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DOE OSTI2022

Utilizing commercial heating, ventilating, and air conditioning systems to provide grid services: A review

The modern power grid faces multiple challenges due to an increase in the adoption of renewable generation, such as dynamically balancing supply and demand at different time scales. Demand side management in buildings plays a vital role in achieving this balance because buildings can provide grid services through a variety of building assets. However, the development of grid-interactive, efficient buildings is still in its infancy, and a systematic and holistic understanding of grid service delivery strategies in terms of energy efficiency, load shifting, load shedding and load modulating is still limited. This paper is a comprehensive review of the development and application of building-level control strategies for utilizing heating, ventilating, and air conditioning systems to provide grid services. These strategies have been investigated through numerical and experimental studies. Control algorithms, such as heuristic rule-based control and model-based control, have been used to enable the automatic control delivery of grid services. The advantages and disadvantages of the strategies are summarized and discussed. Finally, research trends are also identified, which include considering predicted mean vote-based and occupant-based thermal comfort, modeling of occupant behavior, integrating power grid operations with building control, and combining different demand flexibility modes in the control design.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hardware-Based Emulator with Deep Learning Model for Building Energy Control and Prediction Based on Occupancy Sensors’ Data

Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) is the largest source of residential energy consumption. Occupancy sensors’ data can be used for HVAC control since it indicates the number of people in the building. HVAC and sensors form a typical cyber-physical system (CPS). In this paper, we aim to build a hardware-based emulation platform to study the occupancy data’s features, which can be further extracted by using machine learning models. In particular, we propose two hardware-based emulators to investigate the use of wired/wireless communication interfaces for occupancy sensor-based building CPS control, and the use of deep learning to predict the building energy consumption with the sensor data. We hypothesize is that the building energy consumption may be predicted by using the occupancy data collected by the sensors, and question what type of prediction model should be used to accurately predict the energy load. Another hypothesis is that an in-lab hardware/software platform could be built to emulate the occupancy sensing process. The machine learning algorithms can then be used to analyze the energy load based on the sensing data. To test the emulator, the occupancy data from the sensors is used to predict energy consumption. The synchronization scheme between sensors and the HVAC server will be discussed. We have built two hardware/software emulation platforms to investigate the sensor/HVAC integration strategies, and used an enhanced deep learning model—which has sequence-to-sequence long short-term memory (Seq2Seq LSTM)—with an attention model to predict the building energy consumption with the preservation of the intrinsic patterns. Because the long-range temporal dependencies are captured, the Seq2Seq models may provide a higher accuracy by using LSTM architectures with encoder and decoder. Meanwhile, LSTMs can capture the temporal and spatial patterns of time series data. The attention model can highlight the most relevant input information in the energy prediction by allocating the attention weights. The communication overhead between the sensors and the HVAC control server can also be alleviated via the attention mechanism, which can automatically ignore the irrelevant information and amplify the relevant information during CNN training. Our experiments and performance analysis show that, compared with the traditional LSTM neural network, the performance of the proposed method has a 30% higher prediction accuracy.

Ye, Zhijing↗
DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic simulation of occupant-driven energy use in a bottom-up residential building stock model

The residential buildings sector is one of the largest electricity consumers worldwide and contributes disproportionally to peak electricity demand in many regions. Strongly driven by occupant activities, household energy consumption is stochastic and heterogeneous in nature. However, most residential energy models applied by industry use homogeneous, deterministic activity schedules, which work well for predictions of annual energy consumption, but can result in unrealistic hourly or sub-hourly electric load profiles, with exaggerated or muted peaks. The increasing proportion of variable renewable energy generators means that representing the heterogeneity and stochasticity of occupant behavior is now crucial for reliable planning at both bulk-power and distribution-system scales. This work presents a novel and open-source occupancy simulation approach that can simulate a diverse set of individual occupant and household event schedules for all major electricity, fuel, and hot water end uses. To accomplish this, we evaluated three alternative occupant activity simulation approaches before selecting a hybrid combining time-inhomogeneous Markov chains and probability-sampling of event durations and magnitudes. Further, we integrated the stochastic occupancy simulation with an open-source bottom-up physics-simulation building stock model and published a set of 550,000 diverse household end-use activity schedules representing a national housing stock. The simulator was verified against time-use survey data, and simulation results were validated against measured end-use electricity data for accuracy and reliability. While we use data for the United States, our application demonstrates how similar approaches could be applied using the time-use survey data collected in many countries around the world.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Illustrating galaxy–halo connection in the DESI era with illustrisTNG

ABSTRACT We employ the hydrodynamical simulation illustrisTNG to inform the galaxy–halo connection of the Luminous Red Galaxy (LRG) and Emission Line Galaxy (ELG) samples of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey at redshift z ∼ 0.8. Specifically, we model the galaxy colours of illustrisTNG and apply sliding DESI colour–magnitude cuts, matching the DESI target densities. We study the halo occupation distribution (HOD) model of the selected samples by matching them to their corresponding dark matter haloes in the illustrisTNG dark matter run. We find the HOD of both the LRG and ELG samples to be consistent with their respective baseline models, but also we find important deviations from common assumptions about the satellite distribution, velocity bias, and galaxy secondary biases. We identify strong evidence for concentration-based and environment-based occupational variance in both samples, an effect known as ‘galaxy assembly bias’. The central and satellite galaxies have distinct dependencies on secondary halo properties, showing that centrals and satellites have distinct evolutionary trajectories and should be modelled separately. These results serve to inform the necessary complexities in modelling galaxy–halo connection for DESI analyses and also prepare for building high-fidelity mock galaxies. Finally, we present a shuffling-based clustering analysis that reveals a 10–15 ${{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ excess in the LRG clustering of modest statistical significance due to secondary galaxy biases. We also find a similar excess signature for the ELGs, but with much lower statistical significance. When a larger hydrodynamical simulation volume becomes available, we expect our analysis pipeline to pinpoint the exact sources of such excess clustering signatures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Toward Accurate Modeling of Galaxy Clustering on Small Scales: Constraining the Galaxy-halo Connection with Optimal Statistics

Applying halo models to analyze the small-scale clustering of galaxies is a proven method for characterizing the connection between galaxies and their host halos. Such works are often plagued by systematic errors or limited to clustering statistics that can be predicted analytically. In this work, we employ a numerical mock-based modeling procedure to examine the clustering of Sloan Digital Sky Survey DR7 galaxies. We apply a standard halo occupation distribution (HOD) model to dark matter only simulations with a ΛCDM cosmology. To constrain the theoreStical models, we utilize a combination of galaxy number density and selected scales of the projected correlation function, redshift-space correlation function, group multiplicity function, average group velocity dispersion, mark correlation function, and counts-in-cells statistics. We design an algorithm to choose an optimal combination of measurements that yields tight and accurate constraints on our model parameters. Compared to previous work using fewer clustering statistics, we find a significant improvement in the constraints on all parameters of our halo model for two different luminosity-threshold galaxy samples. Most interestingly, we obtain unprecedented high-precision constraints on the scatter in the relationship between galaxy luminosity and halo mass. However, our best-fit model results in significant tension (>4σ) for both samples, indicating the need to add second-order features to the standard HOD model. To guarantee the robustness of these results, we perform an extensive analysis of the systematic and statistical errors in our modeling procedure, including a first of its kind study of the sensitivity of our constraints to changes in the halo mass function due to baryonic physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

LandScan Mosaic

The LandScan program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), in collaboration with the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), continues to deliver the most accurate and up to date global, high resolution gridded population data. Additionally, the latest advancements in the LandScan HD methodology led to reduced latency in development of rapid updates for geopolitical events. With momentum towards reporting more up to date population estimates, feedback from the user community expressed interest in reporting population estimates in ranges - whether to express a level of uncertainty or confirm to leadership and stakeholders the modeled data are estimates. Building upon the need to understand uncertainty or confidence in the modeled data and report ranges at the global scale, LandScan Mosaic was developed. LandScan Mosaic represents the next generation of high-resolution population modeling, building upon the established success of previous LandScan HD iterations. While LandScan HD employed a deterministic big data fusion approach, LandScan Mosaic enhances this methodology by integrating advanced machine learning techniques to impute missing, yet crucial, population model parameters. This advancement allows for probabilistic modeling of building occupancy and population distribution, incorporating uncertainty quantification through Monte Carlo sampling methods. By combining big data fusion with machine learning-driven imputation and stochastic modeling, LandScan Mosaic provides a more comprehensive and robust representation of population dynamics. LandScan Mosaic will be following the in the footsteps of its longstanding counterpart LandScan Global and releasing a global gridded population raster, at the 3-arcsecond resolution. This technical report documents the current stage of development of LandScan Mosaic, detailing the methodologies and data sources behind the modeling. Stakeholders are encouraged to use this document as an authoritative reference for insight into Mosaic’s data development processes. However, readers should note that LandScan Mosaic remains in a late-stage research and development phase, and methodologies and data presented here are subject to refinements ahead of the anticipated global release in Summer 2025. Feedback and inquiries from users and stakeholders are welcomed as we continue to refine and enhance this important population resource.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Occupancy schedule development and its effect on OpenStudio prototype college building model

College buildings have unique characteristics compared with school buildings. Therefore, defining the realistic occupancy schedule in a prototype college building has significant research opportunities. In this study, the actual operating schedules of each space type were collected and generated based on the class reservation schedule and compared with the previous reference schedule (primary/secondary school). Here, the schedules were analyzed for their effect on the OpenStudio prototype college building model. The findings highlight that the use of a typical school building schedule in a college building impairs the granularity of information. The analysis shows significant differences between the previous occupancy schedule and the updated occupancy schedule of the college building, leading to a considerable decrease in occupancy density. Furthermore, the effect of these occupancy pattern changes on the prototype building model is examined. The variations were observed in minimum ventilation requirements, the average mechanical ventilation rate, and energy consumption attributed to changes in occupancy density.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Energy Prediction Impact of the Space Level Occupancy Schedule for a Primary School

By using the same occupant schedule for all spaces, a building level occupancy schedule in building energy modelling can reduce the cost and time of data collection, especially for large-scale simulations or when detailed occupancy data cannot be obtained. However, by describing the unique occupancy status in each space, a space level schedule can better reflect real-world scenarios. This research investigates the energy prediction impact of a space level occupancy schedule for primary school modelling in 16 ASHRAE climate zones. The results show that when switched from a building level to a space level occupancy schedule, the energy prediction difference is between -1.0% and 0.8%. Generally, the predicted building energy consumption using a space level occupancy schedule is higher than when using a building level occupancy schedule in hot and warm climate zones, but lower in other climate zones.

building energy model↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning-based CO 2 concentration prediction: Application to indoor air quality control using demand-controlled ventilation

There have been increasing concerns over the air quality inside buildings as high levels of bio-effluents can cause nausea, dizziness, headaches, and fatigue to the people working in those spaces. First published in 2004 as Standard 62.1, ASHRAE Standard 62.2-2019 requires highly occupied spaces to implement heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) that can dilute contaminants produced by occupants. In this regard, occupant-centric ventilation control has been regarded as an effective practice to maintain a satisfactory indoor air quality (IAQ) when dealing with highly variable occupancy environments. However, few established models in current literature and practice consider dynamic occupancy behavior and adaptive IAQ control. To address this gap, a dynamic indoor CO2 model is constructed using machine learning algorithms to forecast CO2concentrations across a range of forecasting horizons. Herein, we tuned and compared six state-of-the-algorithms—including Support Vector Machine, Ada Boost, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Logistic Regression, and Multilayer Perceptron. The algorithms’ performances are validated using CO 2 and historical meteorological data collected from a campus classroom with a variable occupancy rate. Simulation results showed that Multilayer Perceptron can strongly predict the volatile CO 2 behavior and also outperforms other algorithms in terms of accuracy. Furthermore, a control strategy capable of modeling and detecting dynamic patterns of CO 2 level is utilized to modulate the ventilation rate in real-time and also reduce the energy consumption. The proposed controller reduced the HVAC fan’s energy consumption by 51.4% and provide ventilation as needed per the ASHRAE standards.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

The DESI One-percent Survey: Evidence for Assembly Bias from Low-redshift Counts-in-cylinders Measurements

Abstract We explore the galaxy-halo connection information that is available in low-redshift samples from the early data release of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We model the halo occupation distribution (HOD) from z = 0.1 to 0.3 using Survey Validation 3 (SV3; a.k.a., the One-Percent Survey) data of the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey. In addition to more commonly used metrics, we incorporate counts-in-cylinders (CiC) measurements, which drastically tighten HOD constraints. Our analysis is aided by the Python package, galtab , which enables the rapid, precise prediction of CiC for any HOD model available in halotools . This methodology allows our Markov chains to converge with much fewer trial points, and enables even more drastic speedups due to its GPU portability. Our HOD fits constrain characteristic halo masses tightly and provide statistical evidence for assembly bias, especially at lower luminosity thresholds: the HOD of central galaxies in z ∼ 0.15 samples with limiting absolute magnitude M r < −20.0 and M r < −20.5 samples is positively correlated with halo concentration with a significance of 99.9% and 99.5%, respectively. Our models also favor positive central assembly bias for the brighter M r < −21.0 sample at z ∼ 0.25 (94.8% significance), but there is no significant evidence for assembly bias with the same luminosity threshold at z ∼ 0.15. We provide our constraints for each threshold sample’s characteristic halo masses, assembly bias, and other HOD parameters. These constraints are expected to be significantly tightened with future DESI data, which will span an area 100 times larger than that of SV3.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Suppressing the sample variance of DESI-like galaxy clustering with fast simulations

Ongoing and upcoming galaxy redshift surveys, such as the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey, will observe vast regions of sky and a wide range of redshifts. In order to model the observations and address various systematic uncertainties, N-body simulations are routinely adopted, however, the number of large simulations with sufficiently high mass resolution is usually limited by available computing time. Therefore, achieving a simulation volume with the effective statistical errors significantly smaller than those of the observations becomes prohibitively expensive. In this study, we apply the Convergence Acceleration by Regression and Pooling (CARPool) method to mitigate the sample variance of the DESI-like galaxy clustering in the AbacusSummit simulations, with the assistance of the quasi-N-body simulations FastPM. Based on the halo occupation distribution (HOD) models, we construct different FastPM galaxy catalogs, including the luminous red galaxies (LRGs), emission line galaxies (ELGs), and quasars, with their number densities and two-point clustering statistics well matched to those of AbacusSummit. We also employ the same initial conditions between AbacusSummit and FastPM to achieve high cross-correlation, as it is useful in effectively suppressing the variance. Our method of reducing noise in clustering is equivalent to performing a simulation with volume larger by a factor of 5 and 4 for LRGs and ELGs, respectively. We also mitigate the standard deviation of the LRG bispectrum with the triangular configurations k 2 = 2k 1 = 0.2 h Mpc -1 by a factor of 1.6. With smaller sample variance on galaxy clustering, we are able to constrain the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) scale parameters to higher precision. The CARPool method will be beneficial to better constrain the theoretical systematics of BAO, redshift space distortions (RSD) and primordial non-Gaussianity (NG).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ten questions concerning housing sufficiency

Housing sufficiency is an emerging concept in the provision of environmentally sustainable housing. It aims for demand-side strategies that reduce excessive, aggregate consumption levels to promote efficient resource utilization and sustainability in the construction sector while providing everyone with a decent standard of housing. However, it is challenging to implement as it interferes with housing-related social and cultural norms. This paper poses and answers ten questions that highlight the challenges, opportunities, and examples of sufficiency strategies in the context of housing provision and the environmental crisis. Question 1 discusses the need for sufficiency as a tool to complement supply-side strategies including efficiency and renewable energy strategies in providing housing. Question 2 examines the concept of housing sufficiency from different perspectives, such as ecological economics and social ecology. Question 3 summarizes the methods used to measure housing sufficiency, with specific focus on the upper and lower limits that respect planetary boundaries and basic human needs. Questions 4 and 5 describe the benefits, potential drawbacks, and rebound effects of housing sufficiency. Questions 6 and 7 examine housing sufficiency in developed and developing countries, respectively. Questions 8 and 9 discuss design strategies, housing occupancy, and tenure models that are needed for housing sufficiency. Finally, Question 10 provides a of policies and regulations that are needed to systematically support the implementation of sufficiency strategies. The questions and answers provide insights for wider application of housing sufficiency in research and practice.

Arceo, Aldrick↗
DOE OSTI2023

DESI mock challenge: Halo and galaxy catalogues with the bias assignment method

We present a novel approach to the construction of mock galaxy catalogues for large-scale structure analysis based on the distribution of dark matter halos obtained with effective bias models at the field level. We aim to produce mock galaxy catalogues capable of generating accurate covariance matrices for a number of cosmological probes that are expected to be measured in current and forthcoming galaxy redshift surveys (e.g. two- and three-point statistics). The construction of the catalogues shown in this paper is part of a mock-comparison project within the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) collaboration. We use the bias assignment method ( BAM ) to model the statistics of halo distribution through a learning algorithm using a few detailed N-body simulations, and approximated gravity solvers based on Lagrangian perturbation theory. We introduce cosmic-web-dependent corrections to modelling redshift-space distortions at the N-body level – both in the halo and galaxy distributions –, as well as a multi-scale approach for accurate assignment of halo properties. Using specific models of halo occupation distributions to populate halos, we generate galaxy mocks with the expected number density and central-satellite fraction of emission-line galaxies, which are a key target of the DESI experiment. BAM generates mock catalogues with per cent accuracy in a number of summary statistics, such as the abundance, the two- and three-point statistics of halo distributions, both in real and redshift space. In particular, the mock galaxy catalogues display ~3%-10% accuracy in the multipoles of the power spectrum up to scales of k ~ 0.4 h -1 Mpc. We show that covariance matrices of two- and three-point statistics obtained with BAM display a similar structure to the reference simulation. BAM offers an efficient way to produce mock halo catalogues with accurate two- and three-point statistics and is able to generate a variety of multi-tracer catalogues with precise covariance matrices of several cosmological probes. We discuss future developments of the algorithm towards mock production in DESI and other galaxy-redshift surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Benchmark of few-level quantum theory vs ab initio numerical solutions for the strong-field Autler–Townes effect in photoionization of hydrogen

Abstract The temporal and spectral consequences of an intermediate resonance en route to photoionization are investigated theoretically in two ways: by solving few-level model equations and by ab initio numerical solution of the time-dependent Schrödinger equation, in both cases for hydrogen in three dimensions. The model consists of atomic states resonantly field-dressed in a three-level reduction of the hydrogen atom that consists of the 2 p –3 d (Balmer) transition and one energetically-distant continuum state. The model’s level occupation probabilities are derived from three Schrödinger amplitude equations and are benchmarked against an ab initio numerical solution for the hydrogen electron’s wavefunction under the same field. We examine contrasts between the results of the two approaches with a particular focus on Autler–Townes doublets that appear in the photoelectron spectrum.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

HOD-dependent systematics in Emission Line Galaxies for the DESI 2024 BAO analysis

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will provide precise measurements of Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO) to constrain the expansion history of the Universe and set stringent constraints on dark energy. Therefore, precise control of the global error budget due to various systematic effects is required for the DESI 2024 BAO analysis. In this work, we estimate the level of systematics induced in the DESI BAO analysis due the assumed Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) model for the Emission Line Galaxy (ELG) tracer. We make use of mock galaxy catalogs constructed by fitting various HOD models to early DESI data, namely the One-Percent survey data. Our analysis includes typical HOD models for the ELG tracer used in the literature as well as extensions to the baseline models. Among the extensions, we consider various recipes for galactic conformity and assembly bias. We use 25 AbacusSummit simulations under the ΛCDM cosmology for each HOD model and perform independent analyses in Fourier space and in configuration space. To recover the BAO signal from our mocks we perform BAO reconstruction and apply the control variates technique to reduce sample variance noise. Our BAO analyses can recover the isotropic BAO parameter α iso within 0.1% and the Alcock Paczynski parameter α AP within 0.3%. Overall, we find that the systematic error due to the HOD dependence is below 0.17%, with the Fourier space analysis being more robust against the HOD systematics. We conclude that our analysis pipeline is robust enough against the HOD systematics for the ELG tracer in the DESI 2024 BAO analysis, for the assumptions made.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

HOD-dependent systematics for luminous red galaxies in the DESI 2024 BAO analysis

In this paper, we present the estimation of systematics related to the halo occupation distribution (HOD) modeling in the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) distance measurement of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) 2024 analysis. This paper focuses on the study of HOD systematics for luminous red galaxies (LRG). We consider three different HOD models for LRGs, including the base 5-parameter vanilla model and two extensions to it, that we refer to as baseline and extended models. The baseline model is described by the 5 vanilla HOD parameters, an incompleteness factor and a velocity bias parameter, whereas the extended one also includes a galaxy assembly bias and a satellite profile parameter. We utilize the 25 dark matter simulations available in the AbacusSummit simulation suite at z=0.8 and generate mock catalogs for our different HOD models. To test the impact of the HOD modeling in the position of the BAO peak, we run BAO fits for all these sets of simulations and compare the best-fit BAO-scaling parameters α iso and α AP between every pair of HOD models. Furthermore, we do this for both Fourier and configuration spaces independently, using post-reconstruction measurements. We find a 3.3σ detection of HOD systematic for α AP in configuration space with an amplitude of 0.19%. For the other cases, we did not find a 3σ detection, and we decided to compute a conservative estimation of the systematic using the ensemble of shifts between all pairs of HOD models. By doing this, we quote a systematic with an amplitude of 0.07% in α iso for both Fourier and configuration spaces; and of 0.09% in α AP for Fourier space.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring HOD-dependent systematics for the DESI 2024 Full-Shape galaxy clustering analysis

We analyze the robustness of the DESI 2024 cosmological inference from the full shape of the galaxy power spectrum to uncertainties in the Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) model of the galaxy-halo connection and the choice of priors on nuisance parameters. We assess variations in the recovered cosmological parameters across a range of mocks populated with different HOD models and find that shifts are often greater than 20% of the expected statistical uncertainties from the DESI data. We encapsulate the effect of such shifts in terms of a systematic covariance term, C HOD , and an additional diagonal contribution quantifying the impact of our choice of nuisance parameter priors on the ability of the effective field theory (EFT) model to correctly recover the cosmological parameters of the simulations. These two covariance contributions are designed to be added to the usual covariance term, C stat , describing the statistical uncertainty in the power spectrum measurement, in order to fairly represent these sources of systematic uncertainty. This novel approach should be more general and robust to the choice of model or additional external datasets used in cosmological fits than the alternative approach of adding systematic uncertainties to the recovered marginalised parameter posteriors. We compare the approaches within the context of a fixed ΛCDM model and demonstrate that our method gives conservative estimates of the systematic uncertainty that nevertheless have little impact on the final posteriors obtained from DESI data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗