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DOE OSTI2025

A systematic decision-making methodology to formalize the selection of degree of realism in screening analysis of probabilistic risk assessment

In the nuclear power domain, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is used to inform decision-making for Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Recently, there has been an increase in the utilization of modeling and simulation (M&S) to support the estimation of PRA inputs. Risk analysts should carefully select the PRA items that require M&S and their degree of realism (DoR) with consideration of the required resources. To support this selection, this article formulates a systematic decision-making approach for the DoR selection. The DoR selection is made based on two predictive decision-making attributes: the predicted differences in safety risk estimate (ΔSaRi) and the cost of analysis (ΔCAN). This research also develops and quantifies causal models to estimate ΔSaRi and ΔCAN. The causal model-based prediction of ΔSaRi and ΔCAN helps reduce the trial-and-error nature of the DoR selection in the PRA screening analysis and provides insights for DoR selection and the gradual refinements of PRA realism. This approach is demonstrated for a case study on fire PRA of NPPs, where an adequate DoR is selected from two fire models: an engineering correlation and a zone model.

Alkhatib, Sari [Department of Nuclear, Plasma, and↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Software/Hardware Framework for Efficient and Safe Emergency Response in Post-Crash Scenarios of Battery Electric Vehicles

The adoption rate of battery electric vehicles (EVs) is rapidly increasing. Electric vehicles differ significantly from conventional internal combustion engine vehicles and vary widely across different manufacturers. Emergency responders (ERs) and recovery personnel may have less experience with EVs and lack timely access to critical information such as the extent of the stranded energy present, high-voltage safety hazards, and post-crash handling procedures in a user-friendly manner. This paper presents a software/hardware interactive tool named Electric Vehicle Information for Incident Response Solutions (EVIRS) to aid in the quick access to emergency response and recovery information. The current prototype of EVIRS identifies EVs using the VIN or Make, Model, and Year, and offers several useful features for ERs and recovery personnel. These features include integration and easy access to emergency response procedures tailored to an identified EV, vehicle structural schematics, the quick identification of battery pack specifications, and more. For EVs that are not severely damaged, EVIRS can perform calculations to estimate stranded energy in the EV’s battery and discharge time for various power loads using either EV dashboard information or operational data accessed through the CAN interface. Knowledge of this information may be helpful in the post-crash handling, management, and storage of an EV. The functionality and accuracy of EVIRS were demonstrated through laboratory tests using a 2021 Ford Mach-E and associated data acquisition system. The results indicated that when the remaining driving range was used as an input, EVIRS was able to estimate the pack voltage with an error of less than 3 V. Conversely, when pack voltage was used as an input, the estimated state of charge (SOC) error was less than 5% within the range of 30–90% SOC. Additionally, other features, such as retrieving emergency response guides for identified EVs and accessing lessons learned from archived incidents, have been successfully demonstrated through EVIRS for quick access. EVIRS can be a valuable tool for emergency responders and recovery personnel, both in action and during offline training, by providing crucial information related to assessing EV/battery safety risks, appropriate handling, de-energizing, transport, and storage in an integrated and user-friendly manner.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fast Automatic Knot Placement Method for Accurate B-spline Curve Fitting

The choice of knot vector has immense influence on the resulting accuracy of a B-spline approximation of a curve. However, despite the significance of this problem and the various solutions that were proposed in the literature, optimizing the number and placement of knots remains a difficult task. This paper presents a novel method for the approximation of a curve by a B-spline of arbitrary order, which automatically determines a knot vector that achieves high approximation quality. Additionally, at the core of our approach is a feature function that characterizes the amount and spatial distribution of geometric details in the input curve by estimating its derivatives. Knots are then selected in such a way as to evenly distribute the feature contents across their intervals. A comparison to the state of the art for a wide variety of curves shows that our method is faster and achieves more accurate reconstruction results, while typically reducing the number of necessary knots.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Review of data-driven models for quantifying load shed by non-residential buildings in the United States

Shifting and shedding power demand in buildings can be cost-effective techniques for grids to function reliably and for end users to earn compensation. Grid operators reimburse customers in proportion to the quantity of load shed. Simple data-driven methods are used to quantify this shed, which is the difference between a measured load during the event and modeled "baseline" that would have occurred in absence of the event. These methods have evolved over the years and in many cases have been integrated with building physics, to make them a hybrid between physics based and empirical models. However, there is no comprehensive analysis that provides guidance to building operators, grid operators and researchers in selecting appropriate models based on their specific needs and available data. Here, this work aims to fill this gap by critically assessing the performance of baseline models put forward from the year 2000 through 2023. The literature reviewed includes reports generated by grid operators, reports from national laboratories and academic journal articles. The work outlines modeling features like the inputs, training period, estimation method, adjustments to fine tune the predictions and metrics to evaluate the performance. A comprehensive list of 50 models has been provided. For each model, the study explores the applicability of the model to weather sensitive buildings, variability in the building profile, timing of the event, and whether the building reduces energy consumption before an event. The work identifies the situations in which a particular model works and draws lessons based on evidence of performance. Finally, recommendations to aid in model selection are given.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Pathways towards break even for low convergence ratio direct-drive inertial confinement fusion

Following indirect-drive experiments which demonstrated promising performance for low convergence ratios (below 17), previous direct-drive simulations identified a fusion-relevant regime which is expected to be robust to hydrodynamic instability growth. This paper expands these results with simulated implosions at lower energies of 100 and 270 kJ, and ‘hydrodynamic equivalent’ capsules which demonstrate comparable convergence ratio, implosion velocity and in-flight aspect ratio without the need for cryogenic cooling, which would allow the assumptions of one-dimensional-like performance to be tested on current facilities. A range of techniques to improve performance within this regime are then investigated, including the use of two-colour and deep ultraviolet laser pulses. Finally, further simulations demonstrate that the deposition of electron energy into the hotspot of a low convergence ratio implosion through auxiliary heating also leads to significant increases in yield. Results include break even for 1.1 MJ of total energy input (including an estimated 370 kJ of short-pulse laser energy to produce electron beams for the auxiliary heating), but are found to be highly dependent upon the efficiency with which electron beams can be created and transported to the hotspot to drive the heating mechanism.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Code Benchmark of the HTTF Pressurized Conduction Cooldown Test Using SAM

The High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF) at Oregon State University is an integral system test facility to simulate postulated reactor transients of prismatic high-temperature gas-cooled reactors(HTGRs). A series of test campaigns was launched, providing abundant test data that could be used to benchmark reactor system analysis codes like the System Analysis Module (SAM). In this study, a SAM model of the facility is developed based on the two-dimensional (2D) ring model approach. All components including the ceramic matrix, graphite heaters, helium coolant channels, core barrel, upcomer, pressure vessel, and reactor cavity cooling system are modeled as concentric cylindrical rings. The model is used to simulate one of the benchmark problems-Pressurized Conduction Cooldown (PCC)-within the scope of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Nuclear Energy Agency International HTTF Benchmark. The simulations consist of two parts. In the first part, operating and boundary conditions as well as thermophysical properties of materials are specified for the benchmark problem. In this work, results from the first part will be used in code-to-code comparison. In the second part, the SAM model is used to simulate Test PG-27, which is the first PCC test carried out in the HTTF, with only two of the ten heater banks activated. The results in the second part are used for code-to-data comparison. Because the helium coolant flow rate is not measured in this facility, it is estimated using the input power and inlet/outlet coolant temperatures. Additionally, radial heat flow in the ceramic blocks is complicated by hundreds of cylindrical coolant channels and heater rods embedded in them. As such, it is necessary to deduce an effective thermal conductivity for the ceramic to analyze the core thermal behavior. SAM predictions of the helium coolant and ceramic temperatures are compared with test data measured in three equivalent sectors. Overall, the SAM results agree reasonably well with test data within the variation of data among the three sectors, which demonstrates SAM's capability in capturing transient effects in HTGR using the simplified 2D ring model.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of the mean excitation energy of liquid argon

The mean excitation energy (I-value) of liquid argon is a critical input for energy estimation in neutrino oscillation experiments. It is measured to be 199 +4 -5 eV using the range of 402.2 MeV protons from the Fermilab Linac. This compares to the author's recent evaluation of (197 ± 7) eV based on a combination of an oscillator strength distribution analysis, gaseous argon range measurements, sparse stopping power data on solid argon, and an extrapolation of data on the effect of phase from other substances. Using all sources of information, we recommend a value of (198 ± 4) eV for liquid argon, which is significantly higher than 188 eV, from ICRU-37's gaseous argon evaluation, commonly used in Monte Carlo codes such as Geant4.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Blinding multiprobe cosmological experiments

ABSTRACT The goal of blinding is to hide an experiment’s critical results – here the inferred cosmological parameters – until all decisions affecting its analysis have been finalized. This is especially important in the current era of precision cosmology, when the results of any new experiment are closely scrutinized for consistency or tension with previous results. In analyses that combine multiple observational probes, like the combination of galaxy clustering and weak lensing in the Dark Energy Survey (DES), it is challenging to blind the results while retaining the ability to check for (in)consistency between different parts of the data. We propose a simple new blinding transformation, which works by modifying the summary statistics that are input to parameter estimation, such as two-point correlation functions. The transformation shifts the measured statistics to new values that are consistent with (blindly) shifted cosmological parameters while preserving internal (in)consistency. We apply the blinding transformation to simulated data for the projected DES Year 3 galaxy clustering and weak lensing analysis, demonstrating that practical blinding is achieved without significant perturbation of internal-consistency checks, as measured here by degradation of the χ2 between the data and best-fitting model. Our blinding method’s performance is expected to improve as experiments evolve to higher precision and accuracy.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the effects of varietal types × management on the spatial variability of sorghum biomass across US environments

Abstract Regional‐scale estimations of sorghum biomass production allow identification of optimum genotype×environment×management (G×E×M) combinations for bioenergy generation. The objective of this study was to determine the degree of contributions of G, E, and M toward variability in sorghum biomass in the United States. Using the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator in a grid computing platform, biomass was simulated for irrigated and rainfed conditions for 30 years across the United States for four sorghum varietal types (grain—GS, sudangrass—SS, photosensitive—PS, and photo‐insensitive—PI). Simulated biomass was assessed by environments clustered using the sum of intercepted solar radiation ( ir ), mean of temperature stress factor ( tp ) and water stress factor ( sw ). Simulated biomass ranged from 5.8 t ha −1 (GS‐rainfed) to 27.5 t ha −1 (PI‐irrigated). Under high‐temperature environments (mean annual temperature = 25°C), rainfed biomass between 40 and 80 days after planting (DAP) was strongly correlated with sw ( r = 0.64–0.86) and irrigated biomass with ir ( r = 0.68–0.81). Under low‐temperature environments (mean annual temperature = 18°C) after 40 DAP, tp and ir had greater effects than sw ( r = 0.55–0.82). Biomass variance was mainly explained by varietal type (50%–76%) in all environments×irrigation combinations, except in the high‐ and mid‐temperature environments under rainfed conditions where rainfall had the major effect (25%–45%). However, when mean temperature during the growing season decreased from 25°C (high environments) to 18°C (low environments), the contribution of mean temperature to biomass variance increased from 7% to 34% (rainfed) and from 4% to 36% (irrigated). Varietal type had the larger interactions with other factors independently of the environment and irrigation. We demonstrated a need to quantify (i) the main G×E×M drivers of biomass variability based on environmental stress factors and (ii) the variance contribution of these drivers on sorghum biomass. Our regional‐scale estimations are key inputs for future robust biomass projections of energy sorghum genotypes integrating G×E×M under climate change scenarios.

Ojeda, Jonathan J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Scoping review of Culex mosquito life history trait heterogeneity in response to temperature

Abstract Background Mosquitoes in the genus Culex are primary vectors in the US for West Nile virus (WNV) and other arboviruses. Climatic drivers such as temperature have differential effects on species-specific changes in mosquito range, distribution, and abundance, posing challenges for population modeling, disease forecasting, and subsequent public health decisions. Understanding these differences in underlying biological dynamics is crucial in the face of climate change. Methods We collected empirical data on thermal response for immature development rate, egg viability, oviposition, survival to adulthood, and adult lifespan for Culex pipiens, Cx. quinquefasciatus, Cx. tarsalis , and Cx. restuans from existing literature according to the PRISMA scoping review guidelines. Results We observed linear relationships with temperature for development rate and lifespan, and nonlinear relationships for survival and egg viability, with underlying variation between species. Optimal ranges and critical minima and maxima also appeared varied. To illustrate how model output can change with experimental input data from individual Culex species, we applied a modified equation for temperature-dependent mosquito type reproduction number for endemic spread of WNV among mosquitoes and observed different effects. Conclusions Current models often input theoretical parameters estimated from a single vector species; we show the need to implement the real-world heterogeneity in thermal response between species and present a useful data resource for researchers working toward that goal. Graphical Abstract

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Definitions for Testing Whether Evaluated Nuclear Data Relative Uncertainties are Realistic in Size

This document describes various tests that can be used to check whether evaluated relative uncertainties stored in nuclear-data covariances are realistic. To be more specific, these tests check whether nuclear-data uncertainties could be either over- or under-estimated given the input that usually enters the evaluation of nuclear-data mean values and covariances. Warning and error messages on the reliability of nuclear-data uncertainties will result from these tests. If uncertainties of one specific nuclear-data observable trigger warning messages from multiple tests, an evaluator should counter-check the reliability of the relative uncertainties of this particular nuclear-data covariance matrix.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Analyzing Next-Generation Supply Chains Using the Materials Flows through Industry Tool

The Materials Flows through Industry (MFI) tool is a supply chain modeling tool developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) with funding from the Department of Energy's Advanced Manufacturing Office. MFI was created to identify and analyze opportunities to reduce the energy and carbon intensities of the U.S. industrial sector (Hanes and Carpenter 2017). In this work, we present an overview of the MFI tool's structure and capabilities, as well as the results of using MFI to analyze a novel NREL-developed process to 'upcycle' PET plastic into higher-value composite materials (Rorrer et al. 2019). This process combines recycled PET (rPET) plastic with inputs that can be derived from biomass, including muconic acid, acrylic acid, and ethylene glycol, to chemically break down the plastic back to its monomers in a process called glycolization. Then, repolymerization and the application of fiberglass yields the valuable glass fiber reinforced plastic (GFRP) composite, a performance material used in the manufacture of wind turbine blades, boat hulls, and other applications. This rPET-derived GFRP was found to have superior strength and fiberglass adhesion compared to conventional GFRP formulations. Our findings indicate that this GFRP production process, were it to be widely commercialized beyond its current lab-scale, could potentially reduce the fossil energy intensity of the GFRP supply chain by between 37% and 58% compared to the conventional method of GFRP manufacture from fossil-derived inputs. We also estimate potential supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions between 30% and 40% from this process. Scaling these GHG offset estimates up to annual GFRP production in the U.S. would be roughly equivalent to removing between 150,000 and 200,000 vehicles from U.S. roads. These ranges of impact estimates represent the range of differences associated with the various economic allocation methods we have assumed for the intensity contributions from the first life of the PET plastic. Following Shen et al. (2010), we derive economic allocation factors from the current price ratios of clear- and green-colored recycled PET plastic to virgin PET resin ('waste-valuation' approach) or assume them to be zero in a more simplistic allocation ('cutoff' approach). Future work involving the MFI modeling tool will also be discussed, including preliminary results comparing the energy intensity of conventional and bio-based nylons manufacturing. Attendees will also be encouraged to conduct MFI supply chain modeling of their own by requesting a user account on the MFI web application, which is freely available to the public at the following address: https://mfitool.nrel.gov.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of the muon anomalous precession frequency in runs 4, 5, and 6 of the muon ${g}-2$ Experiment at Fermilab

The Fermilab E989 Muon $g-2$ experiment measures the muon's anomalous magnetic moment to a precision of 127 parts per billion, as reported in June 2025. The value is proportional to the difference between the muon's cyclotron frequency and the spin precession frequency in the presence of a uniform magnetic field, for muons contained within the $g-2$ storage ring. Spin precession frequency is extracted from the time distribution of the muon's decay positrons recorded by 24 electromagnetic calorimeters positioned around the inner circumference of the storage ring. The anomalous precession frequency is one of the primary experimental inputs necessary to estimate the anomalous magnetic moment, the other being the measurement of the magnetic field. This dissertation details the anomalous precession frequency extraction, including reconstruction, time-distribution fitting, and treatment of systematic uncertainties for the final three data-collection runs: Run-4, Run-5, and Run-6. This data represents a fourfold increase in statistics over the previous analysis release, halving the statistical uncertainty. The residual slow term from previous analyses is now well understood and documented in a systematic treatment. As of the writing of this dissertation, the theoretical prediction for the SM estimate of the muon's anomalous magnetic moment is under debate, with two competing prediction methods, so a definitive comparison with theory is not available. The results submitted for experimental release use the kernel-ratio asymmetry method, contributing 115 parts per billion to the statistical uncertainty and 34 parts per billion to the systematic uncertainty. When combined with the previous analyses in earlier data runs, this thereby improves the measurement beyond the experimental goal and sets the world's most precise measurement of the muon's anomalous magnetic moment.

Israel, Scott Nathan [Boston U.]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of the muon anomalous precession frequency in runs 4, 5, and 6 of the muon ${g}-2$ Experiment at Fermilab

Israel, Scott Nathan [Boston U.]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Measurement of the muon anomalous precession frequency in Runs 4, 5, and 6 of the Muon g-2 experiment at Fermilab

The Fermilab E989 Muon g − 2 experiment measures the muon’s anomalous magnetic moment to a precision of 127 parts per billion, as reported in June 2025. The value is proportional to the difference between the muon’s cyclotron frequency and the spin precession frequency in the presence of a uniform magnetic field, for muons contained within the g − 2 storage ring. Spin precession frequency is extracted from the time distribution of the muon’s decay positrons recorded by 24 electromagnetic calorimeters positioned around the inner circumference of the storage ring. The anomalous precession frequency is one of the primary experimental inputs necessary to estimate the anomalous magnetic moment, the other being the measurement of the magnetic field. This dissertation details the anomalous precession frequency extraction, including reconstruction, time-distribution fitting, and treatment of systematic uncertainties for the final three data-collection runs: Run-4, Run-5, and Run-6. This data represents a fourfold increase in statistics over the previous analysis release, halving the statistical uncertainty. The residual slow term from previous analyses is now well understood and documented in a systematic treatment. As of the writing of this dissertation, the theoretical prediction for the SM estimate of the muon’s anomalous magnetic moment is under debate, with two competing prediction methods, so a definitive comparison with theory is not available. The results submitted for experimental release use the kernel-ratio asymmetry method, contributing 115 parts per billion to the statistical uncertainty and 34 parts per billion to the systematic uncertainty. When combined with the previous analyses in earlier data runs, this thereby improves the measurement beyond the experimental goal and sets the world’s most precise measurement of the muon’s anomalous magnetic moment.

Israel, Scott Nathan [Boston U.]↗

DOE OSTI2021

Computational optical physical unclonable function

A system or method for encryption of data includes a light source, a random optical element and a light detection element. The light source is arranged to transmit an input data signal to the random optical element. The light source is incident on the random optical element such that the input data signal is randomly scattered by the random optical element to generate an image at on the detector disposed at an output of the random optical element. The image received by the detector is applied to a compressive sensing algorithm to generate a transfer function. The transfer function defines a relationship between the input data signal and the image to enable estimation and reconstruction of the input data signal.

Birch, Gabriel Carlisle↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty-aware photovoltaic generation estimation through fusion of physics with harmonics information using Bayesian neural networks

We develop an aggregate photovoltaic generation estimation methodology that uses diverse inputs and can reason on its current input-dependent predictive uncertainty. Named PVPHEst, for PhotoVoltaic Physics- & Harmonics-driven Estimator, the resulting tool is intelligently weighing and fusing information carried by the output of physics models, harmonics, and line sensors, using Bayesian neural networks and related techniques aimed at solving machine learning problems with intrinsic uncertainty quantification. As each of the three input classes carries heterogeneous information that only sheds light on one facet of the estimation problem but its value can diminish in the face of diverse grid phenomena, PV-PHEst with its estimation and uncertainty reasoning capabilities perform a nontrivial and potentially mission-critical task of value to grid operators.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating the Potential and Challenges of an Uncertainty Quantification Method for Long Short–Term Memory Models for Soil Moisture Predictions

Recently, recurrent deep networks have shown promise to harness newly available satellite–sensed data for long–term soil moisture projections. However, to be useful in forecasting, deep networks must also provide uncertainty estimates. Here we evaluated Monte Carlo dropout with an input–dependent data noise term (MCD+N), an efficient uncertainty estimation framework originally developed in computer vision, for hydrologic time series predictions. MCD+N simultaneously estimates a heteroscedastic input–dependent data noise term (a trained error model attributable to observational noise) and a network weight uncertainty term (attributable to insufficiently constrained model parameters). Although MCD+N has appealing features, many heuristic approximations were employed during its derivation, and rigorous evaluations and evidence of its asserted capability to detect dissimilarity were lacking. To address this, we provided an in–depth evaluation of the scheme's potential and limitations. We showed that for reproducing soil moisture dynamics recorded by the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, MCD+N indeed gave a good estimate of predictive error, provided that we tuned a hyperparameter and used a representative training data set. The input–dependent term responded strongly to observational noise, while the model term clearly acted as a detector for physiographic dissimilarity from the training data, behaving as intended. However, when the training and test data were characteristically different, the input–dependent term could be misled, undermining its reliability. Additionally, due to the data–driven nature of the model, data noise also influences network weight uncertainty, and therefore the two uncertainty terms are correlated. Altogether, this approach has promise, but care is needed to interpret the results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗