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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Reversible parts-per-trillion-level detection of perfluorooctane sulfonic acid in tap water using field-effect transistor sensors

Widespread, persistent and toxic per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) pose a major threat to water systems and human health. Current detection methods are relatively expensive, slow and complex, underscoring the need for more accessible alternatives to meet increasingly stringent PFAS regulations. Here, in this study, we present an ultrasensitive sensing platform for perfluorooctane sulfonic acid detection in tap water with a reporting limit ( ~ 250 parts per quadrillion) lower than the US Environmental Protection Agency’s regulatory standard (4 parts per trillion), using a remote gate field-effect transistor featuring β-cyclodextrin (β-CD)-modified reduced graphene oxide as the sensing membrane. The sensor exhibits excellent selectivity against common inorganic ions, natural organic matter and select organic pollutants in tap water. The reversible and rapid response ( < 2 min) indicates the potential of remote gate field-effect transistor for continuous in-line monitoring. Mechanistic studies using quartz crystal microbalance and molecular dynamics simulations reveal key roles of analyte adsorption and charge properties in sensing performance and offer insights for designing more selective PFAS capture probes.

Wang, Yuqin [University of Chicago, IL (United Sta↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Simple Data-Centric Methodology for Producible Geothermal Well Determinations: Preprint

The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has traditionally lacked a standardized methodology for determining if a newly drilled geothermal well is "producible," a designation essential for deciding whether a lease should be "held by production." This is a straightforward problem to solve in oil and gas: Demonstrate that a well is economically viable, meaning it produces sufficient oil or gas to exceed direct operating costs and lease-related expenses, such as rentals or minimum royalties. In geothermal, the problem is more complex: Geothermal wells are tightly coupled with the downstream infrastructure - specifically, the power plant, which is often not designed until well after a lease is deemed as "held by production." Although this designation is critical for advancing geothermal power plant development on BLM-managed lands, current geothermal well assessments often rely on ad hoc approaches that can be complex, operator-biased, and heavy in assumptions related to economic viability. To address this, we have developed two complementary methodologies: a minimum power requirement-based approach and a productivity index (PI)-based approach. These methods leverage key flow test data - pressure, temperature, flow rate, and specific enthalpy - to provide reliable and standardized producible well determinations. The minimum power requirement-based approach evaluates wells against specific power output thresholds informed by reservoir experts and the associated temperature requirements. The PI-based approach assesses well productivity using widely accepted reservoir engineering metrics, proposing a threshold of 2.5 kg/s/bar. Both methods are data-driven and grounded in empirical production data from operational geothermal wells, avoiding uncertain economic assumptions while maintaining decision-making accuracy. Wells falling below key performance thresholds (i.e., PI, specific power) are deemed non-producible. These methodologies aim to streamline BLM's decision-making process, reduce nontechnical barriers to geothermal energy adoption, and enable regulatory expansion into states lacking geothermal expertise. Preliminary results indicate clear trends and thresholds in production data that provide actionable insights for evaluating well producibility. Validation using well completion report (WCR) data is ongoing, with promising results demonstrating the potential for these standardized methodologies to impact geothermal development significantly.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pavement condition and climatic data in southeast Texas: A dataset for evaluating flood impacts on pavement performance

Effective pavement maintenance is essential for economic stability, optimal network performance, and roadway safety. Achieving this requires thorough evaluation of pavement conditions, including structural integrity, surface roughness, and distress characteristics. Pavement performance indicators play a critical role in influencing vehicle safety and ride quality. Recent advances have emphasized the use of data-driven modeling to anticipate pavement behavior, with the goal of optimizing resource allocation and refining Maintenance and Rehabilitation (M&R) strategies through accurate condition assessment. A foundational requirement for these modeling efforts is the availability of standardized, high-quality datasets that can support robust and reproducible infrastructure analysis. This data article presents a comprehensive dataset assembled to facilitate pavement performance prediction, with a geographic focus on Southeast Texas, particularly the flood-vulnerable area of Beaumont. The dataset encompasses pavement and traffic attributes, meteorological records, flood simulation outputs, ground deformation measurements, and topographic indices, enabling detailed examination of both load-associated and non-load-associated degradation mechanisms. Data preprocessing was performed using ArcGIS Pro, Microsoft Excel, and Python to ensure consistency and usability in data-driven modeling applications, including machine learning workflows. Key contributions of this dataset include its utility in analyzing the climatic and environmental factors affecting pavement conditions, identifying critical predictive features, and enabling in-depth correlation analysis across diverse variables. By filling existing gaps in input variable selection resources, this dataset supports the development of predictive tools for estimating future maintenance demand and enhancing the resilience of pavement networks in flood-impacted areas. The resource highlights the importance of standardized datasets for advancing pavement management practices and provides a robust foundation for ongoing infrastructure performance modeling.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Promotional Effect of ZnO and ZrO 2 in K-Doped Fe Catalysts for CO 2 Hydrogenation to Light Olefins

Promoters play a critical role in tuning the activity and selectivity of Fe catalysts in CO 2 hydrogenation to produce light olefins, which are key building blocks in the petrochemical industry. Herein, by a combined experimental and theoretical approach, we show that high and stable performance of Fe catalysts could be achieved by taking advantage of the promotional effect of both Zn and Zr. Structural characterization indicates that ZnO could improve the dispersion and reducibility of Fe oxides and facilitate the formation of active Fe carbide species, whereas ZrO 2 could stabilize the structure and catalytic performance, especially the selectivity of hydrocarbon products. In situ diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy (DRIFTS) experiments suggest that carbonate, bicarbonate, formate, and methoxy are essential intermediates in the CO 2 hydrogenation to hydrocarbon products, including paraffins and olefins. The conversion kinetics of each intermediate species are dependent on the type of promoters as well as the phase structure of the active Fe species. DFT calculations revealed a strong correlation between the formation energy of surface oxygen vacancies and that of Fe carbide species in promoted Fe oxides, in accordance with experimental results. Moreover, the calculated energy profiles of CO 2 hydrogenation over different catalysts indicate that Zn could promote the activation of CO 2 and its transformation to the oxygenate intermediates, while Zr could facilitate the conversion of oxygenates to hydrocarbon precursors. Finally, the discrepancies in the evolution trend of various intermediate species on promoted Fe catalysts in the transient DRIFTS experiments can be rationalized by the differences in energy barriers of elementary or rate limiting steps.

CO2 conversion↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mechanism of Lithium Ion Exchange Into Spinel Manganese Oxide

Lithium manganese oxide (LMO) is an effective absorbent for lithium recovery from brines, characterized by its high adsorption capacity, excellent regeneration performance, and selectivity. Here, this study investigates the mechanisms of material degradation during lithium loading and unloading in LMO, employing a combination of time‐resolved Raman spectroscopy, X‐ray diffraction, and X‐ray photoelectron spectroscopy. Key findings reveal that the A 1g vibrational mode wavenumber shifts from 635 cm −1 at the onset of lithium ion exchange to 656 cm −1 after 12 min, indicating local symmetry loss and manganese (Mn) loss during lithium intercalation. The proposed lithium exchange mechanism involves initial occupation of tetrahedral interstitial voids, followed by migration into interstitial sites between Mn octahedral sites. Computational modeling suggests that the loss of symmetry in MnO cubane‐like groups occurs as lithium migrates, significantly affecting the Raman spectra. Importantly, the study demonstrates that after 100 cycles of lithium/hydrogen loading, a 24% loss in Mn is observed, which correlates with decreased structural stability; however, the structural integrity of LMO is enhanced when subjected to multiple cycles without complete loading. Here, these insights contribute to the understanding of LMO's performance in lithium recovery applications and highlight potential strategies to optimize its use in future technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale Physics of Atomic Nuclei from First Principles

Atomic nuclei exhibit multiple energy scales ranging from hundreds of MeV in binding energies to fractions of an MeV for low-lying collective excitations. As the limits of nuclear binding are approached near the neutron and proton drip lines, traditional shell structure starts to melt with an onset of deformation and an emergence of coexisting shapes. It is a long-standing challenge to describe this multiscale physics starting from nuclear forces with roots in quantum chromodynamics. Here, we achieve this within a unified and nonperturbative quantum many-body framework that captures both short- and long-range correlations starting from modern nucleon-nucleon and three-nucleon forces from chiral effective field theory. The short-range (dynamic) correlations which account for the bulk of the binding energy are included within a symmetry-breaking framework, while long-range (static) correlations (and fine details about the collective structure) are included by employing symmetry projection techniques. Our calculations accurately reproduce—within theoretical error bars—available experimental data for low-lying collective states and the electromagnetic quadrupole transitions in 20−30 Ne. In addition, we reveal coexisting spherical and deformed shapes in 30 Ne, which indicates the breakdown of the magic neutron number 𝑁 = 20 as the key nucleus 28 O is approached, and we predict that the drip line nuclei 32,34 Ne are strongly deformed and collective. By developing reduced-order models for symmetry-projected states, we perform a global sensitivity analysis and find that the subleading singlet 𝑆-wave contact and a pion-nucleon coupling strongly impact nuclear deformation in chiral effective field theory. The techniques developed in this work clarify how microscopic nuclear forces generate the multiscale physics of nuclei spanning collective phenomena as well as short-range correlations and allow one to capture emergent and dynamical phenomena in finite fermion systems such as atom clusters, molecules, and atomic nuclei.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Phytosulfokine downregulates defense‐related WRKY transcription factors and attenuates pathogen‐associated molecular pattern‐triggered immunity

SUMMARY Phytosulfokine (PSK) is a plant growth‐promoting peptide hormone that is perceived by its cell surface receptors PSKR1 and PSKR2 in Arabidopsis. Plants lacking the PSK receptors show phenotypes consistent with PSK signaling repressing some plant defenses. To gain further insight into the PSK signaling mechanism, comprehensive transcriptional profiling of Arabidopsis treated with PSK was performed, and the effects of PSK treatment on plant defense readouts were monitored. Our study indicates that PSK's major effect is to downregulate defense‐related genes; it has a more modest effect on the induction of growth‐related genes. WRKY transcription factors (TFs) emerged as key regulators of PSK‐responsive genes, sharing commonality with a pathogen‐associated molecular pattern (PAMP) responses, flagellin 22 (flg22), but exhibiting opposite regulatory directions. These PSK‐induced transcriptional changes were accompanied by biochemical and physiological changes that reduced PAMP responses, notably mitogen‐activated protein kinase (MPK) phosphorylation (previously implicated in WRKY activation) and the cell wall modification of callose deposition. Comparison with previous studies using other growth stimuli (the sulfated plant peptide containing sulfated tyrosine [PSY] and Pseudomonas simiae strain WCS417) also reveals WRKY TFs' overrepresentations in these pathways, suggesting a possible shared mechanism involving WRKY TFs for plant growth–defense trade‐off.

Liu, Dian [Biochemistry and Molecular Biophysics T↗
DOE OSTI2025

Influence of Process Parameter and Build Rate Variations on Defect Formation in Laser Powder Bed Fusion SS316L

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) is an additive manufacturing process that has gained interest for its material fabrication due to multiple advantages, such as the ability to print parts with small feature sizes, good mechanical properties, reduced material waste, etc. However, variations in the key process parameters in LPBF may result in the instantiation of porosity defects and variation in build rate. Particularly, volumetric energy density (VED) is a variable that encapsulates a number of those parameters and represents the amount of energy input from the laser source to the feedstock. VED has been traditionally used to inform the quality of the printed part but different values of VED are presented as optimal values for certain material systems. An optimal VED value can be maintained by changing the key process parameters so that various combinations yield a constant value. In this study, an optimal constant VED value is maintained while printing SS316L with variable key processing parameters. Porosity analysis is performed using optical microscopy, as well as X-ray computed tomography, to reveal the volume density and distribution of those pores. Two primary defect categories are identified, namely lack of fusion and porosity induced by balling defects. The findings indicate that, even at optimal VED, variations in process parameters can significantly influence defect type, underscoring the sensitivity of defect formation to the variation of these parameters. Furthermore, a minor change in the build rate, driven by adjustments in process parameters, was found to influence defect categories. These findings emphasize that fine tuning the process parameters and build rate is essential to minimize defects. Finally, fiducial marks have been identified as a source of unintentional porosity defects. These results enable the refinement of process parameters, ultimately optimizing LPBF to achieve enhanced material density and expedite the printing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

FLEX-FUEL MIXING CONTROLLED COMBUSTION ENABLED BY PRECHAMBER IGNITION

There is an imminent need to displace fossil diesel fuel with cleaner burning, domestically produced, renewable fuels for use in heavy-duty engines. Bioethanol is a prime candidate as it widely adopted in the U.S. as a gasoline additive ranging in volume percentage from 10% (E10) up to 85% (E85). Direct substitution of market available ethanol-gasoline blends for diesel fuel is not plausible as the stark reactivity differences would not constitute the same ignition quality nor achieve auto-ignition at all. This work focuses on the development of prechamber enabled mixing-controlled combustion (PC-MCC) as an advanced combustion strategy to facilitate reliable ignition and diffusion style combustion ethanol-gasoline fuel blends. PC-MCC involves integration of an actively fueled prechamber (PC) into a conventional compression ignition combustion system. When ignited, the PC ejects hot turbulent jets into the main combustion chamber that then interact with the direct injected fuel, prompting immediate ignition. The PC jet flames provide a robust thermal ignition source that allows the engine to operate agnostic of fuel composition, or flex-fuel. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling was used to assess critical design features of the PC while garnering insights into the ignition strategies that facilitate robust performance. A key finding was the ignition performance benefits of fuel-rich PC operation which yield exothermic jets. Based on the numerical findings, a prototype igniter was tested experimentally on both single and multi-cylinder engine platforms at a variety of operating conditions. The experimental results indicate flex-fuel PC-MCC is well capable of diesel-like combustion processes by demonstrating matched or improved gross thermal efficiencies and load variability within 2%. Fuel grade ethanol (E98) exhibited consistently lower NOx and immeasurable soot across the load space. E98 also demonstrated a significant improvement in thermal efficiency at light loads.

Zeman, Jared↗
DOE OSTI2026

Towards Commercialization of Hydrophone Flow Shields to Improve Passive Acoustic Data Quality (CRADA 678) (Final Report)

This project performed testing, market research, and manufacturing refinement to ready patent-pending hydrophone flow shields developed at PNNL for commercialization. The flow shields reduce the impact of flow noise on underwater sound recordings in areas of strong flow, like tidal channels or rivers. Flow noise is a challenge in many applications where it is necessary to measure underwater sound, including measuring the sound produced by marine energy converters and monitoring marine mammals. This project addressed several key questions about flow shield performance that are high-priority for potential customers and refined existing manufacturing processes to be scalable for market-level production. Specifically, this project conducted both laboratory and field evaluations of the flow shields to comprehensively evaluate their performance. Overall, the results indicate that the flow shields reduce flow noise by over 20 dB at frequencies below 50 Hz at flow speeds greater than 0.5 m/s and are proven to survive deployments more than 6 months long.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Forest aboveground biomass estimation through integration of sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 time series: assessing models trained on GEDI and field inventory benchmarks

Accurate and spatially explicit forest Aboveground Biomass (AGB) mapping through remote sensing is critical for quantifying terrestrial carbon stocks and informing effective forest management strategies. However, AGB estimation in dense forests with complex terrain remains challenging due to satellite sensor signal saturation problem (saturation issue occurs in high biomass forests), structural complexity, and limited ground truth for calibration. This study presents a novel framework that integrates multi-temporal Sentinel-2 optical imagery, ALOS PALSAR-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and topographic variables with explainable Machine Learning to map AGB across mountainous forests within subtropical and temperate oceanic climate zones of Mexico. We evaluate the effects of temporal granularity and sensor synergy by comparing multiple temporal inputs and sensor configurations (Sentinel-2, PALSAR-2, and their fusion), and assess model performance using two reference datasets: NASA GEDI LiDAR-derived biomass and Mexico’s National Forest and Soil Inventory (INFyS). Our results showed that models trained on INFyS consistently outperformed those trained on GEDI, highlighting limitations in GEDI’s reliability in biomass estimates within this study region. Furthermore, the integration of Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 provided improved predictions compared to single-sensor models, particularly when combined with temporally explicit yearly statistics. The best-performing model, which was trained on INFyS data, and considered both Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 yearly statistics, as well as topographic variables, achieved an R2 of 0.64, RMSE of 51.10 Mg/ha, and relative RMSE (rRMSE) of 58.69%. Explainable ML analysis identified Sentinel-2 spectral indices and topographic features as key predictors, while PALSAR-2 metrics provided complementary information, partially mitigating saturation effects in high-biomass areas. Specifically, integrating both sensors substantially improved AGB estimation in high biomass forest (≥200 Mg/ha), yielding 98% gains over optical-only model, with resulting estimates exceeding GEDI L4B by 29% and ESA-CCI-BIOMASS by 174%. Terrain-stratified analysis indicated close agreement with GEDI in low-slope areas, with increasing divergence as slope steepness increased, while estimates remained consistently higher than ESA-CCI-BIOMASS across all slope classes. The proposed approach advances multi-sensor fusion and temporal feature engineering for AGB mapping using open-access satellite datasets, providing a scalable and reproducible framework for annual biomass monitoring in topographically complex mountainous forests. The resulting 25 m resolution biomass product has the potential to provide spatially detailed information for forest monitoring and may support applications in carbon accounting and forest management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A hybrid neural architecture: Online attosecond x-ray characterization

The emergence of high-repetition-rate x-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs), such as SLAC’s LCLS-II, serves as our canonical example for autonomous controls that necessitate high-throughput diagnostics paired with streaming computational pipelines capable of single-shot analysis with extremely low latency. We present the deterministic characterization with an integrated parallelizable hybrid resolver architecture, a hybrid machine learning framework designed for fast, accurate analysis of XFEL diagnostics using angular streaking-based sinogram images. This architecture integrates convolutional neural networks and bidirectional long short-term memory models to denoise input, identify x-ray sub-spike features, and extract sub-spike relative delays with sub-30 attosecond temporal resolution. Deployed on low-latency hardware, it achieves over 10 kHz throughput with 168.3 μs inference latency, indicating scalability to 14 kHz with field-programmable gate array integration. By transforming regression tasks into classification problems and leveraging optimized error encoding, we achieve high precision with low-latency performance that is critical for real-time streaming event selection and experimental control feedback signals. This represents a key development in real-time control pipelines for next-generation autonomous science, generally, and high repetition-rate x-ray experiments in particular.

Accelerator Physics (physics.acc-ph)↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the importance of species immiscibility in mixing-layer dynamics at supercritical pressures

The mixing dynamics of injected propellants is a key factor in determining the ignition performance and combustion-instability response of rocket engines, internal combustion engines, and gas turbines. A key source of uncertainty in the prediction of phase-exchange dynamics is the immiscibility of the injected propellants at supercritical pressure conditions, which induces liquid/vapor phase separation and surface-tension dynamics. While experimental observations indicate the presence of liquid/vapor interfacial structures, this interfacial dynamics is typically neglected in numerical analyses. To address this issue, the objective of the present study is to systematically evaluate the importance of species immiscibility on the phase-exchange dynamics of cryogenic LOX/GH2 mixing layers at typical rocket engine injection conditions. This is accomplished by comparing simulations of (i) a recently developed interface-capturing Regularized-Interface Method (RIM) formulation, and (ii) the commonly employed Diffuse-Interface Method (DIM) formulation. Analysis shows that the interfacial dynamics significantly impact the atomization and mixing of the propellants in the near-injector region, which is not captured by the DIM formulation. The findings of this study extend to other immiscible injection systems, such as LOX/kerosene and hydrocarbon-fuel/air, thereby highlighting the importance of resolving species immiscibility in simulating high-pressure combustion engines.

diffused-interface method↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stakeholder-guided holistic, Adaptive Framework for enhancing community Energy Resilience (SAFER) (Final Technical Report)

The Stakeholder-guided holistic, Adaptive Framework for enhancing community Energy Resilience (SAFER) project advances resilience science and engineering by addressing challenges in rural Kansas communities where aging infrastructure, extreme weather, and socioeconomic disparities heighten vulnerability to energy disruptions. Traditional approaches often focus on technical performance while overlooking community concerns and priorities. SAFER responds by integrating community perspectives with advanced analytical frameworks to create a holistic model for measuring and improving resilience. Project objectives included developing novel resilience metrics, advancing modeling frameworks that capture interdependencies across infrastructures, and embedding community-centric indicators directly into planning processes for distributed energy resources. The key technical innovations included the creation of self-organizing map (SOM)-based indices for objective resilience quantification, hetero-functional graph theory (HFGT) models linking power, water, transportation, and community assets, and graph neural network (GNN) tools for identifying critical nodes in complex systems. Community-centric energy planning was demonstrated through optimal siting and sizing of (photovoltaic) PV and battery storage, ensuring resilience enhancements also addressed energy burden and energy insecurity. SAFER engaged community partners in Dodge City and Ford County through surveys, focus groups, and workshops, generating more than 600 responses that established baseline measures of energy burden, financial insecurity, and willingness-to-pay to avoid outages. This data, organized in terms of a community capitals framework, informed the development of weighted reliability indices that better reflect community costs than traditional utility metrics. SAFER’s GNN-based critical node identification framework identified expert-labelled critical nodes with over 99% accuracy, while also uncovering additional functionalities essential for proactive resilience planning. The project’s models demonstrated that optimal PV and storage deployment could improve resilience indices by over 11 percent, with dispatch strategies further enhancing outcomes, confirming both the technical effectiveness and economic feasibility of these approaches. Through its combined emphasis on rigorous modeling, community-focused planning, and community engagement, SAFER advances the state of resilience research while delivering direct benefits to rural communities. The project provides tools, guidelines, and resilience heatmaps that help utilities, local governments, and residents better anticipate disruptions, prioritize investments, and strengthen the capacity to withstand and recover from energy-related hazards. Furthermore, the developed HFG and GNN frameworks are designed for transferability, allowing them to be adapted for resilience planning in other communities with minimal retraining. This inductive learning capability provides a scalable pathway to extend the SAFER project’s impact. Thus, creating a foundation for a nationally applicable model of infrastructure resilience. Additionally, the HFG can also be extended to include other FEMA community lifelines.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Benchmark microgravity experiments and computations for 3D dendritic-array stability in directional solidification

In this study, we present a comprehensive quantitative analysis of stability bands for dendritic arrays during directional solidification of a transparent succinonitrile-0.46 wt % camphor alloy, spanning a broad range of pulling velocities. Taking advantage of the microgravity environment aboard the International Space Station where most convection effects are suppressed, we obtain unique measurements that quantify the stable primary spacing range of spatially extended three-dimensional dendritic array structures under purely diffusive growth conditions. Through carefully designed velocity jump experiments and detailed examination of sub-grain boundary dynamics, we characterize key instabilities, including elimination and tertiary branching, shedding new light on the mechanisms governing dynamic dendritic spacing selection in extended 3D arrays. Phase field simulations are performed to characterize the stability limits of dendritic array structures for quantitative comparison with the flight experiments. Although the simulations capture general trends, significant deviations are noted at the upper stability boundary, indicating the influence of additional, unexplored factors. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of dendritic growth dynamics and offer valuable benchmark data that could aid in refining predictive models and improving control of dendritic microstructures in metallurgical applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparing modelling approaches for a generic nuclear waste repository in salt

This paper contains a comparison of five modelling approaches for a simplified nuclear waste repository in a domal salt formation. It is the result of a four-year collaboration between five international teams on Task F of the DECOVALEX-2023 project on performance assessment modelling. The primary objectives of Task F are to build confidence in the models, methods, and software used for performance assessment (PA) of deep geologic nuclear waste repositories, and/or to bring to the fore additional research and development needed to improve PA methodologies. This work demonstrates how these objectives are accomplished through staged development and comparison of the models and methods used by participating teams in their PA frameworks. Participating teams made a wide range of model assumptions, ranging from compartmentalized networks to full 3D models of the salt formation and repository. Despite differences in the modelling strategies, all models indicate that salt compaction and diffusion of radionuclides in brine are key processes in the repository. For the isothermal spent nuclear fuel and vitrified waste scenario with multiple early failures considered, all models indicate little of the disposed radionuclides will migrate beyond the repository seal over the 100,000-year simulations. In general, the model output quantities have the largest differences over the short term and near the waste. Disparities between the models are believed to be due to differing simplifications from the conceptual model.

DECOVALEX↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating probabilistic deep learning methods for uncertainty quantification of temperature downscaling

Deep learning (DL) has emerged as a promising tool for downscaling coarse-resolution climate data to high-resolution outputs, enabling improved regional climate predictions. A critical aspect of DL-based downscaling is the incorporation of uncertainty quantification (UQ), which enhances the interpretability and reliability of predictions—key factors for climate risk assessment and decision-making. This study develops a DL model to downscale 2 m temperature across the contiguous United States using reanalysis datasets. We systematically evaluate three epistemic UQ methods—deep ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo dropout (MCD), and Flipout—based on their probabilistic accuracy, downscaling performance, sensitivity to geographical features, and computational efficiency. Results indicate that MCD generally outperforms Flipout and DEns in terms of calibration and downscaling accuracy. However, DEns demonstrate lower calibration errors in coastal regions, indicating its higher confidence within these areas. Flipout, in contrast, is more sensitive to elevation gradients and exhibits higher calibration errors in mountainous regions. Hence, the choice of UQ method for this task depends on the specific requirements of the application. For applications that prioritize overall calibration, downscaling accuracy, and computational efficiency, MCD is a strong candidate. These findings highlight the importance of selecting UQ methods based on application-specific requirements, such as geographical context and computational constraints. By addressing the trade-offs between UQ methods, this study provides actionable insights for improving the reliability, scalability, and utility of DL-based downscaling in climate science.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

2024 Incubator Final Report: Active Hybrid Mooring

This Incubator project has defined and developed a representation of an active hybrid mooring (AHM) system in Simulink to assess whether the speed and accuracy of AHM is sufficient to warrant further investigation in a larger project. We first built a representative mooring system for the VolturnUS-S 15MW floating offshore wind turbine (FOWT) in 1,000-meter water depth to provide baseline loads and displacements needed in the AHM system, with the results showing off-the-shelf actuators would be practical. We then defined model configurations for the numerical and physical substructures, using standalone MoorDyn v2 with a novel input strategy and chained hydraulic actuators represented in Simulink Simscape, respectively. The remainder of the project has focused on verifying the existing models for speed and accuracy against OpenFAST simulations, increasing their complexity to enable six degree of freedom (6DOF) operation, and connecting the numerical and physical substructures into a single holistic model. The verification phase of the project has shown promising results, though further refinement is needed to resolve accuracy discrepancies and for robust performance across a wider range of metocean conditions. The numerical model we developed is computationally stable and operates faster than real time using a time step of 0.01 seconds or shorter, indicating the model is likely fast enough for our AHM design to operate successfully. Additionally, the Simscape model of a hydraulic actuator operates with less than 0.3% relative error when actuating mooring loads from an OpenFAST simulation of the VolturnUS-S 1,000-meter mooring system. The aforementined refinements will be performed in the next year as a Continuing Incubator, with key remaining tasks include programming the predictor-corrector loop to minimize movement error, testing against more complex nonlinear wave cases, and expanding to enable loads from connected shared mooring lines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗