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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Extending Component Lifetime And Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)

Inverter reliability remains one of the most persistent challenges limiting the performance, availability, and economic viability of utility‑scale photovoltaic (PV) plants. Industry data consistently show that inverters account for the highest share of corrective maintenance events and unplanned outages across PV fleets. These failures result in energy losses, increased O&M costs, and reduced confidence in long‑term solar asset performance. Motivated by these challenges, this project—Extending Component Lifetime and Improving Inverter Reliability (ECLAIIR)—was undertaken to systematically investigate inverter degradation and failure mechanisms, develop predictive maintenance capabilities, and establish data‑driven pathways to improve service life and reduce the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) for large‑scale PV systems. The primary goal of the project was to identify pre‑failure signatures in string inverters using both lab‑based accelerated lifetime testing and field‑based data and to develop predictive maintenance algorithms that can anticipate inverter faults before they occur. Through collaboration with inverter testing laboratory, solar PV plant owner, and failure‑analysis experts, the project advanced the technical understanding of inverter reliability. By instrumenting inverters with thermistors, humidity sensors, power‑quality meters, and acoustic sensors, the research established how multiple sensing modalities can reliably detect deviations from normal behavior hours to days before failure. These findings substantially enhance scientific understanding of inverter failure kinetics and provide the PV industry with the most comprehensive cross‑OEM characterization of early‑stage failure indicators reported to date. Technically, the project demonstrated the effectiveness of predictive maintenance by developing and validating the PreDICT (Predictive Diagnostics of PV Inverters Using Condition Monitoring and Trend Analysis) framework—a multi‑layer diagnostic architecture combining peer‑to‑peer analytics, historical trend modeling, and advanced machine‑learning techniques such as the Sequential Conditional Variational Autoencoder (SCVAE). This predictive model achieved more than 90% accuracy in detecting pre‑failure conditions and provided up to four days of lead time before inverter failure in field scenarios. Economically, the project’s LCOE analysis showed that predictive maintenance can reduce lifetime energy losses and minimize corrective maintenance interventions. Modeling indicated that, depending on inverter failure rates and replacement timelines, predictive maintenance can significantly reduce LCOE impacts associated with inverter downtime: from as high as 19.4% under conventional maintenance strategies to 0.1%–10.17% when predictive analytics are adopted. These results confirm that predictive maintenance is both technically feasible and economically advantageous for utilities and plant operators. The project’s findings also have broad public benefit. By improving inverter reliability and reducing downtime, predictive maintenance directly increases electricity generation from existing PV assets. Enhanced reliability lowers operational costs for utilities, which can translate over time into lower energy costs for consumers. Furthermore, the project’s technical publications, conference presentations, and industry workshops ensure that knowledge gained is shared broadly across the solar industry, supporting workforce development and enabling utilities of all sizes to adopt modern asset‑health monitoring practices. The retrofitting case study and service‑life prediction framework further support informed decision‑making for aging PV fleets, helping operators extend system life and reduce electronic waste. In summary, the ECLAIIR project significantly advanced the state of knowledge on inverter degradation, demonstrated the technical and economic value of predictive maintenance, and delivered actionable tools and insights that support more reliable, cost‑effective, and sustainable PV plant operation. The outcomes of this project will continue to inform utility practices, guide inverter design improvements, and strengthen the long‑term performance of solar assets nationwide.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Prediction of Creep-Induced Strain Using a Symbolic Regression-Based Model

Material creep under high-temperature conditions limits the lifetime and safety of structural systems such as advanced nuclear reactors. Conventional creep testing is slow and often produces inconsistent results across nominally identical experiments, making lifetime prediction uncertain. Here, to address these challenges, this work develops a data-driven symbolic regression (SR) model that consolidates results from duplicate creep tests and predicts the remaining strain-time curve of an ongoing experiment. The method uses piece-wise multi-objective SR with physical constraints to generate analytic, interpretable functions describing transient creep strain. Applied to Inconel Alloy 617 data, the approach achieved relative mean absolute errors of 1.0–9.5%, providing closed-form predictions of strain evolution. These results demonstrate a first step toward reducing the duration and cost of long-term creep testing while retaining physically interpretable model forms.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

BLAST aka: BLAST-Py see also BLAST-Lite (Battery Lifetime Analysis and Simulation Tool Suite - Python) [SWR-22-69]

Battery Lifetime Analysis and Simulation Tool Suite (BLAST or BLAST-Py) developed in the Python programming language. BLAST-Py predicts the evolution of lithium-ion battery performance metrics over their lifetime, using models trained on lab-based accelerated aging data to predict battery performance in dynamic, real-world use. BLAST-Py contains existing models for a variety of lithium-ion battery chemistries (NMC/Gr and LFP/Gr). See also the open-source version of this software tool known as "BLAST-Lite" at: https://github.com/NREL/BLAST-Lite

Smith, Kandler↗
DOE OSTI2025

Detailed Design and Cost Estimation of a 300 MWe Oxy-Fuel sCO2 Turbine

The detailed design of a 300 MWe, utility scale oxy-fuel turbine has been completed for purposed operation in the sCO2 direct fired Allam-Fetvedt cycle, targeting near-zero emissions and a 50% LHV system efficiency. The turbine and its supporting plant aim to offer a lower levelized cost of energy than a natural gas combined cycle plant employing carbon capture. The oxy-fuel turbine conditions include an inlet temperature of 1150°C and inlet pressure of 305 bar, representing temperatures near that of a gas turbine simultaneously with pressures near an ultra-supercritical steam turbine. The combustor housing and turbine designs were completed according to the ASME BPVC; the turbine case specifically incorporates a multi-body design with inner high-pressure barrel case and low-pressure (30 bar) horizontally split outer case of low-chromium steel material. Lateral rotordynamic evaluation demonstrated acceptable vibration response for a range of imbalance conditions per API standards. The cooling flow required in the six-stage turbine flowpath for 30,000 hr. blade and stator lifetime is predicted through thermal and structural modeling of the first stage. The provided cost estimate of the turbine is formed through a combination of scaled up-costs from procured 10 MWe scale sCO2 turbomachinery hardware, and vendor provided budgetary quotes of larger components including the turbine case requiring casting, welding, and final machining processes. The performance and cost estimation of the oxy-fuel turbine predicted for the completed detailed design provides important information towards future development needs for market penetration of utility scale direct fired sCO2 power cycles.

Marshall, Michael [Southwest Research Institute, S↗
DOE OSTI2023

$\Sigma (1385)^{\pm }$ resonance production in Pb–Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{\textrm{NN}}} = 5.02$ TeV

Hadronic resonances are used to probe the hadron gas produced in the late stage of heavy-ion collisions since they decay on the same timescale, of the order of 1–10 fm/c, as the decoupling time of the system. In the hadron gas, (pseudo)elastic scatterings among the products of resonances that decayed before the kinetic freeze-out and regeneration processes counteract each other, the net effect depending on the resonance lifetime, the duration of the hadronic phase, and the hadronic cross sections at play. In this context, the Σ(1385) ± particle is of particular interest as models predict that regeneration dominates over rescattering despite its relatively short lifetime of about 5.5 fm/c. The first measurement of the Σ(1385) ± resonance production at midrapidity in Pb–Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$=5.02 TeV with the ALICE detector is presented in this Letter. The resonances are reconstructed via their hadronic decay channel, Λπ, as a function of the transverse momentum (p T ) and the collision centrality. The results are discussed in comparison with the measured yield of pions and with expectations from the statistical hadronization model as well as commonly employed event generators, including PYTHIA8/Angantyr and EPOS3 coupled to the UrQMD hadronic cascade afterburner. None of the models can describe the data. For Σ(1385) ± , a similar behaviour as K*(892) 0 is observed in data unlike the predictions of EPOS3 with afterburner.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Distinct Gas-Particle Partitioning and Viscosity Characteristics of Secondary Organic Aerosols Derived from α-Pinene versus Ocimene

Secondary organic aerosols (SOA) have complex, multicomponent composition that controls particle viscosity and gas-particle partitioning, key factors to their atmospheric evolution. This study investigates the chemical composition, volatility and viscosity of SOA formed by ozonolysis of cyclic α-pinene (PSOA) and acyclic ocimene (OSOA) monoterpenes. Using Temperature-Programmed Desorption combined with Direct Analysis in Real-Time ionization and High-Resolution Mass Spectrometry, we determined the molecular composition and saturation mass concentration of individual SOA constituents. These data enabled gas-particle partitioning and viscosity estimates under varied atmospheric conditions. PSOA, composed of higher molecular weight and less oxidized species, shows higher condensability and viscosity under high total organic mass (tOM) loadings. Here, in contrast, OSOA, consisting of more oxidized, lower molecular weight species, exhibits greater sensitivity to tOM, with viscosity increasing significantly upon dilution. Poke-flow experiments support this trend, indicating that OSOA undergoes more dynamic compositional and phase changes during atmospheric aging. These observations reveal distinct dynamic trends in the atmospheric transformations and reactivity of SOA from cyclic and acyclic monoterpenes, with the latter showing greater compositional changes during aging that alter viscosity and diffusion. This highlights the importance of incorporating such dynamic transformations into atmospheric models to improve predictions of SOA atmospheric loadings, lifetimes, and impacts.

cyclic and acyclic monoterpenes↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling the Fundamental Radiation Chemistry of the Organic Diluent, and the Effect of Metal Ion Complexation on the Radiochemical Behavior of Active Compounds

All used nuclear fuel (UNF) reprocessing technologies must operate efficiently in the presence of an intense, multi-component (predominantly alpha, beta, and gamma) radiation field. Consequently, radiation-induced degradation of reprocessing systems is of concern, as it negatively impacts process performance over time due to the destruction of both active compounds (ligands, phase modifiers, holdback agents, etc.) and the formation of degradation products. Reprocessing solvent system radiolysis has been linked to changes in separation efficiency and physical properties of solvent mixtures, solvent-recycle longevity, crud formation, and other unexpected outcomes that impact the efficient recovery of valuable materials (e.g., the actinides) and the volume of hazardous radioactive waste for final disposal, i.e., in a geological repository. Consequently, a fundamental understanding of radiolytic processes and their effects on reprocessing solvent system performance is critical for: (i) the cost-effective development and innovation of separation technologies; (ii) the design and implementation of predictive radiation chemical models for process monitoring and lifetimes; and (iii) potentially the ability to exploit radiolytic phenomenon to our benefit, e.g., strategic radiolysis of active molecules to liberate specific degradation products that aid subsequent process stages. Despite extensive investigation into the radiolytic behavior of active solvent system compounds, little attention has been given to understanding (i) the radiation chemical behavior and modification of the organic diluent and (ii) the effect of metal ion complexation on the radiochemical behavior of active compounds.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lithium-Ion Battery Life Model with Electrode Cracking and Early-Life Break-in Processes

This paper develops a physically justified reduced-order capacity fade model from accelerated calendar- and cycle-aging data for 32 lithium-ion (Li-ion) graphite/nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) cells. The large data set reveals temperature-, charge C-rate-, depth-of-discharge-, and state of charge (SOC)-dependent degradation patterns that would be unobserved in a smaller test matrix. Model structure is informed by incremental capacity analysis that shows loss of lithium inventory and cathode-material loss as the dominant capacity fade mechanisms. The model includes terms attributable to solid-electrolyte interface (SEI) growth, electrode cracking, cycling-driven acceleration of SEI growth, and "break-in" mechanisms that slightly decrease or increase available Li inventory early in life. The study explores what mathematical couplings of these mechanisms best describe calendar aging, cycle aging, and mixed calendar/cycle aging. Various approaches are discussed for extracting relevant stress factors from complex cycling profiles to predict lifetime during real-world battery loads using models trained on constant-current laboratory test results. The complexity of the present human-driven model identification process motivates future work in machine learning to more widely search and statistically discern the optimal model that correctly extrapolates capacity fade based on physical knowledge.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

LLNL 5-2428: Fracture Permeability and Seismic Slip Behavior

Our goal is to develop, apply and validate a holistic thermal, hydrologic, mechanical, and chemical (THMC) workflow that also includes evaluation of induced seismic slip in EGS reservoirs. We will integrate experimental and modelling approaches to reduce parameteruncertainty and better predict and mitigate seismic hazard at Utah FORGE and future EGS sites.We propose a novel approach that incorporates 3D physics-based Earthquake simulations in THMC models, herein referred to as “THMC+E” models. This capability will enable improvedengineering decisions at Utah FORGE and move EGS operations toward repeatable, robust, economically viable, and socially accepted development. Utah FORGE management and future EGS operators may employ results of THMC+E models for decision making purposes throughout the lifetime of the field operation. For example, before production well installation, our THMC+E models will predict circulation scenarios and related seismic hazard for a suite ofpossible well locations and flow rates, thus enabling evaluation of optimal production well placement. Such efforts will be conducted throughout the lifetime of the project, whereby additional laboratory experiments will constrain key model parameters and machine learning (ML) will reduce the size of the parameter space and the associated uncertainty. THMC+E simulations will enable exploration various circumstances that may hinder EGS success and develop mitigation strategies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamic data-driven multiscale modeling for predicting the degradation of a 316L stainless steel nuclear cladding material

Here, we have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Data-Driven Multiscale Modeling for Predicting Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of 316L Stainless Steel

We have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electric fields and substrates dramatically accelerate spin relaxation in graphene

Electrons in graphene are theoretically expected to retain spin states much longer than most materials, making graphene a promising platform for spintronics and quantum information technologies. Here, in this work, we use first-principles density-matrix (FPDM) dynamics simulations to show that interaction with electric fields and substrates strongly enhances spin relaxation through scattering with phonons. Consequently, the relaxation time at room temperature reduces from microseconds in free-standing graphene to nanoseconds in graphene on the hexagonal boron nitride (hBN) substrate, which is the order of magnitude typically measured in experiments. Further, inversion symmetry breaking by hBN introduces a stronger asymmetry in electron and hole spin lifetimes than predicted by the conventional D'yakonov-Perel' (DP) model for spin relaxation. Deviations from the conventional DP model are stronger for in-plane spin relaxation, resulting in out-of-plane to in-plane lifetime ratios much greater than 1/2 with a maximum close to the Dirac point. These FPDM results, independent of symmetry-specific assumptions or material-dependent parameters, also validate recent modifications of the DP model to explain such deviations. Overall, our results indicate that spin-phonon relaxation in the presence of substrates may be more important in graphene than typically assumed, requiring consideration for graphene-based spin technologies at room temperature.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Defect Kinetics and Control for Module Reliability

Potential induced degradation is currently one of the most important module degradation mechanisms. It has been suggested that stacking faults decorated with sodium from the module glass are responsible for this effect and authors have also shown the reversibility of this effect upon reverse biasing of the module. The importance of sodium in the failure mechanism is clear, however, little is known regarding the factors that control its diffusion into the wafer, making it nearly impossible to predict the performance of a given module and engineer it to be better. Sodium migration from module glass into silicon cells and the resulting module degradation is a clear example of how defect kinetics can determine overall module performance and long-term reliability. To the detriment of the industry and its bankability, no quantitative models yet exist to predict defect-assisted module degradation, limiting the progress in improving reliability. In particular, the understanding of defect behavior under high electric fields, under stresses imparted by encapsulation or temperature, and under real operating conditions over long periods of time is a crucial gap in the current state-of-the-art. In this work we developed a Defect-Device-Degradation model to predict defect behavior and its impact on device performance over the module operational lifetime using experimentally-determined defect parameterizations. The validated model will provide a platform for manufacturing process optimization across input materials and architectures to avoid deleterious defects upstream and enable enhanced module robustness.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the Impact of the Organic Aerosol Phase State on Multiphase OH Reactive Uptake Kinetics and the Resultant Heterogeneous Oxidation Timescale of Organic Aerosol in the Amazon Rainforest

Accurate predictions of chemical lifetime, i.e., oxidation timescale and change in the mass of organic aerosols (OAs) in atmospheric models, are critical to quantify the impacts of OA on aerosol–cloud interactions, radiative forcing, and air quality. The heterogeneous oxidation of OA by hydroxyl (OH) radicals is a key process governing OA mass changes during their oxidation. Recently, laboratory observations of the OH uptake coefficient (γ OH ) and heterogeneous reaction rate (k het,OH ) for different OA systems with varying phase states have been combined to develop a new parameterization of γ OH and k het,OH as a function of the OA phase state, i.e., viscosity (η OA ). Here, in this work, we use a recently published viscosity prediction framework to analyze the new γ OH and k het,OH parameterization with a box model. Subsequently, we implement this box model to predict γ OH and k het,OH over the Amazon rainforest in the dry-to-wet transition season with both significant biomass burning and biogenic influences. Relevant parameters within our box model are specified based on detailed regional model simulations over the Amazon using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem). η OA is predicted as a function of species volatility, OA composition (including water uptake) along with ambient relative humidity (RH), and temperature. Based on ambient conditions simulated by WRF-Chem over the entire atmospheric column, we use the box model to predict the upper bounds of the heterogeneous oxidation timescale of OA. Based on previous laboratory measurements, we assume that this heterogeneous OH oxidation causes fragmentation (carbon loss) of OA, followed by the evaporation of the fragmented molecules that results in the exponential decay of OA. We predict that the oxidation timescale of OA is ~1 month near the Earth’s surface in the pristine Amazonian background because of low OH concentrations. But OA is oxidized more rapidly within urban and wildfire plumes near the Earth’s surface with an order of magnitude higher OH concentrations compared to the pristine background, causing the simulated oxidation timescale of OA to be much shorter, ~3–4 days. At 3–5 km altitudes where biomass burning OA is predicted to be semisolid, the heterogeneous oxidation timescale is estimated as ~6 days to 3 weeks and decreases with increasing OH concentrations within plumes. We show that the simulated mass loss of OA is strongly size-dependent, where smaller particles oxidize more rapidly compared to larger particles due to their greater per-particle surface area-to-volume ratio. Increasing urbanization and deforestation in the Amazon in the future might increase OH concentrations in the background Amazon, causing faster oxidation of OA. At higher altitudes above liquid clouds, especially in the upper troposphere where temperatures approach ~250 K, future measurements are needed to reduce the uncertainties related to the mass loss of OA at colder temperatures and low relative humidity conditions due to its heterogeneous OH oxidation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of PV Module Packaging Strategies of Monofacial and Bifacial PERC Using Degradation Pathway Network Modeling

As the PV industry is rapidly expanding, it is important to thoroughly investigate the long-term impact of packaging strategies on the performance of PV modules. In this study, the variants in sets differ on the basis of manufacturer (A/B), encapsulant (EVA/POE), rear encapsulant (UV-cutoff/opaque/transparent), module architecture (GB/DG) and cell type (monofacial/bifacial). The minimodules were exposed for 2520 hours in modified damp heat, with or without full spectrum light. Every 504 hours, stepwise electrical characterization techniques were employed to track changes in minimodules. Degradation pathway modeling using network structural equation modeling was employed to study pairwise relationships between variables and service lifetime prediction in minimodules. Through this study, differences in quality control are identified in minimodules made by different manufacturers. Minimodules with UV-cutoff rear encapsulant show relatively better stability, whereas the ones with opaque rear encapsulant show greater power loss. In addition, GB having UV-cutoff rear encapsulation and GB with POE having opaque rear encapsulation were identified to be stable as they lack a best model fit. Here, the primary power loss mechanism in degrading variants is interconnect corrosion.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Network Models of Active Degradation Mechanisms and Pathways for Service Life Prediction of Indoor and Outdoor PV Modules

ct: PV service lifetime prediction (SLP) enables accurate calculation of levelized cost of energy (LCOE), which is crucial to rationalizing PV investment and installation. However, SLP is challeging since PV reliability in the field is affected by many combined factors, including various environmental stresses and module quality. In order to map out the active degradation mechanisms and pathways that best resemble real world conditions, we introduce the framework of a study protocol and use network models fitted to data, to enable analysis and SLP of complex PV systems with multiple active degradation mechanisms. The study protocol is the experimental design, including module variants and different exposure conditions, selection of evaluation methods, time-series data acquisition and training of network models to these data. We present SLP of minimodules in the lab and PV systems in the field. For lab SLP, minimodules with 8 variants based on manufacturer, architecture, and encapsulation were prepared and aged in modified damp heat with or without full spectrum light exposure. Stepwise I-V and Suns-Voc data acquisition tracks changes in electrical properties including Rs,IV, Isc,IV, Vmp,PIV providing insights into power loss of minimodules. Network structural equation modeling (netSEM) was utilized to construct degradation pathway models that identify active degradation mechanisms and predict power loss over time. For field SLP, datastreams of Pmp values and I-V curve datastreams of two types of modules installed in three distinctly different Köppen-Geiger climate zones for 9 years were acquired. With power loss modes corresponding to uniform current loss (ΔPIsc), recombination (ΔPVoc), series resistance (ΔPRs), and current mismatch (ΔPImis) determined, the performance loss rates (PLR) were determined using PVplr. We show how to establish a study protocol framework to ensure appropriate parametric variations and valid data collection from the variants of your complex systems. Then the data-driven netSEM model fitting provides a comprehensive mapping of multiple active degradation mechanisms, and accurate service life prediction.

network model, degradation, photovoltaic, solar↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model calibration of the liquid mercury spallation target using evolutionary neural networks and sparse polynomial expansions

The mercury constitutive model predicting the strain and stress in the target vessel plays a central role in improving the lifetime prediction and future target designs of the mercury targets at the Spallation Neutron Source. We leverage the experiment strain data collected over multiple years to improve the mercury constitutive model through a combination of large scale simulations of the target behavior and the use of machine learning tools for parameter estimation. We present two interdisciplinary approaches for surrogate-based model calibration of expensive simulations using evolutionary neural networks and sparse polynomial expansions. The newly calibrated simulations achieve 7% average improvement on the prediction accuracy and 8% reduction in mean absolute error compared to previously reported reference parameters, with some individual sensors experiencing up to 30% improvement. The calibrated simulations can aid in fatigue analysis to estimate the mercury target lifetime, which reduces abrupt failure and saves tremendous amount of costs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

A&L Annual Report: Kapton Strength

Exploding Foil Initiator (EFI) systems function by launching a polymer flyer (often referred to as a slapper) at a high explosive (HE) pellet, which is intended to shock-initiate the HE. Flyer characteristics (e.g., shape, planarity, etc.) are extremely important in this respect, governing their ability to initiate the HE. Polymer models currently used in these systems are largely unvalidated, potentially compromising the integrity of magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) predictions of EFI function. An improved EFI MHD modelling capability is expected to: (1) expedite optimization of EFI-based initiation system design, (2) enable consideration of EFI-related aging and corresponding lifetime predictions, and (3) potentially minimize the number of costly experiments required to certify EFI designs. To address this knowledge gap, several years ago we began a computational project to develop a higher-fidelity model for Kapton, a Polyimide copolymer most commonly employed as the flyer material in EFI devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗