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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4

Reduced‐Order Probabilistic Emulation of Physics‐Based Ring Current Models: Application to RAM‐SCB Particle Flux

Abstract In this work, we address the computational challenge of large‐scale physics‐based simulation models for the ring current. Reduced computational cost allows for significantly faster than real‐time forecasting, enhancing our ability to predict and respond to dynamic changes in the ring current, valuable for space weather monitoring and mitigation efforts. Additionally, it can also be used for a comprehensive investigation of the system. Thus, we aim to create an emulator for the Ring current‐Atmosphere interactions Model with Self‐Consistent magnetic field (RAM‐SCB) particle flux that not only improves efficiency but also facilitates forecasting with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainties. The probabilistic emulator is built upon the methodology developed by Licata and Mehta (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2022sw003345 . A novel discrete sampling is used to identify 30 simulation periods over 20 years of solar and geomagnetic activity. Focusing on a subset of particle flux, we use Principal Component Analysis for dimensionality reduction and Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to perform dynamic modeling. Hyperparameter space was explored extensively resulting in about 5% median symmetric accuracy across all data sets for one‐step dynamic prediction. Using a hierarchical ensemble of LSTMs, we have developed a reduced‐order probabilistic emulator (ROPE) tailored for time‐series forecasting of particle flux in the ring current. This ROPE offers accurate predictions of omnidirectional flux at a single energy with no pitch angle information, providing robust predictions on the test set with an error score below 11% and calibration scores under 8% with bias under 2% providing a significant speed up as compared to the full RAM‐SCB run.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

funcX: Federated Function as a Service for Science

Here, funcX is a distributed function as a service (FaaS) platform that enables flexible, scalable, and high performance remote function execution. Unlike centralized FaaS systems, funcX decouples the cloud-hosted management functionality from the edge-hosted execution functionality. funcX's endpoint software can be deployed, by users or administrators, on arbitrary laptops, clouds, clusters, and supercomputers, in effect turning them into function serving systems. funcX's cloud-hosted service provides a single location for registering, sharing, and managing both functions and endpoints. It allows for transparent, secure, and reliable function execution across the federated ecosystem of endpoints-enabling users to route functions to endpoints based on specific needs. funcX uses containers (e.g., Docker, Singularity, and Shifter) to provide common execution environments across endpoints. funcX implements various container management strategies to execute functions with high performance and efficiency on diverse funcX endpoints. funcX also integrates with an in-memory data store and Globus for managing data that may span endpoints. We motivate the need for funcX, present our prototype design and implementation, and demonstrate, via experiments on two supercomputers, that funcX can scale to more than 130000 concurrent workers. We show that funcX's container warming-aware routing algorithm can reduce the completion time for 3,000 functions by up to 61% compared to a randomized algorithm and the in-memory data store can speed up data transfers by up to 3x compared to a shared file system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Diffusion‐Based Uncertainty Quantification Method to Advance E3SM Land Model Calibration

Abstract Calibrating land surface models and accurately quantifying their uncertainty are crucial for improving the reliability of simulations of complex environmental processes. This, in turn, advances our predictive understanding of ecosystems and supports climate‐resilient decision‐making. Traditional calibration methods, however, face challenges of high computational costs and difficulties in accurately quantifying parameter uncertainties. To address these issues, we develop a diffusion‐based uncertainty quantification (DBUQ) method. Unlike conventional generative diffusion methods, which are computationally expensive and memory‐intensive, DBUQ innovates by formulating a parameterized generative model and approximates this model through supervised learning, which enables quick generation of parameter posterior samples to quantify its uncertainty. DBUQ is effective, efficient, and general‐purpose, making it suitable for site‐specific ecosystem model calibration and broadly applicable for parameter uncertainty quantification across various earth system models. In this study, we applied DBUQ to calibrate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model land model at the Missouri Ozark AmeriFlux forest site. Results indicated that DBUQ produced accurate parameter posterior distributions similar to those from Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling but with 30 times less computing time. This significant improvement in efficiency suggests that DBUQ can enable rapid, site‐level model calibration at a global scale, enhancing our predictive understanding of climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Between Harmonic Crystal and Glass: Solids with Dimpled Potential-Energy Surfaces Having Multiple Local Energy Minima

Solids with dimpled potential-energy surfaces are ubiquitous in nature and, typically, exhibit structural (elastic or phonon) instabilities. Dimpled potentials are not harmonic; thus, the conventional quasiharmonic approximation at finite temperatures fails to describe anharmonic vibrations in such solids. At sufficiently high temperatures, their crystal structure is stabilized by entropy; in this phase, a diffraction pattern of a periodic crystal is combined with vibrational properties of a phonon glass. As temperature is lowered, the solid undergoes a symmetry-breaking transition and transforms into a lower-symmetry phase with lower lattice entropy. Here, we identify specific features in the potential-energy surface that lead to such polymorphic behavior; we establish reliable estimates for the relative energies and temperatures associated with the anharmonic vibrations and the solid–solid symmetry-breaking phase transitions. We show that computational phonon methods can be applied to address anharmonic vibrations in a polymorphic solid at fixed temperature. To illustrate the ubiquity of this class of materials, we present a range of examples (elemental metals, a shape-memory alloy, and a layered charge-density-wave system); we show that our theoretical predictions compare well with known experimental data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A large-scale comparison of Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining (AI&DM) techniques in simulating reservoir releases over the Upper Colorado Region

In recent years, the Artificial Intelligence and Data Mining (AI&DM) models have become popular tools in assisting various aspects of reservoir operation. However, the practical uses are still rarely reported. Comparison experiment of many AI&DM models over a large number of reservoir cases is particularly valuable to help reservoir operators first examine the usefulness and transferability of different AI&DM models, and then identify the most stable and reliable AI&DM model in assist of various decision-making processes. In this study, a total of 12 AI&DM models with different parameterizations and simulation scenarios are comprehensively tested out and compared in simulating the controlled reservoir outflows of 33 reservoir cases over the Upper Colorado Region, United States. Results show that the Random Forecast and the Long-Short-Term-Memory model could consistently derive the best statistical performance than other models under the baseline simulation scenario. The employed AI&DM models could obtain satisfactory statistical interquartile ranges (25–75%) between [0.6–0.9], [0.3–0.8], and [0.2–0.8], for CORR, NSE, and KGE measurements, respectively, and [1.5–6.5], [–15 to 20], and [0.5–8.5] for the normalized RMSE, PBIAS and RSR measurements, respectively. Results also show Multi-Layer Perceptron model and Extreme Gradient Boosting Tree Algorithm produced more stable and superior performance than other models under more complex input scenarios. We also found that the performance of different AI&DM models are closely relevant to the reservoir elevations, sizes, and functionalities. Discussions were made about the sensitivity of AI&DM models’ parameterizations and the key advantages of AI&DM models over the rule-based reservoir models. We further identify that the main advantage of AI&DM models is the flexibility in designing input structures, whereas the rule-based simulation model is rather limited. Future studies were suggested regarding the best way reservoir operators and researchers could use, select, and apply different AI&DM models in simulating reservoir releases under different natural and modeling environments. Finally, this comparison study also serves as a reference and a piece of groundwork for further promoting the practical uses of AI&DM models in assisting reservoir operation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Practical Comparison of Data-Driven Prognostics Methods for Energy Systems

This study explores data-driven prognostics for nuclear power plant (NPP) condensers, focusing on tube fouling. We utilized the Asherah nuclear power plant simulator (ANS) to compare four methods: Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN), and Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM). By simulating various fouling scenarios in the ANS, we generated data with different degradation rates under transient operations. The models were trained and tested on these data, with performance evaluated visually and numerically including uncertainty assessment. The LSTM model excelled, exhibiting minimal prediction noise and the most accurate remaining useful life estimates across all degradation levels. Its ability to capture long-term dependencies and produce cleaner outputs makes it a strong candidate, although accurate training data across the entire component lifespan are crucial. The RF model emerged as a robust alternative, providing reliable predictions with high confidence. The FCNN and SVR models, while less effective overall, showed potential under specific conditions. FCNN offers a less complex alternative to LSTM and might benefit from larger datasets. SVR excels in precision when the quality of the training data is high. Furthermore, this study highlights the operational benefits of advanced prognostics in the energy sector and emphasizes the need for further research in NPP condenser health management through real-life experiments.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A deep learning-based Bayesian framework for high-resolution calibration of building energy models

Calibrating building energy models (BEMs), i.e., closing discrepancy between modeling and field measurements, is of significance to support its applications in building sustainability and resilience analysis. However, as being widely used in practice, current Bayesian calibration is mostly performed in low-resolution (annual or monthly), instead of high-resolution (hourly or sub-hourly), which is crucial to support emerging BEM applications, such as building-renewable energy integration (demand response) and smart control. This is attributable to the gaps in current Bayesian calibration process, including (1) difficulty in supporting reliable high-resolution calibration with over-parameterization and multi-solution issues, (2) inadequacy of meta-model to capture temporal building dynamics in high-resolution, and (3) excessive computational burdens of covariance matrix calculation in Bayesian inference. Therefore, to close these gaps, this research proposes a novel deep learning-based Bayesian calibration framework, involving pre-calibration mechanism, Long Short-Term Memory as surrogate models, and simplified covariance matrix calculation, to calibrate BEMs in high temporal resolution (i.e., hourly) with enhanced accuracy and computational efficiency. Finally, the case study demonstrates its effectiveness to match modeling outcomes with measurements and realize CV-RMSE of < 30 % and NMBE of < 6 % in hourly resolution, as well as a significant reduction of calibration time (by > 99 %, from > 600 h to ~ 1.5 h).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Accelerating error correction in tomographic reconstruction

Abstract Spurred by recent advances in detector technology and X-ray optics, upgrades to scanning-probe-based tomographic imaging have led to an exponential growth in the amount and complexity of experimental data and have created a clear opportunity for tomographic imaging to approach single-atom sensitivity. The improved spatial resolution, however, is highly susceptible to systematic and random experimental errors, such as center of rotation drifts, which may lead to imaging artifacts and prevent reliable data extraction. Here, we present a model-based approach that simultaneously optimizes the reconstructed specimen and sinogram alignment as a single optimization problem for tomographic reconstruction with center of rotation error correction. Our algorithm utilizes an adaptive regularizer that is dynamically adjusted at each alternating iteration step. Furthermore, we describe its implementation in a software package targeting high-throughput workflows for execution on distributed-memory clusters. We demonstrate the performance of our solver on large-scale synthetic problems and show that it is robust to a wide range of noise and experimental drifts with near-ideal throughput.

Ali, Sajid (ORCID:0000000321864636)↗

Recent Advancements in Reconfigurable mmWave Devices Based on Phase-Change and Metal Insulator Transition Materials

Chalcogenide Phase Change Materials (PCM) and metal insulator transition (MIT) materials are a group of materials that are capable of switching between low resistance and high resistance states. These emerging materials have been widely used in optical storage media and memory devices. Over the past recent years, there have been interests in exploiting the PCM and MIT materials, especially germanium antimony telluride (GST) alloys and vanadium dioxide (VO 2 ), for radio frequency (RF) applications. The PCM and MIT-based RF devices are expected to bridge the gap between semiconductor switches and microelectromechanical system (MEMS) switches as they combine the low insertion loss performance of MEMS technology and the small size and reliability performance of semiconductor technology. This article presents an overview of the PCM and MIT materials for RF circuits and discusses the recent advancements in reconfigurable millimeter-wave (mmWave) devices based on PCM and MIT materials in depth.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Pushing the limits of NAND technology scaling with ferroelectrics

Artificial intelligence (AI) continues to drive transformative advancements across various industries. The data-intensive nature of AI training (and inferencing) has resulted in the generation of unprecedented volumes of data with machine-generated content surpassing human-generated data by more than 100-fold in 2025. Efficiently managing this data influx necessitates advanced digital storage technologies. However, traditional NAND flash memory, which is critical for supporting data flows in AI systems—alongside high-bandwidth memory, for AI training—faces fundamental scaling limitations as it approaches the 1000-layer milestone, encompassing more than 40 trillion transistors. This article delves into the potential of hafnia-based ferroelectric materials as a breakthrough solution to these challenges. Recent advancements indicate that the intrinsic limitations of ferroelectric field-effect transistors (FEFETs) can be mitigated through material and device-level engineering. These advancements enable FEFETs to meet the stringent density, reliability, and scalability requirements of future three-dimensional NAND technology. The role of ferroelectrics in addressing NAND scaling challenges and expanding storage capabilities presents a promising avenue for meeting the storage demands of the AI-driven era.

3D NAND↗

OLCF Summit Supercomputer GPU Snapshots During Double-Bit Errors and Normal Operations

As we move into the exascale era, the power and energy footprints of high-performance computing (HPC) systems have grown significantly larger. Due to the harsh power and thermal conditions the system, components are exposed to extreme operating conditions. Operation of such modern HPC systems requires deep insights into long term system behavior to maintain its efficiency as well as its longevity. To help the HPC community to gain such insights, we provide double-bit errors using system telemetry data and logs collected from the Summit supercomputer, equipped with 27,648 Tesla V100 GPUs with 2nd-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM2). The dataset relies on Nvidia XID records internally collected by GPU firmware at the time of failure occurrence, on the reboot-time logs of each Summit node, on node-level job scheduler records collected after each job termination, and on a 1Hz data rate from the baseboard management controllers (BMCs) of each Summit compute node using the OpenBMC event subscription protocol. Technical details can be found in the paper Oles et. al “Understanding GPU Memory Corruption at Extreme Scale: The Summit Case Study” ICS’24 (https://doi.org/10.1145/3650200.3656615).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Explainable machine learning model for multi-step forecasting of reservoir inflow with uncertainty quantification

We propose an explainable machine learning (ML) model with uncertainty quantification (UQ) to improve multi-step reservoir inflow forecasting. Traditional ML methods have challenges in forecasting inflows multiple days ahead, and lack explainability and UQ. To address these limitations, we introduce an encoder–decoder long short-term memory (ED-LSTM) network for multi-step forecasting, employ the SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) technique for understanding the influence of hydrometeorological factors on inflow prediction, and develop a novel UQ method for prediction trustworthiness. We apply these methods to forecast 7-day inflow in snow-dominant and rain-driven reservoirs. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the ED-LSTM model, with high forecasting accuracy for short lead times. Our UQ method provides reliable uncertainty estimates, covering 90% of data with a 90% confidence level. The SHAP analysis reveals the importance of historical inflow and precipitation as influential factors. These findings and methods may support reservoir operators in optimizing water resources management decisions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

LAF-Net: A Deep Residual and Cross-Attention Framework for Day-Ahead Load Forecasting: Preprint

Accurate day-ahead load forecasting is essential for reliable power system operations and market efficiency. System operators such as the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) rely on forecasts from multiple vendors, yet combining them effectively remains a persistent challenge due to vendor-specific biases. This paper presents a novel LSTM-Attention Fusion Network with Error Representation (LAF-Net) that enhances day-ahead hourly load forecasting through deep residual learning and multi-modal cross-attention. The proposed model builds a historical error memory from past vendor performance and dynamically queries it with future hour context to generate adaptive, hour-specific trust weights for each vendor. A bounded residual correction further refines forecasts by mitigating systematic and temporally localized errors. Tested on real MISO LBA data with multi-vendor forecasts, LAF-Net consistently outperforms the best vendor baseline across all 38 LBAs, achieving more than a 40% reduction in system-level mean absolute error (MAE) during peak load hours relative to the best vendor baseline.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Securing Smart Manufacturing: Detection of Cyber-Physical Attacks in CNC-Based Systems

As Industry 4.0 advances, the integration of computer numerical control (CNC) machines and advanced manufacturing technologies is transforming production into smart manufacturing systems that blend physical and digital processes as cyber-physical systems. However, this increased cyber-physical connectivity exposes manufacturing systems to cyber threats that can cause severe operational and financial disruptions. This paper presents a comparative study on cyber attacks and anomaly detection techniques in manufacturing, focusing on network traffic from CNC machines. The data extracted from network packets includes machine commands and control signals exchanged between the machine's interface and control system, crucial for maintaining operational integrity. We explore two types of cyber attacks, design modification and command injection, which pose substantial risks to CNC machine productivity and system integrity. Our investigation involves experiments on a real CNC system, highlighting the urgent need for effective detection mechanisms. To address these threats, we evaluate three anomaly detection methods: dynamic time warping (DTW), rolling average, and a deep learning, long short-term memory (LSTM) time-series-based autoencoder. Each is assessed for its effectiveness in identifying anomalous behaviors caused by the attacks. Our findings demonstrate the unique strengths and limitations of each detection technique, providing a deeper understanding of their applicability in realworld manufacturing environments. The comparative analysis indicates that while certain methods are highly effective against specific attack types, others offer broader applicability across different attacks. This study contributes to the accurate detection of anomalies in CNC machining processes, thereby enhancing the reliability and security of smart manufacturing systems against diverse cyber threats.

Williams, Bethanie [Tennessee Technological Univer↗

Cholla-MHD: An Exascale-capable Magnetohydrodynamic Extension to the Cholla Astrophysical Simulation Code

Abstract We present an extension of the massively parallel, GPU native, astrophysical hydrodynamics code Cholla to magnetohydrodynamics (MHD). Cholla solves the ideal MHD equations in their Eulerian form on a static Cartesian mesh utilizing the Van Leer + constrained transport integrator, the HLLD Riemann solver, and reconstruction methods at second and third order. Cholla’s MHD module can perform ≈260 million cell updates per GPU-second on an NVIDIA A100 while using the HLLD Riemann solver and second order reconstruction. The inherently parallel nature of GPUs combined with increased memory in new hardware allows Cholla’s MHD module to perform simulations with resolutions ∼500 3 cells on a single high-end GPU (e.g., an NVIDIA A100 with 80 GB of memory). We employ GPU direct Message Passing Interface to attain excellent weak scaling on the exascale supercomputer Frontier, while using 74,088 GPUs and simulating a total grid size of over 7.2 trillion cells. A suite of test problems highlights the accuracy of Cholla’s MHD module and demonstrates that zero magnetic divergence in solutions is maintained to round off error. We also present new testing and CI tools using GoogleTest, GitHub Actions, and Jenkins that have made development more robust and accurate and ensure reliability in the future.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Leaky Buddies: Cross-Component Covert Channels on Integrated CPU-GPU Systems

Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) are ubiquitous components used across the range of today’s computing plat- forms, from phones and tablets, through personal computers, to high-end server class platforms. With the increasing importance of graphics and video workloads, recent processors are shipped with GPU devices that are integrated on the same chip. Integrated GPUs share some resources with the CPU and as a result, there is a potential for microarchitectural attacks from the GPU to the CPU or vice versa. We consider the potential for covert channel attacks that arise either from shared microarchitectural components (such as caches) or through shared contention domains (e.g., shared buses). We illustrate these two types of channels by developing two reliable covert channel attacks. The first covert channel uses the shared LLC cache in Intel’s integrated GPU architectures. The second is a contention based channel targeting the ring bus connecting the CPU and GPU to the LLC. This is the first demonstrated microarchitectural attack crossing the component boundary (GPU to CPU or vice versa). Cross-component channels introduce a number of new challenges that we had to overcome since they occur across heterogeneous components that use different computation models and are interconnected using asymmetric memory hierarchies. We also exploit GPU parallelism to increase the bandwidth of the communication, even without relying on a common clock. The LLC based channel achieves a bandwidth of 120 kbps with a low error rate of 2%, while the contention based channel delivers up to 400 kbps with a 0.8% error rate. We also demonstrate a proof- of-concept prime-and-probe side channel attack that probes the full LLC from the GPU.

Cyber secruity, high performance comptuing, Hetero↗

Explaining System-Level Prognostics with Established Machine Learning Methods

System-level prognostics is crucial for ensuring reliability and enabling predictive maintenance in complex systems with interconnected components. This study presents a framework that integrates data-driven methods to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of a subsystem under multiple and concurrent faults within a nuclear power plant system with explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). A nuclear power plant (NPP) operation was simulated to model the degradation behavior of NPP components, and four machine learning models—Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), Support Vector Regressor (SVR), Fully Connected Neural Network (FCNN), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)—were evaluated for prognostics with a novel system RUL parameter. The LSTM model demonstrated potential superior repeatability, while SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) for explainability provided consistent and trustworthy global explanations. In contrast, LIME (Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations) offered localized interpretability but showed reduced stability for sequential data. Key findings include the interplay between component-level degradation and system-wide performance, with LSTM effectively capturing these dynamics through sequence-level predictions. The XAI techniques enhanced transparency by identifying critical features influencing model predictions and aligning with domain knowledge. Furthermore, this framework has significant implications for improving trust and understanding in predictive maintenance, particularly in safety-critical industries like nuclear energy.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗