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At least 73 records · Page 4

A MULTI-SURVEY APPROACH TO WHITE DWARF DISCOVERY

By selecting astrometric and photometric data from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), the Lepine and Shara Proper Motion North Catalog (LSPM-North), the Two Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS), and the USNO-B1.0 catalog, we use a succession of methods to isolate white dwarf (WD) candidates for follow-up spectroscopy. Our methods include reduced proper motion diagram cuts, color cuts, and atmospheric model adherence. We present spectroscopy of 26 WDs obtained from the CTIO 4 m and APO 3.5 m telescopes. Additionally, we confirm 28 WDs with spectra available in the SDSS DR7 database but unpublished elsewhere, presenting a total of 54 WDs. We label one of these as a recovered WD while the remaining 53 are new discoveries. We determine physical parameters and estimate distances based on atmospheric model analyses. Three new WDs are modeled to lie within 25 pc. Two additional WDs are confirmed to be metal-polluted (DAZ). Follow-up time series photometry confirms another object to be a pulsating ZZ Ceti WD.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Utah FORGE Phase Native State FALCON Model Files

The submission includes FALCON input file and mesh for the an initial pressure-temperature simulation, and a second set for pressure-temperature-displacement simulation. All simulations are steady state. Data and input for the FORGE Phase 2 native state model were compiled from historic and FORGE specific characterization efforts. The simulations look to find the in-situ pressure, temperature, and stress distributions in the vicinity of the Utah FORGE site. The purpose of the native state model was to establish a baseline for all other modeling analyses—so that the whole modeling team can start from a consistent set of conditions which makes for comparison of results more straightforward and meaningful. Requires the FALCON simulator which can be found in the "FALCON Simulator" link in the submission. Instructions for compiling and running FALCON can be found on the FORGE branch of the FALCON git repository in the README.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Air Quality Modeling Using the NASA GEOS-5 Multispecies Data Assimilation System

The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) data assimilation system (DAS) has been expanded to include chemically reactive tropospheric trace gases including ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and carbon monoxide (CO). This system combines model analyses from the GEOS-5 model with detailed atmospheric chemistry and observations from MLS (O3), OMI (O3 and NO2), and MOPITT (CO). We show results from a variety of assimilation test experiments, highlighting the improvements in the representation of model species concentrations by up to 50% compared to an assimilation-free control experiment. Taking into account the rapid chemical cycling of NO2 when applying the assimilation increments greatly improves assimilation skills for NO2 and provides large benefits for model concentrations near the surface. Analysis of the geospatial distribution of the assimilation increments suggest that the free-running model overestimates biomass burning emissions but underestimates lightning NOx emissions by 5-20%. We discuss the capability of the chemical data assimilation system to improve atmospheric composition forecasts through improved initial value and boundary condition inputs, particularly during air pollution events. We find that the current assimilation system meaningfully improves short-term forecasts (1-3 day). For longer-term forecasts more emphasis on updating the emissions instead of initial concentration fields is needed.

Keller, Christoph A.↗

Space Shuttle filament wound case compressive strength study. II - Analysis

In order to explain the results of the testing conducted in Part I and relate the subscale test specimen performance to case performance during prelaunch loading, a comprehensive analysis program was conducted. Finite element models of both full-scale case and subscale test coupons were made. Validated axisymmetric models were used for the case analyses. Modeling of coupons was accomplished using a generalized plane strain finite element model in most cases, although some three-dimensional finite element modeling was used to investigate the importance of three-dimensional effects on the coupon performance. The large number of plies and complexity of the test coupons used limited the finite element grids to a through-the-thickness discretization of one element per ply. Delaminations observed in the helical ply dropoff region were modeled using frictionless sliders. Comparisons of predicted strains and displacements were made with the test data from both cases and coupons to validate the finite element models. Based on observations of the test results and finite element predictions, a failure criterion for both coupons and cases was postulated and then validated by comparing performance predictions to test results. Finally, the validated failure criterion was used to predict the performance of the first two flight cases under prelaunch loads.

Messick, M. J.↗

Integration of performance assessments and 3116 basis documents within the Savannah River Site liquid waste facilities - 15375

The end of the Cold War has left a legacy of over 136 million liters (36 million gallons) of radioactive waste in the aging waste tanks at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS). A robust program is in place to remove waste from these tanks, treat the waste to separate it into a relatively small volume of high-level waste and a large volume of low-level waste, and to actively dispose of the low-level waste on-site. This process allows the US Department of Energy (DOE) to move forward with closure of the cleaned waste tanks and associated ancillary structures. To support performance-based, risk decision making for closure and disposal activities, three individual performance assessments (PAs) have been developed - salt-stone Disposal Facility, F-Tank Farm and H-Tank Farm. In addition, three Waste Determinations (WDs) have been made by the Secretary of Energy, in consultation with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), under the authority of Section 3116 of the Ronald W. Reagan National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2005 (NDAA Section 3116). To support these waste determination decisions, individual '3116 Basis Documents' were developed that describe the assumptions and conditions under which the criteria outlined in NDAA Section 3116 are met. The development of each of the PAs represented a long and arduous effort that involved the development of both deterministic and probabilistic conceptual models of the facilities, the development of assumptions and associated ranges, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, model data collection and analyses, writing of the actual performance assessment, internal and external peer reviews, and ultimately approval by DOE. Similarly, the development of the 3116 Basis Documents represents similar time and financial commitments. At the end of these efforts, after years of preparation and millions of dollars in investment, we have thousands of pages of highly technical text, tables of data and hundreds of graphs and charts all contained in a series of thick binders that fit neatly on the shelf of a bookcase. We were done - right? Actually, we were just getting started. Performance Assessments and 3116 Basis Documents are living documents that shape day-to-day and long-term decision making in the operation of a low-level waste disposal facility (e.g., salt-stone Disposal Facility) or in area closure activities (e.g., F-Tank Farm or H-Tank Farm). Although these documents do not contain specifically described requirements per se, they do utilize specific assumptions that, if changed significantly, could result in no longer being able to demonstrate that there is reasonable assurance that the required performance objectives or the criteria from NDAA Section 3116 can be met. Savannah River Remediation LLC (SRR), the contractor responsible for Liquid Waste operations at SRS, has not only developed the PAs and 3116 Basis Documents to support this work and shepherded these documents through the DOE approval process, but has also developed the processes and procedures to ensure the successful implementation and integration of these documents into day-to-day decision making within the associated facilities. This paper describes these processes, including the Un-reviewed Waste Management Question process and the PA Maintenance process, and provides specific examples of their successful implementation. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Diagnosing AIRS Sampling with CloudSat Cloud Classes

AIRS yield and sampling vary with cloud state. Careful utilization of collocated multiple satellite sensors is necessary. Profile differences between AIRS and ECMWF model analyses indicate that AIRS has high sampling and excellent accuracy for certain meteorological conditions. Cloud-dependent sampling biases may have large impact on AIRS L2 and L3 data in climate research. MBL clouds / lower tropospheric stability relationship is one example. AIRS and CloudSat reveal a reasonable climatology in the MBL cloud regime despite limited sampling in stratocumulus. Thermodynamic parameters such as EIS derived from AIRS data map these cloud conditions successfully. We are working on characterizing AIRS scenes with mixed cloud types.

model analyses↗

Model-assisted decision analyses related to a chromium plume at Los Alamos national Laboratory - 15449

?he chromium plume at Los Alamos National Laboratory is a complex contaminant-remediation site with spatial extent of several square kilometers. It is located in a regional aquifer near water-supply wells and other points of compliance. The plume originated on the ground surface and the contaminant migrated along complex pathways through a thick vadose zone (∼300 m) that includes intermediate lateral zones of saturation and vertical preferential flow paths. Here we discuss the development of a modeling computational framework for the site. The framework work incorporates data assimilation and model-results analysis tools including decision support techniques. The decision tools are demonstrated using synthetic problems consistent with the interpretation of existing site data and site modeling results. The analyses aim at robust and efficient environmental management of the plume and explore a series of alternative remedial options. The remedial options include natural attenuation (NA), enhanced attenuation (EA), contaminant source removal (in the vadose zone), contaminant extraction (in the regional aquifer at the plume centroid and peripheries), biogeochemical remediation (injection of fluids stimulating growth of organisms in the aquifer impacting chromium concentrations), as wells as hydraulic controls on the groundwater flow and transport in the vadose zone and the regional aquifer. The applied model analyses and decision-support algorithms are implemented in code MADS (Model Analyses for Decision Support; http://mads.lanl.gov). MADS is an open-source framework for model-based decision support employing system and physics simulation models. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

4-D Cloud Water Content Fields Derived from Operational Satellite Data

In order to improve operational safety and efficiency, the transportation industry, including aviation, has an urgent need for accurate diagnoses and predictions of clouds and associated weather conditions. Adverse weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System. The Federal Aviation Administration has determined that as much as two thirds of weather-related delays are potentially avoidable with better weather information and roughly 20% of all aviation accidents are weather related. Thus, it is recognized that an important factor in meeting the goals of the Next Generation Transportation System (NexGen) vision is the improved integration of weather information. The concept of a 4-D weather cube is being developed to address that need by integrating observed and forecasted weather information into a shared 4-D database, providing an integrated and nationally consistent weather picture for a variety of users and to support operational decision support systems. Weather analyses and forecasts derived using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are a critical tool that forecasters rely on for guidance and also an important element in current and future decision support systems. For example, the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) and the recently implemented Rapid Refresh (RR) Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) models provide high frequency forecasts and are key elements of the FAA Aviation Weather Research Program. Because clouds play a crucial role in the dynamics and thermodynamics of the atmosphere, they must be adequately accounted for in NWP models. The RUC, for example, cycles at full resolution five cloud microphysical species (cloud water, cloud ice, rain, snow, and graupel) and has the capability of updating these fields from observations. In order to improve the models initial state and subsequent forecasts, cloud top altitude (or temperature, T(sub c)) derived from operational satellite data, surface observations of cloud base altitude, radar reflectivity, and lightning data are used to help build and remove clouds in the models assimilation system. Despite this advance and the many recent advances made in our understanding of cloud physical processes and radiative effects, many problems remain in adequately representing clouds in models. While the assimilation of cloud top information derived from operational satellite data has merit, other information is available that has not yet been exploited. For example, the vertically integrated cloud water content (CWC) or cloud water path (CWP) and cloud geometric thickness (delta Z) are standard products being derived routinely from operational satellite data. These and other cloud products have been validated under a variety of conditions. Since the uncertainties have generally been found to be less than those found in model analyses and forecasts, the satellite products should be suitable for data assimilation, provided an appropriate strategy can be developed that links the satellite-derived cloud parameters with cloud parameters specified in the model. In this paper, we briefly outline such a strategy and describe a methodology to retrieve cloud water content profiles from operational satellite data. Initial results and future plans are presented. It is expected that the direct assimilation of this new product will provide the most accurate depiction of the vertical distribution of cloud water ever produced at the high spatial and temporal resolution needed for short term weather analyses and forecasts.

Smith, William L., Jr.↗

LDEF geometry/mass model for radiation analyses

A 3-D geometry/mass model of Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) was generated to aid in the interpretation of ionizing radiation experiments relative to the influence of varying shielding distributions around the dosimetry, and to allow more definitive calculations and comparisons with the measured data. This model takes into account the major individual structural members of the LDEF spacecraft, the mass in each experiment tray, and, for selected trays containing ionizing radiation dosimetry, major parts within the tray are modeled. The geometry/mass model, together with a ray tracing algorithms, was programmed for use both as a stand alone code in determining 3-D shielding distributions at dosimetry locations, and as a geometry module that can be interfaced with radiation transport codes.

Colborn, B. L.↗

Pressure Transient Analyses and Poroelastic Modeling of Hydraulic Fracture Dilation for Multiple Injections at the Devine Fracture Pilot Site

Our team has conducted electromagnetic (EM) surveys for the past six years to monitor hydraulic-fracture behavior at the Devine Fracture Pilot Site (DFPS). The sub-horizontal orientation of a shallow hydraulic fracture at the DFPS provides uniform access to the fracture area for interrogation and data collection. Ahmadian et al. (2023) suggested a possible correlation between spatiotemporal changes in the flow rate, bottomhole pressure (BHP), and the observed surface recorded electric field at the DFPS. In this paper, we present the development of poroelastic forward models and pressure transient analyses (PTAs) to support the development of a multiphysics inverse model for these EM surveys. First, we conducted PTAs of the shut-in periods after six injections out of 10 to determine the fracture closure pressure (FCP) or the overburden pressure used in a poroelastic fracture reopening model. Second, we developed a finite-element poroelastic model throughout five injection cycles to include the effect of the cumulative injected volumes due to the previous injections on current fracture dilation in the presence of highly permeable unpropped and propped zones adjacent to the cohesive layer that models fracture reopening. Fracture reopening in this poroelastic model is based on a calibrated traction-separation response using the bottomhole pressure collected in two injection campaigns in 2020 and 2022. We used the outcomes of a previous simulation study of the primary hydraulic-fracturing stimulation to define the dimension of an unpropped fracture zone ahead of the propped fracture area. The PTAs led to FCPs consistent with those obtained using the injection data collected at the DFPS in 2020. Further, these analyses showed that at later injections, the fracture closure occurred at a later time with respect to the shut-in time, inferring the effect of cumulative injected volumes in previous injections. The simulation results show that considering the propped and unpropped fracture zones improves our poroelastic model in predicting the injection-well BHP. The numerical simulation results demonstrate a significant excess pore pressure near the fracture because of the preceding formation loadings by the previous injections. The obtained fracture dilation area and fluid pressure distribution provide a basis to improve the development of a multiphysics inverse model. Furthermore, in an iteratively coupled scheme, this pressure distribution can be introduced into EM models to render a holistic view of the causative mechanisms for the surface signal anomalies.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Air–Sea Turbulent Heat Fluxes in Climate Models and Observational Analyses: What Drives Their Variability?

A traditional view is that the ocean outside of the tropics responds passively to atmosphere forcing, which implies that air–sea heat fluxes are mainly driven by atmosphere variability. This paper tests this viewpoint using state-of-the-art air–sea turbulent heat flux observational analyses and a climate model run at different resolutions. It is found herein that in midlatitude ocean frontal zones the variability of air–sea heat fluxes is not predominantly driven by the atmosphere variations but instead is forced by sea surface temperature (SST) variations arising from intrinsic oceanic variability. Meanwhile in most of the tropics and subtropics wind is the dominant driver of heat flux variability, and atmosphere humidity is mainly important in higher latitudes. The predominance of ocean forcing of heat fluxes found in frontal regions occurs on scales of around 700 km or less. Spatially smoothing the data to larger scales results in the traditional atmosphere-driving case, while filtering to retain only small scales of 5° or less leads to ocean forcing of heat fluxes over most of the globe. All observational analyses examined (1° OAFlux; 0.25° J-OFURO3; 0.25° SeaFlux) show this general behavior. A standard resolution (1°) climate model fails to reproduce the midlatitude, small-scale ocean forcing of heat flux: refining the ocean grid to resolve eddies (0.1°) gives a more realistic representation of ocean forcing but the variability of both SST and of heat flux is too high compared to observational analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pajarito models

Pajarito models are developed to perform various types of model analyses related to the LANL-site groundwater contamination problems. Pajarito models include several models representing the LANL Chromium (Cr) and RDX sites. Pajarito models also include a model that is at the scale of the Pajarito Plateau. The models are designed to perform model prediction of groundwater flow and contaminant transport. The models are bundled in repositories. The model repositories include scripts, input control files, and drivers. A detailed description of the various files included in the repositories is provided in electronic form within the repositories.

Vesselinov, Velimir↗

Surface temperature comparison of the Arctic winter MOSAiC observations, ERA5 reanalysis, and MODIS satellite retrieval

Atmospheric model systems, such as those used for weather forecast and reanalysis production, often have significant and systematic errors in their representation of the Arctic surface energy budget and its components. The newly available observation data of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition (2019/2020) enable a range of model analyses and validation in order to advance our understanding of potential model deficiencies. In the present study, we analyze deficiencies in the surface radiative energy budget over Arctic sea ice in the ERA5 global atmospheric reanalysis by comparing against the winter MOSAiC campaign data, as well as, a pan-Arctic level-2 MODIS ice surface temperature remote sensing product. We find that ERA5 can simulate the timing of radiatively clear periods, though it is not able to distinguish the two observed radiative Arctic winter states, radiatively clear and opaquely cloudy, in the distribution of the net surface radiative budget. The ERA5 surface temperature over Arctic sea ice has a conditional error with a positive bias in radiatively clear conditions and a negative bias in opaquely cloudy conditions. The mean surface temperature error is 4°C for radiatively clear situations at MOSAiC and up to 15°C in some parts of the Arctic. The spatial variability of the surface temperature, given by 4 observation sites at MOSAiC, is not captured by ERA5 due to its spatial resolution but represented in the level-2 satellite product. The sensitivity analysis of possible error sources, using satellite products of snow depth and sea ice thickness, shows that the positive surface temperature errors during radiatively clear events are, to a large extent, caused by insufficient sea ice thickness and snow depth representation in the reanalysis system. A positive bias characterizes regions with ice thickness greater than 1.5 m, while the negative bias for thinner ice is partly compensated by the effect of snow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Active Management of Integrated Geothermal-CO2 Storage Reservoirs in Sedimentary Formations

Active Management of Integrated Geothermal–CO2 Storage Reservoirs in Sedimentary Formations: An Approach to Improve Energy Recovery and Mitigate Risk : FY1 Final Report The purpose of phase 1 is to determine the feasibility of integrating geologic CO2 storage (GCS) with geothermal energy production. Phase 1 includes reservoir analyses to determine injector/producer well schemes that balance the generation of economically useful flow rates at the producers with the need to manage reservoir overpressure to reduce the risks associated with overpressure, such as induced seismicity and CO2 leakage to overlying aquifers. This submittal contains input and output files of the reservoir model analyses. A reservoir-model "index-html" file was sent in a previous submittal to organize the reservoir-model input and output files according to sections of the FY1 Final Report to which they pertain. The recipient should save the file: Reservoir-models-inputs-outputs-index.html in the same directory that the files: Section2.1.*.tar.gz files are saved in.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Integrated Geothermal-CO2 Storage Reservoirs: FY1 Final Report

The purpose of phase 1 is to determine the feasibility of integrating geologic CO2 storage (GCS) with geothermal energy production. Phase 1 includes reservoir analyses to determine injector/producer well schemes that balance the generation of economically useful flow rates at the producers with the need to manage reservoir overpressure to reduce the risks associated with overpressure, such as induced seismicity and CO2 leakage to overlying aquifers. This submittal contains input and output files of the reservoir model analyses. A reservoir-model "index-html" file was sent in a previous submittal to organize the reservoir-model input and output files according to sections of the FY1 Final Report to which they pertain. The recipient should save the file: Reservoir-models-inputs-outputs-index.html in the same directory that the files: Section2.1.*.tar.gz files are saved in.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Active Management of Integrated Geothermal-CO2 Storage Reservoirs in Sedimentary Formations

Active Management of Integrated Geothermal–CO2 Storage Reservoirs in Sedimentary Formations: An Approach to Improve Energy Recovery and Mitigate Risk : FY1 Final Report The purpose of phase 1 is to determine the feasibility of integrating geologic CO2 storage (GCS) with geothermal energy production. Phase 1 includes reservoir analyses to determine injector/producer well schemes that balance the generation of economically useful flow rates at the producers with the need to manage reservoir overpressure to reduce the risks associated with overpressure, such as induced seismicity and CO2 leakage to overlying aquifers. This submittal contains input and output files of the reservoir model analyses. A reservoir-model "index-html" file was sent in a previous submittal to organize the reservoir-model input and output files according to sections of the FY1 Final Report to which they pertain. The recipient should save the file: Reservoir-models-inputs-outputs-index.html in the same directory that the files: Section2.1.*.tar.gz files are saved in.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Modeling Solar Lyman Alpha Irradiance

Solar Lyman alpha irradiance is estimated from various solar indices using linear regression analyses. Models developed with multiple linear regression analysis, including daily values and 81-day running means of solar indices, predict reasonably well both the short- and long-term variations observed in Lyman alpha. It is shown that the full disk equivalent width of the He line at 1083 nm offers the best proxy for Lyman alpha, and that the total irradiance corrected for sunspot effect also has a high correlation with Lyman alpha.

Pap, J.↗