Burner 2/improved Centaur integration study. Volume 2 - Costs and schedules Final report
Planning level costs and program schedule for incorporating Burner 2 on Titan/Centaur launch vehicles
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Advanced Modular Power Approach to Affordable, Supportable Space Systems
Recent studies of missions to the Moon, Mars and Near Earth Asteroids (NEA) indicate that these missions often involve several distinct separately launched vehicles that must ultimately be integrated together in-flight and operate as one unit. Therefore, it is important to see these vehicles as elements of a larger segmented spacecraft rather than separate spacecraft flying in formation. The evolution of large multi-vehicle exploration architecture creates the need (and opportunity) to establish a global power architecture that is common across all vehicles. The Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Modular Power System (AMPS) project managed by NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) is aimed at establishing the modular power system architecture that will enable power systems to be built from a common set of modular building blocks. The project is developing, demonstrating and evaluating key modular power technologies that are expected to minimize non-recurring development costs, reduce recurring integration costs, as well as, mission operational and support costs. Further, modular power is expected to enhance mission flexibility, vehicle reliability, scalability and overall mission supportability. The AMPS project not only supports multi-vehicle architectures but should enable multi-mission capability as well. The AMPS technology development involves near term demonstrations involving developmental prototype vehicles and field demonstrations. These operational demonstrations not only serve as a means of evaluating modular technology but also provide feedback to developers that assure that they progress toward truly flexible and operationally supportable modular power architecture.
Oeftering, Richard C.↗
Update on Multi-Variable Parametric Cost Models for Ground and Space Telescopes
Parametric cost models can be used by designers and project managers to perform relative cost comparisons between major architectural cost drivers and allow high-level design trades; enable cost-benefit analysis for technology development investment; and, provide a basis for estimating total project cost between related concepts. This paper reports on recent revisions and improvements to our ground telescope cost model and refinements of our understanding of space telescope cost models. One interesting observation is that while space telescopes are 50X to 100X more expensive than ground telescopes, their respective scaling relationships are similar. Another interesting speculation is that the role of technology development may be different between ground and space telescopes. For ground telescopes, the data indicates that technology development tends to reduce cost by approximately 50% every 20 years. But for space telescopes, there appears to be no such cost reduction because we do not tend to re-fly similar systems. Thus, instead of reducing cost, 20 years of technology development may be required to enable a doubling of space telescope capability. Other findings include: mass should not be used to estimate cost; spacecraft and science instrument costs account for approximately 50% of total mission cost; and, integration and testing accounts for only about 10% of total mission cost.
Stahl, H. Philip↗
Operations engineering: Applying hands-on experience to the development process
The concepts behind operations engineering as applied to the requirements, design, development and testing of data processing systems are presented, together with the associated benefits. The objective of operations engineering is to reduce the overall life cycle costs by integrating operations experience with the development process. To achieve this goal, operations engineering seeks to reduce the development costs by that assuring operational requirements are incorporated into the design and development process as early as possible, and reduce the operational costs by decreasing operations staffing requirements and other related costs through improved system capabilities. The areas for improved system capabilities include: system recovery; data recovery; fault isolation; system operability; system flexibility; system automation; and system reporting. It is described how operations engineering is integrated with the development process, and the difficulties and misconceptions experienced in using operations engineering are discussed.
Alcott, Gary↗
Integrated Manned Interplanetary Spacecraft Concept Definition. Volume 5 - Program Plans and Costs Final Report
Program plans and costs for recommended integrated manned interplanetary mission systems
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Solar powered multipurpose remotely powered aircraft
Environmental problems such as the depletion of the ozone layer and air pollution demand a change in traditional means of propulsion that is sensitive to the ecology. Solar-powered propulsion is a favorable alternative that is both ecologically harmless as well as cost effective. Integration of solar energy into designs ranging from futuristic vehicles to heating is, therefore, beneficial to society. The design and construction of a Multipurpose Remotely Piloted Vehicle (MPRPV) seeks to verify the feasibility of using solar propulsion as a primary fuel source. This task has been a year-long effort by a group of eight students, divided into four teams, each dealing with different aspects of the design. The aircraft was designed to take off, climb to the design altitude, fly in a sustained figure-eight flight path, and cruise for approximately one hour. This mission requires flight at Reynolds numbers between 150,000 and 200,000 and demands special considerations in the aerodynamic design to achieve flight in this regime. Optimal performance requires a lightweight configuration with both structural integrity and maximum power availability. The structural design and choice of solar cells for the propulsion were governed by weight, efficiency, and cost considerations. The final design is an MPRPV weighing 35 N that cruises at 7 m/s at the design altitude of 50 m. The configuration includes a wing composed of balsa and foam NACA 6409 airfoil sections and carbon fiber spars, a tail of similar construction, and a truss structure fuselage. The propulsion system consists of 98 12.5 percent-efficient solar cells donated by Mobil Solar, a NiCad battery for energy storage, and a folding propeller regulated by a lightweight and efficient control system. The airfoils and propeller chosen for the design were researched and tested during the design process.
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NASA advanced aeronautics design solar powered remotely piloted vehicle
Environmental problems such as the depletion of the ozone layer and air pollution demand a change in traditional means of propulsion that is sensitive to the ecology. Solar powered propulsion is a favorable alternative that is both ecologically harmless as well as cost effective. Integration of solar energy into designs ranging from futuristic vehicles to heating is beneficial to society. The design and construction of a Multi-Purpose Remotely Piloted Vehicle (MPRPV) seeks to verify the feasibility of utilizing solar propulsion as a primary fuel source. This task has been a year long effort by a group of ten students, divided into five teams, each dealing with different aspects of the design. The aircraft was designed to take-off, climb to the design altitude, fly in a sustained figure-eight flight path, and cruise for approximately one hour. This mission requires flight at Reynolds numbers between 150,000 and 200,000 and demands special considerations in the aerodynamic design in order to achieve flight in this regime. Optimal performance requires a light weight configuration with both structural integrity and maximum power availability. The structure design and choice of solar cells for the propulsion was governed by the weight, efficiency, and cost considerations. The final design is a MPRPV weighting 35 N which cruises 7 m/s at the design altitude of 50 m. The configuration includes a wing composed of balsa and foam NACA 6409 airfoil sections and carbon fiber spars, a tail of similar construction, and a truss structure fuselage. The propulsion system consists of 98 10 percent efficient solar cells donated by Mobil Solar, a NiCad battery for energy storage, and a folding propeller regulated by a lightweight and efficient control system. The airfoils and propeller chosen for the design were research and tested during the design process.
Elario, David S.↗
A Cost Modeling Approach for Entry Systems Analysis of Human Mars Missions
Cost is one of the biggest obstacles to sending humans to Mars. However, spacecraft costs are typically not estimated until after the preliminary vehicle and mission concepts have been designed. By automating the cost estimation process, the effect of any change in vehicle or mission design on the mission cost can be determined more efficiently. This paper describes an extension to the tool Systems Analysis for Planetary Entry, Descent, and Landing which integrates the cost modeling software System Estimation and Evaluation of Resources- Hardware with a number of systems analysis tools. This new method is used to analyze several tradespaces of an entry vehicle for human Mars missions utilizing a Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator and provide preliminary results. Key findings include quantifying how ballistic coefficient, main engine specific impulse, and thrust to weight ratio affect the cost of the vehicle and how the payload per lander and number of landers affects the cost of a campaign to Mars.
Friz, Paul D↗
A Cost Modeling Approach for Entry Systems Analysis of Human Mars Missions
Cost is one of the biggest obstacles to sending humans to Mars. However, spacecraft costs are typically not estimated until after the preliminary vehicle and mission concepts have been designed. By automating the cost estimation process, the effect of any change in vehicle or mission design on the mission cost can be determined more efficiently. This paper describes an extension to the tool Systems Analysis for Planetary Entry, Descent, and Landing which integrates the cost modeling software System Estimation and Evaluation of Resources-Hardware with a number of systems analysis tools. This new method is used to analyze several trade spaces of an entry vehicle for human Mars missions utilizing a Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator and provide preliminary results. Key findings include quantifying how ballistic coefficient, main engine specific impulse, and thrust to weight ratio affect the cost of the vehicle and how the payload per lander and number of landers affects the cost of a campaign to Mars.
Paul D Friz↗
New Method for Systems and Cost Analysis of Human Mars Entry Vehicles
Cost is one of the biggest obstacles to sending humans to Mars. However, spacecraft costs are typically not estimated until after the preliminary vehicle and mission concepts have been designed. By automating the cost estimation process, the effect of any change in vehicle or mission design on the mission cost can be determined more efficiently. This paper describes an extension to the tool SAPE (Systems Analysis for Planetary Entry, Descent, and Landing). This extension integrates the cost modeling software SEER-H (System Estimation and Evaluation of Resources-Hardware) with a number of systems analysis tools. This new method is used to analyze several trade spaces of a HIAD (Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator) entry vehicle for human Mars missions. Key findings include quantifying the impacts of ballistic coefficient, main engine specific impulse, and thrust-to-weight ratio on the overall cost of the vehicle, and how the payload per lander and number of landers affects the cost of a campaign to Mars.
Friz, Paul D.↗
Efficient method for approximating nonlinear dynamics: applications to uncertainty propagation and estimation
High-order Taylor series expansions can be used to model nonlinear dynamics at the cost of integrating a large set of variational equations to obtain high-order state-transition tensors (STTs). This paper presents an innovative technique for approximating the high-order STTs that reduces significantly the computational cost by retaining only the dominant secular terms. We propagate the low-order partial derivatives of Kepler’s equation, which only requires the integration of six additional equations to extend an n-th order approximation to order (n + 1). The approximation stems from the Lindstedt-Poincare procedure and exploits the stability properties of orbital motion. Since the method makes no dynamical assumptions, it can accommodate any source of orbital perturbations. We show how the approximation of the second-order STT significantly increases the accuracy of the linear method for uncertainty propagation with only a small computational overhead. Finally, we derive a high-order approximate extended Kalman filter that implements the proposed approximation of the STT and improves the performance of linear filters. Examples of application with different perturbation sources include the heliocentric orbit of an asteroid, an orbiter around Europa, and an Earth-orbiting satellite.
Park, Ryan S↗
Skylab Workshop experience in experiment accommodation
This paper examines the experiment support facilities available from the Orbital Workshop (OWS) module of the Skylab. Experiments and associated support provisions have been selected and described to illustrate the various accommodations and degree of complexities involved in the integration of these experiments into the Workshop. The interfaces described start with the simple and proceed to the complex. On the basis of the experience gained in integrating the experiments into the Workshop, conclusions are drawn and suggestions are made on ways to facilitate future experiment operations and at the same time simplify and reduce the cost of integration efforts.
Hanlon, W. H.↗
Confidence-Based Feature Acquisition
Confidence-based Feature Acquisition (CFA) is a novel, supervised learning method for acquiring missing feature values when there is missing data at both training (learning) and test (deployment) time. To train a machine learning classifier, data is encoded with a series of input features describing each item. In some applications, the training data may have missing values for some of the features, which can be acquired at a given cost. A relevant JPL example is that of the Mars rover exploration in which the features are obtained from a variety of different instruments, with different power consumption and integration time costs. The challenge is to decide which features will lead to increased classification performance and are therefore worth acquiring (paying the cost). To solve this problem, CFA, which is made up of two algorithms (CFA-train and CFA-predict), has been designed to greedily minimize total acquisition cost (during training and testing) while aiming for a specific accuracy level (specified as a confidence threshold). With this method, it is assumed that there is a nonempty subset of features that are free; that is, every instance in the data set includes these features initially for zero cost. It is also assumed that the feature acquisition (FA) cost associated with each feature is known in advance, and that the FA cost for a given feature is the same for all instances. Finally, CFA requires that the base-level classifiers produce not only a classification, but also a confidence (or posterior probability).
Wagstaff, Kiri L.↗
Space station integrated propulsion and fluid systems study
The program study was performed in two tasks: Task 1 addressed propulsion systems and Task 2 addressed all fluid systems associated with the Space Station elements, which also included propulsion and pressurant systems. Program results indicated a substantial reduction in life cycle costs through integrating the oxygen/hydrogen propulsion system with the environmental control and life support system, and through supplying nitrogen in a cryogenic gaseous supercritical or subcritical liquid state. A water sensitivity analysis showed that increasing the food water content would substantially increase the amount of water available for propulsion use and in all cases, the implementation of the BOSCH CO2 reduction process would reduce overall life cycle costs to the station and minimize risk. An investigation of fluid systems and associated requirements revealed a delicate balance between the individual propulsion and fluid systems across work packages and a strong interdependence between all other fluid systems.
Bicknell, B.↗
Hypercars: The next industrial revolution
The auto industry -- one-seventh of the GNP, and the highest expression of the Iron Age -- is about to trigger the biggest transformation in industrial structure since the microchip. Ultralight cars molded from net-shape advanced composites can be several-fold lighter than present steel cars, yet safer, sportier, and more comfortable, durable, and beautiful. Modern hybrid-electric drives boost efficiency approximately 1.3-1.5x in heavy steel cars, but approximately 5-20x in ultralight, very slippery plafforms. Synergistically combined into ultralight-hybrid 'hypercars,' these elements can yield state-of-the-shelf family cars that average 150-300+ mi/gal -- twice that with state-of-the-art technologies -- yet can also be superior in all other respects, probably including cost: carbon-fiber monocoques can actually be cheaper to mass-produce that steel unibodies. Designing cars more like aircraft and less like tanks requires not only an approximately 400-500 kg curb mass and very low air and road drag, but also an aerospace philosophy of engineering integration. Mass, cost, and complexity turn out to compound with heavy hybrids but to decompound with ultralight hybrids, owing partly to radical simplification. Excellent aerodynamics, preferable including advanced techniques for passive boundary-layer control, will be the key to successful design integration. Transforming automaking is a competitive and environmental imperative, could form the nucleus of a green industrial Renaissance, and would enhance national security by, among other things, saving as much oil as OPEC now extracts. However, this transformation faces serious cultural barriers. For example, hypercars will be more like computers with wheels than like cars with chips -- they'll have an order of magnitude more code than today's cars -- but Detroit is not a software culture. Just the transition from stamped and welded steel to integrated and adhesive-joined synthetics is difficult enough. Nonetheless, hypercars are rapidly heading to market in the late 1990s, because approximately 25 current and intending automakers are eager to capture their potentially decisive competitive advantages -- including order-of-magnitude reductions in product cycle time, tooling cost, assembly effort, and parts count. Hypercars will succeed, and may well sweep the market, not because of mandates or subsidies, but because of manufacturers' quest for competitive advantage and customers' desire for better, smarter cars.
Lovins, Amory B.↗
Comparative evaluation of three alternative power cycles for waste heat recovery from the exhaust of adiabatic diesel engines
Three alternative power cycles were compared in application as an exhaust-gas heat-recovery system for use with advanced adiabatic diesel engines. The power cycle alternatives considered were steam Rankine, organic Rankine with RC-1 as the working fluid, and variations of an air Brayton cycle. The comparison was made in terms of fuel economy and economic payback potential for heavy-duty trucks operating in line-haul service. The results indicate that, in terms of engine rated specific fuel consumption, a diesel/alternative-power-cycle engine offers a significant improvement over the turbocompound diesel used as the baseline for comparison. The maximum imporvement resulted from the use of a Rankine cycle heat-recovery system in series with turbocompounding. The air Brayton cycle alternatives studied, which included both simple-cycle and compression-intercooled configurations, were less effective and provided about half the fuel consumption improvement of the Rankine cycle alternatives under the same conditions. Capital and maintenance cost estimates were also developed for each of the heat-recovery power cycle systems. These costs were integrated with the fuel savings to identify the time required for net annual savings to pay back the initial capital investment. The sensitivity of capital payback time to arbitrary increases in fuel price, not accompanied by corresponding hardware cost inflation, was also examined. The results indicate that a fuel price increase is required for the alternative power cycles to pay back capital within an acceptable time period.
Bailey, M. M.↗
Alpha LAMP Integration Facility
This paper describes the activity recently completed to meet the simulated space environment requirements for the ground-based testing of an integrated Space Based Laser (SBL) system experiment. The need to maintain optical alignment in the challenging dynamic environment of the pressure recovery system required to simulate space dominated the design requirements. A robust system design was established which minimized the total program costs, most notably by reducing the cost of integrating the components of the experiment. The components of the experiment are integrated on an optical bench in a clean area adjacent to the vacuum chamber and moved on air bearings into the chamber for testing.
Oshiro, Richard↗