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At least 73 records · Page 4

Nonlinear dynamics and predictability in the atmospheric sciences

Systematic applications of nonlinear dynamics to studies of the atmosphere and climate are reviewed for the period 1987-1990. Problems discussed include paleoclimatic applications, low-frequency atmospheric variability, and interannual variability of the ocean-atmosphere system. Emphasis is placed on applications of the successive bifurcation approach and the ergodic theory of dynamical systems to understanding and prediction of intraseasonal, interannual, and Quaternary climate changes.

Ghil, M.↗

The modulation of the low-latitude radiation budget by cloud and surface forcing on interannual time scales

Regionally confined interannual perturbations in the tropical radiation budget associated with east-west circulations are examined along with the forcing mechanisms of these perturbations in relation to surface and cloudiness variability. A zonal harmonic analysis of emitted longwave radiation emphasizes that these variations are largely controlled at the planetary wave scale. The overall effect leads to an approximately 50 deg/yr propagation phase speed that is considerably slower than the oceanic Kelvin wave capable of driving east-west longwave (LW) anomalies through SST feedback. Examination of the time-dependent radiative energetics over the tropics reveals that the aforementioned anomaly LW propagation is mainly due to cloud forcing associated with east-west circulation changes. Diabatic heating associated with coupled ocean-atmosphere feedback appears to be larger responsible for the LW anomaly propagation.

Sohn, Byung-Ju↗

The Global Ocean Observing System

A Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) should be established now with international coordination (1) to address issues of global change, (2) to implement operational ENSO forecasts, (3) to provide the data required to apply global ocean circulation models, and (4) to extract the greatest value from the one billion dollar investment over the next ten years in ocean remote sensing by the world's space agencies. The objectives of GOOS will focus on climatic and oceanic predictions, on assessing coastal pollution, and in determining the sustainability of living marine resources and ecosystems. GOOS will be a complete system including satellite observations, in situ observations, numerical modeling of ocean processes, and data exchange and management. A series of practical and economic benefits will be derived from the information generated by GOOS. In addition to the marine science community, these benefits will be realized by the energy industries of the world, and by the world's fisheries. The basic oceanic variables that are required to meet the oceanic and predictability objectives of GOOS include wind velocity over the ocean, sea surface temperature and salinity, oceanic profiles of temperature and salinity, surface current, sea level, the extent and thickness of sea ice, the partial pressure of CO2 in surface waters, and the chlorophyll concentration of surface waters. Ocean circulation models and coupled ocean-atmosphere models can be used to evaluate observing system design, to assimilate diverse data sets from in situ and remotely sensed observations, and ultimately to predict future states of the system. The volume of ocean data will increase enormously over the next decade as new satellite systems are launched and as complementary in situ measuring systems are deployed. These data must be transmitted, quality controlled, exchanged, analyzed, and archived with the best state-of-the-art computational methods.

Kester, Dana↗

A global monthly sea surface temperature climatology

The paper presents a new global 2 deg x 2 deg monthly sea surface temperature (SST) climatology, referred here to as the Shea-Trenberth-Reynolds (STR) climatology, which was derived by modifying a 1950-1979-based SST climatology from the Climate Analysis Center (CAC), by using data from the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set to improve the SST estimates in the regions of the Kuroshio and the Gulf Stream. A comparison of the STR climatology with the Alexander and Mobley SST climatology showed that the STR climatology is warmer in the Northern Hemisphere, and colder poleward of 45 deg S.

Shea, Dennis J.↗

The influence of the Alaskan Gyre on the coastal circulation in the Gulf of Alaska

The circulation of the northeast Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of Alaska is simulated by means of a reduced-gravity wind-driven model to study seasonal and interannual flow variability. The circulation in the NE Pacific is discussed emphasizing its ramifications for the physical domain, equations, and boundary conditions of the numerical model. The pseudostress fields used to drive the model are based on 20 years of data from the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set and are analyzed with empirical orthogonal function analysis. The monthly stresses from 1986-89 are used to drive the model, and regional oceanographic features are reproduced including the Alaskan Gyre, Coastal Current, the Sitka eddy, and a severe cyclonic eddy. Comparisons with experimental data show that the high-resolution baroclinic model is valid and demonstrates the applicability of reduced-gravity models.

Heim, Paul K., II↗

An analysis of the relationship between cloud anomalies and sea surface temperature anomalies in a global circulation model

The relationship between the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and the anomalies of the monthly mean cloud cover (including the high-level, low-level, and total cloud cover), the outgoing longwave radiation, and the reflected solar radiation was analyzed using a least absolute deviations regression at each grid point over the open ocean for a 6-yr period. The results indicate that cloud change in association with a local 1-C increase in SSTAs cannot be used to predict clouds in a potential future world where all the oceans are 1-C warmer than at present, because much of the observed cloud changes are due to circulation changes, which in turn are related not only to changes in SSTAs but to changes in SSTA gradients. However, because SSTAs are associated with changes in the local ocean-atmosphere moisture and heat fluxes as well as significant changes in circulation (such as ENSO), SSTAs can serve as a surrogate for many aspects of global climate change.

Peterson, Thomas C.↗

On the structure of the Southern Oscillation

A realistic oceanic general circulation model is forced with winds observed over the tropical Pacific between 1967 and 1979. The structure of the simulated Southern Oscillation is strikingly different in the western and eastern sides of the basin, because the principal interannual zonal-wind fluctuations are confined to the west and are in the form of an equatorial jet. This causes thermocline displacements to have maxima off the equator in the west (where the curl of the wind is large) but on the equator in the east. Zonal phase propagation, both on and off the equator, is at different speeds in the west and east. The phase pattern is complex, and there is, on interannual time scale, no explicit evidence of individual equatorial waves. These results lead to a modification of the 'delayed oscillator' mechanism originally proposed by Schopf and Suarez to explain a continual Southern Oscillation. The results also permit an evaluation of the various coupled ocean-atmosphere models that simulate the Southern Oscillation and indicate which measurements are necessary to determine which models are most relevant to reality.

Chao, YI↗

Comparison of ocean surface solar irradiance in the GLA General Circulation Model and satellite-based calculations

A global, 7-year satellite-based record of ocean surface solar irradiance (SSI) is used to assess the realism of ocean SSI simulated by the nine-layer Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) General Circulation Model (GCM). January and July climatologies of net SSI produced by the model are compared with corresponding satellite climatologies for the world oceans between 54 deg N and 54 deg S. This comparison of climatologies indicates areas of strengths and weaknesses in the GCM treatment of cloud-radiation interactions, the major source of model uncertainty. Realism of ocean SSI is also important for applications such as incorporating the GLA GCM into a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. The results show that the GLA GCM simulates too much SSI in the extratropics and too little in the tropics, especially in the summer hemisphere. These discrepancies reach magnitudes of 60 W/sq m and more. The discrepancies are particularly large in the July case off the western coast of North America. Positive and negative discrepancies in SSI are shown to be consistent with discrepancies in planetary albedo.

Chertock, Beth↗

An overview of the radiation component of the NASA TOGA-COARE experiment

During January and February, 1993, the Physical Climate Branch of NASA sponsored an aircraft program in support of the Tropical Ocean - Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE). The NASA program was integrated with and contributed directly to the COARE objectives, but had as its primary foci the measurement of convection and precipitation related to the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) and the measurement of the physical and radiative properties of tropical cirrus related to the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE). This brief overview will concentrate on the measurements associated with FIRE and ISCCP.

Ackerman, Thomas↗

A comparison between general circulation model simulations using two sea surface temperature datasets for January 1979

Simulations with the UCLA atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) using two different global sea surface temperature (SST) datasets for January 1979 are compared. One of these datasets is based on Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) (SSTs) at locations where there are ship reports, and climatology elsewhere; the other is derived from measurements by instruments onboard NOAA satellites. In the former dataset (COADS SST), data are concentrated along shipping routes in the Northern Hemisphere; in the latter dataset High Resolution Infrared Sounder (HIRS SST), data cover the global domain. Ensembles of five 30-day mean fields are obtained from integrations performed in the perpetual-January mode. The results are presented as anomalies, that is, departures of each ensemble mean from that produced in a control simulation with climatological SSTs. Large differences are found between the anomalies obtained using COADS and HIRS SSTs, even in the Northern Hemisphere where the datasets are most similar to each other. The internal variability of the circulation in the control simulation and the simulated atmospheric response to anomalous forcings appear to be linked in that the pattern of geopotential height anomalies obtained using COADS SSTs resembles the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF 1) in the control simulation. The corresponding pattern obtained using HIRS SSTs is substantially different and somewhat resembles EOF 2 in the sector from central North America to central Asia. To gain insight into the reasons for these results, three additional simulations are carried out with SST anomalies confined to regions where COADS SSTs are substantially warmer than HIRS SSTs. The regions correspond to warm pools in the northwest and northeast Pacific, and the northwest Atlantic. These warm pools tend to produce positive geopotential height anomalies in the northeastern part of the corresponding oceans. Both warm pools in the Pacific produce large-scale circulation anomalies with a pattern that resembles that obtained using COADS SSTs as well as EOF 1 of the control simulation; the warm pool in the Atlantic does not. These results suggest that the differences obtained with COADS SSTs and HIRS SSTs are mostly due to the differences in the datasets over the northern Pacific. There was a blocking episode near Greenland in late January 1979. Both simulations with warm SST anomalies over the northwest and northeast Pacific show a tendency toward increased incidence of North Atlantic blocking; the simulation with warm SST anomalies over the northwest Atlantic shows a tendency toward decreased incidence. These results suggest that features in both SST datasets that do not have a counterpart in the other dataset contribute signficantly to the differences between the simulated and observed fields. The results of this study imply that uncertainties in current SST distributions for the world oceans can be as important as the SST anomalies themselves in terms of their impact on the atmospheric circulation. Caution should be exercised, therefore, when linking anomalous circulation and SST patterns, especially in long-range prediction.

Ose, Tomoaki↗

Preferred latitudes of the intertropical convergence zone

The latitude preference of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is examined on the basis of observations, theory, and a modeling analysis. Observations show that convection is enhanced at latitudes of about 4 deg to 10 deg relative to the equator, even in regions where the sea surface temperature (SST) is maximum on the equator. Both linear shallow-water theory and a moist primitive equation model suggest a new explanation for the off-equatorial latitude preference of the ITCZ that requires neither the existence of zonally propagating disturbances nor an off-equatorial maximum in SST. The shallow-water theory indicates that a finite-width, zonally oriented, midtropospheric heat source (i.e., an ITCZ) produces the greatest local low-level convergence when placed a finite distance away from the equator. This result suggests that an ITCZ is most likely to be supported via low-level convergence of moist energy when located at these "preferred" latitudes away from the equator. For a plausible range of heating widths and damping parameters, the theoretically predicted latitude is approximately equal to the observed position (s) of the ITCZ (s). Analysis with an axially symmetric, moist, primitive equation model indicates that when the latent heating field is allowed to be determined internally, a positive feedback develops between the midtropospheric latent heating and the low-level convergence, with the effect of enhancing the organization of convection at latitudes of about 4 deg to 12 deg. Numerical experiments show that (1) two peaks in convective precipitation develop straddling the equator when the SST maximum is located on the equator; (2) steady ITCZ-like structures form only when the SST maximum is located away from the equator; and (3) peaks in convection can develop away from the maximum in SST, with a particular preference for latitudes of about 4 deg to 12 deg, even in the ('cold') hemisphere without the SST maximum. The relationship between this mechanism and earlier theories is discussed, as are implications for the coupled ocean-atmosphere system and the roles played by midlevel latent heating and SST gradients in forcing the low-level atmospheric circulation in the tropics.

Waliser, Duane E.↗

Multiscale low-frequency circulation modes in the global atmosphere

In this paper, fundamental multiscale circulation modes in the global atmosphere are identified with the objective of providing better understanding of atmospheric low-frequency variabilities over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. With the use of a combination of rotated principal component technique, singular spectrum analysis, and phase space portraits, three categories of basic multiscale modes in the atmosphere are found. The first is the interannual-mode (IAM), which is dominated by time scales longer than a year and can be attributed to heating and circulation anomalies associated with the coupled tropical ocean-atmosphere, in particular the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The second is a set of tropical intraseasonal modes consisting of three separate multiscale patterns (ISO-1, -2, -3) related to tropical heating that can be identified with the different phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), including its teleconnection to the extratropics. The ISO spatial and temporal patterns suggest that the extratropical wave train in the North Pacific and North America is related to heating over the Maritime Continent and that the evolution of the MJO around the equator may require forcing from the extratropics spawning convection over the Indian Ocean. The third category represents extratropical intraseasonal oscillations arising from internal dynamics of the basic-state circulation. In the Northern Hemisphere, there are two distinct circulation modes with multiple frequencies in this category: the Pacific/North America (PNA) and the North Atlantic/Eurasia (NAE). In the Southern Hemisphere, two phase-locked modes (PSA-1 and PSA-2) are found depicting an eastward propagating wave train from eastern Australia, via the Pacific South America to the South Atlantic. The extratropical modes exhibit temporal characteristics such as phase locking and harmonic oscillations possibly associated with quadratically nonlinear dynamical systems. Additionally, the observed monthly and seasonal anomalies arise from a complex interplay of the various multiscale low-frequency modes. The relative dominance of the different modes varies widely from month to month and from year to year. On the monthly time scale, while one or two mechanisms may dominate in one year, no single mechanism seems to dominate for all years. There are indications that when the IAM, that is, ENSO heating patterns are strong, the extratropical modes may be suppressed and vice versa. For the seasonal mean, the interannual mode tends to dominate and the contribution from the PNA remains quite significant.

Lau, K.-M.↗

The integrated sounding system: Description and preliminary observations from TOGA COARE

An Integrated Sounding System (ISS) that combines state-of-the-art remote and in situ sensors into a single transportable facility has been developed jointly by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Aeronomy Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/AL). The instrumentation for each ISS includes a 915-MHz wind profiler, a Radio Acoustic Sounding System (RASS), an Omega-based NAVAID sounding system, and an enhanced surface meteorological station. The general philosophy behind the ISS is that the integration of various measurement systems overcomes each system's respective limitations while taking advantage of its positive attributes. The individual observing systems within the ISS provide high-level data products to a central workstation that manages and integrates these measurements. The ISS software package performs a wide range of functions: real-time data acquisition, database support, and graphical displays; data archival and communications; and operational and posttime analysis. The first deployment of the ISS consists of six sites in the western tropical Pacific--four land-based deployments and two ship-based deployments. The sites serve the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) of the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program and TOGA's enhanced atmospheric monitoring effort. Examples of ISS data taken during this deployment are shown in order to demonstrate the capabilities of this new sounding system and to demonstrate the performance of these in situ and remote sensing instruments in a moist tropical environment. In particular, a strong convective outflow with a pronounced impact of the atmospheric boundary layer and heat fluxes from the ocean surface was examined with a shipboard ISS. If these strong outflows commonly occur, they may prove to be an important component of the surface energy budget of the western tropical Pacific.

Parsons, David↗

A regional simulation of marine boundary-layer clouds

A regional version of a two-layer model is used to simulate marine boundary-layer clouds over an area (20 deg - 42 deg and 117 - 145 deg W) of the eastern North Pacific. The large-scale conditions requried for the model are provided by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses and the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set. The simulated cloud-top height and fractional cloudiness are compared with satellite data. The model predicts a realistic pattern of cloud-top height, although the heights appear to be overestimated in the southwest and underestimated along the eastern border of the domain. The overall simulated cloudiness is qualitatively comparable to the satellite derived, but the model predicts excessive cloudiness over cold ocean surfaces and insufficient cloudiness over an area centered at 30 deg N, 130 deg W. The possible causes for these discrepancies are discussed. Budget studies show that horizontal advection contributes substantially to the cloud-top height and cloud-layer moisture budgets. Thus, one may need to consider the effects of horizontal advection when validating steady-state solutions of a one-dimensional model. The simulated cloudiness is shown to be sensitive to large-scale subsidence, moisture above the clouds, and drizzle. An increase in the large-scale divergence by 2 x 10(exp -6)/sec decreases average cloudiness for the area by 30%. An increase in the moisture at 850 mb by 2 g/kg increases the cloudiness by 20%. The suppression of drizzle in the model increases the cloudiness by 34% and significantly changes its pattern.

Wang, Shouping↗

Air-sea interactions and precipitation over the tropical oceans

In this lecture, the author principally discusses air-sea exchanges that are relevant to climate and global problems. The processes of interest are those acting over time scales of months to decades, which in some instances are influenced by smaller-time-scale processes, down to the diurnal time scale. The repsective influence of these processes varies with regions, seasons and scales over which they occur and, because these processes are mostly nonlinear, scale interactions can be quite complex. Owing to the breadth of the topic addressed, the discussion is mostly focused on the tropical regions where air-sea interactions and precipitation processes eventually affect the entire globe. This allows a look in more detail at some air-sea processes, such as those associated with the El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO). This oscillation, which affects the climate of the entire globe, acts over periods of a year or longer and is caused, primarily, by sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the tropical Pacific. As a result, SST variability is often used as an indicator of coupled ocean-atmosphere low-frequency variability. Global or basin scale processes can uniquely be observed from space-born instruments with the coverage required. Space based techniques have been developed during the last decade which can now be used to illustrate the scientific issues presented and the presentation concludes with an overview of some Earth Observing System (EOS) capabilities for addressing air-sea interactions and hydrology issues.

Gautier, C.↗

Cloud-Aerosol Interactions in Tropical Storms

During the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (COARE) of the Tropical Ocean and the Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program we measured cloud and aerosol particles aboard the NASA DC-8 over the warm pool of the western Pacific. Instruments on the aircraft included a condensation nuclei counter, optical particle counters, two-dimensional shadow probes and an ice crystal replicator. The size range covered by these instruments was from =0.01 micron to 6.4 mm diameter; particle shapes were determined for particles of sizes D greater than 1 micron.

Puesschel, R. F.↗

Photosynthetic fractionation of 13C and concentrations of dissolved CO2 in the central equatorial Pacific during the last 255,000 years

Carbon isotopically based estimates of CO2 levels have been generated from a record of the photosynthetic fractionation of 13C [is equivalent to epsilon(p)] in a central equatorial Pacific sediment core that spans the last approximately 255 ka. Contents of 13C in phytoplanktonic biomass were determined by analysis of C37 alkadienones. These compounds are exclusive products of Prymnesiophyte algae which at present grow most abundantly at depths of 70-90 m in the central equatorial Pacific. A record of the isotopic composition of dissolved CO2 was constructed from isotopic analyses of the planktonic foraminifera Neogloboquadrina dutertrei, which calcifies at 70-90 m in the same region. Values of epsilon(p), derived by comparison of the organic and inorganic delta values, were transformed to yield concentrations of dissolved CO2 [is equivalent to c(e)] based on a new, site-specific calibration of the relationship between epsilon(p) and c(e). The calibration was based on reassessment of existing epsilon(p) versus c(e) data, which support a physiologically based model in which epsilon(p) is inversely related to c(e). Values of PCO2, the partial pressure of CO2 that would be in equilibrium with the estimated concentrations of dissolved CO2, were calculated using Henry's law and the temperature determined from the alkenone-unsaturation index U(K/37). Uncertainties in these values arise mainly from uncertainties about the appropriateness (particularly over time) of the site-specific relationship between epsilon(p) and 1/c(e). These are discussed in detail and it is concluded that the observed record of epsilon(p) most probably reflects significant variations in delta pCO2, the ocean-atmosphere disequilibrium, which appears to have ranged from approximately 110 microatmospheres during glacial intervals (ocean > atmosphere) to approximately 60 microatmospheres during interglacials. Fluxes of CO2 to the atmosphere would thus have been significantly larger during glacial intervals. If this were characteristic of large areas of the equatorial Pacific, then greater glacial sinks for the equatorially evaded CO2 must have existed elsewhere. Statistical analysis of air-sea pCO2 differences and other parameters revealed significant (p<0.01) inverse correlations of delta pCO2 with sea surface temperature and with the mass accumulation rate of opal. The former suggests response to the strength of upwelling, the latter may indicate either drawdown of CO2 by siliceous phytoplankton or variation of [CO2]/[Si(OH)4] ratios in upwelling waters.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation and Future Soybean Prices

Recently, it was shown that the application of a method combining singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and the maximum entropy method to univariate indicators of the coupled ocean-atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can be helpful in determining whether an El Nino (EN) or La Nina (LN) event will occur. SSA - a variant of principal component analysis applied in the time domain - filters out variability unrelated to ENSO and separates the quasi-biennial (QB), two-to-three year variability, from a lower-frequency (LF) four-to-six year EN-LN cycle; the total variance associated with ENSO combines the QB and LF modes. ENSO has been known to affect weather conditions over much of the globe. For example, EN events have been connected with unusually rainy weather over the Central and Western US, while the opposite phases of the oscillation (LN) have been plausibly associated with extreme dry conditions over much of the same geographical area...

Keppenne, C.↗