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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

The DESI DR1 peculiar velocity survey: growth rate measurements from the maximum likelihood fields method

We present the constraint on the growth rate of structure from the combination of DESI DR1 BGS sample, Fundamental Plane, and Tully-Fisher peculiar velocity catalogues using the maximum likelihood fields method. The combined catalogue contains 415,523 galaxy redshifts and 76,616 peculiar velocity measurements. To handle the large amount of data in the DESI DR1 peculiar velocity catalogue, we significantly improve the computational efficiency by rewriting the algorithm with JAX. After removing outliers and Tully-Fisher galaxies that are affected by systematics, we find fσ 8 = 0.483 -0.043 +0.080 (stat) ± 0.018(sys), consistent within 1σ with the power spectrum and correlation function analysis using the same dataset. Combining all three measurements with appropriate correlations, the consensus measurement is fσ 8 (z eff = 0.07) = 0.450±0.055, consistent with Planck +ΛCDM cosmology (fσ 8 = 0.449±0.008). Combining with the high redshift growth rate of structure measurements from DESI ShapeFit, the constraint on the growth index is γ = 0.58±0.11, consistent with GR.

cosmic flows↗
DOE OSTI2021

A composite likelihood approach for inference under photometric redshift uncertainty

ABSTRACT Obtaining accurately calibrated redshift distributions of photometric samples is one of the great challenges in photometric surveys like LSST, Euclid, HSC, KiDS, and DES. We present an inference methodology that combines the redshift information from the galaxy photometry with constraints from two-point functions, utilizing cross-correlations with spatially overlapping spectroscopic samples, and illustrate the approach on CosmoDC2 simulations. Our likelihood framework is designed to integrate directly into a typical large-scale structure and weak lensing analysis based on two-point functions. We discuss efficient and accurate inference techniques that allow us to scale the method to the large samples of galaxies to be expected in LSST. We consider statistical challenges like the parametrization of redshift systematics, discuss and evaluate techniques to regularize the sample redshift distributions, and investigate techniques that can help to detect and calibrate sources of systematic error using posterior predictive checks. We evaluate and forecast photometric redshift performance using data from the CosmoDC2 simulations, within which we mimic a DESI-like spectroscopic calibration sample for cross-correlations. Using a combination of spatial cross-correlations and photometry, we show that we can provide calibration of the mean of the sample redshift distribution to an accuracy of at least 0.002(1 + z), consistent with the LSST-Y1 science requirements for weak lensing and large-scale structure probes.

(cosmology:) large-scale structure of Universe↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measuring the thermal and ionization state of the low- z IGM using likelihood free inference

ABSTRACT We present a new approach to measure the power-law temperature density relationship $T=T_0 (\rho/ \bar{\rho })^{\gamma -1}$ and the UV background photoionization rate $\Gamma _{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}$ of the intergalactic medium (IGM) based on the Voigt profile decomposition of the Ly α forest into a set of discrete absorption lines with Doppler parameter b and the neutral hydrogen column density $N_{\rm H\, {\small I}}$. Previous work demonstrated that the shape of the $b-N_{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}$ distribution is sensitive to the IGM thermal parameters T0 and γ, whereas our new inference algorithm also takes into account the normalization of the distribution, i.e. the line-density dN/dz, and we demonstrate that precise constraints can also be obtained on $\Gamma _{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}$. We use density-estimation likelihood-free inference (DELFI) to emulate the dependence of the $b-N_{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}$ distribution on IGM parameters trained on an ensemble of 624 nyx hydrodynamical simulations at z = 0.1, which we combine with a Gaussian process emulator of the normalization. To demonstrate the efficacy of this approach, we generate hundreds of realizations of realistic mock HST/COS data sets, each comprising 34 quasar sightlines, and forward model the noise and resolution to match the real data. We use this large ensemble of mocks to extensively test our inference and empirically demonstrate that our posterior distributions are robust. Our analysis shows that by applying our new approach to existing Ly α forest spectra at z ≃ 0.1, one can measure the thermal and ionization state of the IGM with very high precision ($\sigma _{\log T_0} \sim 0.08$ dex, σγ ∼ 0.06, and $\sigma _{\log \Gamma _{{{{\rm H\, {\small I}}}}{}}} \sim 0.07$ dex).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dark energy survey year 3 results: likelihood-free, simulation-based w CDM inference with neural compression of weak-lensing map statistics

We present simulation-based cosmological wcold dark matter (wCDM) inference using dark energy survey year 3 weak-lensing maps, via neural data compression of weak-lensing map summary statistics: power spectra, peak counts, and direct map-level compression/inference with convolutional neural networks (CNN). Using simulation-based inference, also known as likelihood-free or implicit inference, we use forward-modelled mock data to estimate posterior probability distributions of unknown parameters. This approach allows all statistical assumptions and uncertainties to be propagated through the forward-modelled mock data; these include sky masks, non-Gaussian shape noise, shape measurement bias, source galaxy clustering, photometric redshift uncertainty, intrinsic galaxy alignments, non-Gaussian density fields, neutrinos, and non-linear summary statistics. We include a series of tests to validate our inference results. This paper also describes the Gower Street simulation suite: 791 full-sky pkdgrav3 dark matter simulations, with cosmological model parameters sampled with a mixed active-learning strategy, from which we construct over 3000 mock dark energy survey lensing data sets. For wCDM inference, for which we allow –1 < w < –$\frac{1}{3}$⁠, our most constraining result uses power spectra combined with map-level (CNN) inference. Using gravitational lensing data only, this map-level combination gives Ω m = 0.283$^{+0.020}_{–0.027}$⁠, S 8 = 0.804$^{+0.025}_{–0.017⁠}$, and w < –0.80 (with a 68 per cent credible interval); compared to the power spectrum inference, this is more than a factor of two improvement in dark energy parameter (Ω⁠ DE , w⁠) precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inverse Design of Two-Dimensional Airfoils Using Conditional Generative Models and Surrogate Log-Likelihoods

Abstract This paper shows how to use conditional generative models in two-dimensional (2D) airfoil optimization to probabilistically predict good initialization points within the vicinity of the optima given the input boundary conditions, thus warm starting and accelerating further optimization. We accommodate the possibility of multiple optimal designs corresponding to the same input boundary condition and take this inversion ambiguity into account when designing our prediction framework. To this end, we first employ the conditional formulation of our previous work BézierGAN–Conditional BézierGAN (CBGAN)—as a baseline, then introduce its sibling conditional entropic BézierGAN (CEBGAN), which is based on optimal transport regularized with entropy. Compared with CBGAN, CEBGAN overcomes mode collapse plaguing conventional GANs, improves the average lift-drag (Cl/Cd) efficiency of airfoil predictions from 80.8% of the optimal value to 95.8%, and meanwhile accelerates the training process by 30.7%. Furthermore, we investigate the unique ability of CEBGAN to produce a log-likelihood lower bound that may help select generated samples of higher performance (e.g., aerodynamic performance). In addition, we provide insights into the performance differences between these two models with low-dimensional toy problems and visualizations. These results and the probabilistic formulation of this inverse problem justify the extension of our GAN-based inverse design paradigm to other inverse design problems or broader inverse problems.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of the top quark mass using a profile likelihood approach with the lepton + jets final states in proton–proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}=13\,\text {Te}\hspace{-.08em}\text {V}$

The mass of the top quark is measured in 36.3 fb -1 of LHC proton–proton collision data collected with the CMS detector at $\sqrt{s}=13\,\text {Te}\hspace{-.08em}\text {V}$. The measurement uses a sample of top quark pair candidate events containing one isolated electron or muon and at least four jets in the final state. For each event, the mass is reconstructed from a kinematic fit of the decay products to a top quark pair hypothesis. A profile likelihood method is applied using up to four observables per event to extract the top quark mass. The top quark mass is measured to be 171.77 ± 0.37 GeV. This approach significantly improves the precision over previous measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the Effectiveness of Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test Detector Schemes in Seismic Event Detection and the Avoidance of Nontarget Signals

Cross-correlation techniques have played a long-standing and pivotal role in seismic event monitoring. However, the performance of correlation-based detectors is challenged by nuisance seismicity, or nontarget signals. Such detections are a problem when the mission is to automatically map events to the correct source region. Using aftershocks of the 2014 $M_w$ 6.0 South Napa, California, earthquake, we demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing a dynamic correlation processor framework in a generalized likelihood ratio test (GLRT) detector configuration to minimize nontarget detections. A GLRT maximizes a detection statistic with respect to one or more unknown parameters. In this case, the detection statistic is a template signal match against the waveform in a window sliding over a data stream, and the unknown parameter is an index variable indicating group membership of the template event or events. Detected events are assigned to the event group that yields the largest detection statistic. In this work, our results show that a GLRT detector will outperform a suite of independently operating correlation and subspace detectors in terms of having a lower nontarget detection rate at a given missed detection rate. We also show that a GLRT detector composed of a few high-rank subspace detectors has a slightly higher nontarget detection rate, but a significantly lower missed detection rate, than a GLRT detector composed of many low-rank subspace detectors. The high-rank GLRT configuration produced impressive results even with marginal data (single channel, single station, and very low time bandwidth product), which bodes well for the utility of building efficient aftershock classification systems and global monitoring systems at larger scales. However, future work is required to assess performance at the regional scale and to assess the performance of the system at detecting target events not used in the detector template creation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Latent-Variable Formulation of the Poisson Canonical Polyadic Tensor Model: Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Fisher Information

We establish parameter inference for the Poisson canonical polyadic (PCP) tensor model through a latent-variable formulation. Our approach exploits the observation that any random PCP tensor can be derived by marginalizing an unobservable random tensor of one dimension larger. The loglikelihood of this larger dimensional tensor, referred to as the “complete” loglikelihood, is comprised of multiple rank one PCP loglikelihoods. Using this methodology, we first derive maximum likelihood estimators for the PCP model and demonstrate that several existing algorithms for fitting non-negative matrix and tensor factorizations are Expectation-Maximization algorithms. Next, we derive the observed and expected Fisher information matrices for the PCP model. The Fisher information provides us crucial insights into the well-posedness of the tensor model, such as the role that tensor rank plays in identifiability and indeterminacy. For the special case of rank one PCP models, we demonstrate that these results are greatly simplified.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Likelihood-Based Particle Identification in SBND

Accurate particle identification is crucial in any high-energy physics experiment, allowing scientists to understand the unique interactions and mechanisms at play in a detector. In this project, I develop and study a likelihood-based particle identification (PID) algorithm for the Short-Baseline Near Detector, which offers a more physically motivated strategy for PID.

Vanderwaal, Sophia [U. Alabama, Huntsville]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Red Noise–based False Alarm Thresholds for Astrophysical Periodograms via Whittle’s Approximation to the Likelihood

Astronomers who search for periodic signals using Lomb–Scargle periodograms rely on false alarm level (FAL) estimates to identify statistically significant peaks. Although FALs are often calculated from white noise models, many astronomical time series suffer from red noise. Prewhitening is a statistical technique in which a continuum model is subtracted from the log power spectrum estimate, after which the observer can proceed with a white-noise treatment. Here we present a prewhitening-based method of calculating frequency-dependent FALs. We fit power laws and autoregressive models of order 1 to each Lomb–Scargle periodogram by minimizing the Whittle approximation to the negative log-likelihood (NLL), then calculate FALs based on the best-fit model power spectrum. Our technique is a novel extension of the Whittle NLL to datasets with uneven time sampling. We demonstrate FAL calculations using observations of α Cen B, GJ 581, HD 192310, synthetic data from the radial velocity (RV) fitting challenge, and Kepler observations of a differential rotator. The Kepler data analysis shows that only true rotation signals are detected by red noise FALs, while white noise FALs suggest all spurious peaks in the low-frequency range are significant. A high-frequency sinusoid injected into α Cen B logR$'$ HK observations exceeds the 1% red noise FAL despite having only 8.9% of the power of the dominant rotation signal. In a periodogram of HD 192310 RVs, peaks associated with differential rotation and planets are detected against the 5% red noise FAL without iterative model fitting or subtraction. The software for calculating red noise–based FALs is available on GitHub.

Astrostatistics (1882)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Forecasting Dark Matter Subhalo Constraints from Stellar Streams using Implicit Likelihood Inference

The evidence for dark matter (DM) remains compelling, although attempts to understand its particle nature remain inconclusive. One promising method to study DM is detecting DM subhalos through their gravitational interactions with stellar streams. In this study, we apply Neural Posterior Estimation (NPE) to constrain subhalo interaction parameters, including mass, scale radius, velocity, and encounter geometry, from stellar stream kinematics. We generate particle spray simulations based on the Lagrange Cloud stripping technique, focusing on the ATLAS-Aliqa Uma stream as a test case. We train multiple NPE models across multiple observational scenarios, quantifying how kinematic completeness affects inference and forecasting constraints from upcoming surveys including LSST, 4MOST, and 10-year Gaia data. Our results demonstrate that NPE can produce accurate and well-calibrated posteriors. In the idealized case with full 6D coordinates, we achieve subhalo mass uncertainties of 15-20% for a $10^7 \, \mathrm{M_\odot}$ subhalo, with 5D coordinates (excluding radial velocities) achieving similar performance. Under realistic observational conditions, mass uncertainties range from 50% (present-day) to 20-40% (future scenarios), with comparable performance between the photometric-only LSST sample and a smaller sample that includes Gaia proper motions and 4MOST radial velocities. Most notably, we find that velocity bimodality emerges when phase space is poorly sampled, whether due to missing kinematic information or limited stellar tracers. Combining large photometric samples with targeted spectroscopic follow-up can effectively resolves this degeneracy. These results demonstrate the power of implicit likelihood inference for optimizing stellar stream observational strategies and forecasting DM subhalo constraints from upcoming surveys.

Nguyen, Tri [Northwestern U. (main); SkAI, Chicago↗
DOE OSTI2021

The XFaster Power Spectrum and Likelihood Estimator for the Analysis of Cosmic Microwave Background Maps

We present the XFaster analysis package, XFaster is a fast, iterative angular power spectrum estimator based on a diagonal approximation to the quadratic Fisher matrix estimator. XFaster uses Monte Carlo simulations to compute noise biases and filter transfer functions and is thus a hybrid of both Monte Carlo and quadratic estimator methods. In contrast to conventional pseudo-C ℓ based methods, the algorithm described here requires a minimal number of simulations, and does not require them to be precisely representative of the data to estimate accurate covariance matrices for the bandpowers. The formalism works with polarization-sensitive observations and also data sets with identical, partially overlapping, or independent survey regions. The method was first implemented for the analysis of BOOMERanG data (Netterfield et al. 2002; Jones et al. 2006), and also used as part of the Planck analysis (Rocha et al. 2011). Here, we describe the full, publicly available analysis package, written in Python, as developed for the analysis of data from the 2015 flight of the SPIDER instrument (SPIDER Collaboration 2021). The package includes extensions for self-consistently estimating null spectra and for estimating fits for Galactic foreground contributions. We show results from the extensive validation of XFaster using simulations, and its application to the SPIDER data set.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Maximum Likelihood Spectrum Decomposition for Isotope Identification and Quantification

A spectral decomposition method has been implemented to identify and quantify isotopic source terms in high-resolution gamma-ray spectroscopy in static geometry and shielding scenarios. Monte Carlo simulations were used to build the response matrix of a shielded high-purity germanium detector monitoring an effluent stream with a Marinelli configuration. The decomposition technique was applied to a series of calibration spectra taken with the detector using a multi-nuclide standard. These results are compared with decay-corrected values from the calibration certificate. For most nuclei in the standard ( 241 Am, 109 Cd, 137 Cs, and 60 Co), the deviations from the certificate values were generally no more than 6% with a few outliers as high as 10%. Furthermore, for 57 Co, the radionuclide with the lowest activity, the deviations from the standard reached as high as 25%, driven by the meager statistics in the calibration spectra. In addition, a complete treatment of error propagation for the technique is presented.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Systematic quark/gluon identification with ratios of likelihoods

Discriminating between quark- and gluon-initiated jets has long been a central focus of jet substructure, leading to the introduction of numerous observables and calculations to high perturbative accuracy. At the same time, there have been many attempts to fully exploit the jet radiation pattern using tools from statistics and machine learning. We propose a new approach that combines a deep analytic understanding of jet substructure with the optimality promised by machine learning and statistics. After specifying an approximation to the full emission phase space, we show how to construct the optimal observable for a given classification task. This procedure is demonstrated for the case of quark and gluons jets, where we show how to systematically capture sub-eikonal corrections in the splitting functions, and prove that linear combinations of weighted multiplicity is the optimal observable. In addition to providing a new and powerful framework for systematically improving jet substructure observables, we demonstrate the performance of several quark versus gluon jet tagging observables in parton-level Monte Carlo simulations, and find that they perform at or near the level of a deep neural network classifier. Combined with the rapid recent progress in the development of higher order parton showers, we believe that our approach provides a basis for systematically exploiting subleading effects in jet substructure analyses at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and beyond.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗