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DOE OSTI2023

Insights on the dissolution of water in an albite melt at high pressures and temperatures from a direct structural analysis

The water dissolution mechanism in silicate melts under high pressures is not well understood. Here we present the first direct structure investigation of a water-saturated albite melt to monitor the interactions between water and the network structure of silicate melt at the molecular level. In situ high-energy X-ray diffraction was carried out on the NaAlSi 3 O 8 -H 2 O system at 800 °C and 300 MPa, at the Advanced Photon Source synchrotron facility. The analysis of the X-ray diffraction data was augmented with classical Molecular Dynamics simulations of a hydrous albite melt, incorporating accurate water-based interactions. The results show that metal–oxygen bond breaking at the bridging sites occurs overwhelmingly at the Si site upon reaction with H 2 O, with subsequent Si–OH bond formation and negligible Al–OH formation. Furthermore, we see no evidence for the dissociation of the Al 3+ ion from the network structure upon breaking of the Si–O bond in the hydrous albite melt. The results also indicate that the Na + ion is an active participant in the modifications of the silicate network structure of the albite melt upon water dissolution at high P–T conditions. We do not find evidence for the Na + ion dissociating from the network structure upon depolymerization and subsequent formation of NaOH complexes. Instead, our results show that the Na + ion persists as a structure modifier with a shift away from Na–BO bonding to an increase in the extent of Na-NBO bonding, in parallel with pronounced depolymerization of the network. Our MD simulations show that the Si–O and Al–O bond lengths are expanded by about 6% in the hydrous albite melt compared to those of the dry melt at high P–T conditions. The changes in the network silicate structure of a hydrous albite melt at high pressure and temperature, as revealed in this study, must be considered in the advancement of water dissolution models of hydrous granitic (or alkali aluminosilicate) melts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Systematic analysis of melt pool dynamics in laser processing of mixed powder feedstocks

Functionally graded materials (FGMs) fabricated via additive manufacturing of blended powders offer the potential to spatially tailor properties for new technologies, such as fusion first-wall systems, turbine blades, and spacecraft. However, processing these materials is difficult due to the multiplicity of processing parameters to optimize, all of which must be changed as substrate material, powder feedstock compositions, and melt pool dynamics evolve. Here, this work systematically evaluates the qualitative and quantitative effects of these variables on the melt pool size, shape, composition, and particle distribution in an exemplar Ti-Ta system, and connects the experimental results to Marangoni flow behavior and phenomena observed in other systems. Increasing laser power linearly increases melt pool size and layer thickness, driving engineering considerations such as part/geometrical tolerances. Decreasing laser velocity changes the melt pool shape from lenticular to convex and reduces chemical homogeneity due to extreme thermal and compositional gradients between the melt pool center and boundaries. Thermophysical property differences between the powder feedstock and substrate material, as well as the directionality of the gradient, affect dilution and melt pool dynamics, which in turn affect the melt pool boundary characteristics, shape, and uniformity. Mixed powder feedstocks of intermediate compositions do not behave according to linear interpolations between single-material endpoints, instead building taller and wider melt pools. As such, it is recommended to quantify process maps for at least one intermediate composition in the FGM or multi-material system of interest to ensure optimized processing parameters, predictable melt pool sizes and shapes, and compositional and spatial precision.

Dissimilar↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effect of Thermal Expansion Coefficient, Viscosity and Melting Range in Simulation of PCM Embedded Heat Exchangers With and Without Fins

Phase change material heat exchangers (PCMHX) have an important role in integrating renewable energy systems. PCMHX can offer high storage density at various temperatures of interest and can be used for grid load shifting purposes. Numerical models enable engineers to estimate PCMHX performance for different design parameters and operating conditions. Modeling phase change phenomena is challenging due to the complex time-dependent nature of the process. The accuracy of models is highly sensitive to PCM thermo-physical properties. Thermal expansion coefficient (β), viscosity (μ) and melting temperature range (MR) of a PCM are important properties, especially when natural convection is not negligible. In PCMHX modeling, using less than accurate values for these properties can have significant impact on the simulation outcomes. These properties and discussions thereof are not readily available in the literature. This paper presents a brief review of the literature and a numerical study investigating the model sensitivity to the above-mentioned properties for PCMHX with and without fins. CFD is used to evaluate the charging (melting) phenomena. The study quantifies the impact of uncertainty in these properties on the melting rate and temperature profile. Constant wall temperature was considered as heat source with no heat loss to ambient. Here, the results show that β and μ has significant effect on the melting rate and evolution of the melting front. For a non-finned domain when comparing results for different published values of β and μ, the deviation in melting time can be up to 12.9% and 57.6% respectively. For high wall temperatures, change in melting range did not impact melting time. But when the wall temperature is reduced, up to 9.8% deviation in melting time is observed.

CFD↗

DOE OSTI2022

Spatiotemporal evolution of melt ponds on Arctic sea ice

Melt ponds on sea ice play an important role in the Arctic climate system. Their presence alters the partitioning of solar radiation: decreasing reflection, increasing absorption and transmission to the ice and ocean, and enhancing melt. The spatiotemporal properties of melt ponds thus modify ice albedo feedbacks and the mass balance of Arctic sea ice. The Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition presented a valuable opportunity to investigate the seasonal evolution of melt ponds through a rich array of atmosphere-ice-ocean measurements across spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we characterize the seasonal behavior and variability in the snow, surface scattering layer, and melt ponds from spring melt to autumn freeze-up using in situ surveys and auxiliary observations. We compare the results to satellite retrievals and output from two models: the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) and the Marginal Ice Zone Modeling and Assimilation System (MIZMAS). During the melt season, the maximum pond coverage and depth were 21% and 22 ± 13 cm, respectively, with distribution and depth corresponding to surface roughness and ice thickness. Compared to observations, both models overestimate melt pond coverage in summer, with maximum values of approximately 41% (MIZMAS) and 51% (CESM2). This overestimation has important implications for accurately simulating albedo feedbacks. During the observed freeze-up, weather events, including rain on snow, caused high-frequency variability in snow depth, while pond coverage and depth remained relatively constant until continuous freezing ensued. Both models accurately simulate the abrupt cessation of melt ponds during freeze-up, but the dates of freeze-up differ. MIZMAS accurately simulates the observed date of freeze-up, while CESM2 simulates freeze-up one-to-two weeks earlier. This work demonstrates areas that warrant future observation-model synthesis for improving the representation of sea-ice processes and properties, which can aid accurate simulations of albedo feedbacks in a warming climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Wind‐Associated Melt Trends and Contrasts Between the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Föhn and katabatic winds (downslope winds) can increase ice sheet surface melt, run-off, and ice-shelf vulnerability to hydrofracture and are poorly constrained on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GIS and AIS). We use regional climate model simulations of the GIS and AIS to quantify and intercompare trends in downslope winds and associated melt since 1960. Results reveal surface melt associated with downslope wind is significant on both the GIS and AIS representing 27.5 ± 4.5% and 19.7 ± 3.8% of total surface melt respectively. Wind-associated melt has decreased 31.8 ± 5.3% on the AIS while total melt decreased 15.4 ± 2.4% due to decreased föhn-induced melt on the Antarctic Peninsula and increasing stratospheric ozone. Wind-associated melt has increased 10.3 ± 2.5% on the GIS, combining with a more positive North Atlantic Oscillation and warmer surface to increase total melt 34 ± 5.8%.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Basal Melting and Oceanic Observations Beneath Central Fimbulisen, East Antarctica

Abstract Basal melting of ice shelves is fundamental to Antarctic ice sheet mass loss, yet direct observations remain sparse. We present the first year‐round melt record (2017–2021) from a phase‐sensitive radar on Fimbulisen, one of the fastest flowing ice shelves in Dronning Maud Land, East Antarctica. The observed long‐term mean ablation rate at 350 m depth below the central ice shelf was 1.0 ± 0.5 m yr −1 , marked by substantial sub‐weekly variability ranging from 0.4 to 3.5 m yr −1 . 36‐h filtered basal melt rate fluctuations closely align with ocean velocity. On seasonal time scales, melt rates peak during austral spring to autumn (September–March), driven by both elevated ocean velocities and thermal driving near the base. The combined effect of thermal driving and current speed explains the majority of the melt rate variability ( r = 0.84), highlighting the dominant role of shear‐driven turbulence. This relationship enables parameterization of melt rates for the decade‐long ocean record (2010–2021), although deviations appear under low and high forcing conditions. Both observed and parameterized melt rates show similar yearly mean magnitudes compared to satellite‐derived melt rates but with a tenfold lower seasonal amplitude and a 3‐month delay in seasonality. These detailed concurrent ice–ocean observations provide essential validation data for remote sensing and numerical models that aim to quantify and project ice‐shelf response to a change in ocean forcing. In situ measurements and continued monitoring are crucial for accurately assessing and modeling future basal melt rates, and for understanding the complex dynamics driving ice‐shelf stability and sea‐level change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Size-dependent second-order-like phase transitions in Fe nanocluster melting from low-temperature structural isomerization

Here, in this work, the melting phase transitions of Fe n nanoclusters with 10 ≤ n ≤ 100 atoms are investigated using classical many-body molecular dynamics simulations. For many cluster sizes, surface melting occurs at much lower temperatures than core melting. Surface and core melting points and energetic melting points (temperatures of maximum heat capacity, C v ) are calculated for all cluster sizes. Melting properties are found to be strong functions of cluster structure. Cluster sizes with closed-shell structures always have first-order-like phase transitions. Almost one-third of cluster sizes in the analyzed range exhibit second-order-like phase transitions due to the presence of multiple structural configurations close in energy. 1-shell clusters with one to a few more atoms than a neighboring closed-shell structure have very low surface melting points and very high energetic melting points compared to their closed-shell counterparts. In clusters above 50 atoms with certain core structures, melting of the surface before the core was observed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Viscosity of glass-forming melt at the bottom of high-level waste melter feed cold caps: Effects of temperature and incorporation of solid components

At the final stages of conversion of melter feed (glass batch) to molten glass, the transient glass-forming melt becomes a continuous liquid phase encapsulating dissolving solid particles and gas bubbles that produce primary foam at the bottom of the cold cap (the reacting melter feed in an electric glass melting furnace). The glass-forming melt viscosity plays a dominant role in primary foam formation, stability, and eventual collapse, thus affecting the rate of melting (the glass production rate per cold cap area). For several melter feeds designed for nuclear waste vitrification, we have traced the glass-forming melt viscosity during the final stages of feed-to-glass conversion as it changes in response to changing temperature and composition (resulting from dissolving solid particles). Starting with a relatively low values at the moment when the melt connects, melt viscosity reaches maximum within the primary foam layer and then decreases to its final melter-operating temperature value. We paid a particular attention to the cold-cap bottom—the boundary between the primary foam layer and the thermal boundary layer—where the melt viscosity affects the rate of melting predominantly through its effect on the temperature at which primary foam is collapsing.

Lee, Seung Min↗

DOE OSTI2020

A protocol for calculating basal melt rates in the ISMIP6 Antarctic ice sheet projections

Climate model projections have previously been used to compute ice shelf basal melt rates in ice sheet models, but the strategies employed – e.g., ocean input, parameterization, calibration technique, and corrections – have varied widely and are often ad hoc. Here, a methodology is proposed for the calculation of circum-Antarctic basal melt rates for floating ice, based on climate models, that is suitable for ISMIP6, the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project). The past and future evolution of ocean temperature and salinity is derived from a climate model by estimating anomalies with respect to the modern day, which are added to a present-day climatology constructed from existing observational datasets. Temperature and salinity are extrapolated to any position potentially occupied by a simulated ice shelf. A simple formulation is proposed for a basal melt parameterization in ISMIP6, constrained by the observed temperature climatology, with a quadratic dependency on either the nonlocal or local thermal forcing. Two calibration methods are proposed: (1) based on the mean Antarctic melt rate (MeanAnt) and (2) based on melt rates near Pine Island's deep grounding line (PIGL). Future Antarctic mean melt rates are an order of magnitude greater in PIGL than in MeanAnt. The PIGL calibration and the local parameterization result in more realistic melt rates near grounding lines. PIGL is also more consistent with observations of interannual melt rate variability underneath Pine Island and Dotson ice shelves. This work stresses the need for more physics and less calibration in the parameterizations and for more observations of hydrographic properties and melt rates at interannual and decadal timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

P2M Simulation Exercise on Past Fuel Melting Irradiation Experiments

This paper presents the results of the Power To Melt and Maneuverability (P2M) Simulation Exercise on past fuel melting irradiation experiments, organized within the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/Nuclear Energy Agency Framework for IrraDiation ExperimentS (FIDES) framework by the Core Group (CEA, EDF, and SCK·CEN) and open to all FIDES members. The exercise consisted in simulating two past power ramps where fuel melting was detected: (1) the xM3 staircase power transient [ramp terminal level (RTL) 70 kW·m -1 , average burnup 27 GWd·tU -1 ], carried out in 2005 in the R2 reactor at Studsvik (Sweden), where the rodlet maintained its integrity, and (2) the HBC4 fast power transient (RTL 66 kW·m -1 , average burnup 48 GWd·tU -1 ), carried out in 1987 in the BR2 reactor at SCK·CEN (Belgium), where the cladding failed during the experiment. The exercise was joined by 13 organizations from 9 countries using 11 different fuel performance codes. In this paper, the main results of the Simulation Exercise are presented and compared to available postirradiation examinations (PIE) or on-line measurements during the power ramps (fuel and clad diameters, rod elongation, pellet-clad gap, and fission gas release). Since the focus of the Simulation Exercise is on fuel melting assessment, determination of the boundary between melted/nonmelted fuel and the consequent definition of a melting radius from PIE are first discussed. During the HBC4 ramp, fuel melting was predicted by most of the codes despite differences in the melting models. Higher discrepancies were observed for the xM3 rod that can be attributed partly to power uncertainty and partly to the limited capability of the models to describe partial melting of the fuel during this ramp. Finally, possible code developments to improve simulation results are presented.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Design Optimization for Printed Melt Wire Arrays Encapsulation

As part of the Nuclear Energy Enabling Technology (NEET) Advanced Sensor and Instrumentation (ASI) Program, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has recently established in-house capabilities to fabricate and test new advanced-manufactured sensors for measuring peak irradiation temperature within a nuclear test reactor. Although methods of real-time temperature monitoring, such as thermocouples, may be used, the complexity of feedthroughs and attachments to collect real-time measurements greatly increases the cost of the experiment. Instead, passive monitoring techniques may be used for peak- temperature measurement that exploit the melting point of well-characterized materials (standard melt wires) to infer peak reactor temperatures. However, limited available space for instrumentation during experiments introduces an additional challenge. To accommodate this, INL has expanded its temperature- detection instrumentation capabilities to include advanced manufactured (AM) melt wires for peak irradiation temperature measurements. These melt wires can determine peak temperatures while also accommodate space limitations in irradiation experiments. In an effort to improve performance reliability of AM meltwire capabilities, a process was developed and tested to identify the significance of entrapping a high purity inert atmosphere within the packaging of printed melt wire arrays. The materials used in this study were aluminum, zinc, and tin encapsulated in high purity helium within a stainless steel (SS) 316 container. Tin, with a low melting point of approximately 230°C, Zn with a mid-melting point of approximately 420°C, and Al with a high melting point of approximately 660°C. This report describes the design, fabrication process, furnace testing and X-ray Computed Tomography (XCT) evaluation. Results show a successful outcome in creating an inert gas encapsulation and high-resolution evaluation methods.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Migration and accumulation of hydrous mantle incipient melt in the Earth's asthenosphere: Constraints from in-situ falling sphere viscometry measurements

The Earth's oceanic lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB) is marked by a notable decrease in seismic wave velocities and an increase in attenuation. This phenomenon is likely attributed to the accumulation of partial melt at the top of the asthenosphere. Nevertheless, the process involving the upward migration and aggregation of low-degree partial melts, highly likely to be mantle incipient melts in the asthenosphere, remains underexplored. Viscosity is a key factor controlling the flow of melts, thus in this study, we used In-situ X-ray falling sphere viscometry experiments to determine the viscosity of the mantle incipient melt containing 1.8–4.0 wt.% water at 1.5–6 GPa and 2100 K. We found that water and pressure can effectively decrease the viscosity of the mantle incipient melt. Therefore, the mantle incipient melts are highly mobile with a high segregation velocity in the deeper part of the asthenosphere. However, during ascent, their mobility diminishes due to an increase in viscosity and a decrease in water content. In conclusion, these mechanisms potentially contribute to the accumulation of partial melt at the top of the asthenosphere.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Mg(BH 4 ) 2 -Based Hybrid Metal–Organic Borohydride System Exhibiting Enhanced Chemical Stability in Melt

The formation of a chemically stable and thermally cyclable Mg(BH 4 ) 2 melt is proven to be possible through the utilization of an organic borohydride salt additive. While extensive exploration of additives for lowering the melting point and modifying the chemical stability of Mg(BH 4 ) 2 has been reported, this is the first study to use the organic borohydride salt, tetramethylammonium borohydride (TMAB), to modify the melting behavior of Mg(BH 4 ) 2 . Here, examination of a 5:1 molar mixture of Mg(BH 4 ) 2 and TMAB revealed a reversible melt between 180 and 195 °C, which was reproduced for five thermal cycles. The mixture melt exhibited an enhanced chemical stability compared to melts of the individual Mg(BH 4 ) 2 and TMAB species. It was observed that between room temperature and 250 °C (over 50 °C above the melting point), the mixture releases <0.1 wt % mass, consisting primarily of H 2 . The mixture also exhibits greatly reduced evolution of volatile boron containing compounds compared to either Mg(BH 4 ) 2 or TMAB. The use of TMAB to chemically stabilize a Mg(BH 4 ) 2 -rich melt demonstrated in this work represents an exciting pathway to modification of Mg(BH 4 ) 2 relevant to both hydrogen-storage and magnesium battery fields.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Anisotropic Melt Inclusions as a Confounding Signal for Ice‐Penetrating Radar Observations

Ice-penetrating radar is a powerful geophysical tool for understanding the subsurfaces of Earth, Mars, and icy moons. Radar reflectivity, attenuation, and birefringence are used to infer subsurface hydrology, englacial temperature, water content, and crystal orientation fabric. However, conventional radar sounding analyses either ignore melt or use classical mixing models which assume spherical melt inclusions, obscuring anisotropic contributions of melt. Here, we use geometric mixing models to calculate the reflectivity, attenuation, and birefringence of temperate ice containing anisotropic melt. We find that anisotropic melt can introduce significant deviations in radar measurements. For instance, melt anisotropy may impact reflectivity-based estimates of water content by up to 30% volume fraction, while attenuation-based estimates may vary by up to 43%. Critically, a melt volume fraction of just $f$ ~ 10 -5 can reproduce birefringence signals previously attributed to ice fabric. We conclude that melt anisotropy may significantly impact analyses of englacial hydrology, subglacial hydrology, and ice fabric.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

In situ melt pool measurements for laser powder bed fusion using multi sensing and correlation analysis

Laser powder bed fusion is a promising technology for local deposition and microstructure control, but it suffers from defects such as delamination and porosity due to the lack of understanding of melt pool dynamics. To study the fundamental behavior of the melt pool, both geometric and thermal sensing with high spatial and temporal resolutions are necessary. This work applies and integrates three advanced sensing technologies: synchrotron X-ray imaging, high-speed IR camera, and high-spatial-resolution IR camera to characterize the evolution of the melt pool shape, keyhole, vapor plume, and thermal evolution in Ti–6Al–4V and 410 stainless steel spot melt cases. Aside from presenting the sensing capability, this paper develops an effective algorithm for high-speed X-ray imaging data to identify melt pool geometries accurately. Preprocessing methods are also implemented for the IR data to estimate the emissivity value and extrapolate the saturated pixels. Quantifications on boundary velocities, melt pool dimensions, thermal gradients, and cooling rates are performed, enabling future comprehensive melt pool dynamics and microstructure analysis. The study discovers a strong correlation between the thermal and X-ray data, demonstrating the feasibility of using relatively cheap IR cameras to predict features that currently can only be captured using costly synchrotron X-ray imaging. Such correlation can be used for future thermal-based melt pool control and model validation.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Incipient Melting in AA7075

Incipient melting is a phenomenon that can occur in aluminum alloys where solute rich areas, such as grain boundaries, can melt before the rest of the material; incipient melting can degrade mechanical and corrosion properties and is irreversible, resulting in material scrapping. After detecting indications of incipient melting as the cause of failure in 7075 aluminum alloy parts (AA7075), a study was launched to determine threshold temperature for incipient melting. Samples of AA7075 were solution annealed using temperatures ranging from 870-1090F. A hardness profile was developed to demonstrate the loss of mechanical properties through the progression of incipient melting. Additionally, Zeiss software Zen Core Intellesis was utilized to more accurately quantify the changes in microstructural properties as AA7075 surpassed the onset of incipient melting. The results from this study were compared with previous AA7075 material that demonstrated incipient melting.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Unraveling the Effects of Melt–Mantle Interactions on the Gold Fertility of Magmas

The oxidation state of the Earth’s mantle and its partial melting products exert a key control on the behavior and distribution of sulfur and chalcophile and siderophile elements between the mantle and crust, underpinning models of ore deposit formation. Whether the oxidized nature of magmas is inherited from the asthenospheric mantle source or acquired during ascent and differentiation is vigorously debated, limiting our understanding of the mechanisms of extraction of sulfur and metals from the mantle. Here, we focused on the redox-sensitive behavior of sulfur in apatite crystallized from quenched alkaline basaltic melts preserved within a peridotite xenolith from the El Deseado Massif auriferous province in southern Patagonia. We took advantage of this unique setting to elucidate the redox evolution of melts during their ascent through the subcontinental lithospheric mantle (SCLM) and grasp the inner workings of the Earth’s mantle during gold metallogenesis. Our data reveal that an initially reduced silicate melt (ΔFMQ -2.2 to -1.2) was oxidized to ΔFMQ between 0 and 1.2 during percolation and interaction with the surrounding peridotite wall-rock (ΔFMQ 0 to +0.8). This process triggered changes in sulfur speciation and solubility in the silicate melt, boosting the potential of the melt to scavenge ore metals such as gold. We suggest that large redox gradients resulting from the interaction between ascending melts and the surrounding mantle can potentially modify the oxidation state of primitive melts and enhance their metallogenic fertility. Among other factors including an enriched metal source and favorable geodynamic conditions, redox gradients in the mantle may exert a first-order control on the global-scale localization of crustal provinces endowed with gold deposits.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)

Abstract. The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise that arises from large uncertainty in the oceanic forcing and the associated ice shelf melting. Ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean. However, by computing only the sea level contribution in response to ice shelf melting, our study is neglecting a number of processes such as surface-mass-balance-related contributions. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any self-dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations in which an instability is dominating the ice loss. The results obtained here are thus relevant, in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong ocean warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014) but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming), and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ice sheet models to obtain the ice flow response to the individual global warming path. The model median for the observational period from 1992 to 2017 of the ice loss due to basal ice shelf melting is 10.2 mm, with a likely range between 5.2 and 21.3 mm. For the same period the Antarctic ice sheet lost mass equivalent to 7.4 mm of global sea level rise, with a standard deviation of 3.7 mm (Shepherd et al., 2018) including all processes, especially surface-mass-balance changes. For the unabated warming path, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), we obtain a median contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global mean sea level rise from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century of 17 cm, with a likely range (66th percentile around the mean) between 9 and 36 cm and a very likely range (90th percentile around the mean) between 6 and 58 cm. For the RCP2.6 warming path, which will keep the global mean temperature below 2 ∘C of global warming and is thus consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement, the procedure yields a median of 13 cm of global mean sea level contribution. The likely range for the RCP2.6 scenario is between 7 and 24 cm, and the very likely range is between 4 and 37 cm. The structural uncertainties in the method do not allow for an interpretation of any higher uncertainty percentiles. We provide projections for the five Antarctic regions and for each model and each scenario separately. The rate of sea level contribution is highest under the RCP8.5 scenario. The maximum within the 21st century of the median value is 4 cm per decade, with a likely range between 2 and 9 cm per decade and a very likely range between 1 and 14 cm per decade.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗