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The Myth of Fungible FTE: A Quantitative Assessment of Matrixed Resource Allocation

Matrix organizations allow scientific facilities to share specialized personnel across projects, operations, maintenance, and strategic initiatives. Nominal staffing allocations, however, may not capture the schedule consequences of fragmented individual commitments, limited access to specialist groups, and intermittent availability of key decision makers. We developed a stochas- tic, daily-time-step simulation of a hypothetical medium-sized accelerator-facility project com- prising sequential phases and parallel tasks. Each task requires role-specific work measured in FTE-days. Ordinary personnel may be unavailable because they contribute concurrently to other institutional activities, while designated key roles have independently specified daily un- availability probabilities. An organization-wide priority factor scales the number of people from each functional group who can effectively contribute to the project. It is interpreted as a composite proxy for project access and workforce fragmentation across competing commit- ments. We examined project completion time as a function of this factor and Project Lead unavailability using 100 Monte Carlo runs per condition. Increasing priority factor from 0.1 to 1.0 reduced median completion time from 1708.5 days (interquartile range 1681.5–1735.25) to 390 days (interquartile range 379–399). At priority factor = 0.1, increasing Project Lead unavailability from 0.5 to 0.9 increased median completion time from 1713.5 days (interquartile range 1691–1733.25) to 4,417 days (interquartile range 4271.75–4550.5). The model quantifies the commonly expected sensitivity of project schedules to fragmented resource commitments and limited coordination availability. Within this model, the results also indicate a possible threshold regime in which small increases in workforce availability yield only modest sched- ule improvements until sufficient capacity becomes accessible, after which project performance improves sharply. With further validation and calibration, this quantitative framework could support resource-allocation decisions during initial project planning and subsequent schedule rebaselining.

Bai, Mei [SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory (SL

An Application of the Difference Potentials Method to Solving External Problems in CFD

Numerical solution of infinite-domain boundary-value problems requires some special techniques that would make the problem available for treatment on the computer. Indeed, the problem must be discretized in a way that the computer operates with only finite amount of information. Therefore, the original infinite-domain formulation must be altered and/or augmented so that on one hand the solution is not changed (or changed slightly) and on the other hand the finite discrete formulation becomes available. One widely used approach to constructing such discretizations consists of truncating the unbounded original domain and then setting the artificial boundary conditions (ABC's) at the newly formed external boundary. The role of the ABC's is to close the truncated problem and at the same time to ensure that the solution found inside the finite computational domain would be maximally close to (in the ideal case, exactly the same as) the corresponding fragment of the original infinite-domain solution. Let us emphasize that the proper treatment of artificial boundaries may have a profound impact on the overall quality and performance of numerical algorithms. The latter statement is corroborated by the numerous computational experiments and especially concerns the area of CFD, in which external problems present a wide class of practically important formulations. In this paper, we review some work that has been done over the recent years on constructing highly accurate nonlocal ABC's for calculation of compressible external flows. The approach is based on implementation of the generalized potentials and pseudodifferential boundary projection operators analogous to those proposed first by Calderon. The difference potentials method (DPM) by Ryaben'kii is used for the effective computation of the generalized potentials and projections. The resulting ABC's clearly outperform the existing methods from the standpoints of accuracy and robustness, in many cases noticeably speed up the multigrid convergence, and at the same time are quite comparable to other methods from the standpoints of geometric universality and simplicity of implementation.

Ryaben 'Kii, Victor S.

Totally parallel multilevel algorithms for sparse elliptic systems

The fastest known algorithms for the solution of a large elliptic boundary value problem on a massively parallel hypercube all require O(log(n)) floating point operations and O(log(n)) distance-1 communications, if massively parallel is defined to mean a number of processors proportional to the size n of the problem. The Totally Parallel Multilevel Algorithm (TPMA) that has, as special cases, four of these fast algorithms is described. These four algorithms are Parallel Superconvergent Multigrid (PSMG), Robust Multigrid, the Fast Fourier Transformation (FFT) based Spectral Algorithm, and Parallel Cyclic Reduction. The algorithm TPMA, when described recursively, has four steps: (1) project to a collection of interlaced, coarser problems at the next lower level; (2) apply TPMA, recursively, to each of these lower level problems, solving directly at the lowest level; (3) interpolate these approximate solutions to the finer grid, and to verage them to form an approximate solution on this grid; and (4) refine this approximate solution with a defect-correction step, using a local approximate inverse. Choice of the projection operator (P), the interpolation operator (Q), and the smoother (S) determines the class of problems on which TPMA is most effective. There are special cases in which the first three steps produce an exact solution, and the smoother is not needed (e.g., constant coefficient operators).

Frederickson, Paul O.

ANS Winter 2024 Summary: MCCAFE: The Monte Carlo Constructor for ATR Fuel Elements

The Irradiation Experiment Neutronics Analysis Department at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has implemented a new analysis workflow for experiments in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR). One key piece of this workflow is the Monte Carlo Constructor for ATR Fuel Elements, or MCCAFE. For each ATR operating cycle, the Reactor and Nuclear Safety Engineering (RNSE) Department first solves the core in eigenvalue mode and depletes the driver fuel materials. In a separate calculation, neutronics analysts model and deplete the materials of one or more irradiation experiments, usually in a series of fixed-source Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) models of the ATR for neutron transport calculations. It was desirable to use the results of the former calculations to inform the models of the latter. MCCAFE is a Python program developed using American Society of Mechanical Engineers Nuclear Quality Assurance-1 procedures at INL. Its purpose is to take the calculated results from the RNSE depletion solutions and the measured or projected operating parameters from the Nuclear Data Management and Analysis System (NDMAS) to generate fixed-source models of the ATR core at given points in time across one or more cycles.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS

Geometric Interpretation of the Cluster Location Problem Part I: Theory

We present a new framing of the seismic location problem using principles drawn from differential geometry. Our interpretation relies upon the common assumption that travel times observed across a network are continuous, differentiable functions of source location. In consequence, travel‐time functions constitute a differentiable map between the source region and a Riemannian manifold. The manifold is said to be the image of the source region embedded in a generally high‐dimension travel‐time vector space. A cluster of events in the source region has an image of discrete points on the manifold, that, except in the simplest cases, cannot be viewed directly. However, it is possible to project the image of a cluster into a tangent space of the manifold for direct visualization. The projection operator can be computed directly from the data without a velocity model, but produces a distorted rendering of the cluster geometry. With a model we can predict the distortions and correct them to estimate cluster geometry. We develop these points with the simplest possible example, one for which direct visualization of the manifold is possible, using the example as an introduction to the relevant concepts from differential geometry in a familiar setting. The tangent space, a local linearization of the manifold, plays a key role. We develop a metric to estimate the limits of linearization, that is, to determine when the curvature of the manifold invalidates the linear assumption. We also examine the interplay of model error, inadequate network geometry, and pick error. We then generalize our results from the simple case to the general case of 3D source regions observed by general networks. Although we do suggest a new “project and correct” method for location, we do not develop it into a practical algorithm. In conclusion, our intention rather is to highlight new analytical methods grounded in differential geometry.

East Pacific Ocean Islands

A cloud, precipitation and electrification modeling effort for COHMEX

In mid-1987, the Modeling Group of the Institute of Atmospheric Sciences (IAS) began to simulate and analyze cloud runs that were made during the Cooperative Huntsville Meteorological Experiment (COHMEX) Project and later. The cloud model was run nearly every day during the summer 1986 COHMEX Project. The Modeling Group was then funded to analyze the results, make further modeling tests, and help explain the precipitation processes in the Southeastern United States. The main science objectives of COHMEX were: (1) to observe the prestorm environment and understand the physical mechanisms leading to the formation of small convective systems and processes controlling the production of precipitation; (2) to describe the structure of small convective systems producing precipitation including the large and small scale events in the environment surrounding the developing and mature convective system; (3) to understand the interrelationships between electrical activity within the convective system and the process of precipitation; and (4) to develop and test numerical models describing the boundary layer, tropospheric, and cloud scale thermodynamics and dynamics associated with small convective systems. The latter three of these objectives were addressed by the modeling activities of the IAS. A series of cloud modes were used to simulate the clouds that formed during the operational project. The primary models used to date on the project were a two dimensional bulk water model, a two dimensional electrical model, and to a lesser extent, a two dimensional detailed microphysical cloud model. All of the models are based on fully interacting microphysics, dynamics, thermodynamics, and electrical equations. Only the 20 July 1986 case was analyzed in detail, although all of the cases run during the summer were analyzed as to how well they did in predicting the characteristics of the convection for that day.

Orville, Harold D.

Operations planning and analysis handbook for NASA/MSFC phase B development projects

Current operations planning and analysis practices on NASA/MSFC Phase B projects were investigated with the objectives of (1) formalizing these practices into a handbook and (2) suggesting improvements. The study focused on how Science and Engineering (S&E) Operational Personnel support Program Development (PD) Task Teams. The intimate relationship between systems engineering and operations analysis was examined. Methods identified for use by operations analysts during Phase B include functional analysis, interface analysis methods to calculate/allocate such criteria as reliability, Maintainability, and operations and support cost.

Batson, Robert C.

A Scalable Reduced‐Order Model for the Steady Navier–Stokes Equations

Scaling up new scientific technologies from laboratory to industry often involves demonstrating performance on a larger scale. Computer simulations can accelerate design and predictions in the deployment process, though traditional numerical methods are computationally intractable even for intermediate pilot plant scales. Recently, the component reduced order modeling method has been developed to tackle this challenge by combining projection reduced order modeling and discontinuous Galerkin domain decomposition. However, while many scientific or engineering applications involve nonlinear physics, this method has only been demonstrated for various linear systems. In this work, the component reduced order modeling method is extended to steady Navier–Stokes flow, with application to general nonlinear physics in view. The large‐scale, global domain is decomposed into a combination of small‐scale unit component. Linear subspaces for flow velocity and pressure are identified via proper orthogonal decomposition over sample snapshots collected from each small‐scale unit component. Velocity bases are augmented with a pressure supremizer to satisfy the inf–sup condition for stable pressure prediction. Two different nonlinear reduced order modeling methods are employed and compared for efficient evaluation of nonlinear advection: A third‐order tensor projection operator and the empirical quadrature procedure. The proposed method is demonstrated on the flow over arrays of five different unit objects, achieving a 23‐fold speedup with less than 4% relative error in domains up to 256 times larger than the unit components. Furthermore, a numerical experiment with the pressure supremizer strongly indicates the need for a supremizer for stable pressure prediction. A comparison between the tensorial approach and the empirical quadrature procedure revealed a slight advantage of the empirical quadrature procedure. The framework is compared with an alternating Schwarz‐based reduced‐order approach, demonstrating improved efficiency and robustness for the DG‐based global solver while retaining flexibility for sub‐scale iterative solvers. The method is further extended to a coupled advection–diffusion and Navier–Stokes system, illustrating its applicability to multi‐physics problems and its potential for more general, inter‐coupled nonlinear systems.

42 ENGINEERING

An Integrated Paradigm for the Management of Delivery Risk in Electricity Markets: From Batteries to Insurance and Beyond

If power systems transition to integrate higher amounts of variable renewable energy sources, storage technologies, and distributed energy resources (DERs), new risk management frameworks are necessary to ensure cost-effective and reliable power system operations. Projects funded by the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) Performance-based Energy Resource Feedback, Optimization, and Risk Management (PERFORM) program aim to contribute new risk management frameworks by developing methods to quantify and manage risk at grid asset and system levels. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) led a PERFORM project in collaboration with the Johns Hopkins University, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), kWh Analytics, Packetized Energy, and Imperial Consultants (ICON). The project addressed two challenges related to risk management in electricity markets: managing net load imbalances and flexibility from DERs. This final technical report presents a list of project accomplishments, activities, and outputs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Workflow for Process Automation of Soil Gas Results from an Automated Soil Gas-Sampling System for Application in Carbon Storage Projects

Conference presentation at Geoconvention, Calgary, Alberta, Canada, May 12–14, 2025. The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) developed an automated workflow for processing soil gas measurements collected from the automated soil gas-sampling systems deployed across the project site. Raw soil gas measurements are collected from each station every 4 hours and automatically uploaded to a cloud database. The workflow begins by writing code to download the data to a workstation automatically, then the data are published to an online dashboard that visualizes the measurements in time-series plots and a process-based decision-making framework. This automated workflow accelerates the time from data acquisition to decision-making. It supports carbon storage project operators by preparing and delivering a live, standardized dataset for quick analysis and source attribution to provide assurance of containment and overall permit compliance.

02 PETROLEUM

Derivation of a matrix identity.

Matrix identity associated with linear digital filtering and recursive estimating determined using matrix projection operators and properties

Hemami, H.

Hypersonic transports: Economics and environmental effects

An economic analysis of hypersonic transports is presented to show projected operating costs (direct and indirect) and return on investment. Important assumptions are varied to determine the probable range of values for operating costs and return on investment. The environmental effects of hypersonic transports are discussed and compared to current supersonic transports. Estimates of sideline and fly-over noise are made for a typical hypersonic transport, and the sonic boom problem is analyzed and discussed. Since the exhaust products from liquid hydrogen-fueled engines differ from those of kerosene-fueled aircraft, a qualitative assessment of air pollution effects is made.

Petersen, R. H.

Hypersonic transports - Economics and environmental effects.

An economic analysis of hypersonic transports is presented to show projected operating costs (direct and indirect) and return on investment. Important assumptions are varied to determine the probable range of values for operating costs and return on investment. The environmental effects of hypersonic transports are discussed and compared to current supersonic transports. Estimates of sideline and flyover noise are made for a typical hypersonic transport, and the sonic boom problem is analyzed and discussed. Since the exhaust products from liquid hydrogen-fueled engines differ from those of kerosene-fueled aircraft, a qualitative assessment of air pollution effects is made.

Petersen, R. H.

Noncommuting observables in quantum detection and estimation theory

Basing decisions and estimates on simultaneous approximate measurements of noncommuting observables in a quantum receiver is shown to be equivalent to measuring commuting projection operators on a larger Hilbert space than that of the receiver itself. The quantum-mechanical Cramer-Rao inequalities derived from right logarithmic derivatives and symmetrized logarithmic derivatives of the density operator are compared, and it is shown that the latter give superior lower bounds on the error variances of individual unbiased estimates of arrival time and carrier frequency of a coherent signal. For a suitably weighted sum of the error variances of simultaneous estimates of these, the former yield the superior lower bound under some conditions.

Helstrom, C. W.