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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Probing the tunability of magnetism with external pressure in metastable Sr 2 NiIrO 6 double perovskite

In Sr 2 NiIrO 6 long-range Ir-Ir antiferromagnetic exchange interactions have been reported to overcome the ferromagnetic Ni-Ir interactions hampering the otherwise expected ferromagnetic behavior. Prompted by this, a combination of x-ray absorption spectroscopy and x-ray diffraction at high pressure is used here to investigate the interplay between the magnetic structure of the Ir sublattice and lattice degrees of freedom. In this work, the compression of Sr 2 NiIrO 6 drives an unexpected nonmonotonic change of the x-ray magnetic circular dichroism (XMCD) spectra: The intensity first decreases in the 0- to 18-GPa range, then shows an increase in the 18- to 30-GPa range and again decreases for higher pressures. The XMCD intensity, a measure of the net magnetization in the Ir sublattice, however, is found to remain very low in the whole pressure range so the observed changes do not correspond with a transition from antiferromagnetic to ferromagnetic or ferrimagnetic order. The evolution of the XMCD is better explained in terms of a weakening/strengthening of the long-range antiferromagnetic (AFM) IrIr interaction between ferromagnetic planes associated with the reduction of the lattice parameters. In particular, a correlation can be established between the evolution of the b/a ratio and the weakening/strengthening of the AFM interaction.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Direct Visualization of Surface Spin-Flip Transition in MnBi 4 Te 7

Here, we report direct visualization of spin-flip transition of the surface layer in antiferromagnet MnBi 4 Te 7 , a natural superlattice of alternating MnBi 2 Te 4 and Bi 2 Te 3 layers, using cryogenic magnetic force microscopy (MFM). The observation of magnetic contrast across domain walls and step edges confirms that the antiferromagnetic order persists to the surface layers. The magnetic field dependence of the MFM images reveals that the surface magnetic layer undergoes a first-order spin-flip transition at a magnetic field that is lower than the bulk transition, in excellent agreement with a revised Mills model. Our analysis suggests no reduction of the order parameter in the surface magnetic layer, implying robust ferromagnetism in the single-layer limit. The direct visualization of surface spin-flip transition not only opens up exploration of surface metamagnetic transitions in layered antiferromagnets, but also provides experimental support for realizing quantized transport in ultrathin films of MnBi 4 Te 7 and other natural superlattice topological magnets.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

SCULPT (Supervised Clustering and Uncovering Latent Patterns with Training) v1

SCULPT (Supervised Clustering and Uncovering Latent Patterns with Training) is a comprehensive data visualization and analysis application focused on working with COLTRIMS (COLd Target Recoil Ion Momentum Spectroscopy) data, which is used in atomic and molecular physics experiments. The application offers several powerful features: - Data uploading and processing capabilities for COLTRIMS files - Multiple visualization methods using UMAP (Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection) for dimensionality reduction - Interactive selection of data points across multiple views - Feature engineering through various methods: - Manual feature selection from calculated physics parameters - Deep autoencoder for dimension reduction - Genetic programming for discovering meaningful features - Mutual information-based feature selection - Multiple clustering approaches (DBSCAN, KMeans, Agglomerative) - Quality metrics for evaluating clustering results - Export capabilities for selections and generated features

Daoud, Hazem [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborator↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data-Driven Modeling and Correction of Vehicle Dynamics

We develop a data-driven framework for learning and correcting nonautonomous vehicle dynamics. Physics-based vehicle models are often simplified for tractability and therefore exhibit inherent model-form uncertainty, motivating the need for data-driven correction. Moreover, nonautonomous dynamics are governed by time-dependent control inputs, which pose challenges in learning predictive models directly from temporal snapshot data. To address these, we reformulate the vehicle dynamics via a local parameterization of the time-dependent inputs, yielding a modified system composed ofa sequence of local parametric dynamical systems. Here, we approximate these parametric systems using two complementary approaches. First, we employ the dimension reduction and interpolation in parameter space (DRIPS) methodology to construct efficient linear surrogate models, equipped with lifted observable spaces and manifold-based operator interpolation. This enables data-efficient learning of vehicle models whose dynamics admit accurate linear representations in the lifted spaces. Second, for more strongly nonlinear systems, we employ flow map learning (FML), a deep neural network (DNN) approach that approximates the parametric evolution map without requiring special treatment of nonlinearities. We further extend FML with a transfer-learning-based model correction procedure, enabling the correction of misspecified prior models using only a sparse set of high-fidelity or experimental measurements, without assuming a prescribed form for the correction term. Through a suite of numerical experiments on unicycle, simplified bicycle, and slip-based bicycle models, we demonstrate that DRIPS offers robust and highly data-efficient learning of nonautonomous vehicle dynamics, while FML provides expressive nonlinear modeling and effective correction of model-form errors under severe data scarcity.

data-driven modeling↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling of Glycolate Destruction in the Recycle Collection Tank

The Savannah River Site’s DWPF is being upgraded with the introduction of the NG flowsheet. Glycolic acid has been shown to be a superior alternative to formic acid for sludge processing. The new flowsheet improves or maintains necessary parameters such as 1) reduction of mercury, 2) adjustment of feed rheology, 3) pH stability, and 4) adjustment of melter oxidation/reduction potential. Further, the use of glycolic acid virtually eliminates the potential for catalytic hydrogen generation in DWPF processing DWPF process condensates are collected and returned to the Savannah River Site (SRS) CSTF. The RCT collects off-gas condensate during chemical processing, vitrification, and other unit operations performed in DWPF and is the singular return vessel delivering recycle effluent back to CSTF. Each batch of recycle will have a small amount of glycolate from chemical processing and melter off-gas condensates. To avoid potential flammability issues due to thermolysis of glycolate in the CSTF, Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) provided to Savannah River Remediation (SRR) at their request a Task Technical and Quality Assurance Plan (TTQAP) to quantify and mitigate glycolate returns via DWPF’s recycle stream. The request included testing of a process to oxidize glycolate and other organic species that are responsible for hydrogen generation from thermolysis. Following that work SRR provided a Task Technical Request (TTR) that requested process modeling. In 2021 a TTQAP was issued to cover the modeling work. Modeling draws data from laboratory scale studies using chemical simulants and radioactive waste samples. Chemical kinetic modeling was performed to evaluate the feasibility of using sodium permanganate to destroy glycolate in the RCT. The results from the laboratory studies were summarized in a series of reports. Reference 9 is a report of lab scale processing of actual DWPF Slurry Mix Evaporate Condensate Tank (SMECT) and Offgas Condensate Tank (OGCT) samples in the SRNL Shielded Cells. Tests at caustic conditions demonstrated sodium permanganate was effective in converting glycolate to oxalate, and permanganate (Mn 7+ ) is reduced to manganate (Mn 6+ ) with no significant formation of carbon dioxide or carbonate. Equation (1) was found to best describe the observed reaction of glycolate with permanganate under nominal (60 to 145 mg/L in RCT) glycolate entrainment conditions.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comprehensive Material Characterization and Simultaneous Model Calibration for Improved Computational Simulation Credibility

Computational simulation is increasingly relied upon for high-consequence engineering decisions, and a foundational element to solid mechanics simulations is a credible material model. Our ultimate vision is to interlace material characterization and model calibration in a real-time feedback loop, where the current model calibration results will drive the experiment to load regimes that add the most useful information to reduce parameter uncertainty. The current work investigated one key step to this Interlaced Characterization and Calibration (ICC) paradigm, using a finite load-path tree to incorporate history/path dependency of nonlinear material models into a network of surrogate models that replace computationally-expensive finite-element analyses. Our reference simulation was an elastoplastic material point subject to biaxial deformation with a Hill anisotropic yield criterion. Training data was generated using either a space-filling or adaptive sampling method, and surrogates were built using either Gaussian process or polynomial chaos expansion methods. Surrogate error was evaluated to be on the order of 10 ⁻5 and 10 ⁻3 percent for the space-filling and adaptive sampling training data, respectively. Direct Bayesian inference was performed with the surrogate network and with the reference material point simulator, and results agreed to within 3 significant figures for the mean parameter values, with a reduction in computational cost over 5 orders of magnitude. These results bought down risk regarding the surrogate network and facilitated a successful FY22-24 full LDRD proposal to research and develop the complete ICC paradigm.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Feasibility of using crystal channeling for the beam loss mitigation in Slow Extraction at 8GeV

The mitigation of the beam losses in slow extraction is becoming more and more demanding in accelerator applications for HEP as the beam power is gradually increasing. The successful demonstration of using the proton beam channeling at 450GeV to deflect the beam away from the extraction septa opens the new levels of improving the slow extraction efficiency. It is yet to be demonstrated that this method is still effective at low and medium proton beam energies. Here we present the promising results of the recent computer simulation studies of the septum shadowing at 8GeV for the Mu2e project slow extraction at Fermilab. Depending on the beam parameters the beam loss reduction is shown to be achievable in the range of 1/3 to factor of 3.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Oxidation of Glycolate in the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) Recycle Collection Tank - 20305

The Savannah River Site's Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) operations are being upgraded with the introduction of the Nitric-Glycolic Flowsheet. Glycolic acid has been shown superior to formic acid as the reducing acid used during chemical processing. The new flowsheet improves or maintains necessary parameters such as 1) reduction of mercury, 2) adjustment of feed rheology and 3) adjustment of melter oxidation/reduction potential. Further, the potential for catalytic hydrogen generation in DWPF processing is virtually eliminated. DWPF process condensates are collected and returned to the SRS Concentration, Storage and Transfer Facilities (CSTF). The Recycle Collection Tank (RCT) collects off-gas condensate during chemical processing, vitrification, and other unit operations performed in DWPF and is the singular return vessel delivering recycle effluent back to CSTF. Each batch of recycle may contain a small amount of glycolate from chemical processing and melter off-gas condensates. To avoid potential flammability issues due to thermolysis of glycolate in the CSTF, chemical oxidation within the RCT has been investigated as an option for mitigating the transfer of glycolate. Sodium permanganate has been down-selected as the best option for oxidation of glycolate. Testing was performed using both 2-L and 22-L reactors (16,800:1 and 1,530:1 scale by volume) with non-radioactive waste simulants to approximate the expected RCT compositions. RCT simulants were evaluated at various process pH and temperature conditions. Also, RCT operations, namely the sequence of addition of corrosion inhibitors (NaOH and NaNO{sub 2}) versus a permanganate strike, were evaluated. Glycolate was introduced via a sludge simulant to mimic both expected entrainment and abnormal process foam-over conditions - the range being between 68 and 5100 mg/kg glycolate. Glycolate destruction was monitored by ion chromatography (IC). The corresponding manganese behavior was monitored in real-time using in situ ultraviolet-visible (UV-Vis) spectroscopy. RCT glycolate content can be reduced to below the IC detection limit within 90 minutes for all concentrations investigated. Ion Chromatography analysis revealed that under alkaline conditions, glycolate is primarily oxidized to oxalate with no significant formation of CO{sub 2} or carbonate, and nitrite is not oxidized to nitrate. Initially, complete oxidation of organics species and nitrite was assumed. Determination of the mechanistic chemical reaction has allowed the required amount of permanganate to be more accurately predicted and the total addition to be significantly reduced. UV-Vis measurements reveal that permanganate (Mn{sup 7+}) is reduced to manganate (Mn{sup 6+}) in the RCT. The oxidant stoichiometry is defined by using the initial permanganate to glycolate (P/G) molar ratio. At low initial glycolate concentration (68 and 140 mg/kg), the minimum required initial permanganate to glycolate (P/G) molar ratio was found to be 5-6. With high initial glycolate concentrations (5100 mg/kg) a lower (P/G) molar ratio of ∼2.5 was needed. The final portion of this effort supporting the nitric/glycolic flowsheet will be to test actual (fully radioactive) RCT samples as per the above simulant tests. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Group-equivariant autoencoder for identifying spontaneously broken symmetries

We introduce the group-equivariant autoencoder (GE autoencoder), a deep neural network (DNN) method that locates phase boundaries by determining which symmetries of the Hamiltonian have spontaneously broken at each temperature. We use group theory to deduce which symmetries of the system remain intact in all phases, and then use this information to constrain the parameters of the GE autoencoder such that the encoder learns an order parameter invariant to these “never-broken” symmetries. This procedure produces a dramatic reduction in the number of free parameters such that the GE-autoencoder size is independent of the system size. We include symmetry regularization terms in the loss function of the GE autoencoder so that the learned order parameter is also equivariant to the remaining symmetries of the system. By examining the group representation by which the learned order parameter transforms, we are then able to extract information about the associated spontaneous symmetry breaking. We test the GE autoencoder on the 2D classical ferromagnetic and antiferromagnetic Ising models, finding that the GE autoencoder (1) accurately determines which symmetries have spontaneously broken at each temperature; (2) estimates the critical temperature in the thermodynamic limit with greater accuracy, robustness, and time efficiency than a symmetry-agnostic baseline autoencoder; and (3) detects the presence of an external symmetry-breaking magnetic field with greater sensitivity than the baseline method. Lastly, we describe various key implementation details, including a quadratic-programming-based method for extracting the critical temperature estimate from trained autoencoders and calculations of the DNN initialization and learning rate settings required for fair model comparisons.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sub-100 mA/cm 2 CO 2 -to-CO Reduction Current Densities in Hierarchical Porous Gold Electrocatalysts Made by Direct Ink Writing and Dealloying

While most research efforts on CO 2 -to-CO reduction electrocatalysts focus on boosting their selectivity, the reduction rate, directly proportional to the reduction current density, is another critical parameter to be considered in practical applications. This is because mass transport associated with the diffusion of reactant/product species becomes a major concern at a high reduction rate. Nanostructured Au is a promising CO 2 -to-CO reduction electrocatalyst for its very high selectivity. However, the CO 2 -to-CO reduction current density commonly achieved in conventional nanostructured Au electrocatalysts is relatively low (in the range of 1–10 mA/cm 2 ) for practical applications. In this work, we combine direct ink writing-based additive manufacturing and dealloying to design a robust hierarchical porous Au electrocatalyst to improve the mass transport and achieve high CO 2 -to-CO reduction current densities on the order of 64.9 mA/cm 2 with CO partial current density of 33.8 mA/cm 2 at 0.55 V overpotential using an H-cell configuration. Although the current density achieved in our robust hierarchical porous Au electrocatalyst is one order of magnitude higher than the one achieved in conventional nanostructured electrocatalysts, we found that the selectivity of our system is relatively low, namely 52%, which suggests that mass transport remains a critical issue despite the hierarchical porous architecture. We further show that the bulk dimension of our electrocatalyst is a critical parameter governing the interplay between selectivity and reduction rate. In conclusion, the insights gained in this work shed new light on the design of electrocatalysts toward scale-up CO 2 reduction and beyond.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Response of the Current Climate to Land‐Ocean Contrasts in Parameterized Cumulus Entrainment

Abstract Cumulus entrainment substantially regulates the earth's climate but remains poorly constrained in global climate models. Recent studies have shown that cumulus bulk entrainment (or dilution) is particularly sensitive to continentality, with the entrainment rate in simulated maritime cumuli nearly double that of continental cumuli. This study examines the impacts of such land–ocean entrainment contrasts on the current climate using 21‐year simulations with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's High‐Resolution Atmospheric Model (HIRAM). In response to a 25% reduction in the HIRAM entrainment parameter c 0 over land, precipitation over tropical land regions increases by up to 40%. Along with directly facilitating enhanced convective precipitation, this c 0 reduction induces an increase in soil moisture, which may contribute to a further enhancement of convective precipitation over land. A 25% c 0 reduction over the oceans leads to more widespread modifications of convection patterns, with the strongest signal in the tropical Pacific. Deep convection shifts upstream (eastward) there, inducing enhanced large‐scale ascent over the central Pacific with compensating subsidence and reduced humidity and precipitation over the western Pacific (WP). Land–ocean variations in c 0 project onto the Pacific Walker circulation, with the 25% land reduction strengthening it by 4% and the 25% ocean reduction weakening it by 14%. These changes are driven by variations in convective and large‐scale stratiform heating over the Pacific. While reduced c 0 over land enhances diabatic heating in the Maritime Continent to strengthen the Walker circulation, reduced c 0 over the oceans decreases diabatic heating in the WP to weaken the Walker circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

CheKiPEUQ Intro 2: Harnessing Uncertainties from Data Sets, Bayesian Design of Experiments in Chemical Kinetics**

When choosing experimental conditions, Bayesian statistical tools can predict the experimental choices which will yield the highest information gain. Experimental choices could be temperature, pressure, reaction time, number of measurements, reactor volume, etc.. Three example analyses are presented here, each using the software Chemical Kinetics Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification (CheKiPEUQ). Information gain is a measure of reduction of uncertainty in a model's parameters. The three chemical system examples presented each illustrate Bayesian Design of Experiments using information gain. In the first chemical example, temperature selection impacts the information gain for the free energy of reaction in a two-component equilibrium reaction. In the second example, temperature and pressure are explored for a competitive adsorption Langmuir replacement reaction system. Finally, the third example is a catalytic membrane reactor which is a culmination of the previous examples. The catalytic membrane reactor has a complex and nonlinear response in the observables which is solved by numerical evaluation. In the three examples, the experimental conditions are treated as design variables for maximizing information gain.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring Parameter Redundancy in the Unitary Coupled-Cluster Ansätze for Hybrid Variational Quantum Computing

One of the commonly used chemical-inspired approaches in variational quantum computing is the unitary coupled-cluster (UCC) ansatze. Despite being a systematic way of approaching the exact limit, the number of parameters in the standard UCC ansatze exhibits unfavorable scaling with respect to the system size, hindering its practical use on near-term quantum devices. Efforts have been taken to propose some variants of UCC ansatze with better scaling. In this paper we explore the parameter redundancy in the preparation of unitary coupled-cluster singles and doubles (UCCSD) ansatze employing spin-adapted formulation, small amplitude filtration, and entropy-based orbital selection approaches. Numerical results of using our approach on some small molecules have exhibited a significant cost reduction in the number of parameters to be optimized and in the time to convergence compared with conventional UCCSD-VQE simulations. Further, we also discuss the potential application of some machine learning techniques in further exploring the parameter redundancy, providing a possible direction for future studies.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Karhunen–Loève deep learning method for surrogate modeling and approximate Bayesian parameter estimation

We evaluate the performance of the Karhunen-Loève Deep Neural Network (KL-DNN) framework for surrogate modeling and approximate Bayesian parameter estimation in partial differential equation models. In the surrogate model, the Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansions are used for the dimensionality reduction of the number of unknown parameters and variables, and a deep neural network is employed to relate the reduced space of parameters to that of the state variables. The KL-DNN surrogate model is used to formulate a maximum-a-posteriori-like least-squares problem, which is randomized to draw samples of the posterior distribution of the parameters. We test the proposed framework for a hypothetical unconfined aquifer via comparison with the forward MODFLOW and inverse PEST++ iterative ensemble smoother (IES) solutions as well as the state-of-the-art Fourier neural operator (FNO) and deep operator networks (DeepONets) operator learning surrogate models. Our results show that the KL-DNN surrogate model outperforms FNO and DeepONet for forward predictions. For solving inverse problems, the randomized algorithm provides the same or more accurate Bayesian predictions of the parameters than IES as evidenced by the higher log-predictive probability of both the estimated parameter field and the forecast hydraulic head. The posterior mean obtained from the randomized algorithm is closer to the reference parameter field than that obtained with FNO as the maximum a posteriori estimate.

Approximate Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Graphical Model for Fusing Diverse Microbiome Data

This paper develops a Bayesian graphical model for fusing disparate types of count data. The motivating application is the study of bacterial communities from diverse high-dimensional features, in this case, transcripts, collected from different treatments. In such datasets, there are no explicit correspondences between the communities and each corresponds to different factors, making data fusion challenging. We introduce a flexible multinomial-Gaussian generative model for jointly modeling such count data. This latent variable model jointly characterizes the observed data through a common multivariate Gaussian latent space that parameterizes the set of multinomial probabilities of the transcriptome counts. The covariance matrix of the latent variables induces a covariance matrix of co-dependencies between all the transcripts, effectively fusing multiple data sources. We present a computationally scalable variational Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for inferring the latent variables and the parameters of the model. Here, the inferred latent variables provide a common dimensionality reduction for visualizing the data and the inferred parameters provide a predictive posterior distribution. In addition to simulation studies that demonstrate the variational EM procedure, we apply our model to a bacterial microbiome dataset.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Film condensation with high heat fluxes and scaled experiments using pure steam for reactor containment cooling

Condensation tests were performed using a newly developed test facility for scaling the passive containment cooling system (PCCS) to a small modular reactor (SMR). The PCCS of the SMR plays a pivotal role in ensuring greater safety, reliability, and compactness than what is afforded by traditional reactors. Therefore, a well-designed PCCS is essential to SMRs. However, previous studies and test data were unsuitable for scaling, due to high variation in the test geometry and operating conditions. This study intends to close this research gap by using a novel designed scaled test facility consisting of vertical condensing test sections featuring 1-, 2-, and 4-inch-diameter condensing tubes with annular water cooling, and by applying superheated and saturated steam with different steam mass flow ranges of 5–25 g/s. Further, the primary test data, including axial temperatures, mass flow rates, and pressures, were used in conjunction with a standard data reduction method to estimate critical parameters such as heat fluxes, heat transfer coefficients, and condensation rates. These scaled test data would support improving empirical correlations and validating condensation models to identify scaling distortion for SMR PCCSs.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Implementing contact angle boundary conditions for second-order Phase-Field models of wall-bounded multiphase flows

In the present work, a general formulation is proposed to implement the contact angle boundary conditions for the second-order Phase-Field models, which is applicable to N-phase (N ≥ 2) moving contact line problems. To remedy the issue of mass change due to the contact angle boundary condition, a source term or Lagrange multiplier is added to the original second-order Phase-Field models, which is determined by the consistent and conservative volume distribution algorithm so that the summation of the order parameters and the consistency of reduction are not influenced. To physically couple the proposed formulation to the hydrodynamics, especially for large-density-ratio problems, the consistent formulation is employed. The reduction-consistent conservative Allen-Cahn models are chosen as examples to illustrate the application of the proposed formulation. The numerical scheme that preserves the consistency and conservation of the proposed formulation is employed to demonstrate its effectiveness. Results produced by the proposed formulation are in good agreement with the exact and/or asymptotic solutions. The proposed method captures complex dynamics of moving contact line problems having large density ratios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigating uncertainties in human adaptation and their impacts on water scarcity in the Colorado river Basin, United States

The Colorado River Basin (CRB) supports the water supply for seven states and forty million people in the Western United States (US) and has been suffering an extensive drought for more than two decades. As climate change continues to reshape water resources distribution in the CRB, its impact can differ in intensity and location, resulting in variations in human adaptation behaviors. The feedback from human systems in response to the environmental changes and the associated uncertainty is critical to water resources management, especially for water-stressed basins. This paper investigates how human adaptation affects water scarcity uncertainty in the CRB and highlights the uncertainties in human behavior modeling. Our focus is on agricultural water consumption, as approximately 80% of the water consumption in the CRB is used in agriculture. We adopted a coupled agent-based and water resources modeling approach for exploring human-water system dynamics, in which an agent is a human behavior model that simulates a farmer’s water consumption decisions. We examined uncertainties at the system, agent, and parameter levels through uncertainty, clustering, and sensitivity analyses. The uncertainty analysis results suggest that the CRB water system may experience 13 to 30 years of water shortage during the 2019–2060 simulation period, depending on the paths of farmers’ adaptation. The clustering analysis identified three decision-making classes: bold, prudent, and forward-looking, and quantified the probabilities of an agent belonging to each class. The sensitivity analysis results indicated agents whose decision-making models require further investigation and the parameters with the higher uncertainty reduction potentials. Here, by conducting numerical experiments with the coupled model, this paper presents quantitative and qualitative information about farmers’ adaptation, water scarcity uncertainties, and future research directions for improving human behavior modeling.

Agent-based modeling↗