SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
This is a python package used to fit an unknown function from data that potential contains systematic biases related to metadata. The model fits the unknown function and uses a Bayesian horseshoe prior model to impose sparsity on the bias terms. This code has been generalized from research code developed for AIACHNE into a package that should have more general application in a wider class of statistical models.
We study systematics associated with estimating simple stellar population (SSP) parameters – age, metallicity [M/H], α-enhancement [α/Fe], and initial mass function (IMF) shape – and associated M * /L gradients, of elliptical slow rotators (E-SRs), fast rotators (E-FRs), and S0s from stacked spectra of galaxies in the MaNGA survey. These systematics arise from (i) how one normalizes the spectra when stacking; (ii) having to subtract emission before estimating absorption line strengths; (iii) the decision to fit the whole spectrum or just a few absorption lines; (iv) SSP model differences (e.g. isochrones, enrichment, IMF). The MILES+Padova SSP models, fit to the H β , 〈Fe〉, TiO 2SDSS , and [MgFe] Lick indices in the stacks, indicate that out to the half-light radius R e : (a) ages are younger and [α/Fe] values are lower in the central regions but the opposite is true of [M/H]; (b) the IMF is more bottom-heavy in the center, but is close to Kroupa beyond about R e /2; (c) this makes M * /L about 2 × larger in the central regions than beyond R e /2. While the models of Conroy et al. return similar [M/H] and [α/Fe] profiles, the age and (hence) M * /L profiles can differ significantly even for solar abundances and a Kroupa IMF; different responses to non-solar abundances and IMF parametrization further compound these differences. There are clear (model independent) differences between E-SRs, E-FRs, and S0s: younger ages and less enhanced [α/Fe] values suggest that E-FRs and S0s are not SSPs, but relaxing this assumption is unlikely to change their inferred M * /L gradients significantly.
We present a systematic study of cosmological parameter bias in weak lensing and large-scale structure analyses for upcoming imaging surveys induced by the interplay of intrinsic alignments (IA) and photometric redshift (photo-z) model misspecification error. We first examine the degeneracies between the parameters of the tidal alignment–tidal torquing (TATT) model for IA and of a photo-z model including a mean shift ( Δ z ¯ ) and variance ( σ z ) for each tomographic bin of lenses and sources, under a variety of underlying true IA behaviors. We identify strong degeneracies between: (1) the redshift scaling of the tidal alignment amplitude and the mean shift and variances of source bins, (2) the redshift scaling of the tidal torquing amplitude and the variance of the lowest- z source bin, and (3) the IA source density weighting and the mean shift and variance of several source bins. We then use this information to guide our exploration of the level of cosmological parameter bias which can be induced given incorrect modeling of IA, photo-z, or both. We find that marginalizing over all the parameters of TATT is generally sufficient to preclude cosmological parameter bias in the scenarios we consider. However, this does not necessarily mean that IA and photo-z parameters are themselves unbiased, nor does it mean that the best-fit model is a good fit to the data. We also find scenarios where the inferred parameters produce χ d . o . f . 2 values indicative of a good fit but cosmological parameter bias is significant, particularly when the IA source density weighting parameter is not marginalized over. Published by the American Physical Society 2024
To understand the behavior of electrochemical systems, we need to reduce the dimensionality of the measured current-voltage-time (I-V-t) data by fitting models, thus enabling us to analyze and compare the governing physics. Traditionally, the process for this is an 'expert first' approach: defining the model and its explicit assumptions based on inductive reasoning or empirical observation, fitting small portions of the I-V-t data where assumptions are most valid or carefully designing experiments to enforce key assumptions, and then interpreting the model parameters. However, modern data-driven methods enable a new paradigm: a 'data first' approach, where the latent behaviors governing the system's measured response are identified directly using machine-learning models that optimize both model structure and parameters from the I-V-t data, guaranteeing that the learned model explains as much of the observed system response as possible. After model identification, the model can then be interrogated by an expert to connect observed behaviors with underlying physics. This talk will review several different types of electrochemical analysis (electrochemical impedance, differential voltage-capacity, electrochemical kinetics) and compare the traditional and data-driven methods for analyzing the data.
A one-dimensional (1D) finite-element model of fission product transport in the AGR-3/4 experiment has been developed using the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework and implemented in the fuel performance code, BISON. The model resolves capsule-specific geometries, materials, and temperature histories and simulates radial migration of fission products from the fuel compact through the inner ring, outer ring, and into the sink ring. Model parameters governing diffusion and sorption were estimated for key fission products – cesium (Cs), and europium (Eu) – by simultaneously fitting modeled isotopic concentration profiles and total ring inventories to a post-irradiation experimental measurement. These data include gamma scanning, liquid scintillation for Sr-90, radial deconsolidation leach-burn-leach analysis, tomographic reconstructions, and destructive physical sampling. A mortar-based interfacial sorption framework was implemented to enforce physically consistent mass transfer and flux conservation across gas gaps. Two classes of parameter sets were derived: a least-squares best-fit, and a safety-oriented conservative-fit, what applies strong penalties for underprediction of sink inventories. Across all twelve capsules, the model successfully reproduces the dominant radial transport trends for Cs, Sr, with decreasing concentrations from the compact outward through successive rings. Cs behavior is captured most consistently, while strontium predictions reveal systematic trade-offs between compact accuracy and conservative sink-ring bounding. The results demonstrate that sink ring weighted calibration provides conservative, safety relevant bounds on low temperature fission product transport, but at the cost of underpredicting compact inventories for Sr isotopes. These discrepancies highlight the need for additional physics, including fast-slow diffusion model, incorporating trapping mechanism in the transport behavior. Overall, this work establishes a robust, capsule-specific modeling framework for AGR-3/4 fission product transport and provides a defensible basis for parameter selection in source-term and fuel performance analyses for high temperature gas-cooled reactors.
Quantifying charge-state transition energy levels of impurities in semiconductors is critical to understanding and engineering their optoelectronic properties for applications ranging from solar photovoltaics to infrared lasers. While these transition levels can be measured and calculated accurately, such efforts are time-consuming and more rapid prediction methods would be beneficial. Here, we significantly reduce the time typically required to predict impurity transition levels using multi-fidelity datasets and a machine learning approach employing features based on elemental properties and impurity positions. We use transition levels obtained from low-fidelity (i.e., local-density approximation or generalized gradient approximation) density functional theory (DFT) calculations, corrected using a recently proposed modified band alignment scheme, which well-approximates transition levels from high-fidelity DFT (i.e., hybrid HSE06). Further, the model fit to the large multi-fidelity database shows improved accuracy compared to the models trained on the more limited high-fidelity values. Crucially, in our approach, when using the multi-fidelity data, high-fidelity values are not required for model training, significantly reducing the computational cost required for training the model. Our machine learning model of transition levels has a root mean squared (mean absolute) error of 0.36 (0.27) eV vs high-fidelity hybrid functional values when averaged over 14 semiconductor systems from the II–VI and III–V families. As a guide for use on other systems, we assessed the model on simulated data to show the expected accuracy level as a function of bandgap for new materials of interest. Finally, we use the model to predict a complete space of impurity charge-state transition levels in all zinc blende III–V and II–VI systems.
Abstract Analysis of phylogenetic trees has become an essential tool in epidemiology. Likelihood-based methods fit models to phylogenies to draw inferences about the phylodynamics and history of viral transmission. However, these methods are often computationally expensive, which limits the complexity and realism of phylodynamic models and makes them ill-suited for informing policy decisions in real-time during rapidly developing outbreaks. Likelihood-free methods using deep learning are pushing the boundaries of inference beyond these constraints. In this paper, we extend, compare, and contrast a recently developed deep learning method for likelihood-free inference from trees. We trained multiple deep neural networks using phylogenies from simulated outbreaks that spread among 5 locations and found they achieve close to the same levels of accuracy as Bayesian inference under the true simulation model. We compared robustness to model misspecification of a trained neural network to that of a Bayesian method. We found that both models had comparable performance, converging on similar biases. We also implemented a method of uncertainty quantification called conformalized quantile regression that we demonstrate has similar patterns of sensitivity to model misspecification as Bayesian highest posterior density (HPD) and greatly overlap with HPDs, but have lower precision (more conservative). Finally, we trained and tested a neural network against phylogeographic data from a recent study of the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic in Europe and obtained similar estimates of region-specific epidemiological parameters and the location of the common ancestor in Europe. Along with being as accurate and robust as likelihood-based methods, our trained neural networks are on average over 3 orders of magnitude faster after training. Our results support the notion that neural networks can be trained with simulated data to accurately mimic the good and bad statistical properties of the likelihood functions of generative phylogenetic models.
A glow-curve analysis code was previously developed in C++ to analyze thermoluminescent dosimeter glow curves using automated peak detection while applying a first-order kinetics model. A newer version of this code was implemented to improve the automated peak detection and curve fitting models. The Stochastic Gradient Descent Algorithm was introduced to replace the prior approach of taking first and second-order derivatives for peak detection. Additionally, early stopping mechanisms were invoked to improve the previously used Levenberg-Marquardt Algorithm employed for curve fitting. The two software versions were compared through glow curve analysis of different thermoluminescent dosimeter materials and calculation of the corresponding figures of merit. Altogether improvements were shown, namely an increase in the number of peaks detected and a reduction of the mean figure of merit by approximately 46%.
This study developed the design principle of bio-derived ether fuels with low soot emission and high reactivity based on an experiment-theory combined approach.
Multimodel ensembling has been widely used to improve climate model predictions, and the improvement strongly depends on the ensembling scheme. In this work, we propose a Bayesian neural network (BNN) ensembling method, which combines climate models within a Bayesian model averaging framework, to improve the predictive capability of model ensembles. Our proposed BNN approach calculates spatiotemporally varying model weights and biases by leveraging individual models' simulation skill, calibrates the ensemble prediction against observations by considering observation data uncertainty, and quantifies epistemic uncertainty when extrapolating to new conditions. More importantly, the BNN method provides interpretability about which climate model contributes more to the ensemble prediction at which locations and times. Thus, beyond its predictive capability, the method also brings insights and understanding of the models to guide further model and data development. In this study, we design experiments using an ensemble of CMIP6 climate model simulations to illustrate the BNN ensembling method's capability with respect to prediction accuracy, interpretability, and uncertainty quantification (UQ). We demonstrate that BNN can correctly assign larger weights to the regions and seasons where the individual model fits the observation better. Moreover, its offered interpretability is consistent with our understanding of localized climate model performance. Additionally, BNN shows an increasing uncertainty when the prediction is farther away from the period with constrained data, which appropriately reflects our trustworthiness of the models in the changing climate.
Quantum computing testbeds exhibit high-fidelity quantum control over small collections of qubits, enabling performance of precise, repeatable operations followed by measurements. Currently, these noisy intermediate-scale devices can support a sufficient number of sequential operations prior to decoherence such that near term algorithms can be performed with proximate accuracy (like chemical accuracy for quantum chemistry problems). While the results of these algorithms are imperfect, these imperfections can help bootstrap quantum computer testbed development. Demonstrations of these algorithms over the past few years, coupled with the idea that imperfect algorithm performance can be caused by several dominant noise sources in the quantum processor, which can be measured and calibrated during algorithm execution or in post-processing, has led to the use of noise mitigation to improve typical computational results. Conversely, benchmark algorithms coupled with noise mitigation can help diagnose the nature of the noise, whether systematic or purely random. Here, we outline the use of coherent noise mitigation techniques as a characterization tool in trapped-ion testbeds. We perform model-fitting of the noisy data to determine the noise source based on realistic physics focused noise models and demonstrate that systematic noise amplification coupled with error mitigation schemes provides useful data for noise model deduction. Further, in order to connect lower level noise model details with application specific performance of near term algorithms, we experimentally construct the loss landscape of a variational algorithm under various injected noise sources coupled with error mitigation techniques. This type of connection enables application-aware hardware codesign, in which the most important noise sources in specific applications, like quantum chemistry, become foci of improvement in subsequent hardware generations.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Understanding how leaf gas exchange responds to changes in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is key to predicting tropical forest resilience to climate change. Stomata regulate leaf water and CO2 diffusion, and respond to changes in temperature and relative humidity (RH), two drivers of VPD. At high temperatures, the cuticular pathway may also become significant and participate in the overall leaf conductance. Here, we measured gas exchange under light and dark conditions to investigate the stomatal and cuticular responses to temperature and RH on detached branches in five tropical tree species. Leaf conductance in the dark, when stomata are essentially closed, was not markedly impacted by temperature and RH, suggesting a minimal response of the cuticular pathway to these conditions. We compared six steady-state conductance models incorporating different effects of photosynthesis and evaporative demand on stomatal control. All models performed well (residual standard deviation, σ, < 0.025 mol m-2 s-1), but the best-fitting model (σ = 0.017 mol m-2 s-1) used a nonlinear relationship between photosynthesis and stomatal conductance and incorporated RH rather than vapor pressure difference. All models overestimated the steady-state conductance at high RH. Furthermore, leaf conductance immediately increased after a decrease in RH (wrong-way response), but not after an increase in leaf temperature. This suggests that the mechanisms underlying stomatal response to VPD need further investigation. The non-linear coupling between photosynthetic rate and stomatal conductance indicates a sharper physiological response than previously acknowledged.
Accurate measurement of atmospheric turbulent fluctuations is critical for understanding environmental dynamics and improving models in applications such as wind energy. Advanced remote sensing technologies are essential for capturing instantaneous velocity and temperature fluctuations. Acoustic tomography (AT) offers a promising approach that utilizes sound travel times between an array of transducers to reconstruct turbulence fields. This study presents a systematic evaluation of the time-dependent stochastic inversion (TDSI) algorithm for AT using synthetic travel-time measurements derived from large-eddy simulation (LES) fields under both neutral and convective atmospheric boundary-layer conditions. Unlike prior work that relied on field observations or idealized fields, the LES framework provides a ground-truth atmospheric state, enabling quantitative assessment of TDSI retrieval reliability, sensitivity to travel-time measurement noise, and dependence on covariance model parameters and temporal data integration. A detailed sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the best-fit model parameters, identify the tolerance thresholds for parameter mismatch, and establish a maximum spatial resolution. The TDSI algorithm successfully reconstructed large-scale velocity and temperature fluctuations with root mean square errors ( RMSE s) below 0.35 m/s and 0.12 K, respectively. Spectral analysis established a maximum spatial resolution of approximately 1.4 m, and reconstructions remained robust for travel-time measurement uncertainties up to 0.002 s. These findings provide critical insights into the operational limits of TDSI and inform future applications of AT for atmospheric turbulence characterization and system design.
Freeway crash prediction models are the basic of traffic safety research, yet crash occurrence and the influencing factors change over time. In order to make sure the implemented safety models fit the current traffic environment, this study conducts a comparative analysis of 2017 and 2020 datasets collected from freeways in Suzhou, China. Herein, considering the spatial correlation among analysis units and the hierarchical data structure, a Bayesian conditional autoregressive negative binomial (CAR-NB) model and a Bayesian hierarchical CAR-NB (HCAR-NB) model were used to explore the safety influencing factors, and a traditional NB model was developed for further comparison. To update the HCAR-NB model from 2017 to 2020, Bayesian inference with informative priors was used to improve its goodness of fit and efficiency. Preliminary results showed that 1) the HCAR-NB model outperformed the NB model and CAR-NB model in prediction accuracy, and 2) the number of crashes was significantly correlated with average speed, speed variance, road segment length, number of lanes, and presence of ramps. The potential for safety improvement (PSI) method was applied to the modeling results to identify hotspots for the two years. The results confirmed that the hotspots spatiotemporally shifted among the freeways. The proposed crash prediction model and updating method are expected to assist implementation of informed countermeasures for freeway safety improvement.
Context.Within the framework of investigating the link between the central super massive black holes in the cores of galaxies and the galaxies themselves, we detected a variable X-ray source in the center of CGCG 077-102 NED02, which is a member of the CGCG 077-102 galaxy pair within the Abell 2063 cluster of galaxies. Aims.Our goal is to combine X-ray and optical data to demonstrate that this object harbors an active super massive black hole in its core, and to relate this to the dynamical status of the galaxy pair within the Abell 2063 cluster. Methods.We usedChandraandXMM-Newtonarchival data to derive the X-ray spectral shape and variability. We also obtained optical spectroscopy to detect the expected emission lines that are typically found in active galactic nuclei. Finally, we used public ZTF imaging data to investigate the optical variability. Results.There is no evidence of multiple X-ray sources or extended components within CGCG 077-102 NED02. Single X-ray spectral models fit the source well. We detect significant, nonrandom inter-observation 0.5–10 keV X-ray flux variabilities, for observations separated by ∼4 days for short-term variations and by up to ∼700 days for long-term variations. Optical spectroscopy points toward a passive galaxy for CGCG 077-102 NED01 and a Seyfert for CGCG 077-102 NED02. The classification of CGCG 077-102 NED02 is also consistent with its X-ray luminosity of over 10 42 erg s −1 . We do not detect short-term variability in the optical ZTF light curves. However, we find a significant long-term stochastic variability in theg-band that can be well described by the damped random walk model with a best-fit characteristic damping timescale ofτ DRW = 30 −12 +28 days. Finally, the CGCG 077-102 galaxy pair is deeply embedded within the Abell 2063 potential, with a long enough history within this massive structure to have been affected by the influence of this cluster for a long time. Conclusions.Our observations point toward a moderately massive black hole in the center of CGCG 077-102 NED02 of ∼10 6 M ⊙ . As compared to another similar pair in the literature, CGCG 077-102 NED02 is not heavily obscured, perhaps because of the surrounding intracluster medium ram-pressure stripping.
The UCSB database on cavity evolution in 9-12Cr tempered martensitic steels (TMS), includes the results for both dual heavy and helium ion (DII), and High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) in situ helium injection (ISHI) neutron irradiations at 500°C. These results were combined with literature single ion and fission neutron irradiation data to derive a model for the void volume fraction, f v , as a function of displacements per atom (dpa) and transmutant helium concentrations in atomic parts per million (appm). The scientific foundation for the paper is described in a companion paper entitled “Cavity Evolution and Void Swelling in Dual Ion Irradiated Tempered Martensitic Steels”. Here, in this study, we show that f v (dpa, He/dpa) is described by the incubation dose, dpa i , for the onset of void growth, and the post-incubation growth rate, f v ’(%/dpa). Both dpa i and f v ’ decrease with increasing He/dpa at > ~ 5. The dpa i is also lower for the ISHI neutron irradiations at the same He/dpa. Single heavy ion and fission reactor neutron irradiations, with low He/dpa ratios, have a much larger dpa i . Based on a combined analysis of DII, single ion, ISHI and fission neutron data, we further show that the post-incubation f v data analyzed here have a common empirical curve shape, with f v ’ reaching up to ~ 0.2%/dpa at very high dpa. We also show that f v ’ can be predicted based on a physical model of defect partitioning between evolving sinks. At 500°C and fusion relevant He/dpa ≈ 10, the best-fit model predicts nominal swelling, S = f v /(1-f v ), of ~ 1.1, 4.9 and 16% at 50, 100 and 200 dpa, respectively. The physically motivated, data-driven model includes estimated uncertainties for both dpa i and f v ’.
Recently, a family of tetraamine-functionalized metal-organic frameworks (MOF) has been reported as promising sorbent materials for capturing CO2 from flue gas conditions relevant to natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) applications. The main advantages of these materials are their two-step cooperative CO2 adsorption, which gives rise to unusual two step-shaped CO2 adsorption profiles and their high thermal stability. This work presents the modelling of the two-transition isotherm of the tetraamine-appended MOF, N,N'-bis(3-aminopropyl)-1,4-diaminobutane (3-4-3)-appended Mg2(dobpdc), and the techno-economic analysis (TEA) of carbon capture processes utilizing this sorbent. Due to the unusual isotherm shapes of the experimental CO2 adsorption data for tetraamine-appended Mg2(dobpdc) and the strong nonlinearity of CO2 loading with respect to temperature and pressure, we tested two different models which use logistic functions for representing the different isotherm behaviors in the different pressure ranges. The first model uses the quadratic isotherm model in the low-pressure region, the Langmuir isotherm model in the middle pressure range, and the dual site Langmuir isotherm model in the high-pressure range. To model the transition between regions we used the arctangent functions independent of temperature and the thermal effect was accounted by using the Clausius-Clapeyron relation]. The second model is an extension of the weighted dual-site Langmuir isotherm model presented by Hughes et al.. In this extended model, the dual-site Langmuir isotherm is employed in the three transition regions, using temperature-dependent logistic functions to activate or deactivate the isotherm model in the low, middle, and high-pressure ranges. Both models fit the experimental data quite well with root mean squared errors (RMSE’s) of 0.41 and 0.17 for model 1 and model 2, respectively. Since model 2 resulted in a lower RMSE, it was leveraged for the development of the gas/solid contactor models used by the TEA. Specifically, two different contactor models, an axial-flow fixed bed and moving bed contactor, were developed as part of this work. These models are dynamic, pressure-driven, and consist of mass, energy, and momentum conservation equations. A kinetic model was also developed by performing parameter estimation using experimental fixed bed breakthrough data. These models are then used to simulate CO2 capture processes from the flue gas generated from a ~600 gross MW NGCC power plant. A cost model was developed which considers the capital cost of the reactors and the significant operating costs such as steam and electricity. Using NETL’s Framework for the Optimization and Quantification of Uncertainty of Uncertainty and Surrogates tool (FOQUS), which has the capability of linking models built using numerous modelling platforms with derivative-free optimization solvers, a techno-economic optimization of the carbon capture processes was performed which minimizes the cost of capture.