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At least 73 records · Page 4

Chaos in the sunspot cycle - Analysis and prediction

The variability of solar activity over long time scales, given semiquantitatively by measurements of sunspot numbers, is examined as a nonlinear dynamical system. First, a discussion of the data set used and the techniques utilized to reduce the noise and capture the long-term dynamics inherent in the data is presented. Subsequently, an attractor is reconstructed from the data set using the method of time delays. The reconstructed attractor is then used to determine both the dimension of the underlying system and also the largest Lyapunov exponent, which together indicate that the sunspot cycle is indeed chaotic and also low dimensional. In addition, recent techniques of exploiting chaotic dynamics to provide accurate, short-term predictions are utilized in order to improve upon current forecasting methods and also to place theoretical limits on predictability extent. The results are compared to chaotic solar-dynamo models as a possible physically motivated source of this chaotic behavior.

Mundt, Michael D.↗

The calculation of theoretical chromospheric models and the interpretation of solar spectra from rockets and spacecraft

Since the early 1970s we have been developing the extensive computer programs needed to construct models of the solar atmosphere and to calculate detailed spectra for use in the interpretation of solar observations. This research involves two major related efforts: work by Avrett and Loeser on the Pandora computer program for non-LTE modeling of the solar atmosphere including a wide range of physical processes, and work by Kurucz on the detailed synthesis of the solar spectrum based on opacity data for over 58 million atomic and molecular lines. Our goals are to determine models of the various features observed on the Sun (sunspots, different components of quiet and active regions, and flares) by means of physically realistic models, and to calculate detailed spectra at all wavelengths that match observations of those features. These two goals are interrelated: discrepancies between calculated and observed spectra are used to determine improvements in the structure of the models, and in the detailed physical processes used in both the model calculations and the spectrum calculations. The atmospheric models obtained in this way provide not only the depth variation of various atmospheric parameters, but also a description of the internal physical processes that are responsible for non-radiative heating, and for solar activity in general.

Avrett, Eugene H.↗

The Calculation of Theoretical Chromospheric Models and the Interpretation of the Solar Spectrum

Since the early 1970s we have been developing the extensive computer programs needed to construct models of the solar atmosphere and to calculate detailed spectra for use in the interpretation of solar observations. This research involves two major related efforts: work by Avrett and Loeser on the Pandora computer program for non-LTE modeling of the solar atmosphere including a wide range of physical processes, and work by Rurucz on the detailed synthesis of the solar spectrum based on opacity data or over 58 million atomic and molecular lines. our goals are: to determine models of the various features observed on the Sun (sunspots, different components of quiet and active regions, and flares) by means of physically realistic models, and to calculate detailed spectra at all wavelengths that match observations of those features. These two goals are interrelated: discrepancies between calculated and observed spectra are used to determine improvements in the structure of the models, and in the detailed physical processes used in both the model calculations and the spectrum calculations. The atmospheric models obtained in this way provide not only the depth variation of various atmospheric parameters, but also a description of the internal physical processes that are responsible for non-radiative heating, and for solar activity in general.

Avrett, Eugene H.↗

Force-free magnetic fields - Generating functions and footpoint displacements

This paper presents analytic and numerical calculations that explore equilibrium sequences of bipolar force-free magnetic fields in relation to displacments of their magnetic footpoints. It is shown that the appearance of magnetic islands - sometimes interpreted as marking the loss of equilibrium in models of the solar atmosphere - is likely associated only with physically unrealistic footpoint displacements such as infinite separation or 'tearing' of the model photosphere. The work suggests that the loss of equilibrium in bipolar configurations, sometimes proposed as a mechanism for eruptive solar events, probably requires either fully three-dimensional field configurations or nonzero plasma pressure. The results apply only to fields that are strictly bipolar, and do not rule out equilibrium loss in more complex structures such as quadrupolar fields.

Wolfson, Richard↗

Model development for Ulysses and SOHO

The purpose of this research is to provide scientific expertise in solar physics and in the development and use of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of coronal structures for the computation of Lyman alpha scattered radiation in these structures. The specific objectives will be to run MHD models with new boundary conditions and compute resulting scattered solar Lyman alpha intensities, guided by results from the first series of boundary conditions.

Wu, S. T.↗

Ion-Neutral Coupling in Solar Prominence

Coupling between ions and neutrals in magnetized plasmas is fundamentally important to many aspects of heliophysics, including our ionosphere, the solar chromosphere, the solar wind interaction with planetary atmospheres, and the interface between the heliosphere and the interstellar medium. Ion-neutral coupling also plays a major role in the physics of solar prominences. By combining theory, modeling, and observations we are working toward a better understanding of the structure and dynamics of partially ionized prominence plasma. Two key questions are addressed in the present work: 1) what physical mechanism(s) sets the cross-field scale of prominence threads? 2) Are ion-neutral interactions responsible for the vertical flows and structure in prominences? We present initial results from a study investigating what role ion-neutral interactions play in prominence dynamics and structure. This research was supported by NASA.

Gilbert, H.↗

Steady state flow/field model of solar wind interaction with Venus - Global implications of local effects

Physical and chemical processes in the Venus ionosphere driven by the interaction of the solar wind with the atmosphere of Venus are described, and a model describing the interrelationships of these processes in a self-consistent manner is formulated. It is shown that the magnetic field configuration of the ionosphere is a steady state global structure which results from a combination of a large-scale 'open' current system connecting through the ionopause to the postshock solar wind and two small-scale 'closed' current systems entirely confined within the ionosphere and generated by ionospheric flows and shears. A previously detected ionospheric layer in O2(+) near 170 km altitude is shown to be a new type of ionospheric layer resulting from transition of solar-wind-driven vertical flow to velocities approaching Mach 1.

Cloutier, P. A.↗

Physics of the interaction of the solar wind with the ionosphere of Venus - Flow/field models

Venus deflects incident solar wind by means of thermal and magnetic pressure, both of which are produced by ionospheric currents that are in turn driven by pressure gradients and electric fields induced in the ionosphere by the flowing magnetized solar wind plasma. The ionospheric currents connect across the ionopause into the ionosheath region, and close on, and behind, the bow shock. The computed ionospheric plasma velocity distribution is found to be spatially asymmetric, with the fastest flow velocities lying perpendicular to the ionospheric magnetic fields. Computations also indicate that the ionosphere is susceptible to an MHD shear instability whose extent and location is a function of external solar wind conditions. The present Venus ionosphere model compares well with in situ Pioneer Venus Orbiter observations.

Cloutier, P. A.↗

Additional application of the NASCAP code. Volume 2: SEPS, ion thruster neutralization and electrostatic antenna model

The interactions of spacecraft systems with the surrounding plasma environment were studied analytically for three cases of current interest: calculating the impact of spacecraft generated plasmas on the main power system of a baseline solar electric propulsion stage (SEPS), modeling the physics of the neutralization of an ion thruster beam by a plasma bridge, and examining the physical and electrical effects of orbital ambient plasmas on the operation of an electrostatically controlled membrane mirror. In order to perform these studies, the NASA charging analyzer program (NASCAP) was used as well as several other computer models and analytical estimates. The main result of the SEPS study was to show how charge exchange ion expansion can create a conducting channel between the thrusters and the solar arrays. A fluid-like model was able to predict plasma potentials and temperatures measured near the main beam of an ion thruster and in the vicinity of a hollow cathode neutralizer. Power losses due to plasma currents were shown to be substantial for several proposed electrostatic antenna designs.

Katz, I.↗

Physics of the inner heliosphere: Mechanisms, models and observational signatures

The physics of the solar wind acceleration phenomena (e.g. effect of transient momentum deposition on the temporal and spatial variation of the temperature, density and flow speed of the solar wind, formation of shocks, etc.) and the resultant effects on observational signatures, particularly spectroscopic signature are studied. Phenomena under study include: (1) wave motions, particularly spectroscopic signatures are studied. Phenomena under study include:(1) wave motions, particularly Alfven and fast mode waves, (2) the formation of standing shocks in the inner heliosphere as a result of momentum and/or heat addition to the wind and (3) coronal transient phenomena where momentum and/or heat are deposited in the corona to produce transient plasma heating and/or mass ejections. Also included are the theoretical investigation of spectroscopic plasma diagnostics for the inner heliosphere and the analysis of existing Skylab and other relevant data.

Withbroe, G. L.↗

Turbulent heating of colliding streams in the solar wind.

Turbulent heating of colliding plasma streams has previously been observed in the solar wind. The original data were interpreted in terms of a fluid model. It is contended that a plasma-kinetic description is the more appropriate theoretical approach and is necessary in order to better understand the microscopic physical phenomena that underlie all fluid models. Microscopic solar-wind parameters characteristic of conditions during the observations were used, together with the quasi-linear plasma-kinetic theory, to compute the expected magnetic field and temperature enhancements in the interaction region between two counterstreaming plasma beams. The physical mechanism of excitation is the electromagnetic two-stream instability in which Alfven waves are unstable. A total field in the interaction region of about 8 gamma and a change in temperature of about 100,000 K are obtained.

Goldstein, M. L.↗

Research study: Studies in atmospheric processes from Space Platforms

Activities of the project for studies in atmospheric processes from space platforms are described. Topics include feasibility studies for a Low Altitude Research Satellite system, a satellite borne Doppler lidar wind monitoring system, the relationship between solar variability and weather, atmospheric modeling, cloud physics, and aerosol studies.

Source record↗

Studying Solar Irradiance Variability with Wavelet Technique

The detection of variations in solar irradiance by satellite-based experiments during the last 17 years stimulated modelling efforts to help to identify their causes and to provide estimates for irradiance data when no satellite observations exist.

solar irradiance modelling efforst physical origin↗

A model of Comet P/Giacobini-Zinner

A computer model of Comet P/Giacobini-Zinner is presented which contains photoprocesses, gas-phase chemical kinetics, energy balance, multifluid hydrodynamics with a transition to free molecular flow, and solar wind interaction. Recently the physics for electrons in the model has been improved by including electron impact ionization and dissociation and separately accounting for electron energetics. Electron heating and cooling mechanisms include photoprocesses, recombination processes, inelastic and elastic collisions with heavy molecules, and expansion cooling. The model incorporates an internally consistent interaction of the solar wind with the coma gas using the axisymmetric ideal fluid dynamic equations. The nuclear size and composition have been chosen to make the calculations relevant to the September 11, 1985 International Cometary Explorer (ICE) encounter with Comet P/Giacobini-Zinner. Model profiles of the temperature, velocity, and number density of the electrons are in good agreement with measurements along ICE's trajectory. The results indicate the probe passed through a region of the coma at the onset of the plasma tail.

Boice, D. C.↗

Pickup Protons: Comparisons using the Three-Dimensional MHD HHMS-PI model and Ulysses SWICS Measurements

We report the first comparisons of pickup proton simulation results with in situ measurements of pickup protons obtained by the SWICS instrument on Ulysses. Simulations were run using the three dimensional (3D) time-dependent Hybrid Heliospheric Modeling System with Pickup Protons (HHMS-PI). HHMS-PI is an MHD solar wind model, expanded to include the basic physics of pickup protons from neutral hydrogen that drifts into the heliosphere from the local interstellar medium. We use the same model and input data developed by Detman et al. (2011) to now investigate the pickup protons. The simulated interval of 82 days in 2003 2004, includes both quiet solar wind (SW) and also the October November 2003 solar events (the Halloween 2003 solar storms). The HHMS-PI pickup proton simulations generally agree with the SWICS measurements and the HHMS-PI simulated solar wind generally agrees with SWOOPS (also on Ulysses) measurements. Many specific features in the observations are well represented by the model. We simulated twenty specific solar events associated with the Halloween 2003 storm. We give the specific values of the solar input parameters for the HHMS-PI simulations that provide the best combined agreement in the times of arrival of the solar-generated shocks at both ACE and Ulysses. We show graphical comparisons of simulated and observed parameters, and we give quantitative measures of the agreement of simulated with observed parameters. We suggest that some of the variations in the pickup proton density during the Halloween 2003 solar events may be attributed to depletion of the inflowing local interstellar medium (LISM) neutral hydrogen (H) caused by its increased conversion to pickup protons in the immediately preceding shock.

Intriligator, Devrie S.↗

Basic Modeling of the Solar Atmosphere and Spectrum

During the last three years we have continued the development of extensive computer programs for constructing realistic models of the solar atmosphere and for calculating detailed spectra to use in the interpretation of solar observations. This research involves two major interrelated efforts: work by Avrett and Loeser on the Pandora computer program for optically thick non-LTE modeling of the solar atmosphere including a wide range of physical processes, and work by Kurucz on the detailed high-resolution synthesis of the solar spectrum using data for over 58 million atomic and molecular lines. Our objective is to construct atmospheric models from which the calculated spectra agree as well as possible with high-and low-resolution observations over a wide wavelength range. Such modeling leads to an improved understanding of the physical processes responsible for the structure and behavior of the atmosphere.

Avrett, Eugene H.↗

Nonlinear ARMA models for the D(st) index and their physical interpretation

Time series models successfully reproduce or predict geomagnetic activity indices from solar wind parameters. A method is presented that converts a type of nonlinear filter, the nonlinear Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model to the nonlinear damped oscillator physical model. The oscillator parameters, the growth and decay, the oscillation frequencies and the coupling strength to the input are derived from the filter coefficients. Mathematical methods are derived to obtain unique and consistent filter coefficients while keeping the prediction error low. These methods are applied to an oscillator model for the Dst geomagnetic index driven by the solar wind input. A data set is examined in two ways: the model parameters are calculated as averages over short time intervals, and a nonlinear ARMA model is calculated and the model parameters are derived as a function of the phase space.

Vassiliadis, D.↗

Global MHD Models of the Solar Corona

Global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the solar corona are computationally intensive, numerically complex simulations that have produced important new results over the past few years. After a brief overview of how these models usually work, I will address three topics: (1) How these models are now routinely used to predict the morphology of the corona and analyze Earth and space-based remote observations of the Sun; (2) The direct application of these models to the analysis of physical processes in the corona and chromosphere and to the interpretation of in situ solar wind observations; and (3) The use of results from global models to validate the approximations used to make detailed studies of physical processes in the corona that are not otherwise possible using the global models themselves.

Suess, S. T.↗