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At least 73 records · Page 4

Representations of Precipitation Diurnal Cycle in the Amazon as Simulated by Observationally Constrained Cloud‐System Resolving and Global Climate Models

Abstract The ability of an observationally‐constrained cloud‐system resolving model (Weather Research and Forecasting; WRF, 4‐km grid spacing) and a global climate model (Energy Exascale Earth System Model; E3SM, 1‐degree grid spacing) to represent the precipitation diurnal cycle over the Amazon basin during the 2014 wet season is assessed. The WRF model coupled with a 3‐D variational data assimilation scheme reproduces the spatial variability of the precipitation diurnal cycle over the basin and the lifecycle of westward propagating MCSs initiated by the coastal sea‐breeze front. In contrast, a single morning peak in rainfall is produced by E3SM for simulations despite the nudging of large‐scale winds toward global reanalysis, indicating precipitation in E3SM is largely controlled by local convection associated with diurnal heating. The role of propagating MCS on the environment are discussed by using a multivariate perturbation analysis. We also find that the advection of moisture perturbations from ocean to inland regions have a higher correlation with the occurrence of MCSs in the Amazon than the intensity of colder air intrusion associated with sea breezes along the coast. Moreover, the presence of large cold pools over the central Amazon basin are responsible for the maintenance of propagating deep convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A heuristic criterion for instability to fragmentation in rotating, interstellar clouds

A heuristic criterion, based on linear perturbation analysis, is applied to the initial growth of density perturbations in isothermal or adiabatic gas clouds, with initially uniform density and uniform rotation. The heuristic criterion is shown to be consistent with the available results from numerical calculations of cloud collapse. The criterion predicts that perturbations varying as cos(m-phi) will be most likely to grow when m is small, unless the cloud is nearly pressureless.

Boss, A. P.↗

A Heuristic Criterion for Instability to Fragmentation in Rotating, Interstellar Clouds

A heuristic criterion, based on linear perturbation analysis, is applied to the initial growth of density perturbations in isothermal or adiabatic gas clouds, with initially uniform density and uniform rotation. The heuristic criterion is shown to be consistent with the available results from numerical calculations of cloud collapse. The criterion predicts that perturbations varying as cos (m(phi)) will be most likely to grow when )pi is small, unless the cloud is nearly pressureless.

Boss, Alan Paul↗

Resolving ECRH deposition broadening due to edge turbulence in DIII-D

Microwave heat pulse propagation experiments have demonstrated a correlation between millimeter-scale turbulence and deposition profile broadening of electron cyclotron (EC) waves on the DIII-D tokamak. In a set of discharges in DIII-D, a variation in edge density fluctuations on the mm-scale is associated with 40%–150% broader deposition profiles, expressed in terms of normalized minor radius, as compared with equilibrium ray tracing. The 1D power profile is determined from transport analysis of the electron temperature response to EC power modulation using perturbative analysis with a square wave power modulation at 20–70 Hz, producing a series of Fourier harmonics that are fit collectively to resolve transport. Fitting an integrated heat flux expressed in the Fourier basis of the modulation to diffusive, convective, and coupled transport terms in a linear model can resolve the broadened EC deposition width from the power perturbation to resolve a broadening in each case. The best fit degree of beam broadening observed scales approximately linearly with the Doppler backscattering measured fluctuation level in the steep gradient region. Quantifying the effect of edge fluctuation broadening on EC current drive power needs of future devices will require 3D full-wave codes that can be validated on the current generation of machines. These DIII-D experiments provide a quantitative measure of fluctuation effects and a dataset to benchmark full-wave simulations that can model and eventually predict nonlinear effects neglected by 1D equilibrium beam and ray tracing.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Thrust vectoring for lateral-directional stability

The advantages and disadvantages of using thrust vectoring for lateral-directional control and the effects of reducing the tail size of a single-engine aircraft were investigated. The aerodynamic characteristics of the F-16 aircraft were generated by using the Aerodynamic Preliminary Analysis System II panel code. The resulting lateral-directional linear perturbation analysis of a modified F-16 aircraft with various tail sizes and yaw vectoring was performed at several speeds and altitudes to determine the stability and control trends for the aircraft compared to these trends for a baseline aircraft. A study of the paddle-type turning vane thrust vectoring control system as used on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration F/A-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle is also presented.

Peron, Lee R.↗

Flap-lag-torsional dynamics of helicopter rotor blades in forward flight

A perturbation/numerical methodology to analyze the flap-lead/lag motion of a centrally hinged spring restrained rotor blade that is valid for both hover and for forward flight was developed. The derivation of the nonlinear differential equations of motion and the analysis of the stability of the steady state response of the blade were conducted entirely in a Symbolics 3670 Machine using MACSYMA to perform all the lengthy symbolic manipulations. It also includes generation of the fortran codes and plots of the results. The Floquet theory was also applied to the differential equations of motion in order to compare results with those obtained from the perturbation analysis. The results obtained from the perturbation methodology and from Floquet theory were found to be very close to each other, which demonstrates the usefullness of the perturbation methodology. Another problem under study consisted in the analysis of the influence of higher order terms in the response and stability of a flexible rotor blade in forward flight using Computerized Symbolic Manipulation and a perturbation technique to bypass the Floquet theory. The derivation of the partial differential equations of motion is presented.

Crespodasilva, M. R. M.↗

Magnetothermal instability in cooling flows

The effect of magnetic fields on thermal instability in cooling flows is investigated using linear, Eulerian perturbation analysis. As contrasted with the zero magnetic-field case, hydromagnetic stresses support perturbations against acceleration caused by buoyancy - comoving evolution results and global growth rates are straightforward to obtain for a given cooling flow entropy distribution. In addition, background and induced magnetic fields ensure that conductive damping of thermal instability is greatly reduced.

Loewenstein, Michael↗

Dendritic solidification in a binary alloy melt: Steady-state versus morphological stability theories

A model for dendritic growth in a binary alloy melt, in the presence of a positive temperature gradient in the liquid, is presented. The model describes satisfactorily the transition from a dendritic interface to a planar interface at very low and very large growth rates. A dendrite tip stability parameter is derived, strictly from steady state considerations, without resorting to a perturbation analysis. The estimates of the parameter agree with those obtained by models based on perturbation analyses.

Laymanan, V.↗

The long-term motion of artificial Jovian satellites

This paper is a description of a preliminary study aimed at the classification and establishment of realistic orbit design criteria of artificial satellites of Jupiter. The work is concentrated on investigation of the factors that will affect the long-term motion, and particularly the dynamic lifetime, of the first Jupiter orbiters. Included is a perturbation analysis describing the effects of the Jovian gravity, the Galilean satellites, and the solar gravitational perturbations. An unusual problem is identified in the great difficulty of avoiding near-collisions with the Galilean satellites. The results of the perturbation and dynamic lifetime analyses are used in brief discussions of some possible Jupiter orbit missions.

Uphoff, C.↗

Orbital stability in combined uniform axial and three-dimensional wiggler magnetic fields for free-electron lasers

Zachary Phys. Rev. A 29 (6), 3224 (1984) recently analyzed the instability of relativistic-electron helical trajectories in combined uniform axial and helical wiggler magnetic fields when the radial variation of the wiggler field is taken into account. It is shown here that the type 2 instability comprised of secular terms growing linearly in time, identified by Zachary and earlier by Diament Phys. Rev. A 23 (5), 2537 (1981), is an artifact of simple perturbation theory. A multiple-time-scale perturbation analysis reveals a nonsecular evolution on a slower time scale which accommodates an arbitrary initial perturbation. It is shown that, in the absence of exponential instability, the electron seeks a modified helical orbit more appropriate to its perturbed state and oscillates stably about it. Thus, the perturbed motion is oscillatory but nonsecular, and hence the helical orbits are stable.

Johnston, S.↗

A mechanism for inducing climatic variations through ozone destruction: Screening of galactic cosmic rays by solar and terrestrial magnetic fields

A perturbation analysis, allowing for temperature and opacity feedbacks, is developed to calculate depletions in the O3 abundance and reductions of stratospheric solar heating that result from increases in NOx concentration. A pair of perturbation coefficients give the reduction in O3 and temperature through the stratosphere for a specified NOx increase. This type of analysis illustrates the tendency for various levels to self-heal when a perturbation occurs. Physical arguments indicate that the expected sign of the climatic effect is correct, with colder surface temperatures produced by reduced magnetic shielding. In addition, four qualitative reasons are suggested for thinking that significant ozone reductions by cosmic ray influxes will lead to an increased terrestrial albedo from stratospheric condensation. In this view, long-term (approximately 10,000 years) climatic changes have resulted from secular geomagnetic variations while shorter (approximately 100 years) excursions are related to changes in solar activity.

Chamberlain, J. W.↗

Analysis of wind perturbation activity for the NSTS launches

A method for statistical analysis of wind perturbation activity is proposed for application in NSTS prelaunch assessment of the wind environment. Methods for comparing day-of-launch wind perturbation standard deviations with historical data at the launch site are described. A statistical model based on the Gumbel extreme value distribution is developed for the largest vector and component perturbations in a wind profile as a function of high-pass filter cutoff wavelength. Application of the model is proposed for assessing extreme perturbations within prelaunch sequential Jimsphere wind profiles.

Adelfang, Stanley I.↗

Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment for intermodal freight transportation

Intermodal freight optimization models support cost-effective, low-emission, and timely goods movement by coordinating trucks, rail, and barges. These models determine optimal flows, routing, and modal switches while respecting infrastructure and operational constraints. However, their real-world utility is often undermined by pervasive uncertainties-such as fluctuating transportation costs and emissions, variable terminal capacities, and uncertain freight demand-that distort key performance outcomes, including total system cost, carbon footprint, and transit time reliability. This study presents a structured framework for quantifying uncertainty in intermodal freight transportation (IFT) optimization. The framework evaluates how input uncertainty affects system performance and reliability, a critical need for ensuring that model-based decisions remain robust under real-world variability, especially amid volatile fuel prices, shifting demand, and growing disruptions. It integrates three complementary methods: (1) Sobol-based global sensitivity analysis to identify influential parameters affecting cost, emissions, and transit time, (2) Monte Carlo-based capacity perturbation analysis to assess robustness under probabilistic facility disruptions, and (3) Monte Carlo filtering with Bayesian inference to detect threshold-based performance vulnerabilities. The results highlight diesel truck unit cost as the dominant driver of variability. To improve system resilience, planners should prioritize uncertainty in fuel-related parameters when designing intermodal strategies.

Intermodal freight transportation↗

Natural convection in steady solidification - Finite element analysis of a two-phase Rayleigh-Benard problem

Galerkin finite-element approximations and Newton's method for solving free boundary problems are combined with computer-implemented techniques from nonlinear perturbation analysis to study solidification problems with natural convection in the melt. The Newton method gives rapid convergence to steady state velocity, temperature and pressure fields and melt-solid interface shapes, and forms the basis for algebraic methods for detecting multiple steady flows and assessing their stability. The power of this combination is demonstrated for a two-phase Rayleigh-Benard problem composed of melt and solid in a veritical cylinder with the thermal boundary conditions arranged so that a static melt with a flat melt-solid interface is always a solution. Multiple cellular flows bifurcating from the static state are detected and followed as Rayleigh number is varied. Changing the boundary conditions to approach those appropriate for the vertical Bridgman solidification system causes imperfections that eliminate the static state. The flow structure in the Bridgman system is related to those for the Rayleigh-Benard system by a continuous evolution of the boundary conditions.

Chang, C. J.↗

The present state and the future direction of eddy viscosity models

Information is given in viewgraph form on the present state and future direction of eddy viscosity models. Topics covered include the eddy viscosity dilemma, two-equation models, equations of motion, free shear flows, incompressible free shear flows, model-predicted boundary layer structure, defect layer analysis, the effects of pressure gradients, viscous sublayer structure, wall functions and viscous damping, viscous damping for kappa-omega, the effects of compressibility, perturbation analysis of the wall layer, an alternative compressibility term, unsteady boundary layers, incompressible separation, backstep results, and compressible separation.

Wilcox, David C.↗