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Probabilisitc Geobiological Classification Using Elemental Abundance Distributions and Lossless Image Compression in Recent and Modern Organisms

Last year we presented techniques for the detection of fossils during robotic missions to Mars using both structural and chemical signatures[Storrie-Lombardi and Hoover, 2004]. Analyses included lossless compression of photographic images to estimate the relative complexity of a putative fossil compared to the rock matrix [Corsetti and Storrie-Lombardi, 2003] and elemental abundance distributions to provide mineralogical classification of the rock matrix [Storrie-Lombardi and Fisk, 2004]. We presented a classification strategy employing two exploratory classification algorithms (Principal Component Analysis and Hierarchical Cluster Analysis) and non-linear stochastic neural network to produce a Bayesian estimate of classification accuracy. We now present an extension of our previous experiments exploring putative fossil forms morphologically resembling cyanobacteria discovered in the Orgueil meteorite. Elemental abundances (C6, N7, O8, Na11, Mg12, Ai13, Si14, P15, S16, Cl17, K19, Ca20, Fe26) obtained for both extant cyanobacteria and fossil trilobites produce signatures readily distinguishing them from meteorite targets. When compared to elemental abundance signatures for extant cyanobacteria Orgueil structures exhibit decreased abundances for C6, N7, Na11, All3, P15, Cl17, K19, Ca20 and increases in Mg12, S16, Fe26. Diatoms and silicified portions of cyanobacterial sheaths exhibiting high levels of silicon and correspondingly low levels of carbon cluster more closely with terrestrial fossils than with extant cyanobacteria. Compression indices verify that variations in random and redundant textural patterns between perceived forms and the background matrix contribute significantly to morphological visual identification. The results provide a quantitative probabilistic methodology for discriminating putatitive fossils from the surrounding rock matrix and &om extant organisms using both structural and chemical information. The techniques described appear applicable to the geobiological analysis of meteoritic samples or in situ exploration of the Mars regolith. Keywords: cyanobacteria, microfossils, Mars, elemental abundances, complexity analysis, multifactor analysis, principal component analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis, artificial neural networks, paleo-biosignatures

Storrie-Lombardi, Michael C.

NASA Instrument Cost/Schedule Model

NASA's Office of Independent Program and Cost Evaluation (IPCE) has established a number of initiatives to improve its cost and schedule estimating capabilities. 12One of these initiatives has resulted in the JPL developed NASA Instrument Cost Model. NICM is a cost and schedule estimator that contains: A system level cost estimation tool; a subsystem level cost estimation tool; a database of cost and technical parameters of over 140 previously flown remote sensing and in-situ instruments; a schedule estimator; a set of rules to estimate cost and schedule by life cycle phases (B/C/D); and a novel tool for developing joint probability distributions for cost and schedule risk (Joint Confidence Level (JCL)). This paper describes the development and use of NICM, including the data normalization processes, data mining methods (cluster analysis, principal components analysis, regression analysis and bootstrap cross validation), the estimating equations themselves and a demonstration of the NICM tool suite.

JCL

MSL Telecom Automated Anomaly Detection

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Telecom Operations Team at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has implemented a machine learning system in order to automate the anomaly detection process as a part of daily operations. Machine learning enables reliable detection of anomalies in Telecom-related telemetry and automated reporting of Telecom subsystem status, resulting in an 90% reduction in team workload and improved anomaly detection reliability. At present, machine learning methods are used to detect: 1. Anomalous long-term trends in telemetry data 2. Anomalous time-domain evolution of telemetry values Both types of anomalies pose their own unique challenges that are addressed in different ways. In the first case, long term trending of daily minima, maximum, and mean telemetry values in temperatures, currents, voltages, and radio frequency (RF) power levels is used in addition to hard threshold safety checks to look for changes in long-term equipment health and performance. Long-term trending methods allow for ordinary seasonal variations in these quantities caused by temperature changes over the course of the Martian year while allowing operators to determine whether current performance remains in line with historical values from previous years. Changes in long-term trends can provide important insights into the health and status of the rover's on-board systems as well as valuable early warning if subtle degradation begins to take hold. But while trending of daily statistics is valuable, it does not detect anomalies in the short-term time evolution of data over the course of minutes or hours during a day, and this task is handled with short-term shape analysis. Principal components analysis (PCA) has been found to provide robust detection of short-term anomalies, and several examples of the use of PCA to detect actual anomalous events will be provided here. In using PCA, we use both the percentage of explained variance and also a log likelihood test on the PCA expansion coefficients to flag telemetry data for human review. Previous work in the field of spacecraft anomaly detection includes [1] for MSL and [2] for some other JPL missions.

Mukai, Ryan

Preliminary Comparisons of the Information Content and Utility of TM Versus MSS Data

Comparisons were made between subscenes from the first TM scene acquired of the Washington, D.C. area and a MSS scene acquired approximately one year earlier. Three types of analyses were conducted to compare TM and MSS data: a water body analysis, a principal components analysis and a spectral clustering analysis. The water body analysis compared the capability of the TM to the MSS for detecting small uniform targets. Of the 59 ponds located on aerial photographs 34 (58%) were detected by the TM with six commission errors (15%) and 13 (22%) were detected by the MSS with three commission errors (19%). The smallest water body detected by the TM was 16 meters; the smallest detected by the MSS was 40 meters. For the principal components analysis, means and covariance matrices were calculated for each subscene, and principal components images generated and characterized. In the spectral clustering comparison each scene was independently clustered and the clusters were assigned to informational classes. The preliminary comparison indicated that TM data provides enhancements over MSS in terms of (1) small target detection and (2) data dimensionality (even with 4-band data). The extra dimension, partially resultant from TM band 1, appears useful for built-up/non-built-up area separation.

Markham, B. L.

Algorithms for Spectral Decomposition with Applications to Optical Plume Anomaly Detection

The analysis of spectral signals for features that represent physical phenomenon is ubiquitous in the science and engineering communities. There are two main approaches that can be taken to extract relevant features from these high-dimensional data streams. The first set of approaches relies on extracting features using a physics-based paradigm where the underlying physical mechanism that generates the spectra is used to infer the most important features in the data stream. We focus on a complementary methodology that uses a data-driven technique that is informed by the underlying physics but also has the ability to adapt to unmodeled system attributes and dynamics. We discuss the following four algorithms: Spectral Decomposition Algorithm (SDA), Non-Negative Matrix Factorization (NMF), Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and compare their performance on a spectral emulator which we use to generate artificial data with known statistical properties. This spectral emulator mimics the real-world phenomena arising from the plume of the space shuttle main engine and can be used to validate the results that arise from various spectral decomposition algorithms and is very useful for situations where real-world systems have very low probabilities of fault or failure. Our results indicate that methods like SDA and NMF provide a straightforward way of incorporating prior physical knowledge while NMF with a tuning mechanism can give superior performance on some tests. We demonstrate these algorithms to detect potential system-health issues on data from a spectral emulator with tunable health parameters.

Srivastava, Askok N.

Dimensionality Reduction Through Classifier Ensembles

In data mining, one often needs to analyze datasets with a very large number of attributes. Performing machine learning directly on such data sets is often impractical because of extensive run times, excessive complexity of the fitted model (often leading to overfitting), and the well-known "curse of dimensionality." In practice, to avoid such problems, feature selection and/or extraction are often used to reduce data dimensionality prior to the learning step. However, existing feature selection/extraction algorithms either evaluate features by their effectiveness across the entire data set or simply disregard class information altogether (e.g., principal component analysis). Furthermore, feature extraction algorithms such as principal components analysis create new features that are often meaningless to human users. In this article, we present input decimation, a method that provides "feature subsets" that are selected for their ability to discriminate among the classes. These features are subsequently used in ensembles of classifiers, yielding results superior to single classifiers, ensembles that use the full set of features, and ensembles based on principal component analysis on both real and synthetic datasets.

Oza, Nikunj C.

Towards Solving the Mixing Problem in the Decomposition of Geophysical Time Series by Independent Component Analysis

The use of the Principal Component Analysis technique for the analysis of geophysical time series has been questioned in particular for its tendency to extract components that mix several physical phenomena even when the signal is just their linear sum. We demonstrate with a data simulation experiment that the Independent Component Analysis, a recently developed technique, is able to solve this problem. This new technique requires the statistical independence of components, a stronger constraint, that uses higher-order statistics, instead of the classical decorrelation a weaker constraint, that uses only second-order statistics. Furthermore, ICA does not require additional a priori information such as the localization constraint used in Rotational Techniques.

Aires, Filipe

Summertime Influence of Asian Pollution in the Free Troposphere over North America

We analyze aircraft observations obtained during INTEX-A (1 July 14 - August 2004) to examine the summertime influence of Asian pollution in the free troposphere over North America. By applying correlation analysis and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to the observations between 6-12 km, we find dominant influences from recent convection and lightning (13 percent of observations), Asia (7 percent), the lower stratosphere (7 percent), and boreal forest fires (2 percent), with the remaining 71 percent assigned to background. Asian airmasses are marked by high levels of CO, O3, HCN, PAN, acetylene, benzene, methanol, and SO4(2-). The partitioning of reactive nitrogen species in the Asian plumes is dominated by peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN) (approximately 600 pptv), with varying NO(x)/HNO3 ratios in individual plumes consistent with different plumes ages ranging from 3 to 9 days. Export of Asian pollution in warm conveyor belts of mid-latitude cyclones, deep convection, and lifting in typhoons all contributed to the five major Asian pollution plumes. Compared to past measurement campaigns of Asian outflow during spring, INTEX-A observations display unique characteristics: lower levels of anthropogenic pollutants (CO, propane, ethane, benzene) due to their shorter summer lifetimes; higher levels of biogenic tracers (methanol and acetone) because of a more active biosphere; as well as higher levels of PAN, NO(x), HNO3, and O3 (more active photochemistry possibly enhanced by injection of lightning NO(x)). The high delta O3/delta CO ratio (0.76 mol mol(exp -1)) of Asian plumes during INTEX-A is due to a combination of strong photochemical production and mixing with stratospheric air along isentropic surfaces. The GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model captures the timing and location of the Asian plumes remarkably well. However, it significantly underestimates the magnitude of the enhancements.

Liang, Q.

Principal components technique analysis for vegetation and land use discrimination

Automatic pre-processing technique called Principal Components (PRINCO) in analyzing LANDSAT digitized data, for land use and vegetation cover, on the Brazilian cerrados was evaluated. The chosen pilot area, 223/67 of MSS/LANDSAT 3, was classified on a GE Image-100 System, through a maximum-likehood algorithm (MAXVER). The same procedure was applied to the PRINCO treated image. PRINCO consists of a linear transformation performed on the original bands, in order to eliminate the information redundancy of the LANDSAT channels. After PRINCO only two channels were used thus reducing computer effort. The original channels and the PRINCO channels grey levels for the five identified classes (grassland, "cerrado", burned areas, anthropic areas, and gallery forest) were obtained through the MAXVER algorithm. This algorithm also presented the average performance for both cases. In order to evaluate the results, the Jeffreys-Matusita distance (JM-distance) between classes was computed. The classification matrix, obtained through MAXVER, after a PRINCO pre-processing, showed approximately the same average performance in the classes separability.

Parada, N. D. J.

Geobotanical discrimination of ultramafic parent materials An evaluation of remote sensing techniques

Color and color infrared aerial photography and imagery acquired from a Daedalus DEI-1260 multispectral airborne scanner were employed in an investigation to discriminate ultramafic rock types in a test site in southwest Oregon. An analysis of the relationships between vegetation characteristics and parent materials was performed using a vegetation classification and map developed for the project, lithologic information derived from published geologic maps of the region, and terrain information gathered in the field. Several analytical methods, including visual image analysis, band ratioing, principal components analysis, and contrast enhancement and subsequent color composite generation were used in the investigation. There was a close correspondence between vegetation types and major rock types. These were readily discriminated by the remote sensing techniques. It was found that ultramafic rock types were separable from non-ultramafic rock types and serpentine was distinguishable from non-serpentinized peridotite. Further investigations involving spectroradiometric and digital classification techniques are being performed to further identify rock types and to discriminate chromium and nickel-bearing rock types.

Mouat, D. A.

Lidar conversion parameters derived from SAGE II extinction measurements

SAGE II multiwavelength aerosol extinction measurements are used to estimate mass- and extinction-to-backscatter conversion parameters. The basis of the analysis is the principal component analysis of the SAGE II extinction kernels to estimate both total aerosol mass and aerosol backscatter at a variety of wavelengths. Comparisons of coincident SAGE II extinction profiles with 0.694-micron aerosol backscatter profiles demonstrate the validity of the method.

Thomason, L. W.

Physical and statistical modeling of Saturn's troposphere

We analyze the 5.2-pm spectra of Saturn by utilizing two independent methods: (a) physical models based on the relevant atmospheric parameters and (b) statistical analysis, based on principal components analysis (PCA), to determine the influence of the variation of phosphine and the opacity of clouds deep within Saturn's atmosphere to understand the dynamics in its atmosphere.

Saturn

Wichita Climate II: Quantifying and Mapping Urban Heat to Inform Equitable and Sustainable Urban Planning Initiatives in Wichita, Kansas

Wichita, Kansas is experiencing a host of climate threats, particularly extreme heat manifested through Urban Heat Islands (UHI). Heat is unevenly distributed within cities due to factors such as income inequality, historical discriminatory practices like redlining, and divestment in neighborhoods of color. This leads to less vegetation and more heat-absorbing infrastructure in specific communities. Moreover, adverse effects of heat, including heat-related morbidity and mortality, disproportionately impact populations that experience vulnerability through social inequities and structural discrimination. Heat vulnerability is a combination of the factors of heat exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, and can be harnessed to guide urban heat interventions. This DEVELOP project partnered with the City of Wichita to understand the spatial distribution and drivers of UHIs and heat vulnerability indicators. The team modeled outcomes of tree cover interventions using Landsat 8’s Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) and Operational Land Imager (OLI), Landsat 9 TIRS-2 and OLI-2, and the International Space Station’s Ecosystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on the International Space Station (ECOSTRESS) sensor, along with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) Urban Cooling model. The team also leveraged statistical analysis by implementing principal component analysis to develop a heat vulnerability index (HVI) specific to Wichita. Ultimately, the project’s outputs will inform the City of Wichita’s Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Plan, identify priority areas for heat mitigation initiatives, and be used in public-facing communications to educate communities on the impacts of urban heat.

Environmental Justice

Quantification of waste morphology in Martian fretted terrain

Qualitative and quantitative analyses are performed on the northern fretted terrain of the Martian Isnenius Lacus quadrangle to determine the formation processes. The fretted terrain lies between 35-50 deg N latitude and 305-350 deg W longitude and was mapped with Viking orbiter instrumentation. The dominant landforms are a sequence of heavily cratered terrain, scattered flat-floored, fretted valleys, linear waste-covered valleys between flat-topped mesas, circum-mesa debris areas, a transition from mesas to knobby terrain, fewer upland forms, and low-relief, mantled, polar plains. The features spread out from a cratered terrain boundary in a succession of shapes. A principal components analysis characterizes definable spatial variations in the surface morphology and suggests that the features are youngest in the southwest direction. Relationships are also found between neighboring features. The principal components analysis technique is concluded to be a valuable tool for explaining the geomorphic evolution of the Martian surface.

Kochel, R. C.

LANDSAT-D thematic mapper image dimensionality reduction and geometric correction accuracy

When principal component analysis of a subscene of a section of the Sacramento River showed lower correlation among the TM spectral components that were observed for the MSS spectral components, principal component analysis was applied to a LANDSAT 2 MSS subscene of the same area for comparison purposes. Correlation coefficient matrices indicate the pairwise similarity and correlation of the data for the spectral components. The principal components transformation matrix, indicates the weights applied to the original components to generate the transformed components. The first two TM components can be described as visible and near infrared. For the MSS data, the first transformed component is roughly the average of the four original components. The second transformed component is roughly the difference between the visible and infrared components. Tables show that 97.0% of the variance in an MSS image is contained in only two transformed components.

Ford, G. E.

Applications of Sea-Ice Motion and Deformation Derived from Satellite Data

QuikSCAT backscatter, AMSR and DMSP SSM/I radiance data have been used to derive sea ice motion for both the Arctic and Antarctic region using the wavelet analysis tracking method. All results from QuikSCAT, AMSR and SSM5 are compatible with buoys and can then be merged by data fusion method to generate composite sea ice motion maps for more complete coverage. Furthermore, based on this merged data set daily sea-ice deformation (shear, and convergence) maps have been produced and show consistent spatial and temporal patterns. Temporal correlation maps between ice deformation and SSM/II ice concentration show interesting results in the Arctic, especially the coast area. In this study, principal component analysis for both the merged ice tracking result from satellite data and pressure field from buoy have also been examined for the relationship between the principal components and eigenvectors from these two data sets. While the result shows that principal components of modes 1 and 2 from two data sets are highly correlated which confirms that wind forcing is a major factor driving the ice drift, it also reveals that other high energy modes are not highly correlated which maybe caused by coastal effects. Principal component analysis of Arctic sea-ice motion during fall/winter period in different years shows the reverse of dominant modes or patterns is related to the Arctic Oscillation.

Liu, Antony K.

In Situ Aerosol Profile Measurements and Comparisons with SAGE 3 Aerosol Extinction and Surface Area Profiles at 68 deg North

Under funding from this proposal three in situ profile measurements of stratospheric sulfate aerosol and ozone were completed from balloon-borne platforms. The measured quantities are aerosol size resolved number concentration and ozone. The one derived product is aerosol size distribution, from which aerosol moments, such as surface area, volume, and extinction can be calculated for comparison with SAGE III measurements and SAGE III derived products, such as surface area. The analysis of these profiles and comparison with SAGE III extinction measurements and SAGE III derived surface areas are provided in Yongxiao (2005), which comprised the research thesis component of Mr. Jian Yongxiao's M.S. degree in Atmospheric Science at the University of Wyoming. In addition analysis continues on using principal component analysis (PCA) to derive aerosol surface area from the 9 wavelength extinction measurements available from SAGE III. Ths paper will present PCA components to calculate surface area from SAGE III measurements and compare these derived surface areas with those available directly from in situ size distribution measurements, as well as surface areas which would be derived from PCA and Thomason's algorithm applied to the four wavelength SAGE II extinction measurements.

Source record

Data Analysis & Statistical Methods for Command File Errors

This paper explains current work on modeling for managing the risk of command file errors. It is focused on analyzing actual data from a JPL spaceflight mission to build models for evaluating and predicting error rates as a function of several key variables. We constructed a rich dataset by considering the number of errors, the number of files radiated, including the number commands and blocks in each file, as well as subjective estimates of workload and operational novelty. We have assessed these data using different curve fitting and distribution fitting techniques, such as multiple regression analysis, and maximum likelihood estimation to see how much of the variability in the error rates can be explained with these. We have also used goodness of fit testing strategies and principal component analysis to further assess our data. Finally, we constructed a model of expected error rates based on the what these statistics bore out as critical drivers to the error rate. This model allows project management to evaluate the error rate against a theoretically expected rate as well as anticipate future error rates.

Correlation Analysis