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At least 73 records · Page 4

The June 2012 North American Derecho: A Testbed for Evaluating Regional and Global Climate Modeling Systems at Cloud‐Resolving Scales

Abstract In this paper, we introduce a testbed for evaluating and comparing climate modeling systems at cloud resolving scales using hindcasts of the June 2012 North American derecho. To demonstrate its utility for model intercomparison, the testbed is applied to two models: the regionally‐refined Simple Cloud‐Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) at 6.5, 3.25 and 1.625 km grid spacing and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with 3.2 and 1.6 km grid spacing. We find the simulation results to be highly sensitive to the initial conditions (ICs), initialization time, and model configurations, with ICs from the Rapid Refresh producing the best simulation. Significant improvement is identified in both models as horizontal grid spacing is refined. While a propagation delay of approximately 2 hr is found in both models, SCREAM at 1.625 km simulates the observed bow echo structure of the derecho well and predicts strong surface gusts that exceed 30 m/s. In comparison, WRF has difficulty producing surface wind over 25 m/s, with wind gusts in WRF 42%–46% lower than in SCREAM. However, WRF has a lower bias in simulating cloud top temperature and extent, but overestimates precipitation intensity. Both models reproduce the observed outgoing longwave radiation spatial patterns well (Pearson correlation >0.88), but, compared with NEXRAD observations, simulate generally larger areas of composite radar reflectivity >40 dBZ and underestimate the precipitating area by ∼47%.

2012 North American derecho↗

Improved ground hydrology calculations for global climate models (GCMs) - Soil water movement and evapotranspiration

A physically based ground hydrology model is presented that includes the processes of transpiration, evaporation from intercepted precipitation and dew, evaporation from bare soil, infiltration, soil water flow, and runoff. Data from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies GCM were used as inputs for off-line tests of the model in four 8 x 10 deg regions, including Brazil, Sahel, Sahara, and India. Soil and vegetation input parameters were caculated as area-weighted means over the 8 x 10 deg gridbox; the resulting hydrological quantities were compared to ground hydrology model calculations performed on the 1 x 1 deg cells which comprise the 8 x 10 deg gridbox. Results show that the compositing procedure worked well except in the Sahel, where low soil water levels and a heterogeneous land surface produce high variability in hydrological quantities; for that region, a resolution better than 8 x 10 deg is needed.

Abramopoulos, F.↗

Effects of cumulus entrainment and multiple cloud types on a January global climate model simulation

An improved version of the GISS Model II cumulus parameterization designed for long-term climate integrations is used to study the effects of entrainment and multiple cloud types on the January climate simulation. Instead of prescribing convective mass as a fixed fraction of the cloud base grid-box mass, it is calculated based on the closure assumption that the cumulus convection restores the atmosphere to a neutral moist convective state at cloud base. This change alone significantly improves the distribution of precipitation, convective mass exchanges, and frequencies in the January climate. The vertical structure of the tropical atmosphere exhibits quasi-equilibrium behavior when this closure is used, even though there is no explicit constraint applied above cloud base.

Yao, Mao-Sung↗

The Aggregate Representation of Terrestrial Land Covers Within Global Climate Models (GCM)

This project had four initial objectives: (1) to create a realistic coupled surface-atmosphere model to investigate the aggregate description of heterogeneous surfaces; (2) to develop a simple heuristic model of surface-atmosphere interactions; (3) using the above models, to test aggregation rules for a variety of realistic cover and meteorological conditions; and (4) to reconcile biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme (BATS) land covers with those that can be recognized from space; Our progress in meeting these objectives can be summarized as follows. Objective 1: The first objective was achieved in the first year of the project by coupling the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) with a proven two-dimensional model of the atmospheric boundary layer. The resulting model, BATS-ABL, is described in detail in a Masters thesis and reported in a paper in the Journal of Hydrology Objective 2: The potential value of the heuristic model was re-evaluated early in the project and a decision was made to focus subsequent research around modeling studies with the BATS-ABL model. The value of using such coupled surface-atmosphere models in this research area was further confirmed by the success of the Tucson Aggregation Workshop. Objective 3: There was excellent progress in using the BATS-ABL model to test aggregation rules for a variety of realistic covers. The foci of attention have been the site of the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiment (FIFE) in Kansas and one of the study sites of the Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observational Study (ABRACOS) near the city of Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. These two sites were selected because of the ready availability of relevant field data to validate and initiate the BATS-ABL model. The results of these tests are given in a Masters thesis, and reported in two papers. Objective 4: Progress far exceeded original expectations not only in reconciling BATS land covers with those that can be recognized from space, but also in then applying remotely-sensed land cover data to map aggregate values of BATS parameters for heterogeneous covers and interpreting these parameters in terms of surface-atmosphere exchanges.

Shuttleworth, W. James↗

Parameterization of Cloud Droplet Formation in Global Climate Models

An aerosol activation parameterization has been developed based on a generalized representation of aerosol size and composition within the framework of an ascending adiabatic parcel; this allows for parameterizing the activation of chemically complex aerosol with an arbitrary size distribution and mixing state. The new parameterization introduces the concept of"population splitting", in which the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) that form droplets are treated as two separate populations; those that have a size close to their critical diameter and those that do not.Explicit consideration of kinetic limitations of droplet growth is introduced. Our treatment of the activation process unravels much of its complexity. As a result of this, a substantial number of conditions of droplet formation can be treated completely free of empirical information or correlations; there are, however, some conditions of droplet activation for which an empirically derived correlation is utilized. Predictions of the parameterization are compared against extensive cloud parcel model simu;lations for a variety of aerosol activation conditions that cover a wide range of chemical variability and CCN concentrations. The parameterization tracks the parcel model simulations closely and robustly. The parameterization presented here is intended to allow for a comprehensive assessment of the aerosol indirect effect in general circulation models.

Nenes, A.↗

Downscaling a Global Climate Model to Simulate Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Regional and Urban Air Quality

Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with WRF to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the continental United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12km by 12km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major U.S. cities. The high resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the U.S. during fall (Western U.S., Texas, Northeastern, and Southeastern U.S), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the U.S. which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

meteorological parameters↗

The Response of the South Asian Summer Monsoon Circulation to Intensified Irrigation in Global Climate Model Simulations

Agricultural intensification in South Asia has resulted in the expansion and intensification of surface irrigation over the twentieth century. The resulting changes to the surface energy balance could affect the temperature contrasts between the South Asian land surface and the equatorial Indian Ocean, potentially altering the South Asian Summer Monsoon (SASM) circulation. Prior studies have noted apparent declines in the monsoon intensity over the twentieth century and have focused on how altered surface energy balances impact the SASM rainfall distribution. Here, we use the coupled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R general circulation model to investigate the impact of intensifying irrigation on the large-scale SASM circulation over the twentieth century, including how the effect of irrigation compares to the impact of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. We force our simulations with time-varying, historical estimates of irrigation, both alone and with twentieth century GHGs and other forcings. In the irrigation only experiment, irrigation rates correlate strongly with lower and upper level temperature contrasts between the Indian sub-continent and the Indian Ocean (Pearson's r = -0.66 and r = -0.46, respectively), important quantities that control the strength of the SASM circulation. When GHG forcing is included, these correlations strengthen: r = -0.72 and r = -0.47 for lower and upper level temperature contrasts, respectively. Under irrigated conditions, the mean SASM intensity in the model decreases only slightly and insignificantly. However, in the simulation with irrigation and GHG forcing, inter-annual variability of the SASM circulation decreases by *40 %, consistent with trends in the reanalysis products. This suggests that the inclusion of irrigation may be necessary to accurately simulate the historical trends and variability of the SASM system over the last 50 years. These findings suggest that intensifying irrigation, in concert with increased GHG forcing, is capable of reducing the variability of the simulated SASM circulation and altering the regional moisture transport by limiting the surface warming and reducing land-sea temperature gradients.

amplification↗

Correlation Between Soil Moisture and Dust Emissions: An Investigation for Global Climate Modeling

This work is using the newly available NASA SMAP soil moisture measurement data to evaluate its impact on the atmospheric dust emissions. Dust is an important component of atmospheric aerosols, which affects both climate and air quality. In this work, we focused on semi-desert regions, where dust emissions show seasonal variations due to soil moisture changes, i.e. in Sahel of Africa. We first identified three Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites in the Sahel (IER_Cinzana, Banizoumbou, and Zinder_Airport). We then utilized measurements of aerosol optical depth (AOD), fine mode fraction, size distribution, and single-scattering albedo and its wave-length dependence to select dust plumes from the available measurements We matched the latitude and longitude of the AERONET station to the corresponding SMAP data cell in the years 2015 and 2016, and calculated their correlation coefficient. Additionally, we looked at the correlation coefficient with a three-day and a five-day shift to check the impact of soil moisture on dust plumes with some time delay. Due to the arid nature of Banizoumbou and Zinder_Airport, no correlation was found to exist between local soil moisture and dust aerosol load. While IER_Cinzana had soil moisture levels above the satellite threshold of 0.02cm3/cm3, R-value approaching zero indicated no presence of a correlation. On the other hand, Ilorin demonstrated a significant negative correlation between aerosol optical depth and soil moisture. When isolating the analysis to Ilorin's dry season, a negative correlation of -0.593 was the largest dust-isolated R-value recorded, suggesting that soil moisture is driven the dust emission in this semi-desert region during transitional season.

climate↗

Analyzing Seasonal Forcing Mechanisms of the Martian Polar Warming with the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model

The meridional transport of heat, momentum, water, dust, trace species and gases is critical for the control of Mars’ climate. Though the nature and structure of the mean meridional circulation has been previously studied, questions remain regarding the seasonal forcing mechanisms, and the implications on the combined thermal and dynamical response for Mars’ climate. A useful diagnostic of the mean meridional circulation and transport in the middle atmosphere is polar warming.

Brecht, A. S.↗