Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “internal variability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Megadroughts in Southwestern North America in ECHO-G Millennial Simulations and Their Comparison to Proxy Drought Reconstructions

Simulated hydroclimate variability in millennium-length forced transient and control simulations from the ECHAM and the global Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation (ECHO-G) coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) is analyzed and compared to 1000 years of reconstructed Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) variability from the North American Drought Atlas (NADA). The ability of the model to simulate megadroughts in the North American southwest is evaluated. (NASW: 25deg42.5degN, 125deg-105degW). Megadroughts in the ECHO-G AOGCM are found to be similar in duration and magnitude to those estimated from the NADA. The droughts in the forced simulation are not, however, temporally synchronous with those in the paleoclimate record, nor are there significant differences between the drought features simulated in the forced and control runs. These results indicate that model-simulated megadroughts can result from internal variability of the modeled climate system rather than as a response to changes in exogenous forcings. Although the ECHO-G AOGCM is capable of simulating megadroughts through persistent La Nina-like conditions in the tropical Pacific, other mechanisms can produce similarly extreme NASW moisture anomalies in the model. In particular, the lack of low-frequency coherence between NASW soil moisture and simulated modes of climate variability like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation during identified drought periods suggests that stochastic atmospheric variability can contribute significantly to the occurrence of simulated megadroughts in the NASW. These findings indicate that either an expanded paradigm is needed to understand multidecadal hydroclimate variability in the NASW or AOGCMs may incorrectly simulate the strength and/or dynamics of the connection between NASW hydroclimate variability and the tropical Pacific.

variability↗
NASA NTRS2001

Thresholds in Atmosphere-Soil Moisture Interactions: Results from Climate Model Studies

The potential predictability of the effects of warm season soil moisture anomalies over the central U.S. has been investigated using a series of GCM (Global Climate Model) experiments with the NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) CCM3 (Community Climate Model version 3)/LSM (Land Surface Model). Three different types of experiments have been made, all starting in either March (representing precursor conditions) or June (conditions at the onset of the warm season): (1) 'anomaly' runs with large, exaggerated initial soil moisture reductions, aimed at evaluating the physical mechanisms by which soil moisture can affect the atmosphere; (2) 'predictability' runs aimed at evaluating whether typical soil moisture initial anomalies (indicative of year-to-year variability) can have a significant effect, and if so, for how long; (3) 'threshold' runs aimed at evaluating if a soil moisture anomaly must be of a specific size (i.e., a threshold crossed) before a significant impact on the atmosphere is seen. The 'anomaly' runs show a large, long-lasting response in soil moisture and also quantities such as surface temperature, sea level pressure, and precipitation; effects persist for at least a year. The 'predictability' runs, on the other hand, show very little impact of the initial soil moisture anomalies on the subsequent evolution of soil moisture and other atmospheric parameters; internal variability is most important, with the initial state of the atmosphere (representing remote effects such as SST anomalies) playing a more minor role. The 'threshold' runs, devised to help resolve the dichotomy in 'anomaly' and 'predictability' results, suggest that, at least in CCM3/LSM, the vertical profile of soil moisture is the most important factor, and that deep soil zone anomalies exert a more powerful, long-lasting effect than do anomalies in the near surface soil zone. We therefore suggest that soil moisture feedbacks may be more important in explaining prolonged decadal to century-long droughts evident in the historic and recent prehistoric records, but less important on a seasonal to interannual time-scale.

Oglesby, Robert J.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Projected Changes to Hydroclimate Seasonality in the Continental United States

Future changes to the hydrological cycle are projected in a warming world, and any shifts in drought risk may prove extremely consequential for natural and human systems. In addition to long-term moistening, drying, or warming trends, perturbations to the annual cycle of regional hydroclimate variables may also have substantial impacts. We analyze projected changes in several hydroclimate variables across the continental United States, along with shifts in the amplitude and phase of their annual cycles. We find that even in regions where no robust change in the annual mean is expected, coherent changes to the annual cycle are projected. In particular, we identify robust regional phase shifts toward earlier arrival of peak evaporation in the northern regions, and peak runoff and total soil moisture in the western regions. Changes in the amplitude of the annual cycle of total and surface soil moisture are also projected, and reflect changes to the annual cycle in surface water supply and demand. Whether changes become detectable above the background noise of internal variability depends strongly on the future scenario considered, and significant changes to the annual cycle are largely avoided in the lowest-forcing scenario.

drought↗
NASA NTRS1999

An Assessment of the Impact of the 1997-98 El Nino on the Asian-Australian Monsoon

Using state-of-the-art satellite-gauge monthly rainfall estimate and optimally interpolated sea surface temperature (SST) data, we have assessed the 1997-98 AA-monsoon anomalies in terms of three basic causal factors: basin-scale SST, regional coupling, and internal variability. Singular Value Decomposition analyses of rainfall and SST are carried out globally over the entire tropics and regionally over the AA-monsoon domain. Contributions to monsoon rainfall predictability by various factors are evaluated from cumulative anomaly correlation with dominant regional SVD modes. Results reveal a dominant, large-scale monsoon-El Nino coupled mode with well-defined centers of action in the near-equatorial monsoon regions during the boreal summer and winter respectively. The observed 1997-98 AA-monsoon anomalies are found to be very complex with approximately 34% of the anomalies of the Asian (boreal) summer monsoon and 74% of the Australia (austral) monsoon attributable to basin-scale SST influence associated with El Nino. Regional coupled processes contribute an additional 19% and 10%, leaving about 47% and 16% due to internal dynamics for the boreal and austral monsoon respectively. For the boreal summer monsoon, it is noted that the highest monsoon predictability is not necessary associated with major El Nino events (e.g. 1997, 1982) but rather in non-El Nino years (e.g. 1980, 1988) when contributions from the regional coupled modes far exceed those from the basin-scale SST. The results suggest that in order to improve monsoon seasonal-to-interannual predictability, there is a need to exploit not only monsoon-El Nino relationship, but also intrinsic monsoon regional coupled processes.

Lau, K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Assessment of the 1997-1998 Asian Monsoon Anomalies

Using State-of-the-art satellite-gauge monthly rainfall estimate and optimally interpolated sea surface temperature (SST) data, we have assessed the 1997-98 Asian monsoon anomalies in terms of three basic causal factors: basin-scale SST, regional coupling, and internal variability. Singular Value Decomposition analysis of rainfall and SST are carried out globally over the entire tropics and regionally over the Asian monsoon domain. Contributions to monsoon rainfall predictability by various factors are evaluated from cumulative anomaly correlation with dominant regional SVD modes. Results reveal a dominant, large-scale monsoon-El Nino coupled mode with well-defined centers of action in the near-equatorial monsoon regions. it is noted that some subcontinental regions such as all-India, or arbitrarily chosen land regions over East Asia, while important socio-economically, are not near the centers of influence from El Nino, hence are not necessarily representative of the response of the entire monsoon region to El Nino. The observed 1997-98 Asian monsoon anomalies are found to be very complex with approximately 34% of the anomalies attributable to basin- scale SST influence associated with El Nino. Regional coupled processes contribute an additional 19%, leaving about 47% due to internal dynamics. Also noted is that the highest monsoon predictability is not necessary associated with major El Nino events (e.g. 1997, 1982) but rather in non-El Nino years (e.g. 1980, 1988) when contributions from the regional coupled modes far exceed those from the basin-scale SST. The results suggest that in order to improve monsoon seasonal-to-interannual predictability, there is a need to exploit not only monsoon-El Nino relationship, but also monsoon regional coupled processes and their modulation by long-term climate change.

Lau, William K.-M.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Climate Change Amplification of Natural Drought Variability: The Historic Mid-Twentieth Century North American Drought in a Warmer World

In the mid-twentieth century (1948-1957), North America experienced a severe drought forced by cold tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). If these SSTs recurred, it would likely cause another drought, but in a world substantially warmer than the one in which the original event took place. We use a 20-member ensemble of the GISS climate model to investigate the drought impacts of a repetition of the mid-twentieth century SST anomalies in a significantly warmer world. Using observed SSTs and mid-twentieth century forcings (Hist-DRGHT), the ensemble reproduces the observed precipitation deficits during the cold season (October–March) across the Southwest, Southern Plains, and Mexico and during the warm season (April–September) in the Southern Plains and the Southeast. Under analogous SST forcing and enhanced warming (Fut-DRGHT, ≈3 K above pre-industrial), cold season precipitation deficits are ameliorated in the Southwest and Southern Plains and intensified in the Southeast, while during the warm season precipitation deficits are enhanced across North America. This occurs primarily from greenhouse gas forced trends in mean precipitation, rather than changes in SST teleconnections. Cold season runoff deficits in Fut-DRGHT are significantly amplified over the Southeast, but otherwise similar to Hist-DRGHT over the Southwest and Southern Plains. In the warm season, however, runoff and soil moisture deficits during Fut-DRGHT are significantly amplified across the southern US, a consequence of enhanced precipitation deficits and increased evaporative losses due to warming. Our study highlights how internal variability and greenhouse gas forced trends in hydroclimate are likely to interact over North America, including how changes in both precipitation and evaporative demand will affect future drought.

Benjamin I Cook↗
NASA NTRS1973

Aerodynamic characteristics of a large-scale model with a swept wing and a jet flap having an expandable duct

The data from an investigation of the aerodynamic characteristics of the expandable duct-jet flap concept are presented. The investigation was made using a large-scale model in the Ames 40- by 80-foot Wind Tunnel. The expandable duct-jet flap concept uses a lower surface, split flap and an upper surface, Fowler flap to form an internal, variable area cavity for the blowing air. Small amounts of blowing are used on the knee of the upper surface flap and the knee of a short-chord, trailing edge control flap. The bulk of the blowing is at the trailing edge. The flap could extend the full span of the model wing or over the inboard part only, with blown ailerons outboard. Primary configurations tested were two flap angles, typical of takeoff and landing; symmetric control flap deflections, primarily for improved landing performance; and asymmetric aileron and control flap deflections, for lateral control.

Aiken, T. N.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Formulation of detailed consumables management models for the development (preoperational) period of advanced space transportation system. Volume 1: Detailed requirements for the mission planning processor

Detailed requirements for the mission planning processor are documented. The mission planning processor is a user oriented tool for consumables management and is part of the total consumables subsystem management concept. A quasi top-down approach was applied to the design of the mission planning processor. Interface requirements, input/output, and data base concepts were considered before computational processing. Existing analytical models were investigated for applicability before new models were developed. The mission planning processor was designed for an interactive system using demand terminals for input/outputdisplay and interfacing with an updateable mission data bank. The control and support routines provide the user interface, peripheral data handling, program control, and support functions required by the mission planning processor for execution on an interactive system. A description, interface requirements, definition of internal variables, listing of input data, processing flow diagram, and listing of output data are presented for each routine.

Connelly, L. C.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Real time digital propulsion system simulation for manned flight simulators

A real time digital simulation of a STOL propulsion system was developed which generates significant dynamics and internal variables needed to evaluate system performance and aircraft interactions using manned flight simulators. The simulation ran at a real-to-execution time ratio of 8.8. The model was used in a piloted NASA flight simulator program to evaluate the simulation technique and the propulsion system digital control. The simulation is described and results shown. Limited results of the flight simulation program are also presented.

Mihaloew, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1981

An endochronic theory for transversely isotropic fibrous composites

A rational methodology of modelling both nonlinear and elastic dissipative response of transversely isotropic fibrous composites is developed and illustrated with the aid of the observed response of graphite-polyimide off-axis coupons. The methodology is based on the internal variable formalism employed within the text of classical irreversible thermodynamics and entails extension of Valanis' endochronic theory to transversely isotropic media. Applicability of the theory to prediction of various response characteristics of fibrous composites is illustrated by accurately modelling such often observed phenomena as: stiffening reversible behavior along fiber direction; dissipative response in shear and transverse tension characterized by power-laws with different hardening exponents; permanent strain accumulation; nonlinear unloading and reloading; and stress-interaction effects.

Pindera, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Operator split methods in the numerical solution of the finite deformation elastoplastic dynamic problem

The spatial formulation of the elastoplastic dynamic problem for finite deformations is considered. A thermodynamic argument leads to an additive decomposition of the spatial rate of deformation tensor and allows an operator split of the evolutionary equations of the problem into elastic and plastic parts. This operator split is taken as the basis for the definition of a global product algorithm. In the context of finite element discretization the product algorithm entails, for every time step, the solution of a nonlinear elastodynamic problem followed by the application of plastic algorithms that operate on the stresses and internal variables at the integration points and bring in the plastic constitutive equations. Suitable plastic algorithms are discussed for the cases of perfect and hardening plasticity and viscoplasticity. The proposed formalism does not depend on any notion of smoothness of the yield surface and is applicable to arbitrary convex elastic regions, with or without corners. The stabiity properties of the global product algorithm are shown to be identical to those of the algorithm used for the integration of the nonlinear elastodynamic problem. Numerical examples illustrate the accuracy of the method.

Pinsky, P. M.↗
NASA NTRS1983

An endochronic model for the response of unidirectional composites under off-axis tensile load

A methodology of modelling both nonlinear elastic and dissipative response of transversely isotropic fibrous composites is developed and illustrated with the aid of the observed response of graphite-polyimide off-axis coupons. The methodology is based on the internal variable formalism employed within the text of classical irreversible thermodynamics and entails extension of Valanis' endochronic theory to transversely isotropic media. Applicability of the theory to prediction of various response characteristics of fibrous composites is illustrated by accurately modelling such often observed phenomena as: stiffening reversible behavior along fiber direction; dissipative response in shear and transverse tension characterized by power-laws with different hardening exponents; permanent strain accumulation; nonlinear unloading and reloading; and stress-interaction effects.

Pindera, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Dislocation dynamics during the growth of silicon ribbon

The thermal viscoplastic stresses and the dislocation densities in silicon ribbon are computed for an axially changing thermal profile by using an iterative finite difference method. A material constitutive equation (Haasen-Sumino model) which involves an internal variable (mobile dislocation density) is used. The results are interpreted as showing that there is a maximum width of silicon ribbon that can be grown when viscoplasticity and dislocations are considered. This maximum width limitation does not exist if the material behavior is elastic.

Dillon, O. W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1986

New predictions methods for composites hygrothermal behavior

The methodology in this paper allows prediction of the thermal expansion and swelling of a composite material to temperature and moisture variations which typically occur in a launch environment. It is demonstrated that constitutive equations for moisture absorption and moisture-induced dimensional changes can be obtained with an internal variable method which is rooted in the theory of irreversible thermodynamics. Realism is injected into the model through the concept of free volume.

Hiel, C. C.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Phenomenological modeling of hardening and thermal recovery in metals

Modeling of hardening and thermal recovery in metals is considered within the context of unified elastic-viscoplastic theories. Specifically, the choices of internal variables and hardening measures, and the resulting hardening response obtained by incorporating saturation-type evolution equations into two general forms of the flow law are examined. Based on the analytical considerations, a procedure for delineating directional and isotropic hardening from uniaxial hardening data has been developed for the Bodner-Partom model and applied to a nickel-base superalloy, B1900 + Hf. Predictions based on the directional hardening properties deduced from the monotonic loading data are shown to be in good agreement with results of cyclic tests.

Chan, K. S.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Constitutive modeling for isotropic materials

The objective of the program is to evaluate and develop existing constitutive models for use in finite-element structural analysis of turbine engine hot section components. The class of constitutive equation studied is considered unified in that all inelastic deformation including plasticity, creep, and stress relaxation are treated in a single term rather than a classical separation of plasticity (time independent) and creep (time dependent) behavior. The unified theories employed also do not utilize the classical yield surface or plastic potential concept. The models are constructed from an appropriate flow law, a scalar kinetic relation between strain rate, temperature and stress, and evolutionary equations for internal variables describing strain or work hardening, both isotropic and directional (kinematic). This and other studies have shown that the unified approach is particularly suited for determining the cyclic behavior of superalloy type blade and vane materials and is entirely compatible with three-dimensional inelastic finite-element formulations. The behavior was examined of a second nickel-base alloy, MAR-M247, and compared it with the Bodner-Partom model, further examined procedures for determining the material-specific constants in the models, and exercised the MARC code for a turbine blade under simulated flight spectrum loading. Results are summarized.

Lindholm, Ulric S.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Refinements in a viscoplastic model

A thermodynamically admissible theory of viscoplasticity with two internal variables (a back stress and a drag strength) is presented. Six material functions characterize a specific viscoplastic model. In the pursuit of compromise between accuracy and simplicity, a model is developed that is a hybrid of two existing viscoplastic models. A limited number of applications of the model to Al, Cu, and Ni are presented. A novel implicit integration method is also discussed. Applications are made to obtain solutions using this viscoplastic model.

Freed, A. D.↗