thermal generators.

power grid↗

Reliability Improvement and Effective Switching Layer Model of Thin-Film MoS 2 Memristors

2D memristors have demonstrated attractive resistive switching characteristics recently but also suffer from the reliability issue, which limits practical applications. Previous efforts on 2D memristors have primarily focused on exploring new material systems, while damage from the metallization step remains a practical concern for the reliability of 2D memristors. Here, the impact of metallization conditions and the thickness of MoS 2 films on the reliability and other device metrics of MoS 2 -based memristors is carefully studied. The statistical electrical measurements show that the reliability can be improved to 92% for yield and improved by ≈16× for average DC cycling endurance in the devices by reducing the top electrode (TE) deposition rate and increasing the thickness of MoS 2 films. Intriguing convergence of switching voltages and resistance ratio is revealed by the statistical analysis of experimental switching cycles. An “effective switching layer” model compatible with both monolayer and few-layer MoS 2 , is proposed to understand the reliability improvement related to the optimization of fabrication configuration and the convergence of switching metrics. In conclusion, the Monte Carlo simulations help illustrate the underlying physics of endurance failure associated with cluster formation and provide additional insight into endurance improvement with device fabrication optimization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Spatiotemporal Variability of Electric System Reliability Metrics

As urbanization continues to grow, urban density also rises, placing significant stress on critical infrastructure. Cities often face challenges in investing in new infrastructure or upgrading existing ones. One area of infrastructure that has come under strain is the electric grid, leading to prolonged power outages. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the average duration of power outages has steadily doubled from 2013 to 2021, primarily due to extreme weather events. The IEEE has developed a series of reliability metrics to assess the reliability of the electric system. However, these metrics are only applied at the utility level, making it challenging to comprehend the variations in these indices at finer spatial resolutions and, consequently, evaluate reliability at the non-utility level. In this study, we leveraged electric outage data collected at 15-minute intervals at the county level to estimate electric system reliability over a six-year period using a novel data analysis approach. Our findings reveal a gradual decline in reliability in the U.S. Southwest compared to national averages. Furthermore, the duration of outages per customer per event has significantly decreased in large portions of California and Florida. These discoveries can be valuable for utility companies as they seek to pinpoint regional anomalies and plan for prioritized remediation efforts.

Singh, Nagendra↗

Reliability Prediction using FMEA, FTA, and Related Techniques [Slides]

Summary: We presented a reliability analysis framework. We made point estimates of reliability using reliability block diagrams, fault trees, success trees and estimates with uncertainty using expert elicitation, Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian analysis. Expert elicitation of failure modes and probabilities is labor-intensive, but critical. Bayesian analysis updates information from expert elicitation with data from reliability and aging tests (aging/compatibility data are needed to estimate lower-bound reliabilities at end of life). Estimation by more than one method helps insure consistency and accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Bridging Equipment Reliability Data and Robust Decisions in a Plant Operation Context

In order to reduce operation and maintenance (O&M) costs, nuclear power plants (NPPs) are moving from corrective and periodic maintenance to predictive maintenance strategies. Such transition requires changes on the data that needs to be retrieved and on the type of decision processes to be employed. Advanced monitoring and data analysis technologies are essential to support predictive strategies. They can in fact provide precise information about health of a component, track its degradation trends, and provide information of its expected failure time. With such information, maintenance operations for a component can be performed right before its expected failure time. This dynamic context of O&M operations requires new methods to analyze data, propagate component health information from the component to the system level, and optimize plant resources. In this respect, the risk informed asset management (RIAM) project has been tasked to develop and test this new class of methods into a risk analytics toolset. This toolset consists of data analytics tools coupled with reliability methods designed to manage plant assets and performances in a predictive maintenance context. This report shows the latest improvements on such development and the initial testing of our methods on the three main research areas that the RIAM project is focusing on. These areas are the following: equipment reliability data analytics, system reliability modeling, and plant resources optimization methods. We show how the methods developed in these areas can support predictive maintenance strategies by: 1) analyzing equipment reliability data (either in numeric and textual form), 2) assessing component and system health through an innovative margin-based reliability approach, and 3) identifying the most critical components and set optimal maintenance schedule based on plant economic and operational constraints.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Bootstrap Approach to Quantifying Reliabilities and Uncertainties of Complex Systems

While much work has been done in analyzing margins and uncertainties at the component level, a gap exists in NNSA methodology relating component level reliabilities and uncertainties to system level reliability and uncertainty. This paper shows how component level reliability data can be combined via a bootstrap analysis to estimate system level reliabilities and uncertainties. The performance of the bootstrap for this problem is validated through simulation studies. This paper extends the original work of Crowder by including sensitivity analyses related to changes in samples sizes and component failure probabilities. The use of the bootstrap as a decision-making tool is thus developed by quantifying the effect of such changes on system reliability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Computational materials reliability assessment of hydrogen fueled gas turbine power generation engines

The use of blended fuel sources in land based gas turbine engines drives variations in the resulting operational profile (temperatures and pressures) which can impact engine reliability. Furthermore, variability in the manufacture of components affects the resulting microstructure which directly impacts material performance and reliability. Currently, data-driven models are typically used for maintaining and inspecting fleets of engines. Without explicitly capturing material and operational sources of variability conservatism must be used in developing component-level reliability models. Therefore, there exists an opportunity to use information from materials-scale physics models to better inform reliability modeling and reduce conservatism; the impact is more cost-efficient operation and maintenance of current and future fleets. Specifically, this work establishes a computational framework for evaluating the probabilistic high temperature creep performance of hot-section Ni-based superalloys where uncertainty comes from both microstructural and operational variability. A novel high-fidelity physics model which phenomenologically captures grain-boundary sensitive phenomena has been established. A probabilistic calibration procedure was used to calibrate the model and capture uncertainty in the parameterized model coefficients. A design of experiments methodology was established for identifying informative microstructural digital representations for suitable for forward model evaluation. Results show that training a machine-learning surrogate using this design criteria outperforms random selection of microstructural representations. Finally, two surrogate models were developed: (1) a deterministic surrogate model which predicts the local field response given microstructure, constitutive model parameters, and operating conditions (stress, temperature) and (2) a probabilistic model, where uncertainty comes from constitutive law uncertainty, built using denoising diffusion probabilistic models which samples responses given (1) microstructure and (2) operating conditions. These surrogate models enable partner Siemens Energy to rapidly perform UQ analysis specific to creep deformation across a range of microstructures and operating conditions. The impact is that these ML and physics codes can be used to establish more advanced reliability models for the inspection, servicing, and maintenance of land based gas turbine engines.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Reliability of Digital Communications in Nuclear Facilities and Operations

A comprehensive evaluation of methods to compare the reliability of wired and wireless digital communication networks for use in nuclear power plants. The study underscores the critical role of communication reliability in ensuring operational safety in nuclear power plants. Key objectives include developing a methodology to assess communication technologies’ reliability, particularly for comparing wireless and wired networks, for nuclear facility applications. The framework focuses on technology-agnostic evaluations and emphasizes the importance of reliability metrics spanning safety, security, and monitoring functions. The framework emphasizes that the key performance indicators are application dependent and provides a hierarchy of different network types that will have different reliability requirements. The report considers both existing plants and advanced reactors, including small modular reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Reliability, biological variability, and accuracy of multi-frequency bioelectrical impedance analysis for measuring body composition components

Introduction Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) systems are gaining popularity for use in research and fitness assessments as the technology improves and becomes more affordable and easier to use. Multifrequency BIA (MF-BIA) may improve accuracy and precision using octopolar contacts for segmental analyses. Purpose Evaluate reliability, biological variability, and accuracy of component measures (total body water, mass, and composition) of commercially available MF-BIA system (InBody 770, Cerritos, California, USA). Methods Fourteen healthy military-age adults were assessed by MF-BIA in duplicate on five laboratory visits across 3 weeks (10 measures each). Participants were evaluated at the same time of day after refraining from strenuous exercise (> 48 h), alcohol consumption (> 24 h), and caffeine, nicotine, and food (> 10 h). Systematic error (test–retest reliability) and biological variability (day-to-day reliability) were summarized by intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) values determined for body mass (fat, fat-free, total) and body water (extracellular, intracellular, total). Body composition measurements derived from BIA on the second visit were also tested for accuracy compared to dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA). Results Test–retest reliability was very high for all measurements of whole-body water and mass (ICC ≥ 0.999) and high for regional body water and mass (ICC 0.973–1.000). Biological variability was observable with very minor differences between tests (same day) for total and regional body water (0.0–0.2 L) and total and regional body mass measurements (0.0–0.2 kg); while between day differences were slightly higher (0.0–0.5 L and 0.1–0.7 kg). Compared to DXA, the MF-BIA whole-body measures showed an offset in %BF (Bias −4.0 ± 2.8%; Standard error of the estimate (SEE), 2.6%), an overprediction for total body fat-free mass (Bias 2.8 ± 2.1 kg; SEE 2.2 kg) and an underprediction of total body fat mass (Bias −2.9 ± 2.0 kg; SEE 1.9 kg). Conclusion Under controlled conditions with fit and healthy men and women, this MF-BIA system has high methodological reliability and demonstrates stable day-to-day measurements of major body composition components. Previously reported ~3% body fat offset compared to criterion methods was again confirmed. Precision of the InBody 770 shows consistency and supports further testing of this specific device as a new military standards method and suitability across a wider range of %BF.

Nutrition & Dietetics↗

Photovoltaic Inverter Failure Mechanism Estimation Using Unsupervised Machine Learning and Reliability Assessment

This article introduces a data-driven approach to assessing failure mechanisms and reliability degradation in outdoor photovoltaic (PV) string inverters. The manufacturer's stated PV inverter lifetime can vary due to the impact of operating site conditions. To address limitations in degradation estimation through accelerated testing, condition monitoring, or degradation modeling, we propose a machine learning (ML) oriented approach. Utilizing data from a 1.4 MW PV power plant operational since 2016, with 46 string PV inverters tied to the grid, we employ the unsupervised one-class support vector machine ML technique to analyze inverter and sensor data, capable of classifying humidity cycling and temperature fluctuations as dominant failure mechanisms. Utilizing the anomaly alert relationship and alert details specific to the inverter, the level of PV inverter output is considered as its availability or available reliability. Subsequently, a continuous Markov model is applied to six-month alert data, revealing an average stated reliability of 20% after 20 years of continuous operation. These results support recommendations for time-bound preventive measures to enhance PV inverter reliability under diverse outdoor conditions. Furthermore, the approach provides a nondestructive, top–down, and generalized method for analyzing any commercial PV inverter exposed to outdoor conditions, contingent on the availability of relevant data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Populating the Hydrogen Component Reliability Database (HYCRED) with Incident Data from Hydrogen Dispensing

Safety, risk, and reliability issues are vital to ensure the continuous and profitable operation of hydrogen technologies. Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) has been used to enable the safe deployment of engineering systems, especially hydrogen fueling stations. However, QRA studies require reliability data which are essential to collect to make the studies as realistic and relevant as possible. These data are currently lacking and data from other industries, such as oil and gas, are used in hydrogen system QRAs. This may lead to inaccurate results since hydrogen fueling stations have differences in physical properties, system design, and operational parameters when compared to other fueling stations, thus necessitating new data sources are necessary to capture the effects of these differences. To address this gap, we developed a structure for a hydrogen component reliability database, (HyCReD) [1], which could be used to generate reliability data to be used in QRA studies. In this paper, we demonstrate populating the HyCReD database with information extracted from new narrative reports on hydrogen fueling station incidents, specifically focused on the dispensing processes. We analyze five new events and demonstrate the feasibility of populating the database and types of meaningful insights that can be obtained at this stage.

component reliability↗

Time Distribution Analysis for Task Primitives to Support Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis

To support data collection for dynamic human reliability analysis (HRA), this study investigates time distributions for task primitives defined in the Goals, Operators, Methods, and Selection rules (GOMS)–Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) method and Human Reliability data EXtraction (HuREX). GOMS-HRA was developed to provide cognition-based time and human error probability (HEP) information for dynamic HRA calculations within the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER) framework, while HuREX is a comprehensive HRA data collection method developed by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). In this paper, we examine time distributions by using experimental data collected from the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP) study, which proposes an HRA data collection framework to complement full-scope simulator research and gather input data for dynamic HRA by using simplified simulators such as the Rancor Microworld simulator. This paper investigates whether the time required for GOMS-HRA and HuREX task primitives fits 13 statistical distributions. Additionally, we compare and discuss the time distributions obtained from both student operators and professional operators. The result was that this study identified several time distributions for five GOMS-HRA and four HuREX task primitives. In the future, the results of this study are expected to provide objective reference data on the elapsed time for task primitives and aid in realistically simulating scenarios within dynamic HRA.

Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis↗

Evaluating grid stress and reliability in future electricity grids across a range of demand, generation mix, and weather trends

The reliability of power grids in the future will depend on how system planners account for the integration of new technologies, extreme weather events, and uncertainties in demand growth from increased electrification and data centers. This study introduces an open-source, multisectoral, multiscale modeling framework that projects grid stress and reliability trends between 2020 and 2055 in the Western Interconnection of the United States. The framework integrates global to national energy-water-land dynamics with power plant siting and hourly grid operations modeling. We analyze future wholesale electricity price shocks and unserved energy events across eight scenarios spanning a range of population growth and economic change, generation mixes, and weather conditions. Our results show future grids with high percentage of non-renewable generation and strong economic growth are characterized by higher reliability and lower wholesale electricity prices than lower growth scenarios because of larger reliance on dispatchable generators and lower fossil fuel extraction costs. Scenarios with high percentage of renewable resources have lower median but more volatile wholesale electricity prices as well as more frequent and severe unserved energy events compared to scenarios relying more on dispatchable generators. These events occur because higher proportion of solar and wind energy causes net demand curves to deepen during midday (duck curves get progressively severe), exacerbating the challenge of meeting demand during summer evening peaks. This study suggests that robust and co-optimized transmission and energy storage planning could help maintain low wholesale electricity prices and high reliability levels in future electricity grids across uncertainties in generation mixes.

Electric grid reliability↗

Integrated multimodel analysis reveals achievable pathways toward reliable, 100% renewable electricity for Los Angeles

Climate change has prompted many communities to set targets for carbon-free power supplies, but they often lack data-driven strategies to achieve them. We present a comprehensive analysis of an entirely renewable electric power system that can maintain operating reliability and resource adequacy using detailed models of the city of Los Angeles power grid. In consultation with the operating utility, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP), and the local community, we develop four supply scenarios across three demand projections to analyze which types of infrastructure and operational changes would achieve reliable electricity at least cost. We find that a reliable, 100%-renewable power system yielding more than $1 billion annually in health and climate co-benefits is achievable. Solar can supply most future energy needs, while combustion turbines that use renewable, storable carbon-neutral fuels are key to maintaining reliability. This study provides a replicable methodology that other jurisdictions globally can follow.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗