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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

On learning what to learn: Heterogeneous observations of dynamics and establishing possibly causal relations among them

Abstract Before we attempt to (approximately) learn a function between two sets of observables of a physical process, we must first decide what the inputs and outputs of the desired function are going to be. Here we demonstrate two distinct, data-driven ways of first deciding “the right quantities” to relate through such a function, and then proceeding to learn it. This is accomplished by first processing simultaneous heterogeneous data streams (ensembles of time series) from observations of a physical system: records of multiple observation processes of the system. We determine (i) what subsets of observables are common between the observation processes (and therefore observable from each other, relatable through a function); and (ii) what information is unrelated to these common observables, therefore particular to each observation process, and not contributing to the desired function. Any data-driven technique can subsequently be used to learn the input–output relation—from k-nearest neighbors and Geometric Harmonics to Gaussian Processes and Neural Networks. Two particular “twists” of the approach are discussed. The first has to do with the identifiability of particular quantities of interest from the measurements. We now construct mappings from a single set of observations from one process to entire level sets of measurements of the second process, consistent with this single set. The second attempts to relate our framework to a form of causality: if one of the observation processes measures “now,” while the second observation process measures “in the future,” the function to be learned among what is common across observation processes constitutes a dynamical model for the system evolution.

Sroczynski, David W.↗
DOE OSTI2025

The gravitational path integral from an observer’s point of view

One of the fundamental problems in quantum gravity is to describe the experience of a gravitating observer in generic spacetimes. In this paper, we develop a framework for describing non-perturbative physics relative to an observer using the gravitational path integral. We apply our proposal to an observer that lives in a closed universe and one that falls behind a black hole horizon. We find that the Hilbert space that describes the experience of the observer is much larger than the Hilbert space in the absence of an observer. In the case of closed universes, the Hilbert space is not one-dimensional, as calculations in the absence of the observer suggest. Rather, its dimension scales exponentially with ${G}_{N}^{-1}$. Similarly, from an observer’s perspective, the dimension of the Hilbert space in a two-sided black hole is increased. We compute various observables probing the experience of a gravitating observer in this Hilbert space. We find that an observer experiences non-trivial physics in the closed universe in contrast to what it would see in a one-dimensional Hilbert space. In the two-sided black hole setting, our proposal implies that non-perturbative corrections to effective field theory for an infalling observer are suppressed until times exponential in the black hole entropy, resolving a recently-raised puzzle in black hole physics. While the framework that we develop is exemplified in the toy-model of JT gravity, most of our analysis can be extended to higher dimensions and, in particular, to generic spacetimes not admitting a conventional holographic description, such as cosmological universes or black hole interiors.

2D gravity↗
DOE OSTI2021

Divergent controls of soil organic carbon between observations and process-based models

Abstract The storage and cycling of soil organic carbon (SOC) are governed by multiple co-varying factors, including climate, plant productivity, edaphic properties, and disturbance history. Yet, it remains unclear which of these factors are the dominant predictors of observed SOC stocks, globally and within biomes, and how the role of these predictors varies between observations and process-based models. Here we use global observations and an ensemble of soil biogeochemical models to quantify the emergent importance of key state factors – namely, mean annual temperature, net primary productivity, and soil mineralogy – in explaining biome- to global-scale variation in SOC stocks. We use a machine-learning approach to disentangle the role of covariates and elucidate individual relationships with SOC, without imposing expected relationships a priori . While we observe qualitatively similar relationships between SOC and covariates in observations and models, the magnitude and degree of non-linearity vary substantially among the models and observations. Models appear to overemphasize the importance of temperature and primary productivity (especially in forests and herbaceous biomes, respectively), while observations suggest a greater relative importance of soil minerals. This mismatch is also evident globally. However, we observe agreement between observations and model outputs in select individual biomes – namely, temperate deciduous forests and grasslands, which both show stronger relationships of SOC stocks with temperature and productivity, respectively. This approach highlights biomes with the largest uncertainty and mismatch with observations for targeted model improvements. Understanding the role of dominant SOC controls, and the discrepancies between models and observations, globally and across biomes, is essential for improving and validating process representations in soil and ecosystem models for projections under novel future conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Mesoscale evaluation of AMPS using AWARE radar observations of a wind and precipitation event over the Ross Island region of Antarctica

Surface, upper-air, and radar observations are used to assess the performance of the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) in simulating the mesoscale aspects of a wind and precipitation event over the Ross Island region of Antarctica that spanned January 16–20, 2016. The observations, collected during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE), provide a unique dataset for evaluating AMPS, especially the radar observations that facilitate a three-dimensional depiction of winds and precipitation. Comparisons of AMPS forecast data with surface meteorology, balloon-sounding, and profiling radar observations at and above sites near McMurdo Station reveal a mixture of similarities and differences. A generally southerly flow is evident at low levels in both the AMPS simulations and observed Doppler radial velocities. AMPS winds are comparable to those observed at the surface and aloft in terms of magnitude, direction, and timing but the strongest simulated southerly flow is displaced eastward relative to the observations. AMPS-simulated reflectivity over the broader Ross Island region is more limited in areal extent and smaller in magnitude than observed by a scanning Doppler radar. Three episodes of surface precipitation are observed near McMurdo Station over the five-day event with peak rates of ~3 mm h -1 and a total accumulation of ~22 mm. However, AMPS produces no surface precipitation at that location over the five-day event due to a low-level dry bias in the forecasts. Herein, the results show the first observationally based three-dimensional understanding of meteorology in the Ross Island region.

AMPS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nudging allows direct evaluation of coupled climate models with in situ observations: a case study from the MOSAiC expedition

Comparing the output of general circulation models to observations is essential for assessing and improving the quality of models. While numerical weather prediction models are routinely assessed against a large array of observations, comparing climate models and observations usually requires long time series to build robust statistics. Here, we show that by nudging the large-scale atmospheric circulation in coupled climate models, model output can be compared to local observations for individual days. We illustrate this for three climate models during a period in April 2020 when a warm air intrusion reached the MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) expedition in the central Arctic. Radiosondes, cloud remote sensing and surface flux observations from the MOSAiC expedition serve as reference observations. The climate models AWI-CM1/ECHAM and AWI-CM3/IFS miss the diurnal cycle of surface temperature in spring, likely because both models assume the snowpack on ice to have a uniform temperature. CAM6, a model that uses three layers to represent snow temperature, represents the diurnal cycle more realistically. During a cold and dry period with pervasive thin mixed-phase clouds, AWI-CM1/ECHAM only produces partial cloud cover and overestimates downwelling shortwave radiation at the surface. AWI-CM3/IFS produces a closed cloud cover but misses cloud liquid water. Our results show that nudging the large-scale circulation to the observed state allows a meaningful comparison of climate model output even to short-term observational campaigns. We suggest that nudging can simplify and accelerate the pathway from observations to climate model improvements and substantially extends the range of observations suitable for model evaluation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observations of wind farm wake recovery at an operating wind farm

Abstract. The interplay of momentum surrounding wind farms significantly influences wake recovery, affecting the speed at which wakes return to their freestream velocities. Under stable atmospheric conditions, wind farm wakes can extend over considerable distances, leading to sustained vertical momentum flux downstream, with variations observed throughout the diurnal cycle. Particularly in regions such as the US Great Plains, stable conditions can induce low-level jets (LLJs), impacting wind farm performance and power output. This study examines the implications of wake recovery using long-term observations of vertical momentum flux profiles across diverse atmospheric conditions. In these observations, several key findings were observed, such as (a) LLJ heights being altered downstream of a wind farm, especially when the LLJs are below 250 m above ground level; (b) a notable impact of LLJ height on wake recovery being observed using momentum flux profiles at upwind and downwind locations, wherein LLJs between 250 and 500 m above ground level resulted in larger momentum transfer within the wake (i.e., smaller velocity deficit) compared to LLJs below 250 m above ground level; (c) the largest momentum flux variability being observed during stable atmospheric conditions, with non-negligible variability observed during neutral and unstable atmospheric conditions; (d) detection of wake effects almost always being observed throughout the atmospheric boundary layer height; and finally (e) enhancement of wake recovery being observed in the presence of propagating gravity waves. These insights deepen our understanding of the intricate dynamics governing wake recovery in wind farms, advancing efforts to model and predict their behavior across varying atmospheric contexts. In addition, the performance of large-eddy-simulation-based semi-empirical internal boundary layer height model estimates incorporating real-world atmospheric and turbine inputs was evaluated using observations during LLJ conditions.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Observing Arctic Sea Ice

Our understanding of Arctic sea ice and its wide-ranging influence is deeply rooted in observation. Advancing technologies have profoundly improved our ability to observe Arctic sea ice, document its processes and properties, and describe atmosphere-ice-ocean interactions with unprecedented detail. Yet, our progress toward better understanding the Arctic sea ice system is mired by the stark disparities between observations that tend to be siloed by method, scientific discipline, and application. This article presents a review and philosophical design for observing sea ice and accelerating our understanding of the Arctic sea ice system. We give a brief history of Arctic sea ice observations and showcase the 2018 melt season within the context of five observational themes: spatial heterogeneity, temporal variability, cross-disciplinary science, scalability, and retrieval uncertainty. We synthesize buoy data, optical imagery, satellite retrievals, and airborne measurements to demonstrate how disparate data sets can be woven together to transcend observational-scale issues. The results show that there are limitations to interpreting any single data set alone. However, many of these limitations can be surmounted by combining observations that cross spatial and temporal scales. We conclude the article with pathways toward coordinating across observational platforms in order to: (1) optimize the scientific, operational, and community return on observational investments, and (2) facilitate a richer understanding of Arctic sea ice and its role in the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust global detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation despite observational disagreement on the magnitude of change

Detection and attribution (D&A) of forced precipitation change are challenging due to internal variability, limited spatial, and temporal coverage of observational records and model uncertainty. These factors result in a low signal-to-noise ratio of potential regional and even global trends. Here, we use a statistical method – ridge regression – to create physically interpretable fingerprints for the detection of forced changes in mean and extreme precipitation with a high signal-to-noise ratio. The fingerprints are constructed using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model output masked to match coverage of three gridded precipitation observational datasets – GHCNDEX, HadEX3, and GPCC – and are then applied to these observational datasets to assess the degree of forced change detectable in the real-world climate in the period 1951–2020. We show that the signature of forced change is detected in all three observational datasets for global metrics of mean and extreme precipitation. Forced changes are still detectable from changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation even if the global mean trend is removed from the data. This shows the detection of forced change in mean and extreme precipitation beyond a global mean trend is robust and increases confidence in the detection method's power as well as in climate models' ability to capture the relevant processes that contribute to large-scale patterns of change. We also find, however, that detectability depends on the observational dataset used. Not only coverage differences but also observational uncertainty contribute to dataset disagreement, exemplified by the times of emergence of forced change from internal variability ranging from 1998 to 2004 among datasets. Furthermore, different choices for the period over which the forced trend is computed result in different levels of agreement between observations and model projections. These sensitivities may explain apparent contradictions in recent studies on whether models under- or overestimate the observed forced increase in mean and extreme precipitation. Lastly, the detection fingerprints are found to rely primarily on the signal in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere, which is at least partly due to observational coverage but potentially also due to the presence of a more robust signal in the Northern Hemisphere in general.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Early photometric and spectroscopic observations of the extraordinarily bright INTEGRAL-detected GRB 221009A

Context. GRB 221009A, initially detected as an X-ray transient by Swift, was later revealed to have triggered the Fermi satellite about an hour earlier, marking it as a post-peak observation of the event’s emission. This GRB distinguished itself as the brightest ever recorded, presenting an unparalleled opportunity to probe the complexities of GRB physics. The unprecedented brightness, however, challenged observation efforts, as it led to the saturation of several high-energy instruments.Aims. Our study seeks to investigate the nature of the INTEGRAL-detected GRB 221009A and elucidate the environmental conditions conducive to these exceptionally powerful bursts. Moreover, we aim to understand the fundamental physics illuminated by the detection of teraelectronvolt (TeV) photons emitted by GRB 221009A.Methods. We conducted detailed analyses of early photometric and spectroscopic observations that span from the Fermi trigger through to the initial days following the prompt emission phase in order to characterize GRB 221009A’s afterglow, and we complemented these analyses with a comparative study.Results. Our findings from analyzing INTEGRAL data confirm GRB 221009A as the most energetic event observed to date. Early optical observations during the prompt phase negate the presence of bright optical emissions with internal or external shock origins. Spectroscopic analyses enabled us to measure GRB 221009A’s distance and line-of-sight properties. The afterglow’s temporal and spectral analysis suggests prolonged activity of the central engine and a transition in the circumburst medium’s density. Finally, we discuss the implications for fundamental physics of detecting photons as energetic as 18 TeV from GRB 221009A.Conclusions. Early optical observations have proven invaluable for distinguishing between the potential origins of optical emissions in GRB 221009A, underscoring their utility in GRB physics studies. However, the rarity of such data underscores the need for dedicated telescopes capable of synchronous multiwavelength observations. Additionally, our analysis suggests that the host galaxies of TeV GRBs share commonalities with those of long and short GRBs. Expanding the sample of TeV GRBs could further solidify these findings.Key words: techniques: photometric / techniques: spectroscopic / gamma-ray burst: general / gamma-ray burst: individual: GRB 221009A

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Limitations of Bin and Bulk Microphysics in Reproducing the Observed Spatial Structure of Light Precipitation

Abstract Coarse-gridded atmospheric models often account for subgrid-scale variability by specifying probability distribution functions (PDFs) of process rate inputs such as cloud and rainwater mixing ratios ( q c and q r , respectively). PDF parameters can be obtained from numerous sources: in situ observations, ground- or space-based remote sensing, or fine-scale modeling such as large-eddy simulation (LES). LES is appealing to constrain PDFs because it generates large sample sizes, can simulate a variety of cloud regimes/case studies, and is not subject to the ambiguities of observations. However, despite the appeal of using model output for parameterization development, it has not been demonstrated that LES satisfactorily reproduces the observed spatial structure of microphysical fields. In this study, the structure of observed and modeled microphysical fields are compared by applying bifractal analysis, an approach that quantifies variability across spatial scales, to simulations of a drizzling stratocumulus field that span a range of domain sizes, drop concentrations (a proxy for mesoscale organization), and microphysics schemes (bulk and bin). Simulated q c closely matches observed estimates of bifractal parameters that measure smoothness and intermittency. There are major discrepancies between observed and simulated q r properties, though, with bulk simulated q r consistently displaying the bifractal properties of observed clouds (smooth, minimally intermittent) rather than rain while bin simulations produce q r that is appropriately intermittent but too smooth. These results suggest fundamental limitations of bulk and bin schemes to realistically represent higher-order statistics of the observed rain structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-dimensional isotomics, part 2: Observations of over 100 constraints on methionine's isotome

The abundances of different isotopic forms of a compound, or isotopologues, will vary based on its physical and chemical history. The number of isotopologues increases combinatorically with the size of a molecule, and even small molecules such as amino acids have thousands of potentially observable isotopic variants. However, due to the analytical challenges of separating and observing isotopologues, only a few dimensions of isotopic diversity are routinely measured. Overcoming these challenges requires both an experimental method to observe many isotopic properties and a theoretical framework for interpreting these experiments. In Part 1, we presented such a theoretical framework; here, we demonstrate an experimental method, which we apply to methionine. Our approach uses a Q Exactive HF Orbitrap to perform several “M + N experiments”, where a sample is ionized, a subset of its isotopologues with cardinal mass N daltons greater than the unsubstituted isotopologue is selected and fragmented, and the proportions of all detectable isotopic forms of those fragment ions are quantified. We perform M + 1, M + 2, M + 3, and M + 4 experiments of a methionine sample and standard where the sample has a 100 ‰ enrichment of 13C at the methyl carbon relative to the natural 13C abundance at that position in the standard, and is otherwise identical to the standard. We observe isotopic forms of 8 fragment ion species for each version of the M + N experiment. With the assistance of a forward model of expected mass spectra, we identify isotopic peaks for each fragment ion based on observed mass and abundance, screen these for data quality, and quantify abundances for 146 unique isotopic peaks at precisions of ≈ 0.3–3 ‰. We present our direct observations and use them to reconstruct the concentrations of 19 individual singly, doubly, and triply-substituted isotopologues; doing so gives fewer constraints and broader error bars than working with the direct observations, but may be more interpretable for some applications. We also examine possibilities for measuring additional peaks, which are primarily limited by the detection limit of the Orbitrap-IRMS method. We then suggest some possible uses of our direct measurements for chemical forensics and hypothesis testing. Furthermore, our results demonstrate the diversity of isotopic constraints currently observable and interpretable for organic molecules.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

First observations of edge instabilities in strongly shaped negative triangularity plasmas on DIII-D

Throughout the 2023 DIII-D negative triangularity (NT) campaign, unexpected magnetic fluctuations indicative of an edge localized instability were observed in the majority of strongly shaped (–0.55 ≤ δ ≤ –0.45) discharges. Moreover, these same fluctuations were found to be absent in weaker NT plasma shapes. Based on a database study, three separate mode behaviors are observed based primarily on the edge safety factor and normalized plasma beta β N . The main regime is the bursty state, in which short (~5 ms) magnetic bursts occur every 5–10 ms. Each burst drives a small reduction in the edge electron temperature (T e ) as measured by electron cyclotron emissions (ECE), which then rapidly recovers between the bursts. The quiescent regime appears to have governing mechanics similar to the bursty regime, but with multiple unique mode signatures observed in the magnetics. These additional modes greatly reduce the bursty nature of the plasma. Finally, a saturated state is observed in a number of discharges, particularly at early time slices. The saturated regime is often short-lived (maximum 500 ms), but can have a large impact on the dynamics of the plasma edge region, causing significant drops in electron temperature as observed in the ECE diagnostic. 2D ECE imaging (ECE-I) is utilized, showing large kink-like perturbations localized near the last closed flux surface that extend into the SOL indicative of an external kink/peeling behavior. Additionally, evidence of phase mixing and observed tearing-parity perturbations localized near the edge rational surfaces is observed in the quiescent regime plasmas. As a result, the various modes do not appear to have a large impact on global confinement but may play a role in regulating the transport of the NT edge and the observed edge gradients.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

J-GEM optical and near-infrared follow-up of gravitational wave events during LIGO’s and Virgo’s third observing run

The Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory Scientific Collaboration and Virgo Collaboration (LVC) sent out 56 gravitational-wave (GW) notices during the third observing run (O3). The Japanese Collaboration for Gravitational wave ElectroMagnetic follow-up (J-GEM) performed optical and near-infrared observations to identify and observe an electromagnetic (EM) counterpart. We constructed a web-based system that enabled us to obtain and share information on candidate host galaxies for the counterpart, and the status of our observations. Candidate host galaxies were selected from the GLADE catalog with a weight based on the 3D GW localization map provided by LVC. We conducted galaxy-targeted and wide-field blind surveys, real-time data analysis, and visual inspection of observed galaxies. We performed galaxy-targeted follow-ups to 23 GW events during O3, and the maximum probability covered by our observations reached 9.8%. Among these, we successfully started observations for 10 GW events within 0.5 days after the detection. This result demonstrates that our follow-up observation has the potential to constrain EM radiation models for a merger of binary neutron stars at a distance of up to ~100 Mpc with a probability area of ≤ 500 deg 2 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Diurnal Variation of the Planetary Boundary Layer Height Observed from GNSS Radio Occultation and Radiosonde Soundings over the Southern Great Plains

>The planetary boundary layer (PBL) height (PBLH) is a key physical parameter of the PBL affected by numerous physical processes within the boundary layer. Specifically, the PBLH over land exhibits large spatial and temporal variation across different geographical regions. In this study, the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) radio occultation (RO) profiles and high-resolution radiosonde profiles from 2007 to 2013 were analyzed to estimate the diurnal cycle of the PBLH over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) in the United States. Large variations in PBLH derived from radiosonde temperature, moisture, and refractivity are observed on seasonal scales. COSMIC RO is capable of observing diurnal and seasonal variations in the terrestrial PBLH over the SGP region. Annual mean diurnal amplitude of approximately 250 m in the terrestrial PBLH was observed, with maxima occurring at around 1500 local solar time (LST) in both the collocated radiosondes and COSMIC RO profiles. Seasonal changes in the PBLH diurnal cycles ranging from approximately 100 to 400 m were also observed. Such PBL diurnal and seasonal changes can be further incorporated into PBL parameterizations to help improve weather and climate model prediction. Significance Statement. The atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL) and its height (PBLH) control many atmospheric processes that affect our everyday lives. Observations of the PBL are usually limited to radiosondes at limited time intervals. GNSS radio occultation (RO) provide high-vertical-resolution atmospheric observations that are ideal for PBL study. This study demonstrates that the GNSS RO is capable of capturing the diurnal and seasonal variations of the PBLH over the southern Great Plains (SGP) well as compared to the collocated radiosonde observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Observations of marine animal interactions with a small tidal turbine

The risk of collisions between animals and operating tidal turbines remains a concern in the scientific and regulatory communities. A sensor package including optical cameras was deployed to monitor animal interactions with a small-scale (1 m 2 ) cross-flow tidal turbine. The turbine was deployed in Washington State, USA for 141 days at a site with peak flow speeds of 2.5 m/s. We analyze optical camera imagery spanning 109 days of turbine operation. The analyzed images contain 1044 observations of fish, fish schools, seabirds, or seals in the vicinity of the turbine. No instances of collision with seabirds or seals were observed. Seabirds were only observed during daylight hours and while the turbine was stationary. Both seals and fish were observed during both day and night and while the turbine was stationary and rotating. Four fish were observed colliding with the moving turbine and in all but one case the animals swam away following the collision. Over the same period of time, over fifty times more fish (224 individual fish and 5 fish schools) were observed passing the moving turbine without collision. Fish encounters were likely under counted due to the difficulty in discerning small fish from plant matter in the water column. These observations represent the first optical camera imagery showing fish, bird, and marine mammal interactions with a tidal turbine in North America. In addition to quantitative and qualitative discussion of the implications of our observations for collision risk, we discuss lessons learned on sampling schemes and deployment of machine learning for detection of animals to inform future data collection strategies in future monitoring campaigns.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2025

Inference of Multichannel r -process Element Enrichment in the Milky Way Using Binary Neutron Star Merger Observations

Observations of GW170817 strongly suggest that binary neutron star (BNS) mergers produce rapid neutron-capture nucleosynthesis ( r -process) elements. However, it remains an open question whether these mergers can account for all the r -process element enrichment in the Milky Way’s history. Here, we constrain the contributions of the BNS channel using astrophysical neutron star observations. The rate and mass distributions are constrained by LIGO/Virgo/Kagra through the latest catalog GWTC-3, the neutron star equation of state by gravitational-wave, radio, and X-ray observations, and the delay time distribution by short gamma-ray burst (GRB) host galaxy associations. We present a Bayesian framework to consistently combine these observations with abundance information to quantify the contribution and uncertainties of single and multiple astrophysical enrichment sources, and obtain a distribution of per-event BNS r -process element yields consistent with geophysical and astrophysical abundance constraints. We then adopt a Galactic chemical evolution model assuming an instantaneous and fixed amount of Fe enrichment from core-collapse supernovae, and show that BNS-only enrichment scenarios remain inconsistent with the observed r-process abundance trend of disk stars in the Galaxy even with the uncertainties in BNS merger observations. Using stellar abundance observations instead of the short GRB constraints, we can infer a shorter BNS delay time distribution with power-law index α ≤ −2.0 and minimum delay time ${t}_{{\rm{\min }}}\leqslant 40$ Myr at 90% confidence, consistent with detailed Galactic chemical evolution models. Such delay times are in tension with those predicted by standard BNS formation models. Alternatively, we confirm that a two-channel scenario, in which the second channel tracks the star formation history without significant delay, can account for both Galactic stellar and short GRB observations. We estimate that 45%–90% of the r -process abundance in the Milky Way today would have been produced by this star formation-tracking channel, rather than BNS mergers with significant delay times.

gravitational wave astronomy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of Nonzero-frequency Fluctuations on Turbulence Spectral Observations

In situ observations of turbulence spectra in space plasmas are usually interpreted as wavenumber spectra, assuming that the fluctuation frequency is negligible in the plasma flow frame. We explore the effects of nonzero frequency in the plasma flow frame on turbulence spectral observations. The finite frequency can be caused by either propagating waves or nonlinear broadening of nonpropagating structures. We show that the observed frequency spectrum can be modified by the nonzero frequency of turbulent fluctuations in several ways. Specifically, (i) frequency broadening results in a minor modification to the observed spectrum, primarily acting as a smoothing kernel of the spectrum near the spectral break, while the asymptotic spectral index remains unchanged; (ii) wave propagation can affect the observed spectral index for anisotropic turbulence. The effect is significant at low frequencies and weaker at high frequencies, leading to a "concave" shape of the observed perpendicular spectrum; (iii) the Doppler shift for forward- and backward-propagating Elsasser modes can result in a nonzero cross helicity for critical-balanced turbulence since the effect of the Doppler shift favors outward-propagating waves systematically, resulting in an observed imbalance. These results may have important implications for the interpretation of solar wind flows observed by Parker Solar Probe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing radar scan strategies for tracking isolated deep convection using observing system simulation experiments

Abstract. Optimizing radar observation strategies is one of the most important considerations in pre-field campaign periods. This is especially true for isolated convective clouds that typically evolve faster than the observations captured by operational radar networks. This study investigates uncertainties in radar observations of the evolution of the microphysical and dynamical properties of isolated deep convective clouds developing in clean and polluted environments. It aims to optimize the radar observation strategy for deep convection through the use of high-spatiotemporal cloud-resolving model simulations, which resolve the evolution of individual convective cells every 1 min, coupled with a radar simulator and a cell tracking algorithm. The radar simulation settings are based on the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) and Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation and Environment (ESCAPE) field campaigns held in the Houston, TX, area but are generalizable to other field campaigns focusing on isolated deep convection. Our analysis produces the following four outcomes. First, a 5–7 m s−1 median difference in maximum updrafts of tracked cells is shown between the clean and polluted simulations in the early stages of the cloud lifetimes. This demonstrates the importance of obtaining accurate estimates of vertical velocity from observations if aerosol impacts are to be properly resolved. Second, tracking of individual cells and using vertical cross section scanning every minute capture the evolution of precipitation particle number concentration and size represented by polarimetric observables better than the operational radar observations that update the volume scan every 5 min. This approach also improves multi-Doppler radar updraft retrievals above 5 km above ground level for regions with updraft velocities greater than 10 m s−1. Third, we propose an optimized strategy composed of cell tracking by quick (1–2 min) vertical cross section scans from more than one radar in addition to the operational volume scans. We also propose the use of a single-RHI (range height indicator) updraft retrieval technique for cells close to the radars, for which multi-Doppler radar retrievals are still challenging. Finally, increasing the number of deep convective cells sampled by such observations better represents the median maximum updraft evolution with sample sizes of more than 10 deep cells, which decreases the error associated with sampling the true population to less than 3 m s−1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗