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At least 73 records · Page 4

Synthetic Failure Mode Generation for Resilience Analysis and Failure Mechanism Discovery

Traditional risk-based design processes seek to mitigate operational hazards by manually identifying possible faults and corresponding mitigation strategies—a tedious process which critically relies on the designer’s limited knowledge. Resilience-based design, on the other hand, seeks to embody generic hazard-mitigating properties in the system to mitigate unknown hazards, often by modelling the system's response to potential hazardous events. This work adapts this approach to the traditional risk-based design process to synthetically generate hazardous modes, by representing them as a unique combination of internal component health-states which can then be injected and simulated in a model of the system failure dynamics. The design process may then reduce the risk of unknown internal hazards by iteratively mitigating the effects of these modes. The performance of this approach is evaluated in a model of an autonomous rover, where cluster analysis shows that elaborating the space of synthetic faults in the drive system using this approach uncovers a wider range of possible hazardous trajectories and failure consequences within each trajectory. However, this increase in hazard information comes at a high computational expense, highlighting the need for advanced, efficient methods to search and sample the hazard space.

Simulation↗

Lidar-based hazard avoidance for safe landing on Mars

This paper describes the algorithms and the models that comprise a scanning lidar-based hazard avoidance simulation including a terrain generator, a lidar model, hazard avoidance algorithms and powered landing guidance algorithms.

hazard↗

Remote moisture-content balance

Automatic balance monitors wetness of wood samples to determine forest fire hazards. Fuel model consists of four wooden dowels that will absorb precipitation moisture and humidity at rate related to moisture absorption by forest wood. Model wetness is determined from weight changes as monitored by electronic balance.

Blomseth, R. A.↗

Experiments to Determine Whether Recursive Partitioning (CART) or an Artificial Neural Network Overcomes Theoretical Limitations of Cox Proportional Hazards Regression

New computationally intensive tools for medical survival analyses include recursive partitioning (also called CART) and artificial neural networks. A challenge that remains is to better understand the behavior of these techniques in effort to know when they will be effective tools. Theoretically they may overcome limitations of the traditional multivariable survival technique, the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Experiments were designed to test whether the new tools would, in practice, overcome these limitations. Two datasets in which theory suggests CART and the neural network should outperform the Cox model were selected. The first was a published leukemia dataset manipulated to have a strong interaction that CART should detect. The second was a published cirrhosis dataset with pronounced nonlinear effects that a neural network should fit. Repeated sampling of 50 training and testing subsets was applied to each technique. The concordance index C was calculated as a measure of predictive accuracy by each technique on the testing dataset. In the interaction dataset, CART outperformed Cox (P less than 0.05) with a C improvement of 0.1 (95% Cl, 0.08 to 0.12). In the nonlinear dataset, the neural network outperformed the Cox model (P less than 0.05), but by a very slight amount (0.015). As predicted by theory, CART and the neural network were able to overcome limitations of the Cox model. Experiments like these are important to increase our understanding of when one of these new techniques will outperform the standard Cox model. Further research is necessary to predict which technique will do best a priori and to assess the magnitude of superiority.

Kattan, Michael W.↗

Measuring the Performance and Intelligence of Systems: Proceedings of the 2002 PerMIS Workshop

Contents include the following: Performance Metrics; Performance of Multiple Agents; Performance of Mobility Systems; Performance of Planning Systems; General Discussion Panel 1; Uncertainty of Representation I; Performance of Robots in Hazardous Domains; Modeling Intelligence; Modeling of Mind; Measuring Intelligence; Grouping: A Core Procedure of Intelligence; Uncertainty in Representation II; Towards Universal Planning/Control Systems.

Messina, E. R.↗

Satellite Detection of the Convection Generated Stresses in Earth

We review research developments on satellite detection of the convection generated stresses in the Earth for seismic hazard assessment and Earth resource survey. Particular emphasis is laid upon recent progress and results of stress calculations from which the origin and evolution of the tectonic features on Earth's surface can be scientifically addressed. An important aspect of the recent research development in tectonic stresses relative to earthquakes is the implications for earthquake forecasting and prediction. We have demonstrated that earthquakes occur on the ring of fire around the Pacific in response to the tectonic stresses induced by mantle convection. We propose a systematic global assessment of the seismic hazard based on variations of tectonic stresses in the Earth as observed by satellites. This space geodynamic approach for assessing the seismic hazard is unique in that it can pinpoint the triggering stresses for large earthquakes without ambiguities of geological structures, fault geometries, and other tectonic properties. Also, it is distinct from the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment models in the literature, which are based only on extrapolations of available earthquake data.

Liu, Han-Shou↗

Fractal analysis of heart rate dynamics as a predictor of mortality in patients with depressed left ventricular function after acute myocardial infarction. TRACE Investigators. TRAndolapril Cardiac Evaluation

A number of new methods have been recently developed to quantify complex heart rate (HR) dynamics based on nonlinear and fractal analysis, but their value in risk stratification has not been evaluated. This study was designed to determine whether selected new dynamic analysis methods of HR variability predict mortality in patients with depressed left ventricular (LV) function after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Traditional time- and frequency-domain HR variability indexes along with short-term fractal-like correlation properties of RR intervals (exponent alpha) and power-law scaling (exponent beta) were studied in 159 patients with depressed LV function (ejection fraction <35%) after an AMI. By the end of 4-year follow-up, 72 patients (45%) had died and 87 (55%) were still alive. Short-term scaling exponent alpha (1.07 +/- 0.26 vs 0.90 +/- 0.26, p <0.001) and power-law slope beta (-1.35 +/- 0.23 vs -1.44 +/- 0.25, p <0.05) differed between survivors and those who died, but none of the traditional HR variability measures differed between these groups. Among all analyzed variables, reduced scaling exponent alpha (<0.85) was the best univariable predictor of mortality (relative risk 3.17, 95% confidence interval 1.96 to 5.15, p <0.0001), with positive and negative predictive accuracies of 65% and 86%, respectively. In the multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis, mortality was independently predicted by the reduced exponent alpha (p <0.001) after adjustment for several clinical variables and LV function. A short-term fractal-like scaling exponent was the most powerful HR variability index in predicting mortality in patients with depressed LV function. Reduction in fractal correlation properties implies more random short-term HR dynamics in patients with increased risk of death after AMI.

Non-NASA Center↗

Determinants of Time to Fatigue during Non-Motorized Treadmill Exercise

Treadmill exercise is commonly used for aerobic and anaerobic conditioning. During non-motorized treadmill exercise, the subject must provide the power necessary to drive the treadmill belt. The purpose of this study was to determine what factors affected the time to fatigue on a pair of non-motorized treadmills. Twenty subjects (10 males/10 females) attempted to complete five minutes of locomotion during separate trials at 3.22, 4.83, 6.44, 8.05, 9.66, and 11.27 km (raised dot) h(sup -1). Total exercise time (less than or equal to 5 min) was recorded. Exercise time was converted to the amount of 15 second intervals completed. Peak oxygen uptake (VO2) was measured using a graded exercise test on a standard treadmill, and anthropometric measures were collected from each subject before entering into the study. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to determine significant predictive factors in a multivariate analysis. Non-motorized treadmill speed and absolute peak VO2 were found to be significant predictors of exercise time, but there was no effect of anthropometric characteristics. Gender was found to be a predictor of treadmill time, but this was likely due to a higher peak VO2 in males than in females. These results were not affected by the type of treadmill tested in this study. Coaches and therapists should consider the cardiovascular fitness of an athlete or client when prescribing target speed since these factors are related to the total exercise time than can be achieved on a non-motorized treadmill.

DeWitt, John K.↗

Evolution of the Lunar Receiving Laboratory to the Astromaterial Sample Curation Facility: Technical Tensions Between Containment and Cleanliness, Between Particulate and Organic Cleanliness

The Lunar Receiving Laboratory (LRL) was planned and constructed in the 1960s to support the Apollo program in the context of landing on the Moon and safely returning humans. The enduring science return from that effort is a result of careful curation of planetary materials. Technical decisions for the first facility included sample handling environment (vacuum vs inert gas), and instruments for making basic sample assessment, but the most difficult decision, and most visible, was stringent biosafety vs ultra-clean sample handling. Biosafety required handling of samples in negative pressure gloveboxes and rooms for containment and use of sterilizing protocols and animal/plant models for hazard assessment. Ultra-clean sample handling worked best in positive pressure nitrogen environment gloveboxes in positive pressure rooms, using cleanable tools of tightly controlled composition. The requirements for these two objectives were so different, that the solution was to design and build a new facility for specific purpose of preserving the scientific integrity of the samples. The resulting Lunar Curatorial Facility was designed and constructed, from 1972-1979, with advice and oversight by a very active committee comprised of lunar sample scientists. The high precision analyses required for planetary science are enabled by stringent contamination control of trace elements in the materials and protocols of construction (e.g., trace element screening for paint and flooring materials) and the equipment used in sample handling and storage. As other astromaterials, especially small particles and atoms, were added to the collections curated, the technical tension between particulate cleanliness and organic cleanliness was addressed in more detail. Techniques for minimizing particulate contamination in sample handling environments use high efficiency air filtering techniques typically requiring organic sealants which offgas. Protocols for reducing adventitious carbon on sample handling surfaces often generate particles. Further work is needed to achieve both minimal particulate and adventitious carbon contamination. This paper will discuss these facility topics and others in the historical context of nearly 50 years' curation experience for lunar rocks and regolith, meteorites, cosmic dust, comet particles, solar wind atoms, and asteroid particles at Johnson Space Center.

Allton, J. H.↗

Using Qualitative Hazard Analysis to Guide Quantitative Safety Analysis

Quantitative methods can be beneficial in many types of safety investigations. However, there are many difficulties in using quantitative m ethods. Far example, there may be little relevant data available. This paper proposes a framework for using quantitative hazard analysis to prioritize hazard scenarios most suitable for quantitative mziysis. The framework first categorizes hazard scenarios by severity and likelihood. We then propose another metric "modeling difficulty" that desc ribes the complexity in modeling a given hazard scenario quantitatively. The combined metrics of severity, likelihood, and modeling difficu lty help to prioritize hazard scenarios for which quantitative analys is should be applied. We have applied this methodology to proposed concepts of operations for reduced wake separation for airplane operatio ns at closely spaced parallel runways.

Shortle, J. F.↗

Radiation Belt and Plasma Model Requirements

Contents include the following: Radiation belt and plasma model environment. Environment hazards for systems and humans. Need for new models. How models are used. Model requirements. How can space weather community help?

Barth, Janet L.↗

Understanding Resilience Optimization Architectures With an Optimization Problem Repository

Optimizing a system’s resilience can be challenging, especially when it involves considering both the inherent resilience of a robust design and the active resilience of a health management system to a set of computationally-expensive hazard simulations. While prior work has developed specialized architectures to effectively and efficiently solve combined design and resilience optimization problems, the comparison of these architectures has been limited to a single case study. To further study resilience optimization formulations, this work develops a problem repository which includes previously-developed resilience optimization problems and additional problems presented in this work: a notional system resilience model, a pandemic response model, and a cooling tank hazard prevention model. This work then uses models in the repository at large to understand the characteristics of resilience optimization problems and study the applicability of optimization architectures and decomposition strategies. Based on the comparisons in the repository, applying an optimization architecture effectively requires understanding the alignment and coupling relationships between the design and resilience models, as well as the efficiency characteristics of the algorithms. While alignment determines the necessity of a surrogate of resilience cost in the upper-level design problem, coupling determines the overall applicability of a sequential, alternating, or bilevel structure. Additionally, the application of decomposition strategies is dependent on there being limited interactions between variable sets, which often does not hold when a resilience policy is parameterized in terms of actions to take in hazardous model states rather than specific given scenarios.

Resilience↗

Low speed wind tunnel investigation of span load alteration, forward-located spoilers, and splines as trailing-vortex-hazard alleviation devices on a transport aircraft model

The effectiveness of a forward-located spoiler, a spline, and span load alteration due to a flap configuration change as trailing-vortex-hazard alleviation methods was investigated. For the transport aircraft model in the normal approach configuration, the results indicate that either a forward-located spoiler or a spline is effective in reducing the trailing-vortex hazard. The results also indicate that large changes in span loading, due to retraction of the outboard flap, may be an effective method of reducing the trailing-vortex hazard.

Croom, D. R.↗

NASA wake vortex research

NASA is conducting research that will enable safe improvements in the capacity of the nation's air transportation system. The wake-vortex hazard is a factor in establishing the minimum safe spacing between aircraft during landing and takeoff operations and, thus, impacts airport capacity. The ability to accurately model the wake hazard and determine safe separation distances for a wide range of aircraft and operational scenarios may provide the basis for significant increases in airport capacity. Current and planned NASA research is described which is focused on increasing airport capacity by safely reducing wake-hazard-imposed aircraft separations through advances in a number of technologies including vortex motion and decay prediction, vortex encounter modeling, wake-vortex hazard characterization, and in situ flow sensing.

Stough, H. P., III↗