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At least 73 records · Page 4

Stable Simulation of the Community Atmosphere Model Using Machine‐Learning Physical Parameterization Trained With Experience Replay

In recent years, machine learning (ML) models have been used to improve physical parameterizations of general circulation models (GCMs). A significant challenge of integrating ML models into GCMs is the online instability when they are coupled for long‐term simulation. We present a new strategy that demonstrates robust online stability when the physical parameterization package of an atmospheric GCM is replaced by a deep ML model. The method uses experience replay with a multistep training scheme of the ML model in which the model's own output at the previous time step is used in the training. Predicted physics tendencies in the replay buffer with the most recent errors in the training iterations are reused, making the ML model learn from its own errors. The training method reduces the gap between the offline and online environments of the ML model. The method is used to train the ML model as the physical parameterization of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) with training data from the Multi‐scale Modeling Framework high resolution simulations. Three 6‐year online simulations of the CAM5 are carried out by using the ML physics package. The simulated spatial distributions of precipitation, surface temperature and zonally averaged atmospheric fields demonstrate overall better accuracy than that of the standard CAM5 and benchmark model even without the use of additional physical constraints or tuning. This work is the first to demonstrate a solution to address the online instability problem in climate modeling with ML physics by using experience replay.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Space Weather Products at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

In addition to supporting space research in the international community, the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has as its second objective to bring to apply the power of modern research models toward space weather specification and forecasting. Initially motivated by the objective to test models and to ease the transition of research models to space weather forecasting organization, the CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as large number of modeling and data products for space weather forecasting. Over time, these activities have evolved into tailored products for partners, as well as into a direct support of the space weather needs within NASA robotic mission community. Accessible through a customizable interface, users within the US or at partnering institutions internationally have access to space weather tools driven by the most advanced space research models. Through partnering with agencies and institutions in the US and abroad, the CCMC strives to set up further data sharing agreements to the benefit of all participating institutions. In this presentation, we provide an overview of existing CCMC space weather services and products, and we will explore additional avenues for international collaborations.

Hesse, Michael↗

An Extensible Perturbed Parameter Ensemble for the Community Atmosphere Model Version 6

This paper documents the methodology and preliminary results from a Perturbed Parameter Ensemble (PPE) technique, where multiple parameters are varied simultaneously and the parameter values are determined with Latin hypercube sampling. This is done with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We apply the PPE method to CESM2-CAM6 to understand climate sensitivity to atmospheric physics parameters. The initial simulations vary 45 parameters in the microphysics, convection, turbulence and aerosol schemes with 263 ensemble members. These atmospheric parameters are typically the most uncertain in many climate models. Control simulations are analyzed and targeted simulations to understand climate forcing due to aerosols and fast climate feedbacks. The use of various emulators is explored in the multi- dimensional space mapping input parameters to output metrics. Parameter impacts on various model outputs, such as radiation, cloud and aerosol properties are evaluated. Machine learning is also used to probe optimal parameter values against observations. Our findings show that using PPE is a valuable tool for climate uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, by varying many parameters simultaneously, we find that many different combinations of parameter values can produce results consistent with observations, and thus careful analysis of tuning is important. The CESM2-CAM6 PPE is publicly available, and extensible to other configurations to address questions of other model processes in the atmosphere and other model components (e.g. coupling to the land surface).

Machine learning↗

Structure and energetics of standing eddies in the winter Northern Hemisphere simulated by the NCAR Community Climate Model and the GLA Climate Model

The structure and maintenance of standing eddies in the NCAR Community Climate Model and the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres Climate Model are examined. The energy equations and data used in the study, and the differences between the two GCMs are discussed. The three-dimensional structure (height, temperature, and vertical velocity) and potential and kinetic energies and thermal and dynamic interactions of the standing eddies are described.

Lee, Yen-Huei↗

Source attribution of Arctic black carbon and sulfate aerosols and associated Arctic surface warming during 1980–2018

Observations show that the concentrations of Arctic sulfate and black carbon (BC) aerosols have declined since the early 1980s. Previous studies have reported that reducing sulfate aerosols potentially contributed to the recent rapid Arctic warming. In this study, a global aerosol–climate model (Community Atmosphere Model, version 5) equipped with Explicit Aerosol Source Tagging (CAM5-EAST) is applied to quantify the source apportionment of aerosols in the Arctic from 16 source regions and the role of aerosol variations in affecting changes in the Arctic surface temperature from 1980 to 2018. The CAM5-EAST simulated surface concentrations of sulfate and BC in the Arctic had a decrease of 43% and 23%, respectively, in 2014–2018 relative to 1980–1984 mainly due to the reduction of emissions from Europe, Russia and local Arctic sources. Increases in emissions from South and East Asia led to positive trends in Arctic sulfate and BC in the upper troposphere. All aerosol radiative impacts are considered including aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions, as well as black carbon deposition on snow- and ice-covered surfaces. Within the Arctic, sulfate reductions caused a top-of-atmosphere (TOA) warming of 0.11 and 0.25 W m -2 through aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions, respectively. While the changes in Arctic atmospheric BC has little impact on local radiative forcing, the decrease in BC in snow and ice led to a net cooling of 0.05 W m -2 . By applying climate sensitivity factors for different latitudinal bands, global changes in sulfate and BC during 2014–2018 (with respect to 1980–1984) exerted a +0.088 and 0.057 K Arctic surface warming, respectively, through aerosol–radiation interactions. Through aerosol–cloud interactions, the sulfate reduction caused an Arctic warming of +0.193 K between the two time periods. The weakened BC effect on snow–ice albedo led to an Arctic surface cooling of -0.041 K. The changes in atmospheric sulfate and BC outside the Arctic produced a total Arctic warming of +0.25 K, the majority of which is due to the midlatitude changes in radiative forcing. Our results suggest that changes in aerosols over the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere have a larger impact on Arctic temperature than other regions through enhanced poleward heat transport. The combined total effects of sulfate and BC produced an Arctic surface warming of +0.297 K, explaining approximately 20% of the observed Arctic warming since the early 1980s.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Interpreting machine learning prediction of fire emissions and comparison with FireMIP process-based models

Annual burned areas in the United States have increased 2-fold during the past decades. With more large fires resulting in more emissions of fine particulate matter, an accurate prediction of fire emissions is critical for quantifying the impacts of fires on air quality, human health, and climate. This study aims to construct a machine learning (ML) model with game-theory interpretation to predict monthly fire emissions over the contiguous US (CONUS) and to understand the controlling factors of fire emissions. The optimized ML model is used to diagnose the process-based models in the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) to inform future development. Results show promising performance for the ML model, Community Land Model (CLM), and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator-Interactive Fire And Emission Algorithm For Natural Environments (JULES-INFERNO) in reproducing the spatial distributions, seasonality, and interannual variability of fire emissions over the CONUS. Regional analysis shows that only the ML model and CLM simulate the realistic interannual variability of fire emissions for most of the subregions (r >0.95 for ML and r =0.14~0.70 for CLM), except for Mediterranean California, where all the models perform poorly (r =0.74 for ML and r <0.30 for the FireMIP models). Regarding seasonality, most models capture the peak emission in July over the western US. However, all models except for the ML model fail to reproduce the bimodal peaks in July and October over Mediterranean California, which may be explained by the smaller wind speeds of the atmospheric forcing data during Santa Ana wind events and limitations in model parameterizations for capturing the effects of Santa Ana winds on fire activity. Furthermore, most models struggle to capture the spring peak in emissions in the southeastern US, probably due to underrepresentation of human effects and the influences of winter dryness on fires in the models. As for extreme events, both the ML model and CLM successfully reproduce the frequency map of extreme emission occurrence but overestimate the number of months with extremely large fire emissions. Comparing the fire PM 2.5 emissions from the ML model with process-based fire models highlights their strengths and uncertainties for regional analysis and prediction and provides useful insights into future directions for model improvements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Model-Specific Metadata for Enhancing Space Science Models

The Space Weather and Heliophysics modeling community, supported by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov), provides a collaborative platform for space weather models and data. Flexible metadata is vital for advancing scientific research and fostering collaboration. Our work in expressing complex simulations of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), particularly Global Magnetosphere (GM) grid components, in terms of simple metadata records shows great promise in creating searchable and reusable units of knowledge. Such records can be readily utilized to support the process of scientific discovery, closely aligning with the goals outlined in the Open Science initiative. Our primary goal is to show the scalability and benefits of metadata-focused methodologies. This presentation highlights the potential for applying metadata methodologies to other complex models, improving usability, supplying efficient documentation and fostering interdisciplinary research.

space weather↗

Implementation and Evaluation of Irrigation Techniques in the Community Land Model

Several previous studies have highlighted the irrigation-induced impacts on the global and regional water cycle, energy budget, and near-surface climate. While land models are widely used to address this question, the implementations of irrigation in these models vary in complexity. Here, we expand the representation of irrigation in Community Land Model to enable six different irrigation methods. We find that using a combination of irrigation methods, including default, sprinkler, flood and paddy techniques performs best as determined by evaluating the simulated irrigation water withdrawals against observations, and therefore select this combination as the new irrigation scheme. Then, the impact of the new irrigation scheme on surface fluxes is evaluated and detected using single-point simulations. Finally, the global and regional irrigation-induced impacts on surface energy and water fluxes are compared using both the original and the new irrigation scheme. The new irrigation scheme substantially reduces the bias and root-mean-square error of simulated irrigation water withdrawal in the USA and other countries, but considerably overestimates withdrawals in Central China. Results of single-point experiments show that different irrigation methods have different effects on surface fluxes, while the magnitudes are small. At the global scale, the new scheme enlarges the irrigation-induced impacts on water and energy variables relative to the original scheme, with varying magnitudes across regions. Overall, our results suggest that this newly developed scheme is a better tool for simulating irrigation-induced impacts on climate, and highlight the added value of incorporating human water management in Earth system models.

Community land models↗

Validation of cloud forcing simulated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model using observations from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment

Satellite measurements of the effect of clouds on the top of atmosphere radiative energy budget are used to validate model simulations from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (NCAR CCM). The ability of the NCAR CCM to reproduce the monthly mean global distribution and temporal variability on both daily and seasonal time scales is assessed. The comparison reveals several deficiencies in the CCM cloud representation. Most notable are the difficulties in properly simulating the effect of clouds on the planetary albedo. This problem arises from discrepancies in the model's portrayal of low-level cloudiness and leads to significant errors in the absorbed solar radiation simulated by the model. The CCM performs much better in simulating the effect of clouds on the longwave radiation emitted to space, indicating its relative success in capturing the vertical distribution of cloudiness. The daily variability of the radiative effects of clouds in both the shortwave and longwave spectral regions is systematically overestimated. Analysis of the seasonal variations illustrates a distinct lack of coupling in the seasonal changes in the radiative effects of cloudiness between the tropics and mid-latitudes and between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere. Much of this problem also arises from difficulties in simulating low-level cloudiness, placing further emphasis on the need for better model parameterizations of boundary layer clouds.

Soden, B. J.↗

An extensible perturbed parameter ensemble for the Community Atmosphere Model version 6

This paper documents the methodology and preliminary results from a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) technique, where multiple parameters are varied simultaneously and the parameter values are determined with Latin hypercube sampling. This is done with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6), the atmospheric component of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). We apply the PPE method to CESM2–CAM6 to understand climate sensitivity to atmospheric physics parameters. The initial simulations vary 45 parameters in the microphysics, convection, turbulence and aerosol schemes with 263 ensemble members. These atmospheric parameters are typically the most uncertain in many climate models. Control simulations and targeted simulations to understand climate forcing due to aerosols and fast climate feedbacks are analyzed. The use of various emulators is explored in the multi-dimensional space mapping input parameters to output metrics. Parameter impacts on various model outputs, such as radiation, cloud and aerosol properties, are evaluated. Machine learning is also used to probe optimal parameter values against observations. Our findings show that PPE is a valuable tool for climate uncertainty analysis. Furthermore, by varying many parameters simultaneously, we find that many different combinations of parameter values can produce results consistent with observations, and thus careful analysis of tuning is important. The CESM2–CAM6 PPE is publicly available and extensible to other configurations to address questions of other model processes in the atmosphere and other model components (e.g., coupling to the land surface).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Highlights of Space Weather Tools and Resources at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

In this presentation, we showcase a diverse array of tools and resources offered by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) to advance space weather research and support space weather services. Highlights include the Run-on-Request (RoR) and continuous run simulation services, the multi-purpose integrated Space Weather Analysis (iSWA) system (has been used for space weather monitoring, anomaly resolution, and education), space weather event database DONKI, the validation tool called CAMEL, and various scoreboard activities serving as model validation efforts before a space weather event/condition occurs (this type of pre-event validation enhances the accuracy and credibility of space weather predictions from the community). In addition, CCMC’s is an active participant providing strong support for NASA’s Heliophysics Big Year activities. Above all, our team welcomes collaborations in the broad range of áreas. Through this presentation, we aim to inspire engagement and collaboration among latinoamerican scientific communities and CCMC.

Yihua Zheng↗

Reducing Barriers in Space Weather Research and Operations with Next-Generation Simulation Services at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC)

Space weather forecasting capabilities are becoming increasingly important to the health of advanced technological infrastructure. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) serves as a key liaison in the US space weather program between the research and operations communities by providing a wide range of tools and capabilities that help to evaluate, compare, exercise, and archive the results of simulations of a growing list of space weather models. With its unique toolset, CCMC supports space weather research and model development that advances our understanding of space weather phenomena and improves forecasting skill, while also facilitating development of space weather applications and deployment of operational capabilities. Guided by experience from over 20 years of providing simulation services, feedback from its research, operational and educational users world-wide, recommendations from CCMC Advisory Group and Programmatic Review Panel, the CCMC has begun work on the next generation system for its simulation services and model output archives. The new system has been envisioned to employ state-of-the-art technologies and standards to provide a user-oriented experience while improving ease of access, transparency, interoperability with partner systems, and enhancing reliability by incorporating advanced automation for performance monitoring and intelligent failover. In the presentation, we will give an overview of the current CCMC ecosystem and discuss updates to some of the key services of the system, including Runs-on-Request, Instant Runs, and Continuous Runs. We will also describe how a planned expansion and standardization of data archival activities will enhance the role of CCMC as a world-class provider of heliophysics information for the research and analysis of space weather. It is our hope that this evolution of the services can further reduce the barriers and burdens on researchers, forecasters and decision makers who rely on CCMC for their daily research and operations.

Space Weather↗

Community Coordinated Modeling Center Support of Operations: Real-Time Simulations and V & V.

In support of Operations Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) performing validation and verification of space weather models. To identify suitable metrics the CCMC focus on parameters most useful to operations that CCMC resident models can provide. The real time simulations carried out at CCMC are an essential tool to test model performance and stability by using input conditions that may occur in nature at any time. Since 2001, the magnetospheric MHD model BATSRUS has been run in real time using ACE real time data. CCMC staff developed an experimental real-time system that controls uploading of the real-time ACE data, monitors continuous model execution, initiates automatic recovery procedure in case of data gaps or hardware failures, synchronizes BATSRUS and FRC runs, and periodically runs IDL based visualization software.

Kuznetsova, M.↗

Insights of warm-cloud biases in Community Atmospheric Model 5 and 6 from the single-column modeling framework and Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) observations

There has been a growing concern that most climate models predict precipitation that is too frequent, likely due to lack of reliable subgrid variability and vertical variations in microphysical processes in low-level warm clouds. In this study, the warm-cloud physics parameterizations in the singe-column configurations of NCAR Community Atmospheric Model version 6 and 5 (SCAM6 and SCAM5, respectively) are evaluated using ground-based and airborne observations from the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) field campaign near the Azores islands during 2017–2018. The 8-month single-column model (SCM) simulations show that both SCAM6 and SCAM5 can generally reproduce marine boundary layer cloud structure, major macrophysical properties, and their transition. The improvement in warm-cloud properties from the Community Atmospheric Model 5 and 6 (CAM5 to CAM6) physics can be found through comparison with the observations. Meanwhile, both physical schemes underestimate cloud liquid water content, cloud droplet size, and rain liquid water content but overestimate surface rainfall. Modeled cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations are comparable with aircraft-observed ones in the summer but are overestimated by a factor of 2 in winter, largely due to the biases in the long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols like sulfate. We also test the newly recalibrated autoconversion and accretion parameterizations that account for vertical variations in droplet size. Compared to the observations, more significant improvement is found in SCAM5 than in SCAM6. This result is likely explained by the introduction of subgrid variations in cloud properties in CAM6 cloud microphysics, which further suppresses the scheme's sensitivity to individual warm-rain microphysical parameters. The predicted cloud susceptibilities to CCN perturbations in CAM6 are within a reasonable range, indicating significant progress since CAM5 which produces an aerosol indirect effect that is too strong. The present study emphasizes the importance of understanding biases in cloud physics parameterizations by combining SCM with in situ observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Differential Gene Expression in A Cross-Feeding Two-Species Model Microbial Community Under Simulated Microgravity and Deep-Space Radiation

A long-term goal of space biology is to understand interspecies microbial interactions in space. Presently, little is known about the combined effect of microgravity and ionizing radiation on bacterial community response when species are interdependent through exchange of metabolites in fluid medium (cross-feeding). Microgravity is expected to slow interspecies mass transfer and growth in cross-feeding communities in the low-shear, diffusion-limited environment, while ionizing radiation may influence stress response to direct (DNA damage) and indirect damage (ROS). Using a well-understood, two-species (Escherichia coli and Salmonella enterica) microbial community engineered to be a model for studying cross-feeding, we simulated galactic cosmic rays (GCRsim) and microgravity to test the hypothesis: exposure to ionizing radiation causes cell damage or stress, altering transcriptomic community responses in metabolically interdependent cells, which is exacerbated by microgravity. We expect to see differential gene expression between cross-feeding and non-cross-feeding communities. We measured GCRsim effects on growth and gene expression in well-mixed versus simulated-microgravity conditions and in cross-feeding and non-cross-feeding medium. Microbial cultures were inoculated into liquid medium in rotating wall vessels (RWV) with different rotation rates: 5 RPM (simulated microgravity) and 50 RPM (well-mixed). The E. coli-S. enterica consortium, under simulated microgravity, were exposed to 500 mGy of Simplified 5-ion Galactic Cosmic Ray Simulation for 2 hours at Brookhaven National Lab. We harvested samples 40 minutes after irradiation for extraction and sequencing (NASA GeneLab). Here we present the differential gene expression analysis results, which reveal altered transcriptomic community responses, even where growth rate differences are not observed. Gene expression of these actively metabolizing microbial communities in GCRsim may illuminate molecular mechanisms of microbial interactions in space. Understanding how microbial community gene expression, metabolism, and other cellular processes are influenced by spaceflight stressors can inform the use of microbes in human life support for low Earth orbit missions and beyond.

microgravity↗

Validation of the Community Land Model Version 5 over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) using in-situ and remote sensing datasets

The Community Land Model (CLM) is an effective tool to simulate the biophysical and biogeochemical processes and their interactions with the atmosphere. Although CLM Version 5 (CLM5) constitutes various updates in these processes, its performance in simulating energy, water and carbon cycles over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) at scales which land surface changes and hydrometeorological and hydroclimatological applications are more locally relevant is yet to be assessed. In this study, we conducted three simulations at 0.125? during 1979-2018 over the CONUS using different configurations of CLM, namely CLM5-biogeochemistry (CLM5BGC), CLM4.5BGC, and CLM5-satellite phenology (CLM5SP). We validated and compared their simulations against multiple remote-sensed and in-situ datasets. Overall, the parametric and structural updates (e.g., carbon cost for nitrogen uptake, variable soil thickness, dry surface layer) in CLM5 improve its ability in capturing terrestrial biogeochemical dynamics. The low evapotranspiration in CLM5BGC is associated with biases in simulating vegetation phenological characteristics rather than soil water limitations. The mismatch between CLM5BGC-simulated peak leaf area index and reference data can be attributed to CLM5BGC's inability in simulating phenology of trees and grasses. The differences between CLM-simulated irrigation and reference estimates can be attributed to differences between processes represented in models and in reality, and uncertainties in input and validation datasets. Evaluation against observations at small catchments suggest that hydrologic parameters needed to be calibrated to improve simulations of runoff, especially subsurface runoff. Additional efforts are needed to incorporate spatially-distributed plant phenology and physiology parameters and regional-specific agricultural management practices (e.g., planting, harvest).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bayesian Statistical Models for Community Annoyance Survey Data

This paper demonstrates the use of two Bayesian statistical models to analyze single-event sonic boom exposure and human annoyance data from community response surveys. Each model is fit to data from a NASA pilot study.Unlike many community noise surveys, this study used a panel sample to collect multiple observations per participant instead of a single observation. Thus, a multilevel (also known as hierarchical or mixed-effects) model is used to account for the within-subject correlation in the panel sample data. This paper describes a multilevel logistic regression model and a multilevel ordinal regression model. The paper also proposes a method for calculating a summary dose-response curve from the multilevel models that represents the population. The two models’ summary dose-response curves are visually similar. However, their estimates differ when calculating the noise dose at a fixed percent highly annoyed.

Musical instruments↗

One‐at‐a‐Time Parameter Perturbation Ensemble of the Community Land Model, Version 5.1

Comprehensive land models are subject to significant parametric uncertainty, which can be hard to quantify due to the large number of parameters and high model computational costs. We constructed a large parameter perturbation ensemble (PPE) for the Community Land Model version 5.1 with biogeochemistry configuration (CLM5.1-BGC). We performed more than 2,000 simulations perturbing 211 parameters across six forcing scenarios. This provides an expansive data set, which can be used to identify the most influential parameters on a wide range of output variables globally, by biome, or by plant functional type. We found that parameter effects can exceed scenario effects and that a small number of parameters explains a large fraction of variance across our ensemble. The most important parameters can differ regionally and also based on the forcing scenario. The software infrastructure developed for this experiment has greatly reduced the human and computer time needed for CLM PPEs, which can facilitate routine investigation of parameter sensitivity and uncertainty, as well as automated calibration.

Kennedy, Daniel [NSF National Center for Atmospher↗