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Stability and control of power systems with high penetrations of inverter-based resources: An accessible review of current knowledge and open questions

As power system renewable energy penetrations increase, the ways in which key renewable technologies such as wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) differ from thermal generators become more apparent. Many studies have examined the variability and uncertainty of such generators and described how generation and load can be balanced for a wide variety of annual energy penetrations, at timescales from seconds to years. Another important characteristic of these resources is asynchronicity, the result of using inverters to interface the prime energy source with the power system as opposed to synchronous generators. Unlike synchronous generators, whose frequency of alternating current (AC) injection is physically coupled to the rotation of the machine itself, inverter based asynchronous generators do not share the same physical coupling with the generated frequency. These subtle differences impact the operations of power systems developed around the characteristics of synchronous generators. In this paper we review current knowledge and open research questions concerning the interplay between asynchronous inverter-based resources (IBRs) and cycle- to second-scale power system dynamics, with a focus on how stability and control may be impacted or need to be achieved differently when there are high instantaneous penetrations of IBRs across an interconnection. This work does not seek to provide a comprehensive review of the latest developments, but is instead intended to be accessible to any reader with an engineering background and an interest in power systems and renewable energy. As such, the paper includes basic material on power electronics, control schemes for IBRs, and power system stability; and uses this background material to describe potential impacts of IBRs on power system stability, operational challenges associated with large amounts of distributed IBR generation, and modern power system simulation trends driven by IBR characteristics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Impact of Penetrating Kelvin Waves on MJO Rainfall Propagation Through Deep Convection Modulation

The Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a dominant intraseasonal oscillation in the tropics. As MJOs propagate over the Indian Ocean, some of them can be penetrated by fast‐moving equatorial Kelvin waves originating to the west of the MJOs. Through a series of sensitivity experiments, we demonstrate that these penetrating Kelvin waves can modulate the eastward propagation speed of MJO rainfall. Deep convection in the western MJO rainfall envelope initiates more frequently and produces greater lifetime rainfall when a convectively active Kelvin phase is present, while the opposite occurs during a convectively suppressed Kelvin phase. This alteration in deep convection activity can lead to notable changes in the propagation of the large‐scale MJO rainfall envelope. The modulation of deep convection lifetime rainfall by penetrating Kelvin waves primarily occurs through their impact on deep convection rainfall area, which is closely related to the variations in lower‐tropospheric moisture induced by the Kelvin waves.

Chen, Xingchao [Pennsylvania State Univ., Universi↗

Multiseriate cortical sclerenchyma enhance root penetration in compacted soils

Mechanical impedance limits soil exploration and resource capture by plant roots. We examine the role of root anatomy in regulating plant adaptation to mechanical impedance and identify a root anatomical phene in maize (Zea mays) and wheat (Triticum aestivum) associated with penetration of hard soil: Multiseriate cortical sclerenchyma (MCS). We characterize this trait and evaluate the utility of MCS for root penetration in compacted soils. Roots with MCS had a greater cell wall-to-lumen ratio and a distinct UV emission spectrum in outer cortical cells. Genome-wide association mapping revealed that MCS is heritable and genetically controlled. We identified a candidate gene associated with MCS. Across all root classes and nodal positions, maize genotypes with MCS had 13% greater root lignin concentration compared to genotypes without MCS. Genotypes without MCS formed MCS upon exogenous ethylene exposure. Genotypes with MCS had greater lignin concentration and bending strength at the root tip. In controlled environments, MCS in maize and wheat was associated improved root tensile strength and increased penetration ability in compacted soils. Maize genotypes with MCS had root systems with 22% greater depth and 49% greater shoot biomass in compacted soils in the field compared to lines without MCS. Of the lines we assessed, MCS was present in 30 to 50% of modern maize, wheat, and barley cultivars but was absent in teosinte and wild and landrace accessions of wheat and barley. MCS merits investigation as a trait for improving plant performance in maize, wheat, and other grasses under edaphic stress.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Disentanglement of density and rotation dependences of the field penetration threshold on the J-TEXT tokamak

The field penetration threshold of magnetic perturbations has been observed to vary non-monotonically with an increase of density in ohmic plasmas on the J-TEXT tokamak. This observation appears contradicting the previous empirical density scaling law. Disentanglement of plasma density and rotation dependences of the field penetration threshold has been carried out. It shows that the field penetration threshold depends only weakly on the density but linearly on the plasma rotation. This result is not only important for the prediction of error field tolerance in fusion devices, but also opens a question on the role of density in the forced magnetic reconnection process in magnetized plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A scaling law of the neutral penetration length and Balmer- α wing shape in high-temperature plasmas

Hydrogen atoms penetrating deep inside high-temperature magnetically confined plasmas by repetitive charge-exchange collisions result in a particle source of the plasma, which affects the plasma transport significantly. In this paper, we present an approximate solution of the fluid equations for neutral transport and an analytical representation of the neutral penetration length, in a simplified plasma geometry. This analysis predicts a power-law decay in the Balmer-α line wings which reflects the velocity distribution of the neutral atoms, with the power-law exponent analytically represented as well. These scaling laws are compared with a simple Monte–Carlo simulation and spectroscopic observations of Large Helical Device plasmas. Since the Balmer-α line wings are experimentally accessible, our formulation opens the possibility to quickly estimate the neutral penetration length from spectroscopic observations.

neutral opacity↗

Campbell penetration depth in low carrier density superconductor YPtBi

Magnetic penetration depth, λ m , was measured as a function of temperature and magnetic field in single crystals of low carrier density superconductor YPtBi by using a tunnel-diode oscillator technique. Measurements in zero DC magnetic field yield London penetration depth, λ L ( T ) , but in the applied field the signal includes the Campbell penetration depth, λ C ( T ) , which is the characteristic length of the attenuation of small excitation field, H AC , into the Abrikosov vortex lattice due to its elasticity. Whereas the magnetic field dependent λ C exhibit λ C ~ B p with p = 1 / 2 in most of the conventional and unconventional superconductors, we found that p ≈ 0.23 << 1 / 2 in YPtBi due to rapid suppression of the pinning strength. From the measured λ C ( T , H ) , the critical current density is j c ≈ 40 A / cm 2 at 75 mK. We find that this is orders of magnitude lower than that of conventional superconductors of comparable T c .

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Discrete and Integrated Solutions for Hybrid PV Plants Without Momentary Cessation in Low SCR and High Penetration PE Grids

With the increased penetration of power electronic (PE) based loads and sources, advanced solutions may be required for the enhancement of grid stability in regions with low short circuit ratio (SCR) and high penetration PE grids. The requirement of advanced solutions arises from the gradual paradigm shift of the electric grid from the traditional electric machine dominant system to a high penetration of PE-based system. One of the major challenges with such systems in recent times is the momentary cessation during alternating current (ac) grid transmission faults. During momentary cessation, PE-based resources cease to operate, thus creating probable reliability challenges for the grid. In this paper, potential feasible options to provide continuity of operation during such scenarios are presented. The options are considered through identifying upgrades in existing and upcoming discrete development of photovoltaic (PV) and energy storage systems (ESS) termed as discrete hybrid PV plants. Additionally, an advanced concept of integrated development of PV and ESS connecting to ac transmission grid links called multi-port autonomous reconfigurable solar power plant (MARS) is evaluated. The developed new solutions are evaluated for different grid use cases and scenarios in PSCAD.

Marthi, Phani Ratna Vanamali↗

Clustering Interval Load with Weather to Create Scenarios of Behind-the-Meter Solar Penetration

Forecasting load at the feeder level has become increasingly challenging with the penetration of behind-the-meter solar, as this self-generation is only visible to the utility as aggregated net-load. This work proposes a methodology for creation of scenarios of solar penetration at the feeder level for use by forecasters to test the robustness of their algorithm to progressively higher penetrations of solar. The algorithm draws on publicly available observations of weather condition (e.g., rainy/cloudy/fair) for use as proxies to sky clearness. These observations are used to mask and weight the interval deviations of similar native usage profiles from which average interval usage is calculated and subsequently added to interval net generation to reconstruct interval total generation. This approach improves the estimate of annual energy generation by 23%; where the net generation signal currently reflects 52% of total annual gener- ation, now 75% is captured. This methodology for creation of forecast testing scenarios is data driven and extensible to service territories which lack information on irradiance measurements and geocoordinates.

solar, load↗

Integrated Coordination of Voltage Regulators with Distributed Cooperative Inverter Control in Systems with High Penetration of DGs

Increased penetration of distributed generation (DG) in recent years has a significant impact on operation and control of power systems. One of the main issues with the increased penetration of DGs is the effect of voltage rise. This paper investigates integration of coordinated voltage regulator (VRs) operation with cooperative distributed inverter control to maintain voltages in appropriate limits in distribution systems with high penetration of DGs. The coordinated VR control is used to optimize the settings of multiple nested VRs while the cooperative distributed control optimally dispatches reactive power of the DGs. The integrated approach is compared with the case without coordinated VRs control (uncoordinated local control). Simulation results illustrate the effective performance of the proposed method to achieve unified voltage profile.

coordinated voltage regulator control↗

Understanding Li-Ion Cell Internal Short Circuit and Thermal Runaway through Small, Slow and In Situ Sensing Nail Penetration

Here we report a small, slow and in situ sensing (3S) nail penetration test method to understand Li-ion cell internal short circuit (ISC) and thermal runaway. The method not only keeps conventional nail penetration's advantage of simple implementation, but also enhances its relevance to field failures and enables detailed in situ diagnosis. It was applied to 3-Ah pouch cells and revealed insights that could not be captured by conventional methods. Most interestingly, multiple in situ temperature peaks were observed during a period of over 100 s before thermal runaway. These initial peaks exceeded safety limit but the temperature rapidly decreased after each peak instead of causing immediate thermal runaway. Further investigation suggested that the initial temperature peaks occurred when nail tip reached aluminum foil current collector to form a low resistance ISC between anode and aluminum foil. The rapid temperature decrease after each peak can be attributed to sudden drop of ISC current, which can be further attributed to rupture of aluminum foil and increase of contact resistance. The findings show that 3S nail penetration test can separate processes of ISC from thermal runaway and provide details of ISC at the level of individual electrode and current collector.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

SunDial – An Integrated SHINES System to Enable High-penetration Feeder-level PV

The Project Team of Fraunhofer USA, National Grid, and IPKeys developed and conducted a pilot deployment of the SunDial system, a virtual power plant platform that enables high-penetrations of solar PV to be integrated into the distribution grid. The pilot was conducted over a 15-month period from August 2018 through October 2019 on a National Grid distribution feeder in Shirley, MA. A vendor-agnostic control platform (the “Global Scheduler”) optimally shaped the net load for a virtual portfolio of non-co-located DERs based on user-defined policy objectives. The goal of the SunDial project was to simplify and reduce the risk associated with the deployment of solar in high-penetration environments by: (1) Developing an open-source, vendor-agnostic dispatch platform that can be readily adapted to optimize control of DERs over a variety of use cases; (2) Developing auto-calibrating load and solar prediction methodologies that can be readily implemented and scaled to new deployments; (3) Developing a methodology to use demand-side management with traditional electrochemical energy storage to provide “load shaping” services in high solar penetration environments; (4) Using grid-scale storage to minimize short-term intermittency association with PV production; and (5) Deploying on the National Grid distribution system to gain experience on the potential for (and limits of) integrated storage with demand-side management.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Utilities Perspective on Protection Challenges with High IBR Penetration

Utilities have seen rapid increase in Solar, Wind, and Battery Energy Storage Resources that interconnect to their electric system through Inverters. Inverter-Based Resources (IBRs) have fault current characteristics that are unlike the fault current response of traditional rotating-machine-based generators, which is well known and repeatable. IBR’s non-traditional fault current behavior is due to the IBR control scheme, which is configured to provide a clean AC output but also protect the inverter’s sensitive power electronics devices from damage, one source of which is overcurrent. This results in low fault current magnitude, low or no negative sequence current injection, the variability of sequence component currents, the variability of voltage with respect to current angles, and the lack of inertia. The control scheme also results in a fault current response that can vary between manufactures and between models of the same manufacturer. High penetration of IBRs can adversely affect the protection schemes applied in areas with high penetration of IBRs. With the proliferation of IBRs, utilities are finding out that conventional protection schemes are not adequately equipped to protect the electric systems. This is mainly because the existing protection elements and practices have been designed based on the fault current response of conventional rotating machines. In several cases, the available literature does not provide any clear solution for the issues when the protection scheme does not operate properly near IBRs. This presentation identifies various protection challenges due to IBRs that industry is facing, from the utility perspective. Instead of facing on one issue, we are looking broadly on all the challenges that system protection has experienced with high penetration of IBRs. Based on the IBR response from various utilities during real fault events and gathering perspective from different utility SMEs via questionnaire, the presentation summarizes on gathered data and internal experiences.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Adaptive Protection and Validated Models to Enable Deployment of High Penetrations of Solar PV (PV-MOD)

The availability and validation of various PV models in commercial tools differ, with some models not yet thoroughly validated for advanced inverter functionalities and reliable performance under weak system conditions. Many existing models do not fully incorporate new inverter control functions, which can affect system stability. The increasing deployment of solar PV and other inverter-based resources (IBRs), including distributed energy resources (DERs), is influencing the reliable operation of protection schemes in distribution systems and microgrids. Emerging adaptive protection schemes (APS) offer new opportunities for protecting these systems during varying configurations and DER operating conditions, though their demonstration and validation remain limited. Adaptive protection schemes face similar challenges, as they are typically designed for specific configurations. There is a growing need for tools and methodologies to streamline the deployment of adaptive protection for safe and reliable DER integration. The project main objective was to develop and validate high-fidelity generic models of solar PV facilities for stability, protection, EMT, and QSTS analyses. This objective was achieved, and these models can now be integrated into commercial software tools, enabling utilities, vendors, and developers to study high-penetration PV systems more confidently. The project also demonstrated advanced applications of these models, including the design and deployment of adaptive protection schemes in high-penetration field applications and microgrids, supporting grid safety and reliability. Several milestones were reached by the end of the project. A sophisticated inverter test plan was developed, and inverters representative of the North American marketplace were selected. EPRI and NREL tested various inverters, conforming to IEEE standards. Improvements were made to existing generic models of IBR units, IBR plants, and aggregated feeders for various analyses. The first generic electromagnetic transient (EMT) model for a solar PV plant was developed, conforming to IEEE Std 2800™-2022 and validated against laboratory measurements of a 2.2 MVA large-scale battery energy storage system (BESS) inverter. That model was then used to produce reference responses illustrating examples of validated and verified IBR plant models that pass or fail tests for technical minimum capability and performance as specified in the IEEE standard. The developed, tested, and validated generic models can be used for transmission planning, stability assessments, expansion planning, and evaluating potential future IBR interconnection requirements. They can also support interconnection screens and conformity assessments of IBR plants, including solar PV. The project significantly contributed to the ongoing standardization and model-based representation and verification of IBR responses. The project further addressed challenges of common distribution protection schemes with increasing deployment of DER by developing, validating, and demonstrating adaptive protection schemes (APS) that can improve the reliable and safe integration of DER into distribution systems. New APS were designed using improved DER models for three common distribution systems: a radial feeder, a meshed network, and a microgrid. Modeling and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing of the APS were conducted, successfully showing their effectiveness and selectivity. Proof-of-concept field demonstration was achieved for two APS, i.e., one on a radial feeder and another one in a microgrid. Field demonstration could not be achieved for the APS on a meshed network, primarily due apprehension of one utility partner and also due to limited access to the protective algorithms in the network protectors. Guidelines developed from the lessons learned in the project lay out the general process followed in the design, installation, and commissioning of APS for various distribution systems. Distribution utility partners’ apprehension about field demonstration of the new APS were addressed—with varying success—by taking a stepped risk-management approach of modeling of a wide range of sensitivities first, performing in-depth proof-of-concept testing in the laboratory including HIL next, and finally deliberately implementing and commissioning the actual protection equipment and algorithms into parts of—or in parallel operation to—the three real distribution systems. Future work should include pilot projects that further show the acceptable performance of the developed APS before these schemes be rolled out more widely. Inclusion of both utility and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in future projects could increase chances of successful field demonstration. Despite challenges in achieving the field demonstration goal of the project for all three APS, the research significantly contributed to the innovation of adaptive protection solutions for scalable and reliable DER integration into distribution systems. This project significantly enhances the understanding of the impact of using appropriate inverter models on distribution and transmission (T&D) systems. By addressing the limitations of existing generic models, the project introduces high-fidelity models for stability, protection, electromagnetic transient (EMT), and quasi-static time series (QSTS) analyses. These models, integrated into commercial software tools, enable utilities, vendors, and developers to confidently study high-penetration PV systems. The project also demonstrates advanced applications, including adaptive protection schemes (APS) for distribution systems and microgrids, ensuring grid safety and reliability. The technical effectiveness and economic feasibility of the methods are evident through the development and validation of sophisticated inverter test plans and the selection of representative inverters. Testing by EPRI and NREL on retail, commercial, and utility-scale inverters, conforming to IEEE standards, underscores the robustness of the models. Improvements to existing generic models for various analyses further enhance their validity and applicability. The project also identifies gaps in common distribution protection schemes and designed new APS using improved DER models, demonstrating their effectiveness through modeling and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing. The project’s benefits to the public are manifold. By advancing the standardization and model-based representation of IBR response, it supports transmission planning, stability assessments, and future IBR interconnection requirements. The generic models can facilitate better communication between transmission planners and developers, supporting expected IBR plant capability and performance. Additionally, the development of APS for radial feeders, meshed networks, and microgrids supports the integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution systems, enhancing grid reliability and safety. The project’s emphasis on thorough testing and simplicity in design ensures practical and scalable solutions for DER integration.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Utility Perspective on Protection Challenges with High Penetration of IBRs

Utilities have seen rapid increase in Solar, Wind, and Battery Energy Storage Resources that interconnect to their electric system through Inverters. Inverter-Based Resources (IBRs) have fault current characteristics that are unlike the fault current response of traditional rotating-machine-based generators, which is well known and repeatable. IBR’s non-traditional fault current behavior is due to the IBR control scheme, which is configured to provide a clean AC output but also protect the inverter’s sensitive power electronics devices from damage, one source of which is overcurrent. This results in low fault current magnitude, low or no negative sequence current injection, the variability of sequence component currents, the variability of voltage with respect to current angles, and the lack of inertia. The control scheme also results in a fault current response that can vary between manufactures and between models of the same manufacturer. High penetration of IBRs can adversely affect the protection schemes applied in areas with high penetration of IBRs. With the proliferation of IBRs, utilities are finding out that conventional protection schemes are not adequately equipped to protect the electric systems. This is mainly because the existing protection elements and practices have been designed based on the fault current response of conventional rotating machines. In several cases, the available literature does not provide any clear solution for the issues when the protection scheme does not operate properly near IBRs. This report / presentation identifies various protection challenges due to IBRs that industry is facing, from the utility perspective. Instead of facing on one issue, this report looks broadly on all the challenges that system protection has experienced with high penetration of IBRs. Based on the IBR response from various utilities during real fault events and gathering perspective from different utility SMEs via questionnaire, the report summarizes on gathered data and internal experiences.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

SMR Containment Cable and Electrical Penetration Assembly System

GAIN Project CRADA Number NFE-21-08839, entitled “SMR Containment Cable and EPA System” was initiated by the partnership of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Engineered Solutions Group (ESG) to test an ESG-designed Electrical Penetration Assembly and Containment Cabling System Qualified for not only SMR technologies, but also Advanced Reactors design. An Electrical Penetration Assembly (EPA) is a component used to allow electrical power and signal conductors as well as optical fiber through the nuclear reactor’s containment structure while maintaining a pressure barrier. The EPA ensures the containment's integrity both during the normal operation and also accident conditions by providing a sealed passage for power and signals. This project was undertaken to fill the equipment gap of EPA and Cabling Systems that require much more severe environmental requirements than legacy plant applications present due to their smaller containment volumes that result in high energy densities compared to legacy designs. This high energy density results in severe accident environments and also more severe normal operating conditions.This document describes cost effective approaches to qualify a unique EPA for Small Modular Reactor (SMR) technologies as legacy LWR EPA technologies will likely have inherent material performance insufficiencies. The DBA profiles for SMRs (and some Advanced Reactor Technologies) are more severe than the legacy qualification requirements making the design of the qualification testing system challenging as the temperatures and pressures can approach the limits permitted by ASME Pressure Vessel Code, as well as accident temperatures exceeding the capability of polymeric gaskets and dielectrics. Small Modular Reactors are designed to have, as the name suggests, modularity which implies sized for factory fabrication and subsequent assembly at the power plant site. SMR containment is much smaller than a legacy Light Water Reactor containment. The containment walls are likely to be comprised of stainless steel. Qualifying Electrical Penetration Assemblies (EPAs) through these steel vessels are of interest in this work. Methods are presented here that discuss critical safety and cost effectiveness for these SMR EPA’s test systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Engineered Solutions Group's SMR Containment Cable and Electrical Penetration Assembly System

GAIN Project CRADA Number NFE-21-08839, entitled “SMR Containment Cable and EPA System” was initiated by the partnership of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Engineered Solutions Group (ESG) to test an ESG-designed Electrical Penetration Assembly and Containment Cabling System Qualified for not only legacy LWR designs, but also Small Modular Reactors designs currently being designed by several different suppliers. This project was undertaken to fill the equipment gap of EPA and Cabling Systems that require much more severe environmental requirements than legacy plant applications present due to their smaller containment volumes that result in high energy densities compared to legacy designs. This high energy density results in severe accident environments and more severe normal operating conditions as well. We developed two approaches to qualify Electrical Penetration Assembly (EPA) and Containment Cabling Systems for SMRs and Advanced Reactors. We take into consideration the more severe environmental parameters found with SMR designs. The system will need to meet a qualification test program addressing wear/cyclic aging, potential radiation exposure, thermal aging, vibration aging, thermal cycling, seismic qualification, electrical fault testing (per IEEE 317) and accident simulation. The equipment must meet the requirements of 10CFR50.49, GDC 50 in 10CFR50 Appendix A, and 10CFR50 Appendix J. NRC Regulatory Guides (RGs) identify an acceptable way of meeting regulatory requirements. RGs frequently endorse a standard for meeting these requirements. Specific to this review, equipment would be qualified in accordance with the following IEEE Standards. • IEEE 317-2013 (Electrical Penetration Assemblies), which is endorsed by RG 1.63, Rev. 3, • IEEE 323-2003 and the more current IEC/IEEE 60780-323 (Environmental Qualification of 1E Equipment) which is endorsed by RG 1.89. IEEE 323-2003 is endorsed by RG 1.209, • IEEE 344-2020 (Seismic Qualification. The 2013 version endorsed by RG 1.100, Rev. 4, with exceptions), • IEEE 383-2015 (Electrical Cables) (which is endorsed by RG 1.189 Rev. 4 and the -2003 version endorsed by RG 1.211 rev. 0), • IEEE 572-2019 (Electrical Connectors and Assemblies), which is endorsed by 1.156 Rev 1, and • [IEEE 1202 (endorsed by RG 1.189) would normally be applicable but the advanced cable designs are impervious to this cable flame test.] The primary goal of such a program is to provide an EPA design that can meet the qualification requirements for all legacy light water reactor plants currently operating as well as new plant designs including light water Small Modular Reactors. Thus, these requirements are applicable to plants licensed under 10CFR50 and 10CFR52. Other reactor designs may be evaluated, and this test system and qualification method applied to those applications if the requirements would satisfy the requirements of the intended plant. A secondary benefit of this work is to document some of the history and background in these requirements as there have been recent delays in an SMR licensing process due to NRC Requests for Additional Information in this subject matter area.

42 ENGINEERING↗

VRN3P: Variational Recurrent Neural Network Based Net-Load Prediction under High Solar Penetration

This is the final technical report for the SETO-funded VRN3P project (PNNL# 76914). The goal of this project, led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), in collaboration with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Portland General Electric (PGE), was to develop and validate a deep variational recurrent neural network-based net-load prediction (VRN3P) framework for probabilistic time-series forecasting of day-ahead net-load under high solar penetration scenarios. The project team reports successful design of a novel probabilistic net-load forecasting architecture, comprising of a variational autoencoder and a recurrent neural network, which demonstrates 30% improvement in forecast performance, 60% improvement in training time, and consumes 44% less memory, when compared with conventional baseline models. The team tested the VRN3P model performance on GridLAB-D test-cases representing varying BTM solar penetration levels of 20%, 30%, and 50%, with integrated time-series net-load profiles provided by the utility partner (PGE). The VRN3P model demonstrate <2% hourly MAPE (averaged over the year) for day- ahead net-load forecast on the test scenario with 20% BTM solar. Transfer learning extension of the VRN3P model has demonstrated 8.33× speed-up in training, while still achieving acceptable forecast performance of 2.24% hourly MAPE on the 30% BTM solar penetration test-scenario. A preliminary version of the VRN3P GridAPPS-D™has been developed, along with a web-based interactive user-interface (named ‘Forte’) which has made available on GitHub for public use.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Dispersion Caused by the Penetration Effect in X-ray Compressors

Chirped X-ray pulse compression is a promising approach for generating ultra-short X-ray free electron laser (XFEL) pulses. The design of X-ray pulse compressors requires the careful control of group delay dispersion (GDD), which plays a critical role in achieving optimal compression. However, the penetration dispersion of crystals and multilayers can induce an extra GDD, which may result in over-compression or under-compression. In this study, we investigate the penetration dispersion of crystals and multilayers theoretically and numerically. Our results indicate that the extra GDD induced by the penetration effect increases as the bandwidth of the rocking curve decreases. Moreover, the extra GDD is nonlinear and can be mitigated by optimizing the configuration of X-ray pulse compressors. This work provides insights into the dispersion compensation and configuration optimization of X-ray pulse compressors, which are essential for generating ultra-short XFEL pulses.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗