Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “population count”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Prompt Gamma Analysis of ARIES Materials and Updates to the 2015 Calibration Equations

Prompt gamma (PG) analysis is a nondestructive, nuclear, elemental analysis technique that uses charged particle reactions to interrogate a sample, and elements present in the sample matrix are identified through the characteristic gamma-rays emitted from the product nuclei in alpha-p and alpha-n nuclear reactions. This technique has been applied to plutonium oxide packaged in over 4,000 individual 3013 containers, and the concentrations of certain light elements were determined from the integrated peak areas based on a calibration that was published previously. This report provides the results for a new population of 3013 containers packaged with oxide materials produced by the conversion of metal by Advanced Recovery and Integrated Extraction System (ARIES) project using the direct metal oxidation (DMO) process and muffle furnaces. New PG and analytical chemistry data collected since 2015 were added to the existing calibration data sets to refine the calibration parameters. Calibration equations were also developed for determining beryllium and fluorine at low concentrations in high-purity ARIES product oxides. The new fluorine calibration provides an order of magnitude greater sensitivity and results in an additional 1,408 containers in the original population identified as having fluorine as an impurity. Additionally, equations for calculating the lower limits of detection (LLDs) as a function of the actual counting time (live time) were obtained using WLS regression technique for samples in the calibration data set. This resulted in changes to the LLDs published previously.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Chemical clocks: using otolith geochemistry to enhance estimation of age and growth of white hake (Urophycis tenuis)

The white hake (Urophycis tenuis) is a groundfish distributed throughout the Gulf of Maine. Catch advice is based on stock assessments done with age-based population dynamics models; however, otolith aging is challenging because of unclear growth increments. To address this concern, we compared the consistency of aging with counts of visual annuli to that of aging with cycles of elemental concentrations measured by using laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. We tested the hypothesis that oscillations in both environmental conditions and internal physiology through time influence uptake of elements during otolith mineralization. Concentrations of manganese, in comparison with those of the other investigated trace elements (magnesium, strontium, and barium), had the most promising correlation with visual growth increments (~100% age agreement, ±1 year), offering an additional tool to enhance increment identification. In our examination of 550 otoliths collected during 2007–2021, we found that white hake lived a maximum of 10.3 years and exhibited sexual dimorphism in maximum length and age. By using generated von Bertalanffy growth functions, L(t)=110(1–e–0.113(t+0.45)) for males and L(t)=140(1–e–0.113(t–0.30)) for females (where L(t) is length at time t), size and age at maturity were calculated for males (37.4 cm in total length (TL), 3.3 years) and females (47.4 cm TL, 4.2 years). These results demonstrate that otolith geochemistry can be used to improve the accuracy and precision of the estimation of fish age and maturity, even for challenging species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Partially Observed Epidemics - Application to COVID-19

This report documents a statistical method for the "real-time" characterization of partially observed epidemics. Observations consist of daily counts of symptomatic patients, diagnosed with the disease. Characterization, in this context, refers to estimation of epidemiological parameters that can be used to provide short-term forecasts of the ongoing epidemic, as well as to provide gross information for the time-dependent infection rate. The characterization problem is formulated as a Bayesian inverse problem, and is predicated on a model for the distribution of the incubation period. The model parameters are estimated as distributions using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimates. The method is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, using data at the country, provincial (e.g., states) and regional (e.g. county) levels. The epidemiological model includes a stochastic component due to uncertainties in the incubation period. This model-form uncertainty is accommodated by a pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings MCMC sampler, which produces posterior distributions that reflect this uncertainty. We approximate the discrepancy between the data and the epidemiological model using Gaussian and negative binomial error models; the latter was motivated by the over-dispersed count data. For small daily counts we find the performance of the calibrated models to be similar for the two error models. For large daily counts the negative-binomial approximation is numerically unstable unlike the Gaussian error model. Application of the model at the country level (for the United States, Germany, Italy, etc.) generally provided accurate forecasts, as the data consisted of large counts which suppressed the day-to-day variations in the observations. Further, the bulk of the data is sourced over the duration before the relaxation of the curbs on population mixing, and is not confounded by any discernible country-wide second wave of infections. At the state-level, where reporting was poor or which evinced few infections (e.g., New Mexico), the variance in the data posed some, though not insurmountable, difficulties, and forecasts were able to capture the data with large uncertainty bounds. The method was found to be sufficiently sensitive to discern the flattening of the infection and epidemic curve due to shelter-in-place orders after around 90% quantile for the incubation distribution (about 10 days for COVID-19). The proposed model was also used at a regional level to compare the forecasts for the central and north-west regions of New Mexico. Modeling the data for these regions illustrated different disease spread dynamics captured by the model. While in the central region the daily counts peaked in the late April, in the north-west region the ramp-up continued for approximately three more weeks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mapathons versus automated feature extraction: a comparative analysis for strengthening immunization microplanning

Background: Social instability and logistical factors like the displacement of vulnerable populations, the difficulty of accessing these populations, and the lack of geographic information for hard-to-reach areas continue to serve as barriers to global essential immunizations (EI). Microplanning, a population-based, healthcare intervention planning method has begun to leverage geographic information system (GIS) technology and geospatial methods to improve the remote identification and mapping of vulnerable populations to ensure inclusion in outreach and immunization services, when feasible. We compare two methods of accomplishing a remote inventory of building locations to assess their accuracy and similarity to currently employed microplan line-lists in the study area. Methods: The outputs of a crowd-sourced digitization effort, or mapathon, were compared to those of a machine-learning algorithm for digitization, referred to as automatic feature extraction (AFE). The following accuracy assessments were employed to determine the performance of each feature generation method: (1) an agreement analysis of the two methods assessed the occurrence of matches across the two outputs, where agreements were labeled as “befriended” and disagreements as “lonely”; (2) true and false positive percentages of each method were calculated in comparison to satellite imagery; (3) counts of features generated from both the mapathon and AFE were statistically compared to the number of features listed in the microplan line-list for the study area; and (4) population estimates for both feature generation method were determined for every structure identified assuming a total of three households per compound, with each household averaging two adults and 5 children. Results: The mapathon and AFE outputs detected 92,713 and 53,150 features, respectively. A higher proportion (30%) of AFE features were befriended compared with befriended mapathon points (28%). The AFE had a higher true positive rate (90.5%) of identifying structures than the mapathon (84.5%). The difference in the average number of features identified per area between the microplan and mapathon points was larger (t = 3.56) than the microplan and AFE (t = -2.09) (alpha = 0.05). Conclusions: Our findings indicate AFE outputs had higher agreement (i.e., befriended), slightly higher likelihood of correctly identifying a structure, and were more similar to the local microplan line-lists than the mapathon outputs. These findings suggest AFE may be more accurate for identifying structures in high-resolution satellite imagery than mapathons. However, they both had their advantages and the ideal method would utilize both methods in tandem.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A framework for measuring weak-lensing magnification using the Fundamental Plane

ABSTRACT Galaxy–galaxy lensing is an essential tool for probing dark matter haloes and constraining cosmological parameters. While galaxy–galaxy lensing measurements usually rely on shear, weak-lensing magnification contains additional constraining information. Using the Fundamental Plane (FP) of elliptical galaxies to anchor the size distribution of a background population is one method that has been proposed for performing a magnification measurement. We present a formalism for using the FP residuals of elliptical galaxies to jointly estimate the foreground mass and background redshift errors for a stacked lens scenario. The FP residuals include information about weak-lensing magnification κ, and therefore foreground mass, since to first order, non-zero κ affects galaxy size but not other FP properties. We also present a modular, extensible code that implements the formalism using emulated galaxy catalogues of a photometric galaxy survey. We find that combining FP information with observed number counts of the source galaxies constrains mass and photo-z error parameters significantly better than an estimator that includes number counts only. In particular, the constraint on the mass is 17.0 per cent if FP residuals are included, as opposed to 27.7 per cent when only number counts are included. The effective size noise for a foreground lens of mass $M_\mathrm{ H}=10^{14}\, \mathrm{M}_\odot$, with a conservative selection function in size and surface brightness applied to the source population, is σκ, eff = 0.250. We discuss the improvements to our FP model necessary to make this formalism a practical companion to shear analyses in weak-lensing surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The effect of enrofloxacin on enteric Escherichia coli : Fitting a mathematical model to in vivo data

Antimicrobial drugs administered systemically may cause the emergence and dissemination of antimicrobial resistance among enteric bacteria. To develop logical, research-based recommendations for food animal veterinarians, we must understand how to maximize antimicrobial drug efficacy while minimizing risk of antimicrobial resistance. Our objective is to evaluate the effect of two approved dosing regimens of enrofloxacin (a single high dose or three low doses) on Escherichia coli in cattle. We look specifically at bacteria above and below the epidemiological cutoff (ECOFF), above which the bacteria are likely to have an acquired or mutational resistance to enrofloxacin. We developed a differential equation model for the antimicrobial drug concentrations in plasma and colon, and bacteria populations in the feces. The model was fit to animal data of drug concentrations in the plasma and colon obtained using ultrafiltration probes. Fecal E. coli counts and minimum inhibitory concentrations were measured for the week after receiving the antimicrobial drug. We predict that the antimicrobial susceptibility of the bacteria above the ECOFF pre-treatment strongly affects the composition of the bacteria following treatment. Faster removal of the antimicrobial drugs from the colon throughout the study leads to improved clearance of bacteria above the ECOFF in the low dose regimen. If we assume a fitness cost is associated with bacteria above the ECOFF, the increased fitness costs leads to reduction of bacteria above the ECOFF in the low dose study. These results suggest the initial E. coli susceptibility is a strong indicator of how steers respond to antimicrobial drug treatment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Photometry of Outer Solar System Objects from the Dark Energy Survey. II. A Joint Analysis of Trans-Neptunian Absolute Magnitudes, Colors, Light Curves and Dynamics

For the 696 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) with absolute magnitudes 5.5 < H r < 8.2 detected in the Dark Energy Survey, we characterize the relationships between their dynamical state and physical properties—namely H r , indicating size; colors, indicating surface composition; and flux variation semiamplitude A, indicating asphericity and surface inhomogeneity. We seek “birth” physical distributions that can recreate these parameters in every dynamical class. We show that the observed colors of these TNOs are consistent with two Gaussian distributions in griz space, “near-infrared bright” (NIRB) and “near-infrared faint” (NIRF), presumably an inner and outer birth population, respectively. We find a model in which both the NIRB and NIRF H r and A distributions are independent of current dynamical states, supporting their assignment as birth populations. All objects are consistent with a common rolling p(H r ), but NIRF objects are significantly more variable. Cold classicals (CCs) are purely NIRF, while hot classical (HC), scattered, and detached TNOs are consistent with ≈ 70% NIRB and the resonance NIRB fractions show significant variation. The NIRB components of the HCs and of some resonances have broader inclination distributions than the NIRFs, i.e. their current dynamics retains information about birth location. We find evidence for radial stratification within the birth NIRB population, in that HC NIRBs are on average redder than detached or scattered NIRBs; a similar effect distinguishes CCs from other NIRFs. We estimate total object counts and masses of each class within our H r range. These results will strongly constrain models of the outer solar system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The SRG/eROSITA All-Sky Survey: Dark Energy Survey year 3 weak gravitational lensing by eRASS1 selected galaxy clusters

Context. Number counts of galaxy clusters across redshift are a powerful cosmological probe if a precise and accurate reconstruction of the underlying mass distribution is performed – a challenge called mass calibration. With the advent of wide and deep photometric surveys, weak gravitational lensing (WL) by clusters has become the method of choice for this measurement. Aims. We measured and validated the WL signature in the shape of galaxies observed in the first three years of the Dark Energy Survey (DES Y3) caused by galaxy clusters and groups selected in the first all-sky survey performed by SRG (Spectrum Roentgen Gamma)/eROSITA (eRASS1). These data were then used to determine the scaling between the X-ray photon count rate of the clusters and their halo mass and redshift. Methods. We empirically determined the degree of cluster member contamination in our background source sample. The individual cluster shear profiles were then analyzed with a Bayesian population model that self-consistently accounts for the lens sample selection and contamination and includes marginalization over a host of instrumental and astrophysical systematics. To quantify the accuracy of the mass extraction of that model, we performed mass measurements on mock cluster catalogs with realistic synthetic shear profiles. This allowed us to establish that hydrodynamical modeling uncertainties at low lens redshifts (z < 0.6) are the dominant systematic limitation. At high lens redshift, the uncertainties of the sources’ photometric redshift calibration dominate. Results. With regard to the X-ray count rate to halo mass relation, we determined its amplitude, its mass trend, the redshift evolution of the mass trend, the deviation from self-similar redshift evolution, and the intrinsic scatter around this relation. Conclusions. The mass calibration analysis performed here sets the stage for a joint analysis with the number counts of eRASS1 clusters to constrain a host of cosmological parameters. We demonstrate that WL mass calibration of galaxy clusters can be performed successfully with source galaxies whose calibration was performed primarily for cosmic shear experiments, opening the way for the cluster cosmological exploitation of future optical and NIR surveys like Euclid and LSST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Constraining dark matter microphysics with the annihilation signal from subhalos

In the cold dark matter scenario, galactic dark matter halos are populated with a large number of smaller subhalos. Previous work has shown that dark matter annihilations in subhalos can generate a distinctive, non-Poisson signal in the gamma-ray photon counts probability distribution function (PDF). Here we show that the gamma-ray PDF also carries information about the velocity dependence of the dark matter annihilation cross section. After calculating the PDF assuming s-wave and Sommerfeld-enhanced annihilation, we perform a mock data analysis to illustrate how current and future observations can constrain the microphysics of the dark matter annihilation. We find that, with current Fermi data, and assuming a dark matter annihilation cross section roughly at the limit of current bounds from annihilation in dwarf spheroidal galaxies, one can potentially distinguish the non-Poissonian fluctuations expected from dark matter annihilation in subhalos from Poisson sources, as well as from dark matter models with an incorrect velocity-dependence. Here we explore how robust these results are to assumptions about the modeling of the galactic gamma-ray background, but further work is needed to determine the impact of realistic astrophysical source populations on our results. We also point out a four-parameter degeneracy between the velocity dependence of the dark matter annihilation, the minimum subhalo mass, the power law index of the subhalo mass function, and the normalization of the dark matter signal. This degeneracy can be broken with priors from N-body simulations or from observational constraints on the subhalo mass function.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pulsed-Neutron Die-Away Response of H 2 O Targets to a D-T Generator Pulse

Pulsed-neutron die-away (PNDA) experiments were completed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The goal of these experiments was to provide a benchmark to validate thermal neutron scattering laws of H 2 O. The experiment was conducted with a deuterium-tritium (D-T) neutron generator producing pulses of 14.1 MeV neutrons that impinged on a moderating target. The neutrons scattered and thermalized within the target and were counted as a function of time using Helium-3 ( 3 He) detectors that surrounded the target. These data provide a time-decay profile of the neutron population from which the time eigenvalue of the experiment is calculated. The time eigenvalue quantity α represents the integral parameter of interest. This report describes the measurements for H 2 O targets. The measurements were conducted over several days beginning on October 23rd, 2023. All measurements were completed at the low-scatter facility at LLNL. The evaluation identifier is FUND-LLNL-DT-H2O-PNDA-001.

3He Detectors↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bird Species Use of Bioenergy Croplands in Illinois, USA—Can Advanced Switchgrass Cultivars Provide Suitable Habitats for Breeding Grassland Birds?

Grassland birds have sustained significant population declines in the United States through habitat loss, and replacing lost grasslands with bioenergy production areas could benefit these species and the ecological services they provide. Point count surveys and autonomous acoustic monitoring were used at two field sites in Illinois, USA, to determine if an advanced switchgrass cultivar that is being used for bioenergy feedstock production could provide suitable habitats for grassland and other bird species. At the Brighton site, the bird use of switchgrass plots was compared to that of corn plots during the breeding seasons of 2020–2022. At the Urbana site, the bird use of restored prairie, switchgrass, and Miscanthus × giganteus was studied in the 2022 breeding season. At Brighton, Common Yellowthroat, Dickcissel, Grasshopper Sparrow, and Sedge Wren occurred on switchgrass plots more often than on corn; Common Yellowthroat and Dickcissel increased on experimental plots as the perennial switchgrass increased in height and density over the study period; and the other two species declined over the same period. At Urbana, Dickcissel was most frequent in prairie and switchgrass; Common Yellowthroat was most frequent in miscanthus and switchgrass. These findings suggest that advanced switchgrass cultivars could provide suitable habitats for grassland birds, replace lost habitats, and contribute to the recovery of these vulnerable species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Bird Strike Likelihood to Refine Bird Strike Risk Models

In its most basic form, bird strike risk is comprised of a frequency component that reflects the likelihood of a collision and a severity component that reflects the cost (monetary or otherwise) of the incident. The bird strike risk model currently used by United State Department of Agriculture (USDA) Wildlife Services to evaluate the risk posed by individual bird species at airports and establish priorities for management was developed in 2018. The model uses airport-specific data on the number of reported strikes for a species recorded in the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)’s National Wildlife Strike Database as a measure of frequency and the species’ relative hazard score as a measure of severity. The model was tested against independent data, found to perform well overall, and is being implemented widely across the United States. However, the model has limitations, including that species known to pose risk to aircraft locally, but not present in the strike record database, are not reflected as a major component of risk. Standard bird survey methodology commonly used at airports (e.g. point counts or transects) potentially can be used to complement wildlife strike records to calculate frequency or relative abundance of species. However, these methods generally focus on airport-wide population estimation and often ignore vital information that contributes to the true likelihood of a strike, such as use of runway protection zones and other critical areas, and spatial and temporal overlap with departing or approaching aircraft. As such, a more detailed understanding of space use by birds across landcovers and population fluctuations across the year is needed to accurately estimate the likelihood of bird strikes at airports. In this manuscript, we will review the extant risk model, including a discussion on its limitations. We then discuss approaches for refining our understanding of strike likelihood and briefly touch on needs for estimating probability of strike severity (cost).

bird strike, aircraft collision, damage by wildlif↗
DOE OSTI2022

Predicted performance of a tangential viewing hard x-ray camera for the DIII-D high field side lower hybrid current drive experiment

High field side launch of lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) has improved accessibility and penetration over low field side launch on DIII-D. Simulations predict single pass absorption under a wide range of plasma conditions. Hard x-ray (HXR) measurement of LHCD generated fast electron bremsstrahlung (50–250 keV) will validate wave propagation and absorption. Emissivity profiles are recovered from one-dimensional inversion of HXR brightness to determine LH damping location, fast electron slowing down time, and some indication of the fast electron energy. The camera will be implemented by populating 32 tangential sightlines of the existing Gamma Ray Imager with Kromek SPEARTM Cadmium Zinc Telluride (CZT) detectors sensitive to 10–1000 keV photons with 10 keV energy resolution. Expected count rates allow for <0.5 ms time resolution. Pulses are processed using 50 ns shaping time Cremat CR-200 Gaussian shaping modules and are digitized by 25 MHz D-TACQ ACQ216 digitizers. The performance of the HXR camera is evaluated by comparing predicted fast electron density profiles and inverted synthetic brightnesses obtained from the ray-tracing/Fokker–Planck codes GENRAY/CQL3D. Inversions closely matched predicted fast electron profiles for a range of experimental parameters.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

State-Space Model to Estimate Salmon Escapement Using Multiple Data Sources

Abstract Accurate estimates of salmonids passing Lower Granite Dam on the Snake River, by species and origin, are a critical input to assessing the status and trends of various populations as well as successful management of fisheries in the Snake River basin. Here, we describe a state-space model that estimates such escapement past a dam by using window counts, PIT tag observations, and data from an adult fish trap, accounting for issues such as nighttime passage, fallback and reascension, potential observation error at the window, and uncertainty in the adult trap rate. We tested the approach using a simulation framework that mimicked several levels of observation error, differences between nighttime passage and reascension rates, and the possibility of the adult trap being closed for some period of time. Our results demonstrate that the model produced unbiased estimates across all tested scenarios. We also applied this model to empirical data from Lower Granite Dam to produce estimates of wild, clipped hatchery, and unclipped hatchery spring/summer-run Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and steelhead O. mykiss from spawn years 2010–2019.

See, Kevin E. (ORCID:0000000297626442)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Genetic analyses of leaf traits in an interspecific Zoysia japonica × Zoysia matrella F2 population

Zoysiagrass (Zoysia spp.) is an important warm-season turfgrass cultivated across tropical, subtropical, and temperate regions of the world. The genus is characterized by the presence of salt-secreting glands on the adaxial leaf surface, which contribute to its high salt tolerance. In this study, we analyzed an interspecific F2 population, derived from selfing an F1 from a cross between Z. japonica acc. Meyer and Z. matrella acc. PI 231146, for variation in adaxial salt gland density, leaf width, and vein count. Using composite interval mapping with a previously constructed genetic map as a framework, we identified three quantitative trait loci (QTL) for leaf width, two QTL for vein count, and two QTL for salt gland density. We complemented the QTL analysis with bulked segregant RNA-seq (BSR-seq) to identify shared genomic regions and candidate genes for leaf width and salt gland density. BSR-seq identified four trait-associated regions, but only a single region identified for leaf width on Chr08 overlapped with a QTL for the same trait. We highlight putative candidate genes underlying the leaf width and salt gland density QTL and discuss their potential roles in leaf development. Together, the QTL and candidate genes provide an important resource for breeding stress-resilient Zoysia germplasm.

Pradhan, Shreena [University of Georgia, Athens]↗
DOE OSTI2025

DAmodel: hierarchical Bayesian modelling of DA white dwarfs for spectrophotometric calibration

We use hierarchical Bayesian modelling to calibrate a network of 32 all-sky faint DA white dwarf (DA WD) spectrophotometric standards (⁠16.5 < V , 19.5⁠) alongside three CALSPEC standards, from 912 Å to 32 μm. The framework is the first of its kind to jointly infer photometric zero points and WD parameters (surface gravity log g⁠, effective temperature T eff ⁠, extinction A V ⁠, dust relation parameter R V ) by simultaneously modelling both photometric and spectroscopic data. We model panchromatic Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 (HST/WFC3) UVIS and IR photometry, HST/STIS UV spectroscopy, and ground-based optical spectroscopy to sub-per cent precision. Photometric residuals for the sample are the lowest yet yielding < 0.004 mag RMS on average from the UV to the NIR, achieved by jointly inferring time-dependent changes in system sensitivity and WFC3/IR count-rate nonlinearity. Our GPU-accelerated implementation enables efficient sampling via Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, critical for exploring the high-dimensional posterior space. The hierarchical nature of the model enables population analysis of intrinsic WD and dust parameters. Inferred spectral energy distributions from this model will be essential for calibrating the James Webb Space Telescope as well as next-generation surveys, including Vera Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time and the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope.

methods: statistical↗
DOE OSTI2022

BASS. XXXIII. Swift-BAT Blazars and Their Jets through Cosmic Time

We derive the most up-to-date Swift-Burst Alert Telescope (BAT) blazar luminosity function in the 14–195 keV range, making use of a clean sample of 118 blazars detected in the BAT 105 month survey catalog, with newly obtained redshifts from the BAT Active Galatic Nucleus Spectroscopic Survey. We determine the best-fit X-ray luminosity function for the whole blazar population, as well as for flat-spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs) alone. The main results are: (1) at any redshift, BAT detects the most luminous blazars, above any possible break in their luminosity distribution, which means we cannot differentiate between density and luminosity evolution; (2) the whole blazar population, dominated by FSRQs, evolves positively up to redshift z ~ 4.3, confirming earlier results and implying lower number densities of blazars at higher redshifts than previously estimated. The contribution of this source class to the cosmic X-ray background at 14–195 keV can range from 5%–18%, while possibly accounting for 100% of the MeV background. We also derived the average 14 keV–10 GeV spectral energy distribution for BAT blazars, which allows us to predict the number counts of sources in the MeV range, as well as the expected number of high-energy (>100 TeV) neutrinos. A mission like COSI will detect 40 MeV blazars, of which two may have coincident neutrino detections. Finally, taking into account beaming selection effects, the distribution and properties of the parent population of these extragalactic jets are derived. We find that the distribution of viewing angles is quite narrow, with most sources aligned within <5° of the line of sight. Moreover, the average Lorentz factor, $\langle$Γ$\rangle$ = 8–12, is lower than previously suggested for these powerful sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Legacies of precipitation influence primary production in Panicum virgatum

Precipitation is a key driver of primary production worldwide, but primary production does not always track year-to-year variation in precipitation linearly. Instead, plant responses to changes in precipitation may exhibit time lags, or legacies of past precipitation. Legacies can be driven by multiple mechanisms, including persistent changes in plant physiological and morphological traits and changes to the physical environment, such as plant access to soil water. Here, we used three precipitation manipulation experiments in central Texas, USA to evaluate the magnitude, duration, and potential mechanisms driving precipitation legacies on aboveground primary production of the perennial C 4 grass, Panicum virgatum. Specifically, we performed a rainout shelter study, where eight genotypes grew under different precipitation regimes; a transplant study, where plants that had previously grown in a rainout shelter under different precipitation regimes were moved to a common environment; and a mesocosm study, where the effect of swapping precipitation regime was examined with a single genotype. Across these experiments, plants previously grown under wet conditions generally performed better than expected when exposed to drought. Panicum virgatum exhibited stronger productivity legacies of past wet years on current-year responses to drought than of past dry years on current-year responses to wet conditions. Additionally, previous year tiller counts, a proxy for meristem availability, were important in determining legacy effects on aboveground production. As climate changes and precipitation extremes—both dry and wet—become more common, these results suggest that populations of P. virgatum may become less resilient.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗