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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Unconventional Wells Interference: Supervised Machine Learning for Detecting Fracture Hits

The primary objective of the study was development of a machine learning (ML)-based workflow for fracture hit (“frac hit”) detection and monitoring using shale oil-field data such as drilling surveys, production history (oil and produced water), pressure, and fracking start time and duration records. The ML method takes advantage of long short-term memory (LSTM) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks to identify the frac hits due to hydraulic communication between the fracking child well(s) and the producing parent well(s) within the same pad (intra-pad interaction) and/or on different pads (inter-pad interaction). It utilizes time series of pressure and production data from within a pad and from adjacent pads. The workflow can capture time variable features of frac hits when the model architecture is deep and wide enough, with enough trainable parameters for deep learning and feature extraction, as demonstrated in this paper by using training and testing subsets of the field data from selected neighboring pads with over a couple of hundred wells. The study was focused on frac-hit interaction among paired wells and demonstrated that the ML model, once trained, can predict the frac-hit probability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Overview of RFID Applications Utilizing Neural Networks

As Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) methods continue to evolve to higher levels of complexity, one form of machine learning is making its appearance. The use of Neural Networks (NN) in the RFID field is steadily increasing, and in the fields of localization and activity recognition, promising results are being shown from a variety of research. RFID applications fall primarily under two types of problems including regression and classification. We analyze RIFD localization techniques which fall under regression, and activity recognition which falls under classification. Many works don’t classify themselves as activity recognition methods, but because they fall under the classification category, we still consider them as activity recognition techniques. This research overviews the Neural Network models in the localization field based on whether they can perform independently of the environment in which they were tested. For activity recognition and accessory fields, the major methods involve tag-based and tag-free approaches. In conclusion, after the models are surveyed, a comparison study is given to examine what may be the cause for increased accuracy between different Neural Network models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dataset for "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification" Willard et al. (2025).

This data release provides all data and code used in the paper " "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantifications" Willard et al. (2025)" to model stream temperature, evaluate, and assess results. The associated manuscript explores the effect of different ensemble construction techniques across different common machine learning (ML) architectures for predictions in unmonitored basins. Modeling was done using long short-term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU), temporal convolution network (TCN), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models, and stream site coverage spans 1362 locations across the conterminous United States. The ensemble construction techniques investigated include ensemble by random weight initialization, differing hyperparameters, different random subsets of training data, different subselections of input features, different architectures, and Monte Carlo Dropout. The data is organized into these items items:Code repository and data for the paper " "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantifications" Willard et al. (2025).Code: stream_temp_ml_regionalization.zip contains the code repositoryData to run the code:- data_dir.zip -- contains all files that should be moved to the "DATA_DIR" variable defined in the "set_env_vars.sh" script in the code repository- metadata_dir.zip -- contains all files that should be moved to the "METADATA_DIR" variable defined in the "set_env_vars.sh" script in the code repositoryData produced by the code and used in the paper:- outputs_dir.zip - contains model output and results (outputs_dir/results), model weights (outputs_dir/models), and all other outputs used for the paper including feature importances.To cite this code, please use the following BibTeX or MLA entries:bibtex:@misc{willard2025streamensembles,author = {Jared Willard and Charuleka Varadharajan},title = {Dataset for "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification"},year = {2024},doi = {10.15485/2527393},publisher = {ESS-DIVE Repository},url = {https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/2527393}}MLA: Willard, Jared, et al. Dataset for "Machine Learning Ensembles Can Enhance Hydrologic Predictions and Uncertainty Quantification". 2025. ESS-DIVE Repository, doi:10.15485/2448016.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Wireless Patch Antenna Characterization for Live Health Monitoring Using Machine Learning

Temperature monitoring in extreme environments, such as coal-fired power plants, was addressed by designing and testing wireless patch antennas for use in machine learning-aided temperature estimation. The sensors were designed to monitor the temperature and health of boiler systems. Wireless interrogation of the sensor was performed using a Vector Network Analyzer (VNA) and a pair of interrogation antennas to capture resonance behavior under varying thermal and spatial conditions with sensitivities ranging from 0.052 to 0.20 $\frac{𝑀𝐻𝑧}{°C}$. Sensor calibration was conducted using a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model, which leveraged temporal patterns to account for hysteresis effects. The calibration method demonstrated improved performance when combined with an LSTM model, achieving up to a 76% improvement in temperature estimation error when compared with Linear Regression (LR). The experiments highlighted an innovative solution for patch antenna-based non-contact temperature measurement, which addresses limitations with conventional methods such as RFID-based systems, infrared, and thermocouples.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Graph Representation Learning for Dengue Forecasting

In 2017, the largest recorded dengue outbreak in Sri Lanka’s history occurred. Since then, dengue has continued to threaten national health across Sri Lanka. The development of an effective Early Warning System (EWS) for dengue outbreaks is essential for Sri Lanka’s Ministry of Health to take preventative measures. We propose the use of Graph Neural Networks as EWS. Using earth observational data from NASAs global satellites and dengue incidence data from Sri Lanka s Ministry of Health, we developed a series of traditional and graph representation EWS to forecast Dengue cases across Sri Lanka’s 25 districts between 2013 and 2022. We demonstrate empirically that Graph Neural Networks which incorporate spatiotemporal relations significantly outperform traditional EWS such as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Random Forest, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). Our source code is available on GitHub and will be provided in the final submission.

Graph Neural Networks↗
DOE OSTI2025

Online thermal profile prediction for large format additive manufacturing: A hybrid CNN-LSTM based approach

Large format additive manufacturing (LFAM) is an advanced 3D printing technique that efficiently fabricates large-scale components through a layer-by-layer extrusion and deposition process. Accurate surface layer temperature monitoring is essential to prevent manufacturing failures and ensure final product quality. Traditional physics-based offline approaches for simulating thermal behavior are often inefficient and complex, posing challenges on real-time, in-situ monitoring. Here, to address this, we propose a data-driven hybrid CNN-LSTM model to predict sequential thermal images of arbitrary length using real-time infrared thermal imaging. In this approach, a Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) is trained offline to capture spatial features, reduce dimensional complexity, and enhance time efficiency, while a stacked Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is applied online to capture temporal information for improved prediction of future thermal behavior in subsequent printing layers. Model performance is evaluated using MSE, SSIM, and PSNR metrics and is benchmarked against stacked LSTM and convolutional LSTM models, demonstrating superior accuracy and applicability. Additionally, to mitigate noise from moving extruders and gantry backgrounds in thermal images, a fine-tuned semantic segmentation model is implemented offline to extract printing geometry, enabling precise temperature tracking along the tool path for further thermal analysis. The frameworks developed in this study significantly advance temperature monitoring, thermal analysis, and in-situ manufacturing control for LFAM, bridging the gap between theoretical modeling and practical application.

Geometry extraction↗
DOE OSTI2025

$\mathrm{SageNet}$: Fast Neural Network Emulation of the Stiff-amplified Gravitational Waves from Inflation

Accurate modeling of the inflationary gravitational waves (GWs) requires time-consuming, iterative numerical integrations of differential equations to take into account their backreaction on the expansion history. To improve computational efficiency while preserving accuracy, we present the Stiff-amplified Gravitational-wave Emulator Network (SageNet), a deep learning framework designed to replace conventional numerical solvers (code available at https://github.com/YifangLuo/SageNet). SageNet employs a long short-term memory architecture to emulate the present-day energy density spectrum of the inflationary GWs with possible stiff amplification, Ω GW (f). Trained on a data set of 25,689 numerically generated solutions, SageNet allows accurate reconstructions of Ω GW (f) and generalizes well to a wide range of cosmological parameters; 90.9% of the test emulations with randomly distributed parameters exhibit errors of under 4%. In addition, SageNet demonstrates its ability to learn and reproduce the artificial, adaptive sampling patterns in numerical calculations, which implement denser sampling of frequencies around changes in spectral indices in Ω GW (f). The dual capability of learning both physical and artificial features of the numerical GW spectra establishes SageNet as a robust alternative to exact numerical methods. Finally, our benchmark tests show that SageNet reduces the computation time from tens of seconds to milliseconds, achieving a speedup of ∼10 4 times over standard CPU-based numerical solvers with the potential for further acceleration on GPU hardware. These capabilities make SageNet a powerful tool for accelerating Bayesian inference procedures for extended cosmological models. In a broad sense, the SageNet framework offers a fast, accurate, and generalizable solution to modeling cosmological observables whose theoretical predictions demand costly differential equation solvers.

Astronomy data modeling↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Fast Machine Learning Lidar Surrogate Simulator: Pristine Clear Sky

The simulations of lidar signals and retrievals rely on a range of optic-physical models, such as radiative transfer models, particle scattering and absorption models, along with the output data from atmospheric physical models. Integrating these different models to represent signals of a lidar system is computationally expensive, and performing backward retrievals can be complex and ambiguous. However, with the advantages of Machine Learning, there is a new potential for building effective lidar signal database linked to corresponding atmospheric profiles. For this project, we are developing a fast pre-trained neural network as the lidar surrogate simulator using simulated data for a CALIPSO-like lidar (355 nm, 532nm, and 1064nm), and a CO2 differential absorption lidar (DIAL) near 1571nm. Specifically, we utilize a long short-term memory (LSTM) model to map the relationships between atmospheric profiles (pressure, temperature, air density and CO2 mixing ratio) and lidar signals. This approach allows us to build machine learning based simulators that can reconstruct lidar signals at specific bands from MERRA reanalysis data, and perform retrievals of atmospheric profiles using lidar signals at various wavelengths. As a first step, the results show the potential of this method to establish a foundational model for sensor signals. This model offers the promise of enabling both accurate predictions and rapid retrievals, providing a more efficient approach to signal processing and analysis.

Shan Zeng↗
DOE OSTI2025

Monte Carlo Dropout Uncertainty Quantification of Long Short-Term Memory Autoencoder Anomaly Detection in a Liquid Sodium Cold Trap

Advanced high-temperature fluid reactors, such as sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs) and molten salt–cooled reactors (MSCRs), require coolant purification systems to prevent fluid contamination and local freezing that can lead to plugging. Liquid sodium purification can be achieved with a cold trap, where the sodium temperature is reduced to a near-freezing point to precipitate out impurities. Automation of monitoring of the cold trap performance with machine learning algorithms can aid in early detection of incipient anomalies. An efficient approach to loss-of-coolant–type anomaly detection in a cold trap monitored with more than two dozen thermal-hydraulic sensors consists of a long short-term memory (LSTM) autoencoder. This work develops the uncertainty quantification of the LSTM autoencoder performance for cold trap anomaly detection using the Monte Carlo (MC) dropout method. The MC dropout methodology creates a distribution of sister distributions that all slightly differ from each other because of random neurons being turned off for testing. The variances of the sister network distributions are used to make an uncertainty interval. Our analysis shows that the uncertainty in the autoencoder performance is largest near the peak of the anomaly signal. Using the MC dropout method, we investigate the uncertainty in the anomaly detection with missing sensor inputs. This capability allows the reactor operator to evaluate resilience of the anomaly detection system and to make informed decisions about continuity of operation in the event of sensor failure.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Day-Ahead Forecasting with Federated LSTM to Plan Energy Sharing in a Community Microgrid

Energy balancing in microgrids is a key enabler of resilience. Community microgrids located close to each other have the added benefit of networking and sharing surplus energy, if available. Such complex decision-making runs on optimization that requires reliable short-term (up to very-short-term) forecasts of energy generation and consumption for scheduling or trading. Each microgrid may also opt to not expose their sensitive data such as consumption patterns of individual businesses or residences. This paper investigates a federated approach to dayahead forecasting that trains naive long short-term memory (LSTM) at each business in a microgrid and aggregates weights at the microgrid controller using proximal regularization. This approach ensures that the controller has access only to energy surplus/deficit and not the actual generation or consumption values, avoiding unwanted exposure of sensitive data. A community microgrid in Adjuntas, Puerto Rico with 3 businesses is selected as a case study with a laboratory-scale computing setup. A central LSTM forecaster, where sensitive data from businesses are aggregated at the controller, is implemented as a baseline for qualifying the results. This work serves as a proof-of-concept for scaling the approach to networked and nested microgrids with more complex control options.

Sundararajan, Aditya [ORNL] (ORCID:000000033577854↗
DOE OSTI2026

Protonic nickelate device networks for spatiotemporal neuromorphic computing

Computation in biological neural circuits arises from the interplay of nonlinear temporal responses and spatially distributed dynamic network interactions. Replicating this richness in hardware has remained challenging, as most neuromorphic devices emulate only isolated neuron- or synapse-like functions. Here we introduce an integrated neuromorphic computing platform in which both nonlinear spatiotemporal processing and programmable memory are realized within a single perovskite nickelate material system. By engineering symmetric and asymmetric hydrogenated NdNiO 3 junction devices on the same wafer, we combine ultrafast, proton-mediated transient dynamics with stable multilevel resistance states. Networks of symmetric NdNiO 3 junctions exhibit emergent spatial interactions mediated by proton redistribution, while each node simultaneously provides short-term temporal memory, enabling nanosecond-scale operation with an energy cost of ~0.2 nJ per input. When interfaced with asymmetric output units serving as reconfigurable long-term weights, these networks allow both feature transformation and linear classification in the same material system. Leveraging these emergent interactions, the platform enables real-time pattern recognition and achieves high accuracy in spoken digit classification and early seizure detection, outperforming temporal-only or uncoupled architectures. These results position protonic nickelates as a compact, energy-efficient, CMOS-compatible platform that integrates processing and memory for scalable intelligent hardware.

Electrical and electronic engineering↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying Transfer Learning for Street-Scale Nuisance Flood Forecasting in Coastal-Urban Cities

An important challenge with Machine Learning (ML) is its transferability; that is, whether a ML model trained on one set of data can be applied to a second set of data without requiring a full re-training of the model. Transfer Learning (TL) addresses this challenge by transferring knowledge learned in the source domain (the data it was trained on) to the target domain (a second set of data that is statistically different but related, which the model was not trained on). This study investigates the use of TL for street-scale nuisance flood forecasting by exploring whether a ML model trained on data collected for one set of streets can effectively forecast flooding for another set of streets in the same city using TL. The envisioned use case is a city deploying a new flood depth monitoring sensor on a street and using TL to apply a ML model, trained on sensor data from an existing flood depth sensor network, to this new street. Eventually, the new flood depth sensor will have a sufficient dataset for training its own ML model, but TL can be used to fill the gap in time while this new dataset is being generated. This method is explored using a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model trained on data for the flood-prone streets of Norfolk City, Virginia. The data used for training includes environmental time series (rainfall, tide), topographic features (Digital Elevation Model (DEM), Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Depth To Water (DTW)), and street-scale flood depth time series obtained from a high-fidelity physics-based model, acting as a synthetic street-scale stream depth sensor dataset since actual stream depth sensor data is generally unavailable for most cities. A set of 180 flood-prone streets was used to train a base model, while another set of 180 flood-prone streets was used to re-train that model using different TL strategies. The results show that full-weight re-training proved most effective and minimal re-training of only the output layer was insufficient. The advantage of TL was most pronounced when target data was limited, meaning data collected at the new water depth sensor location included generally less than 18 flood events. As target data increased beyond 18 flood events, the benefit of TL diminished relative to training a ML model directly on the local flood events. These findings can assist cities as they implement street-scale flood sensing systems to create accurate forecasts for new sensing locations that do not yet have sufficient data records to train a local ML model.

Roy, Binata [Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, V↗
DOE OSTI2024

Design, Detection, and Countermeasure of Frequency Spectrum Attack and Its Impact on Long Short-Term Memory Load Forecasting and Microgrid Energy Management

This paper introduces a frequency-domain false data injection attack called Frequency Spectrum Attack (FSA) and explores its effects on load forecasting and the energy management system (EMS) in a microgrid. The FSA analyzes time-series signals in the frequency domain to identify patterns in their frequency spectrum. It learns the distribution of dominant frequencies in a dataset of healthy signals. Subsequently, it manipulates the amplitudes of dominant frequencies within this healthy distribution, ensuring a stealthy attack against statistical analysis of the signal spectrum. We evaluated the performance of FSA on LSTM, a state-of-the-art network for load forecasting. The results show that FSA can triple the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of predictions compared to the normal case and increase it by 70% compared to noise injection attacks. Furthermore, FSA indirectly enhances battery utilization in the EMS by 45%. We then proposed a detection method that combines statistical analysis and machine-learning-based classification techniques with features. The model effectively distinguishes FSA from healthy and noisy signals, achieving an accuracy of 98.7% and an F1-score of 98.1% on a load dataset, covering healthy, FSA, and noisy load data. Finally, a countermeasure was introduced based on the statistical analysis of the frequency spectrum of healthy signals to mitigate the impact of FSA. This countermeasure successfully reduces the MAE of the attacked model from 0.135 to 0.053, validating its effectiveness in mitigating FSA.

Nazeri, Amirhossein↗
DOE OSTI2024

A dynamic solvent chamber propagation estimation framework using RNN for warm solvent injection in heterogeneous reservoirs

Warm solvent injection (WSI), injecting low-temperature solvent into formations to reduce the viscosity of heavy oil, is a clean technology for heavy oil production through reducing greenhouse gas emissions and water usage. The success of WSI operation depends on the uniform development and propagation of solvent chambers in reservoirs. However, reservoir heterogeneity stemming from shale barriers plays a detrimental role in the conformance of solvent chamber development and oil production rate. In this work, we developed a novel recurrent neural network (RNN)-based framework with the capability of efficiently tracking and estimating the solvent chamber positions in heterogeneous reservoirs based on only production time-series data. The developed estimation model utilizes the “sequence-to-sequence" mapping methodology to correlate observed production time-series sequence and solvent chamber edge sequence via a long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm. The trained RNN models exhibit high accuracy, evidenced by the predicted dynamic solvent chamber locations match the corresponding true locations from numerical simulation, with a high coefficient of determination (R 2 ) and a low mean squared error. Specifically, the achieved R 2 values exceed 0.98 on both the training and testing data. The developed RNN-based workflow was tested via several cases from both regularly- and irregularly-shaped shale barriers, and the results were promising. The predicted solvent chambers showed strong agreement with those obtained from numerical simulations. The major benefits of this workflow include reducing computational time and saving overall monitoring and tracking costs for conventional techniques. In conclusion, the present work would provide a good demonstration of the capability of practical integration of machine learning methods in solving engineering problems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing 2D hydrodynamic flood models through machine learning and urban drainage integration

Two-dimensional hydrodynamic flood models are commonly employed for simulating flood extent and inundation depth. However, the influence of urban drainage network (UDN) is frequently overlooked in these models, potentially compromising their accuracy. Furthermore, the expensive computational costs and longer processing times make them challenging for large-scale hydrodynamic simulation. To address these challenges, this paper develops a machine learning (ML)-driven emulator for an open-source flood model, the Two-dimensional Runoff Inundation Toolkit for Operational Needs (TRITON). A TRITON-ML Emulator (TR-Emulator) that utilizes Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory is developed to capture the spatiotemporal features of flood events based on the outputs from TRITON. We further enhance the emulator by integrating UDN parameters (TR-UDN), such as the flow capacity of drainage pipes, pipe size, and pipe length, via an ML stacking technique to improve the water surface elevation (WSE) simulation. Hurricane Harvey 2017 in Houston, TX is used as the case study. We compare WSE results from TRITON, TR-Emulator, TR-UDN, and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) observations to evaluate the performance of these models. The results indicate that the TR-Emulator effectively replicates the WSE simulated by TRITON. Additionally, TR-UDN performs well in capturing WSE patterns and peak flows, aligning more closely with USGS observations, except in areas with milder slopes where conveyance discrepancies are observed. We further test the generalizability of our ML-based models using another smaller event. This paper shows that the TR-Emulator is effective for users and engineers to emulate a 2D hydrodynamic model, and the enhanced version of the TR-Emulator, TR-UDN, can be an efficient tool for predicting WSEs during urban flooding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Securing Smart Manufacturing: Detection of Cyber-Physical Attacks in CNC-Based Systems

As Industry 4.0 advances, the integration of computer numerical control (CNC) machines and advanced manufacturing technologies is transforming production into smart manufacturing systems that blend physical and digital processes as cyber-physical systems. However, this increased cyber-physical connectivity exposes manufacturing systems to cyber threats that can cause severe operational and financial disruptions. This paper presents a comparative study on cyber attacks and anomaly detection techniques in manufacturing, focusing on network traffic from CNC machines. The data extracted from network packets includes machine commands and control signals exchanged between the machine's interface and control system, crucial for maintaining operational integrity. We explore two types of cyber attacks, design modification and command injection, which pose substantial risks to CNC machine productivity and system integrity. Our investigation involves experiments on a real CNC system, highlighting the urgent need for effective detection mechanisms. To address these threats, we evaluate three anomaly detection methods: dynamic time warping (DTW), rolling average, and a deep learning, long short-term memory (LSTM) time-series-based autoencoder. Each is assessed for its effectiveness in identifying anomalous behaviors caused by the attacks. Our findings demonstrate the unique strengths and limitations of each detection technique, providing a deeper understanding of their applicability in realworld manufacturing environments. The comparative analysis indicates that while certain methods are highly effective against specific attack types, others offer broader applicability across different attacks. This study contributes to the accurate detection of anomalies in CNC machining processes, thereby enhancing the reliability and security of smart manufacturing systems against diverse cyber threats.

Williams, Bethanie [Tennessee Technological Univer↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-Informed Recurrent Neural Networks to Predict Reactor Operations of the AGN-201 Nuclear Reactor

4 page paper submitted to ANS Student conference. Summary of paper similar to the following abstract: The ability to predict how a reactor will operate, understand when anomalous conditions arise, and ensure a reactor is being operated as expected is crucial for deploying new nuclear facilities. Digital twins serve as a unique solution to recognizing reactor behavior; however, they require data to be useful. For next-generation reactors, this data may not currently be available. To explore how synthetic physics-informed reactor data can be used to predict reactor operations, a recurrent neural network was implemented for the Idaho State University AGN-201 digital twin. The goal of this work is to determine how synthetic data can be used to train a recurrent neural network model for predicting the reactor power of the AGN-201. The recurrent neural network was validated using both synthetic and real operational data. We envision this approach will help bridge the gap between the virtual and physical sides of a digital twin, where reactor physics models based on as-built data can be corrected for actual operating parameters to ensure the virtual model mirrors reality.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic data-driven multiscale modeling for predicting the degradation of a 316L stainless steel nuclear cladding material

Here, we have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗