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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

The role of the tropical Atlantic in tropical Pacific climate variability

Abstract Interactions between Atlantic and Pacific Oceans can affect tropical Pacific variability and its global impacts at both interannual and decadal timescales. Thus, a deepened understanding of the coupled Atlantic-Pacific interactions is needed. While possible dynamical mechanisms by which the Atlantic can influence the Pacific have been identified, the effectiveness of those mechanisms is difficult to establish using climate model simulations where Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are prescribed and Pacific feedbacks cannot be realistically included. As an alternative approach, here we use a Linear Inverse Model (LIM) trained on observations and capable of correctly reproducing the observed statistics, to assess the relative role of the Atlantic-to-Pacific and Pacific-to-Atlantic influences on tropical Pacific variability. Our results indicate that Atlantic internal variability can enhance interannual SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific, and decadal SST anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific, while Pacific influences on the Atlantic significantly damp tropical Pacific decadal variability. This methodological framework could also be used to assess climate model fidelity in representing tropical basin interactions, helping to reconcile existing differences among models’ results.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

A non-isothermal breakage-damage model for plastic-bonded granular materials incorporating temperature, pressure, and rate dependencies

Plastic-bonded granular materials (PBM) are widely used in industrial sectors, including building construction, abrasive applications, and defense applications such as plastic-bonded explosives. The mechanical behavior of PBM is highly nonlinear, irreversible, rate dependent, and temperature sensitive governed by various micromechanical attributions such as grain crushing and binder damage. This paper presents a thermodynamically consistent, microstructure-informed constitutive model to capture these characteristic behaviors of PBM. Key features of the model include a breakage internal variable to upscale the grain-scale information to the continuum level and to predict grain size evolution under mechanical loading. In addition, a damage internal state variable is introduced to account for the damage, deterioration, and debonding of the binder matrix upon loading. Temperature is taken as a fundamental external state variable to handle non-isothermal loading paths. The proposed model is able to capture with good accuracy several important aspects of the mechanical properties of PBM, such as pressure-dependent elasticity, pressure-dependent yield strength, brittle-to-ductile transition, temperature dependency, and rate dependency in the post-yielding regime. Furthermore, the model is validated against multiple published datasets obtained from confined and unconfined compression tests, covering various PBM compositions, confining pressures, temperatures, and strain rates.

Breakage↗
DOE OSTI2025

AMOC Variability in Climate Models and Its Dependence on the Mean State

Abstract Understanding internal variability of the climate system is critical when isolating internal and anthropogenically forced signals. Here, we investigate the modes of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ( AMOC ) variability using perturbation experiments with the Institut Pierre‐Simon Laplace's (IPSL) coupled model and compare them to Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) pre‐industrial control simulations. We identify two characteristic modes of variability—decadal‐to‐multidecadal ( DMD var ) and centennial ( CEN var ). The former is driven largely by temperature anomalies in the subpolar North Atlantic, while the latter is driven by salinity in the western subpolar North Atlantic. The amplitude of each mode scales linearly with the mean AMOC strength in the IPSL experiments. The DMD var amplitude correlates well with the AMOC mean strength across CMIP6 models, while the CEN var mode does not. These findings suggest that the strength of DMD var depends robustly on the North Atlantic mean state, while the CEN var mode may be model‐dependent.

Ferster, Brady S. [LOCEAN‐IPSL Sorbonne Université↗
NASA NTRS2002

A 12-year (1987-1998) Ensemble Simulation of the US Climate with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM

The variable-resolution stretched-grid (SG) GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) GCM has been used for limited ensemble integrations with a relatively coarse, 60 to 100 km, regional resolution over the U.S. The experiments have been run for the 12-year period, 1987-1998, that includes the recent ENSO cycles. Initial conditions 1-2 days apart are used for ensemble members. The goal of the experiments is analyzing the long-term SG-GCM ensemble integrations in terms of their potential in reducing the uncertainties of regional climate simulation while producing realistic mesoscales. The ensemble integration results are analyzed for both prognostic and diagnostic fields. A special attention is devoted to analyzing the variability of precipitation over the U.S. The internal variability of the SG-GCM has been assessed. The ensemble means appear to be closer to the verifying analyses than the individual ensemble members. The ensemble means capture realistic mesoscale patterns, especially those of induced by orography. Two ENSO cycles have been analyzed in terms their impact on the U.S. climate, especially on precipitation. The ability of the SG-GCM simulations to produce regional climate anomalies has been confirmed. However, the optimal size of the ensembles depending on fine regional resolution used, is still to be determined. The SG-GCM ensemble simulations are performed as a preparation or a preliminary stage for the international SGMIP (Stretched-Grid Model Intercomparison Project) that is under way with participation of the major centers and groups employing the SG-approach for regional climate modeling.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Understanding Model-Observation Discrepancies in Satellite Retrievals of Atmospheric Temperature Using GISS ModelE

We examine multiple factors in the representation of satellite-retrieved atmospheric temperature diagnostics in historical simulations of climate change during the satellite era (specifically 1979–2021) using GISS ModelE contributions to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6). The tropospheric and stratospheric trends in these diagnostics are affected by greenhouse gases (notably carbon dioxide and ozone), coupling with the ocean, volcanic aerosols, solar activity and compositional and dynamic feedbacks. We explore the impacts of internal variability, changing forcing specifications, composition interactivity, the quality of the stratospheric circulation, vertical resolution, and possible impacts of the mis-specification of volcanic aerosol optical depths. Overall temperature trends throughout the satellite period are well captured, but discrepancies at all levels exist and have multiple distinct causes. We find that stratospheric comparisons (using Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) retrievals and successor instruments) are most affected by variations in the representation of ozone depletion and feedbacks, followed by the volcanic signals. Tropospheric skill (using the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) retrievals) is affected by the trends in ocean heat uptake and tropospheric aerosols, but also by the representation of stratospheric processes through the impact of the Brewer-Dobson circulation on the height of the tropical tropopause. We demonstrate that no single factor is the dominant cause of the discrepancies and that almost all observations lie within the broad envelope of structural uncertainty.

satellite retrievals of atmospheric temperature↗
NASA NTRS1990

A model for predicting damage induced fatigue life of laminated composite structural components

This paper presents a model for predicting the life of laminated composite structural components subjected to fatigue induced microstructural damage. The model uses the concept of continuum damage mechanics, wherein the effects of microcracks are incorporated into a damage dependent lamination theory instead of treating each crack as an internal boundary. Internal variables are formulated to account for the effects of both matrix cracks and internal delaminations. Evolution laws for determining the damage variables as functions of ply stresses are proposed, and comparisons of predicted damage evolution are made to experiment. In addition, predicted stiffness losses, as well as ply stresses are shown as functions of damage state for a variety of stacking sequences.

Allen, David H.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Internal vibrations of a molecule consisting of rigid segments. I - Non-interacting internal vibrations

For molecular crystals, a procedure is proposed for interpreting experimentally determined atomic mean square anisotropic displacement parameters (ADPs) in terms of the overall molecular vibration together with internal vibrations with the assumption that the molecule consists of a set of linked rigid segments. The internal librations (molecular torsional or bending modes) are described using the variable internal coordinates of the segmented body. With this procedure, the experimental ADPs obtained from crystal structure determinations involving six small molecules (sym-trinitrobenzene, adenosine, tetra-cyanoquinodimethane, benzamide, alpha-cyanoacetic acid hydrazide and N-acetyl-L-tryptophan methylamide) have been analyzed. As a consequence, vibrational corrections to the bond lengths and angles of the molecule are calculated as well as the frequencies and force constants for each internal torsional or bending vibration.

He, X. M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

RACORO Extended-Term Aircraft Observations of Boundary-Layer Clouds

Small boundary-layer clouds are ubiquitous over many parts of the globe and strongly influence the Earths radiative energy balance. However, our understanding of these clouds is insufficient to solve pressing scientific problems. For example, cloud feedback represents the largest uncertainty amongst all climate feedbacks in general circulation models (GCM). Several issues complicate understanding boundary-layer clouds and simulating them in GCMs. The high spatial variability of boundary-layer clouds poses an enormous computational challenge, since their horizontal dimensions and internal variability occur at spatial scales much finer than the computational grids used in GCMs. Aerosol-cloud interactions further complicate boundary-layer cloud measurement and simulation. Additionally, aerosols influence processes such as precipitation and cloud lifetime. An added complication is that at small scales (order meters to 10s of meters) distinguishing cloud from aerosol is increasingly difficult, due to the effects of aerosol humidification, cloud fragments and photon scattering between clouds.

boundary layer↗
DOE OSTI2025

Disentangling climate and policy uncertainties for the Colorado River post-2026 operations

Abstract Lakes Mead and Powell in the Colorado River Basin underpin water and hydropower supply for the western United States. While the policies currently regulating the basin will expire by 2026, planning remains challenging due to intertwined climate variability and policy uncertainties. Based on streamflow projections from 10 dynamically downscaled CMIP6 global climate models and unique methods that add and remove internal variability, we evaluate future conditions at Powell and Mead under existing and alternative policies. Due to projected streamflow declines, under existing policy, both reservoirs will face substantial risks (>80% likelihood) of reaching dead pool before 2060. Adopting recently proposed alternative policies reduces but doesn’t eliminate such risks. All policies also exhibit tipping points where reservoir levels can change rapidly with a slight change in streamflow. A sustainable policy may require larger reductions to further reduce the reservoirs’ dead pool risks and provide better buffers from sudden changes.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
NASA NTRS2010

Forced and Unforced Variability of Twentieth Century North American Droughts and Pluvials

Research on the forcing of drought and pluvial events over North America is dominated by general circulation model experiments that often have operational limitations (e.g., computational expense, ability to simulate relevant processes, etc). We use a statistically based modeling approach to investigate sea surface temperature (SST) forcing of the twentieth century pluvial (1905-1917) and drought (1932-1939, 1948-1957, 1998-2002) events. A principal component (PC) analysis of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the North American Drought Atlas separates the drought variability into five leading modes accounting for 62% of the underlying variance. Over the full period spanning these events (1900-2005), the first three PCs significantly correlate with SSTs in the equatorial Pacific (PC 1), North Pacific (PC 2), and North Atlantic (PC 3), with spatial patterns (as defined by the empirical orthogonal functions) consistent with our understanding of North American drought responses to SST forcing. We use a large ensemble statistical modeling approach to determine how successfully we can reproduce these drought/pluvial events using these three modes of variability. Using Pacific forcing only (PCs 1-2), we are able to reproduce the 1948-1957 drought and 1905-1917 pluvial above a 95% random noise threshold in over 90% of the ensemble members; the addition of Atlantic forcing (PCs 1-2-3) provides only marginal improvement. For the 1998-2002 drought, Pacific forcing reproduces the drought above noise in over 65% of the ensemble members, with the addition of Atlantic forcing increasing the number passing to over 80%. The severity of the drought, however, is underestimated in the ensemble median, suggesting this drought intensity can only be achieved through internal variability or other processes. Pacific only forcing does a poor job of reproducing the 1932-1939 drought pattern in the ensemble median, and less than one third of ensemble members exceed the noise threshold (28%). Inclusion of Atlantic forcing improves the ensemble median drought pattern and nearly doubles the number of ensemble members passing the noise threshold (52%). Even with the inclusion of Atlantic forcing, the intensity of the simulated 1932-1939 drought is muted, and the drought itself extends too far into the southwest and southern Great Plains. To an even greater extent than the 1998-2002 drought, these results suggest much of the variance in the 1932-1939 drought is dependent on processes other than SST forcing. This study highlights the importance of internal noise and non SST processes for hydroclimatic variability over North America, complementing existing research using general circulation models.

Cook, Benjamin I.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Solar Migrating Diurnal Tide in the Upper Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere from SD-WACCM-X, Aura/MLS, and TIMED/SABER

Solar heating on the rotating Earth is a fundamental forcing of atmospheric tidal waves. The migrating diurnal tide, propagating from the troposphere to the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere, is a large global disturbance that drives most of the daily variations in dynamics, thermal structures, chemistry, as well as atmospheric compositions. In this study, we present a comprehensive analysis of the (1,1) propagating diurnal tides derived from multi-year MLS and SABER observations, to characterize and better understand interannual and long-term tidal variability in the upper atmosphere. Although the (1,1) tide is driven by the solar heating, its interannual variations are largely determined by the internal variability of Earth’s climate system. The tidal amplitudes derived from MLS and SABER data agree well with each other in terms of monthly climatology and interannual variations, showing a consistent seasonal cycle and modulations from the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO). The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) analysis, employed to extract the low frequency variations, also reveals an ENSO-like (42 months) influence on tidal amplitudes in the upper mesosphere. While their (1,1) tidal amplitudes are less affected by the solar cycle, the mean mixing ratio of carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3) is significantly modulated by the 11-year solar cycle due to their UV-dependent photochemistry.

mesosphere↗
NASA NTRS1985

Experimental performance of a microwave cavity plasma disk ion source

The detailed description and performance characteristics of a microwave ion source are presented. This ion source utilizes an internally tuned, single-mode (or selective multimode) cylindrical cavity applicator to focus and match microwave energy into a disk-shaped discharge zone. The combination of mode focus control and variable, internal cavity matching allows the efficient operation and beam extraction over a wide range of pressures, powers and gaseous inputs. Experimental measurements of ion beam current versus accelerating voltage and input microwave power in xenon and oxygen gas are presented. Ion source specific energy and mass utilization versus experimental variables are also determined. The experimental performance demonstrates the ability of this ion source to extract an ion beam with a well matched, stable, and continuous operation over a wide range of input gases, low pressures, and over input gas flow rates in excess of 100 to a few sccm. Double Langmuir probe measurements in xenon gas indicate high degrees of ionization, and electron and ion concentrations in excess of 100 critical densities in the microwave discharge zone. This ion source has many potential uses such as spacecraft electric propulsion, material ion beam processing, and neutral beam ion sources.

Root, J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Observed and Projected Changes of Global Monsoons: Current Status and Future Perspectives

The global monsoon system, encompassing the Asian-Australian, African, and American monsoons, sustains two-thirds of the world’s population by regulating water resources and agriculture. Monsoon anomalies pose severe risks, including floods and droughts. Recent research associated with the implementation of the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project under the umbrella of CMIP6 has advanced our understanding of its historical variability and driving mechanisms. Observational data reveal a 20th-century shift: increased rainfall pre-1950s, followed by aridification and partial recovery post-1980s, driven by both internal variability (e.g., Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) and external forcings (greenhouse gases, aerosols), while ENSO drives interannual variability through ocean-atmosphere interactions. Future projections under greenhouse forcing suggest long-term monsoon intensification, though regional disparities and model uncertainties persist. Models indicate robust trends but struggle to quantify extremes, where thermodynamic effects (warming-induced moisture rise) uniformly boost heavy rainfall, while dynamical shifts (circulation changes) create spatial heterogeneity. Volcanic eruptions and proposed solar radiation modification (SRM) further complicate predictions: tropical eruptions suppress monsoons, whereas high-latitude events alter cross-equatorial flows, highlighting unresolved feedbacks. The emergent constraint approach is booming in terms of correcting future projections and reducing uncertainty with respect to the global monsoons. Critical challenges remain. Model biases and sparse 20th-century observational data hinder accurate attribution. The interplay between natural variability and anthropogenic forcings, along with nonlinear extreme precipitation risks under warming, demands deeper mechanistic insights. Additionally, SRM’s regional impacts and hemispheric monsoon interactions require systematic evaluation. Addressing these gaps necessitates enhanced observational networks, refined climate models, and interdisciplinary efforts to disentangle multiscale drivers, ultimately improving resilience strategies for monsoon-dependent regions.

climate extreme events↗
NASA NTRS1993

Shuttle orbiter with telescoping main propulsion unit and payload

An improved Space Shuttle with variable internal volume is provided. The Space Shuttle Orbiter includes a telescoping main propulsion unit. This main propulsion unit contains the main rocket engines and fuel tanks and telescopes into the Space Shuttle. A variable cavity is located between this unit and the crew compartment. Accordingly, the positioning of the telescoping main propulsion unit determines the volume of the variable cavity. Thus, the volume of the variable length of the entire Space Shuttle may be increased or decreased to achieve desired configurations for optimal storage. In one embodiment of the invention, the payload also telescopes within the variable cavity.

Macconochie, Ian O.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

M2-SCREAM: A Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis of Aura MLS

Stratospheric composition and transport patterns are changing because of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and declining levels of ozone depleting substances. Superimposed on forced trends are: dynamical variability at a range of time scales and unforeseen perturbations such as those resulting from injections of volcanic material and smoke from PyroCb events. Chemical reanalyses can be powerful tools for studying the composition of the stratosphere and disentangling forced responses from internal variability. This presentation introduces a new chemical reanalysis of stratospheric constituents developed and produced at NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) using the recently developed GMAO Constituent Data Assimilation System. Called the MERRA-2 Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis with Aura MLS (M2-SCREAM), this reanalysis consists of assimilated global three-dimensional fields of stratospheric ozone, water vapor, hydrogen chloride (HCl), nitric acid (HNO3) and nitrous oxide (N2O) mixing ratios and covers the period since the beginning of MLS observations in September 2004 to the present. M2-SCREAM assimilates version 4.2 MLS profiles of the five constituents alongside total ozone column from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument. The dynamics and tropospheric water vapor are constrained by assimilated meteorological fields from MERRA-2. The assimilated constituent fields and meteorology are provided to users at a 50-km horizontal resolution and a three-hourly frequency. Monthly analysis uncertainties and flags are also provided to the users. M2-SCREAM is an accurate and dynamically consistent high-resolution data record of the five constituents, all of which are of primary importance to stratospheric chemistry and transport studies. We will present a description of M2-SCREAM and selected results of a process-based evaluation of this product using independent data. As an illustration, we will discuss the perturbation to stratospheric composition from the eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai in January 2022 as seen in the reanalysis. We will also propose potential scientific applications of M2-SCREAM and outline plans for an upcoming comprehensive composition reanalysis that is being developed at NASA GMAO.

MERRA-2↗
NASA NTRS2020

Influence of Sea-Ice Anomalies on Antarctic Precipitation Using Source Attribution in the Community Earth System Model

We conduct sensitivity experiments using a general circulation model that has an explicit water source tagging capability forced by prescribed composites of pre-industrial sea-ice concentrations (SICs) and corresponding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to understand the impact of sea-ice anomalies on regional evaporation, moisture transport and source–receptor relationships for Antarctic precipitation in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. Surface sensible heat fluxes, evaporation and column-integrated water vapor are larger over Southern Ocean (SO) areas with lower SICs. Changes in Antarctic precipitation and its source attribution with SICs have a strong spatial variability. Among the tagged source regions, the Southern Ocean (south of 50∘ S) contributes the most (40 %) to the Antarctic total precipitation, followed by more northerly ocean basins, most notably the South Pacific Ocean (27%), southern Indian Ocean (16 %) and South Atlantic Ocean (11 %). Comparing two experiments prescribed with high and low pre-industrial SICs, respectively, the annual mean Antarctic precipitation is about 150 Gt yr−1 (or 6 %) more in the lower SIC case than in the higher SIC case. This difference is larger than the model-simulated interannual variability in Antarctic precipitation (99 Gt yr−1). The contrast in contribution from the Southern Ocean, 102 Gt yr−1, is even more significant compared to the interannual variability of 35 Gt yr−1 in Antarctic precipitation that originates from the Southern Ocean. The horizontal transport pathways from individual vapor source regions to Antarctica are largely determined by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Vapor from lower-latitude source regions takes elevated pathways to Antarctica. In contrast, vapor from the Southern Ocean moves southward within the lower troposphere to the Antarctic continent along moist isentropes that are largely shaped by local ambient conditions and coastal topography. This study also highlights the importance of atmospheric dynamics in affecting the thermodynamic impact of sea-ice anomalies associated with natural variability on Antarctic precipitation. Our analyses of the seasonal contrast in changes of basin-scale evaporation, moisture flux and precipitation suggest that the impact of SIC anomalies on regional Antarctic precipitation depends on dynamic changes that arise from SIC–SST perturbations along with internal variability. The latter appears to have a more significant effect on the moisture transport in austral winter than in summer.

Wang, Hailong↗
NASA NTRS2015

Sensitivity to Factors Underlying the Hiatus

Recent trends in global mean surface air temperature fall outside the 90 range predicted by models using the CMIP5 forcings and scenarios; this recent period of muted warming is dubbed the hiatus. The hiatus has attracted broad attention in both the popular press and the scientific literature, primarily because of its perceived implications for understanding long-term trends. Many hypotheses have been offered to explain the warming slowdown during the hiatus, and comprehensive studies of this period across multiple variables and spatial scales will likely improve our understanding of the physical mechanisms driving global temperature change and variability.We argue, however, that decadal temperature trends by themselves are unlikely to constrain future trajectories of global mean temperature and that the hiatus does not significantly revise our understanding of overall climate sensitivity. Instead, we demonstrate that, because of the poorly constrained nature of the hiatus, model-observation disagreements over this period may be resolvable via uncertainties in the observations, modeled internal variability, forcing estimates, or (more likely) some combination of all three factors. We define the hiatus interval as 1998-2012, endpoints judiciously chosen to minimize observed warming by including the large 1998 El Nio event and excluding 2014, an exceptionally warm year. Such choices are fundamentally subjective and cannot be considered random, so any probabilistic statements regarding the likelihood of this occurring need to be made carefully. Using this definition, the observed global temperature trend estimates from four datasets fall outside the 5-95 interval predicted by the CMIP5 models. Here we explore some of the plausible explanations for this discrepancy, and show that no unique explanation is likely to fully account for the hiatus.

trends↗