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At least 73 records · Page 4

Learning likelihood ratios with neural network classifiers

The likelihood ratio is a crucial quantity for statistical inference in science that enables hypothesis testing, construction of confidence intervals, reweighting of distributions, and more. Many modern scientific applications, however, make use of data- or simulation-driven models for which computing the likelihood ratio can be very difficult or even impossible. By applying the so-called “likelihood ratio trick,” approximations of the likelihood ratio may be computed using clever parametrizations of neural network-based classifiers. A number of different neural network setups can be defined to satisfy this procedure, each with varying performance in approximating the likelihood ratio when using finite training data. We present a series of empirical studies detailing the performance of several common loss functionals and parametrizations of the classifier output in approximating the likelihood ratio of two univariate and multivariate Gaussian distributions as well as simulated high-energy particle physics datasets.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Space-time generalization of mutual information

The mutual information characterizes correlations between spatially separated regions of a system. Yet, in experiments we often measure dynamical correlations, which involve probing operators that are also separated in time. Here, we introduce a space-time generalization of mutual information which, by construction, satisfies several natural properties of the mutual information and at the same time characterizes correlations across subsystems that are separated in time. In particular, this quantity, that we call the space-time mutual information, bounds all dynamical correlations. We construct this quantity based on the idea of the quantum hypothesis testing. As a by-product, our definition provides a transparent interpretation in terms of an experimentally accessible setup. We draw connections with other notions in quantum information theory, such as quantum channel discrimination. Finally, we study the behavior of the space-time mutual information in several settings and contrast its long-time behavior in many-body localizing and thermalizing systems.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

High-dimensional isotomics, part 2: Observations of over 100 constraints on methionine's isotome

The abundances of different isotopic forms of a compound, or isotopologues, will vary based on its physical and chemical history. The number of isotopologues increases combinatorically with the size of a molecule, and even small molecules such as amino acids have thousands of potentially observable isotopic variants. However, due to the analytical challenges of separating and observing isotopologues, only a few dimensions of isotopic diversity are routinely measured. Overcoming these challenges requires both an experimental method to observe many isotopic properties and a theoretical framework for interpreting these experiments. In Part 1, we presented such a theoretical framework; here, we demonstrate an experimental method, which we apply to methionine. Our approach uses a Q Exactive HF Orbitrap to perform several “M + N experiments”, where a sample is ionized, a subset of its isotopologues with cardinal mass N daltons greater than the unsubstituted isotopologue is selected and fragmented, and the proportions of all detectable isotopic forms of those fragment ions are quantified. We perform M + 1, M + 2, M + 3, and M + 4 experiments of a methionine sample and standard where the sample has a 100 ‰ enrichment of 13C at the methyl carbon relative to the natural 13C abundance at that position in the standard, and is otherwise identical to the standard. We observe isotopic forms of 8 fragment ion species for each version of the M + N experiment. With the assistance of a forward model of expected mass spectra, we identify isotopic peaks for each fragment ion based on observed mass and abundance, screen these for data quality, and quantify abundances for 146 unique isotopic peaks at precisions of ≈ 0.3–3 ‰. We present our direct observations and use them to reconstruct the concentrations of 19 individual singly, doubly, and triply-substituted isotopologues; doing so gives fewer constraints and broader error bars than working with the direct observations, but may be more interpretable for some applications. We also examine possibilities for measuring additional peaks, which are primarily limited by the detection limit of the Orbitrap-IRMS method. We then suggest some possible uses of our direct measurements for chemical forensics and hypothesis testing. Furthermore, our results demonstrate the diversity of isotopic constraints currently observable and interpretable for organic molecules.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hydrogen underground storage for grid electricity storage: An optimization study on techno-economic analysis

Here, this study performs a techno-economic analysis of hydrogen underground storage systems for grid electricity storage, evaluating their economic viability at the plant scale using dynamic optimization. It explores the feasibility of various system configurations and revenue models in the context of volatile electricity prices and the necessity for multiple revenue streams. The hypothesis tested is that large-scale hydrogen storage, despite its low round-trip efficiency, can be economically viable with the right mix of revenue streams. This study uses scenario-based analysis to assess the impacts of different system configurations, including engaging in time-shifting arbitrage, ancillary service markets and blending hydrogen with natural gas. Results indicate potential annual net cash flows of up to $\$$1.5 million from ancillary services integration and $\$$5.2 million from natural gas blending, contingent on specific system sizes. The study concludes that hydrogen underground storage for grid electricity storage can be profitable, and emphasizes that proper system design and precise electricity price forecasting are crucial for optimizing system performance and economic returns. This research sets the stage for further investigations into the scalability of hydrogen storage systems and their broader implications for grid electricity storage and energy market dynamics.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

An objective inter-comparison of trash mark constellations generated by manual and automated detection methods

Trash marks are unintentional markings observed on printed, scanned, or photocopied documents that result from permanent defects or transient material in office machines and can be used for source attribution of questioned documents. Trash mark examinations have been in use in forensic laboratories for decades, yet the method remains relatively untested and relies on training, experience, and anecdotal information to support its validity. Herein this study generated and harnessed objective data to empirically test one of the foundational theories for assessing the origin of photocopied documents: provided trash marks are present in sufficient quantity and/or quality, no two machines will exhibit a constellation of trash marks that is indistinguishable from another. In this project, objective trash mark location and size data was generated for 50 known photocopiers using both a traditional and a novel, automated method. Inter-machine comparisons were conducted using a novel variant of the Hausdorff distance algorithm to generate a quantitative assessment of how similar or different the 2450 pairs of trash mark constellations were from one another. This study found that each of the machines bearing one or more trash marks exhibited objective differences in their trash mark constellations, ultimately providing support for the tested hypothesis

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dynamic and single cell characterization of a CRISPR-interference toolset in Pseudomonas putida KT2440 for β-ketoadipate production from p -coumarate

We report Pseudomonas putida KT2440 is a well-studied bacterium for the conversion of lignin-derived aromatic compounds to bioproducts. The development of advanced genetic tools in P. putida has reduced the turnaround time for hypothesis testing and enabled the construction of strains capable of producing various products of interest. Here, we evaluate an inducible CRISPR-interference (CRISPRi) toolset on fluorescent, essential, and metabolic targets. Nuclease-deficient Cas9 (dCas9) expressed with the arabinose (8K)-inducible promoter was shown to be tightly regulated across various media conditions and when targeting essential genes. In addition to bulk growth data, single cell time lapse microscopy was conducted, which revealed intrinsic heterogeneity in knockdown rate within an isoclonal population. The dynamics of knockdown were studied across genomic targets in exponentially-growing cells, revealing a universal 1.75 ± 0.38 hour quiescent phase after induction where 1.5 ± 0.35 doublings occur before a phenotypic response is observed. To demonstrate application of this CRISPRi toolset, β-ketoadipate, a monomer for performance-advantaged nylon, was produced at a 4.39 ± 0.5 g/L and yield of 0.76 ± 0.10 mol/mol from p-coumarate, a hydroxycinnamic acid that can be derived from grasses. These cultivation metrics were achieved by using the higher strength IPTG (1K)-inducible promoter to knockdown the pcaIJ operon in the βKA pathway during early exponential phase. This allowed the majority of the carbon to be shunted into the desired product while eliminating the need for a supplemental carbon and energy source to support growth and maintenance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Multivariable degradation modeling and life prediction using multivariate fractional Brownian motion

In system prognostics and health management, multivariable degradation models have been widely developed to predict the life of complex systems using degradation data of multiple Performance Characteristics (PCs). Recent studies have detected a Long-Term Memory (LTM) effect among the degradation process of various PCs, implying a strong coupling phenomenon between the future degradation behavior and historical degradation trajectory. Although the LTM has been widely integrated into single-PC-based degradation modeling, it has not been considered in multi-PC-based scenarios. To capture LTM among multiple PCs, this article proposes a novel LTM-integrated Multivariate Degradation Model (MDM) for system life prediction based on multivariate fractional Brownian motion, which simultaneously incorporates the cross-correlation among different PCs. To estimate parameters of the LTM-integrated MDM, a maximum likelihood method is developed. Here, two likelihood-ratio hypothesis tests are developed to test the existence of the overall and individual LTM effect among multiple PCs. Both simulation studies and physical experiments on the performance degradation of solar energy conversion and storage devices are conducted to validate the proposed model. Results reveal that the proposed LTM-integrated MDM significantly outperforms existing MDMs in life prediction, while the lifetime uncertainty is heavily underestimated by those traditional approaches that neglect the LTM.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Mass‐Conserving‐Perceptron for Machine‐Learning‐Based Modeling of Geoscientific Systems

Although decades of effort have been devoted to building Physical-Conceptual (PC) models for predicting the time-series evolution of geoscientific systems, recent work shows that Machine Learning (ML) based Gated Recurrent Neural Network technology can be used to develop models that are much more accurate. However, the difficulty of extracting physical understanding from ML-based models complicates their utility for enhancing scientific knowledge regarding system structure and function. Here, we propose a physically interpretable Mass-Conserving-Perceptron (MCP) as a way to bridge the gap between PC-based and ML-based modeling approaches. The MCP exploits the inherent isomorphism between the directed graph structures underlying both PC models and GRNNs to explicitly represent the mass-conserving nature of physical processes while enabling the functional nature of such processes to be directly learned (in an interpretable manner) from available data using off-the-shelf ML technology. As a proof of concept, we investigate the functional expressivity (capacity) of the MCP, explore its ability to parsimoniously represent the rainfall-runoff (RR) dynamics of the Leaf River Basin, and demonstrate its utility for scientific hypothesis testing. To conclude, we discuss extensions of the concept to enable ML-based physical-conceptual representation of the coupled nature of mass-energy-information flows through geoscientific systems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

On-the-fly autonomous control of neutron diffraction via physics-informed Bayesian active learning

We demonstrate the first live, autonomous control over neutron diffraction experiments by developing and deploying ANDiE: the autonomous neutron diffraction explorer. Neutron scattering is a unique and versatile characterization technique for probing the magnetic structure and behavior of materials. However, instruments at neutron scattering facilities in the world is limited, and instruments at such facilities are perennially oversubscribed. We demonstrate a significant reduction in experimental time required for neutron diffraction experiments by implementation of autonomous navigation of measurement parameter space through machine learning. Prior scientific knowledge and Bayesian active learning are used to dynamically steer the sequence of measurements. We show that ANDiE can experimentally determine the magnetic ordering transition of both MnO and Fe 1.09 Te all while providing a fivefold enhancement in measurement efficiency. Furthermore, in a hypothesis testing post-processing step, ANDiE can determine transition behavior from a set of possible physical models. ANDiE's active learning approach is broadly applicable to a variety of neutron-based experiments and can open the door for neutron scattering as a tool of accelerated materials discovery.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Large-database cross-verification and validation of tokamak transport models using baselines for comparison

State-of-the-art 1D transport solvers ASTRA and TRANSP are verified, then validated across a large database of semi-randomly selected, time-dependent DIII-D discharges. Various empirical models are provided as baselines to contextualize the validation figures of merit using statistical hypothesis tests. For predicting plasma temperature profiles, no statistically significant advantage is found for the ASTRA and TRANSP simulators over a baseline empirical (two-parameter) model. For predicting stored energy, a significant advantage is found for the simulators over a baseline empirical model based on confinement time scaling. Uncertainty in the results due to diagnostic and profile fitting uncertainties is approximated and determined to be insignificant due in part to the large quantity of discharges employed in the study. Advantages are discussed for validation methodologies like this one that employ (1) large databases and (2) baselines for comparison that are specific to the intended use-case of the model.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Asymptotic reversibility of thermal operations for interacting quantum spin systems via generalized quantum Stein’s lemma

Abstract For quantum spin systems in any spatial dimension with a local, translation-invariant Hamiltonian, we prove that asymptotic state convertibility from a quantum state to another one by a thermodynamically feasible class of quantum dynamics, called thermal operations, is completely characterized by the Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence rate, if the state is translation-invariant and spatially ergodic. Our proof consists of two parts and is phrased in terms of a branch of the quantum information theory called the resource theory. First, we prove that any states, for which the min and max Rényi divergences collapse approximately to a single value, can be approximately reversibly converted into one another by thermal operations with the aid of a small source of quantum coherence. Second, we prove that these divergences collapse asymptotically to the KL divergence rate for any translation-invariant ergodic state. We show this via a generalization of the quantum Stein’s lemma for quantum hypothesis testing beyond independent and identically distributed situations. Our result implies that the KL divergence rate serves as a thermodynamic potential that provides a complete characterization of thermodynamic convertibility of ergodic states of quantum many-body systems in the thermodynamic limit, including out-of-equilibrium and fully quantum situations.

Physics↗

Not even 6 dB: Gaussian quantum illumination in thermal background

Abstract In analyses of target detection with Gaussian state transmitters in a thermal background, the thermal occupation is taken to depend on the target reflectivity in a way which simplifies the analysis of the symmetric quantum hypothesis testing problem. However, this assumption precludes comparison of target detection performance between an arbitrary transmitter and a vacuum state transmitter, i.e. ‘detection without illumination’, which is relevant in a bright thermal background because a target can be detected by its optical shadow or some other perturbation of the background. Using a target-agnostic thermal environment leads to the result that the oft-claimed 6 dB possible reduction in the quantum Chernoff exponent for a two-mode squeezed vacuum transmitter over a coherent state transmitter in high-occupation thermal background is an unachievable limiting value, only occurring in a limit in which the target detection problem is ill-posed. Further analyzing quantum illumination in a target-agnostic thermal environment shows that a weak single-mode squeezed transmitter performs worse than ‘no illumination’, which is explained by the noise-increasing property of reflected low-intensity squeezed light.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Reductive quantum phase estimation

Estimating a quantum phase is a necessary task in a wide range of fields of quantum science. To accomplish this task, two well-known methods have been developed in distinct contexts, namely, Ramsey interferometry (RI) in atomic and molecular physics and quantum phase estimation (QPE) in quantum computing. We demonstrate that these canonical examples are instances of a larger class of phase estimation protocols, which we call reductive quantum phase estimation (RQPE) circuits. Here, we present an explicit algorithm that allows one to create an RQPE circuit. This circuit distinguishes an arbitrary set of phases with a smaller number of qubits and unitary applications, thereby solving a general class of quantum hypothesis testing to which RI and QPE belong. We further demonstrate a tradeoff between measurement precision and phase distinguishability, which allows one to tune the circuit to be optimal for a specific application. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Papadopoulos, Nicholas J. C. (ORCID:00000002635700↗

High Impedance Fault Detection Through Quasi-Static State Estimation: A Parameter Error Modeling Approach

This paper presents a model for detecting high impedance faults using parameter error modeling and a two step per-phase weighted-least squares state estimation process. The proposed scheme leverages the use of Phasor Measurement Units and synthetic measurements to identify per-phase power flow and injection measurements which indicate a parameter error through ?2 Hypothesis Testing applied to the composed measurement error. Although current and voltage waveforms are commonly analyzed for high-impedance fault detection, wide area power flow and injection measurements, which are already inherent to the state estimation process, also show promise for real-world high-impedance fault detection applications. The error distributions after detection share the measurement function error spread observed in proven parameter error diagnostics and can be applied to high-impedance fault identification. Further, this error spread across measurement functions related to the fault will be clearly discerned from measurement error. Case studies are performed on the IEEE 33-Bus Distribution System along with the proposed model in Simulink.

Cooper, Austin↗

Trust Model System for the Energy Grid of Things Network Communications

Network communication is crucial in the Energy Grid of Things (EGoT). Without a network connection, the energy grid becomes just a power grid where the energy resources are available to the customer uni-directionally. A mechanism to analyze and optimize the energy usage of the grid can only happen through a medium, a communications network, that enables information exchange between the grid participants and the service provider. Security implementers of EGoT network communication take extraordinary measures to ensure the safety of the energy grid, a critical infrastructure, as well as the safety and privacy of the grid participants. With the dynamic nature of network communication of the EGoT, the information provided by the customer or the service provider can be falsified by a malicious attacker. Therefore, a trust model is necessary to monitor any abnormal activities. This paper describes a distributed trust model system that meets the need of the EGoT. This paper describes methods for evaluating and improving the distributed trust model using standard hypothesis testing metrics such as true positive, false positive, true negative, false negative, equal error rate, and F1 score. Example calculations are shown based on generated sample data.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Trust Model Measurements for the Energy Grid of Things

Information security is essential for the reliable operation of an Energy Grid of Things (EGoT). In addition to basic information security protocols as defined by published standards, there is a need for a monitoring function that measures the trustworthiness of the various actors participating in an EGoT. We describe in this paper the implementation and evaluation of a Distributed Trust Model that was developed specifically for monitoring communication within an EGoT. We then show how the model parameters are set using statistical measures for hypothesis testing.

Energy Grid of Things, EGoT, Smart Grid Security, ↗

A Contextually Supervised Optimization-Based HVAC Load Disaggregation Methodology

This paper presents a novel contextually supervised optimization-based approach for disaggregating heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) loads using smart meter or Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition data. To disaggregate the load into HVAC loads, large and infrequently used loads (LIUL), and base loads, we formulate an optimization problem to minimize a set of five loss terms, consisting of the reconstruction errors of the overall load profile, the ramp rate losses, and three distinct loss functions linked with the HVAC load, base load, and LIUL, respectively. To enhance accuracy, we incorporate two forms of contextual information into the problem formulation. First, we utilize mutual information to estimate HVAC energy consumption. Second, we employ a base load dictionary to constrain HVAC load estimation errors. The obtained HVAC load profiles are fine-tuned by abnormal ramp detection followed by binary hypothesis testing. Here, the proposed method is developed and tested using sub-metered residential and commercial building data. Simulation results show that the proposed method outperforms existing methods across various data resolutions and load aggregation levels, showing excellent transferability and generalizability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

VAINE: Visualization and AI for Natural Experiments

Natural experiments are observational studies where the assignment of treatment conditions to different populations occur by chance ``in the wild''. Researchers from fields such as economics, healthcare, and the social sciences leverage natural experiments to conduct hypothesis testing and causal effect estimation for treatment and outcome variables that would otherwise be costly, infeasible, or unethical. In this paper, we introduce VAINE (Visualization and AI for Natural Experiments), a visual analytics tool for identifying and understanding natural experiments from observational data. We then demonstrate how VAINE can be used to validate causal relationships, estimate average treatment effects, and identify statistical phenomena such as Simpson’s paradox through two use cases.

Guo, Grace↗