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Semi-Supervised Learning of Lift Optimization of Multi-Element Three-Segment Variable Camber Airfoil

This chapter describes a new intelligent platform for learning optimal designs of morphing wings based on Variable Camber Continuous Trailing Edge Flaps (VCCTEF) in conjunction with a leading edge flap called the Variable Camber Krueger (VCK). The new platform consists of a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methodology coupled with a semi-supervised learning methodology. The CFD component of the intelligent platform comprises of a full Navier-Stokes solution capability (NASA OVERFLOW solver with Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model) that computes flow over a tri-element inboard NASA Generic Transport Model (GTM) wing section. Various VCCTEF/VCK settings and configurations were considered to explore optimal design for high-lift flight during take-off and landing. To determine globally optimal design of such a system, an extremely large set of CFD simulations is needed. This is not feasible to achieve in practice. To alleviate this problem, a recourse was taken to a semi-supervised learning (SSL) methodology, which is based on manifold regularization techniques. A reasonable space of CFD solutions was populated and then the SSL methodology was used to fit this manifold in its entirety, including the gaps in the manifold where there were no CFD solutions available. The SSL methodology in conjunction with an elastodynamic solver (FiDDLE) was demonstrated in an earlier study involving structural health monitoring. These CFD-SSL methodologies define the new intelligent platform that forms the basis for our search for optimal design of wings. Although the present platform can be used in various other design and operational problems in engineering, this chapter focuses on the high-lift study of the VCK-VCCTEF system. Top few candidate design configurations were identified by solving the CFD problem in a small subset of the design space. The SSL component was trained on the design space, and was then used in a predictive mode to populate a selected set of test points outside of the given design space. The new design test space thus populated was evaluated by using the CFD component by determining the error between the SSL predictions and the true (CFD) solutions, which was found to be small. This demonstrates the proposed CFD-SSL methodologies for isolating the best design of the VCK-VCCTEF system, and it holds promise for quantitatively identifying best designs of flight systems, in general.

Intelligent Systems↗

Numerical Model of the Plasma Sheath Generated by the Plasma Source Instrument Aboard the Polar Satellite

The plasma sheath generated by the operation of the Plasma Source Instrument (PSI) aboard the Polar satellite is studied by using a three-dimensional particle-in-cell (PIC) code. When the satellite passes through the region of low-density plasma, the satellite charges to positive potentials as high as 40-50 V, owing to the photoelectron emission. In such a case, ambient core ions cannot accurately be measured or detected. The goal of the onboard PSI is to reduce the floating potential of the satellite to a sufficiently low value so that the ions in the polar wind become detectable. When the PSI is operated, ion-rich xenon plasma is ejected from the satellite, such that the floating potential of the satellite is reduced and is maintained at approximately 2 V. Accordingly, in our three-dimensional PIC simulation we considered that the potential of the satellite is 2 V as a fixed bias. Considering the relatively high density of the xenon plasma in the sheath (10-10(exp 3)/cc), the ambient plasma of low density (<1/cc) is neglected. In the simulations the electric fields and plasma dynamics are calculated self-consistently. We found that an 'apple'-shape positive potential sheath forms surrounding the satellite. In the region near the PSI emission a high positive potential hill develops. Near the Thermal Ion Dynamics Experiment detector away from the PSI, the potentials are sufficiently low for the ambient polar wind ions to reach it. In the simulations it takes only about a couple of tens of electron gyroperiods for the sheath to reach a quasi steady state. This time is approximately the time taken by the heavy Xe(+) ions to expand up to about one average Larmor radius of electrons from the satellite surface. After this time the expansion of the sheath in directions transverse to the ambient magnetic field slows down because the electrons are magnetized. Using the quasi steady sheath, we performed trajectory calculations to characterize the detector response to a highly supersonic polar wind flow. The detected ions' velocity distribution shows significant deviations from a shifted Maxwellian in the ambient polar wind population. The deviations are caused by the effects of electric fields on the ions' motion as they traverse the sheath.

Singh, N.↗

A Survey of Small-Scale Waves and Wave-Like Phenomena in Jupiter’s Atmosphere Detected by JunoCam

In the first 20 orbits of the Juno spacecraft around Jupiter, we have identified a variety of wave‐like features in images made by its public‐outreach camera, JunoCam. Because of Juno's unprecedented and repeated proximity to Jupiter's cloud tops during its close approaches, JunoCam has detected more wave structures than any previous surveys. Most of the waves appear in long wave packets, oriented east‐west and populated by narrow wave crests. Spacing between crests were measured as small as ~30 km, shorter than any previously measured. Some waves are associated with atmospheric features, but others are not ostensibly associated with any visible cloud phenomena and thus may be generated by dynamical forcing below the visible cloud tops. Some waves also appear to be converging, and others appear to be overlapping, possibly at different atmospheric levels. Another type of wave has a series of fronts that appear to be radiating outward from the center of a cyclone. Most of these waves appear within 5° of latitude from the equator, but we have detected waves covering planetocentric latitudes between 20°S and 45°N. The great majority of the waves appear in regions associated with prograde motions of the mean zonal flow. Juno was unable to measure the velocity of wave features to diagnose the wave types due to its close and rapid flybys. However, both by our own upper limits on wave motions and by analogy with previous measurements, we expect that the waves JunoCam detected near the equator are inertia‐gravity waves.

Lunar and Planetary Science and Exploration↗

"Ultra"-Fast Fracture Strength of Advanced Structural Ceramic Materials Studied at Elevated Temperatures

The accurate determination of inert strength is important in reliable life prediction of structural ceramic components. At ambient temperature, the inert strength of a brittle material is typically regarded as free of the effects of slow crack growth due to stress corrosion. Therefore, the inert strength can be determined either by eliminating active species, especially moisture, with an appropriate inert medium, or by using a very high test rate. However, at elevated temperatures, the concept or definition of the inert strength of brittle ceramic materials is not clear, since temperature itself is a degrading environment, resulting in strength degradation through slow crack growth and/or creep. Since the mechanism to control strength is rate-dependent viscous flow, the only conceivable way to determine the inert strength at elevated temperatures is to utilize a very fast test rate that either minimizes the time for or eliminates slow crack growth. Few experimental studies have measured the elevated-temperature, inert (or "ultra"-fast fracture) strength of advanced ceramics. At the NASA Lewis Research Center, an experimental study was initiated to better understand the "ultra"-fast fracture strength behavior of advanced ceramics at elevated temperatures. Fourteen advanced ceramics - one alumina, eleven silicon nitrides, and two silicon carbides - have been tested using constant stress-rate (dynamic fatigue) testing in flexure with a series of stress rates including the "ultra"-fast stress rate of 33 000 MPa/sec with digitally controlled test frames. The results for these 14 advanced ceramics indicate that, notwithstanding possible changes in flaw populations as well as flaw configurations because of elevated temperatures, the strength at 33 000 MPa/sec approached the room-temperature strength or reached a higher value than that determined at the conventional test rate of 30 MPa/sec. On the basis of the experimental data, it can be stated that the elevated-temperature, inert strength of an advanced ceramic material can be defined as the strength where no slow crack growth takes place at the temperature.

Choi, Sung R.↗

Parabolic heavy ion flow in the polar magnetosphere

Recent observations by the Dynamics Explorer 1 satellite over the dayside polar cap magnetosphere have indicated downward flows of heavy ions such as O(+), O(2+), N(+), and N(2+) with flow velocities of the order 1 km/s (Lockwood et al., 1985). These downward flows were interpreted as the result of 'parabolic' flow of these heavy ionospheric ions from a source region associated with the polar cleft topside ionosphere. Here, a two-dimensional kinetic model is utilized to elicit features of the transport of very low energy O(+) ions from the cleft ionosphere. Bulk parameter (density, flux, thermal energies, etc.) distributions in the noon-midnight meridian plane illustrate the effects of varying convection electric fields and source energies. The results illustrate that, particularly under conditions of weak convection electric fields and weak ion heating in the cleft region, much of the intermediate altitude polar cap magnetosphere may be populated by downward flowing heavy ions. It is further shown how two-dimensional transport effects may alter the characteristic vertical profiles of densities and fluxes from ordinary profiles computed in one-dimensional steady-state models.

Horwitz, J. L.↗

Numerical Model of the Plasma Sheath Generated by the Plasma Source Instrument Aboard the Polar Satellite

The plasma sheath generated by the operation of the Plasma Source Instrument (PSI) aboard the POLAR satellite is studied by using a 3-dimensional Particle-In-Cell (PIC) code. When the satellite passes through the region of low density plasma, the satellite charges to positive potentials as high as 4050Volts due to the photoelectrons emission. In such a case, ambient core ions cannot accurately be measured or detected. The goal of the onboard PSI is to reduce the floating potential of the satellite to a sufficiently low value so that the ions in the polar wind become detectable. When the PSI is operated, an ion-rich Xenon plasma is ejected from the satellite, such that the floating potential of the satellite is reduced and is maintained at about 2Volts. Accordingly, in our 3-dimensional PIC simulation, we considered that the potential of the satellite is 2Volts as a fixed bias. Considering the relatively high density of the Xenon plasma in the sheath (approx. 10 - 10(exp 3)/cc), the ambient plasma of low density (less than 1/cc) is neglected. In the simulations, the electric fields and plasma dynamics are calculated self-consistently. We found that an "Apple" shape positive potential sheath forms surrounding the satellite. In the region near the PSI emission, a high positive potential hill develops. Near the Thermal Ion Detection Experiment (TIDE) detector away from the PSI, the potentials are sufficiently low for the ambient polar wind ions to reach it. In the simulations, it takes about a hundred electron gyroperiods for the sheath to reach a quasi-steady state. This time is approximately the time taken by the heavy Xe(+) ions to expand up to about one average Larmor radius of electrons from the satellite surface. Using the steady state sheath, we performed trajectory calculations to characterize the detector response to a highly supersonic polar wind flow. The detected ions' velocity distribution shows significant deviations from a shifted Maxwellian in the ambient polar wind population. The deviations are caused by the effects of electric fields on the ions' motion as they traverse the sheath.

Leung, Wing C.↗

On Doppler Shift and Its Center-To-Limb Variation in Active Regions in the Transition Region

A comprehensive understanding of the structure of Doppler motions in the transition region including the center-to-limb variation and its relationship with the magnetic field structure is vital for the understanding of mass and energy transfer in the solar atmosphere. In this paper, we have performed such a study in an active region using the Si IV 1394 Å emission line recorded by the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph and the line-of-sight photospheric magnetic field obtained by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager onboard the Solar Dynamics Observatory. The active region has two opposite polarity strong field regions separated by a weak field corridor, which widened as the active region evolved. On average, the strong field regions (corridor) show(s) redshifts of 5–10 (3–9) km s(exp -1) (depending on the date of observation). There is, however, a narrow lane in the middle of the corridor with near-zero Doppler shifts at all disk positions, suggesting that any flows there are very slow. The Doppler velocity distributions in the corridor seem to have two components—a low velocity component centered near 0 km s(exp -1) and a high-velocity component centered near 10 km s(exp -1). The high-velocity component is similar to the velocity distributions in the strong field regions, which have just one component. Both exhibit a small center-to-limb variation and seem to come from the same population of flows. To explain these results, we suggest that the emission from the lower transition region comes primarily from warm type II spicules, and we introduce the idea of a “chromospheric wall”—associated with classical cold spicules—to account for a diminished center-to-limb variation.

Ghosh, Avyarthana↗

Simulated Seasonal Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Soil Moisture, Temperature, and Net Radiation in a Deciduous Forest

The temperature and moisture regimes in a forest are key components in the forest ecosystem dynamics. Observations and studies indicate that the internal temperature distribution and moisture content of the tree influence not only growth and development, but onset and cessation of cambial activity [1], resistance to insect predation[2], and even affect the population dynamics of the insects [3]. Moreover, temperature directly affects the uptake and metabolism of population from the soil into the tree tissue [4]. Additional studies show that soil and atmospheric temperatures are significant parameters that limit the growth of trees and impose treeline elevation limitation [5]. Directional thermal infrared radiance effects have long been observed in natural backgrounds [6]. In earlier work, we illustrated the use of physically-based models to simulate directional effects in thermal imaging [7-8]. In this paper, we illustrated the use of physically-based models to simulate directional effects in thermal, and net radiation in a adeciduous forest using our recently developed three-dimensional, macro-scale computational tool that simulates the heat and mass transfer interaction in a soil-root-stem systems (SRSS). The SRSS model includes the coupling of existing heat and mass transport tools to stimulate the diurnal internal and external temperatures, internal fluid flow and moisture distribution, and heat flow in the system.

Ballard, Jerrell R., Jr.↗

Global Geospace Science (GGS)/POLAR Thermal Ion Dynamics Experiments (TIDE) Co-Investigator Program: Mission Operations and Data Analysis (MO/DA)

We have pursued several investigations using the Polar/TIDE data set. The first was a comparison of TIDE high-altitude observations with similar ion flux signatures in the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) magnetospheric plasma analyzer (MPA) data. There are several geosynchronously orbiting satellites with LANL MPA instruments onboard. When the satellite is immersed in fresh plasma sheet electrons, the spacecraft voltage drops to several hundred volts negative, and cold ions are accelerated in to the detector. In the LANL MPA spectrograms, the accelerated cold ions appear as a bright, narrow line, following the voltage of the spacecraft. This "ion line" is seen regularly on the nightside, but has not received much attention. The Polar TIDE observations indicated a ubiquitous "lobal wind" in the near-- magnetotail, a field-aligned stream of approx. 100 eV ions flowing out of both polar ionospheres. The interesting result of this research is that the MPA ion line is also peaked in the field-aligned direction, even though the potential well should be uniform in all directions. It is believed that this is evidence that the lobal winds not only populate the high-latitude lobes, but fill the lobes all the way in to the near-Earth plasma sheet (the location of geosynchronous orbit). This activity developed into a full-scale survey of the lobal wind observations in the TIDE database. The universality of these observations with respect to local time and solar wind conditions implies that the ionospheric outflow is supplying the near-Earth plasma sheet at all times, regardless of magnetic activity. We have conducted a statistical study of the characteristics of the lobal wind in these two data sets FIDE and LANL MPA), finding much similarity between them. Using these characteristics as input conditions to our inner magnetosphere ion transport model, we have conducted simulations of the flow of these particles inside of geosynchronous orbit to show the impact these particles will have on the near-Earth space environment. As the study has progressed, these results have been presented several times to the TIDE team during teleconferences. It is planned to present this survey at the GEM 2004 Summer Workshop, and hopefully at additional conferences in the near future. We are presently writing a paper on the lobal wind occurrence statistics, which should be submitted in April or May to the Journal of Geophysical Research for publication. An undergraduate student at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, Will Maddox, working at NASA MSFC with Dr. Paul Craven, is presently creating a database of the values TIDE moments for the lobal wind (under Dr. Liemohn's guidance), and this will be the focus of a follow-on paper.

Nagy, Andrew↗

Hydrodynamic Models of Line-Driven Accretion Disk Winds III: Local Ionization Equilibrium

We present time-dependent numerical hydrodynamic models of line-driven accretion disk winds in cataclysmic variable systems and calculate wind mass-loss rates and terminal velocities. The models are 2.5-dimensional, include an energy balance condition with radiative heating and cooling processes, and includes local ionization equilibrium introducing time dependence and spatial dependence on the line radiation force parameters. The radiation field is assumed to originate in an optically thick accretion disk. Wind ion populations are calculated under the assumption that local ionization equilibrium is determined by photoionization and radiative recombination, similar to a photoionized nebula. We find a steady wind flowing from the accretion disk. Radiative heating tends to maintain the temperature in the higher density wind regions near the disk surface, rather than cooling adiabatically. For a disk luminosity L (sub disk) = solar luminosity, white dwarf mass M(sub wd) = 0.6 solar mass, and white dwarf radii R(sub wd) = 0.01 solar radius, we obtain a wind mass-loss rate of M(sub wind) = 4 x 10(exp -12) solar mass yr(exp -1) and a terminal velocity of approximately 3000 km per second. These results confirm the general velocity and density structures found in our earlier constant ionization equilibrium adiabatic CV wind models. Further we establish here 2.5D numerical models that can be extended to QSO/AGN winds where the local ionization equilibrium will play a crucial role in the overall dynamics.

Pereyra, Nicolas Antonio↗

Particle Access and Charging Environments in the Lunar Wake

A plasma wake a region of low density, high temperature plasma forms on the far side of the Moon when solar wind, magnetosheath, and magnetotail plasma flows past the Moon [Manka, 1973; Ogilvie et al., 1996; Farrell et al., 1998; Halekas et al., 2005]. Ion populations in these flows typically have much smaller thermal velocity than bulk speed and are therefore excluded from the plasma wake while the large thermal electron velocity allows the lighter negatively charged particles to stream ahead of the ions into the wake. Charge separation due to electrons streaming ahead of the ions into the wake from the wake boundary establishes an ambipolar electric field which impedes the motion of electron flow and accelerates ions into the wake [Ogilvie et al., 1996; Farrell et al., 1997]. We have conducted a theoretical study of acceleration (and deceleration) of charged particles in lunar plasma environments, which investigated the mechanisms responsible for allowing solar wind entry into the lunar wake, and for producing energetic particle distributions observed within the lunar wake. To this end, the investigation utilized a macroscale 3D hybrid particle-in-cell numerical model of the interaction of the Moon with external plasma environments to compute electric fields in the lunar environment for a variety of external plasma conditions and interplanetary magnetic field orientations. Ion dynamics were attained from the hybrid code while electron dynamics were determined by considering electron test particle trajectories through the fields established in the hybrid code. Results from the code will be presented to evaluate charging environments within the lunar wake.

Parker, Linda↗

Near-infrared mapping of spiral barred galaxies

In external galaxies, near-infrared emission originates from stellar populations, hot dust, free-free emission from H+ regions, gaseous emission, non-thermal nucleus if any. Because of the low extinction compared to the visible, infrared wavelengths are useful to probe regions obscured by dust such as central parts where starburst phenomena can occur because of the large quantity of matter. The results presented were obtained with a 32 x 32 InSb charge injection device (CID) array cooled at 4K, at the f/36 cassegrain focus of the 3m60 Canada-France-Hawaii telescope with a spatial resolution of 0.5 inches per pixel. The objects presented are spiral barred galaxies mapped at J(1.25 microns), H(1.65 microns) and K(2.2 microns). The non-axisymetric potential due to the presence of a bar induces dynamical processes leading to the confinement of matter and peculiar morphologies. Infrared imaging is used to study the link between various components. Correlations with other wavelengths ranges and 2-colors diagrams ((J-H), (H-K)) lead to the identification of star forming regions, nucleus. Maps show structures connected to the central core. The question is, are they flowing away or toward the nucleus. Observations of M83 lead to several conclusions. The star forming region, detected in the visible and the infrared cannot be very compact and must extend to the edge of the matter concentration. The general shape of the near-infrared emission and the location of radio and 10 micron peaks suggest the confinement of matter between the inner Linblad resonances localized from CO measurements about 100 and 400 pc. The distribution of color indices in the arc from southern part to the star forming region suggests an increasing amount of gas and a time evolution eventually triggered by supernova explosions. Close to the direction of the bar, a bridge-like structure connects the arc to the nucleus with peculiar color indices. Perhaps, this structure can be linked to a height velocity component seen in UV and we can attribute it to a jet and/or a matter flow along the bar toward the nucleus, fuelling it. NGC 1068 is the nearest Seyfert 2 galaxy. It has been a subject of many studies at all wavelengths. This object was mapped at J, H, K, L and M, and in polaro-imagery. Results are given.

Gallais, P.↗

Exhaust Nozzle Plume Effects on Sonic Boom Test Results for Isolated Nozzles

Reducing or eliminating the operational restrictions of supersonic aircraft over populated areas has led to extensive research at NASA. Restrictions were due to the disturbance of the sonic boom, caused by the coalescence of shock waves formed off the aircraft. Recent work has been performed to reduce the magnitude of the sonic boom N-wave generated by airplane components with focus on shock waves caused by the exhaust nozzle plume. Previous Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis showed how the shock wave formed at the nozzle lip interacts with the nozzle boat-tail expansion wave. An experiment was conducted in the 1- by 1-ft Supersonic Wind Tunnel at the NASA Glenn Research Center to validate the computational study. Results demonstrated how the nozzle lip shock moved with increasing nozzle pressure ratio (NPR) and reduced the nozzle boat-tail expansion, causing a favorable change in the observed pressure signature. Experimental results were presented for comparison to the CFD results. The strong nozzle lip shock at high values of NPR intersected the nozzle boat-tail expansion and suppressed the expansion wave. Based on these results, it may be feasible to reduce the boat-tail expansion for a future supersonic aircraft with under-expanded nozzle exhaust flow by modifying nozzle pressure or nozzle divergent section geometry.

Castner, Raymond S.↗

The Chemical Composition and Gas-to-Dust Mass Ratio of Nearby Interstellar Matter

We use recent results on interstellar gas toward nearby stars and interstellar by-products within the solar system to select among the equilibrium radiative transfer models of the nearest interstellar material presented in Slavin & Frisch. For the assumption that O/H - 400 parts per million, models 2 and 8 are found to yield good fits to available data on interstellar material inside and outside of the heliosphere, with the exception of the Ne abundance in the pickup ion and anomalous cosmic-ray populations. For these models, the interstellar medium (ISM) at the entry point to the heliosphere has n(H(sup 0)) = 0.202-0.208/cu cm, n(He(sup 0) = 0.0137-0.0152/cu cm, and ionizations X(H) = 0.29-0.30, X(He) = 0.47-0.51. These best models suggest that the chemical composition of the nearby ISM is approx.60%-70% subsolar if S is undepleted. Both H(0) and H(+) need to be included when evaluating abundances of ions found in warm diffuse clouds. Models 2 and 8 yield an H filtration factor of approx.0.46. Gas-to-dust mass ratios for the ISM toward epsilon CMa are R(sub gd) = 178-183 for solar abundances of Holweger or R(sub gd) = 611-657 for an interstellar abundance standard 70% solar. Direct observations of dust grains in the solar system by Ulysses and Galileo yield R(sub gd) appr0x. 115 for models 2 and 8, supporting earlier results (Frisch and coworkers). If the local ISM abundances are subsolar, then gas and dust are decoupled over small spatial scales. The inferred variation in R(sub gd) over parsec length scales is consistent with the fact that the ISM near the Sun is part of a dynamically active cluster of cloudlets flowing away from the Sco-Cen association. Observations toward stars within approx.500 pc show that R(sub gd) correlates with the percentage of the dust mass that is carried by iron, suggesting that an Fe-rich grain core (by mass) remains after grain destruction. Evidently large dust grains (>10(exp -13) g) and small dust grains (<10(exp -13) g) are not well mixed over parsec length spatial scales in the ISM. It also appears that very small C-dominated dust grains have been destroyed in the ISM within several parsecs of the Sun, since C appears to be essentially undepleted. However, if gas-dust coupling breaks down over the cloud lifetime, the missing mass arguments applied here to determine R(sub gd) and dust grain mineralogy are not appropriate.

Frisch, Priscilla C.↗

Watershed and Hydrodynamic Modeling for Evaluating the Impact of Land Use Change on Submerged Aquatic Vegetation and Seagrasses in Mobile Bay

There is a continued need to understand how human activities along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast are impacting the natural ecosystems. The gulf coast is experiencing rapid population growth and associated land cover/land use change. Mobile Bay, AL is a designated pilot region of the Gulf of Mexico Alliance (GOMA) and is the focus area of many current NASA and NOAA studies, for example. This is a critical region, both ecologically and economically to the entire United States because it has the fourth largest freshwater inflow in the continental USA, is a vital nursery habitat for commercially and recreational important fisheries, and houses a working waterfront and port that is expanding. Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed for Mobile Bay to evaluate the impact of land use change in Mobile and Baldwin counties on the aquatic ecosystem. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for land use Scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 land use scenario based on observed trends. All land use scenarios were developed to a common land classification system developed by merging the 1992 and 2001 National Land Cover Data (NLCD). The LSPC model output provides changes in flow, temperature, sediments and general water quality for 22 discharge points into the Bay. These results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations on a grid with four vertical profiles throughout the Bay s aquatic ecosystems. The models were calibrated using in-situ data collected at sampling stations in and around Mobile bay. This phase of the project has focused on sediment modeling because of its significant influence on light attenuation which is a critical factor in the health of submerged aquatic vegetation. The impact of land use change on sediment concentrations was evaluated by analyzing the LSPC and EFDC sediment simulations for the four land use scenarios. Such analysis was also performed for storm and non-storm periods. In- situ data of total suspended sediments (TSS) and light attenuation were used to develop a regression model to estimate light attenuation from TSS. This regression model was used to derive marine light attenuation estimates throughout Mobile bay using the EFDC TSS outputs. The changes in sediment concentrations and associated impact on light attenuation in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on seagreasses and Submerged Aquatic Vegetation (SAV) habitat. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of sediments due to land use driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs.

Estes, Maurice G.↗

The Thermal Ion Dynamics Experiment and Plasma Source Instrument

The Thermal Ion Dynamics Experiment (TIDE) and the Plasma Source Instrument (PSI) have been developed in response to the requirements of the ISTP Program for three-dimensional (3D) plasma composition measurements capable of tracking the circulation of low-energy (0-500 eV) plasma through the polar magnetosphere. This plasma is composed of penetrating magnetosheath and escaping ionospheric components. It is in part lost to the downstream solar wind and in part recirculated within the magnetosphere, participating in the formation of the diamagnetic hot plasma sheet and ring current plasma populations. Significant obstacles which have previously made this task impossible include the low density and energy of the outflowing ionospheric plasma plume and the positive spacecraft floating potentials which exclude the lowest-energy plasma from detection on ordinary spacecraft. Based on a unique combination of focusing electrostatic ion optics and time of flight detection and mass analysis, TIDE provides the sensitivity (seven apertures of about 1 cm squared effective area each) and angular resolution (6 x 18 degrees) required for this purpose. PSI produces a low energy plasma locally at the POLAR spacecraft that provides the ion current required to balance the photoelectron current, along with a low temperature electron population, regulating the spacecraft potential slightly positive relative to the space plasma. TIDE/PSI will: (a) measure the density and flow fields of the solar and terrestrial plasmas within the high polar cap and magnetospheric lobes; (b) quantify the extent to which ionospheric and solar ions are recirculated within the distant magnetotail neutral sheet or lost to the distant tail and solar wind; (c) investigate the mass-dependent degree energization of these plasmas by measuring their thermodynamic properties; (d) investigate the relative roles of ionosphere and solar wind as sources of plasma to the plasma sheet and ring current.

Moore, T. E.↗

Masses and Luminosities of X-Ray Binaries

Using SIM, we will perform narrow-angle observations of several X-ray binaries to determine their orbits, and we will observe about 50 X-ray binary systems in wide-angle mode to measure their distances and proper motions. Sources with mass estimates for the compact component of greater than 3 solar masses are generally called black hole candidates since this mass is above the theoretical neutron star limit. Narrow-angle observations of these sources provide a direct test of the dynamical mass estimates on which the black hole evidence is based. Better measurements of the black hole masses will provide constraints on possible evolutionary paths that lead to black hole formation. When combined with X-ray data, mass measurements may provide additional constraints on the black hole spin. Precise mass determinations of neutron star systems can address the question of whether neutron stars can be significantly more massive than 1.4 solar masses, which would eliminate soft models of the neutron star equations of state. The wide-angle observations will probe the Galactic distribution of X-ray binaries through parallaxes and proper motions. They will also eliminate the uncertainties in the luminosities of individual sources, which is currently up to a full order of magnitude. This will enable more detailed comparisons of X-ray observations to physical models such as advection-dominated accretion flows (ADAFs). We intend to carry out the following measurements: 1) Determine the orbits of two black hole candidates to measure the black hole masses; 2) Obtain precise mass measurements for two neutron star systems to constrain neutron star equations of state; 3) Determine the distances and thus luminosities of selected representatives of various classes of X-ray binaries (black hole candidates, neutron stars, jet sources); 4) In the process of distance determination, proper motions will also be measured, from which the age of the population can be estimated.

Quirrenbach, Andreas↗

Evaluation of the 7-km GEOS-5 Nature Run

This report documents an evaluation by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) of a two-year 7-km-resolution non-hydrostatic global mesoscale simulation produced with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model. The simulation was produced as a Nature Run for conducting observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Generation of the GEOS-5 Nature Run (G5NR) was motivated in part by the desire of the OSSE community for an improved high-resolution sequel to an existing Nature Run produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which has served the community for several years. The intended use of the G5NR in this context is for generating simulated observations to test proposed observing system designs regarding new instruments and their deployments. Because NASA's interest in OSSEs extends beyond traditional weather forecasting applications, the G5NR includes, in addition to standard meteorological components, a suite of aerosol types and several trace gas concentrations, with emissions downscaled to 10 km using ancillary information such as power plant location, population density and night-light information. The evaluation exercise described here involved more than twenty-five GMAO scientists investigating various aspects of the G5NR performance, including time mean temperature and wind fields, energy spectra, precipitation and the hydrological cycle, the representation of waves, tropical cyclones and midlatitude storms, land and ocean surface characteristics, the representation and forcing effects of clouds and radiation, dynamics of the stratosphere and mesosphere, and the representation of aerosols and trace gases. Comparisons are made with observational data sets when possible, as well as with reanalyses and other long model simulations. The evaluation is broad in scope, as it is meant to assess the overall realism of basic aspects of the G5NR deemed relevant to the conduct of OSSEs. However, because of the relatively short record and other practical considerations, these comparisons cannot provide a definitive, statistically sound assessment of all model deficiencies, or guarantee the G5NR's suitability for all OSSE applications. Differences between the observed and simulated behavior also must be judged in the context of basic internal atmospheric variability which can introduce variations that are not necessarily controlled by the prescribed sea surface temperatures used in generating the G5NR. The results show that the G5NR performs well as measured by the majority of metrics applied in this evaluation. Particular benefits derived from the 7-km resolution of G5NR include realistic representations of extreme weather events in both the tropics and extratropics including tropical cyclones, Nor'easters and mesoscale convective complexes; improved representation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation over land; well-resolved surface-atmosphere interactions such as katabatic wind flows over Antarctica and Greenland; and resolution of orographically generated gravity waves that propagate into the upper atmosphere and influence the large scale circulation. Obvious deficiencies in the G5NR include a "splitting" of the inter-tropical convergence zone, which leads to a weaker-than-observed Hadley circulation and related deficiencies in the depiction of stationary wave patterns. Also, while the G5NR captures global cloud features and radiative effects well in general, close comparison with observations reveals higher-than-observed cloud brightness, likely due to an overabundance of cloud condensate; less distinct cloud minima in subtropical subsidence zones, consistent with a weak Hadley circualtion; and too few near-coastal marine stratocumulus clouds.

GEOS-5↗