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At least 73 records · Page 4

Supply Chain Research and Analysis for Space Systems

The implementation of NASA GSFC's portfolio of mission projects relies upon inter-connected, multi-tiered supply chains of organizations operating under direct and indirect contracts and other agreements throughout the U.S. and around the world. These supply chains are subject to an inter-related array of technical/production, business, market and security risks that are amplified by the ongoing globalization of industry and technology and which can disrupt or threaten the production and delivery of products and services when needed and in conformance with requirements. In recognition of such risks and associated challenges, GSFC's SMA directorate launched an innovative Supply Chain Research and Analysis capability three years ago to gain greater insight into the operating environment, performance, capabilities and viability of current and prospective suppliers for GSFC projects and proposals. The capability uses business intelligence techniques and primarily open source information resources as part of a cost-effective, non-intrusive methodology to produce several types of research and analysis reports. The reports are based on a holistic analytical framework encompassing key technical/production, business enterprise management, market and security factors, and feature in-depth information, summary information profiles, SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis, and candidate risk concerns in order to pro-actively support SMA and project management needs. The SRA capability, which is designed to complement and support ongoing SMA/project management activities and practices, has produced over 105 reports since its start-up in early 2015.This presentation addresses the approach, methodology and performance of the Supply Chain Research and Analysiscapability and its value in assuring the success of NASA mission projects. In doing so, the presentation provides lessons-learned, best practices, case examples and address how it fits into the development of an enterprise-level Supply Chain Risk Management capability.

supply chain risk management↗

Identification of Crew-Systems Interactions and Decision Related Trends

NASA Vehicle System Safety Technology (VSST) project management uses systems analysis to identify key issues and maintain a portfolio of research leading to potential solutions to its three identified technical challenges. Statistical data and published safety priority lists from academic, industry and other government agencies were reviewed and analyzed by NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) systems analysis personnel to identify issues and future research needs related to one of VSST's technical challenges, Crew Decision Making (CDM). The data examined in the study were obtained from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) Aviation Accident and Incident Data System, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Accident/Incident Data System and the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS). In addition, this report contains the results of a review of safety priority lists, information databases and other documented references pertaining to aviation crew systems issues and future research needs. The specific sources examined were: Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Safety Enhancements Reserved for Future Implementation (SERFIs), Flight Deck Automation Issues (FDAI) and NTSB Most Wanted List and Open Recommendations. Various automation issues taxonomies and priority lists pertaining to human factors, automation and flight design were combined to create a list of automation issues related to CDM.

Jones, Sharon Monica↗

ReNCAT: The Resilient Node Cluster Analysis Tool

ReNCAT is a software application that suggests microgrid portfolios that reduce the impact of large-scale disruptions to power, as measured by the Social Burden Metric. ReNCAT examines a power distribution network to identify regions that can be isolated into microgrids that enable critical services to be provided even if the remainder of the study area is left without power. ReNCAT operates on a simplified representation of the power grid, one that aggregates and approximates loads and conductors. Microgrids are formed within the power network by setting switch states to split or join portions of the grid. ReNCAT identifies candidate microgrid portfolios with varying tradeoffs between cost and service availability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

XML technology planning database : lessons learned

A hierarchical Extensible Markup Language(XML) database called XCALIBR (XML Analysis LIBRary) has been developed by Millennium Program to assist in technology investment (ROI) analysis and technology Language Capability the New return on portfolio optimization. The database contains mission requirements and technology capabilities, which are related by use of an XML dictionary. The XML dictionary codifies a standardized taxonomy for space missions, systems, subsystems and technologies. In addition to being used for ROI analysis, the database is being examined for use in project planning, tracking and documentation. During the past year, the database has moved from development into alpha testing. This paper describes the lessons learned during construction and testing of the prototype database and the motivation for moving from an XML taxonomy to a standard XML-based ontology.

prototype databases↗

Analysis Program Annual Progress Report (FY2020)

During fiscal year 2020 (FY 2020), the U.S. Department of Energy Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) funded analysis projects supportive of VTO’s goals to pursue early stage research in vehicle and mobility system technologies to reduce petroleum dependence, increase energy reliability and security, improve transportation affordability, and promote economic growth. VTO analysis projects result in a foundation of data, analytical models, and applied analyses that provide insights into critical transportation energy problems and assist in research investment prioritization and portfolio planning. This document presents a brief overview of VTO analysis efforts and progress for projects funded in FY 2020. Each of the progress reports includes project objectives, approach, and highlights of the technical results that were accomplished during the fiscal year.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Analysis Program 2021 Annual Progress Report

During fiscal year 2021 (FY 2021), the U.S. Department of Energy Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) funded analysis projects supportive of VTO’s goals to pursue early-stage research in vehicle and mobility system technologies to reduce petroleum dependence, increase energy reliability and security, improve transportation affordability, and promote economic growth. VTO analysis projects result in a foundation of data, analytical models, and applied analyses that provide insights into critical transportation energy problems and assist in research investment prioritization and portfolio planning. This document presents a brief overview of VTO analysis efforts and progress for projects funded in FY 2021. Each of the progress reports includes project objectives, approach, and highlights of the technical results that were accomplished during the fiscal year (FY).

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Risk-Based Causal Modeling of Airborne Loss of Separation

Maintaining safe separation between aircraft remains one of the key aviation challenges as the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges. The goals of the NextGen are to increase capacity and reduce flight delays to meet the aviation demand growth through the 2025 time frame while maintaining safety and efficiency. The envisioned NextGen is expected to enable high air traffic density, diverse fleet operations in the airspace, and a decrease in separation distance. All of these factors contribute to the potential for Loss of Separation (LOS) between aircraft. LOS is a precursor to a potential mid-air collision (MAC). The NASA Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing aircraft separation assurance concepts and technologies to mitigate LOS instances, therefore, preventing MAC. This paper focuses on the analysis of causal and contributing factors of LOS accidents and incidents leading to MAC occurrences. Mid-air collisions among large commercial aircraft are rare in the past decade, therefore, the LOS instances in this study are for general aviation using visual flight rules in the years 2000-2010. The study includes the investigation of causal paths leading to LOS, and the development of the Airborne Loss of Separation Analysis Model (ALOSAM) using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) to capture the multi-dependent relations of causal factors. The ALOSAM is currently a qualitative model, although further development could lead to a quantitative model. ALOSAM could then be used to perform impact analysis of concepts and technologies in the AOSP portfolio on the reduction of LOS risk.

Geuther, Steven C.↗

The Potential Impact of Offshore Wind Energy on a Future Power System in the U.S. Northeast

This study aims to understand and quantify the potential impact of offshore wind on a future electricity system in the U.S. Northeast. In this analysis, a detailed representation of the Northeast power system is adopted, using a generation portfolio for 2024 paired with offshore wind nameplate capacities of 0 gigawatts (GW), 2 GW, and 7 GW. The analysis identifies points of offshore wind interconnection in the ISO-New England and New York Independent System Operator control areas and uses hourly wind profiles from the Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit. Hourly simulations of the 2024 power system operations show an ability to accommodate the prescribed offshore wind capacities by adapting the system's generation dispatch. Curtailment levels of offshore wind range between 4% and 5%. Offshore wind generation displaces primarily natural-gas combined-cycle generation; however, requires increased flexibility from combined cycles through more frequent start-ups. The number of hours with transmission congestion increases because of offshore wind injection, with varying impact on a subregional level. Offshore wind's capacity credit was found to be 14.5%-28.3% and is lower than estimated in other large-scale power system studies, in part because this study considered a different weather year and a power system representation with higher shares of solar PV and onshore wind. The reliability contribution of resources is a topic area identified for more research and collaboration. The 7-GW scenario shows a reduction in locational marginal price of 11%, with production cost savings of up to 18% compared to the 0-GW scenario.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Applying Technology Ranking and Systems Engineering in Advanced Life Support

According to the Advanced Life Support (ALS) Program Plan, the Systems Modeling and Analysis Project (SMAP) has two important tasks: 1) prioritizing investments in ALS Research and Technology Development (R&TD), and 2) guiding the evolution of ALS systems. Investments could be prioritized simply by independently ranking different technologies, but we should also consider a technology's impact on system design. Guiding future ALS systems will require SMAP to consider many aspects of systems engineering. R&TD investments can be prioritized using familiar methods for ranking technology. The first step is gathering data on technology performance, safety, readiness level, and cost. Then the technologies are ranked using metrics or by decision analysis using net present economic value. The R&TD portfolio can be optimized to provide the maximum expected payoff in the face of uncertain future events. But more is needed. The optimum ALS system can not be designed simply by selecting the best technology for each predefined subsystem. Incorporating a new technology, such as food plants, can change the specifications of other subsystems, such as air regeneration. Systems must be designed top-down starting from system objectives, not bottom-up from selected technologies. The familiar top-down systems engineering process includes defining mission objectives, mission design, system specification, technology analysis, preliminary design, and detail design. Technology selection is only one part of systems analysis and engineering, and it is strongly related to the subsystem definitions. ALS systems should be designed using top-down systems engineering. R&TD technology selection should consider how the technology affects ALS system design. Technology ranking is useful but it is only a small part of systems engineering.

Jones, Harry↗

The Analysis of the Contribution of Human Factors to the In-Flight Loss of Control Accidents

In-flight loss of control (LOC) is currently the leading cause of fatal accidents based on various commercial aircraft accident statistics. As the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) emerges, new contributing factors leading to LOC are anticipated. The NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP), along with other aviation agencies and communities are actively developing safety products to mitigate the LOC risk. This paper discusses the approach used to construct a generic integrated LOC accident framework (LOCAF) model based on a detailed review of LOC accidents over the past two decades. The LOCAF model is comprised of causal factors from the domain of human factors, aircraft system component failures, and atmospheric environment. The multiple interdependent causal factors are expressed in an Object-Oriented Bayesian belief network. In addition to predicting the likelihood of LOC accident occurrence, the system-level integrated LOCAF model is able to evaluate the impact of new safety technology products developed in AvSP. This provides valuable information to decision makers in strategizing NASA's aviation safety technology portfolio. The focus of this paper is on the analysis of human causal factors in the model, including the contributions from flight crew and maintenance workers. The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) taxonomy was used to develop human related causal factors. The preliminary results from the baseline LOCAF model are also presented.

Ancel, Ersin↗

Aerobots as a Ubiquitous Part of Society

Small autonomous aerial robots (aerobots) have the potential to make significant positive contributions to modern society. Aerobots of various vehicle-types - CTOL, STOL, VTOL, and even possibly LTA - will be a part of a new paradigm for the distribution of goods and services. Aerobots as a class of vehicles may test the boundaries of aircraft design. New system analysis and design tools will be required in order to account for the new technologies and design parameters/constraints for such vehicles. The analysis tools also provide new approaches to defining/assessing technology goals and objectives and the technology portfolio necessary to accomplish those goals and objectives. Using the aerobot concept as an illustrative test case, key attributes of these analysis tools are discussed.

Young, Larry A.↗

Topological Machine Learning Methods for Power System Responses to Contingencies

While deep learning tools, coupled with the emerging machinery of topological data analysis, are proven to deliver various performance gains in a broad range of applications, from image classification to biosurveillance to blockchain fraud detection, their utility in areas of high societal importance such as power system modeling and, particularly, resilience quantification in the energy sector yet remains untapped. To provide fast acting synthetic regulation and contingency reserve services to the grid while having minimal disruptions on customer quality of service, we propose a new topology-based system that depends on a neural network architecture for impact metric classification and prediction in power systems. This novel topology-based system allows one to evaluate the impact of three power system contingency types, in conjunction with transmission lines, transformers, and transmission lines combined with transformers. We show that the proposed new neural network architecture equipped with local topological measures facilitates more accurate classification of unserved load as well as the amount of unserved load. In addition, we are able to learn more about the complex relationships between electrical properties and local topological measurements on their simulated response to contingencies for the NREL-SIIP power system.

contingency analysis↗

Two-Step Resonance-Enhanced Desorption Laser Mass Spectrometry for In Situ Analysis of Organic-Rich Environments

A wide diversity of planetary surfaces in the solar system represent high priority targets for in situ compositional and contextual analysis as part of future missions. The planned mission portfolio will inform our knowledge of the chemistry at play on Mars, icy moons, comets, and primitive asteroids, which can lead to advances in our understanding of the interplay between inorganic and organic building blocks that led to the evolution of habitable environments on Earth and beyond. In many of these environments, the presence of water or aqueously altered mineralogy is an important indicator of habitable environments that are present or may have been present in the past. As a result, the search for complex organic chemistry that may imply the presence of a feedstock, if not an inventory of biosignatures, is naturally aligned with targeted analyses of water-rich surface materials. Here we describe the two-step laser mass spectrometry (L2MS) analytical technique that has seen broad application in the study of organics in meteoritic samples, now demonstrated to be compatible with an in situ investigation with technique improvements to target high priority planetary environments as part of a future scientific payload. An ultraviolet (UV) pulsed laser is used in previous and current embodiments of laser desorption/ionization mass spectrometry (LDMS) to produce ionized species traceable to the mineral and organic composition of a planetary surface sample. L2MS, an advanced technique in laser mass spectrometry, is selective to the aromatic organic fraction of a complex sample, which can provide additional sensitivity and confidence in the detection of specific compound structures. Use of a compact two-step laser mass spectrometer prototype has been previously reported to provide specificity to key aromatic species, such as PAHs, nucleobases, and certain amino acids. Recent improvements in this technique have focused on the interaction between the mineral matrix and the organic analyte. The majority of planetary targets of astrobiological interest are characterized by the presence of water or hydrated mineral phases. Water signatures can indicate a history of available liquid water that may have played an important role in the chemical environment of these planetary surfaces and subsurfaces. The studies we report here investigate the influence of water content on the detectability of organics by L2MS in planetary analog samples.

primitive asteroids↗

R&D Effort of Geologic Hydrogen Production at the National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL)

Geologic hydrogen (geoH2) is an emerging technology with massive current market interest and distinct potential to change the paradigm of hydrogen production. Two major subsurface processes influence the amount of geoH2 that are available for energy extraction: 1) geochemical reactions of H2O and Fe2+-bearing rocks which can produce hydrogen in the subsurface environment, where 2) various active microbial communities consume hydrogen as an energy source before the hydrogen reaches the surface. The net gain of hydrogen from these two competing processes dictates the production rate of geoH2. A recent study (Templeton et al., 2024) suggested that for most natural geoH2 systems, five orders of magnitude of production rate enhancement are needed to make geoH2 production economical in the near term. Effective enhancement of the production rate requires an in-depth understanding of the two geoH2 processes, in order to promote the H2-generating geochemical processes and suppress the H2-consuming microbial processes. However, current significant knowledge gaps in these two processes hinders the efforts to formulate strategies to enhance geoH2 production. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is a U.S. Department of Energy National Laboratory with the core mission of leading research, innovation, and strategic partnership to deliver solutions for a clean energy based economy. NREL's extensive research portfolio in hydrogen, bioenergy, geothermal, industrial decarbonization, and energy analysis makes us well positioned to conduct interdisciplinary research and facilitate technology deployment in the geoH2 space. In this presentation, we will discuss ongoing geoH2 research and engagement efforts at NREL, including: 1) geochemical investigation to understand the reaction mechanisms and production rate and potential of different source minerals and rocks, 2) microbiological investigation to understand methanogenesis and acetogenesis in the subsurface geoH2 environment, and identify effective inhibitors for these microbial processes, and 3) preliminary analysis for geoH2 production in the State of Minnesota, where abundant Fe-rich rocks for stimulated geoH2 production and ample opportunity to utilize geoH2 in transforming iron and steel industries are currently available.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Impact of NASA’s Entry Systems Modeling Project on Planetary Mission Design

Planetary missions continue to grow larger and more complex. Furthermore, the current focus on human exploration of the Moon and Mars, as well as Mars Sample Return(MSR), place increas-ingly stringent requirements on the reliability of the entry, descent, and landing (EDL) system that ensures the safe delivery of payload or crew to their destination. Planetary EDL is an area in which mission designers are critically reliant on modeling and simulation to demonstrate the reliability of the system, as there are no ground facilities that are able to fully test these systems in a flight-relevant environment. NASA’s state-of-the-art modeling and simulation capability must continually evolve to meet the needs of the next generation of planetary EDL. To accomplish this aim, NASA’s Entry Systems Modeling (ESM) Project was formed in 2013and is funded bythe Space Technology Mission Directorate(STMD) and Science Mission Directorate (SMD). ESM is the Agency’s only cross-cutting effort for advancing entry systems modeling and simulation capabilities across a range of technical disciplines and Solar System destinations. ESM is a portfolio project covering a variety of mid-TRL research efforts within four core EDL-related areas of investment: (1) Thermal protection material modeling, (2) Shock layer kinetics and radiation, (3) Aerosciences, and (4) Guidance, navigation, and con-trol. The material modeling group creates detailed material response modelsof thermal protection systems (TPS)from the micro to macro scale, and at the fun-damental and engineering levels. Shock layer kinetics and radiation focuses on radiative heating of space-craft, quantum chemistry and benchmark experiments for validation.Aerosciences is a broad research area that impacts many aspects of entry systems, including parachutes, aerodynamics, and turbulent heating augmentation due to TPS roughness.The guidance, navigation,and control effort under ESM is expanding the capabilities of NASA’s main flight mechanics tool, POST2, for use on high-performance computing architectures and to generalize interoperability with external applications for more detailed end-to-end simula-tion.In addition, several focusedresearch topics have been approvedto augment ESM’s core portfolio. These include efforts for deep post-flight analysis of Mars 2020/MEDLI2 flight data; development ofTPS failure models; improvement of hypersonic wakeflow models; and a recently concluded effort to provide material response models for NuSil-coated PICA heat-shield material. This presentation will discuss each of these investment areas and demonstrate via real mission examples how advances to the state-of-the-art enabled by ESM are directly impacting the missions of today and tomorrow, including InSight, Mars 2020, Mars Sample Return, Orion, and Dragonfly.

Entry Systems Modeling↗

Framework for NASA Space Relay Satellite Services over the Next Decade: Development and Demonstration of the Commercial Successors to TDRS

• NASA SCaN Program plans to pursue commercial services for communications with Spacecrafts in near-earth Orbit • The Communications Services Project (CSP) formulated at GRC to establish partnerships with commercial SATCOM companies to develop and demonstrate the feasibility of providing SATCOM capabilities that could be offered as a service for future spacecraft users • CSP pursued an Announcement of Proposals (AFP) in 2021 • Awarded 6 industry vendors out of 14 (~ $278 million) • Viasat, SES Government Solutions, SpaceX; Kuiper Government Solutions (KGS), Telesat U.S. Services, Inmarsat Government. (4 RF and 2 Optical) • AFP’s objectives to develop and demonstrate end-to-end operational capabilities that could meet the needs of Government and private sector customers and maximize interoperability between them. • NASA completed assessment and analysis of the 6 industry proposals. • Results identified optimal portfolio that best meet AFP’s Objectives when considering capability coverage, risk spread, levels of confidence, U.S. domestic market stimulation, price and NASA budget.

George Haddad↗

Greenhouse gas emissions reduction strategies that maximize portfolio-wide life cycle cost reduction, resilience, and environmental justice benefits

While strategies to achieve net-zero emissions at an individual site are well understood, new analysis methods are required for organizations seeking to achieve net-zero across multiple facilities, each with concurrent priority goals. At a portfolio level, distinct locations present varied challenges that cannot be addressed through singular solutions, and competing goals can take precedence with the assumption that net-zero emissions strategies deter from energy resilience and cost savings, therefore negatively impacting nearby communities. This study tests these assumptions by analyzing 16 diverse sites (varying in size, climate, and energy use) to identify strategies that reduce emissions and assess the impact these strategies have on life cycle costs, resilience, and communities with environmental justice concerns. Methods were developed to approximate missing information essential to net-zero evaluation. Established methods were augmented to evaluate life cycle costs, resilience, and environmental justice impacts across a set of strategies and accommodate the multi-criteria analyses. Potential benefits from identified strategies were quantified using site characteristics and a set of corresponding metrics. The net-zero analysis found that 11 sites could use on-site strategies to eliminate all but 2% of emissions generated. The remaining emissions can be offset, for instance through sequestration, executed at the portfolio scale. On-site carbon-free energy was found to reduce 51% of emissions across all sites; efficiency reduced 19% of emissions; sequestration 16%; procured carbon-free energy 15%; fuel switching 1.6%; and fleet electrification 1.3%. Building electrification, however, increased emissions by 4.4%. Different strategies also provide cost, resilience, and/or environmental justice benefits—the degree to which varies with individual site conditions. The findings indicate an advantage to considering the strategies as a comprehensive set, which leads to co-benefits, both in the ability to achieve net-zero goals and in advancing other goals. The results present the case for comprehensive advanced planning at the portfolio level to prioritize investments that will balance the minimization of emissions and life cycle cost with the maximization of resilience and environmental justice benefits. The novel methods for evaluation and integration, valuation of benefits, and consideration at the portfolio scale allow organizations to select investments that simultaneously address multiple key priorities.

Net-Zero Emissions↗

WETO Stack [SWR-24-81]

The WETO Stack software is a collection of data, data analysis scripts, and website content produced through the Holistic Modeling Project’s Portfolio Coordination task. The purpose of the software is to characterize the collection of wind energy software projects supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Wind Energy Technologies Office. The included data contains characteristics of the actively funded software projects, and the data analysis scripts provide insights into the breadth, depth, and maturity of the collection of software projects. The website content presents the results of the analyses as well as reports from workshops and other events. It can be viewed at https://nrel.github.io/WETOStack/index.html.

Mudafort, Rafael↗