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Estimation from incomplete multinomial data

The vector of multinomial cell probabilities was estimated from incomplete data, incomplete in that it contains partially classified observations. Each such partially classified observation was observed to fall in one of two or more selected categories but was not classified further into a single category. The data were assumed to be incomplete at random. The estimation criterion was minimization of risk for quadratic loss. The estimators were the classical maximum likelihood estimate, the Bayesian posterior mode, and the posterior mean. An approximation was developed for the posterior mean. The Dirichlet, the conjugate prior for the multinomial distribution, was assumed for the prior distribution.

Credeur, K. R.

Observation model and parameter partials for the JPL VLBI parameter estimation software MASTERFIT-1987

This report is a revision of the document of the same title (1986), dated August 1, which it supersedes. Model changes during 1986 and 1987 included corrections for antenna feed rotation, refraction in modelling antenna axis offsets, and an option to employ improved values of the semiannual and annual nutation amplitudes. Partial derivatives of the observables with respect to an additional parameter (surface temperature) are now available. New versions of two figures representing the geometric delay are incorporated. The expressions for the partial derivatives with respect to the nutation parameters have been corrected to include contributions from the dependence of UTI on nutation. The authors hope to publish revisions of this document in the future, as modeling improvements warrant.

Sovers, O. J.

Physical Models In GPSOMC Software

Report desribes physical models incorporated into GPSOMC, (modeling module of GIPSY software) which processes geodetic measurements in Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) system. Models describe spacecraft orbits and motions of receivers fixed to Earth. Supplies apriori values of computed observables and partial derivatives of computed observables with respect to parameters of models. Describes portion of software modeling locations of receivers and motions of whole Earth and computes observables and partial derivatives. Corrected, expanded, and updated version of JPL Publication 87-21, September 15, 1987.

Sovers, Ojars J.

Observation model and parameter partials for the JPL VLBI parameter estimation software MODEST, 19 94

This report is a revision of the document Observation Model and Parameter Partials for the JPL VLBI Parameter Estimation Software 'MODEST'---1991, dated August 1, 1991. It supersedes that document and its four previous versions (1983, 1985, 1986, and 1987). A number of aspects of the very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) model were improved from 1991 to 1994. Treatment of tidal effects is extended to model the effects of ocean tides on universal time and polar motion (UTPM), including a default model for nearly diurnal and semidiurnal ocean tidal UTPM variations, and partial derivatives for all (solid and ocean) tidal UTPM amplitudes. The time-honored 'K(sub 1) correction' for solid earth tides has been extended to include analogous frequency-dependent response of five tidal components. Partials of ocean loading amplitudes are now supplied. The Zhu-Mathews-Oceans-Anisotropy (ZMOA) 1990-2 and Kinoshita-Souchay models of nutation are now two of the modeling choices to replace the increasingly inadequate 1980 International Astronomical Union (IAU) nutation series. A rudimentary model of antenna thermal expansion is provided. Two more troposphere mapping functions have been added to the repertoire. Finally, corrections among VLBI observations via the model of Treuhaft and lanyi improve modeling of the dynamic troposphere. A number of minor misprints in Rev. 4 have been corrected.

Sovers, O. J.

Observation model and parameter partials for the JPL geodetic (GPS) modeling software 'GPSOMC'

The physical models employed in GPSOMC, the modeling module of the GIPSY software system developed at JPL for analysis of geodetic Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) measurements are described. Details of the various contributions to range and phase observables are given, as well as the partial derivatives of the observed quantities with respect to model parameters. A glossary of parameters is provided to enable persons doing data analysis to identify quantities with their counterparts in the computer programs. The present version is the second revision of the original document which it supersedes. The modeling is expanded to provide the option of using Cartesian station coordinates; parameters for the time rates of change of universal time and polar motion are also introduced.

Sovers, O. J.

Observation model and parameter partials for the JPL geodetic GPS modeling software GPSOMC

The physical models employed in GPSOMC and the modeling module of the GIPSY software system developed at JPL for analysis of geodetic Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) measurements are described. Details of the various contributions to range and phase observables are given, as well as the partial derivatives of the observed quantities with respect to model parameters. A glossary of parameters is provided to enable persons doing data analysis to identify quantities in the current report with their counterparts in the computer programs. There are no basic model revisions, with the exceptions of an improved ocean loading model and some new options for handling clock parametrization. Such misprints as were discovered were corrected. Further revisions include modeling improvements and assurances that the model description is in accord with the current software.

Sovers, O. J.

Ground and aircraft infrared observations over a partially-vegetated area

Consideration is given to the feasibility of estimated a reliable composite surface temperature over a partially-vegetated and furrowed cotton field with an intensive ground sampling routing using hand-held radiometers. The ground-based data are compared with surface temperatures taken from an aircraft at an altitude of about 150 m. A simple model is presented for computing the composite surface temperature using component temperatures of the soil and vegetation and row crop dimensions and orientations. The results of the modeling are compared with the ground-based and airborne radiometric measurements. It is found that estimates of the composite surface temperature comparable to low-flying aircraft observations over row crops with sparse cover may be obtained using ground-based estimates of average canopy temperature.

Kustas, W. P.

Observation model and parameter partials for the JPL VLBI parameter estimation software MODEST/1991

A revision is presented of MASTERFIT-1987, which it supersedes. Changes during 1988 to 1991 included introduction of the octupole component of solid Earth tides, the NUVEL tectonic motion model, partial derivatives for the precession constant and source position rates, the option to correct for source structure, a refined model for antenna offsets, modeling the unique antenna at Richmond, FL, improved nutation series due to Zhu, Groten, and Reigber, and reintroduction of the old (Woolard) nutation series for simulation purposes. Text describing the relativistic transformations and gravitational contributions to the delay model was also revised in order to reflect the computer code more faithfully.

Sovers, O. J.

Finite ion temperature effects on electrostatic instabilities in partially magnetized plasmas

In this paper, the effects of warm ions on electrostatic, kinetic instabilities observed in partially magnetized plasmas, such as the electron cyclotron drift instability (ECDI) and modified two-stream instability (MTSI), are investigated. The kinetic dispersion relation that accounts for warm, non-magnetized ions and warm, magnetized electrons is solved using a complex root-finding technique [A. C. Denig and K. Hara, Phys. Plasmas 30, 032108 (2023)]. It is observed that finite ion temperature introduces ion Landau damping effects, decreasing the growth rate of most unstable modes. The high-frequency, short-wavelength ECDI modes are more strongly affected by ion Landau damping than the low-frequency, long-wavelength MTSI modes. The solutions of the kinetic dispersion relation for MTSI are compared with the fluid dispersion relation of MTSI, which was originally proposed by McBride et al. [Phys. Fluids 15 2367–2383 (1972)]. The differences in the dispersion characteristics between the kinetic and fluid MTSI limits are assessed, illustrating the effects of electron and ion Landau damping on kinetic instabilities in partially magnetized plasmas.

Denig, A. C. (ORCID:0000000253339572)

Reflection of radio waves by sporadic-E layers

A full-wave analysis of the reflection coefficient is developed and applied to electron-density profiles of midlatitude sporadic-E layers observed by rocket-borne probes. It is shown that partial reflection from the large electron-density gradients at the upper and lower boundaries of sporadic-E layers does not account for the partial transparency observed by ionosondes.

Miller, K. L.

In-Situ Partial Pressure Measurements and Visual Observation during Crystal Growth of ZnSe by Seeded Physical Vapor Transport

An in-situ monitoring furnace was constructed with side windows to perform partial pressure measurements by optical absorption and visual observation of the growing crystal. A fused silica -rowth ampoule with a 4.5 cm long square tube between the source and the seed was prepared for the optical absorption measurements. A ZnSe crystal was grown by the seeded physical vapor transport (PVT) technique in the horizontal configuration. The growth temperature was 1120 C and the furnace translation rate was 3nmVday. Partial pressures of Se2, P(sub Se2), at three locations along the length of the growth ampoule were measured at 90 min intervals during the growth process. The measured P (sub Se2) were in the range of 2.0 to 6.5 x 10(exp -3) atm. The P(sub Se2) results indicated that the partial pressure profile was inconsistent with the results of the one-dimensional diffusion mass transport model and that the source composition shifted toward Se-rich during the run, i.e. the grown crystal was more Zn-rich than the source. The visual observation showed that the seed crystal first etched back, with greater thermal etching occurring along the edges of the seed crystal. Once the growth started, the crystal crew in a predominately contactless mode and facets were evident during growth. The crystal did not grow symmetrically which is believed to be due to the unintentional asymmetry of the radial thermal profile in the furnace.

Su, Ching-Hua

X-ray, radio, and infrared observations of the 'rapid burster' /MXB 1730-335/ during 1979 and 1980

The paper reports partially simultaneous observations of the 'rapid burster' (MXB 1730-335) at X-ray, infrared, and radio wavelengths, covering several hundred hours during 1979 and 1980. None of the authors of this report saw any infrared or radio bursts. On several occasions an absence of infrared bursting was observed during X-ray bursting. On one occasion an absence of X-ray bursting was observed during a radio burst (4.1 GHz) reported by Calla et al. (1979). To date, radio bursts (a total of at least a dozen) have been reported only by Calla et al. (1980). Considering these and other observations summarized here, the reported radio bursts are either unreal or do not bear a simple relation to the X-ray bursts from the 'rapid burster'. The status of the reported infrared bursts also remain ambiguous. Limits to the brightness of any persistent radio source at the position of MXB 1730-335, limits to persistent X-ray emission during an extended X-ray quiet phase, and a measurement of the infrared polarization in the direction of the X-ray source are also reported.

Lawrence, A.

Simultaneous partial reflection and meteor radar wind observations at Urbana, Illinois, during the winter of 1974-1975

A program of observation was undertaken during the winter of 1974-1975 utilizing the meteor winds radar and partial reflection system at Urbana, Illinois. The north-south component of the prevailing wind representative of 80-100 km altitude was deduced for four 24-h observational periods during which partial reflection measurements of D-region electron density were made. These observations indicate southward mean motion during periods of higher electron density and northward mean motion during periods of lower electron density. This is consistent with the idea that increases in the transport of nitric oxide from the auroral zone is a cause of winter increases in D-region electron density at midlatitudes.

Geller, M. A.

Propagation and confinement of energetic electrons in solar flares

The propagation, confinement and total energy of energetic (greater than 25 keV) electrons in solar flares are examined through a brief review of the following hard X-ray measurements: (1) spatially resolved observations obtained by imaging instruments; (2) stereoscopic observations of partially occulted sources providing radial (vertical) spatial resolution; and (3) directivity of the emission measured through stereoscopic observations and the center-to-limb variation of the occurrence frequency of hard X-ray flares. The characteristics of the energetic electrons are found to be quite distinct in impulsive and gradual hard X-ray flares. In impulsive flares the nonthermal electron spectrum seems to extend down to about 2 keV, indicating that the total energy of nonthermal electrons is much larger than that assumed in the past.

Kane, S. R.

Improving Forecast Skill by Assimilation of Quality-controlled AIRS Temperature Retrievals under Partially Cloudy Conditions

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on board the Aqua satellite has been long recognized as an important contributor towards the improvement of weather forecasts. At this time only a small fraction of the total data produced by AIRS is being used by operational weather systems. In fact, in addition to effects of thinning and quality control, the only AIRS data assimilated are radiance observations of channels unaffected by clouds. Observations in mid-lower tropospheric sounding AIRS channels are assimilated primarily under completely clear-sky conditions, thus imposing a very severe limitation on the horizontal distribution of the AIRS-derived information. In this work it is shown that the ability to derive accurate temperature profiles from AIRS observations in partially cloud-contaminated areas can be utilized to further improve the impact of AIRS observations in a global model and forecasting system. The analyses produced by assimilating AIRS temperature profiles obtained under partial cloud cover result in a substantially colder representation of the northern hemisphere lower midtroposphere at higher latitudes. This temperature difference has a strong impact, through hydrostatic adjustment, in the midtropospheric geopotential heights, which causes a different representation of the polar vortex especially over northeastern Siberia and Alaska. The AIRS-induced anomaly propagates through the model's dynamics producing improved 5-day forecasts.

Reale, O.

NASA's Advancements in Space-Based Spectrometry Lead to Improvements in Weather Prediction and Understanding of Climate Processes

AIRS is a precision state of the art High Spectral Resolution Multi-detector IR grating array spectrometer that was launched into a polar orbit on EOS Aqua in 2002. AIRS measures most of the infra-red spectrum with very low noise from 650/cm to 2660/cm with a resolving power of 2400 at a spatial resolution of 13 km. The objectives of AIRS were to perform accurate determination of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles in up to 90% partial cloud cover conditions for the purpose of improving numerical weather prediction and understanding climate processes. AIRS data has also been used to determine accurate trace gas profiles. A brief overview of the retrieval methodology used to analyze AIRS observations under partial cloud cover will be presented and sample results will be shown from the weather and climate perspectives.

Susskind, Joel

New advances in the partial-reflection-drifts experiment using microprocessors

Improvements to the partial reflection drifts experiment are completed. The results of the improvements include real time processing and simultaneous measurements of the D region with coherent scatter. Preliminary results indicate a positive correlation between drift velocities calculated by both methods during a two day interval. The possibility now exists for extended observations between partial reflection and coherent scatter. In addition, preliminary measurements could be performed between partial reflection and meteor radar to complete a comparison of methods used to determine velocities in the D region.

Ruggerio, R. L.