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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Response to Comment on 'Prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Historical and Projected Nuclear Power'

Sovacool et al.'s analysis of our paper contains numerous errors, misinterpretations, and dubious assumptions. For instance, we make no presumption in our paper that nuclear power is the only major option to replace fossil fuels nor have we in the past, as evidenced by our other peer-reviewed publications. Furthermore, all of our results are based on complete fuel cycle analysis and are presented as mean values along with their ranges. Thus it is incorrect to claim that we single out the worst estimates for coal mortality. Contrary to Sovacool et al.'s assertions, our only bias is our belief that humanity's best chance of success for mitigating the daunting challenge of climate change is to utilize all available and proven means.

coal↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Satellite Mortality Study to Support Space Systems Lifetime Prediction

Estimating the operational lifetime of satellites and spacecraft is a complex process. Operational lifetime can differ from mission design lifetime for a variety of reasons. Unexpected mortality can occur due to human errors in design and fabrication, to human errors in launch and operations, to random anomalies of hardware and software or even satellite function degradation or technology change, leading to unrealized economic or mission return. This study focuses on data collection of public information using, for the first time, a large, publically available dataset, and preliminary analysis of satellite lifetimes, both operational lifetime and design lifetime. The objective of this study is the illustration of the relationship of design life to actual lifetime for some representative classes of satellites and spacecraft. First, a Weibull and Exponential lifetime analysis comparison is performed on the ratio of mission operating lifetime to design life, accounting for terminated and ongoing missions. Next a Kaplan-Meier survivor function, standard practice for clinical trials analysis, is estimated from operating lifetime. Bootstrap resampling is used to provide uncertainty estimates of selected survival probabilities. This study highlights the need for more detailed databases and engineering reliability models of satellite lifetime that include satellite systems and subsystems, operations procedures and environmental characteristics to support the design of complex, multi-generation, long-lived space systems in Earth orbit.

Fox, George↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Infant Mortality and Wear-Out Failures in Polymer and MnO2 Tantalum Capacitors

Reliability testing of modern tantalum capacitors shows the presence of both types, infant mortality (IM) and wearout (WO) failures. To assure reliable operation, the probability of IM failures should be reduced to below the specified level, and the time of WO inception should be greater than the required useful life of the parts at operation conditions. In this work, several types of MnO2 and polymer cathode tantalum capacitors have been tested at highly accelerated conditions to assess voltage acceleration factors, determine adequate burn-in conditions, and assess the useful life. A modified time dependent dielectric breakdown (TDDB) model has been suggested to explain both types of failure, and a physical mechanism of degradation that is based on migration and reactions of oxygen vacancies explains increase of the defect related, IM failures with the level of stress.

tantalum capacitors↗
NASA NTRS2022

Vermont & New Hampshire Ecological Forecasting: Monitoring Trends in Tree Defoliation Due to Lymantria dispar Outbreaks to Predict Future Hardwood Tree Mortality and Health Impacts

The invasive, herbivorous insect Lymantria dispar is a major defoliator of hardwood trees in the northeastern United States. Established populations of L. dispar typically rest at low levels but undergo recurring outbreaks that cause tree mortality if they occur in quick succession or are combined with other stressors on tree health. Widespread defoliation events disrupt local wildlife, economies, and livelihoods. Accurate monitoring of defoliation events is necessary to implement effective land management practices that support tree health. There are challenges to accurately monitoring L. dispar outbreaks that include the ephemeral character of defoliation disturbances and the difficulties of conducting large-scale surveys of L. dispar populations using existing aerial and ground-based data collection methods. To better monitor the impact of L. dispar on forests in Vermont and New Hampshire, the NASA DEVELOP team partnered with organizations responsible for supporting land and invasive species management including the Forest Ecosystem Monitoring Cooperative, the Vermont Agency of Agriculture, Food and Markets, the University of New Hampshire Cooperative Extension, and the New Hampshire Division of Forests and Lands, Forest Health Program. The team used NASA Earth observations collected by the Terra, Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), Landsat 7, and Landsat 8 satellites along with ancillary datasets to map historical tree defoliation from 2012 to 2021. In support of partners’ future land management efforts, the team created a Google Earth Engine tool that displays annual defoliation extent.

Seamore Zhu↗
NASA NTRS1972

Relative biological effectiveness of fast neutrons compared with X-rays: Prenatal mortality in the mouse

The effects of fission neutrons and of X-rays on the mouse zygote are discussed. Seven-week-old virgin mice were allowed a 12-hour mating opportunity beginning at 7:00 P.M. Between 1:30 and 4:00 P.M., except where indicated otherwise, the females which had mated (vaginal plug) during the night were either irradiated or sham-irradiated. At the time of irradiation the zygotes were in a pronuclear stage. Sixteen days later the mice were killed and the uteri dissected. The number of dead embryos, live embryos, and gross anomalies were determined. Dead embryos were classified as to stage of development.

Friedberg, W.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Volcanism, global catastrophe and mass mortality

The effects of very large volcanic eruptions are well documented in many studies, mostly based on observations made on three historic eruptions, Laki 1783; Tambora 1815 and Krakatau 1883. Such eruptions have effects that are catastrophic locally and measurable globally, but it is not clear that even the largest volcanic eruptions have had global catastrophic effects, nor caused mass extinctions. Two different types of volcanic eruption were considered as likely to have the most serious widespread effects: large silicic explosive eruptions producing hundreds or thousands of cubic kilometers of pyroclastic materials, and effusive basaltic eruptions producing of approximately 100 cubic kilometers of lava. In both cases, the global effects are climatic, and attributable to production of stratospheric aerosols. Other possibilities need to be explored. Recent research on global change has emphasized the extreme sensitivity of the links between oceanic circulation, atmospheric circulation and climate. In particular, it was argued that the pattern of ocean current circulation (which strongly influences climate) is unstable; it may rapidly flip from one pattern to a different one, with global climatic consequences. If volcanism has been a factor in global environmental change and a cause of mass extinctions, it seems most likely that it has done so by providing a trigger to other processes, for example by driving oceanic circulation from one mode to another.

Francis, P. W.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Mass mortality and extraterrestrial impacts

The discovery of iridium enrichment at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary resulted in formulation of hypothesis of a cometary or asteroid impact as the cause of the biological extinctions at this boundary. Subsequent discoveries of geochemical anomalies at major stratigraphic boundaries like the Precambrian/Cambrian, Permian/Triassic, Middle/Late Jurassic, resulted in the application of similar extraterrestrial impact theories to explain biological changes at these boundaries. Until recently the major physical evidence, as is the location of the impact crater site, to test the impact induced biological extinction was lacking. The diameter of such a crater would be in the range of 60 to 100 km. The recent discovery of the first impact crater in the ocean provide the first opportunity to test the above theory. The crater, named Montagnais and located on the outer shelf off Nova Scotia, Canada, has a minimum diameter of 42 km, with some evidence to a diameter of more than 60 km. At the Montagnais impact site, micropaleontological analysis of the uppermost 80 m of the fall-back breccia represented by a mixture of pre-impact sediments and basement rocks which fills the crater and of the basal 50 m of post-impact marine sediments which overly the impact deposits, revealed presence of diversified foraminiferal and nannoplankton assemblages. The sediments which are intercalated within the uppermost part of the fall-back breccia, had to be deposited before the meteorite impact. The post-impact deposits were laid down almost immediately after the impact as also supported by the micropaleontological data. In conclusion, micropaleontological studies of sediments from the first submarine impact crater site identified in the ocean did not reveal any mass extinction or significant biological changes at the impact site or in the proximal deep ocean basin.

Jansa, L. F.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Florida Scrub Jay mortality on roadsides

Brevard County, Florida supports two of the three largest remaining Florida Scrub Jay (Aphelocoma coerulescens coerulescens) populations, with about 1870 birds on Kennedy Space Center and 920 birds on Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (Breininger 1989). Between 24 may and 5 June 1989, four Scrub Jay carcasses were collected on two roadsides in Brevard County apparently killed by vehicles.

Dreschel, Thomas W.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Linking Excessive Heat with Daily Heat-Related Mortality over the Coterminous United States

In the United States, extreme heat is the most deadly weather-related hazard. In the face of a warming climate and urbanization, which contributes to local-scale urban heat islands, it is very likely that extreme heat events (EHEs) will become more common and more severe in the U.S. This research seeks to provide historical and future measures of climate-driven extreme heat events to enable assessments of the impacts of heat on public health over the coterminous U.S. We use atmospheric temperature and humidity information from meteorological reanalysis and from Global Climate Models (GCMs) to provide data on past and future heat events. The focus of research is on providing assessments of the magnitude, frequency and geographic distribution of extreme heat in the U.S. to facilitate public health studies. In our approach, long-term climate change is captured with GCM outputs, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of short-term extremes are represented by the reanalysis data. Two future time horizons for 2040 and 2090 are compared to the recent past period of 1981- 2000. We characterize regional-scale temperature and humidity conditions using GCM outputs for two climate change scenarios (A2 and A1B) defined in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). For each future period, 20 years of multi-model GCM outputs are analyzed to develop a 'heat stress climatology' based on statistics of extreme heat indicators. Differences between the two future and the past period are used to define temperature and humidity changes on a monthly time scale and regional spatial scale. These changes are combined with the historical meteorological data, which is hourly and at a spatial scale (12 km) much finer than that of GCMs, to create future climate realizations. From these realizations, we compute the daily heat stress measures and related spatially-specific climatological fields, such as the mean annual number of days above certain thresholds of maximum and minimum air temperatures, heat indices, and a new heat stress variable developed as part of this research that gives an integrated measure of heat stress (and relief) over the course of a day. Comparisons are made between projected (2040 and 2090) and past (1990) heat stress statistics. Outputs are aggregated to the county level, which is a popular scale of analysis for public health interests. County-level statistics are made available to public health researchers by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) via the Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (WONDER) system. This addition of heat stress measures to CDC WONDER allows decision and policy makers to assess the impact of alternative approaches to optimize the public health response to EHEs. Through CDC WONDER, users are able to spatially and temporally query public health and heat-related data sets and create county-level maps and statistical charts of such data across the coterminous U.S.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Historical and Projected Nuclear Power

In the aftermath of the March 2011 accident at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, the future contribution of nuclear power to the global energy supply has become somewhat uncertain. Because nuclear power is an abundant, low-carbon source of base-load power, it could make a large contribution to mitigation of global climate change and air pollution. Using historical production data, we calculate that global nuclear power has prevented an average of 1.84 million air pollution-related deaths and 64 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent (GtCO2-eq) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that would have resulted from fossil fuel burning. On the basis of global projection data that take into account the effects of the Fukushima accident, we find that nuclear power could additionally prevent an average of 420 000−7.04 million deaths and 80−240 GtCO2-eq emissions due to fossil fuels by midcentury, depending on which fuel it replaces. By contrast, we assess that large-scale expansion of unconstrained natural gas use would not mitigate the climate problem and would cause far more deaths than expansion of nuclear power.

nuclear power plants↗
NASA NTRS2013

Response to Comment by Rabilloud on 'prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Historical and Projected Nuclear Power'

The critique by Rabilloud-whose only listed professional affiliation is an antinuclear activist groupis grossly biased and contains numerous misleading, hyperbolic, and erroneous claims about our paper2 and about nuclear energy in general. The nature of his comments bears a striking resemblance to the fallacious reasoning commonly employed by climate change deniers to try to undermine public concern about the climate crisis. Specifically, he resorts to cherry-picking of information and diversionary (red herring) arguments, demands unrealistic exactness, and cites untrustworthy sources. None of his claims undermine any of the key results of our paper, most notably our conclusion that nuclear energy has prevented, and can continue to prevent, a very high number of fatalities and very large greenhouse gas emissions due to fossil fuel burning. It follows that, as uncomfortable as it is for many well-intentioned environmentalists to admit, efforts to undermine nuclear energy also undermine mitigation of climate change and air pollution, with a heavy cost in human lives and potentially disastrous future climate change.

claiming↗
NASA NTRS2020

Farm-Level Risk Factors of Increased Abortion and Mortality in Domestic Ruminants during the 2010 Rift Valley Fever Outbreak in Central South Africa

Background:Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks in domestic ruminants have severe socio-economic impacts. Climate-based continental predictions providing early warnings to regions at risk for RVF outbreaks are not of a high enough resolution for ruminant owners to assess their individual risk. (2) Methods: We analyzed risk factors for RVF occurrence and severity at the farm level using the number of domestic ruminant deaths and abortions reported by farmers in central South Africa during the 2010 RVF outbreaks using a Bayesian multinomial hurdle framework. (3) Results: We found strong support that the proportion of days with precipitation, the number of water sources, and the proportion of goats in the herd were positively associated with increased severity of RVF (the numbers of deaths and abortions). We did not find an association between any risk factors and whether RVF was reported on farms. (4) Conclusions: At the farm level we identified risk factors of RVF severity; however, there was little support for risk factors of RVF occurrence. The identification of farm-level risk factors for Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) occurrence would support and potentially improve current prediction methods and would provide animal owners with critical information needed in order to assess their herd’s risk of RVFV infection.

Melinda K Rostel↗