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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2006

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA): A Practical and Cost Effective Approach

The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) is the first mission of the Robotic Lunar Exploration Program (RLEP), a space exploration venture to the Moon, Mars and beyond. The LRO mission includes spacecraft developed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and seven instruments built by GSFC, Russia, and contractors across the nation. LRO is defined as a measurement mission, not a science mission. It emphasizes the overall objectives of obtaining data to facilitate returning mankind safely to the Moon in preparation for an eventual manned mission to Mars. As the first mission in response to the President's commitment of the journey of exploring the solar system and beyond: returning to the Moon in the next decade, then venturing further into the solar system, ultimately sending humans to Mars and beyond, LRO has high-visibility to the public but limited resources and a tight schedule. This paper demonstrates how NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Mission project office incorporated reliability analyses in assessing risks and performing design tradeoffs to ensure mission success. Risk assessment is performed using NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) 8705.5 - Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects to formulate probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). As required, a limited scope PRA is being performed for the LRO project. The PRA is used to optimize the mission design within mandated budget, manpower, and schedule constraints. The technique that LRO project office uses to perform PRA relies on the application of a component failure database to quantify the potential mission success risks. To ensure mission success in an efficient manner, low cost and tight schedule, the traditional reliability analyses, such as reliability predictions, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), are used to perform PRA for the large system of LRO with more than 14,000 piece parts and over 120 purchased or contractor built components.

Lee, Lydia L.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Modeling to Improve the Risk Reduction Process for Command File Errors

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory has learned that even innocuous errors in the spacecraft command process can have significantly detrimental effects on a space mission. Consequently, such Command File Errors (CFE), regardless of their effect on the spacecraft, are treated as significant events for which a root cause is identified and corrected. A CFE during space mission operations is often the symptom of imbalance or inadequacy within the system that encompasses the hardware and software used for command generation as well as the human experts and processes involved in this endeavor. As we move into an era of increased collaboration with other NASA centers and commercial partners, these systems become more and more complex. Consequently, the ability to thoroughly model and analyze CFEs formally in order to reduce the risk they pose is increasingly important. In this paper, we summarize the results of applying modeling techniques previously developed to the DAWN flight project. The original models were built with the input of subject matter experts from several flight projects. We have now customized these models to address specific questions for the DAWN flight project and formulating use cases to address their unique mission needs. The goal of this effort is to enhance the project's ability to meet commanding reliability requirements for operations and to assist them in managing their Command File Errors.

spacecraft↗

NASA NTRS2002

[Earth and Space Sciences Project Services for NASA HPCC]

This grant supported the effort to characterize the problem domain of the Earth Science Technology Office's Computational Technologies Project, to engage the Beowulf Cluster Computing Community as well as the High Performance Computing Research Community so that we can predict the applicability of said technologies to the scientific community represented by the CT project and formulate long term strategies to provide the computational resources necessary to attain the anticipated scientific objectives of the CT project. Specifically, the goal of the evaluation effort is to use the information gathered over the course of the Round-3 investigations to quantify the trends in scientific expectations, the algorithmic requirements and capabilities of high-performance computers to satisfy this anticipated need.

Merkey, Phillip↗

NASA NTRS2005

[Earth Science Technology Office's Computational Technologies Project]

Fischer, James↗

DOE OSTI2026

Colorado (Pueblo) Regional DAC Hub TA-1: Feasibility (Phase 0a) (Final Technical Report)

This project supports the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) mission to reduce the environmental and climate impacts of fossil fuels and industrial processes, contributing to the goal of achieving net-zero emissions across the U.S. economy. The primary objective is to conduct a feasibility study for a Regional Direct Air Capture (DAC) Hub in the Southern Colorado region, northeast of Pueblo. The geographic construct of this hub is based on the Denver-Julesburg Basin – a geological area where a significant number of geological storage studies have been conducted (See Figure 1). The project will leverage the work of Project Eos, a CarbonSAFE Phase III study led by the Colorado School of Mines and CarbonAmerica. The DAC Hub aims to capture, store, and/or utilize at least 1,000,000 tonnes of CO 2 from the atmosphere annually. To achieve this, the project team is designing a system with an initial capacity of 100,000 tonnes per year. This feasibility-stage project will formulate the Regional DAC Hub concept and team to conduct the relevant analysis, networking and community stakeholder engagement necessary to advance the project to the design stage.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1986

Spaceborne Imaging Radar Project

In June of 1985 the Project Initiation Agreement was signed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the NASA Office of Space Science and Applications for the Spaceborne Imaging Radar Project (SIR). The thrust of the Spaceborne Imaging Radar Project is to continue the evolution of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) science and technology developed during SEASAT, SIR-A and SIR-B missions to meet the needs of the Earth Observing System (EOS) in the mid 1990's. As originally formulated, the Project plans were for a reflight of the SIR-B in 1987, the development of a new SAR, SIR-C, for missions in mid 1989 and early 1990, and the upgrade of SIR-C to EOS configuration with a qualification flight aboard the shuttle in the 1993 time frame (SIR-D). However, the loss of the shuttle Challenger has delayed the first manifest for SIR to early 1990. This delay prompted the decision to drop SIR-B reflight plans and move ahead with SIR-C to more effectively utilize this first mission opportunity. The planning for this project is discussed.

Herman, Neil↗

NASA NTRS2004

Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology Project Integrated Into NASA's Vehicle Systems Program

The Ultra-Efficient Engine Technology (UEET) Project is formulated according to the Office of Aerospace Technology's objectives as outlined in the NASA Strategic Plan. It is directly related to the "protect the environment" objective and will make progress toward the "increase mobility" and "support national security" objectives as well. UEET technologies will impact future civil and military aircraft and will benefit the development of future space transportation propulsion systems. UEET Project success will, therefore, depend on developing revolutionary, but affordable, technology solutions that are inherently safe and reliable and thus can be incorporated in future propulsion system designs. In fiscal year 2003, UEET became part of NASA's Vehicle Systems Program and continues to evolve its programmatic role. The Vehicle Systems Program aims to develop breakthrough technologies and methodologies, push the boundaries of flight through research on advanced vehicle concepts, respond quickly to industry and the Department of Defense on critical safety and other issues, and provide facilities and expert consultation for industry and other Government agencies during product development.

Shaw, Robert J.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Overview of Proposal on High Resolution Climate Model Simulations of Recent Hurricane and Typhoon Activity: The Impact of SSTs and the Madden Julian Oscillation

This talk gives an update on the progress and further plans for a coordinated project to carry out and analyze high-resolution simulations of tropical storm activity with a number of state-of-the-art global climate models. Issues addressed include, the mechanisms by which SSTs control tropical storm. activity on inter-annual and longer time scales, the modulation of that activity by the Madden Julian Oscillation on sub-seasonal time scales, as well as the sensitivity of the results to model formulation. The project also encourages companion coarser resolution runs to help assess resolution dependence, and. the ability of the models to capture the large-scale and long-terra changes in the parameters important for hurricane development. Addressing the above science questions is critical to understanding the nature of the variability of the Asian-Australian monsoon and its regional impacts, and thus CLIVAR RAMP fully endorses the proposed tropical storm simulation activity. The project is open to all interested organizations and investigators, and the results from the runs will be shared among the participants, as well as made available to the broader scientific community for analysis.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Summary of the NASA Design Environment for Novel Vertical Lift Vehicles (DELIVER) Project

The number of new markets and use cases being developed for vertical take-off and landing vehicles continues to explode, including the highly publicized urban air taxi and package deliver applications. There is an equally exploding variety of novel vehicle configurations and sizes that are being proposed to fill these new market applications. The challenge for vehicle designers is that there is currently no easy and consistent way to go from a compelling mission or use case to a vehicle that is best configured and sized for the particular mission. This is because the availability of accurate and validated conceptual design tools for these novel types and sizes of vehicles have not kept pace with the new markets and vehicles themselves. The Design Environment for Novel Vertical Lift Vehicles (DELIVER) project was formulated to address this vehicle design challenge by demonstrating the use of current conceptual design tools, that have been used for decades to design and size conventional rotorcraft, applied to these novel vehicle types, configurations and sizes. In addition to demonstrating the applicability of current design and sizing tools to novel vehicle configurations and sizes, DELIVER also demonstrated the addition of key transformational technologies of noise, autonomy, and hybrid-electric and all-electric propulsion into the vehicle conceptual design process. Noise is key for community acceptance, autonomy and the need to operate autonomously are key for efficient, reliable and safe operations, and electrification of the propulsion system is a key enabler for these new vehicle types and sizes. This paper provides a summary of the DELIVER project and shows the applicability of current conceptual design and sizing tools novel vehicle configurations and sizes that are being proposed for urban air taxi and package delivery type applications.

Design Environment↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data assimilation in operator algebras

We develop an algebraic framework for sequential data assimilation of partially observed dynamical systems. In this framework, Bayesian data assimilation is embedded in a nonabelian operator algebra, which provides a representation of observables by multiplication operators and probability densities by density operators (quantum states). In the algebraic approach, the forecast step of data assimilation is represented by a quantum operation induced by the Koopman operator of the dynamical system. Moreover, the analysis step is described by a quantum effect, which generalizes the Bayesian observational update rule. Projecting this formulation to finite-dimensional matrix algebras leads to computational schemes that are i) automatically positivity-preserving and ii) amenable to consistent data-driven approximation using kernel methods for machine learning. Moreover, these methods are natural candidates for implementation on quantum computers. Applications to the Lorenz 96 multiscale system and the El Niño Southern Oscillation in a climate model show promising results in terms of forecast skill and uncertainty quantification.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Inverse Reinforcement Learning based Bayesian Goal Inference Method for Early Nuclear Proliferation Detection

Traditional methods for detection of nuclear proliferation indicators are usually applied after nuclear proliferation has already occurred. There is a need to advance these methods to perform early detection of nuclear proliferation indicators. In this project, we formulated an early detection problem as a sequential, decision-making, goal inference problem based on research publications of authors, to determine whether it is possible to infer whether an author will publish on a research activity before it has occurred. To develop and test our approach, we selected a civil nuclear activity for our case study. We constructed a state-action-state transition graph from publications of authors associated with the activity and the co-authors of their publications, using titles, abstracts, and author publication sequences. We then used inverse reinforcement learning to model the goal-directed behavior of authors in trajectories that terminate at selected goal states. Using a Bayesian formulation, we computed the probability that authors would reach each selected state from partially observed trajectories of their state transitions in their research topic space. The state with the highest probability was selected as the most probable goal state. Based on our results, we found that 60% of the times we can infer the correct goal state early; sometimes the inference is either delayed, or multiple states could be inferred as goal states. Overall, our results show that it is possible to perform early detection of research activities of authors in a nuclear technology area. Further research is necessary to establish a more accurate understanding of how topic modeling, topic space grid discretization, and the extent of overlap among trajectories of different goal states, affect the goal inference results. The methods developed in this work may be used to enhance data-driven methods for early detection of nuclear proliferation indicators.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Organisation of Diverse Mechanisms of Secondary Ice Production among Basic Convective and Stratiform Cloud-types

This 3-year DoE-funded joint project had the over-arching aim of understanding how ice is initiated in clouds of various types. Focus was given to processes of fragmentation of pre-existing ice, which can occur in positive feedback loops (‘ice multiplication’). A basic question to address was which fragmentation processes prevail in which basic cloud-types. The approach was to use cloud models and field observations, while pioneering our own lab observations of ice initiation to break the deadlock from the past lack of lab observations. Historically, the tendency of the cloud physics community to avoid doing lab observations has allowed a vast gap in knowledge about ice initiation to persist for decades. During the first part of the project, new formulations were created to treat two overlooked types of fragmentation of ice. First, sublimational breakup of ice was treated based on a theoretical formula that we fitted to a pooled dataset of lab observations published previously in the literature. Second, a new mode of fragmentation of freezing raindrops was treated, which involves a supercooled drop being hit by a more massive ice particle. Some of the secondary droplets from the impact freeze. This work was done at Manchester University by Co-I Connolly. Then during the second part, both formulations were implemented in our ‘aerosol-cloud model’ (AC). AC has a hybrid bin/bulk microphysics scheme, and now represents four processes of SIP. The accuracy of AC was evaluated for four cases typifying four basic cloud-types: slightly cold-based stratiform cloud and cold-, warm- and very warm-based convective clouds. We discovered that the warmth of cloud-base, especially in the tropics, promotes SIP processes of raindrop-freezing fragmentation and rime-splintering, and surprisingly, sublimational breakup too. It was found that breakup in ice-ice collisions is ubiquitous. Finally, a portable laboratory chamber was constructed at Lund and deployed in northern Sweden to observe breakup in graupel-snow collisions outdoors. This was seen to be even more prolific than treated in our 2018 formulation. Papers describing results are either published or soon to be published.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A two-dimensional Riemann solver with self-similar sub-structure – Alternative formulation based on least squares projection

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Dinshaw S. Balsara↗

NASA NTRS1974

Feshbach resonances in positron-hydrogen scattering

Using a wave function including the 1s-2s-2p eigenstates of hydrogen and the 1s ground state of positronium, we have calculated the position and width of the lowest Feshbach resonance in the e(+)-H system, which lies between the positronium rearrangement threshold and the n=2 hydrogen threshold. The method differs from the usual close-coupling method, resembling in its formulation the projection operator technique, although orthogonality of closed-channel and open-channel functions is not demanded. The resonance lies 9.8281 eV above the ground state of hydrogen and has width of 0.029 eV in this approximation.

Drachman, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The development of STS payload environmental engineering standards

The presently reported effort to provide a single set of standards for the design, analysis and testing of Space Transportation System (STS) payloads throughout the NASA organization must be viewed as essentially experimental, since the concept of incorporating the diverse opinions and experiences of several separate field research centers may in retrospect be judged too ambitious or perhaps even naive. While each STS payload may have unique characteristics, and the project should formulate its own criteria for environmental design, testing and evaluation, a reference source document providing coordinated standards is expected to minimize the duplication of effort and limit random divergence of practices among the various NASA payload programs. These standards would provide useful information to all potential STS users, and offer a degree of standardization to STS users outside the NASA organization.

Bangs, W. F.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Globally convergent techniques in nonlinear Newton-Krylov

Some convergence theory is presented for nonlinear Krylov subspace methods. The basic idea of these methods is to use variants of Newton's iteration in conjunction with a Krylov subspace method for solving the Jacobian linear systems. These methods are variants of inexact Newton methods where the approximate Newton direction is taken from a subspace of small dimensions. The main focus is to analyze these methods when they are combined with global strategies such as linesearch techniques and model trust region algorithms. Most of the convergence results are formulated for projection onto general subspaces rather than just Krylov subspaces.

Brown, Peter N.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A study of mass data storage technology for rocket engine data

The results of a nine month study program on mass data storage technology for rocket engine (especially the Space Shuttle Main Engine) health monitoring and control are summarized. The program had the objective of recommending a candidate mass data storage technology development for rocket engine health monitoring and control and of formulating a project plan and specification for that technology development. The work was divided into three major technical tasks: (1) development of requirements; (2) survey of mass data storage technologies; and (3) definition of a project plan and specification for technology development. The first of these tasks reviewed current data storage technology and developed a prioritized set of requirements for the health monitoring and control applications. The second task included a survey of state-of-the-art and newly developing technologies and a matrix-based ranking of the technologies. It culminated in a recommendation of optical disk technology as the best candidate for technology development. The final task defined a proof-of-concept demonstration, including tasks required to develop, test, analyze, and demonstrate the technology advancement, plus an estimate of the level of effort required. The recommended demonstration emphasizes development of an optical disk system which incorporates an order-of-magnitude increase in writing speed above the current state of the art.

Ready, John F.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Stratospheric Heterogeneous Chemistry and Microphysics: Model Development, Validation and Applications

The objectives of this project are to: define the chemical and physical processes leading to stratospheric ozone change that involve polar stratospheric clouds (PSCS) and the reactions occurring on the surfaces of PSC particles; study the formation processes, and the physical and chemical properties of PSCS, that are relevant to atmospheric chemistry and to the interpretation of field measurements taken during polar stratosphere missions; develop quantitative models describing PSC microphysics and heterogeneous chemical processes; assimilate laboratory and field data into these models; and calculate the extent of chemical processing on PSCs and the impact of specific microphysical processes on polar composition and ozone depletion. During the course of the project, a new coupled microphysics/physical-chemistry/ photochemistry model for stratospheric sulfate aerosols and nitric acid and ice PSCs was developed and applied to analyze data collected during NASA's Arctic Airborne Stratospheric Expedition-II (AASE-II) and other missions. In this model, detailed treatments of multicomponent sulfate aerosol physical chemistry, sulfate aerosol microphysics, polar stratospheric cloud microphysics, PSC ice surface chemistry, as well as homogeneous gas-phase chemistry were included for the first time. In recent studies focusing on AASE measurements, the PSC model was used to analyze specific measurements from an aircraft deployment of an aerosol impactor, FSSP, and NO(y) detector. The calculated results are in excellent agreement with observations for particle volumes as well as NO(y) concentrations, thus confirming the importance of supercooled sulfate/nitrate droplets in PSC formation. The same model has been applied to perform a statistical study of PSC properties in the Northern Hemisphere using several hundred high-latitude air parcel trajectories obtained from Goddard. The rates of ozone depletion along trajectories with different meteorological histories are presently being systematically evaluated to identify the principal relationships between ozone loss and aerosol state. Under this project, we formulated a detailed quantitative model that predicts the multicomponent composition of sulfate aerosols under stratospheric conditions, including sulfuric, nitric, hydrochloric, hydrofluoric and hydrobromic acids. This work defined for the first time the behavior of liquid ternary-system type-1b PSCS. The model also allows the compositions and reactivities of sulfate aerosols to be calculated over the entire range of environmental conditions encountered in the stratosphere (and has been incorporated into a trajectory/microphysics model-see above). Important conclusions that derived from this work over the last few years include the following: the HNO3 content of liquid-state aerosols dominate PSCs below about 195 K; the freezing of nitric acid ice from sulfate aerosol solutions is likely to occur within a few degrees K of the water vapor frost point; the uptake and reactions of HCl in liquid aerosols is a critical component of PSC heterogeneous chemistry. In a related application of this work, the inefficiency of chlorine injection into the stratosphere during major volcanic eruptions was explained on the basis of nucleation of sulfuric acid aerosols in rising volcanic plumes leading to the formation of supercooled water droplets on these aerosols, which efficiently scavenges HCl via precipitation.

Turco, Richard P.↗