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NASA NTRS1984

Wave CISK and mesoscale convective systems

An examination is conducted of the basic assumptions of conventional wave-CISK theory, against observational data on mesoscale-organized convective systems. In response to the inadequacy of the quasi-equilibrium assumption, a nonequilibrium model of clouds actively responding to mesoscale low level mass fluxes in a preexisting and conditionally unstable atmosphere is formulated. The structures obtained for the propagating and growing waves are noted to be comparable with observations of midlatitude mesoscale convective systems. An examination is made of the energetics of this modified wave-CISK model, in order to deepen understanding of its instability and scale selection.

Xu, Q.↗

NASA NTRS1993

The radiative budgets of a tropical mesoscale convective system during the EMEX-STEP-AMEX experiment. I - Observations. II - Model results

The spatial radiation heating budget associated with tropical mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) is studied and the change of this heating/budget throughout the life cycle of such a cloud system is investigated. The movements of an EMEX 9 cloud cluster are described. The vertical structure of the cluster contains two types of imbedded convection: an upright vertical structure and a pronounced rearward slope with vertical extent of 14.5 km or more and a horizontal scale of about 40 km. The cloud base and cloud top altitude in the stratiform region are of the order of 4.8 km and 15-16 km, respectively. The upward and downward solar flux profiles suggest very little solar heating in these regions. A tropical MCS that occurred during the EMEX Mission 9 is simulated, and the simulation is shown to broadly agree with the observations. The simulation results, which are reported in detail, show how tropical mesoscale cloud systems provide an effective radiative heat source for the tropical atmosphere.

Wong, Takmeng↗

DOE OSTI2020

A high-resolution database of mesoscale convective systems and isolated deep convection in the United States for 2004 – 2017

The database provides high-resolution (4-km, hourly) information of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and isolated deep convection events (IDC) east of the Rocky Mountains over the contiguous United States from 2004 – 2017. The database contains various characteristics of MCSs and IDC, such as their lifecycle evolutions, lifetimes, spatial coverages, echo-top heights, precipitation features, convective and stratiform separation, convective core features, propagation speed, etc.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A high-resolution database of mesoscale convective systems and isolated deep convection in the United States for 2004 – 2017

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Grid Spacing Sensitivities of Simulated Mid-Latitude and Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Convective Gray Zone

The main objective of this study is to observationally constrain processes in tropical and midlatitude mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), and to use these constraints for model evaluation. To accomplish this, we leverage MCS observations collected at the U.S. DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma and ARM's mobile GoAmazon2014/15 site in Manaus, Brazil (MAO). We simulate 13 and 11 of these observed MCSs at the SGP and MAO site, respectively, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at 12-, 4-, 2-, and 1-km horizontal grid spacing. Observations from radiosondes, surface meteorology, and radar wind profilers are used to characterize MCS properties, such as MCS timing and location, cold pools, and convective drafts, and evaluate these simulations. SGP cases are found in better agreement with observations than MAO cases, and when simulated at 2 km, outperform simulations at 1 km regarding the timing of MCS overpass and the accuracy of surface variable trends. MAO simulations suggest a consistent improvement in model accuracy with increasing model resolution in depicting the downdraft structure, the timing of MCSs, and the surface variables changes, except for the latter two metrics at 2 km. Deficiencies are still evident at km-scales, suggesting the need for higher resolution to simulate tropical MCSs. Overall, location-dependent improvements in MCS representation are obtained with the increasing model resolution, prompting the evaluation of sub-km scale simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Moisture Recycling through Pumping by Mesoscale Convective Systems

Abstract Moisture recycling, the contribution of local evapotranspiration (ET) to precipitation, has been studied using bulk models assuming a well-mixed atmosphere. The latter is inconsistent with a climatologically stratified atmosphere that slants across latitudes. Reconciling the two views requires an understanding of overturning associated with different weather systems. In this study, we aim to better understand moisture recycling associated with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Using a convection-permitting WRF simulation equipped with water vapor tracers (WRF-WVT), we tag moisture from terrestrial ET in the U.S. Southern Great Plains during May 2015, when more than 20 MCS events occurred and produced significant precipitation and flooding. Water budget analysis reveals that approximately 76% of terrestrial ET is advected away from the region while the remaining 24% of terrestrial ET is “pumped” upward within the region, accounting for 12% of precipitation. Moisture recycling peaks during early night hours (1800–2400 LT) due to the mixing of the daytime accumulated ET by active convection. By focusing on five “diurnally driven” MCSs with less large-scale circulation influence than other MCSs during the same period, we find an upright pumping of terrestrial ET at the MCS initiation and development stages, which diverges into two branches during the MCS mature and decaying stages. One branch in the upper level advects the ET-sourced moisture downstream, while the other branch in the mid-to-upper level contributes to the trailing precipitation upstream. Overall, our analysis depicts a pumping mechanism associated with MCSs that mixes local ET vertically, highlighting its specific contributions to enhancing convective precipitation processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing Wet Season Precipitation in the Central Amazon Using a Mesoscale Convective System Tracking Algorithm

To comprehensively characterize convective precipitation in the central Amazon region, we utilize the Python FLEXible object TRacKeR (PyFLEXTRKR) to track mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) observed through satellite measurements and simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a convection-permitting resolution. This study spans a 2-month period during the wet seasons of 2014 and 2015. We observe a strong correlation between the MCS track density and accumulated precipitation in the Amazon basin. Key factors contributing to precipitation, such as MCS properties (number, size, rainfall intensity, and movement), are thoroughly examined. Our analysis reveals that while the overall model produces fewer MCSs with smaller mean sizes compared to observations, it tends to overpredict total precipitation due to excessive rainfall intensity for heavy rainfall events (≥10 mm hr –1 ). These biases in simulated MCS properties could vary with the constraints on the convective background environment. Moreover, while the wet bias from heavy (convective) rainfall outweighs the dry bias in light (stratiform) rainfall, the latter can be crucial, particularly when MCS cloud cover is significantly underestimated. A case study for 1 April 2014 highlights the influence of environmental conditions on the MCS lifecycle and identifies an unrealistic model representation in both stratiform and convective precipitation features.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A High‐Resolution Tropical Mesoscale Convective System Reanalysis (TMeCSR)

Abstract Modern global reanalysis products have greatly accelerated meteorological research in synoptic‐to‐planetary‐scale phenomena. However, their use in studying tropical mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and their regional‐to‐global impact has mostly been limited to supplying initial and boundary conditions for MCS‐resolving simulations and providing information about the large‐scale environments of MCSs. These limitations are due to difficulties in resolving tropical MCS dynamics in the relatively low‐resolution global models and that tropical MCSs often occur over poorly observed regions. In this work, a Tropical MCS‐resolving Reanalysis product (TMeCSR) was created over a region with frequent tropical MCSs. This region spans the tropical Indian Ocean, tropical continental Asia, Maritime Continent, and Western Pacific. TMeCSR is produced by assimilating all‐sky infrared radiances from geostationary satellites and other conventional observations into an MCS‐resolving regional model using the Ensemble Kalman Filter. The resulting observation‐constrained high‐resolution (9‐km grid spacing) data set is available hourly during the boreal summer (June‐August) of 2017, during which widespread severe flooding occurred. Comparisons of TMeCSR and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) against independent satellite retrievals indicate that TMeCSR's cloud and multiscale rain fields are better than those of ERA5. Furthermore, TMeCSR better captured the diurnal variability of rainfall and the statistical characteristics of MCSs. Forecasts initialized from TMeCSR also have more accurate rain and clouds than those initialized from ERA5. The TMeCSR and ERA5 forecasts have similar performances with respect to sounding and surface observations. These results indicate that TMeCSR is a promising MCS‐resolving data set for tropical MCS studies.

Chan, Man‐Yau↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climatology of Linear Mesoscale Convective System Morphology in the United States based on Random Forests Method

This study uses machine learning methods, specifically the random forest (RF), on a radar-based mesoscale convective system (MCS) tracking dataset to classify the five types of linear MCS morphology in the contiguous United States during the period 2004-2016. The algorithm is trained using radar- and satellite-derived spatial and morphological parameters, and reanalysis environmental information from 5-26yr manually identified nonlinear and five linear MCS modes. The algorithm is then used to automate the classification of linear MCSs over 8 years with high accuracy, providing a systematic, long-term climatology of linear MCSs. Results reveal that nearly 40% of MCSs are classified as linear MCSs, in which half of the linear events belong to the type of system having a leading convective line. The occurrence of linear MCSs shows large annual and seasonal variations. On average, 113 linear MCSs occur annually during the warm season (through March to October), with most of these events clustered from May through August in the central eastern Great Plains. MCS characteristics, including duration, propagation speed, orientation, and system cloud size, have large variability among the different linear modes. The systems having a trailing convective line and the systems having a back-building area of convection typically move more slowly and have higher precipitation rate, and thus have higher potential in producing extreme rainfall and flash flooding. Analysis of the environmental conditions associated with linear MCSs show that the storm-relative flow is of most importance in determining the organization mode of linear MCSs.

Cui, Wenjun↗

NASA NTRS1991

Environment and evolution of a cold-frontal mesoscale convective system

Data obtained from the June 26-27, 1985 period of the Kansas-Oklahoma PRE-STORM field phase are employed to describe the evolution of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) responsible for a heavy rainfall event over a large portion of Oklahoma and Kansas. In the case examined, the eastward advancement of deep convection was aided by the formation of a series of nearly parallel rainbands before the main precipitation area. These rainbands, which developed in a field of boundary layer cloud streets, without the assistance of gust-front convergence, redefined the leading edge of the MCS and became the locus of the most intense convection in the precipitation system.

Trier, Stanley B.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Observed structural variability of deep moist convection within a mesoscale convective system

Some radar observations of the convective cloud structure within and around a developing mesoscale convective system (MCS), which attained an eventual horizontal dimension of approximately 100 by 200 km, are reported. Similarities in cloud structure within and outside the MCS include a downshear tilt of the cloud precipitation core and generation of new cells toward the direction of cloud motion and parallel to the major axis of the cloud line. The systematic difference in the longevity and intensity of the clouds is examined.

Knupp, Kevin R.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Responses of summer mesoscale convective systems to irrigation over the North China Plain based on convection-permitting model simulations

Extensive irrigation activities in the North China Plain (NCP) significantly influence regional weather and climate. However, previous studies focusing on the NCP were primarily based on coarse-resolution models, which are unable to explicitly resolve convection systems, causing large uncertainty in precipitation simulations. In this study, a convection-permitting model coupled with a dynamic irrigation scheme is utilized to investigate the impacts of irrigation on summertime mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over the NCP. Sensitivity experiments with irrigation off and on are conducted for 5 summers and an MCS identification and tracking algorithm is applied to both satellite observations and model simulations. We find that incorporating irrigation in the model increases MCS precipitation, which agrees more with observations. The probability distributions of MCS lifetime, area, propagation speed, and intensity are all better simulated with irrigation. Irrigation increases the occurrence frequency of MCSs throughout the entire day. The nighttime increase is partly because of more frequent local initiation of MCS developed from isolated deep convection, while the daytime increase is mainly attributed to the changes in MCSs initiating elsewhere and then propagating to the NCP. On average, irrigation induces additional moisture that is more thermodynamically favorable for precipitation, but this effect is partially offset by the weakened ascending air motion primarily caused by irrigation surface cooling. Compared to weak MCS precipitation events, strong MCS precipitation events experience greater enhancement in precipitation intensity when including irrigation because the offset effect from the change in large-scale ascending air motion is insignificant. In addition, irrigation makes the variation of MCS precipitation intensity more correlated with the variation in ascending motion but less correlated with that in atmospheric moisture. Our results suggest the pronounced impacts of irrigation on MCSs over the NCP which should be included in numerical models to improve regional precipitation simulation and prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Case Studies of Forest Windthrows and Mesoscale Convective Systems in Amazonia

Abstract This study identifies 38 cases of windthrows in the Amazonia to explore the relationship between windthrows and the characteristics (storm passing time, cloud top temperature, and maximum precipitation) of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that produced them. Most of windthrow cases in this study occurred in August and September. The storm passing time is positively correlated with the size of windthrows. MCSs with colder cloud top temperature (with a mean at 206 K)—indicating deeper convection—resulted in large windthrows, while those with warm cloud top (with a mean above 230 K) resulted in relatively small windthrows except for windthrows in the western Amazonia. No significant relationship is found between maximum precipitation intensity and the area of windthrows.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Global High‐Resolution Mesoscale Convective System Database Using Satellite‐Derived Cloud Tops, Surface Precipitation, and Tracking

Abstract A new methodology is developed to construct a global (60°S–60°N) long‐term (2000–2019) high‐resolution (∼10‐km h) mesoscale convective system (MCS) database by tracking MCS jointly using geostationary satellite infrared brightness temperature ( T b ) and precipitation feature (PF) characteristics from the Integrated Multi‐satellitE Retrievals for GPM precipitation data sets. Independent validation shows that the satellite‐based MCS data set is able to reproduce important MCS statistics derived from ground‐based radar network observations in the United States and China. We show that by carefully considering key PF characteristics in addition to T b signatures, the new method significantly improves upon previous T b ‐only methods in detecting MCSs in the midlatitudes for all seasons. Results show that MCSs account for over 50% of annual total rainfall across most of the tropical belt and in selected regions of the midlatitudes, with a strong seasonality over many regions of the globe. The tracking database allows Lagrangian aspects such as MCS lifetime and translational speed and direction to be analyzed. The longest‐lived MCSs preferentially occur over the subtropical oceans. The land MCSs have higher cloud‐tops associated with more intense convection, and oceanic MCSs have much higher rainfall production. While MCSs are observed in many regions of the globe, there are fundamental differences in their dynamic and thermodynamic structures that warrant a better understanding of processes that control their evolution. This global database provides significant opportunities for observational and modeling studies of MCSs, their characteristics, and roles in regional and global water and energy cycles, as well as their hydrologic and other impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1999

Backscatter-to-Extinction Ratios in the Top Layers of Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems and in Isolated Cirrus from LITE Observations

Cloud-integrated attenuated backscatter from observations with the Lidar In-Space Technology Experiment (LITE) was studied over a range of cirrus clouds capping some extensive mesoscale convective systems (MCSS) in the Tropical West Pacific. The integrated backscatter when the cloud is completely attenuating, and when corrected for multiple scattering, is a measure of the cloud particle backscatter phase function. Four different cases of MCS were studied. The first was very large, very intense, and fully attenuating, with cloud tops extending to 17 km and a maximum lidar pulse penetration of about 3 km. It also exhibited the highest integrated attenuated isotropic backscatter, with values in the 532-nm channel of up to 2.5 near the center of the system, falling to 0.6 near the edges. The second MCS had cloud tops that extended to 14.8 km. Although MCS2 was almost fully attenuating, the pulse penetration into the cloud was up to 7 km and the MCS2 had a more diffuse appearance than MCS1. The integrated backscatter values were much lower in this system but with some systematic variations between 0.44 and 0.75. The third MCS was Typhoon Melissa. Values of integrated backscatter in tt-ds case varied from 1.64 near the eye of the typhoon to between 0.44 and 1.0 in the areas of typhoon outflow and in the 532-nm channel. Mean pulse penetration through the cloud top was 2-3 km, the lowest penetration of any of the systems. The fourth MCS consisted of a region of outflow from Typhoon Melissa. The cloud was semitransparent for more than half of the image time. During that time, maximum cloud depth was about 7 km. The integrated backscatter varied from about 0.38 to 0.63 in the 532-nm channel when the cloud was fully attenuating. In some isolated cirrus between the main systems, a plot of integrated backscatter against one minus the two-way transmittance gave a linear dependence with a maximum value of 0.35 when the clouds were fully attenuating. The effective backscatter-to-extinction ratios, when allowing for different multiple-scattering factors from space, were often within the range of those observed with ground-based lidar. Exceptions occurred near the centers of the most intense convection, where values were measured that were considerably higher than those in cirrus observed from the surface. In this case, the values were more compatible with theoretical values for perfectly formed hexagonal columns or plates. The large range in theoretically calculated back- scatter-to-extinction ratio and integrated multiple-scattering factor precluded a closer interpretation in terms of cloud microphysics.

Platt, C. M. R.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Deep convection in mesoscale convective systems

A study was undertaken to examine the evolution of radar echoes and lightning attending the convective storms in mesoscale convective systems (MCS) and the relationships between the spatial and temporal evolution of deep convection and the storm environment, precipitation, severe weather, and lightning. The total number of ground discharges ranges from 10,000 to 30,000 over the life cycle of the MCS with peak sustained rates (for up to 10 consecutive hours) in excess of 2000 per hour. The peak lightning activity occurs from 5 to 20 hours after the first storms and anywhere from 7 hours prior to 7 hours after the time of the maximum areal extent of the MCS for very similar synoptic environments. Thus, it appears that mesoscale and sub-synoptic scale mechanisms are responsible for these large temporal variation in lightning activity. In addition, we have found that the lightning rates in MCS's are not related to either the size or the duration of the MCS. Preliminary results suggest that the MCA's with embedded squall lines produce the greatest flash rates.

Goodman, S. J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Climatological occurrences of hail and tornadoes associated with mesoscale convective systems in the United States

Hail and tornadoes are hazardous weather events responsible for significant property damage and economic loss worldwide. The most devastating occurrences of hail and tornadoes are commonly produced by supercells in the United States. However, these supercells may also grow upscale into mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) or be embedded within them. The relationship between hail and tornado occurrences with MCSs in the long-term climatology has not been thoroughly examined. In this study, radar features associated with MCSs are extracted from a 14-year MCS tracking database across the contiguous United States, and hazard reports are mapped to these MCS features. We investigate the characteristics of hail and tornadoes in relation to MCSs, considering seasonal and regional variabilities. On average, 8 %–17 % of hail events and 17 %–32 % of tornado events are associated with MCSs, depending on the criteria used to define MCSs. The highest total and MCS-associated hazard events occur from March to May, while the highest MCS-associated portion (23 % for hail and 45 % for tornadoes) is observed in winter (December–February) due to the dominance of MCSs caused by strong synoptic forcing. As hailstone size increases, the fraction associated with MCS decreases, but there is an increasing trend for tornado severity from EF0 to EF3 (Enhanced Fujita Scale). Violent tornadoes at EF4 and EF5 associated with MCSs were also observed, which are generated by supercells embedded within MCSs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mesoscale Convective Systems Tracking Method Intercomparison (MCSMIP): Application to DYAMOND Global km‐Scale Simulations

Abstract Global kilometer‐scale models represent the future of Earth system modeling, enabling explicit simulation of organized convective storms and their associated extreme weather. Here, we comprehensively evaluate tropical mesoscale convective system (MCS) characteristics in the DYAMOND (DYnamics of the atmospheric general circulation modeled on non‐hydrostatic domains) simulations for both summer and winter phases. Using 10 different feature trackers applied to simulations and satellite observations, we assess MCS frequency, precipitation, and other key characteristics. Substantial differences (a factor of 2–3) arise among trackers in observed MCS frequency and their precipitation contribution, but model‐observation differences in MCS statistics are more consistent across trackers. DYAMOND models are generally skillful in simulating tropical mean MCS frequency, with multi‐model mean biases ranging from −2%–8% over land and −8%–8% over ocean (summer vs. winter). However, most DYAMOND models underestimate MCS precipitation amount (23%) and their contribution to total precipitation (17%). Biases in precipitation contributions are generally smaller over land (13%) than over ocean (21%), with moderate inter‐model variability. While models better simulate MCS diurnal cycles and cloud shield characteristics, they overestimate MCS precipitation intensity and underestimate stratiform rain contributions (up to a factor of 2), particularly over land, albeit observational uncertainties exist. Additionally, models exhibit a wide range of precipitable water in the tropics compared to reanalysis and satellite observations, with many models showing exaggerated sensitivity of MCS precipitation intensity to precipitable water. The MCS metrics developed here provide process‐oriented diagnostics to guide future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗