SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “greenhouse warming”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Hydrology controls thermokarst and alters carbon cycling and methane emissions in peatlands near the southern limit of permafrost

Permafrost peatlands store vast amounts of frozen carbon across northern landscapes. When ground ice melts, surface subsidence produces thermokarst landforms that expand wetlands at the edges of permafrost plateaus. Thermokarst represents an accelerating climate feedback, but uncertainties remain about how ground ice, hydrology, and vegetation interact to shape landscape change and carbon fluxes. We extended the process-based model ecosys to simulate thermokarst dynamics in laterally coupled 2D transects at a well-characterized boreal peatland site in Canada’s Northwest Territories. After benchmarking against site observations, we varied ground ice content and hydrologic boundary conditions across ranges typical near the southern permafrost limit. Simulations revealed distinct degradation regimes governed by the elevation difference between the frost table and the external water table. Rates of lateral retreat, the thaw-driven encroachment of wetlands into adjacent plateaus, ranged from 0 to >2 m yr −1 under identical weather forcing, consistent with observations and highlighting the strong role of WT and ground ice. Simulated vegetation dynamics indicate that black spruce mortality cannot be explained by anoxia alone, pointing to additional stressors such as root damage, pathogens, or physical destabilization. Despite large hydrologic shifts, net ecosystem CO 2 exchange remained a slight sink after collapse, while methane (CH 4 ) emissions rose by one to two orders of magnitude. As a result, lateral retreat substantially increases the greenhouse warming potential of permafrost peatlands (1.7 million km 2 in area), with simulated emissions of 0.1–10 Mt CO 2 -eq decade −1 depending on hydrology and retreat rates. These results underscore the need to account for both ground ice and hydrologic dynamics when assessing thermokarst-driven climate feedbacks.

carbon cycling↗

DOE OSTI2020

Observed Sensitivity of Low-Cloud Radiative Effects to Meteorological Perturbations over the Global Oceans

Understanding how marine low clouds and their radiative effects respond to changing meteorological conditions is crucial to constrain low-cloud feedbacks to greenhouse warming and internal climate variability. In this paper, we use observations to quantify the low-cloud radiative response to meteorological perturbations over the global oceans to shed light on physical processes governing low-cloud and planetary radiation budget variability in different climate regimes. We assess the independent effect of perturbations in sea surface temperature, estimated inversion strength, horizontal surface temperature advection, 700-hPa relative humidity, 700-hPa vertical velocity, and near-surface wind speed. Stronger inversions and stronger cold advection greatly enhance low-level cloudiness and planetary albedo in eastern ocean stratocumulus and midlatitude regimes. Warming of the sea surface drives pronounced reductions of eastern ocean stratocumulus cloud amount and optical depth, and hence reflectivity, but has a weaker and more variable impact on low clouds in the tropics and middle latitudes. By reducing entrainment drying, higher free-tropospheric relative humidity enhances low-level cloudiness. At low latitudes, where cold advection destabilizes the boundary layer, stronger winds enhance low-level cloudiness; by contrast, wind speed variations have weak influence at midlatitudes where warm advection frequently stabilizes the marine boundary layer, thus inhibiting vertical mixing. These observational constraints provide a framework for understanding and evaluating marine low-cloud feedbacks and their simulation by models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessing Global Ocean Circulation Sensitivity to Changes in Antarctic Ice Discharge

The principal goal of this research is to assess how projected increases in meltwater discharge and iceberg calving from the Antarctic Ice Sheet will impact climate in the next 250 years. In short, the sensitivity of the global ocean circulation and climate, and in particular the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), to large increases in iceberg calving and meltwater discharges to the Southern Ocean are poorly understood. The requirement to investigate this topic is heightened by growing evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is vulnerable to rapid retreat and collapse through marine-ice-sheet-instability (MISI) on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. Future model simulations of the AIS show the potential for rapid ice sheet retreat in the next 50 – 300 years, with such a collapse associated with the discharge of enormous volumes of ice and meltwater to the Southern Ocean. This project uses a combination of an ice sheet/shelf model and a fully coupled (ocean-atmosphere-seaice) model (CESM 1.2) to explore the sensitive of global climate to future changes in runoff from the Antarctic continent under future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios IPCC RCP4.5 and 8.5. Overall, accounting for Antarctic meltwater reduces the projected global mean anthropogenic greenhouse warming by up to 2 deg C. during peak WAIS collapse and by ~1 deg. for most of the simulation. In addition, the increased meltwater contribution raises sub-surface ocean temperatures at the Antarctic ice sheet margin by more than 1ºC, such that the ice shelf basal melt rates increase beyond those currently projected. In contrast, the model predicts a strong cooling of both the surface air and ocean temperatures over the Southern Ocean that results in a massive expansion and thickening of the perennial sea-ice. The slow-down in anthropogenic warming also results in the onset of ice-free conditions in the Arctic being delayed in the model by several decades, and the projected slowdown in the AMOC to reduce.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Transforming ESM Physical Parameterization Development Using Machine Learning Trained on Global Cloud-Resolving Models and Process Observations

ESMs robustly predict that 21st century greenhouse warming will slowly increase global mean precipitation, rapidly increase extreme precipitation, and increase subtropical drought. ESMs agree less about precipitation trends and extremes over particular land regions critical to human societies, e. g. in semi-arid regions such as California or the Sahel, or in wetter climates prone to monsoonal rainfall (e. g. southeast Asia) or to tropical cyclones and flooding from mesoscale convective systems (e. g. the southeastern U.S.) Deep convective parameterizations and poor representation of orography and complex vegetated land surfaces contribute to this inter-model spread; clouds, aerosols and sea-surface temperature biases are also key. Reducing regional precipitation projection uncertainty has enormous planning value for water supplies, land use, wildfire, hydropower, flood control, etc. IPCC-class ESMs are making painfully slow progress on this.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1981

Greenhouse effect of trace gases, 1970-1980

Increased abundances were measured for several trace atmospheric gases in the decade 1970-1980. The equilibrium greenhouse warming for the measured increments of CH4, chlorofluorocarbons and N2O is between 50% and 100% of the equilibrium warming for the measured increase of atmospheric CO2 during the same 10 years. The combined warming of CO2 and trace gases should exceed natural global temperature variability in the 1980's and cause the global mean temperature to rise above the maximum of the late 1930's.

Lacis, A.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Stability of ammonia in the primitive terrestrial atmosphere

The rate at which ammonia would have been destroyed in the earth's atmosphere under assumed NH3 mixing ratio conditions of 10 to the -8th to 0.0001 is calculated by a one-dimensional photochemical model, and the destruction rates are compared with possible biotic and abiotic ammonia sources. It is found that, while the mixing ratio of 10 to the -8th needed for the evolution of life could have been maintained by abiotic sources, the value of 0.00001 needed for the production of significant greenhouse warming could not have been sustained abiotically. The increase of atmospheric ammonia due to biological activities during the Archean is also considered lower than the level required for the generation of measurable thermal effects.

Kasting, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Absolute band strengths of halocarbons F-11 and F-12 in the 8- to 16-micron region

The infrared strengths of three vibrational band systems of halocarbon F-11 and four vibrational band systems of halocarbon F-12 in the 'atmospheric window' between 8 and 16 microns were measured at 296 + or - 1 K using a Fourier transform infrared spectrometer. These results were obtained at a maximum instrumental resolution of 0.06/cm. The measurements of the total infrared band strengths for F-11 and F-12 would indicate approximately 17% and 5% greater absorbance, respectively, than those strengths used in recent greenhouse warming calculations by Ramanathan (1975), Wang et al. (1976), and Lacis et al. (1981), and consequently, a corresponding increase in the possible atmospheric warming effect by these halocarbons.

Kagann, R. H.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Possible precipitation of ice at low latitudes of Mars during periods of high obliquity

Most of the old cratered highlands of Mars are dissected by branching river valleys that appear to have been cut by running water, yet liquid water is unstable everywhere on the Martian surface. In the equatorial region, where most of the valleys are observed, even ice is unstable. It has been suggested, therefore, that Mars had an early denser atmosphere with sufficient greenhouse warming to allow the existence of liquid water. Here, it is suggested instead that during periods of very high obliquities, ice could accumulate at low latitudes as a result of sustained sublimation of ice from the poles and transport of the water vapor equatorwards. At low latitudes, the water vapor would saturate the atmosphere and condense onto the surface, where it would accumulate until lower obliquities prevailed. The mechanism is efficient only at the very high obliquities that occurred before formation of Tharsis very early in the planet's history, but limited equatorial ice accumulation could also have occurred at the highest obliquities during the rest of the planet's history. Partial melting of the ice could have provided runoff to form the channels or replenish the groundwater system.

Jakosky, B. M.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Effect of the greenhouse gases (CO2, H2O, SO2) on Martian paleoclimate

There is general agreement that certain surface features on Mars are indicative of the presence of liquid water at various times in the geologic past. In particular, the valley networks are difficult to explain by a mechanism other than the flow of liquid water. It has been suggested in several studies that a thick CO2 atmosphere on Mars early in its history could have provided a greenhouse warming that would have allowed the flow of water either on the surface or just below the surface. However, this effect was examined with a detailed radiation model, and it was found that if reduced solar luminosity early in the history of the solar system is taken into account, even three bars of CO2 will not provide sufficient greeenhouse warming. The addition of water vapor and sulflur dioxide (both plausible gases that may have been emitted by Martian volcanoes) to the atmosphere also fail to warm the surface above 273 K for reduced solar luminosity conditions. The increase in temperature may be large enough, however, for the formation of these features by brines.

Postawko, S. E.↗

NASA NTRS1986

World-wide increase in tropospheric methane, 1978-1983

Techniques used to assess methane concentration in the troposphere are described, and data obtained during the period from 1978 to 1983 are presented in detail. Tropospheric methane concentrations in remote locations averaged a yearly world-wide increase of 0.018 + or - 0.002 parts per million by volume (ppmv). Average world-wide tropospheric concentration of methane in dry air was 1.625 ppmv at the end of 1983 measured against an NBS standard certified as 0.97 ppmv. Contributing to this steady increase in methane concentration are increases in the source strengths from cattle and rice fields, which in turn result from CO, CH4 and HO coupling. Among the physical and chemical effects is an increase in greenhouse warming of about 0.04 C per decade.

Blake, D. R.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Global climate changes as forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies three-dimensional model

The global climate effects of time-dependent atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variations are simulated by NASA-Goddard's three-dimensional climate model II, which possesses 8 x 10-deg horizontal resolution, for the cases of a 100-year control run and three different atmospheric composition scenarios in which trace gas growth is respectively a continuation of current exponential trends, a reduced linear growth, and a rapid curtailment of emissions due to which net climate forcing no longer increases after the year 2000. The experiments begin in 1958, run to the present, and encompass measured or estimated changes in CO2, CH4, N2O, chlorofluorocarbons, and stratospheric aerosols. It is shown that the greenhouse warming effect may be clearly identifiable in the 1990s.

Hansen, J.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Absorption of the Martian regolith: Specific surface area and missing CO(sub 2)

For most estimates of available regolith and initial degassed CO(sub 2) inventories, it appears that any initial inventory must have been lost to space or incorporated into carbonates. Most estimates of the total available degassed CO(sub 2) inventory are only marginally sufficient to allow for a major early greenhouse effect. It is suggested that the requirements for greenhouse warming to produce old dessicated terrain would be greatly lessened if groundwater brines rather than rainfall were involved and if a higher internal gradient were involved to raise the water (brine) table, leading to more frequent sapping.

Zent, A. P.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Inhomogeneities of stratocumulus liquid water

There is a growing body of observational evidence on inhomogeneous cloud structure, most recently from the extensive measurements of the FIRE field program. Knowledge of cloud structure is important because it strongly influences the cloud radiative properties, one of the major factors in determining the global energy balance. Current atmospheric circulation models use plane-parallel radiation, so that the liquid water in each gridbox is assumed to be uniform, which gives an unrealistically large albedo. In reality cloud liquid water occupies only a subset of each gridbox, greatly reducing the mean albedo. If future climate models are to treat the hydrological cycle in a manner consistent with energy balance, a better treatment of cloud liquid is needed. FIRE concentrated upon two cloud types of special interest: cirrus and marine stratocumulus. Cirrus tend to be high and optically thin, thus reducing the effective radiative temperature without increasing the albedo significantly, leading to an enhanced greenhouse heating. In contrast, marine stratocumulus are low and optically thick, thus producing a large increase in reflected radiation with a small change in emitted radiation, giving a net cooling which could potentially mitigate the expected greenhouse warming. The FIRE measurements in California stratocumulus during June and July of 1987 show variations in cloud liquid water on all scales. Such variations are associated with inhomogeneous entrainment, in which entrained dry air, rather than mixing uniformly with cloudy air, remains intact in blobs of all sizes, which decay only slowly by invasion of cloudy air. Two important stratocumulus observations are described, followed by a simple fractal model which reproduces these properties, and finally, the model radiative properties are discussed.

Cahalan, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Cirrus clouds and climate feedback: Is the sky falling and should we go tell the king

It is widely believed that thin cirrus clouds act to enhance the greenhouse effect owing to a particular combination of their optical properties. It is demonstrated how this effect is perhaps based on inadequate resolution of the physics of cirrus clouds and that the more likely impact of cirrus clouds to climate change remains somewhat elusive. These conclusions are developed within the context of a specific feedback mechanism incorporated into a simple mechanistic climate model. A specific scientific question addressed is whether or not the observed relationship between the ice water content and temperature of cirrus provides any significant feedback to the CO2 greenhouse warming. A related question also examined concerns the specific role of cloud microphysics and radiation in this feedback. This raises several pertinent issues about the understanding of cirrus clouds and their likely role in climate change as there presently exists a considerable uncertainty about the microphysics of these clouds (size and shape of ice crystals) and their radiative influences.

Stephens, Graeme L.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Observations from the NASA multisatellite Earth Radiation Budget Experiment

Satellite measurements from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) are providing new insights into the earth radiation balance. The ERBE results indicate that clouds have more of a cooling effect than a greenhouse warming effect on the earth-atmosphere system. The largest net-radiation cooling appears over the midlatitude oceans in the summer hemisphere where maximum sunlight and maximum cloud cover occur. The ERBE data also have shown that many areas of the earth exhibit significant diurnal variations in both longwave and shortwave radiation. In order to assess future global climatic changes, a follow-on experiment to ERBE, called Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES), has been selected to fly on the Earth Observing System in the the 1990's.

Harrison, Edwin F.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Global three-dimensional model calculations of the budgets and present-day atmospheric lifetimes of CF2ClCFCl2 (CFC-113) and CHClF2 (CFC-22)

The annual percentage increases in concentrations of the chlorofluorocarbons CFC-113 (an industrial solvent) and CFC-22 (a refrigerant) are the highest among major chlorofluorocarbons in the atmosphere today. The present-day atmospheric lifetimes for these species are computed using a global three-dimensional dynamical-chemical model. The present-day lifetimes of both are long (15.5 years for CFC-22 and 136 or 195 years for CFC-113, depending on assumed O2 absorption cross sections), underscoring the need to decrease their emissions in order to minimize their future role in ozone destruction and greenhouse warming.

Golombek, Amram↗

NASA NTRS1990

Precise monitoring of global temperature trends from satellites

Passive microwave radiometry from satellites provides more precise atmospheric temperature information than that obtained from the relatively sparse distribution of thermometers over the earth's surface. Accurate global atmospheric temperature estimates are needed for detection of possible greenhouse warming, evaluation of computer models of climate change, and for understanding important factors in the climate system. Analysis of the first 10 years (1979 to 1988) of satellite measurements of lower atmospheric temperature changes reveals a monthly precision of 0.01 C, large temperature variability on time scales from weeks to several years, but no obvious trend for the 10-year period. The warmest years, in descending order, were 1987, 1988, 1983, and 1980. The years 1984, 1985, and 1986 were the coolest.

Spencer, Roy W.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Potential evapotranspiration and the likelihood of future drought

The possibility that the greenhouse warming predicted by the GISS general-circulation model and other GCMs could lead to severe droughts is investigated by means of numerical simulations, with a focus on the role of potential evapotranspiration E(P). The relationships between precipitation (P), E(P), soil moisture, and vegetation changes in GCMs are discussed; the empirically derived Palmer drought-intensity index and a new supply-demand index (SDDI) based on changes in P - E(P) are described; and simulation results for the period 1960-2060 are presented in extensive tables, graphs, and computer-generated color maps. Simulations with both drought indices predict increasing drought frequency for the U.S., with effects already apparent in the 1990s and a 50-percent frequency of severe droughts by the 2050s. Analyses of arid periods during the Mesozoic and Cenozoic are shown to support the use of the SDDI in GCM drought prediction.

Rind, D.↗