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At least 73 records · Page 4

Nuclear Power's Future Role in a Decarbonized U.S. Electricity System

This study explores the potential future role of nuclear energy in a decarbonized U.S. electricity system through a multi-model comparison approach. We employ four state-of-the-art CEMs with native and harmonized input assumptions, layered with different policy and technology trajectories. Comparing outputs across models, technology assumptions, and policy scenarios informs model understanding, interpretation, and development decisions. Under current policies, models differ in their projections for nuclear retirements, but nuclear power plants consistently run with high capacity factors and new builds only occur in scenarios with very low nuclear costs. String power sector carbon policies drive models to align in keeping existing nuclear capacity and employing nuclear plant flexibility, but they may not be enough to bring new nuclear capacity online in the absence of significant cost declines. Therefore, significant economic deployment of new nuclear capacity requires both a stringent electric sector CO2 policy and very low cost assumptions for new nuclear. While these scenarios should not be interpreted as predictions, they are informative for understanding differing model assessments of the relative competitiveness of nuclear energy under a range of policy and technology conditions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Systems Theory Principles and Complex Systems Engineering Concepts for Protection and Resilience in Critical Infrastructure: Lessons from the Nuclear Sector

Part of the Presidential Policy Directive 21 (PPD-21) (PPD 2013) mandate includes evaluating safety, security, and safeguards (or nonproliferation) mechanisms traditionally implemented within the nuclear reactors, materials, and waste sector of critical infrastructure—including a complex, dynamic set of risks and threats within an all-hazards approach. In response, research out of Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) explores the ability of systems theory principles (hierarchy and emergence) and complex systems engineering concepts (multidomain interdependence) to better understand and address these risks and threats. Herein, this Sandia research explores the safety, safeguards, and security risks of three different nuclear sector-related activities—spent nuclear fuel transportation, small modular reactors, and portable nuclear power reactors—to investigate the complex and dynamic risk related to the PPD-21-mandated all-hazards approach. This research showed that a systems-theoretic approach can better identify inter-dependencies, conflicts, gaps, and leverage points across traditional safety, security, and safeguards hazard mitigation strategies in the nuclear reactors, materials, and waste sector. Resulting from this, mitigation strategies from applying systems theoretic principles and complex systems engineering concepts can be (1) designed to better capture interdependencies, (2) implemented to better align with real-world operational uncertainties, and (3) evaluated as a systems-level whole to better identify, characterize, and manage PPD-21's all hazards strategies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A pilot level decision analysis of thermionic reactor development strategy for nuclear electric propulsion

The development policy for thermionic reactors to provide electric propulsion and power for space exploration was analyzed to develop a logical procedure for selecting development alternatives that reflect the technical feasibility, JPL/NASA project objectives, and the economic environment of the project. The partial evolution of a decision model from the underlying philosophy of decision analysis to a deterministic pilot phase is presented, and the general manner in which this decision model can be employed to examine propulsion development alternatives is illustrated.

Menke, M. M.↗

Evolution of NASA’s Nuclear Flight Safety Program to Meet Changing Needs

Over the past 4 years, the United States (U.S.) Government has issued several new National policies that fundamentally change the approach to nuclear flight safety for aerospace applications, including the complete revision of the Federal policy for handling launch of spacecraft containing space nuclear systems. In response, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is updating its nuclear flight safety program while still maintaining consistency with other Federal policies, international conventions, and NASA’s own policies. To achieve this evolution, NASA is factoring in an objectives-driven and assurance case mindset to develop a risk-informed and performance-based program. NASA and others have successfully applied this mindset in other disciplines and contexts and it is being pursued here via broad cooperation within NASA and with external stakeholders. This paper will briefly describe how the NASA nuclear flight safety program is evolving to meet these changing needs.

NASA↗

NASA Nuclear Flight Safety – New Protocols for Safety and Mission Assurance

Over the past 4 years, the United States (U.S.) Government has issued several new National policies that fundamentally change the approach to nuclear flight safety for aerospace applications, including the complete revision of the Federal policy for handling launch of spacecraft containing space nuclear systems. In response, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is updating its nuclear flight safety program while still maintaining consistency with other Federal policies, international conventions, and NASA’s own policies. The recently-completed revision of the NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) document for nuclear flight safety is a key step in the evolution of NASA policy and practice in this area. This paper will briefly describe the more significant changes in the new NASA NPR.

Donald Helton↗

Information and Best Practices Related to NASA Nuclear Flight Safety for Space Flights Involving Space Nuclear Systems

The purpose of this handbook is to facilitate a repeatable and robust process that promotes clear and effective interfaces between activities and stakeholders focused on meeting nuclear flight safety requirements for missions utilizing space nuclear systems (SNS), within the context of NASA’s broader nuclear-related activities and interfaces. NPR 8715.26, Nuclear Flight Safety, requires that the NASA project manager “incorporate nuclear flight safety considerations starting with program or project formulation through the point at which the SNS or other radioactive material no longer has the potential to affect Earth’s biosphere.” NASA’s use of SNS inherently involves partnering with other stakeholders to conduct a range of related activities that interface with nuclear flight safety. From a categorical perspective these include: (i) meeting the authorities and licensing requirements for possession and use of nuclear material, as governed by other Federal authorities; (ii) conducting National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) activities for nuclear-enabled missions; (iii) meeting Federal nuclear launch authorization requirements; (iv) conducting radiological contingency planning activities, including those associated with international commitments; (v) performing risk communication and public outreach activities; and (vi) ensuring decommissioning and disposal strategies reflect National policies and interests. It is the intent of this handbook to promote an effective interface between nuclear flight safety and these interrelated categorical activities. In addition to activities undertaken with partnering agencies, there are individual nuclear-related activities and programs that have a nexus to nuclear flight safety, and these include: (i) applicable NASA Standing Review Boards; (ii) the US Department of Energy nuclear safety activities conducted in partnership with NASA under Memoranda of Understanding; (iii) the Department of Defense’s Range Safety activities; (iv) NASA’s general involvement in interagency and international dialogues regarding nuclear safety; (v) the NASA-administered Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Board; (vi) NASA’s program and project governance activities and nuclear-specific Technical Discipline Team activities under the Office of the Chief Engineer; and others. It is the intent of this handbook to promote effective leveraging of these additional interrelated organizational activities, as appropriate.

Donald Helton↗

Guidelines for Nuclear Structure Evaluators

This document sets forth the policies and procedures for preparing mass chain evaluations for the Evaluated Nuclear Structure Data File (ENSDF). Also included are some appendices which are referred to or augment material in the guidelines. See section on Appendices for details and references to additional material.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Nonproliferation and Arms Control Research and Development (NPAC R&D) [Slides]

NPAC R&D focus areas include: Advancing U.S. capabilities to detect and characterize nuclear weapon development activities globally, including material production, the movement of special nuclear materials and nuclear weapons, and the testing or use of nuclear weapons, Supporting the development and testing of policy options and technical capabilities for international nuclear safeguards, arms control / treaty verification, nuclear export controls, and nonproliferation initiatives consistent with U.S. Government goals and objectives to enable monitoring and verification, Utilizing uranium, lithium, and high explosives (HE) materials expertise to support national-level activities in nuclear forensics and nuclear detection technology testing and evaluation, Providing unique training and capacity-building programs, particularly with the Nuclear Detection and Sensor Testing Center (NDSTC), and Engaging internationally to promote nonproliferation and arms control norms and best practices through bilateral and multilateral work.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Treatment of uncertainties for security-related design aspects of advanced reactors when using a risk-informed licensing approach

Sabotage of nuclear plants and theft of special nuclear material are different from many other issues potentially affecting public health and safety, and some of those differences drive the content of the present report. A high-level indication of these differences is provided in the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s Safety Goal Policy. Promulgated in the mid-1980’s, when it had become reasonably clear that risk analysis had improved to the point where it was possible to understand the risks associated with plant operation, the Safety Goal Policy articulates qualitative safety goals and quantitative health objectives that are meant to guide regulatory and risk management activities, with the following key exceptions noted in the original policy statement: The possible effects of sabotage or diversion of nuclear material are also not presently included in the safety goals. At present there is no basis on which to provide a measure of risk on these matters. It is the Commission’s intention that everything that is needed will be done to keep these types of risks at their present very low level; and it is the Commission’s expectation that efforts on this point will continue to be successful. With these exceptions, it is the Commission’s intent that the risks from all the various initiating mechanisms be considered to the best of the capability of current evaluation techniques. The present report discusses extensions of classical risk management to address some of the special issues that arise in the context of security. Although the present emphasis is on physical security, some attention will be paid to cyber security. A particular focus of the report is on quantitative framework to manage and address uncertainties. This framework is demonstrated via a couple of hypothetical examples.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Hyperthermal Environments Simulator for Nuclear Rocket Engine Development

An arc-heater driven hyperthermal convective environments simulator was recently developed and commissioned for long duration hot hydrogen exposure of nuclear thermal rocket materials. This newly established non-nuclear testing capability uses a high-power, multi-gas, wall-stabilized constricted arc-heater to produce hightemperature pressurized hydrogen flows representative of nuclear reactor core environments, excepting radiation effects, and is intended to serve as a low-cost facility for supporting non-nuclear developmental testing of hightemperature fissile fuels and structural materials. The resulting reactor environments simulator represents a valuable addition to the available inventory of non-nuclear test facilities and is uniquely capable of investigating and characterizing candidate fuel/structural materials, improving associated processing/fabrication techniques, and simulating reactor thermal hydraulics. This paper summarizes facility design and engineering development efforts and reports baseline operational characteristics as determined from a series of performance mapping and long duration capability demonstration tests. Potential follow-on developmental strategies are also suggested in view of the technical and policy challenges ahead. Keywords: Nuclear Rocket Engine, Reactor Environments, Non-Nuclear Testing, Fissile Fuel Development.

Litchford, Ron J.↗

Factors Impacting Nuclear Energy Share in U.S. Energy Markets

The purpose of this report is to collate information and findings from recent studies conducted by national and international bodies/institutes to identify approaches for maintaining/enhancing the role of nuclear energy in the current and future energy mix of the United States. This report shows how nuclear generation grew quickly to provide 20% of U.S. electricity, sustaining that level for three decades without the benefit of new construction, but is now projected to decline going forward. Nuclear construction costs in the U.S. spiraled out of control, ending construction for two decades and the recent resumption of construction has continued the pattern of schedule delays and cost overruns. However, nuclear operations exhibited strong learning, achieving and sustaining the highest capacity factor of any electricity generation technology and license extensions and uprates have sustained nuclear market share. The share of nuclear energy in the U.S. electricity market is projected to decline by ~1/3rd over the next 30 years The report provides an overview of how the markets work in theory and in practice. It indicates how market deregulation and clean energy policies have created conditions where nuclear plants are being retired for economic rather than technical reasons. The report also shows how many of the markets do not in practice have free competition but instead have outcomes that are being determined more and more by policy instead of market forces. While electricity costs from existing nuclear plants are low, electricity from new builds is projected to be too expensive to be competitive head-to-head with natural gas, even for nth-of-a-kind costs. Wind and solar energy have enjoyed an extended period of sustained subsidy. This protected environment has resulted in a sustained reduction in plant level costs to the point that some of these Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) technologies are becoming competitive even if their direct subsidies are removed. But plant level costs underestimate total VRE costs which include a number of system-level externalities. The incremental system value of additional VRE capacity was shown to decline as market share increases, with solar value declining more quickly than wind. The report closes with examination of a possible future for nuclear generation as part of deep decarbonization of the electricity sector. This approach avoids direct competition with natural gas. The two options for achieving 100% decarbonization are to use only renewables or to use all zero emissions technologies, and the report shows the second approach is much less expensive than the first.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Risk-Informed Operations and Maintenance Decision Making Using Deep Reinforcement Learning

A challenge for operating nuclear power plants is the significant cost of operations and maintenance, at times consuming up to 66% of annual operating costs. This project aims to build a framework for a risk-informed asset-management tool that integrates inspections, repairs, spare-part inventory, supply chain, and business choices to lower overall O&M costs. Our approach uses a combination of data-driven modeling and deep reinforcement learning to create and implement optimal maintenance policies for the existing nuclear fleet, as well as new advanced reactors. The creation of an asset management tool that uses these advanced methods will give operators new capabilities to help reduce the burden of O&M spending in nuclear power plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Evolution of NASA’s Nuclear Flight Safety Program to Infuse Risk Leadership and Assurance Framework Concepts

In recent years, the United States (U.S.) Government has issued several new National policies that fundamentally change the approach to nuclear flight safety for aerospace applications, including the complete revision of the Federal policy for handling launch of spacecraft containing space nuclear systems. In response, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is updating its nuclear flight safety program while still maintaining consistency with other Federal policies, international conventions, and NASA’s own policies. To achieve this evolution, NASA is factoring in an objectives-driven and assurance case mindset to develop a risk-informed and performance-based program. NASA and others have successfully applied this mindset in other disciplines and contexts and it is being pursued here via broad cooperation within NASA and with external stakeholders. This paper will briefly describe how the NASA nuclear flight safety program is evolving to meet these changing needs.

Matthew J. Forsbacka↗

Resilient design in nuclear energy: Critical lessons from a cross-disciplinary analysis of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident

This paper presents a multidisciplinary analysis of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident. Along with the latest observations and simulation studies, we synthesize the time-series and event progressions during the accident across multiple disciplines, including in-plant physics and engineering systems, operators’ actions, emergency responses, meteorology, radionuclide release and transport, land contamination, and health impacts. We identify three key factors that exacerbated the consequences of the accident: (1) the failure of Unit 2 containment venting, (2) the insufficient integration of radiation measurements and meteorology data in the evacuation strategy, and (3) the limited risk assessment and emergency preparedness. We conclude with new research and development directions to improve the resilience of nuclear energy systems and communities, including (1) meteorology-informed proactive venting, (2) machine learning-enabled adaptive evacuation zones, and (3) comprehensive risk-informed emergency planning while leveraging the experience from responses to other disasters.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Acceleration of Glass Alteration Rates Induced by Zeolite Seeds at Controlled pH

As the glass-water reaction proceeds, certain glass compositions undergo a delayed acceleration in the alteration rate – a phenomenon that is commonly referred to as Stage III behavior – which generally coincides with zeolite formation. However, studying Stage III in the laboratory is difficult because the time scale required to observe Stage III behavior can vary from months to several years, and the solution conditions that initiate this acceleration remain poorly understood. Consequently, the development of a corrosion test method capable of quantifying Stage III rates in a timely manner would be of great benefit to both the scientific community and policy makers concerned with nuclear waste disposal. In this work, we induced and measured the acceleration in the corrosion rate of the AFCI glass by seeding static corrosion tests with zeolite Na-P2 at fixed pH90°C values ranging from 9.5 to 11.5. The induced Stage III rates increased linearly with increasing pH and were measured to be between the forward and residual rates of AFCI. Tests designed to compare induced Stage III rates obtained for different seeding times showed that the induced Stage III rates were faster in the absence of an alteration layer. In summary, the use of the seeded test method allows for a conservative quantification of Stage III rates in a relatively short, one-month time period.

Neeway, James J.↗

Review of coaxial flow gas core nuclear rocket fluid mechanics

Almost all of the fluid mechanics research associated with the coaxial flow gas core reactor ended abruptly with the interruption of NASA's space nuclear program because of policy and budgetary considerations in 1973. An overview of program accomplishments is presented through a review of the experiments conducted and the analyses performed. Areas are indicated where additional research is required for a fuller understanding of cavity flow and of the factors which influence cold and hot flow containment. A bibliography is included with graphic material.

Weinstein, H.↗