Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “machine learning, Random Forest”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Source Analysis of Ozone Pollution in Liaoyuan City’s Atmosphere Based on Machine Learning Models and HYSPLIT Clustering Method

Firstly, this study investigates the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the ozone (O 3 ) pollution in Liaoyuan City using monitoring data from 2015 to 2024. Then, three machine learning models (ML)—random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN)—are employed to quantify the influence of meteorological and non-meteorological factors on O 3 concentrations. Finally, the HYSPLIT clustering method and CMAQ model are utilized to analyze inter-regional transport characteristics, identifying the causes of O 3 pollution. The results indicate that O 3 pollution in Liaoyuan exhibits a distinct seasonal pattern, with the highest concentrations found in spring and summer, peaking in the afternoon. Among the three ML models, the random forest model demonstrates the best predictive performance (R 2 = 0.9043). Feature importance identifies NO 2 as the primary driving factor, followed by meteorological conditions in the second quarter and land surface characteristics. Furthermore, regional transport significantly contributes to O 3 pollution, with approximately 80% of air mass trajectories in heavily polluted episodes originating from adjacent industrial areas and the sea. The combined effects of transboundary precursors and O 3 transport with local emissions and meteorological conditions further increase the O 3 pollution level. This study highlights the need to strengthen coordinated NO X and VOCs emission reductions and enhance regional joint prevention and control strategies in China.

HYSPLIT clustering↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of a Random-Forest Cloud-Regime Classification Model Based on Surface Radiation and Cloud Products

Various methods have been developed to characterize cloud type, otherwise referred to as cloud regime. These include manual sky observations, combining radiative and cloud vertical properties observed from satellite, surface-based remote sensing, and digital processing of sky imagers. While each method has inherent advantages and disadvantages, none of these cloud-typing methods actually includes measurements of surface shortwave or longwave radiative fluxes. Here, a method that relies upon detailed, surface-based radiation and cloud measurements and derived data products to train a random-forest machine-learning cloud classification model is introduced. Measurements from five years of data from the ARM Southern Great Plains site were compiled to train and independently evaluate the model classification performance. A cloud-type accuracy of approximately 80% using the random-forest classifier reveals that the model is well suited to predict climatological cloud properties. Furthermore, an analysis of the cloud-type misclassifications is performed. While physical cloud types may be misreported, the shortwave radiative signatures are similar between misclassified cloud types. From this, we assert that the cloud-regime model has the capacity to successfully differentiate clouds with comparable cloud–radiative interactions. Therefore, we conclude that the model can provide useful cloud-property information for fundamental cloud studies, inform renewable energy studies, and be a tool for numerical model evaluation and parameterization improvement, among many other applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

Evaluating Combinations of Sentinel-2 Data and Machine-Learning Algorithms for Mangrove Mapping in West Africa

Creating a national baseline for natural resources, such as mangrove forests, and monitoring them regularly often requires a consistent and robust methodology. With freely available satellite data archives and cloud computing resources, it is now more accessible to conduct such large-scale monitoring and assessment. Yet, few studies examine the reproducibility of such mangrove monitoring frameworks, especially in terms of generating consistent spatial extent. Our objective was to evaluate a combination of image processing approaches to classify mangrove forests along the coast of Senegal and The Gambia. We used freely available global satellite data (Sentinel-2), and cloud computing platform (Google Earth Engine) to run two machine learning algorithms, random forest (RF), and classification and regression trees (CART). We calibrated and validated the algorithms using 800 reference points collected using high-resolution images. We further re-ran 10 iterations for each algorithm, utilizing unique subsets of the initial training data. While all iterations resulted in thematic mangrove maps with over 90% accuracy, the mangrove extent ranges between 827-2807 km2 for Senegal and 245-1271 km2 for The Gambia with one outlier for each country. We further report "Places of Agreement" (PoA) to identify areas where all iterations for both methods agree (506.6 km2 and 129.6 km2 for Senegal and The Gambia, respectively), thus have a high confidence in predicting mangrove extent. While we acknowledge the time- and cost-effectiveness of such methods for the landscape managers, we recommend utilizing them with utmost caution, as well as post-classification on-the-ground checks, especially for decision making.

Mondal, Pinki↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimating Fine-Resolution Shortwave Broadband Albedo of Croplands from Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 Data

Altered surface albedo due to land-cover conversions and management is a significant driver of global climate change. Albedo can be directly measured at ground stations, and remote sensing data can be used to scale-up albedo values to regional and global levels. Some previous studies have retrieved fine-resolution (10–30 m) instantaneous albedo and coarse-resolution (500–1000 m) daily mean albedo from remote sensing data, but they all required the input of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) albedo information at 500-m resolution, and none have assembled both instantaneous and daily albedo based exclusively on fine-resolution satellite data. Here, to address this issue, we compiled 387 instantaneous and 346 daily albedo records using field net radiometer measurements from the bioenergy croplands at the W. K. Kellogg Biological Station in southwest Michigan. We then connected these albedo records with a suite of variables derived from harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 data through two machine learning algorithms (random forest regression and extreme gradient boosting) to retrieve clear-sky instantaneous and daily shortwave broadband albedo. The performance statistics indicate reasonable accuracy of model results [root-mean-square error (RMSE)] around or below 0.03 except for snow-covered surfaces), suggesting that the retrieval of both instantaneous and daily albedo based exclusively on fine-resolution satellite data is promising. To facilitate the use of fine-resolution albedo products at the global level, future efforts need to include more albedo records of diverse surface cover types, as well as to accurately model daily albedo for cloudy days to address the “clear-sky bias.”

Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2↗
DOE OSTI2021

Application of Machine Learning Algorithms to Identify Problematic Nuclear Data

In this work we aim to show that Machine learning algorithms are promising tools for the identification of nuclear data that contribute to increased errors in transport simulations. We demonstrate this through an application of a machine learning algorithm (Random Forest) to the Whisper/MCNP6 criticality validation library to identify nuclear data that are associated with an increase of the bias (simulated - experimental $k_{eff}$) in the calculations. Specifically, the $k_{eff}$ sensitivity profiles (w.r.t. nuclear data) of 233 U solution benchmarks are used to predict the bias and Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) are used to explain how the sensitivities are related to the predicted bias. The SHAP values can be interpreted as sensitivity coefficients of the machine learning model to the $k_{eff}$ sensitivities which are used to make predictions of bias. Using the SHAP values we can identify specific subsets of nuclear data which have the highest probability of influencing bias. We demonstrate the utility of this method by showing how SHAP values were used to identify an inconsistency in the 19 F inelastic scattering nuclear data. The methodology presented here is not limited to transport problems and can be applied to other simulations if there are experimental measurements to compare against, simulations of those experimental measurements, and the ability to calculate sensitivities of the model output with respect to the data inputs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning-based inversion for acoustic impedance with large synthetic training data: Workflow and data characterization

Where wells are sparse or training data are difficult to label with high-quality wireline-derived impedance logs, machine learning (ML)-based inversion of acoustic impedance typically depends on small training data sets, leading to biased prediction. We have advanced a novel workflow that applies large synthetic seismic training data to reduce facies-related bias. Using a geologically realistic model as the truth model, we randomly select sparse seed wells to perform sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) for impedance models of the same geometry and simulate facies variability. We implement random forest regression on 30 features extracted from the synthetic volume. We observe that more seed wells tend to reduce facies-induced bias by sampling more types of facies, resulting in a better prediction. We then focus on the responses of SGS models to facies changes, the number of seed wells necessary for a useful synthetic model, and how much a synthetic model can help ML-based inversion. Here, we observe that the SGS synthetic training model outperforms well-direct training in general. For modeled clastic shore-zone systems in Miocene Gulf of Mexico, two or more seed wells are necessary for a significant reduction of root-mean-square error and outliners, and improvement of facies imaging. In a field-data test, we apply a similar workflow to quantitatively predict acoustic impedance, which is then converted to a sand-volume map at a high-frequency sequence (10–100 m), revealing detailed facies and sandstone patterns. Such results are valuable in many geologic and engineering applications, such as hydrocarbon and CO 2 reservoir prospecting, reserve estimation, simulation, etc.

3D seismic↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep Learning Classification of Cheatgrass Invasion in the Western United States Using Biophysical and Remote Sensing Data

Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) invasion is driving an emerging cycle of increased fire frequency and irreversible loss of wildlife habitat in the western US. Yet, detailed spatial information about its occurrence is still lacking for much of its presumably invaded range. Deep learning (DL) has demonstrated success for remote sensing applications but is less tested on more challenging tasks like identifying biological invasions using sub-pixel phenomena. We compare two DL architectures and the more conventional Random Forest and Logistic Regression methods to improve upon a previous effort to map cheatgrass occurrence at >2% canopy cover. High-dimensional sets of biophysical, MODIS, and Landsat-7 ETM+ predictor variables are also compared to evaluate different multi-modal data strategies. All model configurations improved results relative to the case study and accuracy generally improved by combining data from both sensors with biophysical data. Cheatgrass occurrence is mapped at 30 m ground sample distance (GSD) with an estimated 78.1% accuracy, compared to 250-m GSD and 71% map accuracy in the case study. Furthermore, DL is shown to be competitive with well-established machine learning methods in a limited data regime, suggesting it can be an effective tool for mapping biological invasions and more broadly for multi-modal remote sensing applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Prediction of Aircraft Estimated Time of Arrival Using A Supervised Learning Approach

We present a novel data-driven approach for prediction of the estimated time of arrival (ETA) of aircraft in the terminal area via the implementation of a Random Forest regression model. The model uses data fused from a number of sources (flight track, weather, flight plan information, etc.) and provides predictions for the remaining flight time for aircraft landing at Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) International Airport. The predictions are made when the aircraft is at a distance of 200-miles from the airport. The results show that the model is able to predict estimated time of arrival to within ± 5 min for 90% of the flights in the test data with the mean absolute error being lower at 145 seconds. This paper covers the entire pipeline of data collection, preprocessing, setup and training of the ML model, and the results obtained for DFW.

Machine learning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing the impact of design factors on solar module thermomechanical durability using interpretable machine learning techniques

Solar modules in utility-scale systems are expected to maintain decades of lifetime to rival conventional energy sources. However, cyclic thermomechanical loading often degrades their long-term performance, highlighting the importance of effective design to mitigate thermal expansion mismatches between module materials. Given the complex composition of solar modules, isolating the impact of individual components on overall durability remains a challenging task. In this work, we analyze a comprehensive data set that comprises bill-of-materials (BOM) and thermal cycling power loss from 251 distinct module designs to identify the predominant design factors and their impacts on the thermomechanical durability of modules. The methodology of our analysis combines machine learning modeling (random forest) and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) to correlate design factors with power loss and interpret the model’s decision-making. The interpretation reveals that silicon type (monocrystalline or polycrystalline), encapsulant thickness, busbar numbers, and wafer thickness predominantly influence the degradation. With lower power loss of around 0.6% on average in the SHAP analysis, monocrystalline cells present better durability than polycrystalline cells. This finding is further substantiated by statistical testing on our raw data set. The SHAP analysis also demonstrates that while thicker encapsulants lead to reduced power loss, further increasing their thickness over around 0.6 to 0.7 mm does not yield additional benefits, particularly for the front side one. In addition, other important BOM features such as the number of busbars are analyzed. This study provides a blueprint for utilizing explainable machine learning techniques in a complex material system and can potentially guide future research on optimizing the design of solar modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning Analysis of Impact of Western US Fires on Central US Hailstorms

Fires, including wildfires, harm air quality and essential public services like transportation, communication, and utilities. These fires can also influence atmospheric conditions, including temperature and aerosols, potentially affecting severe convective storms. Here, we investigate the remote impacts of fires in the western United States (WUS) on the occurrence of large hail (size: $\geqslant$ 2.54 cm) in the central US (CUS) over the 20-year period of 2001–20 using the machine learning (ML), Random Forest (RF), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) methods. The developed RF and XGB models demonstrate high accuracy (> 90%) and F1 scores of up to 0.78 in predicting large hail occurrences when WUS fires and CUS hailstorms coincide, particularly in four states (Wyoming, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas). The key contributing variables identified from both ML models include the meteorological variables in the fire region (temperature and moisture), the westerly wind over the plume transport path, and the fire features (i.e., the maximum fire power and burned area). Importantly, the results confirm a linkage between WUS fires and severe weather in the CUS, corroborating the findings of our previous modeling study conducted on case simulations with a detailed physics model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning based algorithms for uncertainty quantification in numerical weather prediction models

Complex numerical weather prediction models incorporate a variety of physical processes, each described by multiple alternative physical schemes with specific parameters. The selection of the physical schemes and the choice of the corresponding physical parameters during model configuration can significantly impact the accuracy of model forecasts. There is no combination of physical schemes that works best for all times, at all locations, and under all conditions. It is therefore of considerable interest to understand the interplay between the choice of physics and the accuracy of the resulting forecasts under different conditions. This paper demonstrates the use of machine learning techniques to study the uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models due to the interaction of multiple physical processes. The first problem addressed herein is the estimation of systematic model errors in output quantities of interest at future times, and the use of this information to improve the model forecasts. The second problem considered is the identification of those specific physical processes that contribute most to the forecast uncertainty in the quantity of interest under specified meteorological conditions. In order to address these questions we employ two machine learning approaches, random forests and artificial neural networks. The discrepancies between model results and observations at past times are used to learn the relationships between the choice of physical processes and the resulting forecast errors. Numerical experiments are carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The output quantity of interest is the model precipitation, a variable that is both extremely important and very challenging to forecast. The physical processes under consideration include various micro-physics schemes, cumulus parameterizations, short wave, and long wave radiation schemes. The experiments demonstrate the strong potential of machine learning approaches to aid the study of model errors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning reveals strong grid-scale dependence in the satellite N d –LWP relationship

The relationship between cloud droplet number concentration ( N d ) and liquid water path (LWP) is highly uncertain yet crucial for determining the impact of aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) on Earth's radiation budget. The N d -LWP relationship is examined using a machine learning (ML) random forest model applied to five years of satellite data at grid resolutions ranging from 10° to 0.05° in 12 distinct regions. In the subtropics, the shape of the N d -LWP relationship switches from an inverted-V at 1° grid-resolution to an “M” shape at 0.1° resolution with decreased $\frac{\textrm{dln⁡LWP}}{\textrm{dln⁡}N_d}$ sensitivity. Tropical and midlatitude regions generally show a more positive sensitivity. Cloud sampling and filtering also influence this slope, wherein the exclusion of thin clouds, as commonly performed to reduce retrieval uncertainty, leads to strongly negative sensitivity across all regions. Precipitation is primarily responsible for driving the strength of the sensitivity, with strong positive slopes in raining clouds and negative and/or neutral responses found in non-raining clouds. A new method to compute radiative forcing from the ML model shows a robust Twomey radiative forcing across all regions and grid resolutions. However, LWP and cloud fraction adjustments to the radiative forcing, which are ∼50 % or smaller than the Twomey effect, decrease to negligible values with higher spatial resolution data. As Earth system models move toward higher spatial resolutions in the future, evaluating the LWP and CF adjustment contributions to the radiative forcing budget at these finer resolutions will be essential for evaluation and model development.

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions↗
DOE OSTI2020

What matters the most? Understanding individual tornado preparedness using machine learning

Scholars from various disciplines have long attempted to identify the variables most closely associated with individual preparedness. Therefore, we now have much more knowledge regarding these factors and their association with individual preparedness behaviors. However, it has not been sufficiently discussed how decisive many of these factors are in encouraging preparedness. In this article, we seek to examine what factors, among the many examined in previous studies, are most central to engendering emergency preparedness in individuals particularly for tornadoes by utilizing a relatively uncommon machine learning technique in disaster management literature. Using unique survey data, we find that in the case of tornado preparedness the most decisive variables are related to personal experiences and economic circumstances rather than basic demographics. Our findings contribute to scholarly endeavors to understand and promote individual tornado preparedness behaviors by highlighting the variables most likely to shape tornado preparedness at an individual level.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Rapid Coal-Ash Characterization using Geophysical Methods & Machine Learning

Coal combustion products (CCP) are challenging to delineate in heterogeneous field settings. Conventional methods (test pits, coring, and laboratory analyses) are labor-intensive, slow, invasive, and provide sparse spatial coverage. This study evaluates whether rapid non-invasive geophysical screening methods—induced polarization (IP), magnetic susceptibility, and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) —combined with surface colorimetry (RGB_24), can discriminate CCP-soil mixtures and provide reliable estimates of CCP content. Laboratory measurements were collected on five CCP-soil mixtures (series) and modeled using (i) a linear baseline, (ii) a calibrated non-linear (power-mean) model, and (iii) a machine-learning (ML) Random Forest approach, with validation via leave-one-series-out and site-specific tests. Across the five series, individual signals—particularly IP and magnetic susceptibility—were strongly predictive of ash content but were consistently outperformed by combined models. The pooled calibrated non-linear and ML models captured the observed non-linearity and achieved high accuracy and precision, improving on linear fits. Colorimetry showed the weakest direct relationship with ash content for the tested samples but improved performance when included in multi-signal models. At pre-selected 3.5% decision threshold, calibrated and ML approaches yielded near-perfect classification (Matthews correlation coefficient ˜ 1), suggesting strong practical operability for field screening. Additionally, field-analog tests highlighted the role of endmembers—accuracy declined without access to end-member measurements but was largely recovered by collecting a minimal labeled pair for local recalibration. With end members, accuracy remained high. Globally trained models performed well on three operational unknowns; however, series-specific refits provided the most accurate predictions. Overall, these results highlight the potential of combining rapid geophysics and minimal local calibration for improved coal-ash delineation.

Peshtani, Klaudio↗
DOE OSTI2022

Automated defect identification in electroluminescence images of solar modules

Solar photovoltaic (PV) modules are susceptible to manufacturing defects, mishandling problems or extreme weather events that can limit energy production or cause early device failure. Trained professionals use electroluminescence (EL) images to identify defects in modules, however, field surveys or inline image acquisition can generate millions of EL images, which are infeasible to analyze by rote inspection. Here, we develop a rapid automatic computer vision pipeline (~0.5 seconds/module) to analyze EL images and identify defects including cracks, intra-cell defects, oxygen-induced defects, and solder disconnections. Defect identification is achieved with a machine learning model (Random Forest, ResNet models and YOLO) trained on 762 manually-labeled EL images of PV modules. We compare model performance on an imbalanced real-world validation set containing 134 EL images and determine that ResNet18 and YOLO are the optimal models; we next evaluated these models on a dedicated testing set (129 module images) with resulting macro F1 scores of 0.83 (ResNet18) and 0.78 (YOLO). Using a field EL survey of a PV power plant damaged in a vegetation fire, we analyze 18,954 EL images (2.4 million cells) and inspect the spatial distribution of defects on the solar modules. The results find increased frequency of ‘crack’, ‘solder’ and ‘intra-cell’ defects on the edges of the solar module closest to the ground after fire. We also find an abnormal increase of striation rings on cells which were assumed to be caused mainly in fabrication process. Our methods are published as open-source software. It can also be used to identify other kinds of defects or process different types of solar cells with minor modification on models by transfer learning.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Material Design Principles for Calcium-Ion Mobility in Intercalation Cathodes

Multivalent-ion batteries offer an alternative to Li-based technologies, with the potential for greater sustainability, improved safety, and higher energy density, primarily due to their rechargeable system featuring a passivating metal anode. Although a system based on the Ca 2+ /Ca couple is particularly attractive given the low electrochemical plating potential of Ca 2+ , the remaining challenge for a viable rechargeable Ca battery is to identify Ca cathodes with fast ion transport. In this work, a high-throughput computational pipeline is adapted to (1) discover novel Ca cathodes in a largely unexplored space of empty intercalation hosts and (2) develop material design rules for Ca-ion mobility. One candidate from the screening, W 2 O 3 (PO 4 ) 2 , is confirmed to have a low Nudged Elastic Band (NEB) barrier of 168 meV within a one-dimensional (1D) ion percolation topology. This candidate is subsequently synthesized and electrochemically tested, achieving reversible Ca cycling with a capacity of 25 mA h/g. To further accelerate the screening for promising Ca intercalation electrodes, machine learning (ML) Random Forest (RF) and Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) classification models are created with local environment descriptors based on a large, structurally and chemically diverse dataset of minimum energy pathways, spanning over 5,000 density functional theory (DFT) site energy calculations. Accuracies of 92% are achieved, material design metrics are quantified, ML force-fields are leveraged in an accelerated iteration of the screening, and a total of 27 novel Ca cathode materials are highlighted for further investigation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting the Activity and Selectivity of Bimetallic Metal Catalysts for Ethanol Reforming using Machine Learning

Machine learning is ideally suited for the pattern detection in large uniform datasets, but consistent experimental datasets on catalyst studies are often small. Here we demonstrate how a combination of machine learning and first-principles calculations can be used to extract knowledge from a relatively small set of experimental data. The approach is based on combining a complex machine-learning model trained on an extensive computational library of transition-state energies with simple linear regression models of experimental catalytic activities and selectivities from the literature. Using the combined model, we identify the key C–C bond scission reactions involved in ethanol reforming and perform a computational screening for ethanol reforming on monolayer bimetallic catalysts with architectures TM-Pt-Pt(111) and Pt-TM-Pt(111) (TM = 3d transition metals). The model also predicts four promising catalyst compositions for future experimental studies. In conclusion, the approach is not limited to ethanol reforming but is of general use for the interpretation of experimental observations as well as for the computational discovery of novel catalytic materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗