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Network transmission errors such as collisions, CRC errors, misalignment, etc. are statistical in nature. Although errors can vary randomly, a high level of errors does indicate specific network problems, e.g. equipment failure. In this project, we have studied the random nature of collisions theoretically as well as by gathering statistics, and established a numerical threshold above which a network problem is indicated with high probability.
The basic parameters relevant to the design of network timing systems describe the random and systematic time departures of the system elements, i.e., master (or reference) clocks, transmission links, and other clocks controlled over the links. The quantitative relations between these parameters were established and illustrated by means of numerical examples based on available measured data. The examples were limited to a simple PLL control system but the analysis can eventually be applied to more sophisticated systems at the cost of increased computational effort.
A new massively parallel algorithm is presented for simulating large asymmetric circuit-switched networks, controlled by a randomized-routing policy that includes trunk-reservation. A single instruction multiple data (SIMD) implementation is described, and corresponding experiments on a 16384 processor MasPar parallel computer are reported. A multiple instruction multiple data (MIMD) implementation is also described, and corresponding experiments on an Intel IPSC/860 parallel computer, using 16 processors, are reported. By exploiting parallelism, our algorithm increases the possible execution rate of such complex simulations by as much as an order of magnitude.
In this paper, we investigate the use of Bayesian networks to construct large-scale diagnostic systems. In particular, we consider the development of large-scale Bayesian networks by composition. This compositional approach reflects how (often redundant) subsystems are architected to form systems such as electrical power systems. We develop high-level specifications, Bayesian networks, clique trees, and arithmetic circuits representing 24 different electrical power systems. The largest among these 24 Bayesian networks contains over 1,000 random variables. Another BN represents the real-world electrical power system ADAPT, which is representative of electrical power systems deployed in aerospace vehicles. In addition to demonstrating the scalability of the compositional approach, we briefly report on experimental results from the diagnostic competition DXC, where the ProADAPT team, using techniques discussed here, obtained the highest scores in both Tier 1 (among 9 international competitors) and Tier 2 (among 6 international competitors) of the industrial track. While we consider diagnosis of power systems specifically, we believe this work is relevant to other system health management problems, in particular in dependable systems such as aircraft and spacecraft. (See CASI ID 20100021910 for supplemental data disk.)
The sensitivity of searches for astrophysical transients in data from the Laser Interferometer Gravitationalwave Observatory (LIGO) is generally limited by the presence of transient, non-Gaussian noise artifacts, which occur at a high-enough rate such that accidental coincidence across multiple detectors is non-negligible. Furthermore, non-Gaussian noise artifacts typically dominate over the background contributed from stationary noise. These "glitches" can easily be confused for transient gravitational-wave signals, and their robust identification and removal will help any search for astrophysical gravitational-waves. We apply Machine Learning Algorithms (MLAs) to the problem, using data from auxiliary channels within the LIGO detectors that monitor degrees of freedom unaffected by astrophysical signals. Terrestrial noise sources may manifest characteristic disturbances in these auxiliary channels, inducing non-trivial correlations with glitches in the gravitational-wave data. The number of auxiliary-channel parameters describing these disturbances may also be extremely large; high dimensionality is an area where MLAs are particularly well-suited. We demonstrate the feasibility and applicability of three very different MLAs: Artificial Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines, and Random Forests. These classifiers identify and remove a substantial fraction of the glitches present in two very different data sets: four weeks of LIGO's fourth science run and one week of LIGO's sixth science run. We observe that all three algorithms agree on which events are glitches to within 10% for the sixth science run data, and support this by showing that the different optimization criteria used by each classifier generate the same decision surface, based on a likelihood-ratio statistic. Furthermore, we find that all classifiers obtain similar limiting performance, suggesting that most of the useful information currently contained in the auxiliary channel parameters we extract is already being used. Future performance gains are thus likely to involve additional sources of information, rather than improvements in the MLAs themselves.
Attention-related human performance limiting states (AHPLS) can cause pilots to lose airplane state awareness (ASA), and their detection is important to improving commercial aviation safety. The Commercial Aviation Safety Team found that the majority of recent international commercial aviation accidents attributable to loss of control inflight involved flight crew loss of airplane state awareness, and that distraction of various forms was involved in all of them. Research on AHPLS, including channelized attention, diverted attention, startle / surprise, and confirmation bias, has been recommended in a Safety Enhancement (SE) entitled "Training for Attention Management." To accomplish the detection of such cognitive and psychophysiological states, a broad suite of sensors has been implemented to simultaneously measure their physiological markers during high fidelity flight simulation human subject studies. Pilot participants were asked to perform benchmark tasks and experimental flight scenarios designed to induce AHPLS. Pattern classification was employed to distinguish the AHPLS induced by the benchmark tasks. Unimodal classification using pre-processed electroencephalography (EEG) signals as input features to extreme gradient boosting, random forest and deep neural network multiclass classifiers was implemented. Multi-modal classification using galvanic skin response (GSR) in addition to the same EEG signals and using the same types of classifiers produced increased accuracy with respect to the unimodal case (90 percent vs. 86 percent), although only via the deep neural network classifier. These initial results are a first step toward the goal of demonstrating simultaneous real time classification of multiple states using multiple sensing modalities in high-fidelity flight simulators. This detection is intended to support and inform training methods under development to mitigate the loss of ASA and thus reduce accidents and incidents.
It has long been known that studying connection between solar flares and properties of magnetic field in active regions is very important for understanding the flare physics and developing space weather forecasts. The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO/HMI) obtains tremendous amounts of magnetic field data products. However the operational NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) forecasts of solar flares still represent prediction probabilities issued by the experts. In this research we investigate the possibilities to enhance the daily operational flare forecasts performed at the SWPC by developing a synergy of the expert predictions and physics-based criteria, and by employing machine-learning methods. Among the physics-based criteria we consider the descriptors of the Polarity Inversion Line (PIL) and Space weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP), and derive from them daily characteristics of the entire Sun. We also consider the daily descriptors of the GOES Soft X-Ray (SXR) 1-8 Angstroms flux such as the flare history of the previous days and averaged X-Ray flux. We estimate the effectiveness in separation of flaring and non-flaring cases for each characteristic, as well as for the expert prediction probabilities, and find that some PIL, SHARP and SXR descriptors are as effective as the expert prediction probabilities and should be considered to issue the flare forecast. Finally, we train and test several Machine-Learning classification algorithms (Support Vector Classifiers with various kernel functions, k-Nearest Neighbor Classifier, Random Forest Classifier, and Neural Networks) using the most effective descriptors and expert prediction probabilities, and compare the obtained predictions with the current SWPC forecasts.
Clouds play a central role in many aspects of the climate system and their forms and shapes are remarkably diverse. Appropriate representation of clouds in climate models is a major challenge because cloud processes span at least eight orders of magnitude in spatial scales. Here we show that there exists order in cloud size distribution of low-level clouds, and that it follows a power-law distribution with exponent gamma close to 2. gamma is insensitive to yearly variations in environmental conditions, but has regional variations and land-ocean contrasts. More importantly, we demonstrate this self-organizing behavior of clouds emerges naturally from a complex network model with simple, physical organizing principles: random clumping and merging. We also demonstrate symmetry between clear and cloudy skies in terms of macroscopic organization because of similar fundamental underlying organizing principles. The order in the apparently complex cloud-clear field thus has its root in random local interactions. Studying cloud organization with complex network models is an attractive new approach that has wide applications in climate science. We also propose a concept of cloud statistic mechanics approach. This approach is fully complementary to deterministic models, and the two approaches provide a powerful framework to meet the challenge of representing clouds in our climate models when working in tandem.
A future of increased wildfires requires greater integration of spatial analysis and local knowledge of emergency responders. We examine the application of a Potential Operational Delineations (PODs) framework for strategic pre-fire planning in Marin County. PODs are spatial units for wildfire management that combine predictive modeling and local firefighter expertise to identify potential control locations as unit boundaries and assess the difficulty of suppression within units. Additionally, this project explores the integration of road networks and social vulnerability to assess environmental justice in evacuation safety. This project constitutes a novel application of the PODs framework as it integrates expertise from Marin County senior firefighters with a Fireline Location Model (FLM) to achieve POD definition and uses a Suppression Difficulty Score (SDS) to rank each POD. The FLM uses network analysis and hydrologic modeling to identify key roads and ridgelines as boundaries and combines them with expert knowledge, in the form of workshops, to construct PODs. Once identified, PODs are classified using SDS, which includes processed inputs such as LiDAR-derived aboveground biomass, ECOSTRESS Evaporative Stress Index, land use cover type from Sentinel-2 Imagery, and a digital elevation model. Environmental justice for evacuation safety incorporated three key road metrics such as connectivity, travel area, and exit capacity, the Social Vulnerability Index from the Center for Disease Control, and cell coverage to determine a final Evacuation Difficulty Score. Results indicate a strong link between road networks as primary POD boundaries, with ridgelines and waterways as secondary and tertiary locations. Specifically, we find 78.5% of expertise-identified POD boundaries align with FLM-determined boundaries. More validation is needed to support this process; however, initial results signal a feasible framework to integrate expertise and spatial analysis in local level strategic fire planning
We examine the magnetic origins of coronal heating in quiet regions by combining SOHO/EIT Fe XII coronal images and Kitt Peak magnetograms. Spatial filtering of the coronal images shows a network of enhanced structures on the scale of the magnetic network in quiet regions. Superposition of the filtered coronal images on maps of the magnetic network extracted from the magnetograms shows that the coronal network does indeed trace and stem from the magnetic network. Network coronal bright points, the brightest features in the network lanes, are found to have a highly significant (8 sigma above random chance) coincidence with polarity dividing lines (neutral lines) in the network, and are often at the feet of enhanced coronal structures that stem from the network and reach out over the cell interiors. These results indicate that, similar to the close linkage of neutral-line core fields with coronal heating in active regions, low-lying core fields encasing neutral lines in the magnetic network often drive noticeable coronal heating both within themselves (the network coronal bright points) and on more extended fields lines rooted around them. This behavior favors the possibility that active core fields in the network are the main drivers of the heating of the bulk of the quiet corona, on scales much larger than the network lanes and cells.
Distortions in truss structures can result from random errors in elemental lengths that are typical of a manufacturing process. These distortions may be minimized by an optimal selection of elements from those available for placement between the prescribed nodes -- a combinatorial optimization problem requiring significant investment of computational resource for all but the smallest problems. The present paper describes a formulation in which near-optimal element assignments are obtained as minimum energy, stable states, of an analogous Hopfield neural network. This requires mapping of the optimization problem into an energy function of the appropriate Lyapunov form. The computational architecture is ideally suited to a parallel processor implementation and offers significant savings in computational effort. A numerical implementation of the approach is discussed with reference to planar truss problems.
Distortions in truss structures can result from random errors in element lengths that are typical of a manufacturing process. These distortions may be minimized by an optimal selection of elements from those available for placement between the prescribed nodes - a combinatorial optimization problem requiring significant investment of computational resource for all but the smallest problems. The present paper describes a formulation in which near-optimal element assignments are obtained as minimum-energy stable states, of an analogous Hopfield neural network. This requires mapping of the optimization problem into an energy function of the appropriate Liapunov form. The computational architecture is ideally suited to a parallel processor implementation and offers significant savings in computational effort. A numerical implementation of the approach is discussed with reference to planar truss problems.
An application-layer protocol and a network architecture have been proposed for data communications among multiple autonomous spacecraft that are required to fly in a precise formation in order to perform scientific observations. The protocol could also be applied to other autonomous vehicles operating in formation, including robotic aircraft, robotic land vehicles, and robotic underwater vehicles. A group of spacecraft or other vehicles to which the protocol applies could be characterized as a precision-formation- flying (PFF) network, and each vehicle could be characterized as a node in the PFF network. In order to support precise formation flying, it would be necessary to establish a corresponding communication network, through which the vehicles could exchange position and orientation data and formation-control commands. The communication network must enable communication during early phases of a mission, when little positional knowledge is available. Particularly during early mission phases, the distances among vehicles may be so large that communication could be achieved only by relaying across multiple links. The large distances and need for omnidirectional coverage would limit communication links to operation at low bandwidth during these mission phases. Once the vehicles were in formation and distances were shorter, the communication network would be required to provide high-bandwidth, low-jitter service to support tight formation-control loops. The proposed protocol and architecture, intended to satisfy the aforementioned and other requirements, are based on a standard layered-reference-model concept. The proposed application protocol would be used in conjunction with conventional network, data-link, and physical-layer protocols. The proposed protocol includes the ubiquitous Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) 802.11 medium access control (MAC) protocol to be used in the datalink layer. In addition to its widespread and proven use in diverse local-area networks, this protocol offers both (1) a random- access mode needed for the early PFF deployment phase and (2) a time-bounded-services mode needed during PFF-maintenance operations. Switching between these two modes could be controlled by upper-layer entities using standard link-management mechanisms. Because the early deployment phase of a PFF mission can be expected to involve multihop relaying to achieve network connectivity (see figure), the proposed protocol includes the open shortest path first (OSPF) network protocol that is commonly used in the Internet. Each spacecraft in a PFF network would be in one of seven distinct states as the mission evolved from initial deployment, through coarse formation, and into precise formation. Reconfiguration of the formation to perform different scientific observations would also cause state changes among the network nodes. The application protocol provides for recognition and tracking of the seven states for each node and for protocol changes under specified conditions to adapt the network and satisfy communication requirements associated with the current PFF mission phase. Except during early deployment, when peer-to-peer random access discovery methods would be used, the application protocol provides for operation in a centralized manner.
Videomagnetograph observations of the weak solar magnetic fields are discussed. Intranetwork (IN) elements are found to emerge in bipolar form, but to flow in a random pattern rather than toward the network elements. Merging of IN fields is found to be more important than the ephemeral regions as a source of new network elements. Arguments for and against the hypothesis that all solar fields are intrinsically strong are considered. It is noted that reconnection and merging of magnetic fields take place continually under the conditions presently examined.
A neural network approach to the inversion of surface scattering parameters is presented. Simulated data sets based on a surface scattering model are used so that the data may be viewed as taken from a completely known randomly rough surface. The fast learning (FL) neural network and a multilayer perceptron (MLP) trained with backpropagation learning (BP network) are tested on the simulated backscattering data. The RMS error of training the FL network is found to be less than one half the error of the BP network while requiring one to two orders of magnitude less CPU time. When applied to inversion of parameters from a statistically rough surface, the FL method is successful at recovering the surface permittivity, the surface correlation length, and the RMS surface height in less time and with less error than the BP network. Further applications of the FL neural network to the inversion of parameters from backscatter measurements of an inhomogeneous layer above a half space are shown.
In the bus network problem, the goal is to generate a plan for getting from point X to point Y within a city using buses in the smallest expected time. Because bus arrival times are not determined by a fixed schedule but instead may be random. the problem requires more than standard shortest path techniques. In recent work, Datar and Ranade provide algorithms in the case where bus arrivals are assumed to be independent and exponentially distributed. We offer solutions to two important generalizations of the problem, answering open questions posed by Datar and Ranade. First, we provide a polynomial time algorithm for a much wider class of arrival distributions, namely those with increasing failure rate. This class includes not only exponential distributions but also uniform, normal, and gamma distributions. Second, in the case where bus arrival times are independent and geometric discrete random variable,. we provide an algorithm for transportation networks of buses and trains, where trains run according to a fixed schedule.
The Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI2) sensor suite collected data during entry of the Mars 2020 Perseverance rover into Mars’ atmosphere. This suite included a network of MEDLI2 Instrumented Sensor Plugs (MISPs). Each MISP was comprised of a cylinder made of Thermal Protection System (TPS) material with 1-3 embedded thermocouples (TCs), and it was flush mounted into the heatshield or backshell. Data from these in-depth TCs were used to reconstruct the aeroheating environment of the vehicle throughout entry. Surface heating was posed as an inverse problem, with the goal of estimating the surface heating by minimizing an objective function of the difference between MISP temperature measurements during flight and the temperature predictions derived from the Fully Implicit Ablation and Thermal response (FIAT) program. Given an aerothermal environment, FIAT calculates the material response and provides in-depth temperatures throughout the TPS material. To achieve the reverse, an internal tool called FIAT_Opt runs through multiple different environments until the output temperature at the TC depth closely matches the flight data. 95% confidence intervals on the reconstructed surface heating were obtained using Monte Carlo analysis, in which uncertainties in the thermocouple depth and the TPS material properties (e.g., density, thermal conductivity, heat capacity, emissivity) based on flight-lot material testing were included. A variance decomposition method using Sobol indices was employed to assess the sensitivity of the reconstructed peak heating to the TC placement and material property uncertainties. Variance decomposition was found to require tens of thousands of FIAT_Opt runs in order for the Sobol indices to converge. With a single FIAT_Opt run taking on the order of 40 minutes, the required number of computations would take months to complete, even if using multiple CPUs. To mitigate this problem, three machine learning models (ridge regression with cross-validation, random forest regression, and a deep neural network) were trained and tested using the 2000 Monte Carlo runs that were already completed. A subset of 1600 runs were used to train the model (i.e., training set), while the remaining 400 runs were used as the test set. The predictions from the deep neural network (DNN) on the test set showed nearly perfect agreement to the actual values computed with FIAT_Opt (R2 > 0.99). Using the DNN as a surrogate model, the variance decomposition using 50,000 runs was completed within minutes. The resulting Sobol indices showed that the reconstructed peak surface heating was most sensitive to the uncertainties in the thermal conductivity (ST = 0.37) and heat capacity (ST = 0.26). This method can be leveraged to provide requirements for material property measurements needed to improve the accuracy of surface heating prediction and ultimately lead to the reduction of design margins in the future. This presentation will include background on the MEDLI2 suite; the method used for inverse heating estimation; the way that material property uncertainties were accounted for using Monte Carlo analysis; a brief background on variance decomposition; the motivation for using machine learning in this context; how a neural network was trained on the data to enable variance decomposition in a fraction of the time; and the variance decomposition results for one of the MISPs.
Attention is given to a communication network consisting of an arbitrary number of nodes which can communicate with each other via a time-division multiple access (TDMA) broadcast channel. The reported investigation is concerned with the development of efficient distributed multiple access protocols for traffic consisting primarily of single packet messages in a datagram mode of operation. The motivation for the design of the protocols came from the consideration of efficient multiple access utilization of moderate to high bandwidth (4-40 Mbit/s capacity) communication satellite channels used for the transmission of short (1000-10,000 bits) fixed length packets. Under these circumstances, the ratio of roundtrip propagation time to packet transmission time is between 100 to 10,000. It is shown how a TDMA channel can be adaptively shared by datagram traffic and constant bandwidth users such as in digital voice applications. The distributed reservation control protocols described are a hybrid between contention and reservation protocols.