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At least 73 records · Page 4

Predictive Flow Simulation with the P2R Model for the Composite Analysis Base Case

In order to meet the requirements of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in DOE O 435.1, Radioactive Waste Management, a composite analysis (CA) must be completed for the Central Plateau at the Hanford Site. The CA requires estimates of fate and transport of radionuclides in the groundwater from multiple sources within the modeling domain. This document details the application of the Plateau-to-River (P2R) Model version 8.3 to predict the flow of groundwater on the Central Plateau for the 10,000-year simulation to support the CA. The simulated flow field will support the simulation of fate and transport of contaminants for use in predicting dose as part of the CA. This document describes the changes made to model inputs in order to simulate the predictive flow field for the CA.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Machine learning-enhanced model-based scenario optimization for DIII-D

Abstract Scenario development in tokamaks is an open area of investigation that can be approached in a variety of different ways. Experimental trial and error has been the traditional method, but this required a massive amount of experimental time and resources. As high fidelity predictive models have become available, offline development and testing of proposed scenarios has become an option to reduce the required experimental resources. The use of predictive models also offers the possibility of using a numerical optimization process to find the controllable inputs that most closely achieve the desired plasma state. However, this type of optimization can require as many as hundreds or thousands of predictive simulation cases to converge to a solution; many of the commonly used high fidelity models have high computational burdens, so it is only reasonable to run a handful of predictive simulations. In order to make use of numerical optimization approaches, a compromise needs to be found between model fidelity and computational burden. This compromise can be achieved using neural networks surrogates of high fidelity models that retain nearly the same level of accuracy as the models they are trained to replicate while reducing the computation time by orders of magnitude. In this work, a model-based numerical optimization tool for scenario development is described. The predictive model used by the optimizer includes neural network surrogate models integrated into the fast Control-Oriented Transport simulation framework. This optimization scheme is able to converge to the optimal values of the controllable inputs that produce the target plasma scenario by running thousands of predictive simulations in under an hour without sacrificing too much prediction accuracy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A transported Livengood-Wu integral model for knock prediction in CFD simulation

This work describes the development of a transported Livengood-Wu (L-W) integral model for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation to predict auto-ignition and engine knock tendency. The currently employed L-W integral model considers both single-stage and two-stage ignition processes, thus can be generally applied to different fuels such as paraffin, olefin, aromatics and alcohol. The model implementation is first validated in simulations of homogeneous charge compression ignition combustion for three different fuels, showing good accuracy in prediction of auto-ignition timing for fuels with either single-stage or two-stage ignition characteristics. Then, the L-W integral model is coupled with G-equation model to indicate end-gas auto-ignition and knock tendency in CFD simulations of a direct injection spark ignition engine. This modeling approach is about 10 times more efficient than the ones that based on detailed chemistry calculation and pressure oscillation analysis. Two fuels with same Research Octane Number (RON) but different octane sensitivity are studied, namely Co-Optima Alkylate and Co-Optima E30. Feed-forward neural network model in conjunction with multi-variable minimization technique is used to generate fuel surrogates with targets of matched RON, octane sensitivity and ethanol content. The CFD model is validated against experimental data in terms of pressure traces and heat release rate for both fuels under a wide range of operating conditions. The knock tendency indicated by the fuel energy contained in the auto-ignited region of the two fuels at different load conditions correlates well with the experimental results and the fuel octane sensitivity, implying the current knock modeling approach can capture the octane sensitivity effect and can be applied to further investigation on composition of octane sensitivity.

Yue, Zongyu↗

A Case Study Using Modeling and Simulation to Predict Logistics Supply Chain Issues

Optimization of critical supply chains to deliver thousands of parts, materials, sub-assemblies, and vehicle structures as needed is vital to the success of the Constellation Program. Thorough analysis needs to be performed on the integrated supply chain processes to plan, source, make, deliver, and return critical items efficiently. Process modeling provides simulation technology-based, predictive solutions for supply chain problems which enable decision makers to reduce costs, accelerate cycle time and improve business performance. For example, United Space Alliance, LLC utilized this approach in late 2006 to build simulation models that recreated shuttle orbiter thruster failures and predicted the potential impact of thruster removals on logistics spare assets. The main objective was the early identification of possible problems in providing thruster spares for the remainder of the Shuttle Flight Manifest. After extensive analysis the model results were used to quantify potential problems and led to improvement actions in the supply chain. Similarly the proper modeling and analysis of Constellation parts, materials, operations, and information flows will help ensure the efficiency of the critical logistics supply chains and the overall success of the program.

Tucker, David A.↗

Performance prediction applying different reduced turbulence models to the SMART tokamak

The SMall Aspect Ratio Tokamak (SMART) is currently being commissioned at the University of Seville and will be able to compare the performance of positive and negative triangularity plasmas at low aspect ratio. Predictive simulations have been performed for different machine scenarios and heating schemes using the TRANSP code. The objectives of these simulations are to predict the parameters expected in positive triangularity plasmas, to guide diagnostic development, and to validate transport models. Several reduced turbulence models have been used to predict electron and ion temperatures for the operational phase 2. All models provide similar results from approximately mid-radius to the separatrix but important discrepancies are found in the core region. These positive triangularity results are compared with experiments from a similar size machine like GLOBUS-M2. The multi-mode model (MMM) shows the best agreement. Simulations with different boundary conditions have been performed and no strong differences have been observed between them. The impact of neutral beam injection (NBI) on the predicted profiles has also been addressed. Rotation reduces turbulence levels so higher temperatures are achieved when included in the simulations. Studying the different contributions to the thermal diffusivities, it is observed that electron temperature gradient (ETG) turbulence dominates at the plasma core while micro-tearing modes (MTM) dominate at the edge in the electron channel. In the ion channel, the neoclassical contribution is dominant at the core and at the very edge while the Weiland component, which includes ion temperature gradient mode (ITG), trapped electron mode (TEM), kinetic ballooning mode (KBM), peeling mode (PM) and collisionless and collision dominated magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modes governs the mid-radius region. For phase 3, two plasmas with different electron densities have been studied. The case with lower density matches well a specific discharge of GLOBUS-M2. The higher density plasma shows high performance with β N ≈ 3.8.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Large eddy simulation - A predictive approach to turbulent flow computation

The filtering approach (Leonard, 1974) to large eddy simulation is described. Large eddy simulation is then surveyed with reference to subgrid scale models, numerical methods, channel flow, and free shear flows. It is concluded that the premise of LES (i.e., that the small eddies are much easier to model than the large ones) seems to be borne out by computational experience to date. The greatest obstacle in LES at present is the lack of computer power which effectively denies the ability to simulate all the significant eddies in flows of interest.

Ferziger, J. H.↗

In-Flight Line-Of-Sight Pointing Performance for the GOES-16 and GOES-17 Spacecraft

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R program (GOES-R) has launched two of the next generation geostationary weather satellites, both of which are now fully operational. GOES-16 launched in November 2016, and GOES-17 launched in March 2017. In this paper, we present the pointing and pointing stability results of the two spacecraft, with specific focus on aspects of the design related to mitigating jitter. The flight instrument suite includes 6 seismic accelerometers sampled at approximately 2 kilohertz, allowing in-flight verification of pointing stability and comparison back to simulation predictions. This paper compares the observed flight results with the simulation predictions for acceleration and shock response spectrum (SRS) for various operational scenarios and instrument observation modes. Passive isolation of both the reaction wheels and the payload deck have proved to be effective in reducing jitter responses. Active Vibration Damping (AVD) of flexible-body modes attenuates the low frequency motion of the vehicle appendages, improving the low-frequency pointing performance. Knowledge of the instrument scan mirror motion is fed forward to the reaction wheel control, reducing disturbances on the spacecraft bus. Attitude knowledge and rate data are provided to the primary Earth-observing instrument with an accuracy defined by the Integrated Rate Error (IRE) requirements. The data are used to adjust instrument scanning. As we show in this paper, the in-flight performance of the GN&C (Guidance, Navigation and Control) design provides the necessary capabilities to achieve the demanding GOES-R mission objectives while its robustness enabled the simultaneous operation of the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) prime and redundant cryocoolers (CCs) to resolve an in-flight cooling anomaly on GOES-17.

Line-of-Sight↗

Use of the WEST-1 wind turbine simulator to predict blade fatigue load distribution

To test the ability of WEST-1 to predict blade fatigue load distribution, actual wind signals were fed into the simulator and the response data were recorded and processed in the same manner as actual wind turbine data. The WEST-1 simulator was operated in a stable, unattended mode for six hours. The probability distribution of the cyclic flatwise bending moment for the blade was comparable to that for an actual wind turbine in winds with low turbulence. The input from a stationary anemometer was found to be inadequate for use in the prediction of fatigue load distribution for blade design purposes and modifications are necessary.

Janetzke, D. C.↗

Demonstrate moving-grid multi-turbine simulations primarily run on GPUs and propose improvements for successful KPP-2

The goal of the ExaWind project is to enable predictive simulations of wind farms comprised of many megawatt-scale turbines situated in complex terrain. Predictive simulations will require computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations for which the mesh resolves the geometry of the turbines, capturing the thin boundary layers, and captures the rotation and large deflections of blades. Whereas such simulations for a single turbine are arguably petascale class, multi-turbine wind farm simulations will require exascale-class resources.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Resolution matters when modeling climate change in headwaters of the Colorado River

The continued growth of Southwestern cities depends on reliable water export from Rocky Mountain headwaters, which provide ~85% of Colorado River Basin (CRB) streamflow. Despite being more sensitive to warming temperatures, alpine systems are simplified in the regional-scale models currently in use to plan for future water supply. We used an integrated hydrologic model that couples groundwater and surface water with snow and vegetation processes to examine the effect of topographic simplifications as a result of grid coarsening in a representative CRB headwater basin. High-resolution (100 m) simulations predicted headwater streamflow losses of 16% by 2050 while coarse-resolution (1 km) simulations predict only 12%, suggesting that regional-scale models (coarser than 1 km) likely overestimate future Colorado River Basin water supplies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Compare linear-system solver and preconditioner stacks with emphasis on GPU performance and propose phase-2 NGP solver development pathway

The goal of the ExaWind project is to enable predictive simulations of wind farms comprised of many megawatt-scale turbines situated in complex terrain. Predictive simulations will require computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations for which the mesh resolves the geometry of the turbines and captures the rotation and large deflections of blades. Whereas such simulations for a single turbine are arguably petascale class, multi-turbine wind farm simulations will require exascale-class resources. The primary physics codes in the ExaWind project are Nalu-Wind, which is an unstructured-grid solver for the acoustically incompressible Navier-Stokes equations, and OpenFAST, which is a whole-turbine simulation code. The Nalu-Wind model consists of the mass-continuity Poisson-type equation for pressure and a momentum equation for the velocity. For such modeling approaches, simulation times are dominated by linear-system setup and solution for the continuity and momentum systems. For the ExaWind challenge problem, the moving meshes greatly affect overall solver costs as reinitialization of matrices and recomputation of preconditioners is required at every time step. In this report we evaluated GPU-performance baselines for the linear solvers in the Trilinos and hypre solver stacks using two representative Nalu-Wind simulations: an atmospheric boundary layer precursor simulation on a structured mesh, and a fixed-wing simulation using unstructured overset meshes. Both strong-scaling and weak-scaling experiments were conducted on the OLCF supercomputer Summit and similar proxy clusters. We focused on the performance of multi-threaded Gauss-Seidel and two-stage Gauss-Seidel that are extensions of classical Gauss-Seidel; of one-reduce GMRES, a communication-reducing variant of the Krylov GMRES; and algebraic multigrid methods that incorporate the afore-mentioned methods. The team has established that AMG methods are capable of solving linear systems arising from the fixed-wing overset meshes on CPU, a critical intermediate result for ExaWind FY20 Q3 and Q4 milestones. For the fixed-wing strong-scaling study (model with 3M grid-points), the team identified that Nalu-Wind simulations with the new Trilinos and hypre solvers scale to modest GPU counts, maintaining above 70% efficiency up to 6 GPUs. However, there still remain significant bottlenecks to performance: matrix assembly (hypre), AMG setup (hypre and Trilinos) In the weak-scaling experiments (going from 0.4M to 211M gridpoints), it's shown that the solver apply phases are faster on GPUs, but that Nalu-Wind simulation times grow, primarily due to the multigrid-setup process. Finally, based on the report outcomes, we propose a linear solver path-forward for the remainder of the ExaWind project. Near term, the NREL team will continue their work on GPU-based linear-system assembly. They will also investigate how the use of alternatives to the NVIDIA UVM (unified virtual memory) paradigm affects performance. Longer term, the NREL team will evaluate algorithmic performance on other types of accelerators and merge their improvements back to the main hypre repository branch. Near term, the Trilinos team will address performance bottlenecks identified in this milestone, such as implementing a GPU-based segregated momentum solve and reusing matrix graphs across linear-system assembly phases. Longer term, the Trilinos team will do detailed analysis and optimization of multigrid setup.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Demonstrate multi-turbine simulation with hybrid-structured / unstructured-moving-grid software stack running primarily on GPUs and propose improvements for successful KPP-2

The goal of the ExaWind project is to enable predictive simulations of wind farms comprised of many megawatt-scale turbines situated in complex terrain. Predictive simulations will require computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations for which the mesh resolves the geometry of the turbines, capturing the thin boundary layers, and captures the rotation and large deflections of blades. Whereas such simulations for a single turbine are arguably petascale class, multi-turbine wind farm simulations will require exascale-class resources.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Predictive Flow Simulation with the P2R Model for the Composite Analysis Base Case

In order to meet the requirements of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in DOE O 435.1 Chg.1, Radioactive Waste Management, a Composite Analysis (CA) must be completed for the Central Plateau at the Hanford Site. The CA requires estimates of fate and transport of radionuclides in the groundwater from multiple sources within the modeling domain. This document details the application of the P2R Model version 8.3 to predict the flow of groundwater on the Central Plateau for the 10,000-year simulation to support the CA. The simulated flow field will support the simulation of fate and transport of contaminants for use in predicting dose as part of the CA.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Predictive Flow Simulation with the P2R Model for the Composite Analysis Base Case

In order to meet the requirements of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in DOE O 435.1 Chg. 1, Radioactive Waste Management, a Composite Analysis (CA) must be completed for the Central Plateau at the Hanford Site. The CA requires estimates of fate and transport of radionuclides in the groundwater from multiple sources within the modeling domain. This document details the application of the P2R Model version 8.3 to predict the flow of groundwater on the Central Plateau for the 10,000-year simulation to support the CA. The simulated flow field will support the simulation of fate and transport of contaminants for use in predicting dose as part of the CA.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Modeling Dust Production, Growth, and Destruction in Reionization-era Galaxies with the CROC Simulations. II. Predicting the Dust Content of High-redshift Galaxies

Abstract We model the interstellar dust content of the reionization era with a suite of cosmological, fluid-dynamical simulations of galaxies with stellar masses ranging from ∼10 5 to 10 9 M ⊙ in the first 1.2 Gyr of the Universe. We use a post-processing method that accounts for dust creation and destruction processes, allowing us to systematically vary the parameters of these processes to test whether dust-dependent observable quantities of galaxies at these epochs could be useful for placing constraints on dust physics. We then forward model observable properties of these galaxies to compare to existing data. We find that we are unable to simultaneously match existing observational constraints with any one set of model parameters. Specifically, the models that predict the largest dust masses D / Z ≳ 0.1 at z = 5—because of high assumed production yields and/or efficient growth via accretion in the interstellar medium—are preferred by constraints on total dust mass and infrared (IR) luminosities, but these models produce far too much attenuation in the ultraviolet (UV), preventing them from matching observations of β UV . To investigate this discrepancy, we analyze the relative spatial distribution of stars and dust as probed by IR and UV emission, which appear to exhibit overly symmetric morphologies compared to existing data, likely due to the limitations of the stellar feedback model used in the simulations. Our results indicate that the observable properties of the dust distribution in high redshift galaxies are a particularly strong test of stellar feedback.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

TASKILLAN - A simulation to predict the validity of multiple resource models of aviation workload

A study to establish the validity of five predictive models of workload in the context of a controlled helicopter mission, TASKILLAN, is presented. Ten subjects performed simulations involving combinations of a low level flight task with three cognitive side tasks pertaining to navigation, spatial awareness, and computation. It is found that the best predictors of subjective workload are relativly simple models that integrate the total demands of task over time.

Wickens, Christopher D.↗