Results for “reasonable confidence” — Page 4

NASA NTRS1997

Effects of FU Orionis Outbursts on Protoplanetary Disks

In the early stages of work under this grant, we developed simulations to match the light curves of the three best studied systems: FU Ori, V1515 Cyg, & V1057 Cyg (Bell et al. 1995). We compared the details of model results to observations to test the validity of the thermal ionization instability model for outburst. In this paper, we were able to answer several of the key objections to the accretion disk outburst model for the FU Orionis phenomenon (eg. Herbig 1989). The declines in line width and reddening observed in V1057 Cyg following peak light had been used as arguments against the disk instability model. We showed these effects to be natural consequences of the slow outward progression and limited radial excursion of the ionization front during outburst. By the end of the grant period, we had begun combining the inner and outer disk models to derive the radiation expected in the planet forming region of the disk. A crucial step in this was the development of a radiative transfer model of the complete inner and outer disk system (Turner, Bodenheimer, & Bell 1997). In this work, wavelength dependent opacities were used to synthesize images and spectral energy distributions of FU Ori objects. New detailed opacities provided by Alexander (1995) allowed the resolution of coarse features such as silicate emission lines. Data for the fits were taken from the time dependent simulations in Bell et al. (1995) to which was added the effect of disk to disk or "self"-reprocessing which accounts for the illumination of the outer disk by the inner disk (Bell 1998). Through the course of work on this grant we have made considerable progress in computing detailed models of both the active outburst region of the disk and the outer quiescent disk. We have begun an investigation into the effects of a cocooning envelope. Direct comparisons with observations lend confidence that the basic underlying assumptions of the outburst model are reasonable. We are now ready to build upon these results to investigate the effects of outbursts on the central star and on the accumulation of small particles in the planet-forming regions.

Bodenheimer, Peter↗

NASA NTRS1987

New methods and results for quantification of lightning-aircraft electrodynamics

The NASA F-106 collected data on the rates of change of electromagnetic parameters on the aircraft surface during over 700 direct lightning strikes while penetrating thunderstorms at altitudes from 15,000 t0 40,000 ft (4,570 to 12,190 m). These in situ measurements provided the basis for the first statistical quantification of the lightning electromagnetic threat to aircraft appropriate for determining indirect lightning effects on aircraft. These data are used to update previous lightning criteria and standards developed over the years from ground-based measurements. The proposed standards will be the first which reflect actual aircraft responses measured at flight altitudes. Nonparametric maximum likelihood estimates of the distribution of the peak electromagnetic rates of change for consideration in the new standards are obtained based on peak recorder data for multiple-strike flights. The linear and nonlinear modeling techniques developed provide means to interpret and understand the direct-strike electromagnetic data acquired on the F-106. The reasonable results obtained with the models, compared with measured responses, provide increased confidence that the models may be credibly applied to other aircraft.

Pitts, Felix L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

MODIS Collection 6 Clear Sky Restoral (CSR): Filtering Cloud Mast 'Not Clear' Pixels

Correctly identifying cloudy pixels appropriate for the MOD06 cloud optical and microphysical property retrievals is accomplished in large part using results from the MOD35 1km cloud mask tests (note there are also two 250m subpixel cloud mask tests that can convert the 1km cloudy designations to clear sky). However, because MOD35 is by design clear sky conservative (i.e., it identifies "not clear" pixels), certain situations exist in which pixels identified by MOD35 as "cloudy" are nevertheless likely to be poor retrieval candidates. For instance, near the edge of clouds or within broken cloud fields, a given 1km MODIS field of view (FOV) may in fact only be partially cloudy. This can be problematic for the MOD06 retrievals because in these cases the assumptions of a completely overcast homogenous cloudy FOV and 1-dimensional plane-parallel radiative transfer no longer hold, and subsequent retrievals will be of low confidence. Furthermore, some pixels may be identified by MOD35 as "cloudy" for reasons other than the presence of clouds, such as scenes with thick smoke or lofted dust, and should therefore not be retrieved as clouds. With such situations in mind, a Clear Sky Restoral (CSR) algorithm was introduced in C5 that attempts to identify pixels expected to be poor retrieval candidates. Table 1 provides SDS locations for CSR and partly cloudy (PCL) pixels.

cloud mask↗

NASA NTRS1980

Software reliability: A comparison of results obtained from established software reliability models

Two models of the software error detection process are compared, the Jelinski-Moranda model and a Bayes inference model. Simulation techniques are used to generate software related system failure data which is analyzed by both models. Point estimates and confidence limits are compared. It is demonstrated that uncertainty may be considerable for reasonable samples sizes and should be considered in any application of these techniques. The Jelinski-Moranda model is sensitive to the failure of data to follow internal assumptions of the model, often not providing any point estimates, a factor which may limit its usefulness in many real world situations. The Bayes model is shown to respond to the introduction of additional errors in the software correction process, a condition where error counting models such as the Jelinski-Moranda generally fail to converge.

Horn, M. H.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Aggregating Confidence: A Problem and A Solution

This paper has two main purposes: to articulate a concern about assessing arguments based on confidence; and to provide an assessment procedure which takes this concern into account. The concern is that confidence is a tricky notion for non-deductive Arguments: doubts inherent in Reasoning coalesces with doubts inherent in Premises. And, within a Compound Argument, this may happen many times over, thus accumulating in unpredictable ways. We explain two procedures we have developed to help address the concern in a methodical way.

language↗

NASA NTRS1987

Using the Landsat Thematic Mapper to detect and monitor active volcanoes - An example from Lascar volcano, northern Chile

The Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) offers a means of detecting and monitoring thermal features of active volcanoes. Using the TM, a prominent thermal anomaly has been discovered on Lascar volcano, northern Chile. Data from two short-wavelength infrared channels of the TM show that material within a 300-m-diameter pit crater was at a temperature of at least 380 C on two dates in 1985. The thermal anomaly closely resembles in size and radiant temperature the anomaly over the active lava lake at Erta'ale in Ethiopia. An eruption took place at Lascar on Sept. 16, 1986. TM data acquired on Oct. 27, 1986, revealed significant changes within the crater area. Lascar is in a much more active state than any other volcano in the central Andes, and for this reason it merits further careful monitoring. Studies show that the TM is capable of confidently identifying thermal anomalies less than 100 m in size, at temperatures of above 150 C, and thus it offers a valuable means of monitoring the conditions of active or potentially active volcanoes, particularly those in remote regions.

Francis, P. W.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Validating Human Performance Models of the Future Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle

NASA's Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV) will provide transportation for crew and cargo to and from destinations in support of the Constellation Architecture Design Reference Missions. Discrete Event Simulation (DES) is one of the design methods NASA employs for crew performance of the CEV. During the early development of the CEV, NASA and its prime Orion contractor Lockheed Martin (LM) strived to seek an effective low-cost method for developing and validating human performance DES models. This paper focuses on the method developed while creating a DES model for the CEV Rendezvous, Proximity Operations, and Docking (RPOD) task to the International Space Station. Our approach to validation was to attack the problem from several fronts. First, we began the development of the model early in the CEV design stage. Second, we adhered strictly to M&S development standards. Third, we involved the stakeholders, NASA astronauts, subject matter experts, and NASA's modeling and simulation development community throughout. Fourth, we applied standard and easy-to-conduct methods to ensure the model's accuracy. Lastly, we reviewed the data from an earlier human-in-the-loop RPOD simulation that had different objectives, which provided us an additional means to estimate the model's confidence level. The results revealed that a majority of the DES model was a reasonable representation of the current CEV design.

Wong, Douglas T.↗

NASA NTRS2011

New Technology/Old Technology: Comparing Lunar Grain Size Distribution Data and Methods

Laser diffraction technology generates reproducible grain size distributions and reveals new structures not apparent in old sieve data. The comparison of specific sieve fractions with the Microtrac distribution curve generated for those specific fractions shows a reasonable match for the mean of each fraction between the two techniques, giving us confidence that the large existing body of sieve data can be cross-correlated with new data based on laser diffraction. It is well-suited for lunar soils, which have as much as 25% of the material in the less than 20 micrometer fraction. The fines in this range are of particular interest because they may contain a record of important space weathering processes.

Fruland, R. M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Soot Surface Oxidation in Laminar Hydrocarbon/Air Diffusion Flames at Atmospheric Pressure

Soot surface oxidation was studied experimentally in laminar hydrocarbon/air diffusion flames at atmospheric pressure. Measurements were carried out along the axes of round fuel jets burning in coflowing dry air considering acetylene-nitrogen, ethylene, propyiene-nitrogen, propane and acetylene-benzene-nitrogen in the fuel stream. Measurements were limited to the initial stages of soot oxidation (carbon consumption less than 70%) where soot oxidation occurs at the surface of primary soot particles. The following properties were measured as a function of distance above the burner exit: soot concentrations by deconvoluted laser extinction, soot temperatures by deconvoluted multiline emission, soot structure by thermophoretic sampling and analysis using Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM), concentrations of major stable gas species (N2, H2O, H2, O2, CO, CO2, CH4, C2H2, C2H6, C3H6, C3H8, and C6H6) by sampling and gas chromatography, concentrations of some radical species (H, OH, O) by deconvoluted Li/LiOH atomic absorption and flow velocities by laser velocimetry. For present test conditions, it was found that soot surface oxidation rates were not affected by fuel type, that direct rates of soot surface oxidation by O2 estimated from Nagle and Strickland-Constable (1962) were small compared to observed soot surface oxidation rates because soot surface oxidation was completed near the flame sheet where O2 concentrations were less than 3% by volume, and that soot surface oxidation rates were described by the OH soot surface oxidation mechanism with a collision efficiency of 0.14 and an uncertainty (95% confidence) of +/- 0.04 when allowing for direct soot surface oxidation by O2, which is in reasonably good agreement with earlier observations of soot surface oxidation rates in both premixed and diffusion flames at atmospheric pressure.

Xu, F.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Development of a User Interface for a Regression Analysis Software Tool

An easy-to -use user interface was implemented in a highly automated regression analysis tool. The user interface was developed from the start to run on computers that use the Windows, Macintosh, Linux, or UNIX operating system. Many user interface features were specifically designed such that a novice or inexperienced user can apply the regression analysis tool with confidence. Therefore, the user interface s design minimizes interactive input from the user. In addition, reasonable default combinations are assigned to those analysis settings that influence the outcome of the regression analysis. These default combinations will lead to a successful regression analysis result for most experimental data sets. The user interface comes in two versions. The text user interface version is used for the ongoing development of the regression analysis tool. The official release of the regression analysis tool, on the other hand, has a graphical user interface that is more efficient to use. This graphical user interface displays all input file names, output file names, and analysis settings for a specific software application mode on a single screen which makes it easier to generate reliable analysis results and to perform input parameter studies. An object-oriented approach was used for the development of the graphical user interface. This choice keeps future software maintenance costs to a reasonable limit. Examples of both the text user interface and graphical user interface are discussed in order to illustrate the user interface s overall design approach.

Ulbrich, Norbert Manfred↗

NASA NTRS1988

Linear and nonlinear interpretation of CV-580 lightning data

Numerical models developed for the study of lightning strike data acquired by in-flight aircraft are applied to the data measured on the CV-580. The basic technique used is the three dimensional time domain finite difference solution of Maxwell's equations. Both linear and nonlinear models are used in the analysis. In the linear model, the lightning channel and the aircraft are assumed to form a linear time invariant system. A transfer function technique can then be used to study the response of the aircraft to a given lightning strike current. Conversely, the lightning current can be inferred from the measured response. In the nonlinear model, the conductivity of air in the vicinity of the aircraft is calculated and incorporated into the solution of the Maxwell's equations. The nonlinear model thus simulates corona formation and air breakdown. Results obtained from the models are in reasonable agreement with the measured data. This study provides another validation of the models and increases confidence that the models may be used to predict aircraft response to any general lightning strike.

Ng, Poh H.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Applied virtual reality in aerospace design

A virtual reality (VR) applications program has been under development at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) since 1989. The objectives of the MSFC VR Applications Program are to develop, assess, validate, and utilize VR in hardware development, operations development and support, mission operations training and science training. Before VR can be used with confidence in a particular application, VR must be validated for that class of applications. For that reason, specific validation studies for selected classes of applications have been proposed and are currently underway. These include macro-ergonomic 'control room class' design analysis, Spacelab stowage reconfiguration training, a full-body microgravity functional reach simulator, a gross anatomy teaching simulator, and micro-ergonomic design analysis. This paper describes the MSFC VR Applications Program and the validation studies.

Hale, Joseph P.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Accelerance Decoupling: An Approach for Removing the Influence of the Test Stand from the Integrated Modal Test

The main objective for launch vehicle (LV) modal testing is to quantify the LV’s modal properties in the free-free state (post pad separation). However, given the size of most LV systems, free-free testing is a challenge and often not feasible. With this, a test stand, typically the launch pad itself, is introduced as the means of support. This shifts the challenge to developing robust numerical methods for removing the influence of the launch pad from the integrated system modal test. The Space Launch System (SLS) is no exception where the mobile launcher (ML) is used to support the vehicle for the integrated modal test (IMT). For the IMT, it is well understood from pre-test analysis with finite element models (FEMs) of the SLS and SLS coupled to ML that the ML has a significant influence on the SLS modal properties especially in the lower frequency range where the primary SLS bending modes exist. An accelerance decoupling (AD) method has been formulated for the purpose of “subtracting out” the influence of the ML from the IMT results. With AD, the SLS decoupled frequency response functions (FRFs) are directly extracted from the IMT FRFs. The subject approach is aimed to utilize measured data only and achieve a robust FRF decoupling scheme. AD is derived from a widely used coupling technique called “Receptance Coupling” (RC). The AD core equation reverses the RC process and utilizes a pair of auxiliary equations that enable the core equation to be resolved based on measured data only. In AD, the decoupled component FRFs are extracted from the coupled system FRFs with a transformation to remove the contribution of the “subtractive component”. This paper addresses the AD’s operational flexibility to resolve SLS free-free modal properties from coupled system measured data but also the possibility to include data from FEM if there is enough confidence in the FEM or if it is asserted that the effect to the final outcome is reasonable.

Accelerance decoupling↗

NASA NTRS2022

Accelerance Decoupling: An Approach for Removing the Influence of the Test Stand from the Integrated Modal Test

The main objective for launch vehicle (LV) modal testing is to quantify the LV’s modal properties in the free-free state (post pad separation). However, given the size of most LV systems, free-free testing is a challenge and often not feasible. With this, a test stand, typically the launch pad itself, is introduced as the means of support. This shifts the challenge to developing robust numerical methods for removing the influence of the launch pad from the integrated system modal test. The Space Launch System (SLS) is no exception where the mobile launcher (ML) is used to support the vehicle for the integrated modal test (IMT). For the IMT, it is well understood from pre-test analysis with finite element models (FEMs) of the SLS and SLS coupled to ML that the ML has a significant influence on the SLS modal properties especially in the lower frequency range where the primary SLS bending modes exist. An accelerance decoupling (AD) method has been formulated for the purpose of “subtracting out” the influence of the ML from the IMT results. With AD, the SLS decoupled frequency response functions (FRFs) are directly extracted from the IMT FRFs. The subject approach is aimed to utilize measured data only and achieve a robust FRF decoupling scheme. AD is derived from a widely used coupling technique called “Receptance Coupling” (RC). The AD core equation reverses the RC process and utilizes a pair of auxiliary equations that enable the core equation to be resolved based on measured data only. In AD, the decoupled component FRFs are extracted from the coupled system FRFs with a transformation to remove the contribution of the “subtractive component”. This paper addresses the AD’s operational flexibility to resolve SLS free-free modal properties from coupled system measured data but also the possibility to include data from FEM if there is enough confidence in the FEM or if it is asserted that the effect to the final outcome is reasonable.

Accelerance decoupling↗

NASA NTRS2022

Accelerance Decoupling: An Approach for Removing the Influence of the Test Stand from the Integrated Modal Test

The main objective for launch vehicle (LV) modal testing is to quantify the LV’s modal properties in the free-free state (post pad separation). However, given the size of most LV systems, free-free testing is a challenge and often not feasible. With this, a test stand, typically the launch pad itself, is introduced as the means of support. This shifts the challenge to developing robust numerical methods for removing the influence of the launch pad from the integrated system modal test. The Space Launch System (SLS) is no exception where the mobile launcher (ML) is used to support the vehicle for the integrated modal test (IMT). For the IMT, it is well understood from pre-test analysis with finite element models (FEMs) of the SLS and SLS coupled to ML that the ML has a significant influence on the SLS modal properties especially in the lower frequency range where the primary SLS bending modes exist. An accelerance decoupling (AD) method has been formulated for the purpose of “subtracting out” the influence of the ML from the IMT results. With AD, the SLS decoupled frequency response functions (FRFs) are directly extracted from the IMT FRFs. The subject approach is aimed to utilize measured data only and achieve a robust FRF decoupling scheme. AD is derived from a widely used coupling technique called “Receptance Coupling” (RC). The AD core equation reverses the RC process and utilizes a pair of auxiliary equations that enable the core equation to be resolved based on measured data only. In AD, the decoupled component FRFs are extracted from the coupled system FRFs with a transformation to remove the contribution of the “subtractive component”. This paper addresses the AD’s operational flexibility to resolve SLS free-free modal properties from coupled system measured data but also the possibility to include data from FEM if there is enough confidence in the FEM or if it is asserted that the effect to the final outcome is reasonable.

Accelerance decoupling↗

NASA NTRS1974

Machine-aided analysis of land use - Landform relations from ERTS-1 MSS imagery, Sand Hills Region, Nebraska

Machine-aided analysis of ERTS-1 MSS data obtained over the Sand Hills of Nebraska indicates that reasonably accurate soils maps can be produced automatically. An interpretation of spectral class spatial distribution and statistical character allows confident assignment of familiar soil and cover type names to computer classes. Resultant computer classification maps are displayed on a television screen or printer image. Correlation between computer maps and the USDA soils map of the same area is high. Geographic distribution of classes of interest can be accentuated by automatic methods. Percentages of cover type for any classified area also can be obtained. Interpretation of machine maps yields information concerning land use, physiographic, soil, and hydrologic patterns of the region.

Sinnock, S.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Space Radiation Cancer Risks

Space radiation presents major challenges to astronauts on the International Space Station and for future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Methods used to project risks on Earth need to be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting cancer risks from space radiation, and thus impact safety factors. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts: The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in the radiation cancer projection model. NASA s acceptable level of risk for ISS and their new lunar program have been set at the point-estimate of a 3-percent risk of exposure induced death (REID). Tissue-averaged organ dose-equivalents are combined with age at exposure and gender-dependent risk coefficients to project the cumulative occupational radiation risks incurred by astronauts. The 95% CL criteria in practice is a stronger criterion than ALARA, but not an absolute cut-off as is applied to a point projection of a 3% REID. We describe the most recent astronaut dose limits, and present a historical review of astronaut organ doses estimates from the Mercury through the current ISS program, and future projections for lunar and Mars missions. NASA s 95% CL criteria is linked to a vibrant ground based radiobiology program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and heavy ions. The near-term goal of research is new knowledge leading to the reduction of uncertainties in projection models. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. The current model for projecting space radiation cancer risk relies on the three assumptions of linearity, additivity, and scaling along with the use of population averages. We describe uncertainty estimates for this model, and new experimental data that sheds light on the accuracy of the underlying assumptions. These methods make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including lunar station, deep space outpost, and a Mars mission. Factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties and application of this approach to assess candidate mitigation approaches are described.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Science Goals in Radiation Protection for Exploration

Space radiation presents major challenges to future missions to the Earth s moon or Mars. Health risks of concern include cancer, degenerative and performance risks to the central nervous system, heart and lens, and the acute radiation syndromes. The galactic cosmic rays (GCR) contain high energy and charge (HZE) nuclei, which have been shown to cause qualitatively distinct biological damage compared to terresterial radiation, such as X-rays or gamma-rays, causing risk estimates to be highly uncertain. The biological effects of solar particle events (SPE) are similar to terresterial radiation except for their biological dose-rate modifiers; however the onset and size of SPEs are difficult to predict. The high energies of GCR reduce the effectiveness of shielding, while SPE s can be shielded however the current gap in radiobiological knowledge hinders optimization. Methods used to project risks on Earth must be modified because of the large uncertainties in projecting health risks from space radiation, and thus impact mission requirements and costs. We describe NASA s unique approach to radiation safety that applies probabilistic risk assessments and uncertainty based criteria within the occupational health program for astronauts and to mission design. The two terrestrial criteria of a point estimate of maximum acceptable level of risk and application of the principle of As Low As Reasonably Achievable (ALARA) are supplemented by a third requirement that protects against risk projection uncertainties using the upper 95% confidence level (CL) in radiation risk projection models. Exploration science goals in radiation protection are centered on ground-based research to achieve the necessary biological knowledge, and in the development of new technologies to improve SPE monitoring and optimize shielding. Radiobiology research is centered on a ground based program investigating the radiobiology of high-energy protons and HZE nuclei at the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) located at DoE s Brookhaven National Laboratory in Upton, NY. We describe recent NSRL results that are closing the knowledge gap in HZE radiobiology and improving exploration risk estimates. Linking probabilistic risk assessment to research goals makes it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative metrics, which include the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits, and probabilistic assessments of the effectiveness of design trade spaces such as material type, mass, solar cycle, crew selection criteria, and biological countermeasures. New research in SPE alert and risk assessment, individual radiation sensitivity, and biological countermeasure development are described.

Cucinotta, Francs A.↗