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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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A growing market exists in the Unites States for the use of carbon or graphite fibers in civil aircraft. The results of an investigation of this fiber (CF) market are described. The overall objectives in this task were to estimate the current (1977) CF market by sector, to forecast the CF market to 1993, to characterize the civil aircraft sector, and to identify competitive materials.
The extent of the threat to the US helicopter industry posed by a determined effort by foreign manufacturers, European companies in particular, to supply their own domestic markets and also to penetrate export markets, including the USA is assessed. Available data on US and world markets for civil and military uses are collated and presented in both graphic and tabular form showing the past history of production and markets and, where forecasts are available, anticipated future trends. The data are discussed on an item-by-item basis and inferences are drawn in as much depth as appears justified.
NASA is currently conducting a series of millimeter wave satellite system and market studies to develop 30/20 GHz satellite system concepts that have commercial potential for the period 1980-2000. The results of the market studies to-date focusing on the overall demand forecasts and distributions by geographic location, distance, and user category are discussed. Tables are presented indicating baseline market forecast voice and video services, data service category, impacted baseline forecast, and traffic/distance distribution voice services. It is concluded that the total market and system activity will be influential in determining the potential role of millimeter wave systems in the overall transmission needs of the nation, and the amount of the total forecasted traffic suitable for millimeter wave systems.
A grass roots evaluation of the market potential was carried out for photovoltaic applications in remote villages in the U. S. and its possessions. An estimate of almost 14 MWp available for conversion from a potential to a real market was defined. The total power potential was based on the energy needs of almost 400 sites reported by Federal agencies and inputs from over 100 Indian tribes. The methodology used, the results achieved, and some recommendations of how to convert this domestic market potential into a real market are detailed.
By creating a number of market scenarios variations dealing with network types, network sizes, and service price levels were analyzed for their impact on market demand. Each market scenario represents a market demand forecast with results for voice, data, and video service traffic expressed in peak load megabits per second.
Federal market development strategies designed to accelerate the market penetration of central station applications of photovoltaic energy system are analyzed. Since no specific goals were set for the commercialization of central station applications, strategic principles are explored which, when coupled with specific objectives for central stations, can produce a market development implementation plan. The study includes (1) background information on the National Photovoltaic Program, photovoltaic technology, and central stations; (2) a brief market assessment; (3) a discussion of the viewpoints of the electric utility industry with respect to solar energy; (4) a discussion of commercialization issues; and (5) strategy principles. It is recommended that a set of specific goals and objectives be defined for the photovoltaic central station program, and that these goals and objectives evolve into an implementation plan that identifies the appropriate federal role.
The civil markets for heavy lift airships (HLAs) were defined by first identifying areas of most likely application. The operational suitability of HLAs for the applications identified were then assessed. The operating economics of HLAs were established and the market size for HLA services estimated by comparing HLA operating and economic characteristics with those of competing modes. The sensitivities of the market size to HLA characteristics were evaluated and the number and sizes of the vehicles required to service the more promising markets were defined. Important characteristics for future HLAs are discussed that were derived from the study of each application, including operational requirements, features enhancing profitability, military compatibility, improved design requirements, approach to entry into service, and institutional implications for design and operation.
Advanced supersonic transport markets of the free world were projected for the period 1985 to 2004. Passenger traffic volume and airplane range and seat capacity requirements were estimated for Mach 2.2 service by international regional area market areas and by city pairs within and between these areas. Market factors and traffic factors examined include variable loads, growth rates, supersonic transport market shares, and schedule frequencies considering the different makeup of passenger traffic and individual city pairs. Direct, indirect, and total operating costs and yield levels were economically analyzed for first class and full fare economy class traffic.
The forecast market potential of a solar technology is an important factor determining its R&D funding. Since solar energy market penetration models are the method used to forecast market potential, they have a pivotal role in a solar technology's development. This paper critiques the applicability of the most common solar energy market penetration models. It is argued that the assumptions underlying the foundations of rigorously developed models, or the absence of a reasonable foundation for the remaining models, restrict their applicability.
The first year of cost-competitiveness, the market potential, and the environment in which PV systems would be marketed and employed were examined. Market elements specific to Mexico addressed include: (1) useful applications and estimates of the potential market for PV systems; (2) power requirements and load profiles for applications compatible with PV usage; (3) operating and cost characteristics of power systems that compete against PV; (4) national development goals in rural electrification and rural services, technology programs and government policies that influence the demand for PV in Mexico; (5) financing mechanisms and capital available for PV acquisition; (6) channels for distribution, installation and maintenance of PV systems; and (7) appropriate methods for conducting business in Mexico.
The potential size of the onfarm-pumped irrigation market for solar thermal parabolic dish systems in seven high-insolation states is estimated. The study is restricted to the displacement of three specific fuels: gasoline, diesel and natural gas. The model was developed to estimate the optimal number of parabolic dish modules per farm based on the minimum cost mix of conventional and solar thermal energy required to meet irrigation needs. The study concludes that the potential market size for onfarm-pumped irrigation applications ranges from 101,000 modules when a 14 percent real discount rate is assumed to 220,000 modules when the real discount rate drops to 8 percent. Arizona, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico and Texas account for 98 percent of the total demand for this application, with the natural gas replacement market accounting for the largest segment (71 percent) of the total market.
A marketing tool was created to expand the knowledge of LaRC developed polymeric materials, in order to facilitate the technology transfer process and increase technology commercialization awareness among a non-technical audience. The created brochure features four materials, LaRC-CP, LaRC-RP46, LaRC-SI, and LaRC-IA, and highlights their competitive strengths in potential commercial applications. Excellent opportunities exist in the $40 million per year microelectronics market and the $6 billion adhesives market. It is hoped that the created brochure will generate inquiries regarding the use of the above materials in markets such as these.
Fish poaching, drug trafficking, ocean dumping, and other illegal activities are important problems on the high seas and in national economic zones. The primary thrust of the EOCAP II project, "Marketing Remote Sensing Data for North Pacific Fisheries Development and Management", was to use space-based sensors to improve the effectiveness of marine monitoring, control, and surveillance (MCS). Our initial objectives were to concentrate on the development of MCS tools using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometry (AVHRR) and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. Although we have successfully completed development of an initial version of our SAR-based monitoring tool (OmniVision), project activity has resulted in a much broader application of space-based assets to marine applications. Based in part on work commenced within EOCAP II, a new company, Ocean and Coastal Environmental Sensing, Inc. (OCENS), has been launched and the development of several new software products outside of the MCS arena initiated. One of those products, SeaStation, is near completion with a Fall, 1995 release date. Equity investment in OCENS now totals $70,000-with an additional amount being sought in the first round of financing. One of the pre-eminent objectives of EOCAP II is to make contributions to the US economy and job growth through the expansion of commercial uses of remotely sensed data. OCENS and the software products it is introducing into marine and coastal zone markets responds to this primary object*e. EOCAP II funding leveraged the market and technical know-how of OCENS founders into smart products that benefit marine and coastal zone users. Although technical difficulties and geopolitical shifts damaged the commercial feasibility of initial project objectives, the flexibility of the EOCAP II program now permits long-term business success. This in no small part stems from the fact that the EOCAP program recognizes the realities of small and start-up businesses and does not attempt to force these conditions to fit the apparent needs of big government. Instead, EOCAP works with those who know their market best in order to produce successful products and expanding businesses.
Over the past several years there have been aircraft conceptual design and system studies that have reached conflicting conclusions relating to the feasibility of full and hybrid electric aircraft. Some studies and propulsion discipline experts have claimed that battery technologies will need to improve by 10 to 20 times before electric aircraft can effectively compete with reciprocating or turbine engines. However, such studies have approached comparative assessments without understanding the compelling differences that electric propulsion offers, how these technologies will fundamentally alter the way propulsion integration is approached, or how these new technologies can not only compete but far exceed existing propulsion solutions in many ways at battery specific energy densities of only 400 watt hours per kilogram. Electric propulsion characteristics offer the opportunity to achieve 4 to 8 time improvements in energy costs with dramatically lower total operating costs, while dramatically improving efficiency, community noise, propulsion system reliability and safety through redundancy, as well as life cycle Green House Gas emissions. Integration of electric propulsion will involve far greater degrees of distribution than existing propulsion solutions due to their compact and scale-free nature to achieve multi-disciplinary coupling and synergistic integration with the aerodynamics, highlift system, acoustics, vehicle control, balance, and aeroelasticity. Appropriate metrics of comparison and differences in analysis/design tools are discussed while comparing electric propulsion to other disruptive technologies. For several initial applications, battery energy density is already sufficient for competitive products, and for many additional markets energy densities will likely be adequate within the next 7 years for vibrant introduction. Market evolution and early adopter markets are discussed, along with the investment areas that will fill technology gaps and create opportunities for the effective, near-term electric aircraft products. Without understanding both the context of how electric propulsion will integrate into the vehicle system, and evolve into the market place it is likely that electric propulsion will continue to be misunderstood.
Utilities need to recover value from baseload and some renewable assets even when the electricity is curtailed. The declining cost of renewables (particularly solar), the persistently low-cost of natural gas, and the declining electricity demand, have all worked to lower the price of electricity. Furthermore, the baseload assets have a high turndown cost, which is not reflected in the low market electricity prices. One option for utilizing the curtailed electricity is hydrogen generation. One important aspect of this project will be to provide a “go/no-go” recommendation on the economic feasibility of pursuing hydrogen generation vs. other markets that could offtake curtailed electricity or nuclear steam. This project will specifically assess the opportunities for hydrogen production and use in the service territories of Southern Company Services (SCS), Exelon SBC, and Xcel Energy. Each utility partner represents a different mix of generation fleets: Exelon has significant nuclear assets, Xcel is primarily renewables (wind) with some nuclear, and SCS represents both a renewables fleet and a heavily baseload fleet, which includes significant nuclear. The Contractors will conduct the study of hydrogen market opportunities by first considering the approximate electricity demand and price profiles for the year, and power generation capacity that can be used to produce hydrogen. Therefore, a profile for hydrogen generation will also be developed to better understand the quantity and timing of hydrogen production. Once the hydrogen production schedule is estimated, hydrogen storage requirements can be determined. This effort will provide sufficient information to make a go/no-go decision on moving ahead with a detailed regional case study for hydrogen production in any of the three utility areas.
Voluntary green power, for this report, refers to renewable energy procurement by retail electricity customers above what is otherwise provided by load-serving entities. This report is part of an annual series of reports synthesizing trends in the U.S. voluntary green power market. In 2023, about 9.7 million retail electricity customers procured about 319 million megawatt-hours (MWh) of voluntary green power (Figure ES-1), representing a 17% increase over sales in 2022. Estimated voluntary green power market sales represented about 44% of non-hydropower renewable energy sales and about 8% of all U.S. retail electricity sales in 2023. Most of the remainder of U.S. renewable energy sales reflects renewable energy procured by load-serving entities to comply with state renewable energy mandates, also known as compliance-based procurement. The U.S. voluntary green power market is undergoing a clear shift toward long-term contracts, driven primarily by increasingly ambitious corporate renewable energy procurement targets.
In support of NASA’s evaluation of its future research thrusts for its hypersonics program, NASA commissioned independent studies of the market for commercial hypersonic transportation. SAIC and BryceTech (formerly Bryce Space and Technology) were awarded one of these independent studies to assist NASA in better understanding: (1) the passenger demand for high-speed aviation travel; (2) the pressures on the business case for developing and operating a hypersonic aircraft for the commercial aviation market; and (3) the non-technical (i.e., societal) barriers and challenges, including the steps NASA and the Government could take to overcome those barriers and challenges. Our approach to addressing these three tasks for NASA included modeling future demand and future business operations, considering global air transportation at speeds of Mach 2 to Mach 7. The team forecast premium air travel demand through 2060 and assessed the willingness of passengers of different income and wealth levels to pay to save time on flights between 800 city pairs. With the total addressable market defined, we examined industry-level business case viability for several aircraft speed and range cases. Considering operating and manufacturing costs for routes that could be serviced profitably, as well as typical profitability targets for the aviation industry, we quantified the level of RDT&E funding available to support each business case.
In support of NASA’s evaluation of its future research thrusts for its hypersonics program, NASA commissioned independent studies of the market for commercial hypersonic transportation. SAIC and BryceTech (formerly Bryce Space and Technology) were awarded one of these independent studies to assist NASA in better understanding: (1) the passenger demand for high-speed aviation travel; (2) the pressures on the business case for developing and operating a hypersonic aircraft for the commercial aviation market; and (3) the non-technical (i.e., societal) barriers and challenges, including the steps NASA and the Government could take to overcome those barriers and challenges. Our approach to addressing these three tasks for NASA included modeling future demand and future business operations, considering global air transportation at speeds of Mach 2 to Mach 7. The team forecast premium air travel demand through 2060 and assessed the willingness of passengers of different income and wealth levels to pay to save time on flights between 800 city pairs. With the total addressable market defined, we examined industry-level business case viability for several aircraft speed and range cases. Considering operating and manufacturing costs for routes that could be serviced profitably, as well as typical profitability targets for the aviation industry, we quantified the level of RDT&E funding available to support each business case.